[Oldmanmatt]

Jess.

‘Nuff said.


Seriously though, Brutus, given the reality of Corbyn’s image and unpopularity outside of the Labour hard core, you don’t perceive your own unicorn hunting credentials?

[BrutusTheBear]

(I don't like any of your ideas comments...)

You’ve just paraphrased the entire thread. 

Point is the choice is there on the table, you can eat what’s on offer, whatever you find most palatable if you have to or have something you don’t really like for the greater good.  Maybe focus on the starters (your local candidates) rather than desert. Have a try of something different maybe see if you like it or eat the same shit you’ve been eating for the last however many years or don’t bother.  No amount whining will change it right now, dinner is served.

People with similar views to me have been eating shit they don’t like for a lifetime, I’ve certainly held my nose with regularity when voting in the past, this is how it feels. 

[mrjonathanr]

David Miliband

The ultimate in political unicorns there; so irrelevant he moved to the States years ago and has resisted every fawning attempt to coax him back since; a wise move!

Not quite; they are all unicorns in that sense as this is essentially a parlour game of what ifs and what might-have-beens. Irrelevant every one, if we are facing reality.

The 2010 election might have looked very different had Labour chosen the more dexterous and electable leader.

From that; this. McCluskey has a lot to answer for.

[Nutty]

I admire your passion, Brutus, but I think you've hugely overestimated how engaged and thoughtful the majority of the electorate are. The vast majority of people, who you or I might rarely meet or associate with, are still stuck in thinking that Conservatives are firm but careful, and Labour are kindly but wasteful. How anyone can look at the modern Conservative party and think they're a safe and steady pair of hands is beyond me, but I promise you that we'll all wake up on the 13th December (our work Christmas do. What a jolly affair that will be) and find out that most of the country think that.

Nail on the head there Will. I had a colleague at work say they were going to vote Conservative because they're good with the economy - despite them being led by Mr 'Fuck Business' and their aim to 'Get Brexit Done' which will trash the economy and the billions pissed away on no-deal Brexit preparations.

[TobyD]

David Miliband

The ultimate in political unicorns there; so irrelevant he moved to the States years ago and has resisted every fawning attempt to coax him back since; a wise move!

Not quite; they are all unicorns in that sense as this is essentially a parlour game of what ifs and what might-have-beens. Irrelevant every one, if we are facing reality.
The 2010 election might have looked very different had Labour chosen the more dexterous and electable leader.
From that; this. McCluskey has a lot to answer for.

In that he's the biggest donor to the Labour party by some margin (by which I mean that unite is).
I regularly listen to Nick Robinson's Political Thinking podcast and McCluskey is the only person who has come across as rather unpleasant. They're always asked about their personal motivations, how they came to believe what they do, and everyone else I can think of came across as human and to some extent reasonable except him.

David Milliband is in no way irrelevant, he has a far more influential and effectual position now, than Corbyn and McDonnell are very likely to ever have. It's all very well being a radical opposition with some exciting ideas but it's absolutely no use whatsoever if nowhere near enough people will vote for you. Labour are going to have to pull a pretty fucking big rabbit out of their hat to avoid getting humiliated at the election, is my current guess.

[TobyD]

Nick Clegg then?

Considerably better than either of the current two candidates for PM, and I am fully serious.
Starmer, though undoubtedly intelligent, competent and an excellent MP lacks the TV / social media charisma that you have to consider to work realistically as a leader. I really like Jess Phillips as well, but my strong suspicion is that an awful lot of people don't, and probably for the same reasons that I think she's great. (Vocal feminist, strong morals doesn't take herself seriously, not afraid to say things that might make her unpopular).
Of the actual likely successors to labour leadership, what about Emily Thornberry? Unlikely I know since she had the cheek to try to say that Labour was definitely for remain, and has since been sidelined.

