[Oldmanmatt]

These CP’s didn’t exactly let them in, there is a fair amount of resistance, but look at the numbers!

https://twitter.com/elijahschaffer/status/1346966514990149639?s=21

[andy popp]

Explaining kid gloves for violent White Supremacist insurrectionists as "tactics."

Yes.

There might be more to it, they (Capitol Police, Metro ) might be complicit, time will tell.
However, yes, if you are overwhelmed, it is exactly what what you would have been trained to do.
Delay, stall the advance, evacuate the principles, cede the property, save the lives.

With all due respect - and I mean that, you and Pete know far more about the realities on the ground than I do - but this is to make the same mistake.

Sure, in the immediate circumstances, the tactics may have made sense. I don't condemn individual officers placed in those positions (well, I do condemn those seen opening barriers or filmed sharing high fives and selfies with rioters inside the Capitol building). But to focus on tactics serves to obscure the much bigger picture.

None of this was difficult to predict. After years of general incitement Trump had been specifically inciting these events for the last couple of weeks. He then literally urged the crowd to march on the Capitol. And yet zero preparation. The authorities had no compunction in using massive, heavily militarized law enforcement against BLM protests in the summer, including just yards from where this took place. Law enforcement that often deliberately provoked and initiated violence against peaceful protests  - protests that were not actually attempting to prevent Congress from fufilling its duty to complete a Presidential election, as yesterday's rioters succeeded in doing for several hours. No worries back then about provoking counter reactions or wider civil unrest. No worries then about damage limitation. We don't need conspiracy theories about police being stood down in advance to plainly see in yesterday's events that America does not see it's black and white citizens as equal. There has been far too much tolerance of Trump and his follower's lawlessness, tolerance that culminated in yesterday's events. Whether by design or instinct yesterday was an object lesson in the authorities' tolerance for white grievance and terrorism.

So that is why I called bullshit (I could have been politer, I admit) on Pete's focus on tactics. Focusing on tactics tends to lead us away from asking the much bigger questions that really need to be asked.

I was also calling bullshit on the idea that Trump was beginning to come to his senses and was calling for peace. His two pathetic tweets and subsequent video (all now deleted) in fact all continued his utter recklessness and irresponsibility.

[mrjonathanr]

Thé way I see it, there are two separate coup attempts in the US capital right now.

Thé mob inside the house chambers has been dealt with now.

The other is still ongoing with lawmakers who, having failed to overturn the election in the courts, are attempting to vote down the democratic result at certification.


Posts crossed... yes to the above Andy. Some of the CP were really put in harm’s way when refusing entry, horrible. The irony is that with all the nonsense about Deep State, here is something institutional which is genuinely concerning.

[Oldmanmatt]

Andy, you are conflating strategy with tactical response. The tactics employed, under the circumstances, make sense.
The circumstances that required that tactical response, are highly questionable. The differing level of response between officers, some quite passive, some highly aggressive; would seem to suggest there was no coordinated effort to be compliant with the mob. I’m suspicious of, but not wholly convinced by, the “high five/selfie” footage, because, frankly, if I’d been in uniform, surrounded by an armed, crazed, mob, in a distinctive uniform, I would probably play nice too.
(Actually, I wouldn’t, I’m not that smart, nor that self controlled. I would, however, probably be dead or rather badly beaten, so you can make up your own mind about the “righteousness” of compliance).

MrJr, the second coup has failed and I think the 7 names that supported it are probably looking at rather bleak futures.

Andy, it’s highly probable that Pence and the Tortoise took control of government last night. Both Twitter and Facebook have disabled/locked Trump out, I don’t believe that would happen iwithout some high level intervention, there are clear laws about the sitting president’s right to address the people, if that has been interfered with, he is not the sitting president.
For the sake of two weeks, the disgrace of actually deposing him, is probably not worth it, but I’ll bet he is effectively gone already. A mad old coot, locked up in the Oval office, shouting at the ceiling.

[andy popp]

Andy, you are conflating strategy with tactical response.

No, I get that. In some ways, that's my point. Tactics are important ... for those who need to learn the lessons when they don't work. For us they are a distraction from much bigger questions. The circumstances are what we should be focused on.

I do think he should be removed immediately. To leave him in place normalises or minimizes what took place yesterday. And although a lame duck he still has a lot of power to wreak havoc, including the power of pardon.

