[Oldmanmatt]

I think this is where I’m at, now:

https://newsthump.com/2019/04/03/incompetent-leader-hopeful-alliance-with-rubbish-opposition-will-secure-support-for-crap-deal-that-everyone-hates/

[Nigel]

Nige is right about DD everyone; I had remembered this exactly the wrong way around.

The point about the pros of leavings customs union still stands though, unless T&L have bought out the negotiators.

Thanks stu, I thought so.

As a genuine enquiry, was this a "misrembering"? Or a misunderstanding? (Same question to Toby who seemed to agree with your original point). It's just your second paragraph seems like you're willing to extend motivation to Brexiters which I don't think does, and I think never has, existed.

Currently all the brexit process is hinging on whether or not to have a customs union with the EU it would appear. If we don't (the brexiter position) your point is that unless tate & lyle have bought off the UK trade negotiation team then in future trade deals we may be able to increase tariffs on imports to protect UK suppliers, and you say this point still stands (as a pro point) . I would say that yes it stands in theory depending on the government of the time, but it absolutely does not stand for any current tory government Brexiters, such as Davis. If you can find a single tory brexiter who wants brexit so they can increase import tariffs on anything I'll be amazed.

As I said they are free market fundamentalists, they want to drop import tariffs to zero (ideally). I can make no comments on the benefits of this as an ideology as I have no idea. I'm not a expert on international trade. But then again neither are any of us (are we?). In that I include people like David davis and other tory Brexiters who probably heard something they liked about free trade once and never let go (ignoring the fact that presumably it would only work if the whole globe joined in? Anyone? ).

Yet here we are at two minutes past midnight in the brexit process having a national nervous breakdown about whether or not to have a customs union with the EU. If anyone can give a reasoned pros and cons list either way I would be much obliged, as I confess to being totally ignorant, as I suspect is most of the country. My strong suspicion would be that honestly most of these tory Brexiters are equally ignorant / too thick to understand international trade and customs union in any depth, which makes their motivation for brexit at any cost fairly ridiculous.

Apologies for the long rambling post but it's on my phone so fiddly to edit down. I guess in summary what I'm saying is that the tory brexit lot want a particular outcome of not being in an EU customs union, and increased tariffs i.e. Protectionism for UK businesses is not it. Listing increased tariffs as a potential pro point seems to me to a) ignore who is in government currently and their motivations, and b) presume knowledge of international trade I'm not convinced many people have as things will cut both ways in a bilateral deal and will depend on the countries involved (apologies if this is a step too far! I am happy to be educated! As I say I am largely ignorant about all this).

Anyhow I expect all the above about trade is largely moot because the Irish border issue will take precedent. If that needs a customs union (minimum) to preserve good Friday then we will have one. Once again tory brexiters were either unable / too thick to understand this when they proposed brexit, or didn't care enough to find a workable solution.

[tomtom]

For some background... I've met DD twice. Once for about an hour - just me, him and a scrawny 18 year old scribe he bought along. I was not impressed. He's affable, but rather than being intellectual or constructing sensible arguments bout what we were discussing he seemed to flit from vaguely linked anecdote to anecdote. Rather like a Jeffry Archer novel...

I strongly suspect he was massively out of his depth in the Brexit negotiations.

[tomtom]

If JC and TM agree on a path - that gets voted through (and maybe if not too) then I think its probably the end for the Labour and especially Tory party.

The split in the population is so great - and across all party, social and geographic lines (mainly age and education are the descriptors of brexit intentions according to pollsters) that I can't see labour or conservative parties functioning as they have. I wonder - and probably hope that this leads to a fractionation of politics and new parties like the TiG (or whatever they morph into) and maybe whatever the Brexit equiavalent would be - come to the fore.

Fascinating times. Though I do wish they would end votes/agree shit earlier in the evening - Its affecting my amount of sleep! #soapopera

[Stu Littlefair]

A genuine misremembering Nige.

I think you are interpreting my point a bit too tightly as well, TBH. It was merely meant to serve as an example of the kind of thing one could do in a bilateral trade talk that would be harder in an EU-wide one because you don't have to tension UK interests against French or German ones.

