[Johnny Brown]

Pete, What about b & d, then d?

I.e. massive lock down now, to curb the initial exponential increase globally. Then, total lock-down for those "most at risk", to prevent infection and to slow the rate of infection. This will go on for months.

Seems like learning from China, Korea etc would be the most sensible - lockdown hard and early to get it under control, then slowly unlock (70% back at work in Wuhan, travel still limited) while targeting outbreaks with heightened measures and intensive testing as they occur.

[petejh]

Pete, What about b & d, then d?

I.e. massive lock down now, to curb the initial exponential increase globally. Then, total lock-down for those "most at risk", to prevent infection and to slow the rate of infection. This will go on for months.

Once the initial surge is over, life should go on while still trying to maintain distance and being extremely cautious mixing with "at risk" people. That way the healthy get it, not all at once, but spread over months, and transmission to the "at risk" is minimised.

Part if me wants to get it now, then I'm free (as far as most scientist seem to think...) to get back to work (somewhat essential job in energy, but not really) and get on with helping people in need.

Yes, quite possibly, I suppose I'm just posting what I can see are our options in this circumstance, and how I see it will likely play out. I can see our government's logic.. But yes maybe there are better option, I don't know.

This is very informative and a simple way of understanding what we're trying to achieve. I'd urge everyone to share it widely.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1238906195651559424

It's a simple concept, but actually quite sophisticated compared to 'total lock-down'.

Clearly, it's going to rely on public compliance at the right moment.


edit: JB I think it isn't realistic (assuming the data behind the UK modeller's plan is sound, and we're supposedly very good?).


The twitter video raises a further point - the problem ISN'T 'the exponential rise' per se. The death rate and rate of infection will be what they are for each virus, in a population without immunity and vaccine. The problem IS not being able to treat the most severely ill.

While we can treat, the death rate will be what it naturally will be.

Therefore it makes sense to allow the exponential rise for as long as you can treat (*obviously* after taking the actions you can to delay until the health service capacity is at what can be achieved within the constraints of each countries circumstances - huge debate!). Stop at last safe moment - as per illustrated in that vid. Keep treating and try to keep the death toll within the natural range of the infection for as long as possible.

[Fultonius]

Form what I've heard/read form friends in the medical profession and online, is that ICU currently ticks along at 95% capacity. So, while there is logic in the water flow bucket argument, we're potentially already at the point!

[Johnny Brown]

What isn't realistic?

For me that demo is worryingly over-simplistic (patronising even). It suggests a) that we have loads of spare ICU capacity, and b) it suggests you're turning the tap off based on today's data, and getting a quick result from your reaction.

You aren't - you're turning it off based on what the models suggest numbers will be in ~10 days/ the incubation period/ two doubling cycles time - i.e. the numbers locked into the system because today's critical cases were last week's walking infectors. I'm struggling with how that 95% capacity allows for that with any margin for error.

The strategy is also dependent on high levels of testing - which we seem to be doing okay on but very hard to separate signal from noise here - while being very vulnerable to errors in modelling, which given we're dealing with exponential growth are likewise potentially huge.

Obviously the scientists involved know this better than I do, and I understand it's a hard call to make. But better to go too early than late. The timing of the peak is surely better delayed - giving more time to understand and prepare.

[petejh]

My take is that the time-lag you mention will be baked into the response time, it has to be.

Again I'm definitively not trying to paint a rosy picture because it's going to be shit.  I think from memory that 95% is from last December. I'm not trying to say we have loads of capacity, clearly we don't. Obviously capacity will be artificially increased.
One positive (or less negative) point I've heard (which may/may not have much truth) is that for many hospitalisations in the severe (not critical) category the treatment is fairly agricultural - you don't need too much more than a bed in a building, some oxygen, and time. The rest comes from the body - you either beat it or move into critical category. In no way attempting to underplay anything - clearly you do need more than just that but we aren't talking highly specialised ICU for all hospitalisations. Corners will have to be cut.
Critical care obviously requires far more, e.g. vital organ support etc. It looks highly likely we won't have critical care capacity at some point.

