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« Last post by mrjonathanr on May 28, 2024, 12:26:31 pm »
I've said it before on here, but to me, the number one problem for why so many of the country are living miserable lives, is the cost of housing. And that the government can start doing something about by simply getting out of the way. ie: Essentially make a bonfire out of most of the planning regulations in this country. You can't build anything anywhere in the UK. Environmentalism has been weaponised by every NIMBY out there, to block anything being built. That needs to end.
This is quite a surprising post to read Nemo. Has someone in Tufton Street hijacked your account? The reason housing is so problematical has very little to do with restrictive planning. No doubt some improvements should be made, but a bonfire of the green belt will do nothing to ameliorate the problem. Namely, asset prices. This isn’t being driven by a shortage of supply, but by an excess of money driving asset values up and out of reach of what used to be called the working classes. The middle classes will be similarly impoverished in a generation. Thatcher’s ’home owning revolution’ has been great for foreign owned capital owning UK homes. Bob and Brenda in Birmingham, not so much. You are talking about tinkering with symptoms, not causes. Primary steps to address this: 1 Seriously high levels of tax on the very rich whose wealth has grown exponentially in the last decade are needed. Billionaires can leave, but their fixed assets can’t. 2 Legislate against housing being owned by funds rather than individuals or UK owned business. Secondary steps: 3 Rebuild significant social housing stock. 4 Fix social care. Ideally, bring it back into the NHS, or set up a dedicated national body rather than the fragmented current state of affairs. 5 Raise IHT thresholds (eg £1m) so that ordinary householders can keep their homes. Currently, once forced to sell they are just another spiralling asset increasingly out of the reach of ordinary people. 6 Rigorously enforce high levels of IHT compliance above the threshold. 7 Introduce fair rent legislation. 8 Increase house building, especially on brownfield sites. Without 1 and 2 we are all going to be renting in a generation or two.
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« Last post by shark on May 28, 2024, 12:23:20 pm »
Wow. What a relief
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« Last post by sherlock on May 28, 2024, 12:04:49 pm »
In mid March a routine visit to my GP quickly led to a diagnosis of prostate cancer. Various MRIs and a bone scan later I'm told that the cancer cells they tested are grade 1. Low volume and slow moving. Not quite out of the woods yet but the news couldn't be much better.
I was envisaging years of my skeletal self haunting hospital corridors attended by a drip ....that won't be happening just yet... Summer trips to see favourite bands in Liverpool & Edinburgh still on and more importantly Tunnel booked for autumn trip to Czech Republic and German sandstone!
As a bonus the scans revealed that my MS has stalled and no further degeneration in brain.
Truly, life couldn't be much sweeter right now.
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« Last post by stone on May 28, 2024, 11:41:03 am »
I’d also love to see your workings/evidence for how a mature scheme with liabilities in payment can earn yields of 3.5% above inflation, particularly in the current economic/regulatory environment.
I was basing it partly on reading this https://portfoliocharts.com/2024/04/01/what-global-withdrawal-rates-teach-us-about-ideal-retirement-portfolios/and partly on the Wellcome Trust portfolio performance and future planning https://wellcome.org/reports/wellcome-annual-reportI'm interested in your perspective on all of this since you give the impression of being a lot more knowledgable than me!
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« Last post by Oldmanmatt on May 28, 2024, 11:12:49 am »
Yes, it’s not the optimistic climate that the media portray.
I have had two false starts over the last 18 months. One of which I had a signed contract for, passed my start date (without getting instruction on where to attend on that date, even though I had been promised the same on on the Friday before my Monday start) only to be told on the Tuesday afternoon that it was all postponed. Start rearranged for September (last), only to be told the whole project was to be kicked in to a September spending review, mid June. Each delay, ultimately, down to Covid, as rates surged and Gov departments retreated to home working again or issues around “isolation prior to deployment” became too tricky for Civvie contractors.
It’s been far more stressful and financially difficult than that sounds, as I had to withdraw from my other income source, prior to the first start date and have basically been unemployed for 12 months.
Our business (the climbing gym) has been massively impacted by it all. Our biggest income stream had always been schools, youth groups, clubs and parties (not climbers, there aren’t enough of us. Those kids parties you hate so much, subsidise your training). That’s only now and slowly, beginning to recover and we’ve had to cover shortfalls from the little we’d put away for a rainy day (actually it’s quite damp, really. Bloke down the road is building a big boat in his garden. I think his name is Noah, or similar).
