It does seem to be popping up in a few more places. I'm starting to get less psyched to get on a plane to Turkey (work trip) in the near future. 500k is a grim figure, 1/140(!). Fingers crossed eh?
Half expecting to be stuck in Glasgow with grounded flights and halted trains in three weeks time...
Still - concerning times when the leaked UK govt worst case data suggests 500k people could die in the UK alone...
Half expecting to be stuck in Glasgow with grounded flights and halted trains in three weeks time...
Plenty of time to get to dumby then. Look on the bright side. Also coronavirus is no match for the plague infested broken glass at dumby so it may be the safest place in the country.
Still - concerning times when the leaked UK govt worst case data suggests 500k people could die in the UK alone...
Just had a quick google of this and the first thing I clicked on was this; https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-worst-case-scenario-government-document-a4371726.html%3famp
Hardly a trustworthy news source as I don’t believe a word the sun prints.
Looking down the search page only the shitty papers like the express, the mirror, the sun etc are running stories with that sort of data. So probably just trying to sell papers/click bait.
I’m in Glasgow, for the next 3 weeks, busy at the academy and not paying attention...
Mrs OMM texted me an hour ago, because my eldest son’s football training has been cancelled. One of the lads on his team had just returned from a ski trip in Italy and three of the kids had become ill on the journey back. They were in quarantine (might still be).
By the time I saw the text and checked the story on Devon live, theschool announced the kids had tested negative.
Frankly, that all seems a bit quick (I thought incubation was estimated at twi weeks and the test results seem pdq.).
But, Ican see panic coming soon. Half expecting to be stuck in Glasgow with grounded flights and halted trains in three weeks time...
I’m in Glasgow, for the next 3 weeks, busy at the academy and not paying attention...
Mrs OMM texted me an hour ago, because my eldest son’s football training has been cancelled. One of the lads on his team had just returned from a ski trip in Italy and three of the kids had become ill on the journey back. They were in quarantine (might still be).
By the time I saw the text and checked the story on Devon live, theschool announced the kids had tested negative.
Frankly, that all seems a bit quick (I thought incubation was estimated at twi weeks and the test results seem pdq.).
But, Ican see panic coming soon. Half expecting to be stuck in Glasgow with grounded flights and halted trains in three weeks time...
You at both TCAs? Won't be down this week (mildly tweaked my shoulder on a pink yesterday, noticed a little crunch at the time but not much, fingerboarding felt fine). This morning it was a bit twingey, so I'll just stay off it for a bit.
Republicans are missing a trick and the Conservatives ought to be throwing everything we've got at it. If it's mainly the elderly that die, just think what 500k fewer Conservative voters would mean for them!A mass outbreak could be good news for fit and healthy millenials hoping to get on the property ladder...
Yes it's spreading fast, but my reading of it is that the mortality rate is higher than average from "normal" flu etc, but that it's only the young / old / vulnerable that are at risk.
Republicans are missing a trick and the Conservatives ought to be throwing everything we've got at it. If it's mainly the elderly that die, just think what 500k fewer Conservative voters would mean for them!A mass outbreak could be good news for fit and healthy millenials hoping to get on the property ladder...
I started wondering last night whether booking a week in Font in September was a good idea or not. Not sure whether BMC insurance would cover cancellation if it was necessary.
Well obviously nobody has ever been financially crippled by having a holiday cancelled. My concern is that it would be very very disappointing. Stoicism aside, I prefer to avoid disappointment if at all possible. And I have a duty to protect the baby and 3 year old that I would be travelling with from coming to harm. Given that infectious diseases normally kill the very young and the old in greater numbers, I don't think it's an unreasonable concern to have or have had.
I'm struggling to remember my Exodus now. We've had the plague of locusts in east Africa, the storms in the midlands, now it's pestilence. Are we on boils or frogs next?
And for the prospects of whatever Democrat is facing Trump in November.
In a press conference in Washington, the US president said the danger to Americans “remains very low” and predicted that the number of cases diagnosed in the country, currently on 15, could fall to zero in a “few days”.
“We have had tremendous success, tremendous success, beyond what people would have thought.
Whatever happens, we’re totally prepared,:-\ :-\
Quite a nice summary/comparison of Covid19 to regular Flu here
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
Takehome message is regular flu has a mortality rate of c. 0.05% (US data) Covid19 ~2%
Covid19 - 5% of cases were 'critial' where "Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure"
...in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%
Thought about a long weekend in Siurana but decided it would be irresponsible (see also Long Haul Flights thread)
Death on his pale horse has trotted into Wales :wavecry:
It's been a pleasure lads
Though it's worth taking with a pinch of salt. Sampling bias, loaded questions etc.
Death on his pale horse has trotted into Wales :wavecry:
The old and the sick. The current fatality rate is less than 0.5% for people under the age of 50. But it rises to 8% for people in their 70s and 15% for people over 80. Meanwhile, nearly 11% of people with diseases of the heart died when infected. As did 7% of people with diabetes and 6% of people with long-term lung problems. The average for healthy people is 0.9%.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51683428
Quite a nice summary/comparison of Covid19 to regular Flu here
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
Takehome message is regular flu has a mortality rate of c. 0.05% (US data) Covid19 ~2%
Covid19 - 5% of cases were 'critial' where "Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure"
Ok, on the surface, that seems worrying. However, later in the article it says;Quote...in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%
So, 0.4% is higher than the flu, but significantly lower than 2%.
One explanation for the higher 2.9% in the Hubei Province could be due to higher rates of respiratory illness due to the extremely high levels of atmospheric pollution (https://www.greenpeace.org/eastasia/blog/1820/bad-to-worse-ranking-74-chinese-cities-by-air-pollution/) in the area. Death rates won't be so high in areas where children have seen distinct clouds
US - esp of c.20% of the population have no healthcare??
It’s already “escaped” hasn’t it. Too many unexplained cases, too many undiagnosed wandering around.
US - esp of c.20% of the population have no healthcare??
The un- or underinsured in the US are, almost by definition, more likely to be poor, in more insecure employment, and with very few resources on which to fall back. They are probably much more likely to ignore symptoms, delay seeing a doctor, and to continue going to work when they feel sick. Not a good recipe.
I’m walking around Glasgow and just noting how many tourists there are, from just about every corner of the globe (not something I’d normally really remark) and it’s not even the busy season.
I don’t actually see how we could possibly control it.
I’m walking around Glasgow and just noting how many tourists there are, from just about every corner of the globe (not something I’d normally really remark) and it’s not even the busy season.
I don’t actually see how we could possibly control it.
My brother, currently living in Hong Kong, wrote similar to me recently (inbetween exchanges about Fury vs Wilder and LUFC's promotion hopes):
"It’s easy to mock Hong Kongers’ paranoia getting such that they’re committing armed robberies to get hold of face-masks and toilet roll (actually happened), but, on the other hand, at least they take it seriously and know what to do - plenty of experience of these epidemics! They’ll go months without going to cafes / pubs / sports events if they need to. Schools closed down. I just can’t see European governments / people adjusting to it quickly enough.
...Let’s put things in perspective by comparing it to the plague. It’s not as bad as the plague."
About the author:
Michel Chossudovsky is an award-winning author, Professor of Economics (emeritus) at the University of Ottawa, Founder and Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), Montreal, Editor of Global Research. He has taught as visiting professor in Western Europe, Southeast Asia, the Pacific and Latin America. He has served as economic adviser to governments of developing countries and has acted as a consultant for several international organizations. He is the author of eleven books including The Globalization of Poverty and The New World Order (2003), America’s “War on Terrorism” (2005), The Global Economic Crisis, The Great Depression of the Twenty-first Century (2009) (Editor), Towards a World War III Scenario: The Dangers of Nuclear War (2011), The Globalization of War, America's Long War against Humanity (2015). He is a contributor to the Encyclopaedia Britannica. His writings have been published in more than twenty languages. In 2014, he was awarded the Gold Medal for Merit of the Republic of Serbia for his writings on NATO's war of aggression against Yugoslavia. He can be reached at crgeditor@yahoo.com
Michel Chossudovsky (born 1946) is a Canadian economist, author and conspiracy theorist.[1][2] He is professor emeritus of economics at the University of Ottawa[3][4] and the president and director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), which publishes conspiracy theories.[5][6][7][8] Chossudovsky has promoted 9/11 conspiracy theories.[9][10][13][14]
In 2017, the Centre for Research on Globalization was accused by NATO information warfare specialists of playing a key role in the spread of pro-Russian propaganda.[6]
Chossudovsky is the son of a Russian Jewish émigré, the career United Nations diplomat and academic Evgeny Chossudovsky, and an Irish Protestant, Rachel Sullivan.[15] Raised in Switzerland, Chossudovsky moved to Canada and joined the University of Ottawa in 1968.[13][16] According to the Ottawa Citizen, Chossudovsky's academic research kept him "on the margins of mainstream academia," but won praise from anti-establishment intellectuals such as Noam Chomsky. In 2005, shortly after Chossudovsky began writing about terrorism, the Citizen reported that Chossudovsky's was "a popular figure among anti-globalization activists," and that some of his students referred to him as "Canada's Chomsky."[13] At that time, some colleagues were becoming uncomfortable with Chossudovsky's ideas, with one professor describing them as having "a conspiratorial element."[13]
I think one of the main reasons for trying to slow the spread of the virus is so the impact is spread over a few months on a health system - rather than all happen at once.
I was reading the personal account of a Chinese man (20 something) in Wuhan who has recovered - but was amazed to read that despite being self quarantined he still had 2-3 ct scans, was given retrovirals and anti HIV drugs and IV antibiotics that probably cleared up his lung problems.
That’s a high level of treatment from a stretched Chinese healthcare system. would that happen in the UK - or US - esp of c.20% of the population have no healthcare??
Doesn't an inability to pay and a fear of potentially being bankrupted for receiving care lead to people avoiding seeking the care they need?I think one of the main reasons for trying to slow the spread of the virus is so the impact is spread over a few months on a health system - rather than all happen at once.
I was reading the personal account of a Chinese man (20 something) in Wuhan who has recovered - but was amazed to read that despite being self quarantined he still had 2-3 ct scans, was given retrovirals and anti HIV drugs and IV antibiotics that probably cleared up his lung problems.
That’s a high level of treatment from a stretched Chinese healthcare system. would that happen in the UK - or US - esp of c.20% of the population have no healthcare??
It will certainly reduce mortality to have the cases spread out over time.
About the "20% have no healthcare", that's a bit of a misconception. 20% may have no health insurance but that doesn't mean that they don't get care.
Scotland has fallen.SNP planning to send in 500,000,000,000 midges to eat the virus...
This is also worth watching:
https://zdoggmd.com/peter-hotez-coronavirus/ (https://zdoggmd.com/peter-hotez-coronavirus/)
Strangely, Kierkegaard’s The Sickness Unto Death seems not to have had the same boost :-\https://www.naturalthinker.net/trl/texts/Kierkegaard,Soren/TheSicknessUntoDeath.pdf
More people die of seasonal flu. 3.5k globally from Corona
FWIW, her take re: being worried etc was "nah, just wash your hands well and don't panic. More people die of seasonal flu. 3.5k globally from Corona and 17.5k from seasonal flu..."
Rude...
That's a daft attitude
Rude...
That's a daft attitude
And...
No it’s not. It’s exactly the attitude (albeit expressed in a slightly more refined way) of every medical professional I have spoken to.
Employ sensible effective strategies that can be readily and willingly implemented by the population and have an appropriate cost:benefit. And crack on.
More people die of seasonal flu. 3.5k globally from Corona
To date...
We have a stores full of FFP3 face masks here.. willing to negotiate a good price for bulk orders... will even chuck in a free bottle of hand sanitiser for orders over 100..
The 18k figure for flu is also to date... this season
We have a stores full of FFP3 face masks here.. willing to negotiate a good price for bulk orders... will even chuck in a free bottle of hand sanitiser for orders over 100..
Get 'em on ebay! The sales figures for last few days are startling :o eg. this (https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/FFP3-Face-Mask-3M-8835-Valved-Safety-Breathing-Respirator-Dust-Particle-Filter/152814464216?_trkparms=ispr%3D1&hash=item239473acd8:m:mMpMdcydUjqnB5gxAb9tavg&enc=AQAEAAACQBPxNw%2BVj6nta7CKEs3N0qU3Yv5f7gO4W4%2BUIkPhW6wWy3CHWrmZ%2FDl30tYfTjTxcoGq2S7gLrSIl27kteMW6Z%2B80XrbZbxK2w7%2By3svXGTDApXI74CtZ8Fp0dsToOep49IdR3c%2FoAnAFg7QPuqZY3adQxTDBDjvY5SMsAo93OfMQiTENJ21yYyIYeInQbvInNcEUtIo7BTQ0UWtTlv%2F%2BDXzElrpJ9G43u%2Feqvj7HcW%2FxRD9e5ILSJYwWAXQU2wKOkE1jALex94TAZzkoDofFQTQAmDz2dIrPiClB3LkxD6xNveUZbZeQ8l%2FEhiuLK9ua5x9adMu2PuON%2FoINvwxqIvZK8tUCkf6GyxvLlgOW24pPtXPUTTdjK3rm4itz55RQpUR56uUxZKLek0aEjzlOiUDxSQeldCB8A2fasw6fCr6j4s1cnyUZm7RCbcMvLPF8zIr6svIq8YnSIREJXQgdqLVpaMOjObtF4oUWBF3Gnwxwd2%2FDo9f2yK9q6xBc%2FoEk8%2B7zEHElbDrPzRMA9uv%2FlrbAOBEcQLZGBAbyilvPZRZwCbSFV%2B%2BuTaoBHlsaYMy%2Ff0FpAZLcUBKEJ%2BTTjqIX3pGYyYt%2B8xYyf9ASbOGAtaFe4mo2ftJJ7lGRJrFZlmO0j0%2F%2Ffte5YiTkw4L27%2FfZyjq9rYgR13%2BiC84xUVV82lr4dJIUooAbgDMt4z%2BDB8q%2Fw7ntUlWe5MRwWOAINT4dabMD0t%2Fb3kwH3IeZsEBkeq%2BTf7vqd44DBp%2BKQwioJibOg%3D%3D&checksum=152814464216ecc339ff5a484d8c9cd79ce62f96124e)
Depending on the size of your storeroom, you could be retired by June?
I think the other thing, in terms of perspective is looking at historical cause of death. Being a sad man I found the Office Of National Statistics lets you download data on causes of death.
Sadly the most recent they have is 2018, but - taking for example Males, aged between 5 and 50, leading causes of death:
- Suicide: 2403
- Accidental Poisoning: 2057
- Land Traffic Accident: 450
A reminder that Covid-19 has (yes yes, so far) resulted in 1 UK death.
Did you worry excessively about your morning commute (assuming you drove in) this morning?
NB: Influenza and pneumonia killed 21,955 80+ year-olds that year alone.
taking for example Males, aged between 5 and 50, leading causes of death
Rude...
That's a daft attitude
And...
No it’s not. It’s exactly the attitude (albeit expressed in a slightly more refined way) of every medical professional I have spoken to.
Employ sensible effective strategies that can be readily and willingly implemented by the population and have an appropriate cost:benefit. And crack on.
I'm not sure that the media reporting about "killer viruses", panic buying and hand sanitiser shortage is particularly responsible in this context.
I guess we will know who is being rude here by this time next week.Calling someone daft is rude, a week will make no difference to that.
Summary (redit) of what has been learned from the Chinese outbreak.
https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fbt49e/the_who_sent_25_international_experts_to_china/
Also appear to have confused sister in law for wife... doh. Sorry
https://mobile.twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1235207174407802880
This is madness... the best way to generate panic is to hide information. Do the government seriously expect the population to believe providing location information is so difficult, now we have 30+ new cases every day, that it needs a IT solution (as a health minister said on BBC news at 7.40am) or it is so difficult that a weekly consolidation is the best solution. This is either incompetence or an outright lie on a major public health issue.
Its pretty clear we're going to have a widespread rate of infection; we don't need to know whether theres one in our town or not. Its like news by the minute; it just gives people something to worry about.
The people who regularly comment on local news sections on facebook hopefully dont represent a large proportion of the UK population (or we are all fucked anyway).
Or expectation management and not wanting to cause panic behaviour. Some of the comments on that DHSC twitter are borderline hysterical.
We're hardly lacking information - if you turn on the freely available bbc parliament right now on your media device of choice you can watch 3 hours of live coverage of the Chief Medical Officer answering questions about coronavirus from a committee of MPs. China we aren't.
Interesting info about the global mortality rate actually being 1% - reported mortality rate figures are currently skewed upwards by dividing fatalities by reported cases, when in fact there are a huge number of unreported cases and asymptomatic cases which won't be picked up. Roughly 8% mortality for over 80-year-olds, declining with age to less than 1% for the youngest generations.
On comparative mortality figures we don't know how many infected with flu are not counted either. A link upthread from the WHO expert, if you read between the lines, indicates massive under-reporting on flu infection..
....in any case you can only count deaths against reported cases.
Being a large authoritarian regime does seem like it can be extremely useful in situations like this, having a huge pool of resources you have direct control over is a useful asset, combined with a population who are used to doing what they are told.
Being a large authoritarian regime does seem like it can be extremely useful in situations like this, having a huge pool of resources you have direct control over is a useful asset, combined with a population who are used to doing what they are told.
Being a large authoritarian regime does seem like it can be extremely useful in situations like this, having a huge pool of resources you have direct control over is a useful asset, combined with a population who are used to doing what they are told.
As per our NHS. Will be interesting to see how response in UK/Europe with (generally) state healthcare fares against the more distributed system(1) in the US.
Offwidth what on earth are you talking about - I've just posted exactly what the chief medical officer has said publicly in the televised select committee Q&A, where he said the global mortality rate for covid-19 is estimated at 1%. He broke that down into different populations for age, various different underlying conditions, even down to pointing out the risk for smokers versus non-smokers. Is that not valid enough information for you?
He also answered many other questions, many of which hit on similar points made in your long post copy/pasting the WHO doc. I really don't see what you're getting at.
Offwidth, what do you actually want to happen? At the moment your posts just read like you typing away frantically in an ever increasing panic. I have reservations about how much any government can do in these situations.
Offwidth, what do you actually want to happen? At the moment your posts just read like you typing away frantically in an ever increasing panic. I have reservations about how much any government can do in these situations.
Offwidth, what do you actually want to happen? At the moment your posts just read like you typing away frantically in an ever increasing panic. I have reservations about how much any government can do in these situations.
I want honest public health information and advice, to a standard like we have seen in Singapore. I'd like Boris and Matt to be put right by medical experts when they claims by far the majority of people who catch it will have little or moderate symptoms when 15% so far have had serious problems and another 5% require intensive care; and when rabbits they claim to have in hats are largely fictional (we can have fast doubling in intensive care beds, mass recruitment of most retired medical staff is likely etc). I'd like people to be honestly told to be calm as possible but also vigilant as early diagnosis and contact tracking is the best way we keep this from being bigger than it needs to be. It seems to me too few are willing to stand up to this government blustering when we are moving out of (it's almost ubiquirous use in current tory) politics and into life threatening circumstances. I'd like the government and the DHSC to behave as well as experts would want them to
I suppose one of the advantages of being in the writing up stage is I just sit alone at my desk all day and have limited interaction with students/staff.
I recon if/when cases get reported at my uni, the remote working capabilities are going to get hammered...
I suppose one of the advantages of being in the writing up stage is I just sit alone at my desk all day and have limited interaction with students/staff.
I recon if/when cases get reported at my uni, the remote working capabilities are going to get hammered...
I (and two offices worth of employees) had to work from home today, so the company could test work continuity should it all kick off.
Today I was notified I will be working from home until the situation changes.
Today I was notified I will be working from home until the situation changes.
Don't break yourself on the fingerboard......
I (and two offices worth of employees) had to work from home today, so the company could test work continuity should it all kick off.
5. As shark 'works' from home and you work in a large institution his risk is much greater and he won't let you get close enough for you to have to make that decision.
Currently weighing-up the risks going to Ceuse in June via the train to Avignon. From a risk of getting infected perspective, I have no major concerns: being in Ceuse will be a lot less risky than being in London. Train travel is slightly risky but probably less so than going to work on the Tube.
My major concern is travel to France (or from the UK) will be banned or advised against. I think this is irrational but governments can’t be relied on to act rationally according to best evidence. A lesser concern is that one of us gets infected or have to self-isolate at the wrong time (two of us work in high-risk environments).
So my view is still that we book tickets but take out insurance having had a very careful look at the exclusion clauses of the policies available. If anyone has any suggestions regarding insurance please let me know!
From what I've read CV 19 won't last long in high 20s, maybe why there are no outbreaks in Southern Hemisphere where it's midsummer?
In any case, there are shitloads of crags you can go to where you're not going to bump into anyone. Could be the ideal time to go to Yeadon/Eavestone/Sypeland/Sigsworth etc etc etc.
[monthly nohotwaterforBeaconcustomers moan]
1. Coronavirus will have to queue up behind the rest of the massed ranks of viruses lurking around in the Beacon waiting to infect you, since they're too stingy to provide their customers with warm water to wash their hands after using the loo or after climbing.
[/monthly nohotwaterforBeaconcustomers moan]
From what I've read CV 19 won't last long in high 20s, maybe why there are no outbreaks in Southern Hemisphere where it's midsummer?
Has there been a major tectonic episode over night and Australia move several thousand K’s north? 😃
Yeah I was actually aware of that about bacteria/hygiene, however cold water doesn't get rid of dirt and grease very well does it. The simple practicalities of getting the grease, dirt and chalk off your hands is much easier with warm water than cold. That's why we use it to wash stuff isn't it.[monthly nohotwaterforBeaconcustomers moan]
1. Coronavirus will have to queue up behind the rest of the massed ranks of viruses lurking around in the Beacon waiting to infect you, since they're too stingy to provide their customers with warm water to wash their hands after using the loo or after climbing.
[/monthly nohotwaterforBeaconcustomers moan]
Warm water offers no benefit for hygiene when washing hands.
Most bacteria and viruses are not affected by warm water. For the water to be hot enough to impact them, is going to irritate (or even scald) your skin, leaving you more susceptible to infection.
Maybe the Beacon are trying to look out for your safety :-\
Yeah I was actually aware of that about bacteria/hygiene, however cold water doesn't get rid of dirt and grease very well does it. The simple practicalities of getting the grease, dirt and chalk off your hands is much easier with warm water than cold. That's why we use it to wash stuff isn't it.[monthly nohotwaterforBeaconcustomers moan]
1. Coronavirus will have to queue up behind the rest of the massed ranks of viruses lurking around in the Beacon waiting to infect you, since they're too stingy to provide their customers with warm water to wash their hands after using the loo or after climbing.
