[Fultonius]

Anyone know why there’s no figures released for England today? Scotland and Wales released their numbers around 5pm, as normal.

Small print at the bottom of here https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14 says:

"Daily updates are sometimes delayed as data cannot be published until signed off by DHSC."

The bar chart at the bottom shows 1500 new cases on 25/03.

[Bradders]

From what I've seen today on my first day of enforced Daddydaycare it's only a matter of time before stricter measures are enforced. Went for my permitted walk through our local park which is fortunately just over the road from us and saw;

People driving to the park to walk their dogs
People using the skate park which was barrier taped off with signs up saying do not use
Multiple runners / walkers making no attempt to leave 2m social distancing

Clearly a lot of people are working on the principal of 'unless we're expressly forbidden from doing something we're going to keep calm and carry on'

 

Total opposite for me. Local walk with the dog; few people also out walking and running but everyone very clearly observing 2m distance, including an amusing exchange with a family with young children as to who should cross the road (we did in the end obvs.). Plenty of stepping into the road to maintain distance etc. I was reassured that people were taking it seriously. Interesting to see the differences in our own tiny little spheres.

Observations from this evening's stroll around the neighbourhood:

- main people seemingly failing to obey the "stay at home" / no unnecessary journeys were kids riding mopeds and motorbikes at great speed. Reckon there's not much to be done about this, doubt the police could catch them even if they had the resources to look for that sort of behaviour.
- on the point of speed, lots of drivers using the opportunity of fairly empty roads to drive well in excess of the 20 or 30 mph limits. I really hate speeding, particularly in residential areas. Just because the roads are quiet it's not a license to treat them like a race track!!!! Especially with young families out for a walk and people more likely to step into the road to maintain distance.
- most worrying, walking along a quiet road with a beautiful view over the valley we see a young couple sitting on a bench. As we approach a woman comes out of her house and shouts as loud as she can from the other side of the road at them that "old people use that bench" and to "fuck off back where you live"!!

Pretty disturbing to witness the last bit. The couple, or rather the woman at least, were visibly shaken as they walked away. Quite clearly didn't mean any harm and were doing nothing wrong whatsoever in my view.

[teestub]

The bar chart at the bottom shows 1500 new cases on 25/03.

Updated since I posted it 😄

[Oldmanmatt]

Anyone knowledgeable who'd care to comment on the Oxford study flagged up that more than half the UK population may already have had the virus without showing symptoms? (feel free to punter me if it's already been posted and i missed it...). Remotely possible or based on poor assumptions?

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-if-half-the-population-already-has-coronavirus-

Obviously, no clue.
Been debating it with Stevie Haston of all people on FB.

But this:

“ As of 9am on 24 March 2020, a total of 90,436 people have been tested, of which 82,359 were confirmed negative and 8,077 were confirmed positive. 422 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.”

From GOV.UK seems to mitigate against the supposition.

Because, were it correct, there should have been far more positive tests.
Unless, by some fluke, they tested everyone who definitely has it seriously and almost nobody who has it very mildly.

But, ultimately, we’re not going to know either way until it’s all but over for this season, surely. Everything else is a artefact of the model’s initial parameters, isn’t it?   

[tomtom]

Because testing varies so much from country to country - the best figures on the worldometer site imho are the deaths per million population...

Although some countries may be over keen to attribute CV19 for deaths (someone dies and is CV19 then it’s counted as CV19) such as Italy - and others less keen (Germany).

[petejh]

Anyone knowledgeable who'd care to comment on the Oxford study flagged up that more than half the UK population may already have had the virus without showing symptoms? (feel free to punter me if it's already been posted and i missed it...). Remotely possible or based on poor assumptions?

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-if-half-the-population-already-has-coronavirus-

Professor Neil Ferguson is knowledgeable.. (we're all following policy based on his group's estimates). I watched the footage of him giving evidence today to the science & technology select committee on global disease outbreaks. Well worth a watch for the current estimations of where we're at and where we're going.

At 26 minutes in he's asked a question about the Oxford paper (Gupta), and specifically its point that 50% of UK may have been infected. He replies he 'doesn't think that's consistent with the observed data'. and 'we're nowhere near the Gupta scenario'.

Footage here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000h37y/select-committees-live-global-disease-outbreak-committee

[SA Chris]

Have read a few articles, can’t seem to find them now. My takeaway was that the virus itself isn’t the issue, it’s  immune system going into overdrive after a slow response initially. This out of control inflammatory reaction precipitates the pneumonia and most serious symptoms.

Logically therefore, viral load would affect the body’s immune response. Equally, the treatment would vary according to the point at which it was caught- immunosuppressants would be needed in a late stage.