Almost all the Government “support” went to Landlord and Utility companies and, since neither of us had ever drawn a wage, we couldn’t furlough ourselves (actually, we never even took a dividend. Still the only money we take out is “loan repayment” on our original investment and we haven’t been able to do that since Feb ‘20).
Basically, life sucks in a great many ways and Covid can do one (with an exceptionally large, spiky, dildo, coated in chilli). My patience with anti-vax morons and idiots that cry over facemasks and social distancing, is at the point where I would like to see the same dildos deployed in those quarters, too.
Add to that the more “Brexity” shite and it’s even more grating. Under the circumstances, running our van (the only thing all six of us can travel in together) is all but impossible. Even a half hour trip up to the Moors, to climb or whatever, is a once a month luxury now (we can’t budget more than £25/30 a week for fuel. Last Friday, £25 bought me 16ltrs of fuel).
As for shopping for a family of six, where the “children” are now almost as big as I am, wear adult clothes and shoes and eat adult portions? Fuck my life!
To be clear, prior to the Pandemic, we were secure, not flush, but pretty comfortable. The business gave some extras, it wasn’t essential. We’ve gone from ok, to unable to cover basic needs, even though our income hasn’t significantly diminished.
Both of us have managed to secure new employment and we both started this month, so, in theory, next month should be better. That hasn’t been as easy as it sounds, of course and I can strongly sympathise with Toby. This isn’t a sellers market, regardless of the hype in the Press. We’re both lucky to have unique skill sets, that by chance, play well into the current state of the world (which seems pretty wild and not simply because of Pandemics and Brexit. They just seem to compounding negatives for the UK. We as a nation, have shit timing).
Ok. Bit of a rant. But I’ve been sitting on it without being able to vent for months (and it feels like the above mentioned dildo).
I am certain, that all around me, people are more bad tempered, less tolerant and generally unhappy. Everyone I speak to, is struggling financially. I know many people who have lost jobs, though most seem to have found alternatives, if “lower” than their expectations. Quite a few of my friends have taken contracts in the Middle East, this year, to get away from their woes here (all Engineers).
Off the exact current topic, but scrolled back too far and stumbled on my post of Nov 21, which seems like yesterday. I’d forgotten how low I’d got. Covid took more of a toll on me than it did my business (the climbing wall) and I have never once tested positive for the damn thing, nor been ill in anyway (despite at one point caring for the other five members of my family all positive and quite ill). A few months after this post, Covid swept through the ship I was on, confining the crew one by one to their cabins as they succumbed and at one point felling a woman I’d been dancing with (Patrick Swayze, very close, in arms style) 12 hours before she started showing symptoms. And, bugger me if I didn’t end up taking a contract in the Middle East too, all of my friends are still here to boot. As you were.
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« Last post by Stabbsy on May 28, 2024, 10:45:22 am »
That’s certainly one perspective, but IMO it’s a simplistic one that ignores a lot of the nuances around the way that the relationship between scheme, trustees and sponsors work in practice. Needless to say, I disagree with your viewpoint.
I’d also love to see your workings/evidence for how a mature scheme with liabilities in payment can earn yields of 3.5% above inflation, particularly in the current economic/regulatory environment.
I’ll try and find some more time for a more reasoned response later, but your argument of earning the yields required is contradictory to your restriction on investment freedoms that you want to put in place.
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« Last post by SA Chris on May 28, 2024, 10:37:40 am »
P.S. Duncan, I'm pretty sure there's a good selection of Exmoor climbing in one of the South West Climbs volumes....
Plus some of the excellent looking beach bouldering Granticus et al have developed.