[/monthly nohotwaterforBeaconcustomers moan]
Warm water offers no benefit for hygiene when washing hands.
Most bacteria and viruses are not affected by warm water. For the water to be hot enough to impact them, is going to irritate (or even scald) your skin, leaving you more susceptible to infection.
Maybe the Beacon are trying to look out for your safety :-\
[monthly nohotwaterforBeaconcustomers moan]
1. Coronavirus will have to queue up behind the rest of the massed ranks of viruses lurking around in the Beacon waiting to infect you, since they're too stingy to provide their customers with warm water to wash their hands after using the loo or after climbing.
[/monthly nohotwaterforBeaconcustomers moan]
Warm water offers no benefit for hygiene when washing hands.
Most bacteria and viruses are not affected by warm water. For the water to be hot enough to impact them, is going to irritate (or even scald) your skin, leaving you more susceptible to infection.
Maybe the Beacon are trying to look out for your safety :-\
A decent surfactant makes far more difference when getting rid of non water soluble compounds than temperature. Though I'm guessing the Beacon often doesn't have decent handwash either?
Beaconcouldshould be reported - warm/hot water for washing is a basic work place requirement IIRC.
The expert I heard on the BBC the other day said that warm water was important. Water above 25-30 degrees physically breaks down the virus. Hence washing clothes/gloves works too.
Beacon could be reported - warm/hot water for washing is a basic work place requirement IIRC.
Sorry if I’m slow (I read the link TT) so can the virus stay on rock ? And is it worse on non porous rock ?
As someone posted further back up the thread, when this event is over the data will shine more interesting light on differences between countries standards of underlying health, quality of health services and other underlying issues affecting quality of life. Poverty will probably be an underlying factor as always, but the fact that the younger seem to escape much more lightly than the older - relatively more affluent but probably suffering more underlying ill health - might make poverty less of a factor. Maybe it will also help focus minds on the relative merits of good health versus level of affluence...
Off topic, but I'd be interested in the logistics of getting to Ceuse via train. Could you possibly drop me a DM with the websites etc you're using? Cheers
Off topic, but I'd be interested in the logistics of getting to Ceuse via train. Could you possibly drop me a DM with the websites etc you're using? Cheers
Can't speak for Duncan but his post mentions Avignon, which is served by direct train from London in the summer (London to Avignon, Aix and Marseille).
But more widely I've found seat61.com to be a mine of useful information for European train planning!
Sanitiser aside / I suspect it’s more supply chain issues (stock in the wrong places etc..) than anything actually running out.
Mrs reports that folk are nicking the sanitizer dispensers off hospital walls.
opportunistic twats seeing a money-making opportunityGuess you didn't get them listed then!? Good for you. Virtue signal alert, couldn't quite bring myself to sell my modest stock of masks (would've been the easiest few hundred quid I'd ever exploited) though must admit I was tempted. Opportunistic twatdom narrowly avoided!
...we'll be at the 5k+ cases in the first week of April... which is at which time the Italians have decided to lock things down.
...we'll be at the 5k+ cases in the first week of April... which is at which time the Italians have decided to lock things down.
I am so up for two weeks self-isolation around then. Somewhere remote in Pembroke would be ideal.
Joking aside, it’s all about flattening that peak so my Mum, Sister, and other high-risk folk still have a hospital bed to go to if they need to.
Also no bread flour, and lots of people buying LOTS and LOTS of tins of spaghetti hoops.As long as they leave the tinned beans and sausages you're quids in. Those bad boys are like Michelin starred manna.
Some grim reading from Italy.
https://mobile.twitter.com/silviast9/status/1236933833653653505
So be patient, you can't go to the theatre, museums or the gym. Try to have pity on the myriad of old people you could exterminate.
wiped out!
Just been chatting to a friend on there way to a big DofE policy meeting re schools reaction to this.
Seems like they are looking at extending the Easter hols to 4 or 6 weeks starting early, maybe as early as two weeks time.
Nice for the kids and teachers but maybe a bit shit for people with kids to look after.
Still better than widely distributed amounts of deaths...
Surreal moment.
But the effect on middle age suicide rates and infanticide needs to be considered if you lock parents inside with their children for 4 weeks.
Don’t worry though teachers. I suggested you could all just play catch up by reducing your summer hols to two weeks. I knew you wouldn’t want any more time of work.
I knew that was the case which is why i suggested you would all be happy to give up your summer holidays to help out
Well good luck to him. Depending on what the DfE decides it may be possible for schools to run reduced schedules focusing on exam groups.
We're trying to re-arrange field trips here amongst the shifting sands of changing government and University advice. Within 24 hours we've changed from do whatever you like apart from Italy/China etc.. to non essential OSeas travel cancelled to all OSeas and non-essential UK travel stopped. And now, no UK travel on public transport. Which raises questions for those who use public transport to go to work etc..
For once I don't blame them (university admin) - they're trying to figure out what to do when the situation changes almost hourly... we've had at least 3 missives today... and an extra two missives trying to explain the meaning of the other missives.
On the plus side, as the situation is going to get predictably worse, the markets probably have a long way left to fall as they seem to be reacting to news rather than any sort of forecasting. You can save your pension by shorting the market on the way down, I have, it's working well (thus far).
Staff have already been given the option of not coming in if they don't feel happy with coming in...
On the plus side, as the situation is going to get predictably worse, the markets probably have a long way left to fall as they seem to be reacting to news rather than any sort of forecasting. You can save your pension by shorting the market on the way down, I have, it's working well (thus far).
Not sure I agree with many of these points!
10% is ICU, 55% hospitalized!
Bradders - I think my colleague in the office next door who has had pneumonia twice in the last year (and still had a hacking cough), my PHD student with immune deficiency staying away is very sensible behaviour.
Not a snowflake. Whatever that horrible term means.
Yes there are some very disturbing threads kicking around on Twitter that paint quite a different picture to how the virus has been reported elsewhere. Obviously fingers crossed the UK doesn't end up in that boat...
You made it sound like people are being given complete license to stop coming to work just because they're nervous about the situation, as opposed to genuinely vulnerable people having a sensible discussion with their line management and deciding on appropriate precautions; which is a very different thing.
Mine will be hanging on to office based staff until the government forces their hand at gunpoint...
I'm simply gobsmacked some here are still saying most of us will be OK,
And are we really getting our news from Twitter now?!
Quote from: BraddersAnd are we really getting our news from Twitter now?!
Seriously? I've been getting all my news from Twitter for years now, and so it seems do most of the world's top journalists. Are you confusing it with Facebook or something?
Quote from: BraddersAnd are we really getting our news from Twitter now?!
Seriously? I've been getting all my news from Twitter for years now, and so it seems do most of the world's top journalists. Are you confusing it with Facebook or something?
Plus the person posting is a doctor from a hospitial on the verge of collapse under the pressure.
In answer to Ru's qustion I'm gobsmacked people seem to be missing the real problems. I'm little concerned with those who will be OK, I'm very concerned with what looks now like hundreds or thousands in the UK and tens if not hundreds of thousands elsewhere who will not, and how health systems will cope (like the NHS, if we follow the pattern and face the same issues as Italy in 2 weeks) . Imagine the impact of no functionall secondary health system (hospitals) on everything else, let alone on the 'too many' serious coronavirus victims. People need to take this very seriously without panic and try to do all they can to stop infection spreading.
Agreed. It's pretty certain that all elective and non-emergency hospital appointments are going to be cancelled for an untold period when this shit gets really bad.
Why would people stop getting normal flu?
The UK population is 66.44 milliion
I think 10000 - 15000 people are killed by flu in Uk every year, surely coronavirus will mainly take a big chunk of this group and not a group on top of this.
Have a read of what's going on in Italy Gav. It's on top. Why would people stop getting normal flu? Plus once the hospitals are full, people start dying who wouldn't have.
The UK population is 66.44 milliion
I think 10000 - 15000 people are killed by flu in Uk every year, surely coronavirus will mainly take a big chunk of this group and not a group on top of this.
We're told to expect between 40% and 80% to be infected
Case fatality rates quoted range from 1% to 5%
Based on those figures the UK deathtoll would be between 265,760 and 2,657,600
Both of my parents would be f**ked if they get it i suspect but the same could be said of any flu.
No idea where the 40-80% figures come from as this is far worse than any pandemic ever. Worse cases are 30% ish.
I think 10000 - 15000 people are killed by flu in Uk every year, surely coronavirus will mainly take a big chunk of this group and not a group on top of this.
For this to have the same death toll as the flu does each year, based on a 3% death rate from Coronavirus we will need to have 43 million cases in the uk.
Sorry did the numbers in my head. should have been 430000.I think 10000 - 15000 people are killed by flu in Uk every year, surely coronavirus will mainly take a big chunk of this group and not a group on top of this.QuoteFor this to have the same death toll as the flu does each year, based on a 3% death rate from Coronavirus we will need to have 43 million cases in the uk.
Eh? 3% of 43 million is 1,290,000.
For 15,000 to die at 3% we'd need 0.5 million cases, or 0.75% infected.
Italy's stats today: 10,100 cases, 649 deaths, 724 recovered.
A longer post - on a different point. I've had a few conversations and been mulling the following over the last few days....
We don't know how this is all going to pan out at the moment (for the better or for the worse) - but I hope some positives will come from this too. These include:
1. Changing the 9-5 in the office work ethic - and making homeworking and remote working more the norm than the exception. I hope and suspect that many changes in the workplace that are happening right now because of CV19 will lead to a long lasting shift in this. Of course many jobs require a workplace - but many in our largely service driven economy do not - and I hope this can show that people can carry on doing whatever spreadsheet shuffling they may do equally as well at home as at work.
2. Putting a dent in our short haul flight addiction. Maybe less optimism for this - folk may well return to business as usual once this changes. But - with the travel restrictions and downturn in flying I hope people start to realise that they don't need to have five europe mini breaks a year and can have just as relaxing/equivalent break closer to home (with less emissions required...). There are lots of positives in terms of widening peoples perspectives and breaking down cultural barriers of going to lots of places - but I can't help but think we do too much of it.
3. A slower pace of life. Already (from my observations) the roads and public transport are noticably quieter... Not so much self quarantine, but people making concious decisions to go out less, spending more time at home etc.. are these necessarily bad things? (thuogh it may just lead to Netflix dependancy issues :D )
4. If we do less - will we consume less - and leading to a wider point does this mean less of an emphasis on the growth growth growth economic model that the world seems to have subscribed to? I doubt CV19 will stop this - but maybe putting a dent in it and slowing things down globally isnt such a bad thing... (I await someone with stocks and shares pension/isa/savings to come back at me otherwise with this..)
Anyway - just some general musings about how it may change the world we live in - possibly in some positive ways. None of the above is evidence based :)
How bad it will be will depend entirely on how quickly we move into lockdown. Hopefully we will do so early and the worst of it will be people moaning that it didn't seem bad enough to justify it.If any lockdown is successful, it will almost certainly lead to people moaning about exactly this.
How bad it will be will depend entirely on how quickly we move into lockdown. Hopefully we will do so early and the worst of it will be people moaning that it didn't seem bad enough to justify it.
The 80% figure comes from Chris Whitty, the UK's chief medical officer, stated as the reasonable worst case scenario. The 40% to 80% range was a quote from someone from the World Health Organisation on Radio 4.
No idea where the 40-80% figures come from as this is far worse than any pandemic ever. Worse cases are 30% ish.
Btw, Gav, the point about all these measures is that for them to actually be effective, you have to implement them before you think you need to. By the time you shut the stable door the horse has bolted.
What's the point of having a lockdown when it's already become widespread among the population?
Btw, Gav, the point about all these measures is that for them to actually be effective, you have to implement them before you think you need to. By the time you shut the stable door the horse has bolted.
I think thats probably Gavs point.....
Good interview here with a guy from WHO who's been to see the Chinese measures. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html
Wasnt the lockdown in China a proper one with no movement at all. As far as i am aware you can still do most things in Italy just not large gatherings, School closures and your asked to keep a bit of personal space.
QuoteGood interview here with a guy from WHO who's been to see the Chinese measures. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html
Wasnt the lockdown in China a proper one with no movement at all. As far as i am aware you can still do most things in Italy just not large gatherings, School closures and your asked to keep a bit of personal space.
As the leader of the World Health Organization team that visited China, Dr. Bruce Aylward feels he has been to the mountaintop — and has seen what’s possible.
During a two-week visit in early February, Dr. Aylward saw how China rapidly suppressed the coronavirus outbreak that had engulfed Wuhan, and was threatening the rest of the country.
New cases in China have dropped to about 200 a day, from more than 3,000 in early February. The numbers may rise again as China’s economy begins to revive. But for now, far more new cases are appearing elsewhere in the world.
China’s counterattack can be replicated, Dr. Aylward said, but it will require speed, money, imagination and political courage.
For countries that act quickly, containment is still possible “because we don’t have a global pandemic — we have outbreaks occurring globally,” he added.
Dr. Aylward, who has 30 years experience in fighting polio, Ebola and other global health emergencies, detailed in an interview with The New York Times how he thinks the campaign against the virus should be run.
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This conversation has been edited and condensed.
Do we know what this virus’s lethality is? We hear some estimates that it’s close to the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed 2.5 percent of its victims, and others that it’s a little worse than the seasonal flu, which kills only 0.1 percent. How many cases are missed affects that.
There’s this big panic in the West over asymptomatic cases. Many people are asymptomatic when tested, but develop symptoms within a day or two.
In Guangdong, they went back and retested 320,000 samples originally taken for influenza surveillance and other screening. Less than 0.5 percent came up positive, which is about the same number as the 1,500 known Covid cases in the province. (Covid-19 is the medical name of the illness caused by the coronavirus.)
There is no evidence that we’re seeing only the tip of a grand iceberg, with nine-tenths of it made up of hidden zombies shedding virus. What we’re seeing is a pyramid: most of it is aboveground.
Once we can test antibodies in a bunch of people, maybe I’ll be saying, “Guess what? Those data didn’t tell us the story.” But the data we have now don’t support it.
That’s good, if there’s little asymptomatic transmission. But it’s bad in that it implies that the death rates we’ve seen — from 0.7 percent in parts of China to 5.8 percent in Wuhan — are correct, right?
I’ve heard it said that “the mortality rate is not so bad because there are actually way more mild cases.” Sorry — the same number of people that were dying, still die. The real case fatality rate is probably what it is outside Hubei Province, somewhere between 1 and 2 percent.
ImagePatients waiting to be transferred from one hospital in Wuhan to Leishenshan Hospital, a newly built medical center to address the epidemic that is also in Wuhan, China.
Patients waiting to be transferred from one hospital in Wuhan to Leishenshan Hospital, a newly built medical center to address the epidemic that is also in Wuhan, China.Credit...Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
What about children? We know they are rarely hospitalized. But do they get infected? Do they infect their families?
We don’t know. That Guangdong survey also turned up almost no one under 20. Kids got flu, but not this. We have to do more studies to see if they get it and aren’t affected, and if they pass it to family members. But I asked dozens of doctors: Have you seen a chain of transmission where a child was the index case? The answer was no.
U.S. Will Drop Limits on Virus Testing, Pence SaysMarch 3, 2020
Why? There’s a theory that youngsters get the four known mild coronaviruses so often that they’re protected.
Get an informed guide to the global outbreak with our daily coronavirus newsletter.
That’s still a theory. I couldn’t get enough people to agree to put it in the W.H.O. report.
Does that imply that closing schools is pointless?
No. That’s still a question mark. If a disease is dangerous, and you see clusters, you have to close schools. We know that causes problems, because as soon as you send kids home, half your work force has to stay home to take care of them. But you don’t take chances with children.
Are the cases in China really going down?
I know there’s suspicion, but at every testing clinic we went to, people would say, “It’s not like it was three weeks ago.” It peaked at 46,000 people asking for tests a day; when we left, it was 13,000. Hospitals had empty beds.
I didn’t see anything that suggested manipulation of numbers. A rapidly escalating outbreak has plateaued, and come down faster than would have been expected. Back of the envelope, it’s hundreds of thousands of people in China that did not get Covid-19 because of this aggressive response.
Is the virus infecting almost everyone, as you would expect a novel flu to?
No — 75 to 80 percent of all clusters are in families. You get the odd ones in hospitals or restaurants or prisons, but the vast majority are in families. And only 5 to 15 percent of your close contacts develop disease. So they try to isolate you from your relatives as quickly as possible, and find everyone you had contact with in 48 hours before that.
You said different cities responded differently. How?
It depended on whether they had zero cases, sporadic ones, clusters or widespread transmission.
First, you have to make sure everyone knows the basics: hand-washing, masks, not shaking hands, what the symptoms are. Then, to find sporadic cases, they do fever checks everywhere, even stopping cars on highways to check everyone.
As soon as you find clusters, you shut schools, theaters, restaurants. Only Wuhan and the cities near it went into total lockdown.
How did the Chinese reorganize their medical response?
First, they moved 50 percent of all medical care online so people didn’t come in. Have you ever tried to reach your doctor on Friday night? Instead, you contacted one online. If you needed prescriptions like insulin or heart medications, they could prescribe and deliver it.
But if you thought you had coronavirus?
You would be sent to a fever clinic. They would take your temperature, your symptoms, medical history, ask where you’d traveled, your contact with anyone infected. They’d whip you through a CT scan …
Wait — “whip you through a CT scan”?
Each machine did maybe 200 a day. Five, 10 minutes a scan. Maybe even partial scans. A typical hospital in the West does one or two an hour. And not X-rays; they could come up normal, but a CT would show the “ground-glass opacities” they were looking for.
(Dr. Aylward was referring to lung abnormalities seen in coronavirus patients.)
And then?
If you were still a suspect case, you’d get swabbed. But a lot would be told, “You’re not Covid.” People would come in with colds, flu, runny noses. That’s not Covid. If you look at the symptoms, 90 percent have fever, 70 percent have dry coughs, 30 percent have malaise, trouble breathing. Runny noses were only 4 percent.
The swab was for a PCR test, right? How fast could they do that? Until recently, we were sending all of ours to Atlanta.
They got it down to four hours.
So people weren’t sent home?
No, they had to wait. You don’t want someone wandering around spreading virus.
If they were positive, what happened?
They’d be isolated. In Wuhan, in the beginning, it was 15 days from getting sick to hospitalization. They got it down to two days from symptoms to isolation. That meant a lot fewer infected — you choke off this thing’s ability to find susceptibles.
What’s the difference between isolation and hospitalization?
With mild symptoms, you go to an isolation center. They were set up in gymnasiums, stadiums — up to 1,000 beds. But if you were severe or critical, you’d go straight to hospitals. Anyone with other illnesses or over age 65 would also go straight to hospitals.
What were mild, severe and critical? We think of “mild” as like a minor cold.
No. “Mild” was a positive test, fever, cough — maybe even pneumonia, but not needing oxygen. “Severe” was breathing rate up and oxygen saturation down, so needing oxygen or a ventilator. “Critical” was respiratory failure or multi-organ failure.
So saying 80 percent of all cases are mild doesn’t mean what we thought.
I’m Canadian. This is the Wayne Gretzky of viruses — people didn’t think it was big enough or fast enough to have the impact it does.
Hospitals were also separated?
Yes. The best hospitals were designated just for Covid, severe and critical. All elective surgeries were postponed. Patients were moved. Other hospitals were designated just for routine care: women still have to give birth, people still suffer trauma and heart attacks.
They built two new hospitals, and they rebuilt hospitals. If you had a long ward, they’d build a wall at the end with a window, so it was an isolation ward with “dirty” and “clean” zones. You’d go in, gown up, treat patients, and then go out the other way and de-gown. It was like an Ebola treatment unit, but without as much disinfection because it’s not body fluids.
How good were the severe and critical care?
China is really good at keeping people alive. Its hospitals looked better than some I see here in Switzerland. We’d ask, “How many ventilators do you have?” They’d say “50.” Wow! We’d say, “How many ECMOs?” They’d say “five.” The team member from the Robert Koch Institute said, “Five? In Germany, you get three, maybe. And just in Berlin.”
(ECMOs are extracorporeal membrane oxygenation machines, which oxygenate the blood when the lungs fail.)
Who paid for all of this?
The government made it clear: testing is free. And if it was Covid-19, when your insurance ended, the state picked up everything.
In the U.S., that’s a barrier to speed. People think: “If I see my doctor, it’s going to cost me $100. If I end up in the I.C.U., what’s it going to cost me?” That’ll kill you. That’s what could wreak havoc. This is where universal health care coverage and security intersect. The U.S. has to think this through.
What about the nonmedical response?
It was nationwide. There was this tremendous sense of, “We’ve got to help Wuhan,” not “Wuhan got us into this.” Other provinces sent 40,000 medical workers, many of whom volunteered.
In Wuhan, our special train pulled in at night, and it was the saddest thing — the big intercity trains roar right through, with the blinds down.
We got off, and another group did. I said, “Hang on a minute, I thought we were the only ones allowed to get off.” They had these little jackets and a flag — it was a medical team from Guangdong coming in to help.
How did people in Wuhan eat if they had to stay indoors?
Fifteen million people had to order food online. It was delivered. Yes, there were some screw-ups. But one woman said to me: “Every now and again there’s something missing from a package, but I haven’t lost any weight.”
Lots of government employees were reassigned?
From all over society. A highway worker might take temperatures, deliver food or become a contact tracer. In one hospital, I met the woman teaching people how to gown up. I asked, “You’re the infection control expert?” No, she was a receptionist. She’d learned.
How did technology play a role?
They’re managing massive amounts of data, because they’re trying to trace every contact of 70,000 cases. When they closed the schools, really, just the buildings closed. The schooling moved online.
Contact tracers had on-screen forms. If you made a mistake, it flashed yellow. It was idiot-proof.
We went to Sichuan, which is vast but rural. They’d rolled out 5G. We were in the capital, at an emergency center with huge screens. They had a problem understanding one cluster. On one screen, they got the county headquarters. Still didn’t solve it.
So they got the field team. Here’s this poor team leader 500 kilometers away, and he gets a video call on his phone, and it’s the governor.
What about social media?
They had Weibo and Tencent and WeChat giving out accurate information to all users. You could have Facebook and Twitter and Instagram do that.
Isn’t all of this impossible in America?
Look, journalists are always saying: “Well, we can’t do this in our country.” There has to be a shift in mind-set to rapid response thinking. Are you just going to throw up your hands? There’s a real moral hazard in that, a judgment call on what you think of your vulnerable populations.
