[abarro81]

I may be misinterpreting everything incorrectly... but I think Offwidth is thinking big country = more clusters therefore looking a small country which has a small no of deaths is misleading, cos it would have more deaths if it were bigger. Stu is saying that once you've shifted to using the "after 100 deaths" metric then this doesn't matter, you just need to chose your X number of deaths to be large enough to iron out any anomalies in the starting points, then the graphs all end up on top of each other if they're the same growth dynamics (presumably relies on "imported" clusters not arriving after the date of X deaths occuring?). Since growth dynamics tell you how you're managing the outbreak, this is what's important...

[Offwidth]

The only accurate comparable data is deaths, given testing variability.

I still don't agree with you. Assuming similar per capita infections mainly from N Italy, if we had say 100  infected returnees and NL had 25, all randomly distributed in each country, the chances are intial growth would significantly match that ratio. Some of that per capita 'seeding' (if true) might still be significant now. I agree that population data is better for current comparisons as we just don't know.

[Murph]

I thought this was a pretty interesting way of looking at the numbers. You also dont need to take a position on what day to use as your starting point.

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

[Stu Littlefair]

The only accurate comparable data is deaths, given testing variability.

So you want per-capita data, and the only valid data is deaths, but you aren't asking for per-capita death data. What am I missing?

Assuming similar per capita infections mainly from N Italy, if we had say 100  infected returnees and NL had 25, all randomly distributed in each country, the chances are intial growth would significantly match that ratio.

I'm pretty certain this is wrong. This is exactly the scenario I modelled for you in the earlier post. If per-capita infections are the same, and disease dynamics are the same these two outbreaks will progress exactly the same way.

They will only differ if one country has higher population density, or poorer connectivity between urban centres, as examples, but for none of these factors if population size a proxy.

[abarro81]

Offwidth - do you really disagree with Stu, or do you just mean that it's a pain explaining to people on FB that you need to shift the x-axis of a graph to D deaths where D is not too small a number, vs explaining that small countries probably got "seeded" less because they're small. I think my above post still applies, i.e. Stu's maths/model is the way to do it, but it's harder to explain and visualise so less easy to use it to tell people on FB to shut up.

[gme]

Heres an article and some charts from the Dutch media for you mathematicians to look at.

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/04/coronavirus-statistics-show-lockdowns-are-slowing-rate-of-infection/

Last paragraph is the line people keep telling me.

Scientists have warned repeatedly that strict lockdowns make it harder to build up immunity and create the risk of a new spike in cases when people are let out again.

[Oldmanmatt]

Heres an article and some charts from the Dutch media for you mathematicians to look at.

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/04/coronavirus-statistics-show-lockdowns-are-slowing-rate-of-infection/

Last paragraph is the line people keep telling me.

Scientists have warned repeatedly that strict lockdowns make it harder to build up immunity and create the risk of a new spike in cases when people are let out again.

Yup.
But, only if you’re sure you can cope with the first spike.
See NY.

Edit:
Sorry, flippant and too brief and Alex will moan that I didn’t explain what I meant etc etc.

Maybe the Dutch and the Swedes are confident they can cope with the first flush of deaths and critically ill. If not cope, then manage(ish).
I don’t think we had the capacity and even with the lockdown, from outside, it looks like a close run thing.

[abarro81]

Sorry, flippant and too brief and Alex will moan that I didn’t explain what I meant etc etc.

  no, it was quite clear there.

[gme]

Netherlands and Sweden have less ICU beds per capita than the UK.

[Oldmanmatt]

Netherlands and Sweden have less ICU beds per capita than the UK.

Then, if they don’t have some ace up their sleeve (really great, very quick, extra hospital construction etc) it’s going to get messy.
I read this morning about one NY hospital, with a 280 bed capacity, currently treating over 500, all Covid19 (with all other patients shipped out elsewhere) and, actually, already “broken”.
Anecdote, true, but probably indicative and we must be getting close here. Holland will hit it in a few days.

[gme]

I think it all relates to where you are. NHS fine in NE and Temporary hospital that was being built has been put on hold.
London sounds busy but most other places seem ok.