[joeisidle]

I admire your passion, Brutus, but I think you've hugely overestimated how engaged and thoughtful the majority of the electorate are. The vast majority of people, who you or I might rarely meet or associate with, are still stuck in thinking that Conservatives are firm but careful, and Labour are kindly but wasteful. How anyone can look at the modern Conservative party and think they're a safe and steady pair of hands is beyond me, but I promise you that we'll all wake up on the 13th December (our work Christmas do. What a jolly affair that will be) and find out that most of the country think that.

Nail on the head there Will. I had a colleague at work say they were going to vote Conservative because they're good with the economy - despite them being led by Mr 'Fuck Business' and their aim to 'Get Brexit Done' which will trash the economy and the billions pissed away on no-deal Brexit preparations.

Couldn't agree with this more. I work in local government in an office of relatively well-educated people, but about 50% were what I'd describe as aware of politics prior to the EU referendum, with the rest not really knowing/caring and viewing it as separate to their day to day lives. Even now casting round for voting intentions,I haven't heard anything that doesn't  reflect a  relatively surface-level media representation of a party/viewpoint, e.g. "I won't vote for Labour because they'll tax me too much", "I would vote for Labour but I just don't like Corbyn, he's too divisive", "They're all the same though aren't they, Corbyn, Johnson, they all lie, what's the difference", "I voted remain but we just need to pull together and get the job done now" etc. Don't think I've heard anyone mention a manifesto, a leader's historic voting record etc, consideration of why Corbyn got in as leader in the first place etc. This is a complete finger in the air guess, but I can't help but think that if the majority of the public were that different then the Daily Mail, Sun et. al. have really been missing a trick in terms of how they've been attacking the left over the last few decades.

[Oldmanmatt]

Exactly Joe and it’s what the Labour supporters just can’t seem to see.

There is also the fact, that many people of working class background, who have dragged themselves into middle class and earning brackets; think they are now part of the Tory “gang”. They believe the Tories speak for them and Labour hate them (not helped be Labour activists that still bandy about terms like “class traitor”).
I used to think along similar lines, until I started working for senior Tories and grasped the stupefying difference between what we think of as “middle class” or “affluent” (really, just working class with tinsel and some plastic baubles) and the people who the Tories actually represent.
I have tried communicate this to my peers. They don’t get it.
I still get shit like this on my time line everyday.
The mate who shared this, grew up in Kinghorn, his Ma cleaned thecouncil offices, his Da welded in the yards building Rigs. In my 20’s  I spent many a leave period, sleeping on the floor of their council house front room. He’s a senior consultant in a major North Sea Engineering company now, his wife Jumps horses and they have several hectares near Aberdeen.
But, this is as complicated as his political thinking gets:

[TobyD]

Exactly Joe and it’s what the Labour supporters just can’t seem to see.
...

Despite Labour's undoubted effectiveness at 'organic' social media,  their image among anyone who isn't really interested in politics has fallen incredibly low I think. Corbyn is pretty much seen as an out of touch old Commie, and for some reason an out of touch over privileged mildly obese pontificating liar seems like a better bet.
For anyone who does read the news occasionally,  reports of their manifesto wont have helped.

[tomtom]

I still think this is impossible to call. In the last election Corbyn was written off (by me included) predicting impeding Tory landslide. But they didn’t happen. To my amazement...

Also - May - whilst not popular - was not unpopular with some like Boris is. She was by many seen as a safe pair of hands etc... Boris is not seen as that. The Tories have minimal centre ground appeal this time - whereas last time they did.

How all this plays out who knows - but I wouldn’t put money on anything other than a hung parliament. 

[SA Chris]

Amusingly we got some election propaganda through the post from the Scottish Cons. It still has Ruth Davidson all over it.

[Offwidth]

More propaganda

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-fake-labour-manifesto-website-fact-check-general-election-a9212076.html

[joeisidle]

I still think this is impossible to call. In the last election Corbyn was written off (by me included) predicting impeding Tory landslide. But they didn’t happen. To my amazement...

Also - May - whilst not popular - was not unpopular with some like Boris is. She was by many seen as a safe pair of hands etc... Boris is not seen as that. The Tories have minimal centre ground appeal this time - whereas last time they did.