[Oldmanmatt]

Andy, you are conflating strategy with tactical response.

No, I get that. In some ways, that's my point. Tactics are important ... for those who need to learn the lessons when they don't work. For us they are a distraction from much bigger questions. The circumstances are what we should be focused on.

I do think he should be removed immediately. To leave him in place normalises or minimizes what took place yesterday. And although a lame duck he still has a lot of power to wreak havoc, including the power of pardon.

He’s banned anybody from Pence’s staff from entering the White House, apparently.
The word is, there will be quite a few resignations today and tomorrow. Secret Service as well as Civilian.
As well as “minions”, many senior politicians and in particular Republicans, were put in harms way yesterday.
I don’t think they will forget that in a hurry.
The coup failed. The enablers will be seeking a way out. There will be no more attempts, I’m pretty sure. They shot their bolt, they won’t be given the opportunity to re-cock the bow.

[gollum]

Result has been certified and Trump has issued a statement that’s a close to a concession as we are ever going to hear, although does describe his presidency as the greatest first term in history...........

[andy popp]

I'm sure we're very largely on the same page Matt.

It did fail and he is done. But there have to be consequences. We will see what today brings.

[tomtom]

I've been reflecting on what I watched last night - and I find it hard to think of it being an organised coup. "Insurrection" yes, but there didnt seem to be much organisation last night. Whilst there may have been an aim to 'take' the Capitol building (I'm assuming there was - I don't know) beyond that there was little apparent through or method. A staffer snaffled the vote bundles out of the chamber (surely a target?) and everyone was spirited away to alternative / safe places. No message  - or list of demands - or the like was read out in the chamber etc.. instead a dude wearing antlers was pictured in the chair! The guy carrying the confederate flag (widely pictured - and rightly a hugely offensive symbol esp in the context of the building) looked more like a hapless / witless protester rather than a revolutionary.

Put it this way (and OMM MUST know more about this than me :D ) but if I wanted to stage a coup - I might have used this protest and the building invasion as cover or a method - but I'd have - err - done a bit more coup err... stuff?

[Oldmanmatt]

And there we go. It begins:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-officials-resign-white-house-b1783622.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1ByK3VQVF7TZjUFiXblfJOpngsIbezoqxXQgMpewFhHYXKvBBi4YBulBY#Echobox=1609987625

[teestub]

One thing is that they are going to have to have a big bonfire of all the IT equipment in the whole building, loads of pics of the protesters at desks with the computers still unlocked (apparently reading govt email is a crime in itself).

[spidermonkey09]

That is a fundamental misread of what constitutes a coup as far as I'm concerned. By definition they are not organised events. Violent takeovers start in precisely this manner and there is historical precedent everywhere for it; in a 'less strong' state with fewer 'checks and balances' or with a wider sense of grievance it is totally plausible to imagine a scenario where a police force/ section of the military joins with the protestors and before you know it, they're in control. Timothy Snyder, Anne Applebaum et al are well worth reading on this.

So yes, you're right that it wasn't organised, but its totally irrelevant to the seriousness of what took place, because all such events are disorganised. The effect of what you're saying is to diminish it, and whilst I know that isnt what you personally are doing, just watch for the Spectator columnists/ Spiked contributors/ right wing pundits to make a similar argument over the next few days.

This comes across as having a go (sorry!) ; I've seen a few of these takes already this morning and I find them really frustrating!

[Oldmanmatt]

I've been reflecting on what I watched last night - and I find it hard to think of it being an organised coup. "Insurrection" yes, but there didnt seem to be much organisation last night. Whilst there may have been an aim to 'take' the Capitol building (I'm assuming there was - I don't know) beyond that there was little apparent through or method. A staffer snaffled the vote bundles out of the chamber (surely a target?) and everyone was spirited away to alternative / safe places. No message  - or list of demands - or the like was read out in the chamber etc.. instead a dude wearing antlers was pictured in the chair! The guy carrying the confederate flag (widely pictured - and rightly a hugely offensive symbol esp in the context of the building) looked more like a hapless / witless protester rather than a revolutionary.

Put it this way (and OMM MUST know more about this than me :D ) but if I wanted to stage a coup - I might have used this protest and the building invasion as cover or a method - but I'd have - err - done a bit more coup err... stuff?

