[Nigel]

Exactly Pete, that is the challenge for the opposition parties. The question is how to solve it?

Anyway, more grist to the mill. Thought the below was interesting. Once you know that the conservatives can win a general election pretty much on the votes of the elderly, you can see why they don't care two hoots about rampant house price inflation, will happily give below inflation wage rises plus increase NI on working age people during a cost of living crisis, pay only token lip service to climate change, and yet continue to harp on about Brexit and immigration. But also still put on a bit of a facade of caring about the NHS. Because it all plays well with older voters. This from 2019:

[Bradders]

This from 2019:

Am I being dense; why does each horizontal line not add up to 100?

[seankenny]

However I think it is also the conservative party which has an identity crisis at the moment. They're very divided.

Yes, so they'll probably (and deserve) to lose the next election, if Labour gets its act together. Labour last won with Tony  Blair espousing the big tent actively appealing to other political faiths to join up while the Tories were massively divided on Europe. The last 10 years has had a consistent message from Labour MPs that they don't like anyone who isn't ideologically pure and won't work with them. It's not a way to win people over to your cause...

I think what’s interesting about this is that it’s clearly a common perception based on the Corbyn years, but there’s a bit of a mismatch with reality. Most Labour MPs didn’t like Corbyn, didn’t like the far left’s purity obsession and definitely want non-Labour voters to vote for them. Damaged brand perceptions are definitely a thing!

[Nigel]

Good question Bradders! Basically the respondents were asked to pick from a list of 26 items the top 3 priorities which influenced their vote. The graphic above shows the results concerning a select 6 of these questions. I suppose the author could have done a graphic with all 26, but I can see why these 6 were chosen as it highlights differences between age groups. For instance there was no difference on "Planning / wind farms" (topical!) - as no-one from any age group put this in their top 3 voting priorities.

Put simply, if you asked someone 65+ their top 3 voting priorities in 2019 the most likely answer was "NHS, Get Brexit Done, Immigration". The same question to someone 18-24 or 25-34 was most likely to yield "NHS, Climate Change, Cost of Living / Prices / Inflation". I suspect little has changed.

Why the graphic has 0-100% along the bottom I have no idea as that is very misleading.

If you want the data then it is on this link https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-GE-2019-post-vote-poll-Full-tables.xlsx  Cross ref columns BB-BG with rows 168-193.

[webbo]

Are you supposed to have some sort of miraculous conversation at the age of 65 that turns you blue.
If so I must be a late developer 

[TobyD]

https://news.sky.com/story/the-energy-security-strategy-has-something-in-it-to-disappoint-everyone-12584514

A pithy analysis of what a tossed off load of back of a fag packet drivel the government's energy strategy is. 

Or from the BBC:
BBC News - Why many experts aren't impressed with the UK's energy plans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61022678

Or here:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2022/apr/07/johnsons-political-cowardice-applies-the-brake-to-cheap-energy-as-he-bets-nuclear?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

[TobyD]

This is a pretty good article, although I'm afraid it's paywalled: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-tory-party-used-to-be-led-by-people-who-made-real-sacrifices-pmdmtkq86

By Matthew Syed, detailing how he feels that the gradual erosion of public trust is the worst thing about this government. He opines that the sense of entitlement and privilege among the party's top tier has overtaken any adherence to fact or expertise, and that a monoculture of public school followed by Oxford education means that they can't see how their behaviour appears from the outside.

[mrjonathanr]

Exactly the same points raised by Andrew Rawnsley in the Observer this morning, with a focus on Sunak.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/10/stench-entitlement-now-oozing-from-rishi-sunaks-home-as-well-as-boris-johnsons

I won’t quote his punchline, but it sums up the obvious very neatly.

[largeruk]

This is a pretty good article, although I'm afraid it's paywalled: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-tory-party-used-to-be-led-by-people-who-made-real-sacrifices-pmdmtkq86

By Matthew Syed, detailing how he feels that the gradual erosion of public trust is the worst thing about this government. He opines that the sense of entitlement and privilege among the party's top tier has overtaken any adherence to fact or expertise, and that a monoculture of public school followed by Oxford education means that they can't see how their behaviour appears from the outside.

https://archive.ph/P1yw8 

[mrjonathanr]

Hard to argue with any of that.

[TobyD]

Hard to argue with any of that.

Particularly when George Eustice was interviewed yesterday about trying to expedite food in the Dover chaos to stop British food business from total collapse if they can't export. The minister's reply was that it was too difficult and they wouldn't be doing anything about it.
Charming.

