I think 10000 - 15000 people are killed by flu in Uk every year, surely coronavirus will mainly take a big chunk of this group and not a group on top of this.
Have a read of what's going on in Italy Gav. It's on top. Why would people stop getting normal flu? Plus once the hospitals are full, people start dying who wouldn't have.
Quote from: gme on March 11, 2020, 12:56:11 pmI think 10000 - 15000 people are killed by flu in Uk every year, surely coronavirus will mainly take a big chunk of this group and not a group on top of this. The UK population is 66.44 milliionWe're told to expect between 40% and 80% to be infectedCase fatality rates quoted range from 1% to 5%Based on those figures the UK deathtoll would be between 265,760 and 2,657,600
Both of my parents would be f**ked if they get it i suspect but the same could be said of any flu.
No idea where the 40-80% figures come from as this is far worse than any pandemic ever. Worse cases are 30% ish.
For this to have the same death toll as the flu does each year, based on a 3% death rate from Coronavirus we will need to have 43 million cases in the uk.
Quote from: gme on March 11, 2020, 12:56:11 pmI think 10000 - 15000 people are killed by flu in Uk every year, surely coronavirus will mainly take a big chunk of this group and not a group on top of this. QuoteFor this to have the same death toll as the flu does each year, based on a 3% death rate from Coronavirus we will need to have 43 million cases in the uk. Eh? 3% of 43 million is 1,290,000. For 15,000 to die at 3% we'd need 0.5 million cases, or 0.75% infected.Italy's stats today: 10,100 cases, 649 deaths, 724 recovered.
A longer post - on a different point. I've had a few conversations and been mulling the following over the last few days....We don't know how this is all going to pan out at the moment (for the better or for the worse) - but I hope some positives will come from this too. These include:1. Changing the 9-5 in the office work ethic - and making homeworking and remote working more the norm than the exception. I hope and suspect that many changes in the workplace that are happening right now because of CV19 will lead to a long lasting shift in this. Of course many jobs require a workplace - but many in our largely service driven economy do not - and I hope this can show that people can carry on doing whatever spreadsheet shuffling they may do equally as well at home as at work. 2. Putting a dent in our short haul flight addiction. Maybe less optimism for this - folk may well return to business as usual once this changes. But - with the travel restrictions and downturn in flying I hope people start to realise that they don't need to have five europe mini breaks a year and can have just as relaxing/equivalent break closer to home (with less emissions required...). There are lots of positives in terms of widening peoples perspectives and breaking down cultural barriers of going to lots of places - but I can't help but think we do too much of it. 3. A slower pace of life. Already (from my observations) the roads and public transport are noticably quieter... Not so much self quarantine, but people making concious decisions to go out less, spending more time at home etc.. are these necessarily bad things? (thuogh it may just lead to Netflix dependancy issues :D )4. If we do less - will we consume less - and leading to a wider point does this mean less of an emphasis on the growth growth growth economic model that the world seems to have subscribed to? I doubt CV19 will stop this - but maybe putting a dent in it and slowing things down globally isnt such a bad thing... (I await someone with stocks and shares pension/isa/savings to come back at me otherwise with this..)Anyway - just some general musings about how it may change the world we live in - possibly in some positive ways. None of the above is evidence based
How bad it will be will depend entirely on how quickly we move into lockdown. Hopefully we will do so early and the worst of it will be people moaning that it didn't seem bad enough to justify it.
Btw, Gav, the point about all these measures is that for them to actually be effective, you have to implement them before you think you need to. By the time you shut the stable door the horse has bolted.
What's the point of having a lockdown when it's already become widespread among the population?
Quote from: Will Hunt on March 11, 2020, 02:31:11 pmBtw, Gav, the point about all these measures is that for them to actually be effective, you have to implement them before you think you need to. By the time you shut the stable door the horse has bolted. I think thats probably Gavs point.....
Wasnt the lockdown in China a proper one with no movement at all. As far as i am aware you can still do most things in Italy just not large gatherings, School closures and your asked to keep a bit of personal space.