Ask yourself: Can you do the easy stuff? Can you isolate 100 patients? Can you trace 1,000 contacts? If you don’t, this will roar through a community.
Isn’t it possible only because China is an autocracy?
Journalists also say, “Well, they’re only acting out of fear of the government,” as if it’s some evil fire-breathing regime that eats babies. I talked to lots of people outside the system — in hotels, on trains, in the streets at night.
They’re mobilized, like in a war, and it’s fear of the virus that was driving them. They really saw themselves as on the front lines of protecting the rest of China. And the world.
Image
A medical worker in a hospital in Wuhan working with traditional medicines to treat patients.
A medical worker in a hospital in Wuhan working with traditional medicines to treat patients.Credit...Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
China is restarting its economy now. How can it do that without creating a new wave of infections?
It’s a “phased restart.” It means different things in different provinces.
Some are keeping schools closed longer. Some are only letting factories that make things crucial to the supply chain open. For migrant workers who went home — well, Chengdu has 5 million migrant workers.
First, you have to see a doctor and get a certificate that you’re “no risk.” It’s good for three days.
Then you take the train to where you work. If it’s Beijing, you then have to self-quarantine for two weeks. Your temperature is monitored, sometimes by phone, sometimes by physical check.
What’s going on with the treatment clinical trials?
They’re double-blind trials, so I don’t know the results. We should know more in a couple of weeks.
The biggest challenge was enrolling people. The number of severe patients is dropping, and there’s competition for them. And every ward is run by a team from another province, so you have to negotiate with each one, make sure they’re doing the protocols right.
And there are 200 trials registered — too many. I told them: “You’ve got to prioritize things that have promising antiviral properties.”
And they’re testing traditional medicines?
Yes, but it’s a few standard formulations. It’s not some guy sitting at the end of the bed cooking up herbs. They think they have some fever-reducing or anti-inflammatory properties. Not antivirals, but it makes people feel better because they’re used to it.
What did you do to protect yourself?
A heap of hand-sanitizer. We wore masks, because it was government policy. We didn’t meet patients or contacts of patients or go into hospital dirty zones.
And we were socially distant. We sat one per row on the bus. We ate meals in our hotel rooms or else one person per table. In conference rooms, we sat one per table and used microphones or shouted at each other.
That’s why I’m so hoarse. But I was tested, and I know I don’t have Covid.
TomTom - That's odd, I can read for free (just ignore and scroll past banner at start).Quote
Thanks for posting. I think its because I've used my 5 free artucles a month or something...
In my case I mean ceasing running training courses and limiting personal interactions. We have 16 guys coming here from all over the UK and beyond every week to spend 35 hours heavy breathing while straddling each other. In the great scheme of things postponing courses won't harm anyone and I'd rather do what I can to avoid a healthcare crisis.
We've kept our overheads are fairly low so shutting for a month or so doesn't worry me but I do need to make a call a few days ahead. Working on Italy's example we can either do it ourselves next week or have it forced on us the week after. Monitoring the stats carefully for now.
I do however think we could easily go to far and create long term economic pain far greater than a 10-15% spike in the UKs annual death rate
In my case I mean ceasing running training courses and limiting personal interactions. We have 16 guys coming here from all over the UK and beyond every week to spend 35 hours heavy breathing while straddling each other. In the great scheme of things postponing courses won't harm anyone and I'd rather do what I can to avoid a healthcare crisis.
We've kept our overheads are fairly low so shutting for a month or so doesn't worry me but I do need to make a call a few days ahead. Working on Italy's example we can either do it ourselves next week or have it forced on us the week after. Monitoring the stats carefully for now.
QuoteI do however think we could easily go to far and create long term economic pain far greater than a 10-15% spike in the UKs annual death rate
Hmm, I'll take long term economic pain over death personally, but I can't speak for everyone. Struggling to see how you can compare economic 'pain' with actual death tbh?
QuoteI do however think we could easily go to far and create long term economic pain far greater than a 10-15% spike in the UKs annual death rate
Hmm, I'll take long term economic pain over death personally, but I can't speak for everyone. Struggling to see how you can compare economic 'pain' with actual death tbh?
Long term economic pain will equal more deaths though just wont show as a bump on a chart.
Uni has cancelled all fieldwork indefinitely, and vivas can be done via video-conferencing. I'm lucky that this hasn't messed things up for me in any big ways, but this must be causing nightmares for some.
We've just been told that if/when the government adopts the "delay stage" our work office will close.
We've just been told that if/when the government adopts the "delay stage" our work office will close.
that seems weird, why not working from home?
QuoteI do however think we could easily go to far and create long term economic pain far greater than a 10-15% spike in the UKs annual death rate
Hmm, I'll take long term economic pain over death personally, but I can't speak for everyone. Struggling to see how you can compare economic 'pain' with actual death tbh?
Long term economic pain will equal more deaths though just wont show as a bump on a chart.
This is not supported by data: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00210-0
"Death rates have dropped during past economic downturns, even as many health trends have worsened."
Denmark just announced a complete lockdown for the next two weeks (for now, presumably).
Still trying to figure it out, in particular for travel to and from the country (not that we're planning any travel, but I hope it means travel to and from will be very tightly restricted and seriously monitored). All schools/universities, non essential government work, and cultural institutions closed. All private enterprises strongly encouraged to move to distance working where possible. Total lockdown is probably too strong a term. But I am very concerned given my wife's very comprised health currently. I think I will be the only one leaving the apartment for the time being and then only to ensure we have food.
This is an excellent article - for me the best bit was how the Chinese data can be used to show how many undiagnosed cases there are at the moment (he estimates 25000-140000 in France 😱).
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Soz OMM. Didn’t know.
This is an excellent article - for me the best bit was how the Chinese data can be used to show how many undiagnosed cases there are at the moment (he estimates 25000-140000 in France 😱).
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
I linked that article a few posts earlier.
The US's travel restrictions seem crazy, UK exempt citizens exempt but screened? On holiday with a group of Americans, all trying to get home before it starts now... Seems like it'll just start a travel panic, and do little to realistically prevent transmissionThis happened in Italy where news of the impending lockdown was leaked the day before, leading to lots of people traveling across the country while they still could to be at home/with family.
QuoteGood interview here with a guy from WHO who's been to see the Chinese measures. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html
Wasnt the lockdown in China a proper one with no movement at all. As far as i am aware you can still do most things in Italy just not large gatherings, School closures and your asked to keep a bit of personal space.
FFS paywalls... any chance you can copy and paste a couple of choice bits (or the lot if its not too long?)?
Macron is giving a national address tonight at 1900 GMT (2000 in France) concerning CV-19. Hopefully not restricting travel.
Irish Schools and Colleges now closed.
I predict Boris will make the same announcement after lunch. Schools closed from now until Easter holidays.
Big sporting event happening at the works this weekend i think. I bet there hoping the announcement that is looking more and more likely is held off until Monday.
Its got virus spread written all over it.
We were advised to contact 111 whom in turn referred back to our local GPs. GP advice was that, as there are no confirmed cases in our area that it is just a cold/flu virus and unlikely to be COVID. No requests for isolation, no testing nothing..
Macron is giving a national address tonight at 1900 GMT (2000 in France) concerning CV-19. Hopefully not restricting travel.
Not meaning to be a dick but surely a font Easter trip (I assume that is why you don't want travel restricted) is not that important in the grand scheme of things during the current outbreak... The rocks will still be there for a long time after this pandemic. I just hope that peoples older/high risk relatives and friends are also around for a long time as well.
Having said that we do seem to have tested a lot with a low rate of positives, not seen any good stats on how that compares to elsewhere though.
This is an excellent article - for me the best bit was how the Chinese data can be used to show how many undiagnosed cases there are at the moment (he estimates 25000-140000 in France 😱).
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
But that doesn't mean that I wont be pissed off and comfort eat 10 cookies if my trip gets cancelled.
https://youtu.be/hwmlNFBqfiY (https://youtu.be/hwmlNFBqfiY)
Hi James,
It certainly is a worrying read. Unfortunately whilst we do seem to have done quite a bit of testing. There are quite a few reports of people waiting days and days to hear about a test and getting no response. Despite having been to high risk areas and having the symptoms too.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/11/uk-coronavirus-cases-jump-to-456-and-eighth-briton-dies
The article describes the following situation:
"Phillip Meyer, a businessman from Kent, said he and his son had been waiting nine days for a coronavirus test after getting a cough following a trip to northern Italy.
He said: “We are testing between 1,000 and 2,000 people a day in the UK, so clearly there is a bottleneck. If in South Korea they test 15,000 a day, why can’t we do that here?”
A retired intensive care doctor told the Guardian that the increase has come “way too late” after he and his friends were repeatedly refused tests despite falling ill following a skiing trip, to Ischgl in Austria. The 55-year-old doctor from Chichester, who has his name only as Andrew said: “They may be upping the testing but they haven’t put Ischgl on a high risk list, despite knowing about this for days. Six of us have been back in Chichester going about their daily life. I suspect we’ll find a big cluster in Chichester two weeks.”
Quite worrying.
Macron is giving a national address tonight at 1900 GMT (2000 in France) concerning CV-19. Hopefully not restricting travel.
Not meaning to be a dick but surely a font Easter trip (I assume that is why you don't want travel restricted) is not that important in the grand scheme of things during the current outbreak... The rocks will still be there for a long time after this pandemic. I just hope that peoples older/high risk relatives and friends are also around for a long time as well.
Of course contextually my concern for a pleasant trip pales in comparison, foolish for me to think a climbing-related comment on a climbing-related forum was appropriate though. Will refrain in the future.
Big sporting event happening at the works this weekend i think. I bet there hoping the announcement that is looking more and more likely is held off until Monday.Indeed, was planning to head to a comp. at the Hangar in Plymouth this weekend, I know it’s not quite the CWIF but at present it’s still on.
Its got virus spread written all over it.
They met with a funeral directors yesterday who you would have thought was delighted at this. However he’s expecting less work as he thinks rates will drop due to all the cleaning going on having a positive ( negative in his case) effect on the volume of normal flu, novovirus etc cases that supply him with customers.
Had a meeting with my bank manager today ( they could only attend if less than 6 people involved). They met with a funeral directors yesterday who you would have thought was delighted at this. However he’s expecting less work as he thinks rates will drop due to all the cleaning going on having a positive ( negative in his case) effect on the volume of normal flu, novovirus etc cases that supply him with customers.
Will be interesting to see.
I was trying to make that point, TT, but didn't choose my words very precisely.
Maybe should have said: a lockdown will have maximum effect if you implement it before the virus becomes widespread, but you can still have one anyway once it has, but it won't be as effective.Btw, Gav, the point about all these measures is that for them to actually be effective, you have to implement them before you think you need to. By the time you shut the stable door the horse has bolted.
I think thats probably Gavs point.....
I think Gav is saying that he wouldn't bother having any sort of lockdown unless things were quite dire, and my point is that Gav is wrong. My point is that the lockdown would be most effective if it was implemented early (maybe not now, but certainly earlier rather than later), at a time when folk like Gav would be saying "what's the point?".
I'm not just agreeing with Jeremy Hunt on concerns on slow government action. For the first time I am seriously worried about the honesty of their data. The big headline is we are 4 weeks behind Italy but if you look at the Italian data we are at Feb 26th in terms of deaths and cases. Where is the extra two weeks coming from?Could they be waiting for things to be proportionally similar?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
Holes in that reasoning?
Holes in that reasoning?
That you can selectively control transmission rates in the two populations.
Holes in that reasoning?
That you can selectively control transmission rates in the two populations.
Holes in that reasoning?
That the data suggests the risks of serious illness in much younger (than 60) victims is quite a bit greater than you seem to imagine?
Holes in that reasoning?
That the data suggests the risks of serious illness in much younger (than 60) victims is quite a bit greater than you seem to imagine?
What does it 'seem' to you that I imagine? And what data?
I'm going off these figures for the most 'at risk' groups:
(https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/03/Coronavirus-CFR-by-age-in-China-1-800x526.png)
and
(https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/03/Coronavirus-CFR-by-health-condition-in-China.png)
I agree with that and am aware. But there is clear and obvious correlation with # fatalities and # serious illness. So drop the at high risk group to 'over 50'. The logic remains the same that you can divide the population into two quite distinct groups: 1. at high risk of serious illness 2. at low risk of serious illness.
And given the two goals are to 1.minimise fatalities and 2.minimise economic damage
..
to achieve maximum effect in both goals, you could (and should?) treat the two groups very differently.
I'm open to why that's wrong.
So everyone taking better care of their hygiene and washing hands is great, it will reduce the prevalence of other illnesses. Keep doing it for sure...
However, someone with better knowledge can correct me if I am wrong but the main way of getting the virus is inhaling it... Not shaking hands etc... is great but if you’re breathing the same air as someone who has the virus that’s how you will catch it.
Is Shark 60 yet? 😃
I’m no Boris fan boi and I disagree with Pete completely with regards to Brexit. But on this I think Pete is closer to the ‘best’ option than the idea of immediate lockdown.
Offwidth. The extra weeks are because our cases have not accelerated as fast as Italy in the early stages. Our curve isn’t as steep.
I listened to the statement/press conference for quite a while. BJ is just a front man. But the CMO and CSO were open with their reasons - and there was no attempt to shy away from any interviewers questions etc...
Didn’t mean to endorse either approach - was just reflecting what was said in the press conference. They were also asked why thru didn’t ramp up measures like other countries etc..
I know that one premier league player and a manager are confirmed positive after testing and would have thought that their hygiene levels as professional sports people were better than the population at large
The reason we're not shutting down like other countries is that they are trying to stop the virus spreading (as seems to have been successful in China and a couple of other countries) whereas we are only trying to slow it down. China seems to have almost completely stopped transmission (18 new cases yesterday) with something like 0.02% of the population having been infected.
The UK's plan, somewhat bafflingly, assumes that we cannot stop the virus, and that at least 60% of the population need to catch it to get herd immunity (not that there's any real evidence that immunity necessarily follows infection so far as I can find). The plan is only to flatten out and delay the peak to reduce NHS stress. Sir Vallance, the CMO, has said as much.
Clearly if the gov is wrong on that front, every other developed country in the world may get on top of this, whilst we are still shrugging our shoulders in the middle of summer saying mass infection is unavoidable (and presumably either being banned from travelling internationally or reigniting chains of transmission).
Holes in that reasoning?I think the biggest obstacle would be that the two populations are not separable.
Because the vast majority of “senior management” and “executive” control of of economic institutions, companies and corporations (or to put it another way, the people who actually run things) are square in the at risk of serious illness categories.I don't think senior management and executive positions are much of a concern. They can nearly all do their jobs remotely anyway so a lockdown should have a relatively low impact on them.
They don’t even need to be hospitalised. Knock these people on their backs for 4-6 weeks and add in a “poorly” chunk of 35-50 year old middle management and a whole bunch of “sub par” reduced performance 25-35 year olds; and watch the economic drag that creates.
Conversely that is likely to be the sign that UK have estimated it correctly - a longer duration lasting well into mid-summer, with consistently high, but not overwhelming, hospitalisations, is the outcome we're aiming for. Whether it works or not we'll see.
I think the reality hasn't sunk in yet among the public that we're looking at 3-4 months at least of high levels of illness, not a few weeks of lock down and then come out and it's on the decline. We're on a lengthy upslope, perhaps people have been distracted by Italy thinking they've peaked but they haven't, they're still on the uptrend too. I can see the sense in the concept longer term approach and not moving too soon.
It's emerging that China had its first case in November... peaked in February.
Noticed the LSE just banned short-selling of Italian and Spanish stocks Ru ;D
I'll be surprised if it's over in China. The end of the beginning perhaps.
As a comparison, China has had approx 3,200 deaths and is down to about 8-10 a day. Its population is 20x bigger than ours. If we have a 60% infection rate, with 1% mortality, that would equate to 5 million deaths, minimum. As outcomes go, the government is aiming at a situation that is 30,000 times worse, in terms of mortality (if I've done my sums correctly and when corrected for the population), than China seems to have achieved. Intentionally aiming at a mortality rate 30,000 times greater than has been achieved elsewhere needs some significant justification in my mind.
I'll be surprised if it's over in China. The end of the beginning perhaps.
... 1.58m "hospitalisations" (which in itself is bloody scary as there aren't anywhere near that number of CC bed spaces...)
Assuming that the current 10 deaths in 562 cases is a fair indicator of UK mortality rate:
Everyone keeps asking why we are not shutting schools like everyone else but most contrived have not done so. France Spain Germany holland etc all have schools open. Only italy Austria Ireland and denmark have.
UK policy is not miles behind every other country as is being suggested. This thing is changing by the hour as will our policy.
My doctor girlfriend was baffled this morning at the repeated mentions of herd immunity in the news as there is no evidence in the public domain that infection and subsequent recovery provides immunity.
... 1.58m "hospitalisations" (which in itself is bloody scary as there aren't anywhere near that number of CC bed spaces...)
Assuming that the current 10 deaths in 562 cases is a fair indicator of UK mortality rate:
I think the first line invalidates the assumption in the second line.
I have different maths to both of you... Ally you multiplied mortality rate (10/562 = 1.78%) by hospitalisations, why not by 39.6m cases? That would give ~700k deaths...
Everyone keeps asking why we are not shutting schools like everyone else but most contrived have not done so. France Spain Germany holland etc all have schools open. Only italy Austria Ireland and denmark have.
UK policy is not miles behind every other country as is being suggested. This thing is changing by the hour as will our policy.
Immunity after getting a virus well documented. Corona-virus is no different (https://www.popsci.com/story/health/coronavirus-covid-19-faq-transmission/) we'd be seriously fucked if it were.
Immunity after getting a virus well documented. Corona-virus is no different (https://www.popsci.com/story/health/coronavirus-covid-19-faq-transmission/) we'd be seriously fucked if it were.
Everyone keeps asking why we are not shutting schools like everyone else but most contrived have not done so. France Spain Germany holland etc all have schools open. Only italy Austria Ireland and denmark have.
UK policy is not miles behind every other country as is being suggested. This thing is changing by the hour as will our policy.
Austria not on full lockdown of schools as of yet. They will close schools next week, but apparently the kids whose parents work in vital services/cant be looked after at home will still attend.
Immunity after getting a virus well documented. Corona-virus is no different (https://www.popsci.com/story/health/coronavirus-covid-19-faq-transmission/) we'd be seriously fucked if it were.
That was my understanding too; but as far as I can see we don't know it for certain. I'm confident my girlfriend is aware of how immunity works (you would hope so!) so I am being led by her to a certain extent; thought it was quite striking how baffled she was by the notion, but perhaps thats just an overly cautious view.
Immunity after getting a virus well documented. Corona-virus is no different (https://www.popsci.com/story/health/coronavirus-covid-19-faq-transmission/) we'd be seriously fucked if it were.
Jury seems to be out. There are reports of reinfection from Covid-19 but these might be due to false negative tests. This is from Goldman's Cecil Medicine textbook: "Previous infection does not induce high levels of protective immunity. Humans can be reinfected with respiratory coronaviruses throughout life, and human volunteers can be symptomatically reinfected with the same strain of coronavirus 1 year after the first infection."
The stats available do not have the "granularity" to draw better conclusion from. As much as Boris is shit at explaining what the plan is, PHE and the DOH seem to be doing an ok job. Epidemiologists don't seem to agree on an approach so expecting there to be "one true vision" is hopeless. I don't think the public would buy into a full on lockdown now.
I'll be surprised if it's over in China. The end of the beginning perhaps.
I love your positivity.
I guess it could end up being a load of kids with coconut shells and it was all in vain.....
I'd summarise that quote as - you can get flu more than once, the vaccine (or developed immunity) lasts a year so get it every year.
It's how the flu vaccine works and how a developed coronavirus vaccine would work.
I'd summarise that quote as - you can get flu more than once, the vaccine (or developed immunity) lasts a year so get it every year.
I'd summarise that quote as - you can get flu more than once, the vaccine (or developed immunity) lasts a year so get it every year.
I'm not sure how you get that summary. It's a quote about coronaviruses, not flu vaccines.
Flu and Corona (and common cold) are both viruses. They behave in the same way. I think it sounds quite scary to say you can get corona-virus multiple times and if you have immunity it only last a year. But saying the same about flu doesn't seem so bad because we know it to be the case and we live with it every year.
I have a cunning plan.
In theory you could isolate all the people in high-risk groups and their carers, whilst deliberately infecting all the people in low-risk groups. Those infected wouldn't have to be isolated and could even go to work if they felt up to it.
There's bound to be a few selfish types who would refuse deliberate infection. They would just have to sit it out with the high-risk group. 2 to 3 weeks down the line and we're all done and dusted.
I admit you may struggle to get this past the ethics committee. :goodidea:
Flu and Corona (and common cold) are both viruses. They behave in the same way. I think it sounds quite scary to say you can get corona-virus multiple times and if you have immunity it only last a year. But saying the same about flu doesn't seem so bad because we know it to be the case and we live with it every year.
Flu and Corona (and common cold) are both viruses. They behave in the same way. I think it sounds quite scary to say you can get corona-virus multiple times and if you have immunity it only last a year. But saying the same about flu doesn't seem so bad because we know it to be the case and we live with it every year.
The quote doesn't say that immunity only lasts a year, it says that people with other corona viruses have been purposely, successfully and symptomatically reinfected after a year. A straight reading of the quote does not imply that that re-infection could not have occurred earlier or that there was any immunity developed prior to reinfection.
The situation is different to flu, because Covid-19 is many times worse in terms of mortality and morbidity (I note very little is being said about survivors that are left with significant lung and other organ damage) and because the whole point of the government strategy is an assumption that immunity is developed so that widespread infection is desirable. The point of the quote was to question the basis of that assumption.
The best studied of the non-SARS coronaviruses, human coronaviruses 229E and OC43, cause respiratory symptoms, such as rhinorrhea, nasal congestion, sore throat, and cough, as well as systemic symptoms, including fever, headache, and malaise, when they are inoculated intranasally in adult volunteers. Symptoms develop 2 to 4 days after inoculation, but about 30% of the volunteers who excrete virus had no associated illness. Symptoms usually persist for about 1 week but sometimes for as long as 3 weeks. Previous infection does not induce high levels of protective immunity. Humans can be reinfected with respiratory coronaviruses throughout life, and human volunteers can be symptomatically reinfected with the same strain of coronavirus 1 year after the first infection.
Sounds quite scary right, as you are pointing out?
human coronaviruses 229E and OC43 are type of the common cold. Now doesn't sound quite as scary. Which is my point - that it's easy to make this sound scary.
