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The range of views and policies considered reasonable and acceptable by the public.
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As I've said before, I don't think the Tories are especially inept at implementing Tory policies. Our problems are those policies. We'll have the same problems whichever Party implements them. I hope I'm wrong.
I think that in (what feels like) the last 12000 years of government, the tories have been successful in moving the Overton window a long way right. Therefore I think a pragmatic approach to avoid being labelled another loopy radical like Corbyn is to start centrist, then move left over years of successful government.
I hope they do something on Europe as well as climate, customs union? Prob not for manifesto though, too spicy.
Wonder if they are still nervous on climate after ulez stuff in the by-election?
At the risk of sounding stupid, what do you mean by the tories success at moving the Overton window a long way right?
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« Last post by andy popp on Today at 07:40:15 pm »
Right, election, why do so many people seem to think Labour is a shoe-in? The poling looks closer than I would like to take that bet.
Ok, Labour is aggregating around 44%, Cons 22 ish, but Reform are polling at 11+. A slight upset in Labour’s run and we could be looking at a Con/Reform coalition. Is that too far fetched? Really?
This website has seemed pretty good to me in the past. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
It is hard to get to a Con/Reform coalition from their seat predictions. It is hard for thinly spread votes to get converted into seats. UKIP got no seats in FPTP elections despite sizeable vote share.
I hadn’t considered it in those terms, it’s a good point.
However, lingering doubt, right wing voters are no dumber than progressives, despite appearances. They’ve seen the effect in recent elections of the split and it’s not local anymore. Perhaps any blue is better than even a hint of pink to them and come the day, they’ll plump for the darker shade?
Perhaps they'll pick up one somewhere, but there's not a hope in hell Reform will win enough seats to be coalition partners. As you hint, much more important is where and how they split votes. I'm sure that in some "Red Wall" seats they'll pick up some disaffected former Labour voters who went Tory in 2019. But evidence from by-elections such as Blackpool South, a classic red wall/leave voting constituency, suggest they are cannibalising much more of the Tory vote than Labour. Even so, in Blackpool, the combined Tory/Reform still lost very heavily to Labour. Obviously by-elections are different etc. etc. Reform not helped by Farage's decision today not to run (and to basically bugger off to America). Will the Greens retain Brighton Pavilion now Caroline Lucas is stepping down, and can they take Bristol Central?
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« Last post by Bradders on Today at 07:30:52 pm »
Lovely video, man psyched to climb a hard rock in the hills on his own with just his video camera for company. Feels more real to me than seeing the group sessions with loads of pads and shouting that seems to happen on lots of hard boulders.
Yeah, flipping loved that.
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« Last post by teestub on Today at 07:24:15 pm »
As I've said before, I don't think the Tories are especially inept at implementing Tory policies. Our problems are those policies. We'll have the same problems whichever Party implements them. I hope I'm wrong.
I think that in (what feels like) the last 12000 years of government, the tories have been successful in moving the Overton window a long way right. Therefore I think a pragmatic approach to avoid being labelled another loopy radical like Corbyn is to start centrist, then move left over years of successful government. I hope they do something on Europe as well as climate, customs union? Prob not for manifesto though, too spicy. Wonder if they are still nervous on climate after ulez stuff in the by-election?
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« Last post by BenjyW on Today at 06:15:09 pm »
The usual DMac "progressing climbing / recovering from injury is hard but actually totally fine if you're still young / lean / fit / absolutely meticulous with diet / training / injury management etc" video, BUT at timestamp 10:42 is an absolute Quality looking boulder problem:
https://youtu.be/1IiPM3u9YTY?si=J9zl37sDwtDizeZ8&t=642
It's excellent boulder, cracking find by Eddie. UKC link here:https://www.ukclimbing.com/logbook/crags/clach_na_h-ulaidh_the_treasure_trove-31934/
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« Last post by sxrxg on Today at 06:02:14 pm »
Lovely video, man psyched to climb a hard rock in the hills on his own with just his video camera for company. Feels more real to me than seeing the group sessions with loads of pads and shouting that seems to happen on lots of hard boulders.
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« Last post by Wellsy on Today at 05:32:27 pm »
Bosinator here to send your new bloc
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« Last post by Oldmanmatt on Today at 05:10:28 pm »
Right, election, why do so many people seem to think Labour is a shoe-in? The poling looks closer than I would like to take that bet.
Ok, Labour is aggregating around 44%, Cons 22 ish, but Reform are polling at 11+. A slight upset in Labour’s run and we could be looking at a Con/Reform coalition. Is that too far fetched? Really?
This website has seemed pretty good to me in the past. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
It is hard to get to a Con/Reform coalition from their seat predictions. It is hard for thinly spread votes to get converted into seats. UKIP got no seats in FPTP elections despite sizeable vote share.
I hadn’t considered it in those terms, it’s a good point. However, lingering doubt, right wing voters are no dumber than progressives, despite appearances. They’ve seen the effect in recent elections of the split and it’s not local anymore. Perhaps any blue is better than even a hint of pink to them and come the day, they’ll plump for the darker shade? Again, the actual split between right and left looks as it always does, if for once, the right looks more divided than the left. 🤷🏻♂️
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« Last post by stone on Today at 04:51:50 pm »
Right, election, why do so many people seem to think Labour is a shoe-in? The poling looks closer than I would like to take that bet.
Ok, Labour is aggregating around 44%, Cons 22 ish, but Reform are polling at 11+. A slight upset in Labour’s run and we could be looking at a Con/Reform coalition. Is that too far fetched? Really?
This website has seemed pretty good to me in the past. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.htmlIt is hard to get to a Con/Reform coalition from their seat predictions. It is hard for thinly spread votes to get converted into seats. UKIP got no seats in FPTP elections despite sizeable vote share.
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