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Qu'est ce que c'est...Club Might have missed a week as was in Verdon - think I did a bit of moaning about my hip and shoulder and some F6c laps - that'll sort me right out for a week of multipitch with the Energizer Bunny.... Ha! M: First day in the Verdon opted for a F6a+ Les Deux Doigts dans le Nez straight off Barre de l'Escalès - Great route, brilliant climbing, in an awesome position. Few logistical snafoos tho ("take" sounds a lot like "safe" from 30m below - could have ended badly if I'd not been over cautious!)... Ended up making a schoolboy error on the last pitch and ending up on a F6c+ (F7a at least!), neither of us expected that so some swearing and lobs ensued (think a bit of wee came out when I first dropped off and bounced 10-15ft on rope stretch over the void!)... Good intro! T: Went up to Crete des Vernis to do Vernis, Vidi, Vici a F6b that had been recommended by a mate - set off too late, got lost , walked to 1.5hrs then realised we'd be finishing the 10-12pitches in the dark so opted to go single pitch climbing... Got lost finding the crag (Felines - parked in the wrong place!). Ended up at the base of L'arête de la Patte de Chèvre a 7 pitch F5+ - wasn't either of us's plan but it was getting late so opted to do it and work on our multipitch skills (calls, ropework etc.) Was actually a load of fun and we wizzed up it! W: Headed to Falaise de l'Imbut to do Liberté Surveillée (a great looking F6b+) but on the walk down to the Ab ran into a number of other parties (at least one group of 3!) and although the weather was good there was a fierce wind which made for freezing temps... EB made the call to bail and we went back to Crete des Vernis for Vernis, Vidi, Vici as we knew the way now... Amazing day out! 12 ace pitches, well bolted, a bit of choss but on the whole all superb... Topped out in just under 5hrs, guess our "training" day helped! Psyched.... T: Rest/Work day - went for a walk... Day was marred by realising we'd actually been robbed the day before! A sizeable chunk of cash taken from a wallet in the glovebox of the car... Seems it's a thing! No cards taken and no windows smashed but they seem to have a keyless way into Citroen C3's and the like! Be careful! F: Back to Barre de l'Escalès this time for the ace looking Ritmo Jazz F6c - Not what I was expecting, felt super spooked at the top so opted to just go and hope it go better as the route progressed - it didn't! Felt like was moving badly, scared and overgripping! Managed to pierce my LH index finger on a F6b+ pitch and ended up pissing blood all over the route and sliding off a hold  ... Final F6c pitch had a tricky to read boulder problem that EB did with a huge dyno to the left hand (the dodgy shoulder!)... I stupidly opted for their beta and missed the hold. Ended up finding a much better way, note to self "don't take beta from the EB!".... Felt pretty down tbh. Topped out just before the rain tho which was nice! Went to Felines in the afternoon after paying our visit to the Gendarmes (for insurance purposes and to practice my French), couldn't be arsed to climb tho... S: Planned to go back to Falaise de l'Imbut but after much soul searching I had to tell EB that I couldn't face it! The thought of abbing into the void filled me with such dread I couldn't bring myself to even think about it! Literally thought I was losing it! Decided to go for a walk then go back to Felines... Wandered to Couloir Samson and started to feel worse and worse - finally realising that the knot in my stomach wasn't just fear but that I was actually feeling sick! Phew! Went to Felines, tied in, did a F6a+ and it confirmed my suspicions - couldn't pull for toffee! Shaky, off balance, bleeding finger - pretty glad I didn't ab into a committing F6b+ (or the F6c+ we'd been eyeing up!)... EB had a good day onsighting tho and I dutifully belayed as it was their birthday, between bouts of lying down! S: Full blown summat - felt like shit! Wasn't much fun to be around! EB wanted to climb - I just wanted to sleep! Ended up at Saint Jeannet on the way back to the airport and belayed EB on a few routes as I felt guilty... Think they had fun! Trip of two halves really - the run up wasn't great but the injuries I managed to pick up in the previous few weeks didn't bother me at all! Great! Wasn't as fit as hoped but felt like it was coming back, then floored by mystery virus (could be Covid I guess?!?!)... To be honest I'm kinda relieved to be actually feeling ill as really just thought I'd lost my bottle for a bit! Au revoir Verdon, je reviendrai!
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« Last post by stone on May 28, 2024, 10:14:18 am »
Yes I think the BOE should have leaned very heavily on the Pension Regulator and anyway the Pension Regulator should have themselves stopped this.
Firms with Defined Benefit Schemes wanted the swaps not to serve those on the pension schemes but to make their owe company accounts look rosier to the firms' shareholders and creditors. The accounting rules mean that company accounts need to have the Defined Benefit Scheme as a liability valued as though it were a series of gilts able to fund those future pensions. So when interest rates are very low, a tiny further fall in gilt yields results in a huge increase in that notional present value of the pension fund liability (even though it has no material effect on whether the pensions can be paid by a sensibly managed fund).
If the sponsors wanted their accounts to be hedged against that, that is something they should be paying for, not something the pensioners on their scheme should be exposed to. They could for instance have hedged using options instead of swaps. Then there would have been no risk of calamity and merely an ongoing cost drag to the sponsoring firm.
Stepping back, the most sensible (IMO) way to avoid all the mess would be to change the accounting rules such that defined benefit pension liabilities on company accounts instead got a notional present value based on a sensible conservative view of what a well managed scheme yields. So say 3.5%/year over inflation.
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« Last post by Fiend on May 28, 2024, 10:12:16 am »
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