This is my understanding of what I read; I can’t vouch for the quality of the science or argument.

My take too. Based on the attached, the bod'ys immune system is weakened, making it vulnerable to bacterial attack. Of all the videos I've seen this explains it best, an idiots guide to CV-19

[gme]

Anyone knowledgeable who'd care to comment on the Oxford study flagged up that more than half the UK population may already have had the virus without showing symptoms? (feel free to punter me if it's already been posted and i missed it...). Remotely possible or based on poor assumptions?

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-if-half-the-population-already-has-coronavirus-

Obviously, no clue.
Been debating it with Stevie Haston of all people on FB.

But this:

“ As of 9am on 24 March 2020, a total of 90,436 people have been tested, of which 82,359 were confirmed negative and 8,077 were confirmed positive. 422 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.”

From GOV.UK seems to mitigate against the supposition.

Because, were it correct, there should have been far more positive tests.
Unless, by some fluke, they tested everyone who definitely has it seriously and almost nobody who has it very mildly.

But, ultimately, we’re not going to know either way until it’s all but over for this season, surely. Everything else is a artefact of the model’s initial parameters, isn’t it?

I am genuinely fucking clueless about this so science types feel free to laugh but is there a difference between being tested for having the virus and testing if you have previously had it.
This could be an explanation to the opposing ideas/ facts.

[Oldmanmatt]

Anyone knowledgeable who'd care to comment on the Oxford study flagged up that more than half the UK population may already have had the virus without showing symptoms? (feel free to punter me if it's already been posted and i missed it...). Remotely possible or based on poor assumptions?

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-if-half-the-population-already-has-coronavirus-

Obviously, no clue.
Been debating it with Stevie Haston of all people on FB.

But this:

“ As of 9am on 24 March 2020, a total of 90,436 people have been tested, of which 82,359 were confirmed negative and 8,077 were confirmed positive. 422 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.”

From GOV.UK seems to mitigate against the supposition.

Because, were it correct, there should have been far more positive tests.
Unless, by some fluke, they tested everyone who definitely has it seriously and almost nobody who has it very mildly.

But, ultimately, we’re not going to know either way until it’s all but over for this season, surely. Everything else is a artefact of the model’s initial parameters, isn’t it?

I am genuinely fucking clueless about this so science types feel free to laugh but is there a difference between being tested for having the virus and testing if you have previously had it.
This could be an explanation to the opposing ideas/ facts.

I expect there is a difference. But if it was so wide spread, why are so few infected now? Why are the most vulnerable only succumbing now etc etc? It’s supposed to be enormously infectious, so why are the hospitalised numbers climbing so steeply now, not two months ago?

Edit:
Equally clueless, genuine use of question marks. I’m trying to get my head around the idea. I just can’t make it add up.
Had this conversation last week at home, because my daughter had the symptoms for around three weeks over Xmas. None of the rest of us came down with anything, though.

[gme]

No idea as I am clueless about this kind of thing.
It does in part add up to why German, the country who has carried out by far the most testing, has a far lower death to infection ratio than the rest of the EU.
Most people are only testing those that present with symptoms.

[Oldmanmatt]

No idea as I am clueless about this kind of thing.
It does in part add up to why German, the country who has carried out by far the most testing, has a far lower death to infection ratio than the rest of the EU.
Most people are only testing those that present with symptoms.

But that’s it. They tested and found infected people. Only 20% of the people tested here, despite presenting symptom, actually had it.

Testing will eventually answer the conundrum, but I’d put money (a small wager, anyway) on Pete’s mentioned expert being right, or right-er at least.

[mrjonathanr]

WHO’s advice on this is pretty simple— test relentlessly, find infection, quarantine, trace contacts, test and quarantine and trace- endlessly. Everything else comes second, hand washing excepted.

So Germany, Singapore, S Korea- massive lockdowns may not be needed if enough testing tracing and quarantining is done from the off?

[TobyD]

Anyone knowledgeable who'd care to comment on the Oxford study flagged up that more than half the UK population may already have had the virus without showing symptoms? (feel free to punter me if it's already been posted and i missed it...). Remotely possible or based on poor assumptions?

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-if-half-the-population-already-has-coronavirus-

I don't know that much about the technical /statistical aspects of CV19 testing; however I am rather suspicious of the linked article, which is by Ross Clark, noted for being somewhat sceptical about climate change to put it mildly, and a rampant free market libertarian. The Spectator has published some absolutely appalling articles recently, one a few weeks ago trying to argue that we really shouldn't worry about coronavirus at all. It clearly has an overriding agenda towards a Trump style policy of screw the people who've got it, preserve economic advantage.