[petejh]

Stu's explanation and model makes sense to me (probably because its correct  ).
Hadn't thought about it that way but of course it's true if you think about how a virus spreads. I.e. a virus has no idea if there are 1 million Cypriots or 100 million Egyptians around it. It spreads at the same rate in both countries given a similar population density.

Thought of another way:
Like water flowing at a constant rate into two containers, the water doesn't know the size of container, it just flows.
If you invented a game where 2 people each has a container, but one is 5 litres and the other is 2 litres in volume.
The goal of the game is to scoop out water with a little scoop as it flows at a constant rate into each container.
The rule is that the water will stop flowing before it ever over spills the top of either container.
The winner of the game is the person who has been more successful in reducing the total volume of water in their container.
So the important measures of 'winning' the game is the rate of flow, and the rate you 'scoop out water' - AKA reduce transmission. Not the ultimate size of the container.
 

Once the virus has reached the upper limit of its spread - or in the game the rate of water flow has exceeded the rate of scooping out for long enough to reach the top of the container - per capita death rate is meaningful as a comparison between 'containers'. Unless as per Mat says small countries 'should' preserve more lives per capita than big countries.

Not sure how that analogy holds for the end comparison of per capita after the event..!

[Stu Littlefair]

Thanks Pete. Nice to have some backup.

I do think people are a bit quick to dismiss Gav’s hopes about the NL. It’s still plausible they’ve got it right, even if only for them. Remember that although their lockdown is less harsh, it did start about 5 days earlier than ours.

If the Imperial College lot are right we should expect to see the NL curve drop below ours slowly (we may already be seeing this, but it’s too soon to tell), but if our social distancing is better our curve should drop more quickly and we’ll end up better off than them.

Just have to wait and see. I imagine we’re not the only ones keeping a close eye on the situation.

[Offwidth]

Offwidth - do you really disagree with Stu, or do you just mean that it's a pain explaining to people on FB

I disagree with the logic of Stu's argument on the intial increases in infections in the UK compared ro NL Does that mean we know who is right? No, but I do think he can't claim initial per capita infections won't be a factor in comparing UK and NL, data.

Instead of thinking countries, think local populations. Assume the Italian ski resorts give the UK 16 separate isolated key infections in urban fast growing environments on day zero and Holland just 4 in similar situations (per capita equal) on the same day. All initial infections act like a mini country following Stu's idea. Assuming all grow at the same rate, and kill the same proportion of those infected, the factor 4 difference moves into the number of deaths and they increase with a ratio that never shifts from 4 until control measures or population limits (or mutation) kicks in. In reality things are way more complicated and the causes difficult to isolate.

If you want to compare the rate of exponential increases in deaths, a shifted plot of total deaths on a log scale is normal with a common start point of a defined number of deaths.  In my assumed scenario the time shift to match at 100 days will be slightly different to Stu's but it will still work for both of our scenarios. The actual exponential rate could depend on all sorts of things: the success of the intial national contact tracing efforts; the acuracy and consistency of defining all  the deaths; the start time of any lockdown;  the natural mixing rates of different cultures in the cities;  the paranoia arising from past experience; the level of state control. Despite all this possible complexity, most EU countries are showing a pretty equal exponential growth rate from a fixed number of deaths.

If you move to per capita normalised deaths you divide the exponential death data by the population. On a log scale that subtracts a different constant but the key gradient of the graph (the rate of exponential rise) remains the same.

[BrutusTheBear]

Friends in Braunton (that surf shop filled village on the way to N. Devon beaches Saunton/Croyde) report that new next door neighbours have arrived from London today... Apparently they are here ‘self isolating’, they went for a surf this afternoon (which involves a 5 mile drive)..  Convoys of campers on the way again.. Easter holidays is apparently still on for some people...

Edit: To add that it’s 1ft @ 5secs, flat as fuck in other words.

[Andy W]

Friends in Braunton (that surf shop filled village on the way to N. Devon beaches Saunton/Croyde) report that new next door neighbours have arrived from London today... Apparently they are here ‘self isolating’, they went for a surf this afternoon (which involves a 5 mile drive)..  Convoys of campers on the way again.. Easter holidays is apparently still on for some people...