It was probably searching for an anecdote to fit that example that led me to invert DD's tate & lyle history.

I think you are right about most of the Brexiteer's plans for a free Britannia, but not all. For example, see how hard Gove pushed as environment sec to get some protection for UK farming when the govt. published it's no-deal tariff plans.

I don't share your skepticism about MPs as a whole though. Whilst there are reports of many Tory MPs attending a "customs union for dummys" briefing, I think many others know the legislation and principles inside out. I watched the Laura Kuenssberg documentary a couple of nights ago and was struck by how principled many of the players were, and how difficult they are finding it as they question whether they are doing the right thing.

[Nigel]

Makes perfect sense stu. Yes I probably was interpreting you a bit tightly, your intended example is sound. I think I'm just interested overall in the motivations of some of the main shakers of brexit. Essentially, why are they so dead set on it? Thanks for heads up on that documentary, I'll check it out when home and have WiFi / iplayer works.

[mrjonathanr]

Makes perfect sense stu. Yes I probably was interpreting you a bit tightly, your intended example is sound. I think I'm just interested overall in the motivations of some of the main shakers of brexit. Essentially, why are they so dead set on it?

1.   Because a deregulated marked, shorn of EU environmental and employment protections, offers opportunities to make a killing if you have enough capital to begin with?
2.   Because when people are ideologically wedded to a view it becomes the only prism through which they can view things? To a man with a hammer every screw looks like a nail etc
3.   Because they genuinely believe that we are a nation who need to be shaken out of sloth by the hurricane of the unfettered free market - the Britannia Unchained view?
4.   Because there is a gut revulsion of 'Europe' and being tied to 'it'?
5.   Because it’s  career game-playing of the sort only only indulged in by those personally insulated from the consequences if it tanks?
6.   Because Empire never quite died as an idea?
7.   Because of genuine concerns about the European supranational state as a project?
8.   Because of a belief that European law diminishes UK sovereignty, whilst not recognising that absolute sovereignty in a global capitalist system is an illlusion?
9.   Because of concerns about the opacity of EU decision making?
10.   Because of a belief that EU regulations hamper the development of an industrial policy underpinned by state aid?
11.   Because of concern about the EU/Troika management of Greece when it defaulted?
12.   Because of a dislike of foreigners?
.
I suspect there's quite a range of views, left to right. but on the Tory right, I suspect mostly #1

[Yossarian]

I think you have been over-generous in your estimation of the business acumen of the current crop of Tory rightwingers. Sure, there are a handful with big wads ready to spunk on child-labour fraking projects (JRM, Ian Duncan Smith’s wife, etc) but having a quick glance at the histories of various members of the ERG reveals a remarkable variety of not-particularly-high-calibre professional backgrounds. For example, the odious Mark Francois (who seems to have emerged from nowhere as the main mouthpiece of this lot) has actually been an MP since 2006, before which he was basically a freelance public affairs / lobbying consultant. And then his wife divorced him. I’d be very surprised if he has much more than a few shares in Centrica and a couple of premium bonds. Ditto the ex journalists, ex army, etc. There are a few ERG ex lawyers and bankers, but the latter seem to be more operations / admin than traders.

I worked (briefly) in government relations in the early 2000s and spent a load of time compiling a background database on MPs, inc professional histories. From a purely dick-swinging CV point of view (directorships of listed companies, legal careers, etc) they were vastly more impressive than the current crop. Across all parties...

[TobyD]

My feeling is that the Conservative right intransigence over customs union  and several other issues is in significant part because May has repeatedly given them an inch, and now they want to push their point as far as they can get it.

On another point a fascinating statistic in an article this morning,  all 10 DUP MPs received less than half of the votes that elected Caroline Lucas the single  green Mp. And who's got the greater say in Brexit  negotiation? DUP don't even  represent the majority view in northern Ireland.