[chris j]

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-exposes-the-problems-and-pitfalls-of-modelling

This piece suggests the spectator article is just picking up on the most extreme scenario modelled from a selection of hypotheses, essentially playing with numbers to fit the death rates.

[Muenchener]

So Germany, Singapore, S Korea- massive lockdowns may not be needed if enough testing tracing and quarantining is done from the off?

(a) Germany is in massive lockdown, some states more than others. Bavaria declared a state of emergency on the 16th & lockdown on the 20th.

(b) anecdatally, before the lockdown an acquaintance of mine, who had a fever but no other relevant/suspect symptoms, spent a week unsuccessfully trying to get himself tested. I can't comment on the actual national testing statistics about which I know nothing.

Bavarian state government said yesterday full lockdown is neither socially nor economically sustainable for more than a few weeks. And by "economically" they were referring to supply chains for essentials breaking down, not the stock market. I still don't think this means I will be happily trundling off to Kalymnos in May.

[Stu Littlefair]

I’m not an expert but I think I know enough about stats and modelling to explain the Oxford paper.

Essentially they are pointing out that you get the same deaths in a population if 50 people have been infected and 1/10 of them die, or if 5000 people have been infected and 1/1000 of them die.

In the latter case though, the disease would have to have been spreading for longer and many of us would already unknowingly have caught it and recovered. The authors of this paper think covid-19 might be like this.

This is a valid possible scenario because, as gav pointed out, our testing to date only tells us if someone is ill right now. It doesn’t tell us if someone has been ill and recovers. This is changing, Countries like Singapore have started doing the second kind of test and we are about too. We will soon know if the “Oxford scenario” is true.

The big snag though is that the Oxford paper only looks at deaths, and not other data. Data on infections from countries that have tested heavily and situations like the Diamond princess where almost everyone was tested, don’t reveal large numbers of people carrying the disease without symptoms. There’s enough wiggle room that the Oxford study might be right, but it probably isn’t.

[tomtom]

Stu - the Korean data shows 25% of positive tested <25’s were asymptomatic.

[tomtom]

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-exposes-the-problems-and-pitfalls-of-modelling

This piece suggests the spectator article is just picking up on the most extreme scenario modelled from a selection of hypotheses, essentially playing with numbers to fit the death rates.

This is a good article. Written by someone who knows a bit about modelling and model sensitivity.

However - they give the imperial group an easy ride. It was their fuck up with the model parameterisation that sent us down the wrong route - followed by a mea culpa and a reversal in govt policy.

They nicely quote the late George box with ‘all models are wrong but some are useful’ but they fail to say that a model is only as good as the assumptions and parameters used in its operation... garbage in garbage out etc...

This is why 4-5 weeks ago (or whenever it was) the modelling should have been open to general scrutiny. The more eyes that see it the more likely it is to spot mistakes.

I’m now going to show my anti establishment colors and say typical Imperial...

[TobyD]

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-exposes-the-problems-and-pitfalls-of-modelling

This piece suggests the spectator article is just picking up on the most extreme scenario modelled from a selection of hypotheses, essentially playing with numbers to fit the death rates.

In my view the spectator should probably have been buycotted and taken off the shelf by retailers for some of the poisonous drivel it has published recently.
Until we were pretty deep in the shit it was heavily pushing the agenda that Cvirus was just some sort of snowflake fad, I've not looked in the last couple of weeks but I would think they've changed now. They continue to be unpleasantly 'sceptical' about climate change, which is actually just a euphemism for denial. I like some of their columnists and many right of centre publications but the spectator has sunk to a US shock jock level of political discourse.

[nai]

It's owned by the Barclays, who own the Telegraph, so wouldn't really be expecting them to come too far off their wing.

[SA Chris]

I've had a low level headache for about 4 days now, in spite of drinking a lot of water, exercising, eating well and sleeping more than usual. Not bad enough to need paracetamol. I wonder if it's the only symptom I'm showing, or if I'm paranoid.

[Offwidth]

It wasn't just The Spectator though, the FT and other serious news outlets were guilty as well, then various members of the public played chinese whispers on social media. The Oxford paper was published as a draft where in normal times it would have been much more carefully peer reviewed and edited before publication. Its 'conclusions' seem to contradict the best data. The news headlines unfairly emphasise one end of a range.  The paper to me illustrates the error bars when dealing with exponential pandemic growth modelling with an uncertain 'infection rate' and as such why testing is so important. I put 'infection rates' in quotes as they too are an average of a range but the models often won't deal with that.