Despair, it's the same in France, the police and army are roadblocking the main routes, but still people think they can take their holidays.

[tomtom]

Friends in Braunton (that surf shop filled village on the way to N. Devon beaches Saunton/Croyde) report that new next door neighbours have arrived from London today... Apparently they are here ‘self isolating’, they went for a surf this afternoon (which involves a 5 mile drive)..  Convoys of campers on the way again.. Easter holidays is apparently still on for some people...

That’s f*cking shite. One of our sons nursery friends parents upped sticks the moment the schools closed to their in-laws in Cornwall. Part of me thinks fair enough that’s to help with childcare / being cooped up in Manxhester is worse than being cooped up 10 min walk from a beach - but it seemed the wrong thing to do in many ways to me. Another parent (that weekend) took the whole family to their caravan in te lakes for the weekend (the last chance they would have to use it - their words) which again seemed pretty selfish...

Here’s a tale - it’s a bit long winded but - my wife’s aunt has a holiday cottage in the lakes we sometimes rent off her - very remote, rustic - one neighbouring cottage within a Km or so. We know the people there fairly well (lovely folk) and found out they’re just recovering after having CV for three weeks. It seems that CV19 was introduced to their nearest village (Dockray - look it up on a map it’s tiny) at least at the beginning of March and has led to a load of local cases. They’ve figured this all out via village based ‘who got it’ contact tracing

My point is - either their village was unlucky - or This would suggest it’s been rife in the UK for well over a month of not two...

Final point - joggers - stop acting like cunts. We’re supposed to be social distancing not near barging people out of the way who are out for a gentle walk!! I don’t want your sweaty mass dripping near me in these times. Bah. I swear people give me a wider berth when I’m out walking either the toddler. Maybe they think he’s got superspreader written all over him 😃. I think I should stop now.

[IanP]

Thanks Pete. Nice to have some backup.

Just have to wait and see. I imagine we’re not the only ones keeping a close eye on the situation.

More back up here - good theoretical argument and then real life evidence that matches the theory.  And really interesting, its easy to assume that the 'obvious' is the way things work but the real world isn't always like that and we should use statistics and probability to help us understand this  .

[HaeMeS]

Since some of you seem to be preoccupied with the situation in the Netherlands, here’s some  inside details from the country thats acting almost as crazy as Sweden...

The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) is basically in charge and tells the government what to do. It’s not politicians or the media dictating rules and regulations, it’s epidemiologists.

Contrarily to what some might think what is in place is a pretty effective yet not restrictive voluntary lockdown. Basically all social contact has come to a standstill. Gatherings of more than 3 people are not allowed. Walking, surfing, cycling, running, walking the dog is allowed. Just keep your distance. No need to get upset over people doing stuff outside where it is not possible to infect others! Big parking lots at very popular outdoor venues have closed or will close during the weekend. Schools have been closed for 3 weeks now, bit kids are still allowed to play together outside. Work and travel is still not restricted, but people are asked to stay home, which has a huge effect.

The funny thing is, in normal live (the live not lived on social media and internet fora) hardly anybody is panicking, even newspapers and television are keeping it sane.  And yes, deaths and IC admissions are still on the rise, but the growth is slowing down, and will probably stabilize
in a few days. RIVM has changed it’s approach since the start of the outbreak, but that's hardly surprising as they will have to act to a known unknown, but do not want to disrupt normal live excessively. It seems they/the government are doing an OK job (disclaimer: I’ve worked @RIVM in the past, but on a different subject).

Today, we saw official data on weekly mortality in 2020 which was compared to weekly mortality in the previous years. It shows the real mortality caused by COVID-19 to be a lot bigger than hospital data (duh...). It also shows COVID-19 mortality to be bigger than mortality caused by the last serious outbreak of the flu. Next weeks data will be even higher: https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

Concerning IC capacity: today’s 1324 IC beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients. Up by 51. IC Capacity has gone up to 2100 beds (from 1200), and will rise to 2400 in a couple of days. No panic yet.

