[dave]

Do all the people who vote remain really think that the government won't do what they've been told/asked to do?

What makes you think that a slender win of 51.9% will make a reluctant and currently non-existent PM commit career suicide and drag the UK out of the EU, given nobody has even the faintest idea about how it's going to work?

[SA Chris]

Do all the people who vote remain really think that the government won't do what they've been told/asked to do?

What makes you think that a slender win of 51.9% will make a reluctant and currently non-existent PM commit career suicide and drag the UK out of the EU, given nobody has even the faintest idea about how it's going to work?

Well Farage was already calling for a second referendum before the first one if he didn't get the result he wanted, so why not?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681

[a dense loner]

I don't really listen to the clawings of someone who thinks they have no option but to lose. That's what farage did there. What makes me think that Dave? A hell of a lot. Slackers there has never been a vote of this magnitude so the earlier referendums that have been overturned don't mean a lot when compared to half the population voting. John x2 theyve been instructed to leave the eu, that simple, have you been on the moon the last few wks?

[dave]

Yes they've been instructed to leave the EU, but no, nobody is bound to obey that instruction. Basically if nobody in the top brass wants to do it or doesn't think it is in the country's best interest to do it then it won't happen. Would be incredibly naive to think otherwise - like you expect politicians to keep promises they never made. They don't even keep promises they have made.

[johnx2]

Joh x2 theyve been instructed to leave the eu, that simple, have you been on the moon the last few wks?

personally I think leaving the EU will happen, but haven't a clue what that actually means. I feel I am not alone in this cluelessness...

[slackline]

Slackers there has never been a vote of this magnitude so the earlier referendums that have been overturned don't mean a lot when compared to half the population voting.

When you say 'magnitude' it seems you're referring to the number of people voting rather than the implications of the result.

The turnout for the recent EU Referendum was 72% not the 'half the population voting' you claim.  Of those 72% 51.9% (just over half) voted to Leave.  This equates to 27.03% of the population who are eligible to vote who voted to Leave. 

When you refer to "earlier referendums" there have only been three equivalent  national referendums in the UK (there have been others in individual countries England/Wales/Scotland/Norhtern Ireland)...

1975 Membership of the European Common Market - Turnout varied by nation between 47% and 66%, the result was non-binding, but not overturned (vast majority of MPs supported joining the EU).
2011 Alternative Vote Referendum - Turnout varied by region between 35-55%, the result was binding, could not be overturned.

Yes, compared to the two other national referendums turnout was higher in this one.

However I'm unaware of the "earlier referendums that have been overturned" that you refer to, could you point me to where I might find out about these please?

Lets not cloud facts by being lazy in our writing.

[i.munro]

Joh x2 theyve been instructed to leave the eu, that simple, have you been on the moon the last few wks?

personally I think leaving the EU will happen, but haven't a clue what that actually means. I feel I am not alone in this cluelessness...

Parliament (whatever lies the leave side has been telling) is sovereign.
It can't be instructed - well possibly theoretically by the Queen I'm unclear on that bit.

I too however fear exit  will happen simply because the EU will not be able to tolerate a member state continuing to play the hokey-kokey.

[tomtom]

continuing to play the hokey-kokey.

The hokey kokey is THE game now...

That's why the Tory candidates are not guaranteeing EU citizens here can stay post Brexit... gives the UK some leverage to protect the interests of the 1.3 million Brits living in the EU... Despite the 'no negotiations pre Article 50' statements  from the EU there will be loads going on in the background... both conversations between sides and formation of plans and strategies. Its further complicated for the UK as it has to deal with both the European Council, and the individual member states themselves. I think this means it can be a fucking mess trying to get 27 countries to agree - but also means the UK can play a bit of divide an conquer (get a few on side and build pressure etc..).

Anyway, I suspect this whole process will last a very long time - two years seems rather optimistic..

In the meantime I guess much can go on as before (as in we're still in the EU etc..) but, the uncertainty will affect investment in the UK (as evidenced by statements by Siemens last week..). If you are a Global company looking to build a factory in Europe, do you (a) go for France/Belgium/Spain etc.. that you know will be part of the single market until - until it ends or (b) UK - which may have many positives (in terms of skills/workforce etc..) - but you really don't know whether or not it'll be in the EU.

Its a no brainer. Sadly.

Anyway, the sky won't fall in ~ we'll probably enter recession but hopefully not a bad one ~ all clouds have a silver lining somewhere!