Someone asked above about the influence of viral load, see the link below.... that's almost certainly what killed those young doctors in Wuhan, including the main whistle blower.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext

I agree with tomtom that the Imperial group have got an easy ride and the top government experts seemed to have been convinced by that group, when as top experts they should have been displaying more cautious scepticism.   The CSA now seems to agree with what various climbers who work with data have been saying on UKC all along:  the UK gap to Italy is not 4 weeks nor the revised 3 weeks but 2 weeks. We were most probably later applying social mobility restrictions than we should have been.

A lot of the government promises a week back on testing and PPE for medical staff are looking very dodgy as well. Its lovely to see half a million volunteers but they will need PPE and so far even some on the front line are still waiting.

Some journalistic analysis on Spain that supports the faster transmission rate (via a football match) :

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/spain-coronavirus-response-analysis

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/how-spain-sat-on-its-hands-as-coronavirus-took-hold
 
On being appropriately  'doomful' but pragmatically keen on surpressing social mobility as much as possible, the best evidence we have is the caution it leads to is what will keep more people alive.

[T_B]

I've had a low level headache for about 4 days now, in spite of drinking a lot of water, exercising, eating well and sleeping more than usual. Not bad enough to need paracetamol. I wonder if it's the only symptom I'm showing, or if I'm paranoid.

This was sent to a GP friend of a friend and her trust’s NHS staff this morning.

Virus Detection:

The simplest way to distinguish Coronavirus from a Common Cold is that the COVID-19 infection does not cause a cold nose or cough with cold, but it does create a dry and rough cough.

The virus is typically first installed in the throat causing inflammation and a feeling of dryness. This symptom can last between 3 and 4 days.
The virus typically then travels through the moisture present in the airways, goes down to the trachea and installs in the lungs, causing pneumonia that lasts about 5 or 6 days.

Pneumonia manifests with a high fever and difficulty breathing. The Common Cold is not accompanied, but there may be a choking sensation. In this case, the doctor should be called immediately.

Experts suggest doing this simple verification every morning: Breathe in deeply and hold your breath for 10 seconds. If this can be done without coughing, without difficulty, this shows that there is no fibrosis in the lungs, indicating the absence of infection. It is recommended to do this control every morning to help detect infection.

[James Malloch]

I've had a low level headache for about 4 days now, in spite of drinking a lot of water, exercising, eating well and sleeping more than usual. Not bad enough to need paracetamol. I wonder if it's the only symptom I'm showing, or if I'm paranoid.

This was sent to a GP friend of a friend and her trust’s NHS staff this morning.

Virus Detection:

The simplest way to distinguish Coronavirus from a Common Cold is that the COVID-19 infection does not cause a cold nose or cough with cold, but it does create a dry and rough cough.

The virus is typically first installed in the throat causing inflammation and a feeling of dryness. This symptom can last between 3 and 4 days.
The virus typically then travels through the moisture present in the airways, goes down to the trachea and installs in the lungs, causing pneumonia that lasts about 5 or 6 days.

Pneumonia manifests with a high fever and difficulty breathing. The Common Cold is not accompanied, but there may be a choking sensation. In this case, the doctor should be called immediately.

Experts suggest doing this simple verification every morning: Breathe in deeply and hold your breath for 10 seconds. If this can be done without coughing, without difficulty, this shows that there is no fibrosis in the lungs, indicating the absence of infection. It is recommended to do this control every morning to help detect infection.

The 10s one is interesting, I was listening to that being rebutted on the news the other day. However it may have been saying that if you can hold your breath for 10s then you don’t have CV. Which is different from saying it indicates an absence of infection.

Edit - fact-checked on here: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-myths-debunking-holding-breath-10-seconds-trnd/index.html

[tomtom]

Chris. I was like this last week - as was MrsTT. We both put it down to stress and bad sleep. And the feedback of bad sleep leading to more stress to bad sleep etc etc..

I’m actually far less fraught this week now things are fairly locked down and work is clearly closed until at least sept. I know where I stand a bit more etx...

MrsTT has had persistent low level sore throat for the last week and keeps worrying. The lad has a very infrequent cough (what 3 year old doesn’t!). None of us have had temps. So I think we’ve all been fine/normal.

Those in our road who think they’ve all had it all feel really whacked out. Eg. The marathon runner inmentioned in an earlier lost has just gone in the car to the butchers (1/2 mile away) as he’s still too done in to go far. Our normally quite lively neighbours next door have been completely quiet through the walls since they went into isolation. Eg. I think Even when mild it whacks you out. But that’s just my view. Only the antibody testing will reveal all (probably)