I’m mainly regurgitating other, better informed, opinion. With a peppering of my own musings (it’s not as if I’ve ever held those back, is it).
I’ve been largely waiting for a particular friend to “pronounce” his take. I have a former CO, a retired Col US Army, and I’ve been very close to her for a couple of decades. Her partner also became a friend. He’s a former USN Commander and Destroyer Captain, who went into the intelligence community (a company man, no less) and now in his late sixties is CEO of “Dark Skies Mitigation” (so if you’re really bothered, you can dig him up, even on Linkedin. Real life isn’t a Bond movie, you are not automatically assassinated for retiring and you probably had a career pushing paper and not people off cliffs).
Anyway, he’s in Saudi at the moment and wasn’t able to tap in instantly. In fact he was in bed when it kicked off. He genuinely did not expect it to go this far.
I trust his/their take, in particular. He has a way of finding and sharing information, rapidly, that is astonishing, frankly and his candour is also remarkable. He’s a registered Democrat and I know he’s part of a group of former intelligence agency types that are quite seriously pushing for sedition trials and have been since the Russian report/investigation.
Of course, given his background, it might be as much disinformation as a Trump tweet, but I’d like to think not.

[tomtom]

One thing is that they are going to have to have a big bonfire of all the IT equipment in the whole building, loads of pics of the protesters at desks with the computers still unlocked (apparently reading govt email is a crime in itself).

FFS... if they've not already been breached by the widespread Russian hack....

[Muenchener]

And there we go. It begins:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-officials-resign-white-house-b1783622.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1ByK3VQVF7TZjUFiXblfJOpngsIbezoqxXQgMpewFhHYXKvBBi4YBulBY#Echobox=1609987625

Is National Security Adviser a cabinet post? And could sufficient cabinet resignations make a 25th Amendment quorum impossible?

[Ru]

Trumps political talent has always been spotting popular movements and then nudging them and either taking advantage of the fallout or pretending he had nothing to do with it if it goes wrong. Rumblings of demonstrations in Washington on the 6th had been around in the maga (for want of a better word) corners of the internet for a while before Trump started approving them publicly on twitter and calling for people to attend. I don't think this was an organised attempt at a coup on Trump's part, but it does seem likely that he was manoeuvring to gain every inch of advantage he could from a brewing situation before seeing which way the wind was blowing and disavowing it at the last minute. He's culpable for what happened even if he had no proper plan.

[tomtom]

That is a fundamental misread of what constitutes a coup as far as I'm concerned. By definition they are not organised events. Violent takeovers start in precisely this manner and there is historical precedent everywhere for it; in a 'less strong' state with fewer 'checks and balances' or with a wider sense of grievance it is totally plausible to imagine a scenario where a police force/ section of the military joins with the protestors and before you know it, they're in control. Timothy Snyder, Anne Applebaum et al are well worth reading on this.

So yes, you're right that it wasn't organised, but its totally irrelevant to the seriousness of what took place, because all such events are disorganised. The effect of what you're saying is to diminish it, and whilst I know that isnt what you personally are doing, just watch for the Spectator columnists/ Spiked contributors/ right wing pundits to make a similar argument over the next few days.

Fair enough - this comes down to the definition of a coup to a degree...

And I know (Romania in the late 80's is a great example - Arab Spring too) that what turns into a coup (by my internal more revolutionary definition :D ) can start as a upwelling of public feeling/demonstration etc.. (whether considered right or wrong)...

I would argue however - that whether or not it was organised is completely relevant to its seriousness! Organisation implies/means structure, control, aims and a motive - and probably therefore funding. If (for example) someone had funded a group of military trained people to go in there too (mercenaries - whatever) and/or had aided in its organisation, goals and outcomes then that would be a completely different situation! How would this be if Zuckeberg or Musk had sunk a few hundred mill into a militia that stormed in afterwards.... Don't spit your tea out at this point remember the Contra's, Bay of Pigs, etc... etc... there is a long history of powers/groups funding takeovers (inc the CIA/US govt).

In many ways - the involvement of Cambridge analytica in the Brexit Ref, and the US election etc.. is far far more serious - they were coups that worked!! -  despite having less TV presence than a man in antlers waving a flag in the Capitol building...

*Devils advocate alert* Therefore - by making it something more than it was - you/me/we/media are in danger of actually turning it into something: instead of possibly treating it as a load of half arsed demonstrators having an illegal day trip around the capitol building.... (please read the devils advocate alert )

[Oldmanmatt]

I genuinely think he wasn’t expecting it to go so far.
I think he has a tendency to grab the Tiger’s tail without much of a plan for dealing with it’s head, his history is replete with reckless plunges into hairbrained, half baked, doomed enterprise.

I don’t believe for a second Pence was expecting it.

On the otherhand, as idle speculation, was it a set up? Was the lax security an invitation for the MAGA mob to deliver the ultimate embarrassment to the would be dictator?
Will the GOP begin to paint these people as traitors and disavow them? Is this the start of the MAGA purge?

[tomtom]

How Pence is positioning himself is either (a) interesting/tactical (b) completely random and he doesnt know what he's doing.

That I think both of these are viable options says alot about the administration...

[SA Chris]

I expect there are many discussion going on about how to play this all over the place right now.

[jwi]

The putsch is a very powerful advertisement for American fascism and will make it a lot easier to recruit. And it is broadly supported by republican voters (45% support, with 43% against, according to YouGov). It was a lot better organised than the famous Beer Hall Putsch I would say.

It is very hard for me to stay optimistic.

[Oldmanmatt]

I expect there are many discussion going on about how to play this all over the place right now.

Yup.

I like speculating. I do recognise I’ll probably never know the “real” story. I guess, in a couple of decades, somebody will write a book that gets close to the real thing, but even then nobody will actually be sure.

On the preparedness thing. The mob brought breaching equipment, ladders etc and ready made IEDs, this had some intent, in some quarters.

Again, the number of Federal agencies, on scene and the absence of uniformed SS is not normal/expected. I’ve even seen ATF SWAT on site. Pretty sure this sort of thing is not in their remit.

[spidermonkey09]

That is a fundamental misread of what constitutes a coup as far as I'm concerned. By definition they are not organised events. Violent takeovers start in precisely this manner and there is historical precedent everywhere for it; in a 'less strong' state with fewer 'checks and balances' or with a wider sense of grievance it is totally plausible to imagine a scenario where a police force/ section of the military joins with the protestors and before you know it, they're in control. Timothy Snyder, Anne Applebaum et al are well worth reading on this.

So yes, you're right that it wasn't organised, but its totally irrelevant to the seriousness of what took place, because all such events are disorganised. The effect of what you're saying is to diminish it, and whilst I know that isnt what you personally are doing, just watch for the Spectator columnists/ Spiked contributors/ right wing pundits to make a similar argument over the next few days.

Fair enough - this comes down to the definition of a coup to a degree...

And I know (Romania in the late 80's is a great example - Arab Spring too) that what turns into a coup (by my internal more revolutionary definition :D ) can start as a upwelling of public feeling/demonstration etc.. (whether considered right or wrong)...

I would argue however - that whether or not it was organised is completely relevant to its seriousness! Organisation implies/means structure, control, aims and a motive - and probably therefore funding. If (for example) someone had funded a group of military trained people to go in there too (mercenaries - whatever) and/or had aided in its organisation, goals and outcomes then that would be a completely different situation! How would this be if Zuckeberg or Musk had sunk a few hundred mill into a militia that stormed in afterwards.... Don't spit your tea out at this point remember the Contra's, Bay of Pigs, etc... etc... there is a long history of powers/groups funding takeovers (inc the CIA/US govt).

In many ways - the involvement of Cambridge analytica in the Brexit Ref, and the US election etc.. is far far more serious - they were coups that worked!! -  despite having less TV presence than a man in antlers waving a flag in the Capitol building...

*Devils advocate alert* Therefore - by making it something more than it was - you/me/we/media are in danger of actually turning it into something: instead of possibly treating it as a load of half arsed demonstrators having an illegal day trip around the capitol building.... (please read the devils advocate alert )

I don't disagree with the above to any great extent (apologies if original post came across as patronising, not my intention!)

I suppose what constitutes a coup is a sliding scale from 'riot' to 'total installation of leader at head of state,' with this probably lying closer to the riot end of the spectrum. In that sense I agree that this could have been a lot worse (and as jwi says, may yet become so). However I think to treat it as demonstrators having a jolly (devils advocate warning noted!) is to repeat the same mistakes we have made over the last 4 years of his presidency. He has been enabled from the beginning, praised by world leaders, never called out. That, as much as anything Trump has said or done, has allowed fascism to take root in the American right. My worry is that by failing to treat it with the seriousness that is due we leave ourselves vulnerable to the next stage, and the next, until in 4/8/12 years time a full blown fascist takes power, rather than a moron with fascistic tendencies. In many ways, the US and by extension the rest of us are hugely lucky that he isn't more competent.

[Johnny Brown]

I guess, in a couple of decades, somebody will write a book that gets close to the real thing, but even then nobody will actually be sure.

With the distance of time it is a lot easier to put together a plausible narrative that makes sense in the context of what happens after. We call it history, but I'm far from convinced it does justice to the conflicting truths of the present.

[Oldmanmatt]

That is a fundamental misread of what constitutes a coup as far as I'm concerned. By definition they are not organised events. Violent takeovers start in precisely this manner and there is historical precedent everywhere for it; in a 'less strong' state with fewer 'checks and balances' or with a wider sense of grievance it is totally plausible to imagine a scenario where a police force/ section of the military joins with the protestors and before you know it, they're in control. Timothy Snyder, Anne Applebaum et al are well worth reading on this.

So yes, you're right that it wasn't organised, but its totally irrelevant to the seriousness of what took place, because all such events are disorganised. The effect of what you're saying is to diminish it, and whilst I know that isnt what you personally are doing, just watch for the Spectator columnists/ Spiked contributors/ right wing pundits to make a similar argument over the next few days.

Fair enough - this comes down to the definition of a coup to a degree...

And I know (Romania in the late 80's is a great example - Arab Spring too) that what turns into a coup (by my internal more revolutionary definition :D ) can start as a upwelling of public feeling/demonstration etc.. (whether considered right or wrong)...

I would argue however - that whether or not it was organised is completely relevant to its seriousness! Organisation implies/means structure, control, aims and a motive - and probably therefore funding. If (for example) someone had funded a group of military trained people to go in there too (mercenaries - whatever) and/or had aided in its organisation, goals and outcomes then that would be a completely different situation! How would this be if Zuckeberg or Musk had sunk a few hundred mill into a militia that stormed in afterwards.... Don't spit your tea out at this point remember the Contra's, Bay of Pigs, etc... etc... there is a long history of powers/groups funding takeovers (inc the CIA/US govt).

In many ways - the involvement of Cambridge analytica in the Brexit Ref, and the US election etc.. is far far more serious - they were coups that worked!! -  despite having less TV presence than a man in antlers waving a flag in the Capitol building...

*Devils advocate alert* Therefore - by making it something more than it was - you/me/we/media are in danger of actually turning it into something: instead of possibly treating it as a load of half arsed demonstrators having an illegal day trip around the capitol building.... (please read the devils advocate alert )

I don't disagree with the above to any great extent (apologies if original post came across as patronising, not my intention!)

I suppose what constitutes a coup is a sliding scale from 'riot' to 'total installation of leader at head of state,' with this probably lying closer to the riot end of the spectrum. In that sense I agree that this could have been a lot worse (and as jwi says, may yet become so). However I think to treat it as demonstrators having a jolly (devils advocate warning noted!) is to repeat the same mistakes we have made over the last 4 years of his presidency. He has been enabled from the beginning, praised by world leaders, never called out. That, as much as anything Trump has said or done, has allowed fascism to take root in the American right. My worry is that by failing to treat it with the seriousness that is due we leave ourselves vulnerable to the next stage, and the next, until in 4/8/12 years time a full blown fascist takes power, rather than a moron with fascistic tendencies. In many ways, the US and by extension the rest of us are hugely lucky that he isn't more competent.

For context. There was a gallows erected in front of the Capitol steps, it might have been entirely symbolic, but it was entirely functional and elaborate for a “thrown together” protest. There is some evidence emerging of a plan to hold representatives hostages, conduct show trials and executions.

It’s easy to say “well that’s just a bunch of nutters, dreaming up revenge fantasies”, but the only real difference between that an actual, successful, coup, is whether or not the actual carry out their scheme. It’s hard to say that it did not come quite close to fruition. There was a moment where the doors to the floor were barricaded, under assault and the Reps were still inside. A broken hinge or a toppled cabinet and there might well have been dead Reps this morning and the world would be a very different place.
It is in everybody’s interest that the fizzle is emphasised, rather than the potential.