But I get your point, which I missed before. There are types of coronavirus that once you've had don't induce "high levels of protective immunity". I guess my next question is what does "high levels" mean?
Most UK cases are ongoing, the individual has neither died or recovered. The average time between onset of symptoms and death is about 17 day, so death figures will always be lagging behind eventual totals.
On a side note younger healthier folk take longer to succumb, so we wont know the true age spread of fatality in the UK for a good while yet.
I'm not sure if 'optimist' is the best descriptor of saying death rate is 1% of a massive number. Better that than 2% though!
He was saying that while testing is going on at hospitals, due to time it takes to get kitted out in protection for the swabbers, they can do 12 a day max.
From what I've just seen (not completely verified but I think it's true) Denmark is closing its borders tomorrow.
I’m a clueless cunt but this ‘herd immunity’ strategy seems like one hell of a gamble that’s gonna cause a lot of deaths. The Italians are saying they wish they’d locked down earlier. China are getting on top of it with draconian measures yet we’re the only country conducting what pretty much amounts to an experiment with very high stakes. I hope they’ve got it right for the sake of the vulnerable (including my mum). Disclaimer : I’m a clueless cunt
I’m a clueless cunt but this ‘herd immunity’ strategy seems like one hell of a gamble that’s gonna cause a lot of deaths. The Italians are saying they wish they’d locked down earlier. China are getting on top of it with draconian measures yet we’re the only country conducting what pretty much amounts to an experiment with very high stakes. I hope they’ve got it right for the sake of the vulnerable (including my mum). Disclaimer : I’m a clueless cunt.
Anyone got a link for some decent (regularly updated) graphics/graphs sites? The ones I’ve got bookmarked never upstate.
Political point-scoring probably the worst thing anyone can do right now, it erodes confidence and encourages panic.
What’s becoming clearer as the days progress is a lack of leadership across Europe. With a virus that respects no boundaries or social groups some leadership pan Europe was what was needed here (let’s forget the EU/Brexit shit for a min). Could the country leaders get together and come up with a plan together?
The South Korean CDC reported a total of 7,979 confirmed COVID-19 cases, including 67 deaths. Epidemiological links have been identified for 79.8% of cases. The most recent report provides an updated breakdown of cases by region, sex, and age group, providing additional insight into the ongoing epidemic. Females represent 61.9% of cases but only 41.8% of deaths. The unadjusted case fatality ratio for individuals aged 80 years and older is 8.30% (21 deaths out of 253 cases), and it is 4.74% for those 70-79 years old and 1.42% for those 60-69 years old. For cases under the age of 60, the case fatality ratio is only 0.12%. Notably, there have been only 2 deaths below the age of 50, despite 4,712 confirmed cases.
Some of the media making out the ban on public gathering is a 'U-turn' in policy. For anyone with eyes and a working brain it's obviously been coming, as are other much more drastic measures coming, how can that be a u-turn? We're on a path towards all sorts of drastic policies, just because a policy hasn't been announced yet does not mean it isn't intended to be enacted at a relevant point in time. Political point-scoring probably the worst thing anyone can do right now, it erodes confidence and encourages panic.
Bit of perspective.. Singapore...That is a low figure for under 60s, but I wonder how much it takes into account the fact that as cases ramp up the early fatalities will be inevitably be the frailest sufferers. In China the average time from first symptoms to deaths was around 17 days, which will include the weakest dying sooner and the strongest surviving for longer.QuoteThe South Korean CDC reported a total of 7,979 confirmed COVID-19 cases, including 67 deaths. Epidemiological links have been identified for 79.8% of cases. The most recent report provides an updated breakdown of cases by region, sex, and age group, providing additional insight into the ongoing epidemic. Females represent 61.9% of cases but only 41.8% of deaths. The unadjusted case fatality ratio for individuals aged 80 years and older is 8.30% (21 deaths out of 253 cases), and it is 4.74% for those 70-79 years old and 1.42% for those 60-69 years old. For cases under the age of 60, the case fatality ratio is only 0.12%. Notably, there have been only 2 deaths below the age of 50, despite 4,712 confirmed cases.
Political point-scoring probably the worst thing anyone can do right now, it erodes confidence and encourages panic.
Totally agree. Prof. Ian Donald on Twitter has a thread on the governments policy that is worth a read.
Totally agree. Prof. Ian Donald on Twitter has a thread on the governments policy that is worth a read.
Tweet 5 in that thread seems to rely on immunity following infection which I thought was still currently unproven?
https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518378039574528?s=19
Man, imagine being in Font and unable to get pastries...end of the world!Was about to say the same.. Going out bouldering on your own has to be a pretty safe activity, stay away from other people, if you’re really worried about picking it up off the rock, wash your hands after. The places I boulder locally are unlikely to have seen any traffic and get rinsed by the ocean twice a day. I was thinking if we go on full shutdown that this is one activity I can do with little risk of spreading virus. I don’t think being locked indoors full time with the family will be good for mental or physical health. I will certainly take the chidlers outdoors to remote places nearby where I know we can avoid contact with others.
I'd enjoy it while you can eastside, my working assumption is that climbing outside is actually the sort of activity one could quite safely carry on almost regardless of how bad it gets (and presuming you aren't yourself infected). If you're out in the open air and away from other people then surely you're quite a lot safer (both in terms of potentially catching it yourself and in infecting others if you're a carrier) than being at work/in the pub/in a climbing gym/etc. Anyone any thoughts on this?
Man, imagine being in Font and unable to get pastries...end of the world!Was about to say the same.. Going out bouldering on your own has to be a pretty safe activity, stay away from other people, if you’re really worried about picking it up off the rock, wash your hands after. The places I boulder locally are unlikely to have seen any traffic and get rinsed by the ocean twice a day. I was thinking if we go on full shutdown that this is one activity I can do with little risk of spreading virus. I don’t think being locked indoors full time with the family will be good for mental or physical health. I will certainly take the chidlers outdoors to remote places nearby where I know we can avoid contact with others.
I'd enjoy it while you can eastside, my working assumption is that climbing outside is actually the sort of activity one could quite safely carry on almost regardless of how bad it gets (and presuming you aren't yourself infected). If you're out in the open air and away from other people then surely you're quite a lot safer (both in terms of potentially catching it yourself and in infecting others if you're a carrier) than being at work/in the pub/in a climbing gym/etc. Anyone any thoughts on this?
UK testing is focusing on those in hospital not in the wider community.
"Will I be tested if I think I have COVID-19?
We will not be testing those self-isolating with mild symptoms."
- https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance/stay-at-home-guidance-for-people-with-confirmed-or-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection
I've heard this isn't the case with other countries (Germany?) so comparing confirmed cases per population isn't a helpful measure.
Encourage construction of realistic and detailed local plans for containment in the source country. (This is different to attempting to contain the virus once it is widespread which has little chance of success, see section 3.3).
b. Low-level restrictions in international travel (e.g. less than 70% of journeys) would have a minimal impact (Mateus et al. 2014). Even relatively high levels of travel restrictions would only delay an epidemic for a few weeks. For instance, imposing a 90% restriction on all air travel to the UK would delay the peak of a pandemic wave by only 1 to 4 weeks (Cooper et al. 2006, Mateus et al. 2014). A 99.9% travel restriction might delay a pandemic wave by 2 months (Cooper et al. 2006, Ferguson et al. 2006).
...
f. If restrictions on travel from all countries which had epidemics of pandemic flu were put in place internationally, the effect could be somewhat greater: a 90% reduction might delay the spread by 3 to 4 weeks and a 99.9% effective ban by 3 to 4
months (Cooper et al. 2006). If the UK has cases early in the pandemic, then this would involve travel restrictions out of the UK.
h. While clearly possible in principle, for all practical levels of restriction, there is little chance of a country missing the pandemic altogether due to travel restrictions (Cooper et al. 2006).
c. Because of the probable multiple importations of pandemic flu, and the concentration of the population in cities, attempts at containment (similar to those explained in section 3.1b above) by antiviral prophylaxis and practical social distance measures are almost certain to fail (Ferguson et al. 2006, Nguyen-VanTam et al. 2004).
d. Even very substantial reductions in internal travel between localities (of say ~90%) would have little effect on the length and peak size of the epidemic in each local area. However, coupled with the elimination of international travel, they could spread out a national epidemic by desynchronising the epidemics in the local areas (Mateus et al. 2014, and refs therein). Such restrictions are probably impractical. More realistic reductions in such travel would have a negligible effect on the national epidemic (HPA 2005)
[Arlene Foster: Schools will not be closed immediately but schools and parent should prepare because when they do they will close "for at least 16 weeks"/quote]
That multiplication idea is very approximate (it will strongly depend on test rates for instance) and will only work on the initial exponential rise... I suspect italy are moving beyond that now...keep an eye on the logarithmic graph on deaths on worldometer over the next week and see if their measures are kicking in. You can already see how their initial lack of response gave a faster exponential rise. Other places are also on top of testing, like Singapore. The US is where I worry most about a western economy with coronavirus out of control, due to lack of testing.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-washington-state-us-outbreak
Encourage construction of realistic and detailed local plans for containment in the source country. (This is different to attempting to contain the virus once it is widespread which has little chance of success, see section 3.3).
b. Low-level restrictions in international travel (e.g. less than 70% of journeys) would have a minimal impact (Mateus et al. 2014). Even relatively high levels of travel restrictions would only delay an epidemic for a few weeks. For instance, imposing a 90% restriction on all air travel to the UK would delay the peak of a pandemic wave by only 1 to 4 weeks (Cooper et al. 2006, Mateus et al. 2014). A 99.9% travel restriction might delay a pandemic wave by 2 months (Cooper et al. 2006, Ferguson et al. 2006).
...
f. If restrictions on travel from all countries which had epidemics of pandemic flu were put in place internationally, the effect could be somewhat greater: a 90% reduction might delay the spread by 3 to 4 weeks and a 99.9% effective ban by 3 to 4
months (Cooper et al. 2006). If the UK has cases early in the pandemic, then this would involve travel restrictions out of the UK.
h. While clearly possible in principle, for all practical levels of restriction, there is little chance of a country missing the pandemic altogether due to travel restrictions (Cooper et al. 2006).
c. Because of the probable multiple importations of pandemic flu, and the concentration of the population in cities, attempts at containment (similar to those explained in section 3.1b above) by antiviral prophylaxis and practical social distance measures are almost certain to fail (Ferguson et al. 2006, Nguyen-VanTam et al. 2004).
d. Even very substantial reductions in internal travel between localities (of say ~90%) would have little effect on the length and peak size of the epidemic in each local area. However, coupled with the elimination of international travel, they could spread out a national epidemic by desynchronising the epidemics in the local areas (Mateus et al. 2014, and refs therein). Such restrictions are probably impractical.More realistic reductions in such travel would have a negligible effect on the national epidemic (HPA 2005)
d) On the other hand, if there were significant background immunity amongst adults there may be a more considerable impact on the pandemic. For example, in the UK in the 2009 pandemic, school holidays (possibly in combination with general summer holidays) suppressed the epidemic over August (Eames et al. 2012). However, to be used successfully as a suppression strategy, closures would need to be maintained until pandemic specific vaccines were available.
e) School closure is therefore most usefully employed if children are particularly badly affected, or if there is known to be significant background immunity in adults.
j) Little direct evidence is available on the effects of cancelling large public events. However, the results might be expected to be similar to those for closing schools, albeit on a considerably more limited scale. Some benefit might be expected for those who would have otherwise attended the events but very little for the overall community. Some benefit might also be expected from the reduction in travel to such events. However, the benefits of even major reductions in all travel are small.
k) Voluntary home isolation, i.e. people staying at home if they show ‘flu like’ symptoms, will decrease the number of contacts between infected and uninfected individuals, and hence is likely to decrease the spread of infection.
The combined effects of various social distancing measures (including closing schools, cancelling large public events, closing places of entertainment, and home isolation) if started very early on in a locality affected by influenza may have
a significant impact on reducing transmission. In some US cities in the 1918 to 19 pandemic it is thought that the combined measures reduced R to less than 1 (from an R0 value of 1.4 to 2) however such measures would need to be maintained until sufficient quantities of pandemic specific vaccine became available. In the US cities, when the measures were relaxed there was a second wave of infection.
While there is a role for the less disruptive social distance measures such as voluntary home isolation in any pandemic, school closures and the cancelling of public events are generally only justified in very severe pandemics because of their severe social impact over an extended period of time until a pandemic specific vaccine becomes available.
Implications to me of that is:
this may be the big one that happens once every few generations,
there will be more than one wave,
we probably need a vaccine,
and trying a 'probably impractical' measure might be worth a go to reduce the short-term death toll and resultant health service fall-out, but is unlikely to reduce the death toll over the longer-term.
I think my real concern is that there is logic to this, but not because of NHS loading, but because of loading on other services and panic if people start dying in their homes in great numbers.
TBF, Pete, you can't expect evidence to get in the way of Steve wanting to see the fault in everything the Conservative government does.
Similarly, I mentioned to a doctor friend how surprising it was that Jeremy Hunt, ex cabinet and current chair of the health select committee, was so insubordinate in criticising the government response. All he could do was go into a diatribe of how Jeremy Hunt knows nothing. Almost as if Jeremy Hunt saying the sky was blue would somehow make that not true.
The bit I don't understand is the "flattening the curve" part.
Had to happen...
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/14/donald-trump-confirms-coronavirus-test-12398469/?ico=pushly-notifcation-small&utm_source=pushly
The bit I don't understand is the "flattening the curve" part.
There are three ways in which flattening the curve will decrease the total number of fatalities.
1. Given a constant capacity to deliver critical care, a flatter curve will result in fewer fatalities as the critical cases will be spread out in time and more of them will actually receive critical care rather than dying at home as some of the earlier cases will have either recovered or died, freeing up the resource for later cases.
2. Critical care capacity can be expanded, albeit slowly, so a flatter curve means a greater proportion further along in time when there is a higher capacity.
3. Possibly most importantly: Given that vaccine development is likely to happen at some point in the future, the flatter the curve the greater proportion of the population will make it to the advent of the vaccine before falling ill.
I get that, but I'm skeptical that it can work in a healthcare system like the NHS which is pretty much at capacity before the outbreak starts.
Yeah just read that bed occupancy was already at 95% in December. Still 5% is worth more spread over time than it is at any one instant.
Offwidth I see no evidence for a 'U-turn' and no amount of you repeating it makes it any more true.
Just got an email saying all face to face teaching cancelled at Liverpool University. I suspect the rest will follow suit very soon.
Not at all surprised. I've been working from home this week (as I suspect many other staff have) and the rumours have been floating around every time I talk to a colleague on Skype.
Font in the time of Coronavirus:
Yeah just read that bed occupancy was already at 95% in December. Still 5% is worth more spread over time than it is at any one instant.
We have, apparently, 4k ICU beds at 95% capacity, that's 200 free. Estimated 40m cases, so 4m people need ICU if 10% cases are critical. Flattening the curve isn't going to dint that number of people needing critical care. I appreciate that more beds can be added but it's still going to make little difference as the disparity is so great.
I'm not saying there's no other reason to do it, just that the government is not being transparent in it's reasoning or modelling.
Font in the time of Coronavirus:
I was supposed to be heading to Bishop for the first 3 weeks of April :(. Now that's not happening I was thinking today about how reckless it would be to just drop everything and head to Font ASAP. The temptation is real.
I openly admit I was wrong there, however, I can't assess what is not public and its a real shame this advice wasn't released ages ago to recieve proper peer review.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/
:o
It seems to my punter mind that in this circumstance you can break the population into two important distinct groups:
1. at high risk of becoming seriously ill. (age group 60+)
2. at low risk of becoming seriously ill. (age group under 60)
Assuming you want to save the maximum number of lives whilst aiming for the minimum economic impact, then wouldn't the most rational thing to do be to impose an extremely draconian isolation measure - enforced by martial law if necessary - on the group at high risk of becoming seriously ill. That would lower the spike of severely ill. And it's fortunate that the most vulnerable group are also economically the least productive (I'm guessing?), so enforcing isolation on this group is less economically damaging than it would be for isolation of age group 18-60.
Allow the group at low risk of becoming seriously ill to continue to go about their daily business.
Holes in that reasoning?
.... The logic remains the same that you can divide the population into two quite distinct groups: 1. at high risk of serious illness 2. at low risk of serious illness.
And given the two goals are to 1.minimise fatalities (and burden on health service) and 2.minimise economic damage
..
to achieve maximum effect in both goals, you could (and should?) treat the two groups very differently.
I'm open to why that's wrong.
Does anyone know any decent epidemiology forums, because I’ve got some really urgent questions about AnCap protocols...
Have you considered applying for that job Cummings advertised Pete?
Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson’s chief adviser, has set the tone for a radical shake-up of Whitehall by inviting “data scientists, project managers, policy experts and assorted weirdos” to apply for Downing Street jobs.
In perhaps the most unusual government job advert ever seen, Mr Cummings invites applications from “true wild cards, artists, people who never went to university and fought their way out of an appalling hell hole”.
He added: “If you want to figure out what characters around Putin might do, or how international criminal gangs might exploit holes in our border security, you don’t want more Oxbridge English graduates who chat about Lacan at dinner parties with TV producers and spread fake news about fake news.”
In exchange, he offers the prospect of long hours and zero job security: “I’ll bin you within weeks if you don’t fit — don’t complain later because I made it clear now,” he wrote on his own personal blog.
Mr Cummings wants to transform Whitehall, synonymous with cautious officialdom, into a dynamic organisation informed by science, data analysis and maverick freethinkers.
He tells “public school bluffers” not to apply for a year-long assignment as his own personal assistant, promising that the job will involve interesting work alongside “uninteresting trivia that makes my life easier which you won’t enjoy”.
The former director of the Vote Leave campaign stressed the long hours, saying: “You will not have weekday date nights, you will sacrifice many weekends. Frankly it will be hard having a boy/girlfriend at all.”
Mr Cummings admitted that some of the Whitehall old guard would have fears about his proposals — “some reasonable, most unreasonable” — but insisted that many officials, particularly younger ones, were ready to embrace change.
His blog enthused about the frontiers of the science of prediction, AI and cognitive technologies, and “the selection, education and training of people for high performance”.
He said: “In many aspects of government, as in the tech world and investing, brains and temperament smash experience and seniority out of the park.”
Mr Cummings’s principal interest is in applying mathematics and science to political problems, and his blog has invited high-achievers from the world’s great universities to apply for jobs at the heart of Mr Johnson’s Downing Street operation.
He suggested, by way of example, that they should consider a paper in the journal Nature — “Early warning signals for critical transitions in a thermoacoustic system” — which looks at systems in physics that could be used to warn of epidemics or financial meltdowns.
The chief adviser, who is positioned at the heart of a powerful new Downing Street machine, is also on the lookout for project managers and innovative communications experts.
His blog suggested Mr Johnson’s government would be willing to expand the number of paid political appointments (special advisers or “spads”) to oversee this new approach.
“We want to hire an unusual set of people with different skills and backgrounds to work in Downing Street with the best officials, some as spads and perhaps some as officials,” he said.
Although the blog is aimed at recruiting outsiders into Number 10, Mr Cummings said there were “many brilliant people in the civil service and politics” and invited them to apply too.
Font in the time of Coronavirus:
I was supposed to be heading to Bishop for the first 3 weeks of April :(. Now that's not happening I was thinking today about how reckless it would be to just drop everything and head to Font ASAP. The temptation is real.
Yeah man sorry for the travel ban, I don't think it's going to help anything. Also not sure it would hurt to come out to font but it may lock down for real soon, sort of halfway there already though you can still go to the boulders.
Got to admit it made me chuckle. Be more fun working for Cummings than my current mediocre and cynical cunt of a director. (love you really xx)
I hear spunkgoat got the job and Fiend is his SPAD.
Spain seems to be in full lock down. I'm about to set of for France but just having breakfast in the car park at albarracin.
Police came and told everyone to not climb and isolate themselves in the van for 15 days. They told me it's fine to drive to France though.
Spain seems to be in full lock down. I'm about to set of for France but just having breakfast in the car park at albarracin.
Police came and told everyone to not climb and isolate themselves in the van for 15 days. They told me it's fine to drive to France though.
What part of the government's reasoning or modelling do you not think is being relayed transparently Ru? Genuinely interested.
My take is the transparency is there...
I think they're currently wisely unwilling to state the complete most probable truth in plain language for fear of panicking people, and tipping into other social disorder problems right at a point that would make the situation worse.
I openly admit I was wrong there, however, I can't assess what is not public and its a real shame this advice wasn't released ages ago to recieve proper peer review.
The paper Pete is quoting from was released in 2013.
I actually thought Hancock made sense this morning on Mar. At several points I wanted to throttle Mar or, at least, scream “shut up and let him speak!”
Well scratch what I said about Font being quiet, just rolled past cuvier parking and it was full, fuck that. Back at the gite with the top secret book trying to find a nice obscure locale for the day.Apremont's nice.
Also folks out everywhere bicycling, walking, convening. Not much social distancing in evidence which is a bit ominous
Well scratch what I said about Font being quiet, just rolled past cuvier parking and it was full, fuck that. Back at the gite with the top secret book trying to find a nice obscure locale for the day.
Also folks out everywhere bicycling, walking, convening. Not much social distancing in evidence which is a bit ominous
Well scratch what I said about Font being quiet, just rolled past cuvier parking and it was full, fuck that. Back at the gite with the top secret book trying to find a nice obscure locale for the day.
Also folks out everywhere bicycling, walking, convening. Not much social distancing in evidence which is a bit ominous
Well scratch what I said about Font being quiet, just rolled past cuvier parking and it was full, fuck that. Back at the gite with the top secret book trying to find a nice obscure locale for the day.
Also folks out everywhere bicycling, walking, convening. Not much social distancing in evidence which is a bit ominous
What part of the government's reasoning or modelling do you not think is being relayed transparently Ru? Genuinely interested.
My take is the transparency is there...
I think they're currently wisely unwilling to state the complete most probable truth in plain language for fear of panicking people, and tipping into other social disorder problems right at a point that would make the situation worse.
They can't be transparent AND unwilling the state the truth in plain language, even if it is being done for a sensible reason.
Another example: two days ago herd immunity was an aim, today the department of health says it's a nice side effect if it happens, but has never been an aim.
Chief Scientific advisor: “Our aim is to try to reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely; also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it....About 60 per cent is the sort of figure you need to get herd immunity.”
Matt Hancock: ""Herd immunity is not a part of it. That is a scientific concept, not a goal or a strategy. Our goal is to protect life from this virus, our strategy is to protect the most vulnerable and protect the NHS through contain, delay, research and mitigate."
