[Yossarian]

 

[Yossarian]

But that doesn't mean that I wont be pissed off and comfort eat 10 cookies if my trip gets cancelled.

[highrepute]

Hi James,

It certainly is a worrying read. Unfortunately whilst we do seem to have done quite a bit of testing. There are quite a few reports of people waiting days and days to hear about a test and getting no response. Despite having been to high risk areas and having the symptoms too.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/11/uk-coronavirus-cases-jump-to-456-and-eighth-briton-dies

The article describes the following situation:

"Phillip Meyer, a businessman from Kent, said he and his son had been waiting nine days for a coronavirus test after getting a cough following a trip to northern Italy.

He said: “We are testing between 1,000 and 2,000 people a day in the UK, so clearly there is a bottleneck. If in South Korea they test 15,000 a day, why can’t we do that here?”

A retired intensive care doctor told the Guardian that the increase has come “way too late” after he and his friends were repeatedly refused tests despite falling ill following a skiing trip, to Ischgl in Austria. The 55-year-old doctor from Chichester, who has his name only as Andrew said: “They may be upping the testing but they haven’t put Ischgl on a high risk list, despite knowing about this for days. Six of us have been back in Chichester going about their daily life. I suspect we’ll find a big cluster in Chichester two weeks.”


Quite worrying.

I've read those reports but there's bound to be 1000s of people who feel aggrieved they can't have a test. I'm not convinced it's representative of a lack of testing.

I guess we have to wait 5 days and see what happens in Chichester.

[sxrxg]

Macron is giving a national address tonight at 1900 GMT (2000 in France) concerning CV-19. Hopefully not restricting travel.

Not meaning to be a dick but surely a font Easter trip (I assume that is why you don't want travel restricted) is not that important in the grand scheme of things during the current outbreak... The rocks will still be there for a long time after this pandemic. I just hope that peoples older/high risk relatives and friends are also around for a long time as well.

Of course contextually my concern for a pleasant trip pales in comparison, foolish for me to think a climbing-related comment on a climbing-related forum was appropriate though. Will refrain in the future.

As a climber I understand your comment and would hate for you to refrain on commenting in the future (as I can see you are a new poster).

In fact I should probably have refrained from posting myself. I added nothing to the thread other than noting my worry about the lack of action by governments and not changing our expectations of what we will/won't be able to do in the next few weeks or months.

[BrutusTheBear]

Big sporting event happening at the works this weekend i think. I bet there hoping the announcement that is looking more and more likely is held off until Monday.

Its got virus spread written all over it.

Indeed, was planning to head to a comp. at the Hangar in Plymouth this weekend, I know it’s not quite the CWIF but at present it’s still on.

[Yossarian]

I’m basically only going to the wall when my kids have classes / squad training at the moment. If the schools close then I’m assuming most of those sessions will be shutting down too.

I have a feeling we’re going to see a lot of fingerboard PBs set this year...

[gme]

When the zombie holocaust arrived I was expecting that there would be a run on guns and tinned food not, as the spam emails I am getting suggest, laptops, dust masks, soap and VPN services.

A bit disappointing really.

[gme]

Had a meeting with my bank manager today ( they could only attend if less than 6 people involved). They met with a funeral directors yesterday who you would have thought was delighted at this. However he’s expecting less work as he thinks rates will drop due to all the cleaning going on having a positive ( negative in his case)  effect on the volume of normal flu, novovirus etc cases that supply him with customers.
Will be interesting to see.

[Ru]

They met with a funeral directors yesterday who you would have thought was delighted at this. However he’s expecting less work as he thinks rates will drop due to all the cleaning going on having a positive ( negative in his case)  effect on the volume of normal flu, novovirus etc cases that supply him with customers.

Unless he's got any actual data to back that up, I wouldn't hold my breath.

[tomtom]

Melbourne Grand Prix cancelled.

Awaiting the Cobra outcome....

