[Paul B]

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-bill-what-it-will-do

"There has never in my lifetime been a law that so encroached on our civil liberties and basic rights as the Coronavirus Bill, scheduled to become law by end of month. It is all aimed at keeping us safe. But the transfer of unchallengeable power to the state for two years is..."

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1240042142678089730?s=19

[petejh]

The differences in behaviour is bizarre and interesting to observe. Behavioural science in action! Yesterday evening popped into the supermarket - loads of people seemingly without much care, and plenty of old folk shopping. Conversely, saw a young man walking across the car park wearing an industrial painter's ori-nasal filter mask with organic & acid gas filter attached!!! Looked like he was going to a fetish club.

[Offwidth]

Ours was half a day ahead. Despite being closed for most things - my inbox reveals that university administrators are still working to full effect. Truly the cockroaches of the academic system.

(For their ability to survive etc... honest.. 😃)

Ours has shut face to face teaching and moving all meetings to microsoft teams. The talk to move to online only teaching is hitting a few bumps (in particular as we have practical and legal problems with lecture capture from last year).  Its going to be hard work for those with large classes as resolving individual student issues by email is always slower than face to face. Our research labs are open until we are forced to work from home.

Problems at Cambridge:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/mar/18/cambridge-colleges-criticised-for-asking-students-to-leave-over-coronavirus

More concerns about NHS coronvirus testing for staff on the Guardian today... contrasts starkly with the health leadership reassurance given to the select committee yesterday.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/there-is-a-policy-of-surrender-doctor-on-uks-covid-19-failures

[duncan]

Not least the fact that all the cultural institutions are likely to be shut by then I'd have thought?

All the major institutions - National Gallery, Tate, V+A, NPG, British Museum, Museum of London, all major concert halls -  are closed.

The response of some on the Climber's Club FB page is similar: a lot of denial and invitations to visit rural N Devon. How many ITU beds does Barnstaple hospital have...?

I live here/there - unless he fancies an immersive ‘21 days later’ experience or queuing a lot, he’s going to be disappointed.

   

[tomtom]

Hear in hopefully soon to be leafy S.Manchester, Nursery (its part of a school) was only half full today.

Roads were quiet - MrsTT got to work quickly.

Also - lots of people out running. The area is full of 'young professionals' and I'd guess many of them were working from home and taking the opportunity to get out (even though it was drizzling).

[Oldmanmatt]

Honestly, “that” generation are a pain in the fucking arse.

It’s as if the program “World view” was installed in their brains, circa 1966, as Read Only and anything that happened since is “fake”, “snowflake” or a “Socialist plot”.

I had to go into town yesterday. Very few people under 60 visible, every cafe full of obviously retirees.

[BrutusTheBear]

Not least the fact that all the cultural institutions are likely to be shut by then I'd have thought?

All the major institutions - National Gallery, Tate, V+A, NPG, British Museum, Museum of London, all major concert halls -  are closed.

The response of some on the Climber's Club FB page is similar: a lot of denial and invitations to visit rural N Devon. How many ITU beds does Barnstaple hospital have...?

I live here/there - unless he fancies an immersive ‘21 days later’ experience or queuing a lot, he’s going to be disappointed.

   

  I live in Barnstaple, North Devon!  Firstly, can I say on behalf of everyone here ‘don’t be coming eer grockles!’.  I can also report that North Devon hospital was in code red or whatever they call the we’re f**ked and full to the brim before this started. Our neighbour works there and unsurprisingly reports it’s full on up there.

[JamieG]

As if the Italians weren't suffering enough already! Along comes Bono! 

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/mar/18/bono-coronavirus-song-italy-let-your-love-be-known

[Paul B]

The differences in behaviour is bizarre and interesting to observe.

My Dad's cycling club (all over 60, most with additional complications) are set to go out on a club ride as per usual today. He's not attending.

His mate (60+) just made it back from France yesterday and decided he'd be going out for dinner to celebrate. My in-laws flew to Sydney on Fri and when we were talking to them regarding risk they cited us climbing and said something along the lines of "we have no underlying health issues". They're 77.

I had to have a strong conversation at home as we now have excessive amounts of toilet roll  .

hopefully soon to be leafy S.Manchester, Nursery (its part of a school) was only half full today.

Did you see the footage of the venice canals (very clear water) / Italian ports (dolphins)? I have zero idea if the change is real but I'm believe it for now.

[abarro81]

My Dad's cycling club (all over 60, most with additional complications) are set to go out on a club ride as per usual today. He's not attending.

His mate (60+) just made it back from France yesterday and decided he'd be going out for dinner to celebrate. My in-laws flew to Sydney on Fri and when we were talking to them regarding risk they cited us climbing and said something along the lines of "we have no underlying health issues". They're 77.