A further example: I have been involved, with my wife, in trying to plan how her GP practice will respond and deal with patients. There is virtually zero information on what the government plan is, whether they will be expected to deal with hospital overflow, the extent that they should deal with coronavirus patients etc. Hospital staff seem to be equally in the dark, including those doing the planning based upon what I have been told by a consultant anaesthetist.
None of that is transparent.
Whilst reducing panic in the general public is a wise aim, vagueness, contrary statements and statements that appear to be incorrect after a bit of mild scrutiny won't achieve that. The psychological health of those that will be dealing with the crisis is also important and just letting them guess what their role will be isn't a good idea.
That's an understandable point of view but I think you're letting *relatively* unimportant short-term details (I'm not suggesting they're not important) get in the way of what (to me) seems obvious.
The transparency is there if you want to see it I think, most people just don't want to fully understand it yet.
Coel has posted a link on the infection rates of the young in Korean data on the other channel.
https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1239041092978343937
Robert Durran also posted some nice educational visualisation
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?fbclid=IwAR1r02wIsrH8eY-KK2DPWJ3PCfX298Eo6EOBV795HeRJn4ODN54yUeOahvc
I openly admit I was wrong there, however, I can't assess what is not public and its a real shame this advice wasn't released ages ago to recieve proper peer review.
The paper Pete is quoting from was released in 2013.
You are seriously conflating my stated concerns about the sources of government advice now (leading to what I saw as a dangerous aim to build herd immunity) being open to peer critique alongside WHO advice, with one 2013 paper from one group involved in informing government?
Leaked govt report on predictions
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
300k dead..
Spain has closed some climbing areas. Can't quite understand why as I thought being outside was quite a good place to be. :shrug:
Leaked govt report on predictions
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
300k dead..
You've gone all Trump from intially accusing others of exaggerating how bad this will be, to doing it yourself.
Spain has closed some climbing areas. Can't quite understand why as I thought being outside was quite a good place to be. :shrug:
Ru, I was about to reply that you can't 'drip feed the medical professionals the whole truth' but keep it from the public as you suggest the government might do. They are one and the same thing, as this just proves.
Truth's out now, we can all prepare accordingly.
Ru, I was about to reply that you can't 'drip feed the medical professionals the whole truth' but keep it from the public as you suggest the government might do. They are one and the same thing, as this just proves.
Spain has closed some climbing areas. Can't quite understand why as I thought being outside was quite a good place to be. :shrug:
You've gone all Trump from intially accusing others of exaggerating how bad this will be, to doing it yourself.
Offwidth. I thought this was total bullshit when I read it. But just to confirm, I've scanned back through the last 23 pages of this thread and checked every one of my posts. There isn't a single post made by me accusing anyone of exaggerating how bad this will be. Take 15 minutes and look for yourself, and when you're done please come back to me and apologise for characterising me that way. Yet more unsubstantiated bullshitting from you.
BTW it wasn't me who smote you for endless Guardian links, that was TB..
My posts give my view, as matter-of-factly as I can, on what I see happening and what looks most likely to my non-expert, non-medical-profession mind based on a reading of the facts as they emerge, and attempting to put them in historical context.
That leaked report is pretty much what the facts were suggesting middle of this week. Unfortunately, each time I've been correct in my predictions of how this will play out. Today in the climbing wall and elsewhere, most I spoke to were still in some state of denial about the long-term outlook, but the truth was dawning. Things will change next week.
Offwidth. I thought this was total bullshit when I read it. But just to confirm, I've scanned back through the last 23 pages of this thread and checked every one of my posts. There isn't a single post made by me accusing anyone of exaggerating how bad this will be. Take 15 minutes and look for yourself, and when you're done please come back to me and apologise for characterising me that way. Yet more unsubstantiated bullshitting from you.
I find it DEEPLY ironic that we knew so much about this virus SO early because the Chinese scientists posted all their findings online/open access. From data about its spread to its sequencing. YET, our own government hide their data and their analysis (presuming they actually have any aside from back of fag packet scribbles) from the rest of the world. If we have a great way of dealing with things - why are we not sharing this with everyone else? This alone leads me to believe our decision is basically interpretation (e.g. oppinion) rather than numbers.
Not sharing our science findings is really shit.
Its nearly as shit as trying to buy out a vaccine company to ensure US exclusivity.
Not quite as wanky - but on the same page of shit things to do during a global pandemic.
Because they're not being shared - it makes me think its because they are
(a) crap and too embarassed to share or
(b) don't exist and are based on 'best professional judgement' which in my field is also called guessing.
Leaked govt report on predictions
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
300k dead..
And, let's see if they "socialise" the losses of the rich again...
Almost seems like they've read this thread...
UK government spent £500 billion bailing out the banks. Let's see how much they commit to helping us plebs get through this.
Pete, What about b & d, then d?
I.e. massive lock down now, to curb the initial exponential increase globally. Then, total lock-down for those "most at risk", to prevent infection and to slow the rate of infection. This will go on for months.
Pete, What about b & d, then d?
I.e. massive lock down now, to curb the initial exponential increase globally. Then, total lock-down for those "most at risk", to prevent infection and to slow the rate of infection. This will go on for months.
Once the initial surge is over, life should go on while still trying to maintain distance and being extremely cautious mixing with "at risk" people. That way the healthy get it, not all at once, but spread over months, and transmission to the "at risk" is minimised.
Part if me wants to get it now, then I'm free (as far as most scientist seem to think...) to get back to work (somewhat essential job in energy, but not really) and get on with helping people in need.
Yeah I've been wondering the same ref climbing, bouldering and mountain biking. Think it's very valid to ease off any activity that carries an elevated risk of minor injury.
You can dig into reasons why it would or wouldn't work, but that's my instinctive answer. Italy and other nations will be a test case to prove what works best I guess.
I've made a mental list of low balls.
Except that this is irrelevant or uniformed.
I got some fairly abrupt responses on a FB group for asking whether it was ok to go climbing in a pair by bike or on foot during the current lockdown we are having in Innsbruck.
PS anyone know why the Germans aren't dying?
PS anyone know why the Germans aren't dying?
They were ready for the Wurst case scenario.
Increasingly feeling like whatever the government say indoor climbing is not very socially responsible at the moment. Outdoors clearly better but still not brilliant.
The potential benefits of people doing things they enjoy/going outside if they are practising social distancing through the week have to be weighed up against the potential strain on healthcare services in the event of accidents and the potential to transmit the virus even while outside. To that end; my thoughts at the moment are to personally avoid indoor climbing in favour of fingerboarding, tentatively plan to continue outside climbing and avoid going to pubs this week. No doubt by tomorrow I'll have changed my mind of some of this but thats my current thoughts. Interested in other peoples.
Might as well close it down til it’s over and suspend all sponsorship deals. :o
It'll be interesting to see how the civil engineering industry copes. Some very large Contractors aren't in great shape currently and from what I'm seeing the industry is getting ready to make sites safe and essentially stop work.Can you direct me to where you see this. Having spoken to a lot of contacts in the construction industry this isnt the general consensus.
Increasingly feeling like whatever the government say indoor climbing is not very socially responsible at the moment. Outdoors clearly better but still not brilliant.
The potential benefits of people doing things they enjoy/going outside if they are practising social distancing through the week have to be weighed up against the potential strain on healthcare services in the event of accidents and the potential to transmit the virus even while outside. To that end; my thoughts at the moment are to personally avoid indoor climbing in favour of fingerboarding, tentatively plan to continue outside climbing and avoid going to pubs this week. No doubt by tomorrow I'll have changed my mind of some of this but thats my current thoughts. Interested in other peoples.
Sounds like the EU is closing it’s boarders to all but non-essential travel for 30 days...
Sounds like the EU is closing it’s boarders to all but non-essential travel for 30 days...
Remove the "but".
(from my face).
Which brings me to a related point - if and when the hospitals are overwhelmed, is it socially responsible to continue climbing?Had exactly these thoughts recently. My grit wish list includes a few things with a small risk of minor but hospitalisable injury and I am questioning whether this is the right season, even for as selfish a reason as "lower limb injuries would suck even more dick if the nation is on lockdown". Not that I need any excuse to pussy out.... I don't see a problem with climbing per se as a lot of risk can be mitigated even without resorting to doing laps on Zippy's, but now might be the time to start one's Lleyn Peninsula DWS career :blink:
Are you comfortable with the increased level of personal risk if there isn't a functioning A&E?
Are you comfortable with the thought that any treatment you might require will encroach on that required by Covid-19 sufferers?
Given the latest announcement - avoid all unnecessary social contact - then that’s it for climbing walls.All the walls in Denver have closed over the past week. Apparently the popular sport crags have been rammed...
I feel really sorry for wall owners and those working for them. Can’t see them being open tomorrow.
'NEW PREPRINT FINDINGS The second study describes the potential for re-infection in rhesus macaques who had been infected and recovered. The study reintroduced the SARS-CoV-2 virus to the macaques and found that none showed notable viral loads five days after the reintroduction. The researchers suggest that these findings provide evidence that initial SARS-CoV-2 infection could offer protective immunity for those re-exposed. The duration of that protection is not known.'
Given the latest announcement - avoid all unnecessary social contact - then that’s it for climbing walls.
I feel really sorry for wall owners and those working for them. Can’t see them being open tomorrow.
Be nice if the government do something to help those of us who can no longer earn money. Especially given the billions they spent bailing out the banks after the financial crash. Not holding my breath though.
Be nice if the government do something to help those of us who can no longer earn money. Especially given the billions they spent bailing out the banks after the financial crash. Not holding my breath though.
Yep, think this is time to seriously think about universal basic income. I’d personally welcome increased income tax in order to help the self employed and the soon to be unemployed not end up homeless.
Be nice if the government do something to help those of us who can no longer earn money. Especially given the billions they spent bailing out the banks after the financial crash. Not holding my breath though.
Brutus: Word on the street is Bilbao ferries are shut, but that's 2nd hand. Also given new announcement you and whole family should be in the house for 14 days
That announcement was a disgrace. Stopping short of banning pubs etc has the sole effect of giving insurance a reason not to pay out. People's lives and livelihoods are on the line and this government just cares about it's own bottom line. Compare and contrast with Macron just now unveiling massive economic support. Fucking nonsense.
Here in France, Macron although making sweeping initiatives has still left many questions. I guess understandable in such unprecedented times. However I can still go bouldering as long as I’m alone, which is what I usually do anyhow 🙂
Don’t be bringing none of dem nasty Euro viruses back into the Wez Cunry with eee!Brutus: Word on the street is Bilbao ferries are shut, but that's 2nd hand. Also given new announcement you and whole family should be in the house for 14 days
Really? Seems open to me sat here in my van......
Hi BrutusAt least it sounds like he’s making solid decisions, our government seems to not want to make any firm decisions.... Is driving your car in a racey fashion considered an individual sport??
Yea I don’t get that either, but Macron has threatened action against folk that ignore his directives. He has said individual sport is ok, so could cycle to the boulders, if I was fit enough 😉
Given the latest announcement - avoid all unnecessary social contact - then that’s it for climbing walls.
I feel really sorry for wall owners and those working for them. Can’t see them being open tomorrow.
I disagree. I think in the absence of a clear government directive to shut many of them will stay open and just preach 'wash hands, cardless payments, stay away if feeling unwell' etc. Business is business at the end of the day.
I really hope I'm proved wrong.
Given the latest announcement - avoid all unnecessary social contact - then that’s it for climbing walls.
I feel really sorry for wall owners and those working for them. Can’t see them being open tomorrow.
I disagree. I think in the absence of a clear government directive to shut many of them will stay open and just preach 'wash hands, cardless payments, stay away if feeling unwell' etc. Business is business at the end of the day.
I really hope I'm proved wrong.
All TCA centres are shut as of now. Difficult for them but probably the right call. Until this afternoon flashpoint in Bristol were still going ahead with a comp tomorrow! Thankfully that's cancelled now, but they're still open.
Here in France, Macron although making sweeping initiatives has still left many questions. I guess understandable in such unprecedented times. However I can still go bouldering as long as I’m alone, which is what I usually do anyhow 🙂
Edit, my wife says I’m wrong, because driving to the bouldering is ‘making an unnecessary journey’. Thank god for my woodie.
‘kin ell. This puts our government to shame, very impressive.Here in France, Macron although making sweeping initiatives has still left many questions. I guess understandable in such unprecedented times. However I can still go bouldering as long as I’m alone, which is what I usually do anyhow 🙂
Edit, my wife says I’m wrong, because driving to the bouldering is ‘making an unnecessary journey’. Thank god for my woodie.
Yes, you are quite wrong. What more, the President has given the police almost unlimited power to enforce this: at least that was how we interpreted the speech.
Here is a summary of the situation in France to the best of my understanding that I just wrote:
Starting tomorrow at noon, all travel except travelling alone for work or for shopping essentials is forbidden. Meeting friends and family is not allowed. The government will be responsible for the details, but the president warns that ”any violation of these rules will be sanctioned.” Taking a breather/jog is allowed. Alone.
The borders to non-Schengen countries are closed.
No business, no matter how small, is allowed to go bust: for this the president has pledged 300 billion in credits. Rent, electricity, water and gas-bills will be suspended for small and medium enterprises in difficulties. All workers are guaranteed pay.
The resources of the country will be geared to the medical staff. A system of child care for medical workers will be put in place, and they can requisition hotels or taxis at the government's expense.
Here in France, Macron although making sweeping initiatives has still left many questions. I guess understandable in such unprecedented times. However I can still go bouldering as long as I’m alone, which is what I usually do anyhow 🙂
Edit, my wife says I’m wrong, because driving to the bouldering is ‘making an unnecessary journey’. Thank god for my woodie.
Yes, you are quite wrong. What more, the President has given the police almost unlimited power to enforce this: at least that was how we interpreted the speech.
Here is a summary of the situation in France to the best of my understanding that I just wrote:
Starting tomorrow at noon, all travel except travelling alone for work or for shopping essentials is forbidden. Meeting friends and family is not allowed. The government will be responsible for the details, but the president warns that ”any violation of these rules will be sanctioned.” Taking a breather/jog is allowed. Alone.
The borders to non-Schengen countries are closed.
No business, no matter how small, is allowed to go bust: for this the president has pledged 300 billion in credits. Rent, electricity, water and gas-bills will be suspended for small and medium enterprises in difficulties. All workers are guaranteed pay.
The resources of the country will be geared to the medical staff. A system of child care for medical workers will be put in place, and they can requisition hotels or taxis at the government's expense.
Trying to look on the bright side of this:
1. If you had to dispassionately pick a killer pandemic, this one is probably the one you would choose in terms of the mortality demographics.
2. Hopefully the global nature of the pandemic will result in increased international co-operation.
3. If 2. is correct, a reversal of isolationist, nationalist politics.
4. A realisation of the need to invest heavily in social healthcare and social support mechanisms.
5. A restructuring of the economy away from carbon intensive use.
It would be nice to think that we could look back on it as a positive turning point.
Kids in school are a much lower risk than adults mingling, surely that's clear to everyone by now.
Hi Brutus
Yea I don’t get that either, but Macron has threatened action against folk that ignore his directives. He has said individual sport is ok, so could cycle to the boulders, if I was fit enough
Hi Brutus
Yea I don’t get that either, but Macron has threatened action against folk that ignore his directives. He has said individual sport is ok, so could cycle to the boulders, if I was fit enough
So you are allowed to walk to the boulders but not to drive? I don't see how that makes much sense but what have you. At least there is a zone, albeit tiny, walking distance from where we're at.
bleau.info/moigny (http://bleau.info/moigny)
Tbh I don’t really know what’s alllowed.
Guess I'll work on the 7C+ for the next two weeks :)
Trying to look on the bright side of this:
1. If you had to dispassionately pick a killer pandemic, this one is probably the one you would choose in terms of the mortality demographics.
2. Hopefully the global nature of the pandemic will result in increased international co-operation.
3. If 2. is correct, a reversal of isolationist, nationalist politics.
4. A realisation of the need to invest heavily in social healthcare and social support mechanisms.
5. A restructuring of the economy away from carbon intensive use.
It would be nice to think that we could look back on it as a positive turning point.
A longer post - on a different point. I've had a few conversations and been mulling the following over the last few days....
We don't know how this is all going to pan out at the moment (for the better or for the worse) - but I hope some positives will come from this too. These include:
1. Changing the 9-5 in the office work ethic - and making homeworking and remote working more the norm than the exception. I hope and suspect that many changes in the workplace that are happening right now because of CV19 will lead to a long lasting shift in this. Of course many jobs require a workplace - but many in our largely service driven economy do not - and I hope this can show that people can carry on doing whatever spreadsheet shuffling they may do equally as well at home as at work.
2. Putting a dent in our short haul flight addiction. Maybe less optimism for this - folk may well return to business as usual once this changes. But - with the travel restrictions and downturn in flying I hope people start to realise that they don't need to have five europe mini breaks a year and can have just as relaxing/equivalent break closer to home (with less emissions required...). There are lots of positives in terms of widening peoples perspectives and breaking down cultural barriers of going to lots of places - but I can't help but think we do too much of it.
3. A slower pace of life. Already (from my observations) the roads and public transport are noticably quieter... Not so much self quarantine, but people making concious decisions to go out less, spending more time at home etc.. are these necessarily bad things? (thuogh it may just lead to Netflix dependancy issues :D )
4. If we do less - will we consume less - and leading to a wider point does this mean less of an emphasis on the growth growth growth economic model that the world seems to have subscribed to? I doubt CV19 will stop this - but maybe putting a dent in it and slowing things down globally isnt such a bad thing... (I await someone with stocks and shares pension/isa/savings to come back at me otherwise with this..)
Anyway - just some general musings about how it may change the world we live in - possibly in some positive ways. None of the above is evidence based :)
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)
Kids in school are a much lower risk than adults mingling, surely that's clear to everyone by now.
What do you mean by ‘lower risk’?
Less likely to develop serious complications? Less likely to increase transmission of the virus than adults?
The former is well known. Do you have any evidence for the latter? Share it please if you do.
Re the latter, child-child, child-adult and subsequent adult-adult transmission will increase mortality rates as it accelerates the epidemic.
Tbh I don’t really know what’s alllowed.
JB, my reading of the situation is that the response the UK started with - the mitigate response - was the most sensible response given the data we had back then. The data from # of Italian hospitalisations requiring ICU has changed the outlook, and the government has changed the response.
Preface: I'm a wall owner married to an infectious diseases registrar.
We are currently open for today.
My reasoning being that all the advice I have gotten - government, PHE and clinicians I have spoken to in person or through my partner; we should stay open until told to. I fully expect this to be coming in the next few days.
Absolutely do not go to the wall if you think it is "non-essential". However, this is likely to go on for months and for some their mental wellbeing and health may need it. Many people have mentioned this, including doctors who will be more highly stressed than anyone. I can see some studies in a few years showing significant changes in mental health illnesses during this time.
From what I've been advised, the risk is not like going to a pub - in that at walls (given the current uncrowded-ness) you can maintain a significant distance, and with everyone handwashing we can minimise (but not eliminate) the risk of transmission. The main vector is through aerosols in close proximity to people, with some governmental agencies saying infection via surfaces has not been demonstrated (https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/covid-19/controlprevention.html).
For the first time, I wish I was still working my secure corporate job, working from home so I can support my partner.
Expect that some walls will never re-open.
I'm posting here because I think this is a much more likely to have a reasonable discussion vs ukc.
Preface: I'm a wall owner married to an infectious diseases registrar.
We are currently open for today.
My reasoning being that all the advice I have gotten - government, PHE and clinicians I have spoken to in person or through my partner; we should stay open until told to. I fully expect this to be coming in the next few days.
Absolutely do not go to the wall if you think it is "non-essential". However, this is likely to go on for months and for some their mental wellbeing and health may need it. Many people have mentioned this, including doctors who will be more highly stressed than anyone. I can see some studies in a few years showing significant changes in mental health illnesses during this time.
From what I've been advised, the risk is not like going to a pub - in that at walls (given the current uncrowded-ness) you can maintain a significant distance, and with everyone handwashing we can minimise (but not eliminate) the risk of transmission. The main vector is through aerosols in close proximity to people, with some governmental agencies saying infection via surfaces has not been demonstrated (https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/covid-19/controlprevention.html).
For the first time, I wish I was still working my secure corporate job, working from home so I can support my partner.
Expect that some walls will never re-open.
I'll reserve judgement JB as that isn't what I've seen, but fair enough.
TK421a: I understand your thinking but three obvious points that spring immediately to mind are:
a. when lead climbing, you're touching multiple surfaces (which others have touched) and then putting your hand in your mouth when clipping (most people's clipping looks like: grab rope, rope goes in mouth, grab more rope and make clip).
Just based on that makes me think this can't be the right thing to encourage.
Two other points:
b. climbing is a sweaty activity. Imagine you filmed a crowd of climbers for 1 hour. And then imagine watching back the film and seeing how many times those climbers will wipe their brows, touch their faces, etc. All while repeatedly touching potentially infected surfaces.
c. increased risk of injury - especially a+e type injury.
The whole activity of indoor climbing seems, to my non-expert eyes, to go against what we should be doing to reduce transmission. Also factor in that many indoor climbers will be in the high risk group of older people.
I don't envy your position. That's my take.. But I'd love to keep on climbing indoors or out as well!
I have no problem with walls, or any other business, staying open in an attempt to stay afloat and avoid redundancies whilst the government has not instructed them to close. Advising their customers to abandon them whilst offering no support or guaruntees is outrageous.
Preface: I'm a wall owner married to an infectious diseases registrar.
We are currently open for today.
My reasoning being that all the advice I have gotten - government, PHE and clinicians I have spoken to in person or through my partner; we should stay open until told to. I fully expect this to be coming in the next few days.
Absolutely do not go to the wall if you think it is "non-essential". However, this is likely to go on for months and for some their mental wellbeing and health may need it. Many people have mentioned this, including doctors who will be more highly stressed than anyone. I can see some studies in a few years showing significant changes in mental health illnesses during this time.
From what I've been advised, the risk is not like going to a pub - in that at walls (given the current uncrowded-ness) you can maintain a significant distance, and with everyone handwashing we can minimise (but not eliminate) the risk of transmission. The main vector is through aerosols in close proximity to people, with some governmental agencies saying infection via surfaces has not been demonstrated (https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/covid-19/controlprevention.html).
For the first time, I wish I was still working my secure corporate job, working from home so I can support my partner.
Expect that some walls will never re-open.