[johnx2]

Uplifting stuff...

I'm actually amazed how much this is getting to me - not having an EU passport, kids' (youngest in Berlin atm) choices constrained. And mine for that matter (that little place near Biarritz seems more remote, yeah I know your heart bleeds...) and what it says about us. Labour take over by extra-parliamentary forces is just bloody icing...

[seankenny]

theyve been instructed to leave the eu, that simple

The collision of fantasy and reality is going to make a lot of English people very angry.

[seankenny]

I voted leave for reasons to do with self-governance and a more global outlook...

And who is responsible for the UK's self-governance and global outlook? Would that be MPs, business leaders, the City, universities, etc? Are those who will be responsible for this shift away from parochialism into globalism be living in Rotherham or Barnsley, or will they be the residents of London, Oxford, Cambridge?

[a dense loner]

Sorry slackers I read your "government always do what they promised in their manifestos" as "referendums" that's why I replied like that. On the other point, over 33million people voted, the country has 70million people in it including non eu non British citizens, that's half the people voted. You can wrap it up in flowers but that's that.

I.munro all I'm doing is repeating what nearly every politician has said, that they've been instructed by the British people to leave the eu.

Thirdly, do you have a point Sean?

[petejh]

Slackers there has never been a vote of this magnitude so the earlier referendums that have been overturned don't mean a lot when compared to half the population voting.

When you say 'magnitude' it seems you're referring to the number of people voting rather than the implications of the result.

The turnout for the recent EU Referendum was 72% not the 'half the population voting' you claim.  Of those 72% 51.9% (just over half) voted to Leave.  This equates to 27.03% of the population who are eligible to vote who voted to Leave. 

....

Lets not cloud facts by being lazy in our writing.

Slackers since you put in the effort to be able to tell us what percentage of eligible voters voted for 'leave', it would be in the interests of context to also tell us what percentage of eligible voters voted for 'remain'. Otherwise your stats only tell one side of the tale. A bit like this whole thread.

[slackline]

Sorry slackers I read your "government always do what they promised in their manifestos" as "referendums" that's why I replied like that.

You started by asking "Do all the people who vote remain really think that the government won't do what they've been told/asked to do?"

Given only two national referendums, only one of which was non-binding, its not a useful sample on which to base predictions of how governments will act.  I therefore repsonded that governments have a poor history of enacting their manifesto pledges after having been elected, and I therefore don't expect them to do as they've been told/asked to do with regards to this referendum.

You conflated this reference to general elections with referendums and went on to suggest that "earlier referendums that have been overturned don't mean a lot ".

There have not been any such overturned referendums though as there have only been two national referendums prior to the recent EU one and neither of them were overturned.  Where do you get the idea that this happened?

You seem to be making the case that because a non-binding referendum was held that the result of that should be binding.  Thats not the case, if that was what should happen the referendum would have been made binding before it happened but it wasn't.  The result isn't binding and it is therefore not a foregone conclusion that Article 50 will be enacted.  I would suggest reading some of the previously linked articles on the legal aspects but from your other posts in this thread but get the impression you don't really care otherwise you would have already done so.

On the other point, over 33million people voted, the country has 70million people in it including non eu non British citizens, that's half the people voted. You can wrap it up in flowers but that's that.

Except its not, firstly any simpleton knows that 33million doubled is 66 million so 33 million can not and never will be 50% of 70million.

46501241 people voted in the referendum, this is 72% of the eligible population registered to vote (you can't count the unknowns), meaning the eligible population is 64406151. These numbers are within a few seconds of your reach, just as they are mine.

So there are less eligible to vote than you are proposing but a larger number of them turned out to vote than you are suggesting.

If you're going to use numbers and percentages as a basis for supporting a point of view or making a case for one side of an argument then you should, in my opinion,  be accurate with them, especially when they are a few seconds away using a search engine.  But then as per above, you probably don't really care.

On this point...

all I'm doing is repeating what nearly every politician has said, that they've been instructed by the British people to leave the eu.

Firstly it wasn't an instruction because....the referendum was non-binding!  This is not difficult to understand.

Secondly, the one person in a position to trigger Article 50 and "enact the will of the people" as you are suggesting, decided right after the results came in not to and instead resigned, which says a lot about the will to bring this about, and if you look at the stance of other politicians most are for Remain (458 v 158), and the person who everyone expected to step up to the oche  because they led the Leave campaign has stepped out of running for the position that would allow him to do what he's been campaigning for.  That too says a lot to me about the political will to Leave.