 
My boss had to have an argument with his (70 yr+, pre-exisiting conditions) parents the other day because they wanted to come round to his house to see his son, whose birthday it was. Sounds like they only relented after he told them that he would point blank refuse to open the door to them.

[spidermonkey09]

They're all fucking mental. If they aren't going to help themselves there is a very real risk that others just stop taking precautions too.

[BrutusTheBear]

My parents are holed up at home in Minehead as of today... However, they’ve been in S Wales visiting my dad’s brother, followed up with a couple of days in Cardiff.
The father in law is stuck in Portugal but his response to social distancing...’that’s not happening’!
The boomers don’t appear to give a

[tomtom]

Honestly, “that” generation are a pain in the fucking arse.

I had to go into town yesterday. Very few people under 60 visible, every cafe full of obviously retirees.

That 'Blitz Spirit' of carry on carry on - is very much NOT what should happen.....

My parents (80's - and healthy) are taking sensible precautions. Stopped socialising (my mum played bridge 3 times a week with a load of other rinsers) and only sending one of them out to the shop at a time.

[Johnny Brown]

JB, my reading of the situation is that the response the UK started with - the mitigate response -  was the most sensible response given the modelling and the data they had back then - bearing in mind the total shutdown for 6-18 months alternative was complete economic destruction. The data from # of Italian hospitalisations requiring ICU has changed the outlook, and the government has changed the response. I don't see cause for anger, they were doing what they should - acting on the advice of the best science at the time, and they've changed their approach according to new data. That's good.

I did a bit more reading on this today, as like Pete I have trouble with dismissing our experts as idiots.

Some good analysis online, (Nassim Taleb's feed is a good starting point), summary:

It is an important model because it includes social/ government response not just contagion, but has significant issues, e.g. doesn't include superspreaders, uses aggregates not agents, limited second-order effects etc.

The takeaway of the model should have been that small changes in the inputs have massive, non linear effects on the outputs, and therefore significant uncertainty exists and are unreliable for decision making.

'In the real world, one must REDUCE RISK in the absence of reliable data, via the MOST ROBUST (model resistant) method.' (Taleb)

Instead, it seems they fixated on how certain inputs generated a magic output that appeared to save lives AND the economy, while leaving the population immune. Game the system, win, win, everyone else looks stupid. #ClassicDom 'maverick freethinking' in other words. Unfortunately those inputs didn't look tenable for very long.

The takeaway is the experts had too much confidence in the models and the ministers too much confidence in the experts. Having been in the safety industry 20 years this is not news to me sadly, when I rewrote the IRATA syllabus I included what was to me one of the most important phrases: 'technicians should recognise the limits of their competence'. Experts in modelling pandemics are not necessarily experts in risk management.

My hunch is that the numbers of deaths produced by the model were too shocking for them to really take seriously, and were further abstracted by the huge variations produced by the model. So instead they fixated on the effects on the economy which dealt in figures they were far more used to dealing with.

Meanwhile, look at this:

I can also report that North Devon hospital was in code red or whatever they call the we’re f**ked and full to the brim before this started. Our neighbour works there and unsurprisingly reports it’s full on up there.

We simply don't have the slack in the system to make these sort of errors and delays. We don't need an outbreak as bad as Italy or a population as old as Italy to become the next Italy.

WHO advice: Test, test, test.

Uk, meh, in a bit maybe. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/there-is-a-policy-of-surrender-doctor-on-uks-covid-19-failures

I think the outlook is fucking grim right now.

[abarro81]

They're all fucking mental. If they aren't going to help themselves there is a very real risk that others just stop taking precautions too.

Fortunately it's not everyone. My dad (super-high-risk) and step-mum have been self-isolating for a few weeks already (helps that they live in the country with a huge garden).
My mum's response (this was about a week or more back) was that they'd reduced going out to events/seeing people, and that self-isolation didn't sound so bad, but... "I'm not sure I'd want to cancel quartet practice".  Fortunately after both me and my brother expressed bewilderment at her interpretation of self-isolation and concern for her and our step dad, they now seem to get it. On that note, I suspect that we can have an effect on at least some of these people by a heavy (and much needed, by the sounds of it) dose of emotional bullying/appealing to parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, etc

[seankenny]

They're all fucking mental. If they aren't going to help themselves there is a very real risk that others just stop taking precautions too.

I think they are just too intellectually and emotionally inflexible to understand how hugely and rapidly things have changed. My mum has dementia so just does her routine trip for a paper anyhow, because that's what she does. I'm not losing any sleep over that as most other stuff is cancelled. A couple of aunties have now cancelled everything and are busy sorting themselves out for a protracted stay at home. I think being told that my partner and I think we have the disease made it a bit more real for them.

