[TobyD]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gunboat-politics-won-t-solve-immigration-h5jgf8s3s

[dr_botnik]

... there is no alternative, the leader of the opposition genuinely can't come up with anything even as good as this heap of shit; just lie...

It's too late to legislate a second referendum. I think people are being disingenuous suggesting there is any alternative. Look at those calling loudly for a people's vote; Blair, mandelson et al then tell me this isn't just the latest stick being used to beat Corbyn with.
Furthermore, I believe the other accusations of instances where he has lied (such as on the issue of anti semitism) in your post to be baseless.
But this thread isn't about Corbyn, it's about brexit and, right now, the only issue around brexit is do we take the damage control option of May's deal, which locks us into an unending "backstop" arrangement likely forever, or take the terminal no deal option, and hope we somehow raise from the flames like a Cuban phoenix post oil crisis? (Unlikely to be comfortable)

[Will Hunt]

It isn't too late to carry out a second referendum because Parliament can pass legislation that delays article 50 to give the required time.

You're saying that because Blair is calling for a second referendum then it must be sone plot against Corbyn? Give me strength! Where to even begin?

Corbyn has many good qualities. One of those is not the ability to lead the opposition or a party of government, which is a shame. When he was first elected to the position I was optimistic, but the evidence has dispelled that. Unfortunately it is the plight of the Corbynista to argue perpetually for him, despite any evidence because they have deified him. He could curl a shit directly into the Chief Rabbi's gob and it would somehow be a Murdoch plot.

[tomtom]

... there is no alternative, the leader of the opposition genuinely can't come up with anything even as good as this heap of shit; just lie...

It's too late to legislate a second referendum. I think people are being disingenuous suggesting there is any alternative. Look at those calling loudly for a people's vote; Blair, mandelson et al then tell me this isn't just the latest stick being used to beat Corbyn with.
Furthermore, I believe the other accusations of instances where he has lied (such as on the issue of anti semitism) in your post to be baseless.
But this thread isn't about Corbyn, it's about brexit and, right now, the only issue around brexit is do we take the damage control option of May's deal, which locks us into an unending "backstop" arrangement likely forever, or take the terminal no deal option, and hope we somehow raise from the flames like a Cuban phoenix post oil crisis? (Unlikely to be comfortable)

Errrr... you’re forgetting option 3.

No brexit! Which as a50 can be readily withdrawn is a completely viable option.

[Will Hunt]

As nice as it might be for Remainers, I just don't think it would be politically tenable unfortunately. Imagine if you were on the other side of the argument...

[tomtom]

As nice as it might be for Remainers, I just don't think it would be politically tenable unfortunately. Imagine if you were on the other side of the argument...

But Will. You’re missing the point that no options are politically tenable atm.

Regardless revoking a50 - even if “temporarily” is an equally viable option.

[tc]

Labour MP Ian Murray:
"We can leave the EU under the terms of some version of the prime minister's bad deal or we can keep all our rights, powers, influence and op-outs in our current deal as full members of the EU."

Forget the "no-deal" blackmail. That's just May being a lunatic.

[teestub]

Forget the "no-deal" blackmail. That's just May being a lunatic.

As understand (potentially incorrectly!) the House showed yesterday that there are sufficient numbers to vote down a No Deal, so that is now effectively off the table https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/08/theresa-may-suffers-commons-defeat-over-no-deal-brexit

[tc]

As a result of today's vote, if (when) May's bad deal is thrown out she has three days to draft a "plan B" and present it to the Commons. I'm praying that no one gives her the crayons.

[Will Hunt]

Forget the "no-deal" blackmail. That's just May being a lunatic.

As understand (potentially incorrectly!) the House showed yesterday that there are sufficient numbers to vote down a No Deal, so that is now effectively off the table https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/08/theresa-may-suffers-commons-defeat-over-no-deal-brexit

There won't be a vote on whether we have a no deal Brexit, because that vote has already happened when we triggered Article 50. A no deal Brexit is what we're currently getting. To avoid it, a majority of MPs must vote for some alternative. We expect the deal to be rejected on the 15th. Not sure what then.

[Johnny Brown]

I expect there'll either be an election or a second referendum, possibly both. History would suggest the latter. But given the trajectory of the last two years I don't think a chaotic no deal exit is impossible. If that happens, I suspect these events may be just the beginning of something bigger and more unpleasant.

[teestub]

The amendment passed today allows MPs to amend whatever the PM comes back with if/when her deal is voted down. This will be the opportunity to make sure a no deal is not possible, and the vote yesterday was a proof of principle that the numbers are there to do this.

[tc]

Deal rejected >> extend article 50 >> second referendum >> stay in Europe >> general election >> return to old school socialism >> get on with living in France without having to worry that I might have to hide in the woods >> fuck politics off and go climbing.

That's my plan B comrades.

[Will Hunt]

The amendment passed today allows MPs to amend whatever the PM comes back with if/when her deal is voted down. This will be the opportunity to make sure a no deal is not possible, and the vote yesterday was a proof of principle that the numbers are there to do this.

But what amendment would they make that could command a majority of support? They might agree that they don't want no deal, but this is meaningless unless they agree on what they do want. The only alternative on the table at the moment is May's deal, which is objectionable to everyone in equal measure. Delaying article 50 requires agreement of the 27, and approval in Parliament. Cancelling and retriggering requires parliamentary approval. Tricky but could happen? But what would it achieve? The Brexiters in parliament might not support it as it could be the first step on the road to cancelling their project.