[Johnny Brown]

Which brings me to a related point - if and when the hospitals are overwhelmed, is it socially responsible to continue climbing?

Are you comfortable with the increased level of personal risk if there isn't a functioning A&E?

Are you comfortable with the thought that any treatment you might require will encroach on that required by Covid-19 sufferers?

Much as I believe my risk assessment skills to be good, and I've never had a climbing injury beyond a sprained ankle (touch wood), I might not be comfortable adding to a statistical group that contributes regular trips to A&E. That might also go for cycling, surfing, rugby, driving etc - anything other than walk or jog. This might need explaining to a lot of people, while balancing it against the health and mental health issues of self-isolation at home. 

Potentially a more worthwhile point to discuss on a bouldering forum than our uninformed and irrelevant critiques of national policy?

[petejh]

In reply to why I don't think it's realistic right now to 100% lock-down the whole UK, which is what would be required to halt the spread (but wouldn't stop the virus existing and re-emerging)

I just don't think we're capable of making that work for the sort of length of time required to be effective. Locking-down one city plus rural province in a huge country with a compliant population under the control of an undemocratic system is not the same as locking-down an entire densely-populated country in a western democracy. You can dig into reasons why it would or wouldn't work, but that's my instinctive answer. Italy and other nations will be a test case to prove what works best I guess.
Maybe my views are biased by having been involved in various riot-control situations in northern Irelend over the 90s, in Londonderry, Belfast and Drumcree. People are difficult to control, especially in emotionally-charged times. And it doesn't take too much for things to go a bit pear shaped. Not saying that's valid in this situation but maybe informs my view.

[petejh]

Yeah I've been wondering the same ref climbing, bouldering and mountain biking. Think it's very valid to ease off any activity that carries an elevated risk of minor injury.

[JamieG]

I mostly agree with you here JB. Except that this is irrelevant or uniformed.

Many people posting here either work the medical and scientific communities (or have family/friends that do). So maybe not every nuance is picked up but generally I think UKB discussions aren't too far off the mark.

As for irrelevant if the postings here make a few people change their behaviour, which in turn results in the people they know changing their behaviour etc. then this is helpful. For me any discussing these things is an important exercise in working out what my own opinion is.

I agree it isn't going to get the government to change their policy but it has me shape my own personal one.

[Ru]

The water flowing out of a bucket into a bottle analogy is fundamentally flawed. It assumes a flow rate that's too small and a spare capacity that doesn't exist. I saw a well reasoned calculation, that I will try and post a link to if I can find it again, that took into account the amount of excess healthcare capacity currently available, made some fairly generous guesstimates as to how much extra we can reasonably get in the next year (taking into account things like stopping elective operations getting more equipment and staff) and worked out that for the "flattening the curve" plan to make any difference to the number of people that could be treated (assuming 60% infection) the infections would have to be spread out over 17 years.

With respect to continuing to climb, I've made a mental list of low balls.

[JohnM]

Yeah I've been wondering the same ref climbing, bouldering and mountain biking. Think it's very valid to ease off any activity that carries an elevated risk of minor injury.

I got some fairly abrupt responses on a FB group for asking whether it was ok to go climbing in a pair by bike or on foot during the current lockdown we are having in Innsbruck. I understand people are scared and stressed at the moment so asking about selfish activities is high risk if you don't want to get flamed on the internet. I understand the argument from not taking any risks that could add additional strain on the hospitals, but rationally I don't think climbing would add a significant strain on ICUs on average on a week by week basis. However, these are not rational times.   

[Johnny Brown]

You can dig into reasons why it would or wouldn't work, but that's my instinctive answer. Italy and other nations will be a test case to prove what works best I guess.

Sure. I think we're very lucky not to be in their position, but will benefit from being able to watch the preview. My hunch is people will adapt very quickly and behaviour will be driven not by the state but by the death rate. Given prudent finances some forced gardening/ netflix leave shouldn't be a hardship and could have lasting societal benefits, as mentioned higher in the thread. The question is how many businesses and individuals will quickly be into dire financial straits and how they can be helped through.

I've made a mental list of low balls.

I'm not sure I'll go that far, considering how many will be throwing themselves at DIY projects. Or the second wave might coincide with the baby boom from the first.