[tomtom]

Good post JB. I'd add that the Govt seemingly only consulting/trusing the Imperial experts (f*cking Imperial...) rather than a group who might include more/less pessimistic outcomes has got us into this mess. When you have a committee - its good to have a range of views from which you can draw up a strategy.

Your graph is interesting. The shape of the curves - including the flat line then exponential up-tick - is interesting. Wonder what that hiatus/flat area represents. Further - as we've drastically reduced the spread of our testing (across the wider population) the number of positive tests is not an especially good metric for comparison. Deaths probably is more reliable - though as others have posted not flagging up CV19 deaths in Germany may be an issue here.

Yes. The outlook is grim.

[sdm]

My parents are holed up at home in Minehead as of today... However, they’ve been in S Wales visiting my dad’s brother, followed up with a couple of days in Cardiff.

On the plus side, I hear that Cardiff is completely dead. The restaurants and bars that haven't closed yet mostly had zero customers yesterday.

Sadly the Welsh government still aren't taking things seriously and are business as usual, expecting staff to go in to the office. For work that should all be done remotely were it not for antiquated and ineffective IT "security" measures.

[Doylo]

BigMickyD also took his 95 year old mother out for a meal. Just no words..

[petejh]

BigMickyD also took his 95 year old mother out for a meal. Just no words..

Inheritance? Is one word in vogue right now. Or should be.

[cheque]

Interesting to see the differences between the climbers that I follow on Instagram’s “stories”- the mainland Europeans are posting a mix of light-hearted “training at home” and more serious “remember why we’re doing this” stuff while the US, UK, Canadian and Australian ones are an absolute mixed bag from people who are self-isolating whether they’ve been told to or not all the way through to people carrying on with trips, posting videos of themselves partying with large groups of people after etc. The latter seems like madness to me, particularly when you consider that climbing trips in the US involve people travelling from major cites to very small towns in the middle of nowhere... Moab hospital apparently has only 17 beds and 3 ventilators.

Lots of people caught blissfully unaware while climbing in Europe, including quite a few who read this I imagine- I hope you’re all doing OK. I’m sure we can all relate to going on a trip and a lot of the pleasure being the disconnection from following current affairs etc. Must be horrible to have the current affairs (literally) come and find you- a friend of mine posted a message along the lines of “I’m all alone in Spain, who wants to come out from Britain and climb with me where it’s nice and quiet?”- type message then soon after, following online opprobrium and possibly even the authorities arriving followed it with an “I’m so sorry I had no idea what was actually going on”- type one.

As I said earlier, my Dad’s really high risk and my Mum (72, has MND) can’t be loads lower but fortunately they’re extremely sensible, their illnesses mean they don’t go out much anyway and they have a neighbour who looks after them with shopping etc. It only occurred to me yesterday that having had a pneumothorax less than two years ago probably means that I’m not in the very lowest risk category myself but I’m now working completely from home. The problem we have in my organisation is that loads of people who in theory can work from home have never done it so whether the certificates etc. on their laptops are actually set up or not is now going to be tested at a crucial time.

[SA Chris]

Honestly, “that” generation are a pain in the fucking arse.

I had to go into town yesterday. Very few people under 60 visible, every cafe full of obviously retirees.

That 'Blitz Spirit' of carry on carry on - is very much NOT what should happen.....

It's fucking mental. My aunt and uncle (who spend winter in Les Gets) are both in their 70s. When they heard the Portes du Soleil was closing down, they went skiing at a nearby resort for the day, then used a car they were sharing with some friends of a similar age to access the slopes (who had just arrived by plane), then all went on a snowshoe hike together and had a picnic. Now deciding when the are going to close up there and drive back to the UK, sometime in the "next couple of weeks". I said to them that if things get worse they might not be able to, I was told i was talking "nonsense".

[spidermonkey09]

I look forward to millennial behaviour being blamed for the enormous death toll in a few months time...

[Oldmanmatt]

I look forward to millennial behaviour being blamed for the enormous death toll in a few months time...

Yup.

A normally bigoted, misogynistic and vocal, uncle of mine; referred to it as “Millennial Flu” the other day.

Gotta luv them straight talkers, who “say it as they see it”.

Perchance, one supposes, they should have gone to Specsavers.

[abarro81]

Can someone critique my maths?

There' an infographic doing the rounds on FB, advocating social distancing and  saying
- If 1 person infects 2.5 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 406 infections
- If 1 person infects 1.25 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 15 infections
- If 1 person infects .625 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 2.5 infections

But my rough numbers, when assuming it takes 15 days to become "uninfected and uninfectious" come out as more like 1600, 65 and 0 (it's fudged because doing things in blocks of 5 days doesn't work nicely). Am I wrong or are they?