[sdm]

Had a meeting with my bank manager today ( they could only attend if less than 6 people involved). They met with a funeral directors yesterday who you would have thought was delighted at this. However he’s expecting less work as he thinks rates will drop due to all the cleaning going on having a positive ( negative in his case)  effect on the volume of normal flu, novovirus etc cases that supply him with customers.
Will be interesting to see.

In Lombardy, (and, I presume, now the rest of Italy) funerals have been cancelled. Only parents, children, partners and siblings are allowed, and services are very much scaled back with everyone having to comply with the minimum distance requirements from each other.

If we end up in a similar situation, funeral directors may have lots of cases to deal with but I their earnings per case could be very low.

[petejh]

I was trying to make that point, TT, but didn't choose my words very precisely.

Maybe should have said: a lockdown will have maximum effect if you implement it before the virus becomes widespread, but you can still have one anyway once it has, but it won't be as effective.

Btw, Gav, the point about all these measures is that for them to actually be effective, you have to implement them before you think you need to. By the time you shut the stable door the horse has bolted.

I think thats probably Gavs point.....

I think Gav is saying that he wouldn't bother having any sort of lockdown unless things were quite dire, and my point is that Gav is wrong. My point is that the lockdown would be most effective if it was implemented early (maybe not now, but certainly earlier rather than later), at a time when folk like Gav would be saying "what's the point?".

So the question apparently on everyone's mask-covered lips now is.. when should the UK trigger a lockdown and how draconian should it be?
My personal take from listening to the various voices today is that we will end up at some point in the next 1-4 weeks having a surprisingly draconian lockdown - more draconian than Italy (but less than China) - but also one specifically targeted at the most vulnerable groups: the over 60s and those with underlying ill-health. In the belief that when a lockdown comes it can be as total as possible for the longest time practically achievable. Presumably there'll be high compliance from those vulnerable groups. Majority of the rest of us will probably get the virus if we haven't already had it/got it. Number of deaths will mostly depend on how many of those over 60 or with underlying ill-health catch it.
I kind of agree with some of the assumptions behind delaying a lockdown i.e. the fear it would prove increasingly ineffectual the longer a lockdown lasted..  Analogous to forming three ranks and letting the swarm of zulus get right up close before taking action for maximum effect with your limited resources.
Think the messaging currently makes sense so as to not be scaring the public into further panic behaviour by implying a lockdown is imminent.. probably needs to be systems in place that aren't there yet or which could be better, and which mass herd behaviour now wouldn't help prepare. We'll only know on the other side!
But can also understand Jeremy Hunt's point doing the rounds today, that we could be taking greater measures to increase social isolation like in Taiwan etc.. Just don't see how that approach is sustainable for very long.. will be interesting to see how Italy fares in a couple of weeks.. also their 'lockdown' doesn't appear 'that' draconian - would the most effective approach not be to enforce emergency laws against groups of the most vulnerable to remain socially isolated for their own sake and that of the health service?

[mrjonathanr]

Just watched Jeremy Hunt on the news. First time I have agreed with him since Leveson. He looked terrified.

Whatever the issues around timing, I do think the govt is squandering opportunities to get the public to plan ahead now, as well as slow the spread more effectively in its earlier stages.

60k at Cheltenham?

[Andy W]

France is shutting schools and colleges from Monday, just watched Macron, quite impressed with him after the guff from Boris and Trump.

[Offwidth]

I'm not just agreeing with Jeremy Hunt on concerns on slow government action. For the first time I am seriously worried about the honesty of their data. The big headline is we are 4 weeks behind Italy but if you look at the Italian data we are at Feb 26th in terms of deaths and cases. Where is the extra two weeks coming from?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

[tomtom]

Offwidth. The extra weeks are because our cases have not accelerated as fast as Italy in the early stages. Our curve isn’t as steep.

I listened to the statement/press conference for quite a while. BJ is just a front man. But the CMO and CSO were open with their reasons - and there was no attempt to shy away from any interviewers questions etc...

Whilst it may seem sensible to lock stuff down now - I also get it that people can only handle that for so long and the danger is people emerging from the lockdown prematurely.

