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EU Referendum (Read 507881 times)

Johnny Brown

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#1425 Re: EU Referendum
July 15, 2016, 03:07:13 pm
Better together sums it up I think, on both counts. Although I can understand that given the choice of one or the other, the Scottish will choose the EU over the UK.

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#1426 Re: EU Referendum
July 15, 2016, 03:23:03 pm
Better together sums it up I think, on both counts. Although I can understand that given the choice of one or the other, the Scottish will choose the EU over the UK.

It must have been clear to many in Scotland that that was the choice they were presented with at the last referendum.

I supect there was some element of "surely the English will come to their senses eventually" though.

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#1427 Re: EU Referendum
July 16, 2016, 12:09:53 am
I now sincerely hope that, when scotland goes, they'll take everything north of the watford gap with them.

Fultonius

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#1428 Re: EU Referendum
July 16, 2016, 01:26:18 am
I now sincerely hope that, when scotland goes, they'll take everything north of the watford gap with them.

What, those Brexit voting loons?  No thanks...

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#1429 Re: EU Referendum
July 16, 2016, 02:46:43 am
The Wren's Nest and Almscliffe in Scotland?


Johnny Brown

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#1430 Re: EU Referendum
July 18, 2016, 02:55:33 pm
Quote
Try this for opinion from the financial world. It won't convince you of anything of course, it's just opinion. But at least the site contains a spectrum of views from positive to negative from people close to the stuff you're talking about, not political commentators.


Johnny Brown

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#1431 Re: EU Referendum
July 18, 2016, 03:26:53 pm
Quote
ARM Holdings anyone? One of the most successful UK tech companies you've never heard of, whose products are in the majority of the world's phones and computers.

Quote
The first proper test of Theresa May's premiership has come - predictably enough - totally out of left field (ha ha - welcome to No.10 Mrs May).

It is the £24bn takeover of ARM, the UK's ONLY world leading hi-tech electronic company, by SoftBank of Japan.

The point is that her sole proper policy speech since announcing she wanted to become PM - the one she gave in Birmingham just a week ago - was completely unambiguous that she opposed foreign companies buying our strategically important businesses.

She cited Cadbury, which was acquired by Kraft of the US, and AstraZeneca, which narrowly escaped takeover by Pfizer. Both would have been blocked by her, she suggested.

Well she now has an opportunity to put her mouth where Japanese money is. What will she say about the surrender of ARM?

She cannot pretend it does not matter. ARM designs chips that go into billions of connected devices, from iPhones to a new generation of internet-linked household products.

It is at the heart of Cambridge's hi-tech research and manufacturing cluster. It supports jobs and knowledge well beyond the 3000 plus it directly employs there.

No other UK tech company has its reach or reputation.

What's more, one very important reason why the UK is economically fragile post Brexit is our unsustainably large current account deficit which is due - in part - to decades of selling our industrial jewels to foreigners, who have been siphoning profits and dividends earned here to other parts of the world.

So surely, you would say, May must oppose the ARM takeover as proof she is starting a new chapter in the UK's economic stewardship - an end to the hollowing out of our better-paying industries - which is what she claims.

Well maybe. She will be hearing a different argument from the more conservative officials in the Treasury and Downing Street, and from her more Brexit-loving ministers.

The Treasury will fret that, outside the EU and its single market, we cannot risk creating the perception that we are hostile to investment by foreigners after all these years - because that way lies the risk of capital deserting these shores and consequential penury.

Meanwhile the likes of Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox will doubtless argue that the ARM takeover is a vote of confidence in our supposedly glorious economic prospects outside the EU.

So this is a huge test of May, right at the start of her premiership. Will she measure up?

UPDATE 10.20

Well it didn't take long for May and her Chancellor Philip Hammond to be captured by Treasury orthodoxy.

They have welcomed the sale of ARM to SoftBank, with Hammond claiming it will turn this "great British company into a global phenomenon" - which, some would say, is to cynically ignore that it already is a global phenomenon.

May has obviously decided to go with the spin that Brexit hasn't turned off successful overseas investors from investing here.

But this is to gloss over that the Brexit-induced collapse in sterling makes our crown-jewel assets cheaper to foreigners than they've been in many years.

As I mentioned earlier, if the government simply waves through a stream of opportunistic takeovers of our great companies while sterling is on the floor, our capacity to ever again pay our way in the world will be fatally holed.

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#1432 Re: EU Referendum
July 18, 2016, 03:37:28 pm
UPDATE 10.20

Well it didn't take long for May and her Chancellor Philip Hammond to be captured by Treasury orthodoxy.

They have welcomed the sale of ARM to SoftBank, with Hammond claiming it will turn this "great British company into a global phenomenon" - which, some would say, is to cynically ignore that it already is a global phenomenon.

May has obviously decided to go with the spin that Brexit hasn't turned off successful overseas investors from investing here.

But this is to gloss over that the Brexit-induced collapse in sterling makes our crown-jewel assets cheaper to foreigners than they've been in many years.

As I mentioned earlier, if the government simply waves through a stream of opportunistic takeovers of our great companies while sterling is on the floor, our capacity to ever again pay our way in the world will be fatally holed.


Quote from: Hermann Hauser (founder of ARM)
ARM is the proudest achievement of my life. The proposed sale to SoftBank is a sad day for me and for technology in Britain.

johnx2

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#1433 Re: EU Referendum
July 18, 2016, 03:38:46 pm
Better together sums it up I think, on both counts. Although I can understand that given the choice of one or the other, the Scottish will choose the EU over the UK.

abso bloody bleedin' bloody lootely

petejh

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#1434 Re: EU Referendum
July 20, 2016, 02:42:48 pm
Shame about ARM, I suppose. Although since the 80s UK manufacturing seems to have been getting flogged to foreign bidders no matter the circumstances, the decade, or the government of the day.

And yet more bad news for determind catastrophe-addicts: bank of england report shows no clear evidence of a sharp brexit slowdown. Or good news to some. Depends on your outlook.


Source
IMF slashes UK growth forecasts after Brexit
'Pound breaks $1.31 after UK jobless rate falls to fresh 11-year low
European bourses edge higher on robust earnings results
FTSE 100 poised to close above 6,700 for the first time since August 2015
UK unemployment falls to 4.9pc in the three months to May
Bank of England surveys shows no clear evidence of sharp Brexit slowdown
FTSE 250 just 2pc off pre-Brexit levels



'12:02pm
BoE agents report encouraging to the UK business community
Following the release of the Bank of England's agents report which showed that there is no clear evidence of sharp Brexit slowdown, Adam Tyler, chief executive of the National Association of Commercial Finance Brokers reacts:

"Coupled with the robust jobs data published this morning, this latest report from the Bank of England will provide considerable encouragement to the UK business community.

"The findings are certainly consistent with what we are seeing on the ground, namely that most businesses are carrying on more or less as normal.

"Businesses are monitoring events closely, especially news surrounding future trading relations, but the corporate paralysis some suggested has simply not materialised.

BoE
"It's not quite business as usual, but for many businesses in many sectors it's not far off. The challenge now is to ensure businesses continue to receive the funding and support they need in the uncertain times ahead. Again, there is no sign, as yet, that bank funding has dried up.

"Businesses appear to have taken a very pragmatic view on recent political events. Be cautious, certainly, but don't be overwhelmed."



Just a small story in the papers. If it were a story from the BoE about 'danger to UK economy/jobs/growth/gritstone' it would be headline fare. Strange world isn't it.

1 month now since brexit - still plenty of time yet for economic catastrophe of the scale predicted by the sages on here...  :)

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#1435 Re: EU Referendum
July 20, 2016, 02:49:48 pm
1 month now since brexit referendum - still plenty of time yet for economic catastrophe of the scale predicted by the sages on here...  :)

Right now the UK is still part of the EU.

Still plenty of time yet for Article 50 to be enacted and the markets to react to the uncertainty that follows such action.

Will Hunt

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#1436 Re: EU Referendum
July 20, 2016, 02:55:47 pm
Can't remember now, Pete, but did you mention the downgrading of the country's credit rating? Or the IMF forecasting that global growth will take a knock, with the UK being worst hit of the developed states (see "spanner in the works" story reported yesterday)?

I'm no economic Mystic Meg and I'm not trying to paint a picture of doom and gloom, just pointing out that you seem to be revelling in picking and choosing the favourable stories from a wider and very complex picture.

Another bad news story: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-36835566
Not directly related to The Economy, but science and academia is an industry where the UK is genuinely a world leading force.

petejh

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#1437 Re: EU Referendum
July 20, 2016, 03:22:35 pm
No, I'm well aware of the other stories? They get plenty of airing on here (cherry picking going on?). I think it's good to have a balance

erm

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#1438 Re: EU Referendum
July 20, 2016, 03:31:16 pm
Okay, so pete do the below hold or not?

Early effects of leave vote appear mixed. More definitive metrics (GDP etc.) will not be available for some months.

All models of the consequences of an actual Brexit have yet to be tested, by actually leaving the EU and seeing what happens. Therefore, all concerns related to these predictions are still fully valid.

petejh

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#1439 Re: EU Referendum
July 20, 2016, 04:04:30 pm
Of course 'concerns are valid'. There's a world of difference between valid concerns and painting an unrealisitc picture of a disaster story, which is what reading this thread has been like sometimes. As I keep banging on, the views on this thread are heavily biased toward negative news stories and of course that reflects the 84% of UKBers (who voted on the poll) who were in favour for remain. It amuses me that when I post up stuff that sounds positive people such as Will are happy to ask me if I think I'm deliberately cherry-picking positive news. Of course I am - because there's so much bias and cherry-picking of the negative on here it's unreal.

Fultonius

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#1440 Re: EU Referendum
July 20, 2016, 04:12:40 pm
Of course I am - because there's so much bias and cherry-picking of the negative on here it's unreal.

You think so?

I reckon if you took a random selection of brexit based economic news articles it would look worse than on here, as you post positive story for every bad one!

(i.e. I would hazard a guess that 9/10 commentators/experts/whatevers think that shit is hitting the fan.)

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#1441 Re: EU Referendum
July 20, 2016, 04:22:22 pm
there's so much bias and cherry-picking of the negative on here it's unreal.

Except its real, and thats why you are offering alternative points of view.  However language such as...

predicted by the sages on here...  :)

....despite the smiley comes across as somewhat cocksure and a little patronising, to me at least, can't speak for others.

As you've said yourself, nobody knows what is going to happen, so no one is "painting an unrealistic picture of a disaster story" as you are suggesting because.....no one, including yourself, knows whats going to happen, rather they are expressing their 'valid concerns'.  Really what did you expect when the majority of posters on the forum voted  for Remain?  For their views to suddenly switch in light of the referendum results and them to change their mind and say "Oh well, that didn't go the way I expected it to, lets not worry though I'm sure everything will be all right, after all those who lead the campaign to leave are taking the bull by the horns and sorting everything out and theres some scope for short term profits for those affluent enough to be able to indulge in shares, so thats reason enough to be happy".

Will Hunt

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#1442 Re: EU Referendum
July 20, 2016, 04:27:27 pm
I don't think I've ever said anywhere on this thread that there might not be some positives to leaving the EU (which we haven't done yet, btw). However, whatever these positives might be are overshadowed by the net negative effect.
If I was selecting a few negatives in a largely positive picture then that would be cherry picking, but that's not the case (obviously your opinion may differ).

a dense loner

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#1443 Re: EU Referendum
July 20, 2016, 04:34:19 pm
Brilliant, I love the "nobody knows what's going to happen so nobody's painting a disaster story". Apart from when someone like Pete offers a scenario then you try to pull his throat out of his mouth.. Brilliant :thumbsup:

No wonder I spend all day sitting in a chair pissing myself. May have to start investing in some special pants.

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#1444 Re: EU Referendum
July 20, 2016, 04:48:44 pm
Brilliant, I love the "nobody knows what's going to happen so nobody's painting a disaster story". Apart from when someone like Pete offers a scenario then you try to pull his throat out of his mouth.. Brilliant :thumbsup:

Could you point to where I've tried to metaphorically pull Pete's throat out please?  All I've done is say that Pete's links are no different to those others are posting which he rightly points out are all speculative, just as his are. 

I also very clearly stated that it is good to hear alternative points of view to your own.


Perhaps it would be constructive if Pete could list out of the host of posts what he considers to be 'valid concerns' and what constitutes 'painting a disaster story'.  That would serve as a basis for more structured discussion.  Or is it simply the volume of people who have 'valid concerns' that makes it 'painting a disaster story'?


Will Hunt

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#1445 Re: EU Referendum
July 20, 2016, 04:49:56 pm
That's just being an old fart, Dense. Do your pelvic floor exercises and maybe get some of these. I think the Princess Elsa ones would look great on you.


Fultonius

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#1446 Re: EU Referendum
July 20, 2016, 05:04:02 pm
OK, not the most scientifically rigorous method ( mainly because I'm not sure if using an "incognito window" is enough to rid me of my filter bubble) but i just googled "brexit" and "economy". Headlines from 1st page:

Quote
IMF cuts UK growth forecasts following Brexit vote

Quote
FTSE 100 smashes 6700 as Bank of England says 'no evidence' of sharp Brexit slowdown
Quote
Uncertainty Reigns in Global Economy Following Brexit Referendum
If you read the article...
Quote
A Brexit Economic Slump
Quote
UK economy must endure 'short, sharp shock' after Brexit vote
Quote
Brexit fallout to hit UK economic growth: EY Item Club
Quote
Brexit takes toll on German economic confidence, survey says
Quote
Crashing down? Brexit vote created 'substantial risk' to EU, says shock Brussels report
Quote
CEBR: Brexit impact could cost economy £142.5bn
Quote
IMF: Brexit a 'Substantial' Risk to World Economy
Quote
PwC forecasts slowdown in Northern Ireland economy after Brexit result
Quote
PwC forecasts no post Brexit recession for Northern Ireland
Quote
Brexit 'will be horrible for UK economy' - fund manager
Quote
Brexit impact is going to be horrible, says leading City fund manager

Now, it doesn't look so fucking rosy, does it? It's not cherry picking Pete, it's just a lot of people saying the same things. Of course, no one knows what will happen and economists are notoriously shit at predicting the future. But they ALL saying it. ALL!

Yes, this could all be media bias...but I am not sure why those who previously championed brexit (express etc.) would suddenly be downplaying the positives? What's the angle?






a dense loner

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#1447 Re: EU Referendum
July 20, 2016, 05:50:10 pm
What's the angle? They knew it would be shit for a bit, everybody did, why report that it's shit at this moment in time?

A Jooser

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#1448 Re: EU Referendum
July 20, 2016, 06:05:31 pm
Re. EU Science funding.

The below is taken from https://ec.europa.eu/programmes/horizon2020/en/news/outcome-referendum-united-kingdom
and seems to be the official position on Horizon 2020 science funding - the EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (I've put text in bold for emphasis).
Quote
The Statement of 29 June of the Heads of State or Government of 27 Member States, as well as the Presidents of the European Council and the European Commission, confirms that until the UK leaves the EU, EU law continues to apply to and within the UK, both when it comes to rights and obligations. This includes the eligibility of UK legal entities to participate and receive funding in Horizon 2020 actions.

Similar is said here: http://cambridgecleantech.org.uk/ixion-brexit-and-the-impact-on-european-horizon-2020-funding (again my bold)
Quote
The UK is committed to Horizon 2020 until its completion in 2020. This is cast into European law and the budgets are already fully in place. Therefore, there should be no effect on this funding whatsoever. When the UK leaves the EU it is likely, although not certain, to take on the position of an “Associated State” like Norway, and receive full benefits from H2020.

There's another balanced article on this funding which seems to support these points here:
https://www.myriadassociates.com/news/2016/how-will-brexit-affect-the-79bn-of-rd-horizon-2020-funding-from-the-eu/

Going on the news reports it seems clear that UK scientists are being discriminated against post the Brexit result. It also seems clear, based on the above, that this should not be happening. If the funding pot's in place and the UK has contributed to it up to 2020, UK institutions are entitled to a share up to 2020.

Now I know that will be of no consolation to scientists losing their jobs, universities not getting funding, etc., but I can't help wondering if the lawyers being engaged in trying to overturn the referendum result might not be more gainfully employed in protecting the scientists' interests.

It's a great pity that there's still no attempt to provide at least some degree of critical scrutiny or questioning of the issues around Brexit by the mainstream media. An article quoting scientists saying the funding cut is happening is all very well, but where is the analysis of why it's happening?

Fultonius, I notice you didn't backlink your quotes or give sources but I'm curious to know how many of the red ones were from The Guardian or FT websites?




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#1449 Re: EU Referendum
July 20, 2016, 06:33:43 pm
Existing science funding isn't being cut - but Itbwill be in the future - because in the risk adverse world of grant application you don't want any weaknesses in your application (eg a UK partner..). It's not very nice but perfectly understandable..

The whole grant review process is so qualitative that it would be next to impossible to positively discriminate against any bias...

Problem is - even if we never leave there will be a three year period where we are not part of any applications - so a big gap in the future funding will appear.

Sadder in my view is not the £££ for some new fancy syncamegatronublaster etc.. But loads of EU funding is designed to deliberately encourage collaboration between nations - funding travel for meetings to develop ideas/concepts/ideas. From these loads of new ideas, collaborations and research friendships emerge. We'll lose out on all of this now. We'll be like US researchers who are sometimes invited - but can't be funded etc...

So Jooser - for us academics it's just tough shit....

 

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