Thats hard doors. I hope the Government takes steps like Macron seems to have done to help businesses like yours.
I have to say - that I think you being open right now is wrong. You say you can mininise spread by handwashing, the main vector via aersols and regarding fomites on surfaces cite some government agencies. Thats a few ifs buts and maybe's in there...
According to the modelling cited in the thread above the difference between social distancing being implemented (AND people abiding by it) or not implemented in the UK is 180 000 deaths. Can we afford to take the chance that you are right?
I'm not. I am steering well clear of climbing walls until this has gone.
Sorry TK421a - I hate to think what is going to happen to thousands of small businesses like yours and the people who are employed by them over the next year.
I'm posting here because I think this is a much more likely to have a reasonable discussion vs ukc.
Preface: I'm a wall owner married to an infectious diseases registrar.
We are currently open for today.
My reasoning being that all the advice I have gotten - government, PHE and clinicians I have spoken to in person or through my partner; we should stay open until told to. I fully expect this to be coming in the next few days.
Absolutely do not go to the wall if you think it is "non-essential". However, this is likely to go on for months and for some their mental wellbeing and health may need it. Many people have mentioned this, including doctors who will be more highly stressed than anyone. I can see some studies in a few years showing significant changes in mental health illnesses during this time.
From what I've been advised, the risk is not like going to a pub - in that at walls (given the current uncrowded-ness) you can maintain a significant distance, and with everyone handwashing we can minimise (but not eliminate) the risk of transmission. The main vector is through aerosols in close proximity to people, with some governmental agencies saying infection via surfaces has not been demonstrated (https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/covid-19/controlprevention.html).
For the first time, I wish I was still working my secure corporate job, working from home so I can support my partner.
Expect that some walls will never re-open.
It’s going to be hard to not shut down.
The attacks and “slagging off” have already started. Even if, like us, you are just waiting to discuss with your staff and other affected parties, before you hang a sign on the door.
People stand to lose their livelihoods and the government have not given any clear indication of any intent to mitigate this. The extent, so far, is a promise to provide a grant of £3k, but no indication of how to claim.
Our staff stand to lose, our landlord stands to lose and we will lose everything we had left.
And, no, the insurance doesn’t cover this.
Tbh I don’t really know what’s alllowed.
From what we are reading you must carry a signed attestation of your reason for travel when you leave the house. You are allowed to exercise in the vicinity of your domecile. Very vague but I assume this means walking a few hundred meters through the woods is ok but driving is verboten. Not that there will be gendarmerie in the forest but they may stop people on the road and I doubt saying you're going out to the boulders is going to cut the mustard.
I have no problem with walls, or any other business, staying open in an attempt to stay afloat and avoid redundancies whilst the government has not instructed them to close. Advising their customers to abandon them whilst offering no support or guaruntees is outrageous.
That's shit spidermonkey, commiserations.
Anyway - just some general musings about how it may change the world we live in - possibly in some positive ways. None of the above is evidence based :)
I think the problem we have is that if climbing walls, cafes, pubs, restaurants, hairdressers, etc etc all close, it is quite impossible for the insurance industry to cover those losses. The state has to step in and become the insurer of last resort. It can rely on tax receipts years and years into the future to pay for this now. Otherwise millions of people face ruin.
If the government don’t get this then they are screwed, especially given we can look to France and see what they’re doing.
I agree and support your choice. See my above post for the CDC guidance on surface transmission. I agree there's many variables but we're doing our best to control what we can control (and you should too, if going to the wall is too much of a risk for you). Not much else but to try and follow the current advice.
When is the anger going to come out?
There are alot of anxious people out there - anger is one outlet for anxiety...
We've not seen mass disorder yet in Europe (only over toilet rolls in Sydney...:) ) - but this is surely something to come?
What I hear coming out the UK is that some people are willing to socially isolate whereas others will actively refuse and continue with their usual visits to the pubs. This inconsistent mixture of attitudes as well as no forced closures and kids that are still attending school will cause cases to continue to rise rapidly affecting a larger percentage of the population over a shorter space of time.
TK - another take on this situation. If the gov don't introduce radical financial aid rapidly this week, then the public sentiment that may start to emerge after a number of weeks of sitting at home watching the economy be destroyed, will be at odds with the goal of staying at home.
Anyway - just some general musings about how it may change the world we live in - possibly in some positive ways. None of the above is evidence based :)
Kids mingling at school are low risk?? Really.. based on what?
Another musing..
Anybody else think that this has the potential (if not already there) to turn into THE moral dilemma that will be studied and dissected for the next hundred years?
i.e.
Situation:
An infection to which humanity has no immunity and no vaccine is rapidly spreading throughout the world. It kills a tiny fraction of people in good health under 50, and an order of magnitude greater fraction of people in poor health over 60.
The only way to prevent mass infection is total isolation.
No health service can cope with the ill-health with mass infection which will result from unimpeded spread of the virus.
No economy can cope with the only way to prevent mass infection.
Do you:
a. voluntarily kill the global economy temporarily, to try to protect the at-risk group from infection?
b. protect the livelihoods of current and future generations, but accept that the at-risk group will die in huge numbers from infection?
Is that about right? Big envelope required.
PS anyone know why the Germans aren't dying?A friend of mine explained this, he's a senior professor specialist in viruses and vaccines here at Siena University.
Travelling by private transport, climbing on your own at a wall where there are a limited number of people keeping apart from one another, and returning home, fulfils all the criteria for social distancing while helping your mental wellbeing and health.
Do you:
a. voluntarily kill the global economy temporarily, to try to protect the at-risk group from infection?
b. protect the livelihoods of current and future generations, but accept that the at-risk group will die in huge numbers from infection?
I expect this will last until schools close, which I expect will be imminent.
Do you:
a. voluntarily kill the global economy temporarily, to try to protect the at-risk group from infection?
b. protect the livelihoods of current and future generations, but accept that the at-risk group will die in huge numbers from infection?
And maybe the Chinese will start doing without bats and similarly wonderful ingredients in their soups and butties. And close those fuckin markets.
Andy W Can anyone explain how getting in my car on my drive, going somewhere no one else is, climbing on rock no one else has touched and going home again is a problem? Is it the risk of crashing? I guess it is an unnecessary journey but....One could speculate that spending money running a private vehicle could be minorly useful for the economy. Presuming it averages out as more costly than gardening and netflix.
There are ways to reduce the impact such as closing schools but keeping on a skeleton staff for the children of health workers, the police and other essential workers.
In a lot of cases, it could be the grandparents. Now the children, who may be low risk in terms of deaths but may also be high risk in terms of spreading, are in greater contact with the highest risk population.
Even saw a group of what looked like 65-70 yr old ladies getting off a bus in St. Patrick’s day gear going on a pub crawl.
.
I’m visiting the court in Liverpool as court hearings are still ongoing. No sign of anyone taking any of this seriously. Full of shoppers and people wandering round. Even saw a group of what looked like 65-70 yr old ladies getting off a bus in St. Patrick’s day gear going on a pub crawl.
So my prediction is that the current measures won’t work and we will need a full, enforced continental style lockdown.
I’m visiting the court in Liverpool as court hearings are still ongoing. No sign of anyone taking any of this seriously. Full of shoppers and people wandering round. Even saw a group of what looked like 65-70 yr old ladies getting off a bus in St. Patrick’s day gear going on a pub crawl.
So my prediction is that the current measures won’t work and we will need a full, enforced continental style lockdown.
There are ways to reduce the impact such as closing schools but keeping on a skeleton staff for the children of health workers, the police and other essential workers.
This is what is being done over here in Bavaria, which declared a state of emergency and closed schools - among many other things - yesterday.
our current leadership
Work-wise, just been speaking to clients about upcoming projects and as far as some of them are concerned we're going ahead with work as planned, starting next week. (I'll believe it when we're actually doing it). We have maintenance projects on large petro-chemical sites and they can't just stop maintenance on those types of sites. Other clients with less pressing jobs have postponed some work.
I get all that but what I think is absurd is that a large part of the workforce have been asked to stay home and work (me included), and have children old enough to not need constant supervision. Why are we not being encouraged to take our children out when it is very easy to do so?? Any reduction in numbers in school is a good thing even if full closure is deemed unfeasible. As things stand I could look after my kid at home tomorrow but I would be breaking the law in doing so!! Hardly agile thinking on the part of the government. Seems like a no-brainer from where I'm sat (at home on a laptop).Kids mingling at school are low risk?? Really.. based on what?
It isn't that children going to school are low risk but that the consequences of closing the schools may be deemed to be higher risk.
If you close the schools, who cares for the children?
In a lot of cases, it could be the grandparents. Now the children, who may be low risk in terms of deaths but may also be high risk in terms of spreading, are in greater contact with the highest risk population.
Or maybe the parents have to stay at home. Straight away, that is another huge chunk of people who are off work with all of the financial implications. I heard yesterday that 20% of health workers could be forced off work if schools are closed.
There is also the issue of the most vulnerable children who only get one proper meal a day: their school lunch. Many of the children at my mother's school will be put in to very dangerous situations if they have weeks at home with no teachers looking out for the signs of abuse and neglect.
There are ways to reduce the impact such as closing schools but keeping on a skeleton staff for the children of health workers, the police and other essential workers.
It isn't quite as simple as just closing schools to reduce spread. That said, I do expect they will close at some stage.
I have no idea what your on about then and totally disagree.Not sure what to say to that. :lol:
Just seen Stanley Johnson saying he'll ignore his own son's advice and keep going to the pub ::)
Work-wise, just been speaking to clients about upcoming projects and as far as some of them are concerned we're going ahead with work as planned, starting next week. (I'll believe it when we're actually doing it). We have maintenance projects on large petro-chemical sites and they can't just stop maintenance on those types of sites. Other clients with less pressing jobs have postponed some work.Most of our work is on large scale petrochem turnarounds and infrastructure projects and on construction and safety/maintenance turnarounds in the power industry.
Attitude among colleagues is very complacent, most seem to think work will go ahead regardless and there won't be that much to worry about from the virus.
Driving into the office mid-morning I was surprised by how many people are making 'essential' journeys :lol: Based on this first day, voluntary lock-down will not be effective.
I have no idea what your on about then and totally disagree.Not sure what to say to that. :lol:
I have no idea what your on about then and totally disagree.Not sure what to say to that. :lol:
I am having a fucking long day.
Best wishes both.
That's an anecdote, not data...
That's an anecdote, not data...
If it's anecdote, I'm disappointed it's being used in a select committee meeting.
That's an anecdote, not data...
Work-wise, just been speaking to clients about upcoming projects and as far as some of them are concerned we're going ahead with work as planned, starting next week. (I'll believe it when we're actually doing it). We have maintenance projects on large petro-chemical sites and they can't just stop maintenance on those types of sites. Other clients with less pressing jobs have postponed some work.
Attitude among colleagues is very complacent, most seem to think work will go ahead regardless and there won't be that much to worry about from the virus. I think they're in for a surprise when there are hotels full of dying (no not a typical weekend in Llandudno), but hope I'm wrong.
Driving into the office mid-morning I was surprised by how many people are making 'essential' journeys :lol: Based on this first day, voluntary lock-down will not be effective.
There’s a scary interview on sky news website with an Italian doctor suggesting pretty much the same.
And that they triage people based on whether they can make it or not. So the older ones don’t get the ICU treatment.
A quick look finds it does seem to be reported in the Dutch press - but without knowing more it's not clear what the reason/significance is. For example it looks like its based on a relatively small number of patients in ICU (50 according to report I read).
If 75% of reported COVID19 cases in Italy are people over age 50 then I find it hard to believe 50% of ICU cases in Netherlands are under age 50.
A shopping list was messaged out by my dad (age 80) this evening from within the inner sanctum of their cocoon. They put in their first ever order on online shopping with Asda today, but due to demand the earliest available delivery date is Friday NEXT WEEK..
Mostly sausages, soup and cheddar cheese, and a 'Total TV Guide' magazine... :lol:
edit: yep small number fallacy.
Unless I’m mistaken the US treasury is mailing people $1000 cheques...
Read something about Italians being given €800 each.
Here £330bn loan package for businesses. Sounds good idea but I bet it won’t be straightforward to apply... devil in detail etc..
Looks like Direct quantative easing to people is starting to happen. Universal basic income......
I see the Depot walls have joined the TCAs in closing their doors now. Really hope these businesses can survive.
The University I work at closed completely for teaching and research as of 5pm last night. We all expected it would eventually happen and most were ready but in the end we were given just 4 hours' notice to completely shut down every single lab. Very surreal experience.
edit: wording clarity
Roads round us were busy today.
Our neighbour is an elderly lady who is taking the warnings seriously. Her garden is going to be fucking immaculate by the time this is over.
Not least the fact that all the cultural institutions are likely to be shut by then I'd have thought?
"There has never in my lifetime been a law that so encroached on our civil liberties and basic rights as the Coronavirus Bill, scheduled to become law by end of month. It is all aimed at keeping us safe. But the transfer of unchallengeable power to the state for two years is..."
Ours was half a day ahead. Despite being closed for most things - my inbox reveals that university administrators are still working to full effect. Truly the cockroaches of the academic system.
(For their ability to survive etc... honest.. 😃)
Not least the fact that all the cultural institutions are likely to be shut by then I'd have thought?
I live here/there - unless he fancies an immersive ‘21 days later’ experience or queuing a lot, he’s going to be disappointed.;D :'(
I live in Barnstaple, North Devon! Firstly, can I say on behalf of everyone here ‘don’t be coming eer grockles!’. I can also report that North Devon hospital was in code red or whatever they call the we’re f**ked and full to the brim before this started. Our neighbour works there and unsurprisingly reports it’s full on up there.Not least the fact that all the cultural institutions are likely to be shut by then I'd have thought?
All the major institutions - National Gallery, Tate, V+A, NPG, British Museum, Museum of London, all major concert halls - are closed.
The response of some on the Climber's Club FB page is similar: a lot of denial and invitations to visit rural N Devon. How many ITU beds does Barnstaple hospital have...?I live here/there - unless he fancies an immersive ‘21 days later’ experience or queuing a lot, he’s going to be disappointed.;D :'(
The differences in behaviour is bizarre and interesting to observe.
hopefully soon to be leafy S.Manchester, Nursery (its part of a school) was only half full today.
My Dad's cycling club (all over 60, most with additional complications) are set to go out on a club ride as per usual today. He's not attending.
His mate (60+) just made it back from France yesterday and decided he'd be going out for dinner to celebrate. My in-laws flew to Sydney on Fri and when we were talking to them regarding risk they cited us climbing and said something along the lines of "we have no underlying health issues". They're 77.
Honestly, “that” generation are a pain in the fucking arse.
I had to go into town yesterday. Very few people under 60 visible, every cafe full of obviously retirees.
JB, my reading of the situation is that the response the UK started with - the mitigate response - was the most sensible response given the modelling and the data they had back then - bearing in mind the total shutdown for 6-18 months alternative was complete economic destruction. The data from # of Italian hospitalisations requiring ICU has changed the outlook, and the government has changed the response. I don't see cause for anger, they were doing what they should - acting on the advice of the best science at the time, and they've changed their approach according to new data. That's good.
I can also report that North Devon hospital was in code red or whatever they call the we’re f**ked and full to the brim before this started. Our neighbour works there and unsurprisingly reports it’s full on up there.
They're all fucking mental. If they aren't going to help themselves there is a very real risk that others just stop taking precautions too.
They're all fucking mental. If they aren't going to help themselves there is a very real risk that others just stop taking precautions too.
My parents are holed up at home in Minehead as of today... However, they’ve been in S Wales visiting my dad’s brother, followed up with a couple of days in Cardiff.
BigMickyD also took his 95 year old mother out for a meal. Just no words..
Honestly, “that” generation are a pain in the fucking arse.
I had to go into town yesterday. Very few people under 60 visible, every cafe full of obviously retirees.
That 'Blitz Spirit' of carry on carry on - is very much NOT what should happen.....
I look forward to millennial behaviour being blamed for the enormous death toll in a few months time... :wall:
- If 1 person infects .625 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 2.5 infections
The fact that you're getting 0 from this would seem to be your first problem.
Cancelled my winter climbing trip yesterday - Scotland has even less ICU beds than England. Will be closing the company doors on Friday. If they don't close the schools I'll be pulling my son out anyway. Time to do what you can.Quote- If 1 person infects .625 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 2.5 infections
The fact that you're getting 0 from this would seem to be your first problem.
since I'm on leave it makes sense to try and tackle some jobs to prepare for an extended period of staying in.
I've scheduled this weekend for building a home woodie. I'm beginning to worry that might be too late to buy materials!
I've scheduled this weekend for building a home woodie. I'm beginning to worry that might be too late to buy materials!
Do ypu think there might have been a run on 19mm ply.
The fact that you're getting 0 from this would seem to be your first problem.
I originally got ~1600, 85 and 2, but then I modified my model. Maybe it was better the first time. In any case, I can't get anywhere near as low as 400 for the first instance
I've scheduled this weekend for building a home woodie. I'm beginning to worry that might be too late to buy materials!
Do ypu think there might have been a run on 19mm ply.
I fear there might be a quarantine and shops might close
Do you think there might have been a run on 19mm ply.
The fact that you're getting 0 from this would seem to be your first problem.
I originally got ~1600, 85 and 2, but then I modified my model. Maybe it was better the first time. In any case, I can't get anywhere near as low as 400 for the first instance
since I'm on leave it makes sense to try and tackle some jobs to prepare for an extended period of staying in.
It's quite ironic this, everyone rushing out and about to get as many things ready for staying in.
I'm not saying I've been much better though.
Can someone critique my maths?
There' an infographic doing the rounds on FB, advocating social distancing and saying
- If 1 person infects 2.5 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 406 infections
- If 1 person infects 1.25 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 15 infections
- If 1 person infects .625 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 2.5 infections
But my rough numbers, when assuming it takes 15 days to become "uninfected and uninfectious" come out as more like 1600, 65 and 0 (it's fudged because doing things in blocks of 5 days doesn't work nicely). Am I wrong or are they?
Rumours that London will be in lockdown from the weekend... Send your projects now or forever hold your peace. For a few weeks anyway. Bad timing for the dry weather to arrive!
I had the impression that it can be so mild as to give no symptoms... but I can't remember where I've read that so treat cautiously
But not for kids of NHS staff. Imagine being the kid who has to go in when everyone else is off :lol:
But not for kids of NHS staff. Imagine being the kid who has to go in when everyone else is off :lol:A friend who is a paramedic just posted a picture of her daughter’s face when she heard the accept for children of key workers, THE definition of not impressed!
Bad timing for the dry weather to arrive!
Rumours that London will be in lockdown from the weekend... Send your projects now or forever hold your peace. For a few weeks anyway. Bad timing for the dry weather to arrive!
Have also heard this from a friend who's Dad works in Parliament.
But not for kids of NHS staff. Imagine being the kid who has to go in when everyone else is off :lol:
Currently just travelling back from visiting my kids on the Isle of Man, no fucking idea when I’ll next be able to see them.
there's just an unbridgeable gulf between many people of that generation and ours in terms of how we access information, and how we can now all quickly use multiple alternative sources of data to question and try to form an accurate view of events.
About the age thing..
Whilst we haven’t been forced to close, we couldn’t live with ourselves knowing that we are potentially increasing the speed at which the virus is spreading.
Currently just travelling back from visiting my kids on the Isle of Man, no fucking idea when I’ll next be able to see them.
You managed to avoid the quarantine just I guess?
The people not heeding govt advice about social distancing/ socialising are quite simply being selfish. Putting their desires above the bigger picture of people dying.
Selfish actions are not mutually exclusive to the over 50/60’s but look how that age group have recently voted... (twice).
Ooh controversial TT! Not agreeing or disagreeing, but noting that there's a powerful undertone in this crisis of them and us.
Yes older / younger. Or higher risk / lower risk.
The PPE thing, gov could easily requisition at a guess 10s of thousands of FFP3 masks from industrial services companies and other industrial companies who have stores full of them because they use them daily.
Are people still planning to go climbing outside at the weekend? Desperate to escape the house while I still can. My gut feeling is that its still ok but interested in what others think.
Are people still planning to go climbing outside at the weekend? Desperate to escape the house while I still can. My gut feeling is that its still ok but interested in what others think.
The crags will be empty but they always are.
To counter all the news about how bad it is in hospitals at the minute i have family working in hospitals in north east, a doctor and a buyer. The buyer is manic busy spending millions on stuff in prep for what ever happens, they have re opened old wards and got more beds etc.
However they both say the hospitals are really quite, way quieter than normal and all is calm. There is a sense that something is about to happen but at the minute its quiter than a normal March.
We have 300 in a warehouse about 100 feet away from where I'm sitting. We're a small division of a gigantic group. Each part of the group will have stock. If the group decides it wants to donate its stock then that's the exco's decision (unless gov enforce requisition, which they might well do). Those directors have eyes and ears like the rest of us so must know there's a need. If in a month or two's time it's clear there's a shortage (likely) and if the group exco haven't donated then I'll do what little I can.Yes older / younger. Or higher risk / lower risk.
The PPE thing, gov could easily requisition at a guess 10s of thousands of FFP3 masks from industrial services companies and other industrial companies who have stores full of them because they use them daily.
Blimey, if your people have stocks why not get in touch with someone and see if they can be used. I really don't feel terribly reassured about potentially very close and prolonged exposure to high virus load with a paper napkin over my face. Even worse for people in ICUs.
A police officer we know has been instructed to be a ‘first responder’, they have been issued with no PPE and will be coming into contact with anyone. She was at Screwfix yesterday buying the kind of face mask you would use for a bit of DIY.. not sure how effective these masks are but very concerning that the police are unable to supply frontline officers with basic PPE.
The crags will be empty but they always are.
amen to thatQuote
To counter all the news about how bad it is in hospitals at the minute i have family working in hospitals in north east, a doctor and a buyer. The buyer is manic busy spending millions on stuff in prep for what ever happens, they have re opened old wards and got more beds etc.
good to hearQuoteHowever they both say the hospitals are really quite, way quieter than normal and all is calm. There is a sense that something is about to happen but at the minute its quiter than a normal March.
Because all non essential ops have been cancelled?? (and a lot of the neds are out panic buying instead of rocking up at A&E cause they have a splinter ?? )
The crags will be empty but they always are.
To counter all the news about how bad it is in hospitals at the minute i have family working in hospitals in north east, a doctor and a buyer. The buyer is manic busy spending millions on stuff in prep for what ever happens, they have re opened old wards and got more beds etc. However they both say the hospitals are really quite, way quieter than normal and all is calm. There is a sense that something is about to happen but at the minute its quiter than a normal March.