[johnx2]

Thirdly, do you have a point Sean?

That those who voted leave voted against the EU (even I get that), but voted for a load of different things. Including, barely believably, some avid citizen of the world globalists voting for their pan-national vision... Either way they're unlikely all to get what they voted for. Whatever the fuck it was they voted for...

[petejh]

I voted leave for reasons to do with self-governance and a more global outlook...

And who is responsible for the UK's self-governance and global outlook? Would that be MPs, business leaders, the City, universities, etc? Are those who will be responsible for this shift away from parochialism into globalism be living in Rotherham or Barnsley, or will they be the residents of London, Oxford, Cambridge?

The answer to that I imagine is that it all depends on what life chances are available to people in Rotherham and Barnsley over the coming twenty years. We know who the movers and shakers are who will shape events in the coming 5-10 years. I don't understand what point you're trying to make? That it's some sort of an immutable law that people from Barnsley or Rotherham must be -what? Racist? Stupid? You're more cynical than I thought! After all people born in Rotherham are in no way inherently inferior human-beings to people born in London or Oxford. Deprivation breeds some toxic views.

[TheTwig]

Interesting to note that most legal experts seem to think that Parliament are the only institution with the authority to trigger article 50 (not the PM), and MP's are something like 70% in favour of staying in the EU. Judging by how little respect politicians seem to have for their constituents these days I would be amazed if article 50 was ever triggered.

The whole thing is a clusterfuck for both 'sides'! 

[a dense loner]

Slackers I think your whole post in reply to me is based on your confusion within the realms of numbers. I said the uk has 70 million people in, this included non eu or non British citizens, this means there's less than 70 who can vote, if 33 voted that's pretty much gonna be there or thereabouts half the people voting.
I didn't start going on about referendums, I've already said it was a simple mistake of me inserting the word where you wrote elections. Every point you made after me already admitting this mistake has just been you going on with yourself and nothing to do with what I was saying.
Interesting to note none of these "experts" said anything before the referendum about it not being legal or binding or add any other word along those lines here. I seem to remember people saying it's the most important thing we'll vote on in our lifetime, every vote counts etc ad nauseam. I don't remember one expert saying why you gonna bother voting you tit it doesn't mean anything if we don't like the vote we'll just change it.

[slackline]

Slackers since you put in the effort to be able to tell us what percentage of eligible voters voted for 'leave', it would be in the interests of context to also tell us what percentage of eligible voters voted for 'remain'. Otherwise your stats only tell one side of the tale. A bit like this whole thread.

As I wrote, these numbers are within a few seconds reach of all of us, so you can work it out for yourself (it doesn't take long).

[a dense loner]

You've lost it slackers, why've you quoted me with something I've not wrote? 

[Oldmanmatt]

Things get worse by the day:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/what-tory-grandees-ken-clarke-and-malcolm-rifkind-really-think-about-leadership

I don't want to be a doom sayer, but you'd have to have a seriously heavy rose tint on your specs to see any of this as anything other than a cluster fuck.

https://www.facebook.com/Channel4NewsDemocracy/videos/1005017416242868/

And pretty sure all the "advisory" and "requires an act of Parliament" points were made on this thread (let alone in the public domain) before the referendum.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tomtom]

Blimey Dense - I've just tried to read four of your posts and given up half way through each it must be catching...
:D

[petejh]

Things get worse by the day:

Matt things get worse for you every day. What's your problem exactly in that article you linked? That two politicians are shit-talking their colleagues?

I don't want to be a doom sayer, but.....

 


This thread is like chinese whispers by internet link.

[slackline]

why've you quoted me with something I've not wrote? 

Sorry I cocked up editing the multiple quotes and mistakenly left the BBCode for your quote which was embeded within that of petejh's post which I was responding to.

[i.munro]

Judging by how little respect politicians seem to have for their constituents these days I would be amazed if article 50 was ever triggered.

To be fair to them not voting for article 50 would, in most cases, be respecting their costituents. After all iin most cases those constituents elected them very recently on the basis that they favoured remaining in the EU.

Unfortunately the Tories will orobably have to balance "respect for their constituents" against  enraging their new leader. Onlly needs a few to actually behave decently & or sulk  though.