[spidermonkey09]

David Milliband is in no way irrelevant, he has a far more influential and effectual position now, than Corbyn and McDonnell are very likely to ever have.

Am I missing something here?

[mrjonathanr]

He’s director of the IRC so he gets to help people. Corbyn gets to talk about helping people. Not quite as impactful?

[TobyD]

He’s director of the IRC so he gets to help people. Corbyn gets to talk about helping people. Not quite as impactful?

Yes, thank you that is what I was referred to.
On a world stage, Corbyn is totally irrelevant, Milliband is not, the IRC have been doing a lot in the developing human tragedy that is Syria. Arguably, that's also significantly more important than whatever the fuck it is Boris Johnson does with his time.

[TobyD]

Has the leaders' question time spelt the considerable demise of hope of not getting a conservative majority? If anyone much pays attention to these things,  everyone seemed to agree that Jo Swinson got absolutely hammered,  the only person who thought Corbyn did well was surprise surprise,  Owen Jones:

The Question Time leaders' special: our panel’s verdicts
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/22/question-time-leaders-special-boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

BBC News - Question Time debate: No comfortable ride in election special for party leaders
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50525528

Johnson did get some pretty stout criticism,  but arguably came out of it slightly better. Sturgeon seemed to be the winner but not really sure what she was doing there, given that she doesn't have a seat in Westminster?

Really hoping that any of the opposition parties have a pretty bloody good plan of how to turn it around, but not optimistic. 

[Offwidth]

Do you really think QT is that influential? Swinson got hammered  because she stands against the idiocy of the English drift to political extremes and the BBC 'balanced audience' will be in denial about that.  Sturgeon (being there as the party leader) is probably seen as an irrelevance by such an audience, so gets off lightly. Its a terrible format for such a combined leader's debate.

Anything but determined optimism is daft if progressives want to win: just 40 Labour marginals to defend in the Midlands and North if the SNP take most tory seats in Scotland and the Lib Dems pick up around 10 in the S and SW. In an aftermath discussion on Newsnight Sam Grimah tried to point out his local polling (like that of other Lib Dem target seats) was doing very well indeed but the presenter was having none of it (Lib Dems are historically efficient at targeting seats).

[Offwidth]

I.e. it wasn't enough that he managed to mobilise the youth vote on its own,

I know this gets trotted out a lot but there was no significant increase in youth turnout between 2015 and 2017 (it might have even decreased when you look at the error bands of the polling) and overall turnout increased by 2.5%.

It wasn't the youth who enabled Corbyn to do better than expected.

Really?
https://www.ft.com/content/6734cdde-550b-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f

Interesting article that seems to explain what galpinos is referencing; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42747342

The data showing elsewhere on larger survey numbers and smaller error bars (up to +/-10% is huge) directly contradicts that study. Calling it gold standard is based on what exactly?  I'd add that the original 'youthquake' data was based on under 35s something this survey ignores... even this survey shows a clear increase in under 35 voters... voters who traditionally are more likely to vote Labour... especially so in a 'two horse race' like 2017 became. There was clearly a youth effect in the under 35s. There was also an SNP effect and probably a dissaffected with May UKIP voter not voting effect.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40219338

[Stu Littlefair]

Has the leaders' question time spelt the considerable demise of hope of not getting a conservative majority? If anyone much pays attention to these things,  everyone seemed to agree that Jo Swinson got absolutely hammered,  the only person who thought Corbyn did well was surprise surprise,  Owen Jones:

If you really think Johnson came out of that better than Corbyn then your prejudices were watching, and not your eyes. Corbyn was hammered at the start (particularly on anti-semitism) but was warmly applauded throughout and occasionally cheered. Johnson was harangued throughout and occasionally jeered.

[Offwidth]

The recent polling on those London seats which are now three way marginals with Labour in third (all three seats are outside of the range of the main top ten Lib Dem target seats  in the S and SW)

https://www.markpack.org.uk/160332/three-constituency-polls-show-lib-dem-vote-up-very-sharply-in-key-seats/

As the article asks.. will Labour voters vote tactically in such constituencies to keep out some pretty unappetising tories?

If the tories lose seats like these getting a majority looks very tough indeed.

 

[TobyD]

Has the leaders' question time spelt the considerable demise of hope of not getting a conservative majority? If anyone much pays attention to these things,  everyone seemed to agree that Jo Swinson got absolutely hammered,  the only person who thought Corbyn did well was surprise surprise,  Owen Jones:

If you really think Johnson came out of that better than Corbyn then your prejudices were watching, and not your eyes. Corbyn was hammered at the start (particularly on anti-semitism) but was warmly applauded throughout and occasionally cheered. Johnson was harangued throughout and occasionally jeered.

Interesting, I didn't actually watch it, just listened to a few short bits and read various reports. Perhaps that reflects what I was reading, ( too much Times? )

[Offwidth]

Another Guardian pundit who agrees with me (most of his 'don't dismiss local differences' evidence is about a Labour seat that should be safe but might go tory... so hardly extreme optimism). His main thesis is the finishing oine for Corbyn is maybe as low as 270 compared to the 321 that Boris needs.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/22/labour-majority-corbyn-downing-street

[Fultonius]

Has the leaders' question time spelt the considerable demise of hope of not getting a conservative majority? If anyone much pays attention to these things,  everyone seemed to agree that Jo Swinson got absolutely hammered,  the only person who thought Corbyn did well was surprise surprise,  Owen Jones:

If you really think Johnson came out of that better than Corbyn then your prejudices were watching, and not your eyes. Corbyn was hammered at the start (particularly on anti-semitism) but was warmly applauded throughout and occasionally cheered. Johnson was harangued throughout and occasionally jeered.

Interesting, I didn't actually watch it, just listened to a few short bits and read various reports. Perhaps that reflects what I was reading, ( too much Times? )

It's interesting how it can be perceived. I felt that too many questions on Corbyn were "laying the man not the ball", but when it got onto policy he was hitting home.

Johnson pulled most things back to brexit, and when his trustworthyness was questions, he said he "delivered on his plans" when he was mayor, while vaguely shrugging and accepting that 9 years of Tory austerity was basically fucking the county. He didn't even seem to try to defend it. He looked pretty fatigued.

I decided to delve into the spectator blog afterwards, and they seemed to think he was "on point" and got his message across well.

How anyone can see the two visions of the UK and chose the Tory one, after their last 9 years is beyond me.

[BrutusTheBear]

All the talk about whether Jeremy Corbyn is being mis-represented by the 'mainstream' media doesn't change the fact that this a clearly a radical and left wing labour manifesto.  Some on here probably see this as a good thing, from a personal political/economic viewpoint and a more general view of the electoral position I think it's very much a bad thing.

It is absolutely a good thing for education, for the NHS, for social care, for disabled people, for women, for children, for those living in poverty.  Admittedly it will be not so good for food banks or billionaires.  Dislike the narrative that this is extreme or far left, maybe we have been thrown so deep into the austerity hole that it seems that way but if you compare the proposals to other countries it ain’t that radical.

[tomtom]

Latest Observer/oppinium poll has the torys on a 19 point lead .. 😱

[TobyD]

All the talk about whether Jeremy Corbyn is being mis-represented by the 'mainstream' media doesn't change the fact that this a clearly a radical and left wing labour manifesto.  Some on here probably see this as a good thing, from a personal political/economic viewpoint and a more general view of the electoral position I think it's very much a bad thing.

It is absolutely a good thing for education, for the NHS, for social care, for disabled people, for women, for children, for those living in poverty.  Admittedly it will be not so good for food banks or billionaires.  Dislike the narrative that this is extreme or far left, maybe we have been thrown so deep into the austerity hole that it seems that way but if you compare the proposals to other countries it ain’t that radical.

Speaking as someone who works for the NHS, I'm not so sure. I think that throwing a vast amount of money of it of the order that Labour propose without first reforming the way that health and social care work will result in massive waste without much lasting tangible benefit. I think that all of the parties are terrified of putting off elderly voters and avoiding the real issues.

I think that you might be in a tiny minority in not seeing Labours manifesto as extremely radical. I'm not saying that that's intrinsically a bad thing, by the way.

[spidermonkey09]

He’s director of the IRC so he gets to help people. Corbyn gets to talk about helping people. Not quite as impactful?

Yes, thank you that is what I was referred to.
On a world stage, Corbyn is totally irrelevant, Milliband is not, the IRC have been doing a lot in the developing human tragedy that is Syria. Arguably, that's also significantly more important than whatever the fuck it is Boris Johnson does with his time.

I thought we were talking about plausible UK politicians rather than literally anyone on the world stage who is influential! On that basis I'd be happy for Jurgen Klopp to give PM a go, he's influential...

I also heartily second Stu's interpretation of the debate. I also read the Times courtesy of my grandparents subscription and the anti Labour vibe is beyond a joke in a supposedly sensible newspaper. Today they had a piece with someone who owned 27 properties giving a sob story about potentially paying more tax!

[TobyD]

the anti Labour vibe is beyond a joke in a supposedly sensible newspaper. Today they had a piece with someone who owned 27 properties giving a sob story about potentially paying more tax!

Yes that was rather silly, and The Times his noticeably more partial as soon as there's an election called. However, it's no worse than the Guardian in this respect, just with a different slant. Both publish columnists with a range of opinions, and I think you just have to bear the editorial line in mind when you read them, or any other newspaper.

Analysis of another poll predicting comfortable majority for the Conservatives:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/11/conservatives-course-majority-boris-johnson-could-lose-his-seat

But, interestingly saying that it's not impossible that Johnson, Raab, IDS and Zac Goldsmith could all lose their seats even if they do. I wonder what the hell would happen then?

[BrutusTheBear]

I think that you might be in a tiny minority in not seeing Labours manifesto as extremely radical. I'm not saying that that's intrinsically a bad thing, by the way.

I might be?!  The point I was making is that it isn’t radical, it is being framed as such but if we actually compare the proposals to other countries rather than our shite state of affairs it all seems very reasonable/ sensible.

[Offwidth]

Latest Observer/oppinium poll has the torys on a 19 point lead .. 😱
[/quote

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer

In the article it says they have changed the mechanism to deal with Brexit not standing in tory seats. If you read the small print, the lead over Labour is the same (16% ) in Labour marfinals and they need close to that given the local issues and Brexit standing. As a progressive I'm more worried about Labour seats in London.

Also in the Observer:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats

[BrutusTheBear]

Latest Observer/oppinium poll has the torys on a 19 point lead .. 😱
[/quote

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer

In the article it says they have changed the mechanism to deal with Brexit not standing in tory seats. If you read the small print, the lead over Labour is the same (16% ) in Labour marfinals and they need close to that given the local issues and Brexit standing. As a progressive I'm more worried about Labour seats in London.

Also in the Observer:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats

Polling is largely based on historical voting demographics, samples target particular demographics based on who voted in the last GE and are weighted accordingly.  What they can’t predict is who will be motivated to get out and vote. We could also go into who owns the main polling companies that are published and quoted by MSM too and question their impartiality.  In short don’t trust the polls too much.

[mrjonathanr]

I might be?!  The point I was making is that it isn’t radical, it is being framed as such but if we actually compare the proposals to other countries rather than our shite state of affairs it all seems very reasonable/ sensible.

That may be, but the key point is about electability. If enough voters find it too strong a brew the Tories will form the next government with all that implies.

Some Labour supporters decry Blair’s premiership because it marked- for Labour- a shift to the right. But in power, you can actually implement policy and socially, he achieved a lot.

Does the manifesto make a Labour administration more or less likely?

[TobyD]

Does the manifesto make a Labour administration more or less likely?

Less. The widespread nationalisation, Vat on private school fees, and wealth redistribution will make middle England run a mile. I know labour are hardly going for the home counties anyway, but I'd have thought this would put off a lot of middle class socially liberal Londoners, for example, who might otherwise vote Labour.

[seankenny]

What they can’t predict is who will be motivated to get out and vote. We could also go into who owns the main polling companies that are published and quoted by MSM too and question their impartiality.  In short don’t trust the polls too much.

So what exactly are the incentives involved for the polling companies to produce inaccurate results? Do they get more clients from being wrong? And what exactly are the mechanisms - do they employ good statisticians and then pay them to fiddle the figures? Where does the cheat occur and why has no one blown the whistle yet?

Or I could wield Occam's Razor and conclude that the average Corbyn Labour activist is paranoid and enjoys denying reality.

[IanP]

I might be?!  The point I was making is that it isn’t radical, it is being framed as such but if we actually compare the proposals to other countries rather than our shite state of affairs it all seems very reasonable/ sensible.

Does the manifesto make a Labour administration more or less likely?

Exactly - it makes a Labour government less likely imo (or more importantly and majority Tory government more likely).

I believe it is a radical manifesto including as it does a very big increase in public spending (according to the IFS to levels last seen in the mid 70s if you exclude the exceptional circumstances of the 2008 financial crash) and there's plenty of specifics I don't think are good ideas.  However I will still vote anti-tory so my personal thoughts are to an extent irrelevant, its the answer to mrjr's question that matters and the left wing of the labour party seems to keeping looking to go the route of some socialist nirvana that they believe just needs the rest of the country to remove the scales from their eyes for everything to change.   All the evidence would point to to this being another failure - it feels just like the 80s except that Johnson is possibly (probably?) worse than Thatcher. 

[spidermonkey09]

I had a bit of a crisis about this election this morning. I think the best case scenario is a hung parliament, most likely a small improved Tory majority and the worst case a thumping majority. Either way I find the whole thing profoundly depressing; say what you like about the Labour manifesto (I would fall into the camp that holds it isn't that radical in reality) but the fact there looks to be so little voter pushback after 10 years of Tory misrule I find astonishing and really sad. Is this what we've come to? People are honestly going to vote back in these liars and xenophobes (excluding Grieve et al) because they don't like the idea of paying tax in line with the rest of Europe? I truly despair.

My apologies for the likely hopelessly naive and idealistic post but I really did think simple decency/being fed up with the current state of affairs might cut through a bit more than it is. Maybe the polls will be wrong I guess...!

[mrjonathanr]

I take your point spidermonkey. Quite a lot of people haven't prospered under the Tories, but quite a lot of people have, and may not pay a great deal attention to the world outside their own experience.  Quite a lot of people are rather chauvinistic, and quite a lot believe Brexit will bring more positives than negatives. That's quite a lot of people who will be minded to vote Tory.

Add in those who also see Corbyn as a crypto-commie, and it is starting to look like a Tory majority, especially given the split in the remain minded voters between Labour and the LibDems.

The whole volatility of the electorate and collision between Brexit ideologies and usual party ideologies mean that this is not going to be a predictable election though, and likely throw up some very anomalous local results.