4/ I myself watched with some amazement the reorganization of the entire hospital in the past week, when our current enemy was still in the shadows: the wards slowly "emptied", elective activities were interrupted, intensive care were freed up to create as many beds as possible.
5/ All this rapid transformation brought an atmosphere of silence and surreal emptiness to the corridors of the hospital that we did not yet understand, waiting for a war that was yet to begin and that many (including me) were not so sure would ever come with such ferocity.
6/ I still remember my night call a week ago when I was waiting for the results of a swab. When I think about it, my anxiety over one possible case seems almost ridiculous and unjustified, now that I've seen what's happening. Well, the situation now is dramatic to say the least.
7/ The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. But now that need for beds has arrived in all its drama. One after the other the departments that had been emptied fill up at an impressive pace.
8/ The boards with the names of the patients, of different colours depending on the operating unit, are now all red and instead of surgery you see the diagnosis, which is always the damned same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.
11/ Cases are multiplying, we arrive at a rate of 15-20 admissions per day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the E.R. is collapsing.
13/ Someone already to be intubated and go to intensive care. For others it's too late... Every ventilator becomes like gold: those in operating theatres that have now suspended their non-urgent activity become intensive care places that did not exist before.
To counter all the news about how bad it is in hospitals at the minute i have family working in hospitals in north east, a doctor and a buyer. The buyer is manic busy spending millions on stuff in prep for what ever happens, they have re opened old wards and got more beds etc. However they both say the hospitals are really quite, way quieter than normal and all is calm. There is a sense that something is about to happen but at the minute its quiter than a normal March.
Silvia Stringhini, an italian doctor on twitter (https://twitter.com/silviast9/status/1236933818654896129) ten days ago:Quote4/ I myself watched with some amazement the reorganization of the entire hospital in the past week, when our current enemy was still in the shadows: the wards slowly "emptied", elective activities were interrupted, intensive care were freed up to create as many beds as possible.
5/ All this rapid transformation brought an atmosphere of silence and surreal emptiness to the corridors of the hospital that we did not yet understand, waiting for a war that was yet to begin and that many (including me) were not so sure would ever come with such ferocity.
6/ I still remember my night call a week ago when I was waiting for the results of a swab. When I think about it, my anxiety over one possible case seems almost ridiculous and unjustified, now that I've seen what's happening. Well, the situation now is dramatic to say the least.
7/ The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. But now that need for beds has arrived in all its drama. One after the other the departments that had been emptied fill up at an impressive pace.
8/ The boards with the names of the patients, of different colours depending on the operating unit, are now all red and instead of surgery you see the diagnosis, which is always the damned same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.
11/ Cases are multiplying, we arrive at a rate of 15-20 admissions per day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the E.R. is collapsing.
13/ Someone already to be intubated and go to intensive care. For others it's too late... Every ventilator becomes like gold: those in operating theatres that have now suspended their non-urgent activity become intensive care places that did not exist before.
To counter all the news about how bad it is in hospitals at the minute i have family working in hospitals in north east, a doctor and a buyer. The buyer is manic busy spending millions on stuff in prep for what ever happens, they have re opened old wards and got more beds etc. However they both say the hospitals are really quite, way quieter than normal and all is calm. There is a sense that something is about to happen but at the minute its quiter than a normal March.
Silvia Stringhini, an italian doctor on twitter (https://twitter.com/silviast9/status/1236933818654896129) ten days ago:Quote4/ I myself watched with some amazement the reorganization of the entire hospital in the past week, when our current enemy was still in the shadows: the wards slowly "emptied", elective activities were interrupted, intensive care were freed up to create as many beds as possible.
5/ All this rapid transformation brought an atmosphere of silence and surreal emptiness to the corridors of the hospital that we did not yet understand, waiting for a war that was yet to begin and that many (including me) were not so sure would ever come with such ferocity.
6/ I still remember my night call a week ago when I was waiting for the results of a swab. When I think about it, my anxiety over one possible case seems almost ridiculous and unjustified, now that I've seen what's happening. Well, the situation now is dramatic to say the least.
7/ The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. But now that need for beds has arrived in all its drama. One after the other the departments that had been emptied fill up at an impressive pace.
8/ The boards with the names of the patients, of different colours depending on the operating unit, are now all red and instead of surgery you see the diagnosis, which is always the damned same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.
11/ Cases are multiplying, we arrive at a rate of 15-20 admissions per day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the E.R. is collapsing.
13/ Someone already to be intubated and go to intensive care. For others it's too late... Every ventilator becomes like gold: those in operating theatres that have now suspended their non-urgent activity become intensive care places that did not exist before.
Yet again i love how you can really bring any positivity down to earth with a bang. I really hope i never get stuck in a lift with you.
225000 cases, 9277 deaths and 81000 recovered world wide still is so far away from what people are saying will happen, so i am still trying to sort out real stuff and look on the bright side.
There's positivity and there's wilfully ignoring the facts for the sake of positivity. Looking on the bright side is great but it sounds like (I may be wrong) you're saying its all a fuss over nothing.
Unfortunately Gav, the proven response to pandemic threat is to over-react, and over-react early. Wishful positive thinking only leads people not to take the simple basic steps that could control it.
I'm pretty sure a month ago you have scoffed at the number of cases and deaths we have now. The speed things are now accelerating should surely be concerning. Everyone still carrying on as normal is only contributing to the body count.
Some other giveaways of the magnitude of this one are:
a. The markets aren't dumb, they don't' react this way to a bad flu year or even a doubling of a bad flu year, or Ebola/SARS/etc.
b. Government epidemic plans which state that, for very serious pandemics, total lock-down is 'probably impractical' and not likely to be effective in the long-term. Then square that fact with the fact that governments worldwide are anyway choosing the 'probably impractical in the long term' option to try to reduce the numbers of fatalities.
c. Then square that 'probably impractical in the long-term' bit with the economic destruction governments are wilfully inflicting on their nations, to try to reduce the numbers of fatalities.
This won't be finished by August. I think many people haven't picked up on that or are in denial, and the media haven't pressed that point.
This won't be finished by August. I think many people haven't picked up on that or are in denial, and the media haven't pressed that point.
This seems the most hard to fathom part of this from the selfish point of view of direct impact to my life (until/unless parents get ill)... A month back I was thinking I'd still be going to France at Easter. 2 weeks back I was thinking it was unlikely but you never know. My current working assumption is that we wont be leaving the country for recreational purposes during 2020.
The primary school of my two youngest, just sent us a letter.
The school has been instructed (their words) to remain open to provide child care for key workers, throughout what would have been the Easter holidays.
All staff have had leave canceled.
They have said they will provide a list of key employments, tomorrow, when they receive it.
Anyone else hearing this or similar?
The primary school of my two youngest, just sent us a letter.
The school has been instructed (their words) to remain open to provide child care for key workers, throughout what would have been the Easter holidays.
All staff have had leave canceled.
They have said they will provide a list of key employments, tomorrow, when they receive it.
Anyone else hearing this or similar?
Accirding to NASUWT update, only if both ie if one parent at home to cover, then child stays with them.
IF the social distancing works and people take it seriously. If people can be made to stick to that then you’ll be right and this will look like a bad flu year from a health standpoint.
Sounds difficult Brutus, good luck with that. I take it this means you are more or less isolating yourself indefinitely then?It is what it is and I am sure our situation is better than others. I am self-isolating indefinitely.
Report on Bloomberg about dangers to young people:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/coronavirus-in-young-people-is-it-dangerous-data-show-it-can-be
Accirding to NASUWT update, only if both ie if one parent at home to cover, then child stays with them.
So not if they’re working from home... 🤦♂️
Those children who can mix with their peers will be the lucky ones .
Those children who can mix with their peers will be the lucky ones .
Another musing..
Anybody else think that this has the potential (if not already there) to turn into THE moral dilemma that will be studied and dissected for the next hundred years?
i.e.
Situation:
An infection to which humanity has no immunity and no vaccine is rapidly spreading throughout the world. It kills a tiny fraction of people in good health under 50, and an order of magnitude greater fraction of people in poor health over 60.
The only way to prevent mass infection is total isolation.
No health service can cope with the ill-health with mass infection which will result from unimpeded spread of the virus.
No economy can cope with the only way to prevent mass infection.
Do you:
a. voluntarily kill the global economy temporarily, to try to protect the at-risk group from infection?
b. protect the livelihoods of current and future generations, but accept that the at-risk group will die in huge numbers from infection?
Is that about right? Big envelope required.
I consider this a category error - the decision has already been made as a) and always will be.
Human lives are real and cannot be valued in economic terms. Conversely the economy is entirely a product of our imaginations and has no unbreakable link to reality. It won't go away because modern society is dependent on trade. But the current position is no more concrete than a game of monopoly, there are just more players.
We'd have had martial law at the outset.
"Why's your Will telling B to stay at home?"
"They should be able to go out. It's discriminatory against the elderly".
"They've paid their taxes. They're entitled to use the NHS".
"Why's your Will telling B to stay at home?"
"They should be able to go out. It's discriminatory against the elderly".
"They've paid their taxes. They're entitled to use the NHS".
Jesus fucking christ. Did your wife give him both barrels?
I was thinking about this yesterday. I'm not sure it's as simple as this. Imagine if the risk to age demographics was reversed. Children especially vulnerable and the older you get the less risk you're at. We'd have had martial law at the outset.
I was thinking about this yesterday. I'm not sure it's as simple as this. Imagine if the risk to age demographics was reversed. Children especially vulnerable and the older you get the less risk you're at. We'd have had martial law at the outset.
I'm not quite sure of your point here. Presumably for most people with any sort of utilitarian leaning* would consider the question/answer to be quite different in your scenario, so it's not surprising that people would come to a different conclusion?
*I'm naively assuming that this covers most non-highly-religious people, but may be entirely wrong on this front
My elderly neighbour (78) is doing her best with distancing. She's switched on and gets it. Her boyfriend (early 60s) had a conversation with my wife this morning which left her shaking with rage.
These are the various things he had to say.
"Why's your Will telling B to stay at home?"
"They should be able to go out. It's discriminatory against the elderly".
"They've paid their taxes. They're entitled to use the NHS".
Complete failure to comprehend the scale of the problem.
Plenty of old people on our street carrying on like nothing is happening. Yesterday, on our social distancing walk there were young people out climbing as a crew. Old ramblers groups out together. We definitely won't see any behavioural change until the bodies are piling up and it's far too late.
225000 cases, 9277 deaths and 81000 recovered world wide still is so far away from what people are saying will happen, so i am still trying to sort out real stuff and look on the bright side.
Another musing..
Anybody else think that this has the potential (if not already there) to turn into THE moral dilemma that will be studied and dissected for the next hundred years?
i.e.
Situation:
An infection to which humanity has no immunity and no vaccine is rapidly spreading throughout the world. It kills a tiny fraction of people in good health under 50, and an order of magnitude greater fraction of people in poor health over 60.
The only way to prevent mass infection is total isolation.
No health service can cope with the ill-health with mass infection which will result from unimpeded spread of the virus.
No economy can cope with the only way to prevent mass infection.
Do you:
a. voluntarily kill the global economy temporarily, to try to protect the at-risk group from infection?
b. protect the livelihoods of current and future generations, but accept that the at-risk group will die in huge numbers from infection?
Is that about right? Big envelope required.I consider this a category error - the decision has already been made as a) and always will be.
Human lives are real and cannot be valued in economic terms. Conversely the economy is entirely a product of our imaginations and has no unbreakable link to reality. It won't go away because modern society is dependent on trade. But the current position is no more concrete than a game of monopoly, there are just more players.
I was thinking about this yesterday. I'm not sure it's as simple as this. Imagine if the risk to age demographics was reversed. Children especially vulnerable and the older you get the less risk you're at. We'd have had martial law at the outset.
I agree that we value young life above old. I'm not convinced that means the lower value placed on old life is anywhere close to the much lower value place on money. In desperate times people say things like 'it's only money, we'll get through it'. They don't say 'ah well it's only death'.
It's clear that lots of people, perhaps even a majority, are just blithely ignoring the facts and will do until the bodies are being trucked out. At which point they'll complain that nobody warned them.
When was the last time lives were worth a million quid on average? Especially old/sick ones. The NHS cost effectiveness threshold is something like £20k per QALY. Cant see how the covid cost isn't quite handsomely north of that.
skills to volunteer to help with testing as the hospital lab. is very stretched
When was the last time lives were worth a million quid on average? Especially old/sick ones. The NHS cost effectiveness threshold is something like £20k per QALY. Cant see how the covid cost isn't quite handsomely north of that.
Guidance in my industry allows for you to essentially put a price on loss of life when comparing it to the cost of remedial works. That figure is considerably in excess of £20k and it's far nearer the million quid.
Duncan, where does the £20k (or £30k) come from? And is a similar sort of estimation used to calculate what sort of other medical treatments are offered that just improve quality of life?
No been through the thread since this morning - but Amazon’s Audible audio book service is now free for all children’s books 👏👏👏
I handed my notice in at work a few weeks ago and it's supposed to be my last day next Thursday. The plan was to spend Spring working on my loft conversion, bathroom and re-wire before renting it out and move to Cornwall this summer with my missus who has a new job lined up down there. I can't see any reason the UK won't be shutdown like France,Spain,Italy etc this time next week, which will make it almost impossible to go out and get the stuff I need to do the work, and for others to put up scaffold, etc. I don't want to be sat at home all summer with no income and making no progress on the house, so I'm going to have to ask to rescind my resignation and hopefully I can carry on working (frontline water industry 'key worker'). Either way it throws the whole Cornwall move in the air now- I don't think we'll be able to go and view houses down there anytime soon. All a bit uncertain for us at the moment. Sorry to whinge, we have our health and that's the main thing. Good to get that off my chest! Stay safe out there
frontline water industry 'key worker'
Interesting. A friend at a power station said the operators there are doing this already.frontline water industry 'key worker'
Bavarian state government where I live have mentioned the possibility of quarantining essential services workers *at work*. They aren't doing it yet, but apparently under state of emergency powers they can & might.
So how long does Cov-19 stick around on different surfaces...
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973
Unfortunately, they didn't test rock types.
I'm a key worker in electricity generation - there's already a plan in place for teams of us to live in the office if really hits the fan.Interesting. A friend at a power station said the operators there are doing this already.frontline water industry 'key worker'
Bavarian state government where I live have mentioned the possibility of quarantining essential services workers *at work*. They aren't doing it yet, but apparently under state of emergency powers they can & might.
But I can’t see it affecting me as I’m a mobile worker covering lots of sites across the county with no defined ‘place of work’ to be quarantined at.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56Yup, shared that on previous page.
This is interesting, and seems well reasoned and based on sound assumptions
It all feels like too little too late... our number of dead is rising at near the same as Italy two weeks ago.
No daily briefing from Team Boris today.
But an address to the nation later. My money is on a lockdown (Shirley? Been on the cards for a while)
Meanwhile in our road - where 3/10 houses have/are being affected tales are coming out. Those who started with ‘like a cold’ are now saying ‘never felt so tired’, the 35 yo man training to run a marathon (upnto 20k so far) described it as having 3 days where someone heavy was sitting on his chest (he’s now knackered still taking the dog for a potter)... also one with mild symptoms but no taste/smell (which is also a common one it appears).
What’s VERY noticeable from the houses in quarantine (we’re all terraces) are how little noise or activity there is. None of the normal waving out the window - or seeing people being about. They’re all sleeping lots and really tired.
It's alarming that you, me and Duncan have all been poorly so that's a pretty high % of UKB'ers in London.
Guardian: Should someone behave differently if they think, but don’t know for certain, that they have already had it?
Buchholz: We all have to be role models. If we’re all in it together, we all should be doing social distancing.
Hillman: Since there’s no real way to know at this point who might have had it, unless you’re symptomatic, you get a swab and are definitively diagnosed with it, I would just act as if you hadn’t had it. Keep doing all of those things that we all should be doing at this point: social distancing and hand hygiene.
We're doing a lot less testing than a lot of countries.
So, can I see my daughter (who lives with her mum ~ 75% of the time) for the next few weeks? Anyone know where to look for updated guidelines on this after today's announcement?
We're doing a lot less testing than a lot of countries.
Anyone know where to look for updated guidelines on this after today's announcement?
Isle of Man has fully closed it’s birders to non residents. I have no idea when I’ll next see my kids. I hope can continue to see your daughter Duma.
So, can I see my daughter (who lives with her mum ~ 75% of the time) for the next few weeks? Anyone know where to look for updated guidelines on this after today's announcement?
There was specific mention, in the after blurb on the BBC report, that playgrounds, sports courts etc, would be closed down.
I can’t see the Police inspecting the entire nation’s back gardens (I’m pretty sure that counts as home) unless you’ve rescheduled Glastonbury in your shrubbery?
A bit exercise outdoors might still be allowed in France, but I have decided to stop running for the foreseeable future.
Unlikely, but only takes one dickhead. I expect people will be getting a bit vigilante about this.
Thanks for the info Toby. Gutted, haven't slept at all yet. If anyone sees anything official written down somewhere on this they can link to I'd appreciate it.So, can I see my daughter (who lives with her mum ~ 75% of the time) for the next few weeks? Anyone know where to look for updated guidelines on this after today's announcement?
There was an advisor on 5 live earlier who answered this question from a caller. She said that the children should stay with one parent and that it's terrible but communicate with the other via phone Skype etc until the lockdown is over. She said that transfer between households or visiting was expressly prohibited.
Thanks for the info Toby. Gutted, haven't slept at all yet. If anyone sees anything official written down somewhere on this they can link to I'd appreciate it.So, can I see my daughter (who lives with her mum ~ 75% of the time) for the next few weeks? Anyone know where to look for updated guidelines on this after today's announcement?
There was an advisor on 5 live earlier who answered this question from a caller. She said that the children should stay with one parent and that it's terrible but communicate with the other via phone Skype etc until the lockdown is over. She said that transfer between households or visiting was expressly prohibited.
A bit exercise outdoors might still be allowed in France, but I have decided to stop running for the foreseeable future. I will do a skipping rope workout in the apartment instead. We have a balcony, it will have to do for outdoor activities for the coming month or two.
A bit exercise outdoors might still be allowed in France, but I have decided to stop running for the foreseeable future. I will do a skipping rope workout in the apartment instead. We have a balcony, it will have to do for outdoor activities for the coming month or two.
The stated allowance in that written guidance is "Travelling to and from work, but only where this absolutely cannot be done from home."
So that includes our monitoring work. And we are a critical sector. And we're not on the list of outlawed businesses (obviously); neither is our contractor.
This is making it quite difficult to know what to do. Will have to thrash it out with my colleagues.
Thx for the heads up. Did skipping as cardio a few years ago, but I will start slow. Mostly worried about DOMS...A bit exercise outdoors might still be allowed in France, but I have decided to stop running for the foreseeable future. I will do a skipping rope workout in the apartment instead. We have a balcony, it will have to do for outdoor activities for the coming month or two.
Have you experience of skipping previously? Can be pretty hard on the knees so mind how you go with it
The stated allowance in that written guidance is "Travelling to and from work, but only where this absolutely cannot be done from home."
So that includes our monitoring work. And we are a critical sector. And we're not on the list of outlawed businesses (obviously); neither is our contractor.
This is making it quite difficult to know what to do. Will have to thrash it out with my colleagues.
The earlier guidance stated 'go to work (if you're a key worker)'
They then backtracked and issued the vagueness of last night.
Whatever you decide I would do it on the basis of where we are headed not what the small print says you could get away with today. When the hospitals are in the shit I don't think you'll want it on your conscience.
It's alarming that you, me and Duncan have all been poorly so that's a pretty high % of UKB'ers in London.
A bit exercise outdoors might still be allowed in France, but I have decided to stop running for the foreseeable future.
Interested to hear why you have decided this, given that it is allowed.
It's alarming that you, me and Duncan have all been poorly so that's a pretty high % of UKB'ers in London.
A bit exercise outdoors might still be allowed in France, but I have decided to stop running for the foreseeable future.
Interested to hear why you have decided this, given that it is allowed.
Until I am tested I will just assume that I have the virus but is asymptomatic. I will do what I can not to spread it.
So, can I see my daughter (who lives with her mum ~ 75% of the time) for the next few weeks? Anyone know where to look for updated guidelines on this after today's announcement?
So, can I see my daughter (who lives with her mum ~ 75% of the time) for the next few weeks? Anyone know where to look for updated guidelines on this after today's announcement?
It's alarming that you, me and Duncan have all been poorly so that's a pretty high % of UKB'ers in London.
Just the oldies Ben!
I'm slowly recovering, hope you do too.
FYI - this morning at 7:20 on GMB Gove said that children should stay put. There's an exception for children with unique vulnerabilities.
Gove has tweeted to apologize for contradicting the official line in various media outlets this morning. Essentially it sounds like children can switch between two parent's houses, as long as no-one is self-isolating for medical grounds.
87! Today.The curve can't possibly flatten for about 2 weeks, can it? The deaths are already locked in because the infections which cause the deaths that will occur in 2 weeks or so have already happened. Sorry if I've got that wrong. Given that it's been business as usual today (for lots and lots of people) on the government's express instruction then I don't see how the peak can do anything but receive a small set back.
I was daring to hope the curve was flattening.
Sorry, should have said, but got interrupted. It is from one of the labour unions of Pharmacist workers (https://uspo.fr/). I do think everyone should take the same precautions.
People driving to the park to walk their dogs
People driving to the park to walk their dogs
Is that really so bad? Sounds like minimising the amount of contact you might have with others until you get to the wide open space (pavements don't readily allow for passing at a 2m distance).
From what I've seen today on my first day of enforced Daddydaycare it's only a matter of time before stricter measures are enforced. Went for my permitted walk through our local park which is fortunately just over the road from us and saw;
People driving to the park to walk their dogs
People using the skate park which was barrier taped off with signs up saying do not use
Multiple runners / walkers making no attempt to leave 2m social distancing
Clearly a lot of people are working on the principal of 'unless we're expressly forbidden from doing something we're going to keep calm and carry on'
:wall: :wall: :wall: :wall: :wall: :wall: :wall: :wall: :wall:
Isle of Man has fully closed it’s birders to non residents. I have no idea when I’ll next see my kids. I hope can continue to see your daughter Duma.
That is utterly shit for you and I cannot imagine not being able to see my kids.
Covid symptoms tracker. For the healthy as well as unwell, to track progress of disease through population.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/
Wow. They're doing really well in providing a clear and consistent message to all :tumble:.
https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1242358443702390789?s=20
I read that the severity of CV-19 symptoms is dependent on the initial viral load at the point of infection and your own health/age and probably numerous other factors.
