[a dense loner]

Jump on twig it's fine.

Offwidth did you really just say "it's easy enough to tell through polls"? Which poll said we'd vote to leave the eu? Not one of them that I can recall.

An itv Wales/Cardiff uni poll had the Welsh vote remain? Listen to yourselves.

[a dense loner]

Sorry I posted at same time as rich d. Obviously it says 2minutes later and I'm a lifetime out, forgive me slackers.

[Nigel]

Twig, much as I would love to since I wanted to remain I just can’t equate a Yougov poll, no matter how well carried out, against a plebiscite of the entire country. Neither can the politicians, otherwise they’d have just got Yougov to do a sample referendum and saved a lot of silly bother.

People may well have changed their minds based on what has happened since but if there’s one argument no-one can use its that they weren’t warned! Personally I can’t see that the swing would be too big this near to the event, and anyway there is simply no way a second ref can be held anytime too soon after the last. In that case then the only hope anyone has of getting a second ref is that over the next few months a) the economy totally tanks (which I would hope anyone in charge would be trying to avoid regardless. But may happen anyway) and b) people see rejoining the EU as the answer. Debatable seeing as they couldn’t see it the first time, despite the evidence. Oh and for good measure c) the rest of the EU will let us back in with all our previous opt-outs after our collective hissy fit. Very unlikely – they would make us negotiate. But that’s what we’re doing now so what’s the advantage to Britain? I just can’t see a 2nd ref happening now that the cat is out of the bag.

I agree with Offwidth that the only “escape” from Brexit is for parliament to reject it. But the democratic implication of that for the politicians who voted overwhelmingly to hold it in the first place makes it very unlikely. As does the advice mooted today that it may be done on a royal perogative, rather than a vote. Presumably to avoid the unpalatable outcome of a vote in parliament (it’ll be unpalatable for politicians whatever the result, and I’m sure they’re happy to wash their hands of as much responsibility as possible as recent events demonstrate). A general election which installed a government on an explicit manifesto of not leaving the EU appears to be the only way I can see. The Lib Dems are offering that. SNP I suspect but they def need a coaltition with someone unless they stand in England and Wales (!!). No-one else (yet). Plus the conservative candidates for PM aren’t offering a GE anyway as things stand. And god knows what the EU would make of that sort of thing. I think we are bound to leave, albeit in some way shape or form yet to be decided.

[tregiffian]

+1
Though I am and was one of the leavers.

[tomtom]

According to this FT article - salient image in the tweet linked,

700000 that's Seven Hundred Thousand fewer jobs advertised online in the week post Brexit compared to the same week last year... (Normal Total would be 1.5 million)

Eek.

https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/750618809703292928

[Jaspersharpe]

Twig, much as I would love to since I wanted to remain I just can’t equate a Yougov poll, no matter how well carried out, against a plebiscite of the entire country. Neither can the politicians, otherwise they’d have just got Yougov to do a sample referendum and saved a lot of silly bother.

People may well have changed their minds based on what has happened since but if there’s one argument no-one can use its that they weren’t warned! Personally I can’t see that the swing would be too big this near to the event, and anyway there is simply no way a second ref can be held anytime too soon after the last. In that case then the only hope anyone has of getting a second ref is that over the next few months a) the economy totally tanks (which I would hope anyone in charge would be trying to avoid regardless. But may happen anyway) and b) people see rejoining the EU as the answer. Debatable seeing as they couldn’t see it the first time, despite the evidence. Oh and for good measure c) the rest of the EU will let us back in with all our previous opt-outs after our collective hissy fit. Very unlikely – they would make us negotiate. But that’s what we’re doing now so what’s the advantage to Britain? I just can’t see a 2nd ref happening now that the cat is out of the bag.

I agree with Offwidth that the only “escape” from Brexit is for parliament to reject it. But the democratic implication of that for the politicians who voted overwhelmingly to hold it in the first place makes it very unlikely. As does the advice mooted today that it may be done on a royal perogative, rather than a vote. Presumably to avoid the unpalatable outcome of a vote in parliament (it’ll be unpalatable for politicians whatever the result, and I’m sure they’re happy to wash their hands of as much responsibility as possible as recent events demonstrate). A general election which installed a government on an explicit manifesto of not leaving the EU appears to be the only way I can see. The Lib Dems are offering that. SNP I suspect but they def need a coaltition with someone unless they stand in England and Wales (!!). No-one else (yet). Plus the conservative candidates for PM aren’t offering a GE anyway as things stand. And god knows what the EU would make of that sort of thing. I think we are bound to leave, albeit in some way shape or form yet to be decided.