[tc]

Friends in Braunton (that surf shop filled village on the way to N. Devon beaches Saunton/Croyde) report that new next door neighbours have arrived from London today... Apparently they are here ‘self isolating’, they went for a surf this afternoon (which involves a 5 mile drive)..  Convoys of campers on the way again.. Easter holidays is apparently still on for some people...

Despair, it's the same in France, the police and army are roadblocking the main routes, but still people think they can take their holidays.

Just watched the news here in France. Seems like the Paris to Normandy weekend exodus has started. Putains de débile 

[T_B]

Final point - joggers - stop acting like cunts. We’re supposed to be social distancing not near barging people out of the way who are out for a gentle walk!! I don’t want your sweaty mass dripping near me in these times. Bah. I swear people give me a wider berth when I’m out walking either the toddler. Maybe they think he’s got superspreader written all over him 😃. I think I should stop now.

Keep in mind that a lot of people have taken up running (jogging) in the last two weeks. Some of them may be less aware of etiquette on the pavements/trails.

I have to say though my pet hate is bloomin families out for their family “hour of exercise” bonding session walking slowly four abreast down bridleways. Get out of the way you bastards!

Seriously though, people are generally very good around here in terms of making space. There’s the usual odd wanker dog owner that thinks it’s acceptable for their dog to jump up at people/nip them, but that’s just standard with or without SD.

[BrutusTheBear]

Friends in Braunton (that surf shop filled village on the way to N. Devon beaches Saunton/Croyde) report that new next door neighbours have arrived from London today... Apparently they are here ‘self isolating’, they went for a surf this afternoon (which involves a 5 mile drive)..  Convoys of campers on the way again.. Easter holidays is apparently still on for some people...

Despair, it's the same in France, the police and army are roadblocking the main routes, but still people think they can take their holidays.

Just watched the news here in France. Seems like the Paris to Normandy weekend exodus has started. Putains de débile 

  Not enough policia to do a great deal about, plenty of back roads to avoid road blocks, whilst someone is stopped others drive on through. The town centre was heaving today, a lot of people just not getting it..  What can you do.?.

[TobyD]

Friends in Braunton (that surf shop filled village on the way to N. Devon beaches Saunton/Croyde) report that new next door neighbours have arrived from London today... Apparently they are here ‘self isolating’, they went for a surf this afternoon (which involves a 5 mile drive)..  Convoys of campers on the way again.. Easter holidays is apparently still on for some people...

Despair, it's the same in France, the police and army are roadblocking the main routes, but still people think they can take their holidays.

Just watched the news here in France. Seems like the Paris to Normandy weekend exodus has started. Putains de débile 

  Not enough policia to do a great deal about, plenty of back roads to avoid road blocks, whilst someone is stopped others drive on through. The town centre was heaving today, a lot of people just not getting it..  What can you do.?.

This is absolutely fucking unbelievable. I can't believe how pig ignorantly selfish some people are. I was in the peak for work this morning and all the towns and villages I went through were more or less deserted. I hope it stays like that. Brutus, if you encounter any of the grockles perhaps asking how many people it's worth spreading the virus to for them to take a holiday? A few more nurses in their 30s perhaps?

It really does make me extremely angry that some people think they are exempt from this, all that will happen is that the government will be obliged to crack down harder on everyone to try to limit spread.

[Will Hunt]

Since some of you seem to be preoccupied with the situation in the Netherlands, here’s some  inside details from the country thats acting almost as crazy as Sweden...
...

So only a little more lax than here but with calmer reporting?


My wife has been out walking the kids each day this week and has reported significantly more traffic about. It seems people are getting bored of the lockdown. Or at least have a completely different idea of what the word "essential" means. Some of my work colleagues have been into work to collect a monitor to make it more easy to work at home. Journeys of 10 miles +, sometimes on the M62 there. Hardly essential is it?

We can't say that we're saints on here though, can we? The "how to build a woodie" thread has seen plenty of people out buying wood for instance...    (Sorry if that's you. I have no idea whether the local builder's merchants is right next to the supermarket and you were there anyway).
Not me, though. I haven't left home for a week other than to go to Aldi for an hour - which was the scariest time of the whole situation so far. I kept feeling the urge to say "blessed be the fruit" to everyone.

[dunnyg]

I thought you had been out for walks will?