[andy popp]

I think there are going to be very large amounts of widely distributed economic pain.

[Nibile]

Still better than widely distributed amounts of deaths...
Surreal moment.

[andy popp]

True, though there may be both, sadly.

[SA Chris]

Still better than widely distributed amounts of deaths...
Surreal moment.

If I was you I'd just stay in your house and do brutal workouts on weights and fingerboard.

No change there then!!

[Nibile]

No change at all, I can tell you.
 

[tomtom]

But the effect on middle age suicide rates and infanticide needs to be considered  if you lock parents inside with their children for 4 weeks.

I've started stockpiling lego.

[mrjonathanr]

Don’t worry though teachers. I suggested you could all just play catch up by reducing your summer hols to two weeks. I knew you wouldn’t want any more time of work.

I don’t want time off school. I want my kids to pass their exams, with excellent grades.

[gme]

I knew that was the case which is why i suggested you would all be happy to give up your summer holidays to help out.

It will be tabled at the DofE meeting today. The person i was speaking with was pretty sure they will have to go for the extended Easter break as things stand.

[Offwidth]

A geographical information summary has been  posted

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england

[mrjonathanr]

I knew that was the case which is why i suggested you would all be happy to give up your summer holidays to help out

It won’t help out with any current exams tho Gav- the last ones finish in June, lots are in May, and all the Spanish orals (which I examine) are in 3 weeks. So I am praying we are open till then, at least...

[gme]

I know, my son is sitting his GCSEs this year so we are hoping for no disruption as well, not sure thats going to happen though.

Guess the exams will go ahead but not helpful if he misses 3-4 weeks of lesson time.

[mrjonathanr]

Well good luck to him. Depending on what the DfE decides it may be possible for schools to run reduced schedules focusing on exam groups.

[tomtom]

We're trying to re-arrange field trips here amongst the shifting sands of changing government and University advice. Within 24 hours we've changed from do whatever you like apart from Italy/China etc.. to non essential OSeas travel cancelled to all OSeas and non-essential UK travel stopped. And now, no UK travel on public transport. Which raises questions for those who use public transport to go to work etc..

For once I don't blame them (university admin) - they're trying to figure out what to do when the situation changes almost hourly... we've had at least 3 missives today... and an extra two missives trying to explain the meaning of the other missives.

I doubt we'll be open after easter hols (which apart from exams wouldnt be too crippling to students) - and wonder whether we'll be open next week... Staff have already been given the option of not coming in if they don't feel happy with coming in...

[gme]

Well good luck to him. Depending on what the DfE decides it may be possible for schools to run reduced schedules focusing on exam groups.

This was mentioned as an option. Guess w will just have to deal with what we are given. I am not overly concerned with the whole thing other than the effect it is having on the economy which may last a lot longer than a bit of flu.

[gme]

We're trying to re-arrange field trips here amongst the shifting sands of changing government and University advice. Within 24 hours we've changed from do whatever you like apart from Italy/China etc.. to non essential OSeas travel cancelled to all OSeas and non-essential UK travel stopped. And now, no UK travel on public transport. Which raises questions for those who use public transport to go to work etc..

Where is this advice coming from. We have just told all the staff to get on with everything as normal until we are told otherwise. I was in our Holland offices last week and they are doing the same. Obviously Italy and China are out but to my knowledge you can travel anywhere else under any means.

[Ru]

For once I don't blame them (university admin) - they're trying to figure out what to do when the situation changes almost hourly... we've had at least 3 missives today... and an extra two missives trying to explain the meaning of the other missives.

The government has been relatively transparent about this, with a bit of reading between the lines. It's not going to roll out the big guns (bans on public meetings/movement restrictions etc) at this stage because it thinks, probably fairly, that if it does it now, the public will either ignore it because the situation isn't that bad yet, or by the time it is that bad, the public will have fatigued and will ignore it.

