[Nigel]

Interesting theory on the sudden election u-turn:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/anthony-barnet/why-is-she-frit

Definitely a possibility. As it says there, the actual "reasons" May gave were ludicrous! Thanks for link to that site btw, never seen it. Don't have a view on rest of content yet but have read one other article which makes me think it might be a good one: https://www.opendemocracy.net/neweconomics/magic-money-tree-dont-let-politicians-tell-otherwise/ I scream this at the telly every time I hear a Tory say "where's the money coming from?"! It comes from a spreadsheet at the Bank of England. The function of taxation is not to raise revenues for spending and the fact that politicians continually get away with this lie is a scandal. Along with other nonsense such as "leaving debt for our children's generation". In and of itself government debt (in your own currency) is neither here nor there, and running a deficit can be a good thing. Politicians either don't know that (possible when you hear them) or don't mention it as it undermines their ideology.

Good article from Gary Younge today in Guardian, calling out the Corbyn "unelectable" nonsense meme. Mind you its easier to say so in hindsight. Although plenty of people, including on here, have believed it for quite a while: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/06/jeremy-corbyn-unelectable-political-climate

[sdm]

Can't deny that there is apparent value in betting against Tories (or at least the majority) based on the polls. I think you can back a minority Tory govt at about 5/1 or something which is probably a decent bet.


I just think that based on last election, it looked close but somehow a load of Shy Tories seemed to be out there that weren't accounted for. I think as a rule that polls overly skew towards the lefty/liberal end, and undercount the rightward-leaning options.


I mean, who in their right mind (no pun intended) would want to openly admit they are a Tory?

Brexit went all the way up to 13/1 shortly before Sunderland declared. Earlier on in the day, it was something like 3/1.

With the right timing, you could have retired off the winnings if brexit occurred and still broken even if it had come up remain.

I foolishly didn't make any bets despite predicting the odds would shift rapidly as the referendum approached.

I haven't learned my lesson either, should probably have guessed the odds would get closer as we approached this election.

Hindsight, eh?

[jfdm]

10,000 at Gateshead, quite a turn out.
Fucking amazing

[Oldmanmatt]

All a waste of time, as Abbott seems hell bent on sabotaging his chances.
And this despite the Tories fielding a part trained, flatulent Orangutan called BoJo...


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[jfdm]

All a waste of time, as Abbott seems hell bent on sabotaging his chances.
And this despite the Tories fielding a part trained, flatulent Orangutan called BoJo...


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I am pretty sure you are right, but still feel that there will be shocks for lab and Cons on Thursday. However it doesn't seem like a waste of time for the people in Gateshead. That is some political gathering.
Abbott who, I think you mean Diane rather than Russ. Yep shes a walking disaster. What about our great chancellor "safe hands" phammond, where did he go. Did May send him to the bank of England with his abacus to count up money in the vaults for being a naughty boy. Could be chilaxing in some tax haven or off caravaning with David "the caravan" Cameron.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron-spends-25000-posh-10328231

[dave]

I hope everyone has seen this.

[mrjonathanr]

  That sums things up rather nicely.

[bigtuboflard]

Thank god for cassetteboy, I was about to vote for Greg Knight.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/Gt7lWRtfve8

[Will Hunt]

Awfully decent of his dad to lend him a suit jacket.

[Oldmanmatt]

Awfully decent of his dad to lend him a suit jacket.

I suspect he took it off the body, before they sealed the coffin...

[tommytwotone]

Can't deny that there is apparent value in betting against Tories (or at least the majority) based on the polls. I think you can back a minority Tory govt at about 5/1 or something which is probably a decent bet.


I just think that based on last election, it looked close but somehow a load of Shy Tories seemed to be out there that weren't accounted for. I think as a rule that polls overly skew towards the lefty/liberal end, and undercount the rightward-leaning options.


I mean, who in their right mind (no pun intended) would want to openly admit they are a Tory?

Brexit went all the way up to 13/1 shortly before Sunderland declared. Earlier on in the day, it was something like 3/1.

With the right timing, you could have retired off the winnings if brexit occurred and still broken even if it had come up remain.

I foolishly didn't make any bets despite predicting the odds would shift rapidly as the referendum approached.

I haven't learned my lesson either, should probably have guessed the odds would get closer as we approached this election.

Hindsight, eh?

As we used to say at [name redacted - my previous employer (and large UK bookies)], retrospective betting is the most popular form!


I was talking to my other half about this theoretical scenario last night, which I think is eminently possible (and also terrifying at the same time)...I'm calling this now so I can say "I told you so" later:

• Tories win (sizeable lead / slim majority)
• "Big beasts" rumbling about Maybot's calling of election, not pushing home advantage
• Maybot resigns / gets the boot
• BoJo PM

So we'll have been round in a massive circle, to end up with a Tory govt with a similar sized majority, and an unelected PM.