Except that this is irrelevant or uniformed.

Good point. I was thinking about how our critique isn't going to get fed back to government but you're right, it doesn't need to.

[Johnny Brown]

I got some fairly abrupt responses on a FB group for asking whether it was ok to go climbing in a pair by bike or on foot during the current lockdown we are having in Innsbruck.

Yeah, my post was prompted by a FB post this morning - 'my ski touring holiday is cancelled so we're heading to Scotland - where's good?'. It got a similar response, with the point that highland communities are small, isolated and not overrun with ICUs. That said I'm going ahead with my own scottish winter trip tomorrow, though not sure how fast things will change.

PS anyone know why the Germans aren't dying?

[Bonjoy]

#TopropeClub

[Paul B]

It'll be interesting to see how the civil engineering industry copes. Some very large Contractors aren't in great shape currently and from what I'm seeing the industry is getting ready to make sites safe and essentially stop work.

[teestub]

PS anyone know why the Germans aren't dying?

They were ready for the Wurst case scenario.

[Doylo]

A minor topic but I can see climbers starting to get roasted for glory posts on Insta when the death rates start going up. Might aswell close it down til it’s over and suspend all sponsorship deals. 

[spidermonkey09]

Increasingly feeling like whatever the government say indoor climbing is not very socially responsible at the moment. Outdoors clearly better but still not brilliant.

The potential benefits of people doing things they enjoy/going outside if they are practising social distancing through the week have to be weighed up against the potential strain on healthcare services in the event of accidents and the potential to transmit the virus even while outside. To that end; my thoughts at the moment are to personally avoid indoor climbing in favour of fingerboarding, tentatively plan to continue outside climbing and avoid going to pubs this week. No doubt by tomorrow I'll have changed my mind of some of this but thats my current thoughts. Interested in other peoples.

[petejh]

PS anyone know why the Germans aren't dying?

They were ready for the Wurst case scenario.

May as well close down 'Best Pun in 2020', we have a winner!

[yetix]

Increasingly feeling like whatever the government say indoor climbing is not very socially responsible at the moment. Outdoors clearly better but still not brilliant.

The potential benefits of people doing things they enjoy/going outside if they are practising social distancing through the week have to be weighed up against the potential strain on healthcare services in the event of accidents and the potential to transmit the virus even while outside. To that end; my thoughts at the moment are to personally avoid indoor climbing in favour of fingerboarding, tentatively plan to continue outside climbing and avoid going to pubs this week. No doubt by tomorrow I'll have changed my mind of some of this but thats my current thoughts. Interested in other peoples.

pretty much what I'm doing now. Avoid the wall at all costs.

[SA Chris]

Might as well close it down til it’s over and suspend all sponsorship deals. 

May as well. Olympics are looking increasingly unlikely.

[James Malloch]

Sounds like the EU is closing it’s boarders to all but non-essential travel for 30 days...

Edit - a press conference afterwards said that UK citizens would continue to be allowed...

[gme]

It'll be interesting to see how the civil engineering industry copes. Some very large Contractors aren't in great shape currently and from what I'm seeing the industry is getting ready to make sites safe and essentially stop work.

Can you direct me to where you see this. Having spoken to a lot of contacts in the construction industry this isnt the general consensus.

[Paul B]

My inbox? You've got me on FB so feel free to pester.

[tomtom]

Increasingly feeling like whatever the government say indoor climbing is not very socially responsible at the moment. Outdoors clearly better but still not brilliant.

The potential benefits of people doing things they enjoy/going outside if they are practising social distancing through the week have to be weighed up against the potential strain on healthcare services in the event of accidents and the potential to transmit the virus even while outside. To that end; my thoughts at the moment are to personally avoid indoor climbing in favour of fingerboarding, tentatively plan to continue outside climbing and avoid going to pubs this week. No doubt by tomorrow I'll have changed my mind of some of this but thats my current thoughts. Interested in other peoples.

I’m probably going to stop going indoors this week.

But outdoors I don’t see a problem. Plenty of esoteric regularly rain washed and uv bathed (sometimes!) crags around.