That said - there’s a slightly scary article in the guardian citing recent research showing that 40-80% of transmission was before people were symptomatic... and people were at their most dangerous/virus shedding before they developed any symptoms. Which implies that self isolation post diagnosis (even if only suspected) will only be part effective - and that a full on China style lockdown may be the only way.

[BrutusTheBear]

I'm not just agreeing with Jeremy Hunt on concerns on slow government action. For the first time I am seriously worried about the honesty of their data. The big headline is we are 4 weeks behind Italy but if you look at the Italian data we are at Feb 26th in terms of deaths and cases. Where is the extra two weeks coming from?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

  Could they be waiting for things to be proportionally similar?

I think our current government is the least trustworthy collection of self servers you could possibly imagine.  I think the main priority will be to ensure the least amount of financial damage to their own accumulated wealth and that of their donors.  I wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised to discover that profit is being made from the situations. I don’t believe they give a shit about loosing a few proles, so long as there is enough worker bees remaining.
Looks like I will be staying home for 7 days...

[petejh]

It seems to my punter mind that in this circumstance you can break the population into two important distinct groups:
1. at high risk of becoming seriously ill. (age group 60+)
2. at low risk of becoming seriously ill. (age group under 60)

Assuming you want to save the maximum number of lives whilst aiming for the minimum economic impact, then wouldn't the most rational thing to do be to impose an extremely draconian isolation measure - enforced by martial law if necessary - on the group at high risk of becoming seriously ill. That would lower the spike of severely ill. And it's fortunate that the most vulnerable group are also economically the least productive (I'm guessing?), so enforcing isolation on this group is less economically damaging than it would be for isolation of age group 18-60.

Allow the group at low risk of becoming seriously ill to continue to go about their daily business.

Holes in that reasoning?

[tomtom]

over 60’s are mostly Tory voters? 😂 (which is actually true..)

[mrjonathanr]

Holes in that reasoning?

That you can selectively control transmission rates in the two populations.

[Oldmanmatt]

Holes in that reasoning?

That you can selectively control transmission rates in the two populations.

That the data suggests the risks of serious illness in much younger (than 60) victims is quite a bit greater than you seem to imagine?

[tomtom]

Holes in that reasoning?

That you can selectively control transmission rates in the two populations.

It would change transmission rates within the populations - and also change the exposure or vulnerability.

I suspect this was what BJ was hinting at in his presser. ‘Taking more care of the elderly’ as in putting them in special measures.

Is Shark 60 yet? 😃

[petejh]

Holes in that reasoning?

That the data suggests the risks of serious illness in much younger (than 60) victims is quite a bit greater than you seem to imagine?

What does it 'seem' to you that I imagine? And what data?


I'm going off these figures for the most 'at risk' groups:




and

[Will Hunt]

Maybe I'm putting too much store in that Medium article, but I was very surprised by the Government's response, given that the only useful measure that can now be employed is social distancing and that any small delay makes a big impact on effectiveness. Having said that, I totally get the concept of not being able to go too early for pragmatic reasons. But I do think people are ready to take the necessary steps to slow the spread.


In other news, I found a house in Moigny-sur-Ecole that offered free cancellation until the 29th August. No BMC insurance (new policies won't have any coverage for virus related claims) on offer so fingers crossed that this has all blown over by then! 
I guess I have to hold off on booking the ferry till closer to the time, and hope that insurance is then being offered?

[Oldmanmatt]

Holes in that reasoning?

That the data suggests the risks of serious illness in much younger (than 60) victims is quite a bit greater than you seem to imagine?

What does it 'seem' to you that I imagine? And what data?


I'm going off these figures for the most 'at risk' groups:




and

Exactly what I said, you are conflating fatality with “serious illness”.

Many people are requiring extended care, in hospital. Often weeks in duration, not days and not limited to over 60’s. In the linked data earlier in the thread, it seems that is age related, in terms of likelihood, but the significant tipping point seems closer to 40 than 60.

Many of the people posting here fall into that category.