[Somebody's Fool]

For the Tories who are working in the interests of American corporations (Fox, Hunt, Davis etc), the whole point of Brexit is to get regulatory standards down to a point whereby American companies don't have to change their practices to gain access to the UK market. So if we have a customs union, there is literally no point to Brexit with regards this agenda.

I imagine the Tory Brexit faction to be a three part Venn diagram - the Atlantic Bridgers mentioned above, Tax Dodgers (Rees Mogg, Redwood and co) and Political Opportunists (Johnson, Gove and Davis) - probably with quite a lot of overlap between them.

[TobyD]

As a genuine enquiry, was this a "misrembering"? Or a misunderstanding? (Same question to Toby who seemed to agree with your original point). It's just your second paragraph seems like you're willing to extend motivation to Brexiters which I don't think does, and I think never has, existed.

Currently all the brexit process is hinging on whether or not to have a customs union with the EU it would appear. If we don't (the brexiter position) your point is that unless tate & lyle have bought off the UK trade negotiation team then in future trade deals we may be able to increase tariffs on imports to protect UK suppliers, and you say this point still stands (as a pro point) . I would say that yes it stands in theory depending on the government of the time, but it absolutely does not stand for any current tory government Brexiters, such as Davis. If you can find a single tory brexiter who wants brexit so they can increase import tariffs on anything I'll be amazed.

Nigel,  no you're right I was trying to say only that  T&L was the root of DDs Euroscepticism,  I obviously skim read Stus post. He described the situation in the podcast the Brexit ultra position is as I understood it that they want rid of tariffs ... I have to admit my understanding is pretty limited  but there's an argument that it heavily depends on whether this is applying to goods and / or services and to what extent  each matters as we have a far stronger service economy  (?) especially compared to  say France and Germany and that this is one of the more nuanced but ultimately compelling reasons for leaving.
Personally I don't agree that it's worth the cost but I can see the argument.  Unlike the sovereignty bullshit.

[TobyD]

There's a transcript of Marc Francois' speech reproduced in the guardian today, Jesus wept I was convinced he was a ridiculous zealot before reading it but it's clearly insane. How does anyone in good conscience vote for this man to be an MP?
There are good arguements for leaving but this guy definitely doesn't have them.

[Oldmanmatt]

 :lol:j

There's a transcript of Marc Francois' speech reproduced in the guardian today, Jesus wept I was convinced he was a ridiculous zealot before reading it but it's clearly insane. How does anyone in good conscience vote for this man to be an MP?
There are good arguements for leaving but this guy definitely doesn't have them.

On that note:

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/brexiteer-divulges-reasons-behind-change-heart/

Stable door=closed
Horse=Bolted

Oh, and apparently, it’s all the Queen’s fault for, traitorously, signing the latest bill into law, according to the Daily Fail comments section.

[Oldmanmatt]

I just realised, not everyone can be demented enough to subject themselves to Daily Fail comment sections.
I feel it’s the intellectual equivalent of a high colonic...

Anyway, here’s a link to the Poke’s selection of top moments in this glorious ode to deep thought and natural justice:

https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2019/04/09/daily-mail-readers-calling-queen-traitor-todays-best-brexit-thing/

I love the locations of the first few commentators (I’d go with “trolls”, tbh) and then way the credulous take up the chant. Hilarious!

(Slightly deranged, quiet, giggle)

We’re fucked, aren’t we?

Edit:

Oh yeah! The “Organise Anarchy” comment! Classic!

[SA Chris]

"One foul swoop", just great!

[petejh]

I love the locations of the first few commentators (I’d go with “trolls”, tbh) and then way the credulous take up the chant. Hilarious!

Credulous.

adjective
having or showing too great a readiness to believe things.


Yes Matt 

[Oldmanmatt]

I love the locations of the first few commentators (I’d go with “trolls”, tbh) and then way the credulous take up the chant. Hilarious!

Credulous.

adjective
having or showing too great a readiness to believe things.


Yes Matt 

It’s ok Pete, I wasn’t referring to you.


This time.