How all this plays out who knows - but I wouldn’t put money on anything other than a hung parliament.

Completely sympathise with this view; I was equally amazed at how the 2017 election played out for Corbyn and am cautious about making the same mistake now, but do think there's less cause for optimism this time round. From memory (and happy to be proved wrong!) a key part of Corbyn's success last time round was Labour (very) narrowly hanging onto key marginals in strongly leave-voting areas - e.g. Dudley North and Newcastle-under-Lyme. I.e. it wasn't enough that he managed to mobilise the youth vote on its own, he had to retain a large section of the working class leave vote in order to achieve what was still a narrow loss to May. Part of the way this appeared to be achieved was based on Labour's deliberately ambiguous Brexit policy, i.e. we'll vote to trigger article 50, but won't rule out second referendum depending on who you ask, so everyone could read what they wanted to into the party on this front.

Since then, Labour appear to have been painted as the blockers of Brexit in certain parts of the media and dragged over the coals for their 'unclear' Brexit stance - see where the audience laughed the most in the TV debate. The idea that they'll retain as much as they did of leave voting areas, or divert the public's focus from Brexit to the NHS this time round seems unlikely, particularly as Johnson seems to be trying to guard against this through increased spending promises on public services (and appears to be more popular than May in polling). Equally, I'm not seeing any evidence that Momentum are going to be more effective in mobilising the youth vote than they did last time round, which they would need to be if they're going to offset any losses from other areas. However, not part of active campaigning so could be completely misreading this.

So, I really hope you're right, and really hope I'm making a load of rubbish assumptions in all of the above. Just feel like recent events (2017 election aside) don't inspire optimism.

[galpinos]

I.e. it wasn't enough that he managed to mobilise the youth vote on its own,

I know this gets trotted out a lot but there was no significant increase in youth turnout between 2015 and 2017 (it might have even decreased when you look at the error bands of the polling) and overall turnout increased by 2.5%.

It wasn't the youth who enabled Corbyn to do better than expected.

[Fiend]

More propaganda:

https://www.thetorymanifesto.com

[TobyD]

Two contrasting views of the labour manifesto

After a decade of decay, Labour’s manifesto offers us hope for the future
Gary Young:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/22/after-a-decade-of-decay-labours-manifesto-offers-us-hope-for-the-future?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard


Phillip Collins: (paywall)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-2019-labours-manifesto-is-mere-wishful-thinking-mflqs79sc

Hope, or wishful thinking? My thoughts are that it's basically Corbyns student dreams put down in an awful lot of paper, and that it will be the end of his leadership, but I would be content to be proved wrong by a hung parliament with a solid contingent of LDs and a few Greens.

The best possible outcome of the election would be for BJ to lose his seat (partially meant flippantly! ) But I still think he'll get a small majority, sadly.

[Will Hunt]

Despite my misgivings, it has to be said that there is a decent cohort of people who are animated Remainers or else very upset with the Conservatives and who are probably willing to vote tactically for Labour as their principle motivation is to damage the Conservatives. Quite possibly a big enough group to force a hung parliament but almost certainly outnumbered by tribal Conservatives, Brexit enthusiasts, and those who warm to Johnson's bumbling charisma.

I'm aware that this isn't a very fair view of things. If Labour are shafted: Corbyn's fault; if Labour win: in spite of Corbyn. Not very impartial but I'd be happy to admit that I'm wrong in the latter scenario if there's some evidence to demonstrate it.

[Oldmanmatt]

Bumbling charisma?

Surely you mean racist, homophobic, xenophobic and authoritarian traits, barely disguised by a scruffy, jolly, assumed personality?

That took longer to write but I feel “bumbling charisma” failed to encompass the full breadth of his talents.

[IanP]

Two contrasting views of the labour manifesto

After a decade of decay, Labour’s manifesto offers us hope for the future
Gary Young:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/22/after-a-decade-of-decay-labours-manifesto-offers-us-hope-for-the-future?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard


Phillip Collins: (paywall)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-2019-labours-manifesto-is-mere-wishful-thinking-mflqs79sc

Hope, or wishful thinking? My thoughts are that it's basically Corbyns student dreams put down in an awful lot of paper, and that it will be the end of his leadership, but I would be content to be proved wrong by a hung parliament with a solid contingent of LDs and a few Greens.