JB, I'm not sure how a GE would come about under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliament Act. It would need the DUP to break their confidence and supply agreement or for Tory MPs to vote for a GE. Unlikely without a new leader in place which is an idea they just rejected. Could happen if Labour tank even further in the polls?

[tomtom]

But Will, if May keeps banging her head against the parliamentary brick wall and trying to push through deals that no one votes for then she will lose the support of even her own party.  The amendments actually have little clout - but are very symbolic shots across her bows... warnings if you like that she can't just do what she wants.

I find it actually quite re-assuring - that most (just) MP's recognise that no deal is bonkers and these amendments make it quite clear that it wont be allowed to happen (even if the amendments themselves are somewhat toothless - they show the intent etc..)

[teestub]

Will, Labour have said they’ll issue MoNC May’s deal is voted down, if that passed then we have a GE. DUP are already voting against Conservatives currently and I can see May getting the concessions they need to get them back on side.

Most likely amendment at the mo will be extending A50 as this obviously need me to happen to allow a second ref or time for a new deal. The guy who wrote the A50 stuff was on the radio yesterday saying that you couldn’t just stop it and restart it again, as that would go against clauses in there for extension. Ireland have said they won’t stand against an extension, and I couldn’t see any other country voting against it now they see which way the tide is going.

Less clear after that, Labour still seem to think they can get a better deal by changing red lines, also growing support for second ref across the house.

[sdm]

The amendment passed today allows MPs to amend whatever the PM comes back with if/when her deal is voted down. This will be the opportunity to make sure a no deal is not possible, and the vote yesterday was a proof of principle that the numbers are there to do this.

I don't think it is safe to assume that everyone who voted for the amendment will also vote against May's deal or even a no deal brexit.

Backbench Conservatives can safely vote for the amendment to send May a message on the direction things are going while also knowing that the amendment on its own is of relatively little consequence.

Once it comes down to voting on May's deal or a potential no deal brexit, a vote against May will effectively be a vote for a general election and a chance for each current MP to lose their job.

Never underestimate a politician's ability to sacrifice their principles in order to prolong/further their career.

For example, staunch europhile Ken Clarke voted for the amendment but has already said he will tow the Tory line when it comes to voting on May's deal. He says this is because he thinks May's deal is less damaging to the country than a potential no deal. Reading between the lines, it seems more like sacrificing his supposed convictions in order to prolong a Conservative government.

It wouldn't take many to change sides to change the result.

[tomtom]

Iirc in the first defeat this week there were 30 or so Labour Mp’s who didn’t vote....

[sdm]

Less clear after that, Labour still seem to think they can get a better deal by changing red lines

They can do that based on the following two assumptions:
1) The EU agree to start all over again
2) Labour agree not to end freedom of movement

I don't think either is at all certain.

The EU have been pretty clear that they have no intention of starting negotiations again. They have their own issues to sort out. Brexit is the be all and end all of UK politics, it is not the be all and end all of European politics right now. How much patience can we expect on the other side of the negotiating table? We have already negotiated one agreement which was quickly passed by the the other 27 heads of state. Then we can't agree ourselves whether we want the agreement we came to. We can't yet agree amongst ourselves what it is that we do want. Maybe the EU might agree to reopen talks if there is a new government with new aims but that is far from certain, especially when Corbyn's brexit plans don't so far appear to be that different from May's anyway.

On freedom of movement, if we don't agree to keep it, there is no alternative deal. We can't divorce ourselves from EU regulations without breaking the Good Friday Agreement or WTO rules. I don't think Corbyn has said he would seek to keep freedom of movement (I may be wrong on this, it is hard to keep track of all of the things he has backtracked on recently).

[teestub]

I don't think it is safe to assume that everyone who voted for the amendment will also vote against May's deal or even a no deal brexit.

....

It wouldn't take many to change sides to change the result.

Indeed, the only thing certain about the situation at the moment is the large amount of uncertainty about the outcome of the vote next week. The thing about May's deal is that there seem to be a lot of different factions likely to vote against it:
- Hard Brexit fans within the Tories who don't think the deal goes far enough in various areas
- DUP who aren't satisfied in the NI backstop position which seems very unlikely to change
- Labour MPs who are of the (mistaken IMO as per your next post) opinion that they as a party can get a better deal
- Pro remain MPs looking to use the amendment passed yesterday to force an extension to A50 at least, if not a 2nd referendum

Going to be very interesting to see who votes in what direction next week, have only skim read articles today suggesting that May is adding in some stuff on workers' rights that may appease some labour MPs of her deal? Personally I'm just hoping her deal gets voted down as that's the only path to staying in the EU, even if the path after that is tortuous.

[SamT]

even if the path after that is tortuous.

Boom!! 

(sorry - wrong thread).

[teestub]

you want to get your dictionary out first 

[SamT]

you want to get your dictionary out first 

https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,29715.msg574590.html#msg574590

(I was applauding your correct use of the word Tortuous)

[teestub]

Apologies, I thought you were accusing me of eggcorning! I think either word is entirely suitably for the A50 process, torturously tortuous!

[sdm]

Personally I'm just hoping her deal gets voted down as that's the only path to staying in the EU, even if the path after that is tortuous.

Agreed. I don't have much confidence that that will be the final outcome after her deal is voted down.

It looks like the only way to avoid a bad deal is to risk potentially ending up with a catastrophic (no) deal.

It's a strange world where the extremes at either end of the debate end up having to join forces to ensure that the middle ground that nobody wants gets defeated.