Right, election, why do so many people seem to think Labour is a shoe-in? The poling looks closer than I would like to take that bet.
Ok, Labour is aggregating around 44%, Cons 22 ish, but Reform are polling at 11+. A slight upset in Labour’s run and we could be looking at a Con/Reform coalition. Is that too far fetched? Really?
This website has seemed pretty good to me in the past. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
It is hard to get to a Con/Reform coalition from their seat predictions. It is hard for thinly spread votes to get converted into seats. UKIP got no seats in FPTP elections despite sizeable vote share.
I hadn’t considered it in those terms, it’s a good point.
However, lingering doubt, right wing voters are no dumber than progressives, despite appearances. They’ve seen the effect in recent elections of the split and it’s not local anymore. Perhaps any blue is better than even a hint of pink to them and come the day, they’ll plump for the darker shade?
Perhaps they'll pick up one somewhere, but there's not a hope in hell Reform will win enough seats to be coalition partners. As you hint, much more important is where and how they split votes. I'm sure that in some "Red Wall" seats they'll pick up some disaffected former Labour voters who went Tory in 2019. But evidence from by-elections such as Blackpool South, a classic red wall/leave voting constituency, suggest they are cannibalising much more of the Tory vote than Labour. Even so, in Blackpool, the combined Tory/Reform still lost very heavily to Labour. Obviously by-elections are different etc. etc.
Reform not helped by Farage's decision today not to run (and to basically bugger off to America).
Will the Greens retain Brighton Pavilion now Caroline Lucas is stepping down, and can they take Bristol Central?
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