The best possible outcome of the election would be for BJ to lose his seat (partially meant flippantly! ) But I still think he'll get a small majority, sadly.

And Paul Johnson https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14595

All the talk about whether Jeremy Corbyn is being mis-represented by the 'mainstream' media doesn't change the fact that this a clearly a radical and left wing labour manifesto.  Some on here probably see this as a good thing, from a personal political/economic viewpoint and a more general view of the electoral position I think it's very much a bad thing.

[tommytwotone]

oh my dear goodness we couldn’t be further apart   

Principled, honourable, not raging Tory boy ideas and you give us Blair...

The fact you refer to folk as plebiscite too, really, are you demonstrating your own superiority in this way? 

You want someone principled that’s prepared to whore themselves out to the media. Sounding unicorn like to me

Like it or not, he led the Labour Party to 3 election wins on the bounce (one landslide), and once in power oversaw dramatic increases in spending on the NHS, his government implemented to Good Friday Agreement and implemented the Civil Partnerships Act.


All this talk of "Blairite" being used as an insult in the current Labour ranks I think does a disservice to the debt the country and the party owes him.

For any Iraq whataboutery I assume is coming I think we should put that in the same box as your lack of concerns about current Labour antisemitism.

I guess my point is - your can have the best policies in the world but you need to win elections, and to do that you need to understand how to win elections. Whatever you think about the guy, the Blairites knew how to win elections. I strongly suspect that the team around Corbyn does not.

Oh, and re: "plebiscite"- far from trying to instigate a class war - I meant it as a synonym for "voters":

https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/plebiscite


#centristdad signing off...

[Oldmanmatt]

Britain did rather well under Blair. I already said that in this thread (it’s a verifiable statement), I also said “reimagine his legacy, without Iraq”; because it would be a very, very, different legacy.

[rich d]

to sum up people's idiocy in voting, two people I know.  He's postman and his wife works in a school. They're both voting Tory - as Borris is "getting us out of Europe" and "has something about him" plus Corbyn is a "scruffy lefty" who still supports the IRA.
This is despite it obviously not being in their interest to have a Tory government.
I don't mind how people vote but at least chose for a decent reason.
On a similar strand some others were overheard saying I just want Brexit to happen now as it's getting really boring and it's depressing when you watch the news.
Fucking muppets

[Offwidth]

I.e. it wasn't enough that he managed to mobilise the youth vote on its own,

I know this gets trotted out a lot but there was no significant increase in youth turnout between 2015 and 2017 (it might have even decreased when you look at the error bands of the polling) and overall turnout increased by 2.5%.

It wasn't the youth who enabled Corbyn to do better than expected.

Really?
https://www.ft.com/content/6734cdde-550b-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f

[joeisidle]

I.e. it wasn't enough that he managed to mobilise the youth vote on its own,

I know this gets trotted out a lot but there was no significant increase in youth turnout between 2015 and 2017 (it might have even decreased when you look at the error bands of the polling) and overall turnout increased by 2.5%.

It wasn't the youth who enabled Corbyn to do better than expected.

Really?
https://www.ft.com/content/6734cdde-550b-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f

Interesting article that seems to explain what galpinos is referencing; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42747342

[shark]

Like it or not, he led the Labour Party to 3 election wins on the bounce (one landslide), and once in power oversaw dramatic increases in spending on the NHS, his government implemented to Good Friday Agreement and implemented the Civil Partnerships Act.

As I understand it the heavy lifting that led to the Good Friday Agreement was done by John Major. Blair IMO was a disappointment - I voted for him and don't think he delivered on the rhetoric especially at a time when he was riding the crest of an economic wave. He talked big on social reform but the results were lacking though there was decent investment in schools and hospitals through PFI funny money.  I'm very glad that Brown kept him from us joining the euro.