[petejh]

No, but I was to you 

The skippers of the Defiant , Resolute and Provider were not hoodwinked. They knew that the CFP is stacked against them and want out to get unfettered access to our territorial waters. They may not get out past Rockall but who knows? I am with them (but not off Rockall).

Yep. Definitely. 

Actually here’s a far more sarcastic article. The author is grinding his teeth to stumps as he types. 70,000 tons of work, replaced by 150, because Brexit:

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/european-carrier-work-offered-to-scotland-blocked-by-uk-government/?no_cache=1

I understand pacifist objections to arms manufacturing in the UK, I am only considering the economic impact in this post.

Oh dear! Surely alarm bells rang at this photo caption?

Luxembourg is expected to produce and ship the bow section.

There's actually a serious point to be made there about how easy it is to fall prey to conspiracy theories and fake news if it fits with a narrative that we like. But I'm better than to make it ... 

[Oldmanmatt]

No, but I was to you 

The skippers of the Defiant , Resolute and Provider were not hoodwinked. They knew that the CFP is stacked against them and want out to get unfettered access to our territorial waters. They may not get out past Rockall but who knows? I am with them (but not off Rockall).

Yep. Definitely. 

Actually here’s a far more sarcastic article. The author is grinding his teeth to stumps as he types. 70,000 tons of work, replaced by 150, because Brexit:

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/european-carrier-work-offered-to-scotland-blocked-by-uk-government/?no_cache=1

I understand pacifist objections to arms manufacturing in the UK, I am only considering the economic impact in this post.

Oh dear! Surely alarm bells rang at this photo caption?

Luxembourg is expected to produce and ship the bow section.

There's actually a serious point to be made there about how easy it is to fall prey to conspiracy theories and fake news if it fits with a narrative that we like. But I'm better than to make it ... 

Hey,  my couple of hours of confusion, pales to insignificance, compared to, what, three years? 😂

To be fair this hasreached a degree of farce, that beggars belief!

[tomtom]

Beggers belief might also work 😃

[Oldmanmatt]

Beggers belief might also work 😃

Too true.

Although, “buggers” would be more accurate...

[tomtom]

So - I'm at a large conference in Vienna and catching up with all my academic pals from across Europe (and beyond) and they are addicted to the Brexit soap opera. They really can't believe what is happening and why its taking so long to sort out.

One of my German friends even watches the parliament channel as he's become very inrerested in all of the procedures of our house of commons. Its good that we are providing entertainment for people I guess - but its not a good impression for UK PLC to portray...

[Oldmanmatt]

So - I'm at a large conference in Vienna and catching up with all my academic pals from across Europe (and beyond) and they are addicted to the Brexit soap opera. They really can't believe what is happening and why its taking so long to sort out.

One of my German friends even watches the parliament channel as he's become very inrerested in all of the procedures of our house of commons. Its good that we are providing entertainment for people I guess - but its not a good impression for UK PLC to portray...

Yes. My nominal “Boss” in my Engineering Consultant capacity , is Dutch. He absolutely rips the piss (he, also, might be the instigator of my recent stitch up, on or around the 1st of this month (bastard!)) every time we talk.

[TobyD]

So - I'm at a large conference in Vienna and catching up with all my academic pals from across Europe (and beyond) and they are addicted to the Brexit soap opera. They really can't believe what is happening and why its taking so long to sort out.

One of my German friends even watches the parliament channel as he's become very inrerested in all of the procedures of our house of commons. Its good that we are providing entertainment for people I guess - but its not a good impression for UK PLC to portray...

Indeed not. Theres a nice piece by Max Hastings in the Times today relating how  Robert Harris  says these are fascinating times  but it would be better not to be living through them.
It is  truly incredible that backbench MPs are getting legislation through  parliament effectively against the government's will. I wonder if the red faced fury of the erg will come to anything or just turn out to be an impotent temper tantrum. 

[TobyD]

If we do end up in eu elections this guy actually sounds credible: Sheffield's anti-Trump lord mayor ready to run for MEP

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/apr/10/sheffields-anti-trump-lord-mayor-ready-to-run-for-mep?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard