[Oldmanmatt]

Some pre-referendum forecasting from HM Treasury....

@JolyonMaugham  QC on HM Treasury report on effects of #brexshit written BEFORE referendum!!!

Thanks Slackers, can always rely on you for links!

That'll be the same treasury that predicted 4 quarters of recession immediately following a brexit vote:
www.gov.uk/government/publications/hm-treasury-analysis-the-immediate-economic-impact-of-leaving-the-eu

"Following a brexit vote" != "leaving the eu"

The forecast/predictions of the impact of Brexit are as yet untested....the UK hasn't yet left the EU.  I've said before I don't particularly care for the economic arguments, economists seem particularly shit at predicting what is going to happen and most forecasts of growth, should they be accurate, will benefit a small minority of rich people since increases in GDP are not evenly distributed, its a neat way of using statistics to mask things.  There are plenty of other reasons to remain in the EU but I won't be repeating myself and typing them out again.

So, I get your position on GDP.
What about earnings?

Because...

Budget 2017: Stagnant earnings forecast 'astonishing'

[chris j]

As a supporter of Brexit, whose stated position on the negotiations was that I was sanguine that the political posturing would come to an end and the negotiations to leave would be carried out in a professional manner by reasonable people ending in a fair deal for all sides, I'd like to publically don the hair shirt, cry mea culpa and ask for a second referendum to abandon Brexit on the grounds that we can see through the smoke of the pre-referendum campaigns to the real-politik of life after Brexit.

There is no end to the political posturing, there is no negotiation, the EU's position is do what we say or else. There is no compromise on the other side of the table. May's absurd failed gamble with the general election has left her government as a frightened rabbit in the headlights of a steam-roller. I no longer believe it's possible to negotiate a reasonable exit and rather than no deal being better than a bad deal, no Brexit is better than a f*cking awful Brexit where we are bound by all the negatives with none of the benefits and still tied in with of the freedom we were promised.

[teestub]

There is no end to the political posturing, there is no negotiation, the EU's position is do what we say or else. There is no compromise on the other side of the table.

Fuck me it's almost as if the stronger party in the negotiation can dictate the terms, no-one saw that coming!

[chris j]

I had this naïve belief that reasonable people would get round a table and have a reasonable discussion about the best way forward. What can I say...?

[teestub]

Think there will be a lot of people out shopping for hair shirts and birch flails at this rate, unfortunately with the line of the Labour whip and the Lib Dems nowhere, I can't see a mechanism for us to get out of this mess.

Unless Labour are playing a blinder, waiting for the post Brexit future to get suitably bleak-looking, and then having an about turn in position...

[i.munro]

there is no negotiation, the EU's position is do what we say or else. There is no compromise on the other side of the table.

This is nonsense. It was made clear before the referendum that the EU's position was that this 2 year period was simply about sortling out the terms of exit and also that it is a very short time to do that.
It was also made clear that negotiating a trade-deal with the EU is a long process - 5 - 7 years was given as an average on many occasions.
The EU has compromised by agreeing to start discussions on a trade deal early - a compromise that I suspect they might now be regretting.

They have compromised by allowing

[andy popp]

At this point, I don't see how the EU can be expected to negotiate with such a shambolic, incoherent, irrational, and incompetent government.

For some time I've had two questions I wanted ask Brexit supporters: are you satisfied with the preparation and planning for Brexit that were made before the referendum, and are you satisfied with the progress of the negotiations thus far? I am genuinely interested in hearing answers. I got to try them out on someone yesterday; in short, their answers were that they didn't think more planning could have been done, they aren't satisfied with the negotiations but aren't surprised, but were still sanguine that sense would prevail and a good deal would be reached. It must be nice to be so optimistic.

[tomtom]

David Davis admission that there is no analysis - no sector reports is gob smacking.

That he lied about it was largely expected but his brazen-ness is quite amazing...

To me the most horrendous take out from his statements to the commons select committee are that reports and forecasts are worthless - so decisions on brexit are being made on qualitative judgements. In effect hunches, ideas, feelings - rather than looking at the evidence and making a balanced judgement based on that.

I expect DD to be biased. I did not expect him to be a complete fucking idiot.


How. On. Earth. Is this being allowed to happen and is this man still in a job?

[kelvin]

Parliamentary privilege Tom - lying in pursuit of your goals is not something people turn a blind eye to but rather actively support by voting the miscreants into power.

It's only Thursday and the political news this week, home and abroad, has been ludicrous in the extreme. Roll on the Friday scandal.

[tomtom]

I always thought he was a bit dense but - oh - how can we have our negotiations being run by this clueless clown (sorry clowns)...

Its Trump esque...

[SamT]

As a supporter of Brexit, whose stated position on the negotiations was that I was sanguine that the political posturing would come to an end and the negotiations to leave would be carried out in a professional manner by reasonable people ending in a fair deal for all sides, I'd like to publically don the hair shirt, cry mea culpa and ask for a second referendum to abandon Brexit on the grounds that we can see through the smoke of the pre-referendum campaigns to the real-politik of life after Brexit.

This just popped up on my Yahoo front page as went to log into emai...

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/half-britons-now-believe-uk-will-get-bad-brexit-deal-103537825.html

perhaps they read UKb for the latest..

[andy popp]

Its Trump esque...

No, the people around Trump actually have a plan.

[Oldmanmatt]

I’m surprised anyone has anything left to say. Surprised that anyone can find the outrage and indignation of the remainer or the tub-thumping-jingoistic delusions of the Brexiteer.
Reality is way too depressing and harsh, for either end of the spectrum to keep up their passions, surely?

[chris j]

The two turning points for me was first a quote from I think the Spanish foreign minister, where he said bluntly (from memory so some paraphrasing) "We talk to David Davis, Michel Barnier talks to David Davis, we listen to his proposal and we say "We'll see what we can do" and he takes it positively that we will consider what he says and change our position. But it is a British misunderstanding, we are just saying it to be polite and we don't change anything".

The second was reading the quotes from government ministers scrolling across the bottom of the news after the DUP understandably torpedoed the border deal yesterday "We will have a deal with the Irish very soon", "We will not have any special arrangement for Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK will be in the same system" and "We will leave the single market and customs union". Clearly you can't have all three of these given the Irish position is basically that Northern Ireland stays in the customs union!

Intransigence on one side and incompetence on the other.

[erm]

Intransigence on one side and incompetence on the other.

We turned up to the negotiating table and made demands that would undermine the whole structure of the EU. How is the refusal to do something which the EU judges as more damaging than losing some trade with the UK intransigence?

[Oldmanmatt]

Wow.
The Beeb is usually somewhat pro-Tory, I thought.
I’ve had my head in the annual accounts for two days, finally putting them to bed around 16:30 today; not paying attention.
Fark me bendy! This is pants!

Impact assessments of Brexit on the UK 'don't exist'

[i.munro]

We turned up to the negotiating table and made demands that would undermine the whole structure of the EU. How is the refusal to do something which the EU judges as more damaging than losing some trade with the UK intransigence?

I'm not sure that's true. As far as I can make out the only concrete thing that's been asked by the U.K. is to start talks on a free-trade deal before leaving and the EU agreed to that - with conditions.
The important/valuable stuff that we could hav like remaining in the single-market we didn't even ask for.

[slackline]

This makes for thoroughly depressing reading given the complete incompetence at being able to negotiate demonstrated by the twats in charge, like being in a train crash in slow motion that could be avoided if those at the controls flipped the tracks but are steadfastly refusing to do so...

parliament.uk European Union Committee - Brexit: deal or no deal

Read it, think about it, share it with everyone you know, particularly those who are pro-Brexit / pro-No Deal....

The British Food Importers & Distributors Association said that no deal would lead to a lack of availability of key food products on supermarket shelves. Falling back on WTO rules could also lead to food prices rising by over 20%.

 

[petejh]

At this point, I don't see how the EU can be expected to negotiate with such a shambolic, incoherent, irrational, and incompetent government.

For some time I've had two questions I wanted ask Brexit supporters: are you satisfied with the preparation and planning for Brexit that were made before the referendum, and are you satisfied with the progress of the negotiations thus far? I am genuinely interested in hearing answers. I got to try them out on someone yesterday; in short, their answers were that they didn't think more planning could have been done, they aren't satisfied with the negotiations but aren't surprised, but were still sanguine that sense would prevail and a good deal would be reached. It must be nice to be so optimistic.

Firstly, it has to be said - why on earth would a leave supporter want to come on here to answer your questions. This forum does a very good impression of being an echo chamber full of 'haters' - using the Taylor Swift interpretation of 'haters' here.. not the national front's.

But.. sucker that I am for being subjected to the views of righteous people who vehemently disagree with what I believe..

1. ''Are you satisfied with the preparation and planning for Brexit that were made before the referendum?''
Satisfied, no - things could nearly always be better and I have mild issues with perfectionism. But I don't believe a great deal of preparation and planning could realistically have been done before the referendum, given real-world constraints on time and resources. Also it was a vote which could have gone either way, not a moon landing or a new bridge construction.
2. ''And are you satisfied with the progress of the negotiations thus far?''
If you'd asked me this in June 2016 I'd have hoped for more; but am I surprised, no. I'm not entirely dissatisfied nor entirely satisfied. As someone who didn't vote for reasons to do with 'stopping all immigration' or 'cutting all ties', I'm sanguine around the direction in which the negotiations are heading.

[Oldmanmatt]

Well, looks like Pete’s satisfaction is not shared broadly, across the population.

When an abusive partner Gaslights an unwilling partner into a suicide pact, and drags both into a spiralling hell; it is termed “Murder Suicide “, not democracy.

The split is not clear.
Democracy is not served.
The referendum, was wrong, nothing more than a snapshot of that days feeling and biased by false propaganda from political opportunists for their own gain (almost entirely leavers).

[Oldmanmatt]

Oops: link didn’t paste.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/17/half-britons-now-want-stay-eu-poll-finds-biggest-gap-since-referendum/?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook

[petejh]

Rolls eyes. 'Gaslights into a suicide pact', 'spiraling hell', 'murder suicide'. Are you having another of your melodramatic Sunday morning moments?

Link-wars. About all this thread has served up.

I'll see your 'political propaganda by opportunists', and raise you this quote from today's grauniad:
''It seems obvious now that the weaponisation of social media played some role in both the Brexit referendum and the US election. What’s much less clear, however, is whether it was critical in determining the outcome. Personally, I’m sceptical. Our current obsession with digital technology as the trigger for these political earthquakes may actually be a kind of displacement activity. What we’re overlooking is that none of this would have happened if our ruling elites had noticed what four decades of globalisation and neoliberal economics had done to the life chances of many of our fellow citizens.''

[andy popp]

Thanks for taking the time Pete. Believe it or not, I'm genuinely interested in understanding differing viewpoints.

[Oldmanmatt]

Thanks for taking the time Pete. Believe it or not, I'm genuinely interested in understanding differing viewpoints.

Yep. Absolutely.

Till waiting to a coherent argument pro-Brexit mind you.

The fact that people assume being a remainer makes you a rabid Europhile is irritating though...

Sorry Pete, it’s coming on two years of various models and economic predictions from all corners of the globe, not one of which puts us (our living standards) better off because of this and the vast majority predict significantly lower. All because it felt right on the day.
I’ve said it before, I’ll be first in the queue to buy you a pint and pat your back, if life for kids is improved by this. Because that’s the essence of critical thinking.
If not, if it my children's live harder and smaller, if it diminishes this nation; the Leavers have a huge guilt to carry and will deserve all the riddicule they will undoubtedly recieve.
I happen to feel the evidence is pointing to the latter.
You have failed, repeatedly, to offer up anything more than hopeful jingoism as evidence to support you position.

It is not good enough.

 I hope the consequences of this are minor or wonderful, since we have to be dragged along behind the right-wing, nationalists and out-and-out Nazi’s because of it (FFS, the DUP are suddenly a hugely important polital force and frankley they’re  fucking nuts).

I really do hope you’re right (along with all the others, call it a “Royal You” if you will).


But, the vast majority of the world and (apparently) a slim majority of this country, don’t share your confidence.

At the risk of strawman (and desperately trying to avoid ad-hominem), the whole “But no one can pedict what will happen, it’s never been tried” thing is a pile of shite too.
I mean most of us have reasonable confidence that “Murphy” has that sewn up. If it can go wrong, it will.

But, hey! Fluffy blankets, kittens and tea on the Green. Sugar and spice and all things nice; (we are told to believe) Brexit is made of.

If this turns out to be a negative move, that deminishes our nation etc etc, will you be buying me a pint (assuming any of us can afford such a luxury, ten years from now)?


PS: I’m smiling as I type.

Really, I think this will be a disaster and at some point in the next 15-20 years we will rejoin a different EU and Globalsation will march forward regardless. The EU will  necessarily evolve, as it has already. The US is unlikely to emerge from it’s current tumult as the power it was. I would put money on (Firstly and then in order) China, Europe, Russia and India being the driving force for the next fifty years.
 Genuinely, I think Brexit will sideline us from that change and not in a good way. I think we stand to lose an entire generation of progress and will be forced to rejoin the game from a position of weakness. Losing influence in how it changes in the short term.
When you storm out of the club committee, claiming you will be better off playing at other clubs; you simply lose any ability to influence ANY clubs rules. You are just a punter. This must be a mistake, strategically speaking.
The (strong) possibility that this might also affect my children, in a negative way, and my own prosperity, is a genuine and valid concern, too. I think “Leavers” in their various hues, have been incredibly blas’e on that front; the more influential the more blas’e. There should be some consequence for these people, should they be proved wrong, beyond simple ridicule.

I read a story once, author long forgotten, that told of an end to war. The premise being that any “Parliament” that voted for war, would immediately be dissolved and the members shipped to service as private soldiers in the front line of their war.
Now, if our Brexiteers were tied to some similar raft, I’d be happy to fall in line and believe...

Maybe.

[petejh]

I don't feel any need to 'offer up' anything - you aren't some online arbiter. If you ever met me in person I'd gladly sit down over a drink and discuss it amicably with you - hopefully you'd find me open-minded and reasonable. As per earlier, why on earth would I try to explain my position on here to be shouted down by a 90% who disagree? The internet being what it is there isn't much scope for nuanced discussion and finding points of agreement.

I'm not sure why you mentioned 'halting the march of globalisation'? Nothing about the referendum for me was about wanting to 'halt globalisation'.

Your point about 'yours and your kids future wealth' is impossible to know. Do you have a personal economic forecast for the OMM family spanning the next 1,3,5,10 and 20 years? And if you did would it be accurate? What are you going to do - extrapolate an economic institute's model down to individual level and then track to compare what it predicted in 2017 to how you're doing in 2027? I'm sure that will be accurate and meaningful in the real world.. As more than one poster on this thread has pointed out, economic forecasts - especially ones involving GDP - are a) usually wrong and b) quite meaningless on a personal level.

Brexit or no brexit, in life you'l probably do well if you work hard, seek to develop yourself and have a good attitude. Combined with a slice of good luck and grabbing opportunities where you can. The same as it's always been. (Along with that great guarantee of future prosperity - being born into wealth).

Beyond that: mass unemployment, recession, out-of-control inflation, depreciation, economic crashes, the next bubble; no-one knows.