Wise words in general Nige. Only things I'd pick up on being that 1."as things stand" re what the Tory leadership candidates are saying presently is very pertinent.

They (and let's be clear, it's only relevant what May says really) have to say what they know the people who will elect them want to hear. So once the two candidates are decided it all comes down to people most of us have zero to do with to decide the next Prime Minister. A lot of them being hard right, Euro sceptic nut jobs (democracy, "taking control" and not having unelected people in charge hasn't worked very well here but that point's already been made).

Once they win, they can actually start saying/doing what they think rather than what the swivel eyed loon element of their party need to hear. Which is why I wouldn't read too much into what May etc are saying now.

And 2. We haven't left yet so the idea that the EU won't "let us back in" is irrelevant.

I agree that a second referendum is extremely unlikely and also unnecessary. I disagree that the UK leaving the EU is in any way inevitable.

Although I also agree with what others have said in that, should it happen, the actual deal that is finally done will mean that so many compromises are made that voting "Leave" will have basically been a very costly irrelevance.

[Offwidth]

Jump on twig it's fine.

Offwidth did you really just say "it's easy enough to tell through polls"? Which poll said we'd vote to leave the eu? Not one of them that I can recall.

An itv Wales/Cardiff uni poll had the Welsh vote remain? Listen to yourselves.

I'm talking about big poll movements, 10 points or more, well above the error bars. We haven't even pressed the button to leave yet and won't be doing anything fast.

Politicians need to get re-elected and always move to the big message; this government has changed its mind more than any I've seen so with a split in the party and a small majority, why will it stop now?  May et al will talk up dealing with miigration to try and win the leadership and then do as little as they have to so they stand a chance in 2020. This leave campaign with democracy on its shoulder will be complict in an unelected prime minister, ongoing migration, and new trade rules that, unlike the EU omes, bypass any democratic checks.

[Offwidth]

For dense:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/brexit-britain-property-bubble

[tregiffian]

The nice man in the link says the EU`s position is precarious. Think Toni Kurz.

[slackline]

Dorling, D. (2016) Brexit: the decision of a divided country BMJ 2016; 354 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.i3697

PDF Preprint

[Jaspersharpe]

The nice man in the link says the EU`s position is precarious. Think Toni Kurz.

Hope he has a blinder against France as I want Germany to win it.

[GraemeA]

 

A portrait of one but a family I know have just come back from a tour of Italy for 10 days. They said it was bizarre, they were treated like kings and having drinks bought for them for Britain leaving the eu. Saying everyone was saying we love the uk because you've had the balls to do what we haven't, we hope to do it now, we hate the eu. This happened all over Italy apparently. He said we didn't even mention what we voted for!

Feel free to pick this apart.

I have just come back from 8 days in Italy and Croatia. Not a mention of the EU other than sympathy when I mentioned that the price of meals had gone up by 20%.

Mind you, you ain't your mate so your anecdotal evidence is 2nd hand. Mine is first hand.

I am off to Chamonix and then Villers (in Swiss) for the Lead and Speed WC's on Saturday and already every message I have had from European work colleagues is WTF has Britain done, not a single one has said well done.

[Oldmanmatt]

A portrait of one but a family I know have just come back from a tour of Italy for 10 days. They said it was bizarre, they were treated like kings and having drinks bought for them for Britain leaving the eu. Saying everyone was saying we love the uk because you've had the balls to do what we haven't, we hope to do it now, we hate the eu. This happened all over Italy apparently. He said we didn't even mention what we voted for!

Feel free to pick this apart.

I have just come back from 8 days in Italy and Croatia. Not a mention of the EU other than sympathy when I mentioned that the price of meals had gone up by 20%.

Mind you, you ain't your mate so your anecdotal evidence is 2nd hand. Mine is first hand.

I am off to Chamonix and then Villers (in Swiss) for the Lead and Speed WC's on Saturday and already every message I have had from European work colleagues is WTF has Britain done, not a single one has said well done.

I have some Romanian friends (notably all living in Dubai) who think it's great and want Romania out too.

I have Romanian friends and relatives, in Romania, Italy and here; who think we're plain barking mad.

French friends, universally sympathetic and bemused.

Italian Friends split 50/50.

My one and only Kraut mate, is absolutely beside himself with mirth and sure we're doomed.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[a dense loner]

That's sound graham I did ask for it to be picked apart.