Then of course, the Brexit omnishambles begins...

[tomtom]

Would BJ be any worse than Maybot? I know it's a race to the bottom but...

[dave]

Who'd have thought it would be possible to look back on Cameron and think "good times"?

[nai]

Would BJ be any worse than Maybot? I know it's a race to the bottom but...

both lapdogs who will toe whichever line they need to win popularity, as bad as each other.
On the other hand you have JC who is pushing for what he believes, there's the real strong and stable. I really am considering voting Labour although I can't see it making much difference in my constituency.

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[Johnny Brown]

Who'd have thought it would be possible to look back on Cameron and think "good times"?

Not me. Think Cameron, think "This is all your fault, dickhead".

[dave]

Obvs but the point is although not great at the time things were much better in 2010-2015 than they are now and then they will be if the tories get in again.

[nai]

That was under the coalition, look what happened when they regained full control

[tommytwotone]

Would BJ be any worse than Maybot? I know it's a race to the bottom but...

I strongly suspect that under the Billy Bunter /Bunny Corcoran #massivelegend exterior is a deeply, deeply unpleasant human being.

[dave]

That was under the coalition, look what happened when they regained full control

Exactly - but that was all the LibDem's fault right?

BJ - like you say, under the wafer thin panel show buffoon exterior is as prize an example of a fuck-everyone-else self-serving ultimate Tory as you're likely to find. #CUNT

[Oldmanmatt]

Too late?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/diane-abbott-labour-replaced-sacked-lyn-brown-general-election-2017-jeremy-corbyn-a7776491.html


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[Yossarian]

The thing that I find most infuriating about Boris (who I loathe more and more every day, not least because he by far the most effective of the brexit* liars) is that, it wasn't that long ago that he was a fairly ineffectual journalist, editor of the Spectator, etc, without much of a profile at all.

And then a supposedly liberal / satirical / anti establishment TV show - HIGNFY - repeatedly gave him a platform for him to perfect his jolly buffoon performance and allowed him to become so popular.

There are countless descriptions of him, as mayor, behaving extremely aggressively and unpleasantly behind closed doors. That Eddie Mair interview (you're not a very nice man, etc) would've destroyed a lot of lesser performers, but to him it was like water off a ducks back.

* I was honestly optimistic that, whilst brexit was the wrong decision, that it could'be been handled in a non-disastrous way. But the degree that May / Hill / Timothy have focused on appealing almost exclusively to UKIP grannies is totally infuriating.

[galpinos]

10,000 at Gateshead, quite a turn out.
Fucking amazing

I'm a bit concerned that it's all a bit too "Michael Foot in 1983", massive turn out at rallies but poor performance at the polls. There is a chance that the increase in Labour support is in current Labour strong seats and is unfortunately wasted, if the support isn't in the right seats, it doesn't matter. If only we'd had a referendum on electoral reform......

Despite everything that has gone on, there are still a depressing number of people in my office still spouting the "You can't trust Corbyn with the economy/He's a terrorist sympathiser/he would nuke the Russians" style phrases whilst still thinking May is a strong and stable modern Thatcher.

[tommytwotone]

I also read a very depressing article about the chronic over-reading of younger voters (and therefore Labour) / under-estimation of older voters built into the assumptions underlying both polls.


As Yossarian said, the thousands that turn out for the rallies are the converted, and will be far, far outweighed by the shy Tories / swivel-eyed loonies / turkeys voting for Christmas.


I am happy to be disappointed but I am resolutely not getting my hopes up.

[dave]

Don't forget most Tory voters aren't allowed out of the retirement home to attend rallies.

[Yossarian]

As Yossarian said, the thousands that turn out for the rallies are the converted, and will be far, far outweighed by the shy Tories / swivel-eyed loonies / turkeys voting for Christmas.

I am happy to be disappointed but I am resolutely not getting my hopes up.

That was Galpinos, but I agree. John Prescott pointed out how many thousands more people are out at Corbyn's rallies than there were in 1997. But they won 418 seats not by appealing to the already highly engaged, but to the not particularly bothered either way middle.

This was an interesting article in the Independent the other day - http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-is-a-right-wing-blairite-sellout-who-offers-no-alternative-to-the-tories-a7770831.html

Glancing at my Twitter feed this morning, it has been pointed out a few times that, despite the huge social media noise about the (truly) atrocious Tory campaign, their support has remained fairly consistent, and Labour's off-and-on (but on balance, pretty reasonable) campaign has probably had little effect in that their increasing support is probably down to angry core voters relenting to back the team, not the captain.