So the restrictions are going to roll in gradually over the next few weeks and the situation will change quickly. If you are planning ahead, do so on the basis of what is likely to be the situation in 2 weeks, not what they are saying now. As a rough guide, Italy is 2-3 weeks ahead of us in terms of case numbers and they have gone into complete lockdown. It's not unreasonable to assume something similar will happen here despite the denials.

On the plus side, as the situation is going to get predictably worse, the markets probably have a long way left to fall as they seem to be reacting to news rather than any sort of forecasting. You can save your pension by shorting the market on the way down, I have, it's working well (thus far).

[Johnny Brown]

Well put, that's precisely the discussion we've had at work today. We're working on the basis we'll be open next week but likely to be closed for an extended period over Easter.

[petejh]

On the plus side, as the situation is going to get predictably worse, the markets probably have a long way left to fall as they seem to be reacting to news rather than any sort of forecasting. You can save your pension by shorting the market on the way down, I have, it's working well (thus far).

Admire your opportunism but that seems a risky strategy! Especially if doing it with money you can't afford to lose. Obviously everyone's circumstances are different but this year *could* be a good opportunity to be buying into the market for the long-term, though most won't for similar reasons shelves are cleared of toilet roll. Suppose it depends on the length of time before planning to take your pension, if I was staring at an imminent 20% loss I might start gambling!

[Bradders]

Staff have already been given the option of not coming in if they don't feel happy with coming in...

This really is the era of the "snowflake" isn't it...

On the plus side, as the situation is going to get predictably worse, the markets probably have a long way left to fall as they seem to be reacting to news rather than any sort of forecasting. You can save your pension by shorting the market on the way down, I have, it's working well (thus far).

Not sure I agree with many of these points!

Yes markets have panicked in the last couple of weeks but the biggest fall - yesterday - was precipitated by the combination of the unknown factor (CV-19) and a known factor (Saudi Arabia ramping oil production, which can be tracked through to a real and lasting economic impact worldwide) which produced a market shock. People are trying to price in the economic impact and whilst the news flow on CV-19 is consistently pointing towards an escalation it seems fair to keep marking the impact higher.

I do agree there's further to go.

With regard to your pension;
a) if you have more than a handful of years until retirement then this whole episode will be a distant memory by the time that comes around, and should provide a decent entry point for ongoing contributions.
b) if you have less than 5 years to go then you ought not to be in equities to any great extent, in which case impact should have been limited to positive. If you are in equities with that little time before needing the money then...well...I wouldn't want to gamble losing any more!

Edit: then again if you have big balls and cash to spare then have at it!

[mark s]

at work im in a share save. 150 quid max in a month and you get the same you buy for free. last month you paid for 3 and got 6, not far off 4 and 8 now. they will rebound eventually.

[Ru]

 

Not sure I agree with many of these points!

Conversely, I don't disagree with any of your points. Except the snowflake bit.

[tomtom]

Bradders - I think my colleague in the office next door who has had pneumonia twice in the last year (and still had a hacking cough), my PHD student with immune deficiency  staying away is very sensible behaviour. 

Not a snowflake. Whatever that horrible term means.

[dunnyg]

What tomtom said. Get some empathy.

[spidermonkey09]

TTTs employer sounds like a decent one. Mine will be hanging on to office based staff until the government forces their hand at gunpoint...

"snowflake" is almost always a way of missing the point in favour of a cheap shot. It's easy to say there's nothing to worry about if you are young with no underlying health conditions (I do!), but I think it's worth remembering that employers should definitely be giving those who are more vulnerable the choice at this stage.

[mrjonathanr]

Hi spidermonkey, if what Silvia Stringhini says here is true, it does not tally with only the oldest/illest being in danger:
https://twitter.com/silviast9/status/1237334622041669633

10% is ICU, 55% hospitalized!

The situation in Italy seems very extreme with lots of patients suffering from bilateral pneumonia- quite different to what I had understood the illness to be.