[mrjonathanr]

Well now, this is an interesting development:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/12/boris-johnson-and-rishi-sunak-fined-for-breaking-covid-lockdown-laws

 

[danm]

I'd say surely they have to go now, but nothing is beyond this gang of crooks and charlatans. It was also begs the question - which horrorshow would replace them? The modest Truss, the warm and human Patel, Gove of the Ferengi or Raab with his outstanding grasp of geography.

[mrjonathanr]

Maybe a Williamson-Grayling joint ticket?

with Karen Bradley in no 11

[seankenny]

One of the Downing Street parties took place a week after we’d buried Dad. Who died alone in hospital and all we had was a face time call a few hours before he passed away.

As you can imagine, pretty sour mood in our house this afternoon.

[mrjonathanr]

I can understand how infuriating it must be to think that the people who have been setting the rules have not been following the rules, Mr speaker, because I  was also furious to see that clip. And I apologise unreservedly for the offence up and down the country and I apologise for the offence that it gives.

edit- quote added

[mrjonathanr]

Sorry for your loss Sean.

[edshakey]

Roger Gale and Dominic Ross already saying now is not the time to remove him, with Ukraine crisis ongoing. Given their vocality on the issue when the news broke originally, I see this as a pretty clear indication that we will have to wait a while longer. If even those who have voiced their lack of confidence in the past think he should stay on, then those who were quiet before would see this as a perfect way to keep their heads down this time round.

Sorry to hear that Sean, can only imagine how angering this must be for you + family.

[Wellsy]

Using Ukraine as an excuse is disgusting beyond words tbh

What callous, cynical scumbags they are

[Will Hunt]

Yeah, I bet Vlad is absolutely shitting it that Johnson will stay in No10. If it weren't for that meddling PM he would have steamed into Kyiv unopposed.

[TobyD]

Yeah, I bet Vlad is absolutely shitting it that Johnson will stay in No10. If it weren't for that meddling PM he would have steamed into Kyiv unopposed.

Quite. He's doing absolutely f*** all towards Ukraine that any other MP couldn't do. He's a lazy, ignorant liar and a cheat and he should have gone already. Obviously he'll never resign his treasured world king status, and he'll be going nowhere.

There a shred of hope in the 2 snap polls that show over 50% of the public think he should resign, probably not though.
https://news.sky.com/story/partygate-more-than-half-of-voters-think-that-boris-johnson-should-resign-after-fine-12589002

[Bradders]

Well he won't resign, and it looks like there's very little momentum from the Tories to get rid of him so we're stuck with him for a little longer at least.

I can see him being fined again for other parties, given they're going in chronological order and are only currently on June 2020. It is also distinctly possible the Tories will be absolutely hammered at the local elections in May; that might finally be enough to see his party get rid.

The biggest problem is the lack of an obvious alternative. Clearly Rishi is now screwed (and there may well be a reshuffle on the cards soon that sees him sidelined). Truss? Raab? Rees-Mogg? Hunt? Patel? Gove? 

[mrjonathanr]

The biggest problem is the lack of an obvious alternative. Clearly Rishi is now screwed (and there may well be a reshuffle on the cards soon that sees him sidelined). Truss? Raab? Rees-Mogg? Hunt? Patel? Gove? 

Whether he stays or goes, I do not see another Tory leader who might be significantly better for the country. There are better men eg Tom Tugendhat or Robert Halfon and there must be women of the calibre of Justine Greening, but realistically they aren’t contenders and I doubt a new leadership would change the country’s fortunes much.

On the one hand a Johnson- Sunak leadership going into the next election might be better for Labour’s chances and the hope of some competent government.

However, for me the key issue is the damage to public trust in government. This is another nail in its coffin and the true winner wil be populism, wherever that leads.

Edit - quoting Bradders

[TobyD]

Grant Shapps' absolutely pathetic defence of the PM on the today programme this morning constituted any number of laughable statements.  Perhaps the best was that we were the first country to roll out a covid vaccine, or that he didn't realise he was breaking the rules because he didn't understand them, so he hasn't knowingly misled parliament. 

Sadly I think he'll probably stay,  even if the local elections go badly. 

[mrjonathanr]

There are plenty of Tory MPs desperate enough for advancement they’ll debase themselves with any nonsensical defence of the indefensible. In fairness, they have had plenty of practice recently.

The standout quote for me was the MP shown in a news night montage yesterday:

There were no parties, but if there were, they definitely di not break the rules.

The depths of stupidity are bottomless.