[Oldmanmatt]

That's sound graham I did ask for it to be picked apart.

In the interests of raising this thread to a more British "take the piss out of every thing serious"...

http://www.citymetric.com/politics/gove-story-final-outing-london-s-comedy-mayor-boris-johnson-2234

After all, which ever way you voted, it is/was the wankers in charge who deserve the greatest ridicule and blame for all the negative fallout and the problems that lead to the the public dissatisfaction with the EU in the first place.

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[Nigel]

Now Gove is out of the race for PM, I can't seem to stop myself imagining him, Boris, and Dave all together in a smoke filled, wood panelled London gent's club laughing about all this, necking brandy and slapping each other on the back at how these good ol' school friends and rivals tried to trip each other up, fucked the country in the process, and got away scot free.

My nightmare is that Boris joined Leave to become PM, but neither Boris nor Gove expected to win, knowing it would fuck the country. Did you see their faces on the 24th? Shit scared. When Dave stepped aside and didn't trigger article 50 (both of which directly contradicted everything he'd said previously) basically handing Boris the crown there and then, they soon confected a way for them to both get themselves as far from the scene of the crime as possible. I mean, Boris rolled over a bit easily from his lifelong ambition didn't he? Suspicious. Polar opposite of Gove who swore blind being PM was literally the last thing on earth that he ever would or could do. Suspicious. And do professional journalists like Gove's wife really accidentally copy in members of the public when they're sending messages which would make someone about to stand for election distinctly unpopular? The whole thing stinks to high heaven.

Can we agree now that if Brexit does go tits up and these lot pop up again in a couple of years to "ride to the rescue" we'll have a UKB whip round to get them blasted into outer space? They can't ever be trusted.

[petekitso]

Iiiiiin - I share that vision.

The Tory party are about to appoint a PM with a dodgy CV whose USP is that doesn't really want to get into the detail but everything will probably be fine if everyone just bucks up.

If we want to break free of international capitalism then that would be exciting. Otherwise, what is happening now is unanticipated - the people in charge have no idea what to do. it's not great so far is it?

[rich d]

The BDO's monthly High Street Sales Tracker showed a strong start to June, with sales growing 3.8% year on year. That decreased throughout the month and by the end of June, after the referendum, sales had fallen by 8.1% compared with last year.
Reflected in my sector, with an almost immediate post referendum slump, could be the start of a new recession, hopefully not.

[seankenny]

Worth a read if you're not stopped by the paywall:

https://next.ft.com/content/7f326126-4422-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d#axzz4Dl1tt2Ar

[Obi-Wan is lost...]

I'm sure it'll all be fine, just as the financiers who f'd up the economy last time were rightly prosecuted and made to pay their dues, I'm sure the politicians who have used the future of the country as a pawn in their career lead power games, I'm confident they will all be made to pay the price. 

[cowboyhat]

Just when you thought it impossible to dislike Gove anymore than you already do:

http://cheeseford.net/blog/?p=725

[Fultonius]

I'm sure it'll all be fine, just as the financiers who f'd up the economy last time were rightly prosecuted and made to pay their dues, I'm sure the politicians who have used the future of the country as a pawn in their career lead power games, I'm confident they will all be made to pay the price. 

At least the bank of England forced the banks to maintain higher levels of reserves to prevent another 2007/8 style........oh wait a minute.......what's that Mark Carney.......?  Ah yes, let's reduce the capital requirements for the banks.....nice.

The only positive I've heard so from from brexit was from Simon Jenkins - "A stale leadership class is on the way out and the property bubble will burst. I can’t see the bad news"

[i.munro]

The only positive I've heard so from from brexit was from Simon Jenkins - "A stale leadership class is on the way out and the property bubble will burst. I can’t see the bad news"

So "stale" being replaced with batshit-crazy and a bubble that the govt have spent bilions of our money re-inflating is going to burst -struggling to see the positive.

[Fultonius]

The only positive I've heard so from from brexit was from Simon Jenkins - "A stale leadership class is on the way out and the property bubble will burst. I can’t see the bad news"

So "stale" being replaced with batshit-crazy and a bubble that the govt have spent bilions of our money re-inflating is going to burst -struggling to see the positive.

Oh yeah, it's fully shit in the short term....clutching at straws...

[i.munro]

Best I can come up with is: without the malign onfluence of the most extreme r-wing govt of any European country since the war, the EU will inevitably now move slightly to the left.