Agree how shit flu is.
It’s interesting how many people will hear that the best case scenario of getting the virus doesn’t feature bad symptoms and almost completely disregard all the other horrific things about it.
It’s interesting how many people will hear that the best case scenario of getting the virus doesn’t feature bad symptoms and almost completely disregard all the other horrific things about it.
I suspect many people are assuming - as I am - that we'll probably get it at some point over the next 12 months anyway. That's what we've been told to expect after all (though this may have changed given change in gov's strategy). So the main thing becomes not fucking over other people too much by all getting it at the same time, rather than worrying about whether it will suck ass or not.
It’s interesting how many people will hear that the best case scenario of getting the virus doesn’t feature bad symptoms and almost completely disregard all the other horrific things about it.
I suspect many people are assuming - as I am - that we'll probably get it at some point over the next 12 months anyway. That's what we've been told to expect after all (though this may have changed given change in gov's strategy). So the main thing becomes not fucking over other people too much by all getting it at the same time, rather than worrying about whether it will suck ass or not.
i saw an interview with an doctor on this, he seemed clued up, I will try track it down.
Anyone know why there’s no figures released for England today? Scotland and Wales released their numbers around 5pm, as normal.
Anyone know why there’s no figures released for England today? Scotland and Wales released their numbers around 5pm, as normal.
Small print at the bottom of here https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14 says:
"Daily updates are sometimes delayed as data cannot be published until signed off by DHSC."
From what I've seen today on my first day of enforced Daddydaycare it's only a matter of time before stricter measures are enforced. Went for my permitted walk through our local park which is fortunately just over the road from us and saw;
People driving to the park to walk their dogs
People using the skate park which was barrier taped off with signs up saying do not use
Multiple runners / walkers making no attempt to leave 2m social distancing
Clearly a lot of people are working on the principal of 'unless we're expressly forbidden from doing something we're going to keep calm and carry on'
:wall: :wall: :wall: :wall: :wall: :wall: :wall: :wall: :wall:
Total opposite for me. Local walk with the dog; few people also out walking and running but everyone very clearly observing 2m distance, including an amusing exchange with a family with young children as to who should cross the road (we did in the end obvs.). Plenty of stepping into the road to maintain distance etc. I was reassured that people were taking it seriously. Interesting to see the differences in our own tiny little spheres.
The bar chart at the bottom shows 1500 new cases on 25/03.
Anyone knowledgeable who'd care to comment on the Oxford study flagged up that more than half the UK population may already have had the virus without showing symptoms? (feel free to punter me if it's already been posted and i missed it...). Remotely possible or based on poor assumptions?
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-if-half-the-population-already-has-coronavirus-
Anyone knowledgeable who'd care to comment on the Oxford study flagged up that more than half the UK population may already have had the virus without showing symptoms? (feel free to punter me if it's already been posted and i missed it...). Remotely possible or based on poor assumptions?
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-if-half-the-population-already-has-coronavirus-
Have read a few articles, can’t seem to find them now. My takeaway was that the virus itself isn’t the issue, it’s immune system going into overdrive after a slow response initially. This out of control inflammatory reaction precipitates the pneumonia and most serious symptoms.
Logically therefore, viral load would affect the body’s immune response. Equally, the treatment would vary according to the point at which it was caught- immunosuppressants would be needed in a late stage.
This is my understanding of what I read; I can’t vouch for the quality of the science or argument.
I am genuinely fucking clueless about this so science types feel free to laugh but is there a difference between being tested for having the virus and testing if you have previously had it.Anyone knowledgeable who'd care to comment on the Oxford study flagged up that more than half the UK population may already have had the virus without showing symptoms? (feel free to punter me if it's already been posted and i missed it...). Remotely possible or based on poor assumptions?
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-if-half-the-population-already-has-coronavirus-
Obviously, no clue.
Been debating it with Stevie Haston of all people on FB.
But this:
“ As of 9am on 24 March 2020, a total of 90,436 people have been tested, of which 82,359 were confirmed negative and 8,077 were confirmed positive. 422 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.”
From GOV.UK seems to mitigate against the supposition.
Because, were it correct, there should have been far more positive tests.
Unless, by some fluke, they tested everyone who definitely has it seriously and almost nobody who has it very mildly.
But, ultimately, we’re not going to know either way until it’s all but over for this season, surely. Everything else is a artefact of the model’s initial parameters, isn’t it?
I am genuinely fucking clueless about this so science types feel free to laugh but is there a difference between being tested for having the virus and testing if you have previously had it.Anyone knowledgeable who'd care to comment on the Oxford study flagged up that more than half the UK population may already have had the virus without showing symptoms? (feel free to punter me if it's already been posted and i missed it...). Remotely possible or based on poor assumptions?
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-if-half-the-population-already-has-coronavirus-
Obviously, no clue.
Been debating it with Stevie Haston of all people on FB.
But this:
“ As of 9am on 24 March 2020, a total of 90,436 people have been tested, of which 82,359 were confirmed negative and 8,077 were confirmed positive. 422 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.”
From GOV.UK seems to mitigate against the supposition.
Because, were it correct, there should have been far more positive tests.
Unless, by some fluke, they tested everyone who definitely has it seriously and almost nobody who has it very mildly.
But, ultimately, we’re not going to know either way until it’s all but over for this season, surely. Everything else is a artefact of the model’s initial parameters, isn’t it?
This could be an explanation to the opposing ideas/ facts.
No idea as I am clueless about this kind of thing.
It does in part add up to why German, the country who has carried out by far the most testing, has a far lower death to infection ratio than the rest of the EU.
Most people are only testing those that present with symptoms.
Anyone knowledgeable who'd care to comment on the Oxford study flagged up that more than half the UK population may already have had the virus without showing symptoms? (feel free to punter me if it's already been posted and i missed it...). Remotely possible or based on poor assumptions?
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-if-half-the-population-already-has-coronavirus-
So Germany, Singapore, S Korea- massive lockdowns may not be needed if enough testing tracing and quarantining is done from the off?
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-exposes-the-problems-and-pitfalls-of-modelling
This piece suggests the spectator article is just picking up on the most extreme scenario modelled from a selection of hypotheses, essentially playing with numbers to fit the death rates.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-exposes-the-problems-and-pitfalls-of-modelling
This piece suggests the spectator article is just picking up on the most extreme scenario modelled from a selection of hypotheses, essentially playing with numbers to fit the death rates.
I've had a low level headache for about 4 days now, in spite of drinking a lot of water, exercising, eating well and sleeping more than usual. Not bad enough to need paracetamol. I wonder if it's the only symptom I'm showing, or if I'm paranoid.
I've had a low level headache for about 4 days now, in spite of drinking a lot of water, exercising, eating well and sleeping more than usual. Not bad enough to need paracetamol. I wonder if it's the only symptom I'm showing, or if I'm paranoid.
This was sent to a GP friend of a friend and her trust’s NHS staff this morning.
Virus Detection:
The simplest way to distinguish Coronavirus from a Common Cold is that the COVID-19 infection does not cause a cold nose or cough with cold, but it does create a dry and rough cough.
The virus is typically first installed in the throat causing inflammation and a feeling of dryness. This symptom can last between 3 and 4 days.
The virus typically then travels through the moisture present in the airways, goes down to the trachea and installs in the lungs, causing pneumonia that lasts about 5 or 6 days.
Pneumonia manifests with a high fever and difficulty breathing. The Common Cold is not accompanied, but there may be a choking sensation. In this case, the doctor should be called immediately.
Experts suggest doing this simple verification every morning: Breathe in deeply and hold your breath for 10 seconds. If this can be done without coughing, without difficulty, this shows that there is no fibrosis in the lungs, indicating the absence of infection. It is recommended to do this control every morning to help detect infection.
I've had a low level headache for about 4 days now, in spite of drinking a lot of water, exercising, eating well and sleeping more than usual. Not bad enough to need paracetamol. I wonder if it's the only symptom I'm showing, or if I'm paranoid.
Is there any data on how many tests can be globally manufactured and how this might compare with global demand? As dunnyg delights in pointing out, I am in no position of knowledge to criticise government's decision making, but if demand is outstripping supply (which it almost certainly is - vastly) then perhaps it makes sense to keep your powder dry for when you really need it (in a scenario where the lid is blown off the situation and the virus is widespread in the population, this might be approaching and during the peak)?
I think this is symptomatic of spending more time with your wife and children? ;)
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext
On this subect of viral load I thought I should maybe be clearer on what this might likely mean. A very high viral load (say from a seriously ill patient coughing in someone's face) might well kill young healthy people with no underlying conditions.
I think this is symptomatic of spending more time with your wife and children? ;)
Now we are getting used to it, life stress is actually becoming lower than usual. No commute, no getting kids ready for school, no taxi service for the to numerous activities, no getting clothes sorted. If it wan't such a horrific reason for it, I could adapt to life like this.
Stu - the Korean data shows 25% of positive tested <25’s were asymptomatic.
Using absolutely no data or expertise whatsoever, I have arrived at the conclusion that the most outlandish modelling scenarios, which predict that we're either going to be fine or extinct are those that will be picked up by the press and trend best on social media. The truth is likely to be somewhere in the middle and the best analysis will be done retrospectively when we're all talking about Brexit again.
So probably just best to stay at home, wash your hands, and be jolly careful about going to the shops.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext
On this subect of viral load I thought I should maybe be clearer on what this might likely mean. A very high viral load (say from a seriously ill patient coughing in someone's face) might well kill young healthy people with no underlying conditions.
I've heard that said before (from doctors), but this papers doesn't seem to say that. It just says that patients with a more severe condition had a higher viral load when tested than those with a less severe condition. I'm not saying you're wrong, just that that isn't a conclusion you can draw from the paper. Disclaimer - I only skim read it.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/italian-doctors-note-high-covid-19-death-rate-urge-action
A very high viral load [I assume you mean infectious dose] (say from a seriously ill patient coughing in someone's face) might well kill young healthy people with no underlying conditions.
Is there any data on how many tests can be globally manufactured and how this might compare with global demand? As dunnyg delights in pointing out, I am in no position of knowledge to criticise government's decision making, but if demand is outstripping supply (which it almost certainly is - vastly) then perhaps it makes sense to keep your powder dry for when you really need it (in a scenario where the lid is blown off the situation and the virus is widespread in the population, this might be approaching and during the peak)?
Hence the need to regularly test Will....
Hence the need to regularly test Will....
Why do we have to regularly test Will? :-\ :-\
Will/Offwidth/TT
With infections such as this, isn't it well established that the dose (viral load, infectious dose etc. etc.) makes the poison?
If you have a high viral load you are more likely to infect others seriously when coughing etc
My suspicion is that Offwidth is jumping to conclusions because it gives a good opportunity to get cross at the government. As I say, he's probably right, but I wouldn't mind being shown the science behind it so that we can actually understand it fully.
Clearly this makes intuitive sense in that the immune system may find it easier to fight off a lower initial dose, and it accords with anecdotal experience of lots of doctors being seriously ill, but I've not seen any evidence for it.
Can someone critique my maths?
There' an infographic doing the rounds on FB, advocating social distancing and saying
- If 1 person infects 2.5 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 406 infections
- If 1 person infects 1.25 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 15 infections
- If 1 person infects .625 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 2.5 infections
But my rough numbers, when assuming it takes 15 days to become "uninfected and uninfectious" come out as more like 1600, 65 and 0 (it's fudged because doing things in blocks of 5 days doesn't work nicely). Am I wrong or are they?
Saw that and just posted on CD's page.
Isn't it to the power of 6?
If the period is every 5 days, and total is after 30 days, then:
there are 6 of those 5-day periods in 30 days.
So after 30 days,
@ infection rate of 2.5 to power of 6 = 244 people infected
@ infection rate 1.5 to power of 6 = 11 people
@ infection .625 to power of 6 = .006 of a person (doylo, the only one remaining with residual infection)
That's disregarding 'becoming uninfected' which is important in maths terms but unimportant in terms of the message being given.
Caveat I'm a dumbass not a phd
You have to include the original infections i.e. total infections after 5 days = 1 (starting person) + 2.5 (new infections) = 3.5, not the 2.5 that you've assumed. Then 3.5*2.5+3.5 etc... This makes a huge difference after a few cycles.
Interestingly - but obvious really if you think about exponential curves - deducting cases that have expired after 2 weeks makes less difference:
With deductions:1705, 100, 10
Without: 1838, 129,18
Will's point is correct.
We know that those that are more seriously ill have a higher viral load (more of it in their body) and are therefore more likely to infect others (as more of it expelled into the air/onto surfaces).
What seems to be conjecture is that the seriousness of the resulting illness in the person that catches it is dependant on the strength of the initial dose. Clearly this makes intuitive sense in that the immune system may find it easier to fight off a lower initial dose, and it accords with anecdotal experience of lots of doctors being seriously ill, but I've not seen any evidence for it.
I don't mind posters playing devils advocate on theoretical arguments but in the end when dealing with actions relating to current NHS staff risk not reaching crazy levels it's better to do what can be done on whats likely, given what they are about to face. Health staff need to be careful and good PPE gear is vital.
From working for decades around biomedical research staff I thought it was well establised that for most virus infections the initial infection dose mattered (either single size or cumulatively) in severity of subsequent symptoms.
The body's defences have less chance to adapt and defend. I've not seen a paper proving that yet for coronavirus but it's very likely to be the case and it certainly explains the unuusal severity level in young healthy medical staff treating the most seriously infected.
It's very much best to assume it's true if you want to protect NHS staff as well as you can.
Parents monumentally screwed by that self employed package as it doesn't cover small ltd companies who take dividends. This is a significant proportion of the self employed, surely there will have to be a row back over the next few days...This is what he was hinting at when he mentioned future changes. Limited company status has been pushed by accountants for years to people who shouldn’t really be limited as a way to avoid tax. The rope access industry is full of it.
Parents monumentally screwed by that self employed package as it doesn't cover small ltd companies who take dividends. This is a significant proportion of the self employed, surely there will have to be a row back over the next few days...
Someone paying a minimum salary from a limited company then the rest of what really should be salary as dividend saves them selves a fortune in tax and also the company saves on NI. The biggest tax loop hole in the country that is used by tens of thousands.
Have all the CV 19 threads merged into 1 now?
Someone paying a minimum salary from a limited company then the rest of what really should be salary as dividend saves them selves a fortune in tax and also the company saves on NI. The biggest tax loop hole in the country that is used by tens of thousands
As an aside, a lot of companies seem quite happy to be the sole employer of self-employed people on effectively a full time basis, rather than make them employees with increased rights, to save themselves a few bob on NI and holiday pay...as always these things cut both ways.
We employ a few subbies due to necessity but not happy with it.
We prefer to operate a zero hours contract with people if they and we want a flexible agreement. This costs us a bit more but also the employee more and a lot won’t don’t want it.
The construction industry is bad for it but the rope access industry, especially off shore is diabolical.
There was almost a wry smile on the chancellors face as he mentioned how things needed to change.
If you here a sole trader/ Ltd rope access worker complaining about the deal they are getting tell them to go fuck themselves. As they should be able to look after themselves with all the tax they haven’t paid.
I’m all for applauding those on the front line putting themselves in danger, they are massively heroic. However, does anyone else see the irony in the general public clapping the NHS when many having only recently voted to continue running it into the ground? :wall:
t; even if you disagree with their company structure (which incidentally is recommended by accountants everywhere as you know) they are skint just like everyone else and have mortgages to pay. Some of the comments smack of schadenfreude a little.
accountants ( for who I have the same regard as politicians)
Some interesting points regarding the self employed. I know there is a significant amount of piss taking that goes on but on the other hand (I know I would say this!) the caricature you have presented of tax dodging one man bands does not match what my parents do! I would have no objection to closing loopholes but its a bit rich to prioritise this one when big corporations get away with blue murder at the other end of the scale isn't it? More generally, personally this seems a poor time to explicitly exclude people from state support; even if you disagree with their company structure (which incidentally is recommended by accountants everywhere as you know) they are skint just like everyone else and have mortgages to pay. Some of the comments smack of schadenfreude a little.
Don't know if this is useful and I'm pushed for time so this may not make much sense - hoping to give a flavour from the front line that's not the NHS...
Take care people - in my opinion, it's going to get much worse before it gets better...
More generally, personally this seems a poor time to explicitly exclude people from state support; even if you disagree with their company structure (which incidentally is recommended by accountants everywhere as you know) they are skint just like everyone else and have mortgages to pay. Some of the comments smack of schadenfreude a little.
My point being, you tarred a lot of people with a very broad brush.
I'd like to see more people here doing stuff to help others and less moaning
Some interesting points regarding the self employed. I know there is a significant amount of piss taking that goes on but on the other hand (I know I would say this!) the caricature you have presented of tax dodging one man bands does not match what my parents do! I would have no objection to closing loopholes but its a bit rich to prioritise this one when big corporations get away with blue murder at the other end of the scale isn't it? More generally, personally this seems a poor time to explicitly exclude people from state support; even if you disagree with their company structure (which incidentally is recommended by accountants everywhere as you know) they are skint just like everyone else and have mortgages to pay. Some of the comments smack of schadenfreude a little.
Not that we’ve ever drawn one, however a Dividend is taxable. At a lower rate than income tax, but that’s meant to reflect the risk. Most company directors draw a salary, on which they pay NI and IT as required.
I understand your “one man band” image, however, the type you describe is not what a LTD company was supposed to be and is, surely, illegal? If you are aware of such, shouldn’t you be reporting it? You seem to believe it’s wrong, after all.
When I ran Avalon G, I was a sole director. My insurance company wouldn’t have covered a sole trader to carry out that kind of work.
(I was not the sole shareholder, though), all the surveyors on the team were subcontractors.
Actually, we all subcontracted to each other, each of us having a different specialty. The arrangement allowed us to cover a lot of ground without keeping a large staff on payroll.
Not every investigation I carried out required a physical security consultant, for instance. On the other hand, sometimes you needed a finishings and coating surveyor on the same tasking as an Anti-piracy/terrorism consultant.
My point being, you tarred a lot of people with a very broad brush.
My point being, you tarred a lot of people with a very broad brush.
Indeed ... if its illegal (evasion), report it; if it's not (avoidance) campaign to have the tax loopholes closed.
You have absolutely no idea what anyone on here is doing to help.
I understand the reason you describe but at the same time did you choose to pay a realistic salary or, as in most cases, the tax free allowance level then dividend. If it’s the later it’s only done to avoid paying tax. Therefore you should not expect money back from the tax pot you avoided paying into when things are hard.
You have absolutely no idea what anyone on here is doing to help.
Tell us then.... link to others doing great stuff.... this is not the time for 'traditional british modesty'.
Neil Ferguson from Imperial (the key group informing UK policy) is having his optimism broadcast in the US now... what do others think about this? Will the NHS be stressed but not break??
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-nhs-london-hospitals-lockdown-boris-johnson-neil-ferguson-a9426756.html
Some interesting points regarding the self employed. I know there is a significant amount of piss taking that goes on but on the other hand (I know I would say this!) the caricature you have presented of tax dodging one man bands does not match what my parents do! I would have no objection to closing loopholes but its a bit rich to prioritise this one when big corporations get away with blue murder at the other end of the scale isn't it? More generally, personally this seems a poor time to explicitly exclude people from state support; even if you disagree with their company structure (which incidentally is recommended by accountants everywhere as you know) they are skint just like everyone else and have mortgages to pay. Some of the comments smack of schadenfreude a little.
Not that we’ve ever drawn one, however a Dividend is taxable. At a lower rate than income tax, but that’s meant to reflect the risk. Most company directors draw a salary, on which they pay NI and IT as required.
I understand your “one man band” image, however, the type you describe is not what a LTD company was supposed to be and is, surely, illegal? If you are aware of such, shouldn’t you be reporting it? You seem to believe it’s wrong, after all.
When I ran Avalon G, I was a sole director. My insurance company wouldn’t have covered a sole trader to carry out that kind of work.
(I was not the sole shareholder, though), all the surveyors on the team were subcontractors.
Actually, we all subcontracted to each other, each of us having a different specialty. The arrangement allowed us to cover a lot of ground without keeping a large staff on payroll.
Not every investigation I carried out required a physical security consultant, for instance. On the other hand, sometimes you needed a finishings and coating surveyor on the same tasking as an Anti-piracy/terrorism consultant.
My point being, you tarred a lot of people with a very broad brush.
I understand the reason you describe but at the same time did you choose to pay a realistic salary or, as in most cases, the tax free allowance level then dividend. If it’s the later it’s only done to avoid paying tax. Therefore you should not expect money back from the tax pot you avoided paying into when things are hard.
A peach of bad reporting Spectator ness for those interested https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1243266492063461376?s=21
The academic source turns out to be a retired (Imperial) Prof of micro-engineering....
Otherwise for those who prefer arguments to civilised discourse on important topics I can bill for five minutes at standard rate or at a discount for 10.
Yes it is. This is not a fun charity event. I'm sure everyone is doing something without expecting a round of applause from the neighbourhood.
Some interesting points regarding the self employed. I know there is a significant amount of piss taking that goes on but on the other hand (I know I would say this!) the caricature you have presented of tax dodging one man bands does not match what my parents do! I would have no objection to closing loopholes but its a bit rich to prioritise this one when big corporations get away with blue murder at the other end of the scale isn't it? More generally, personally this seems a poor time to explicitly exclude people from state support; even if you disagree with their company structure (which incidentally is recommended by accountants everywhere as you know) they are skint just like everyone else and have mortgages to pay. Some of the comments smack of schadenfreude a little.
Not that we’ve ever drawn one, however a Dividend is taxable. At a lower rate than income tax, but that’s meant to reflect the risk. Most company directors draw a salary, on which they pay NI and IT as required.
I understand your “one man band” image, however, the type you describe is not what a LTD company was supposed to be and is, surely, illegal? If you are aware of such, shouldn’t you be reporting it? You seem to believe it’s wrong, after all.
When I ran Avalon G, I was a sole director. My insurance company wouldn’t have covered a sole trader to carry out that kind of work.
(I was not the sole shareholder, though), all the surveyors on the team were subcontractors.
Actually, we all subcontracted to each other, each of us having a different specialty. The arrangement allowed us to cover a lot of ground without keeping a large staff on payroll.
Not every investigation I carried out required a physical security consultant, for instance. On the other hand, sometimes you needed a finishings and coating surveyor on the same tasking as an Anti-piracy/terrorism consultant.
My point being, you tarred a lot of people with a very broad brush.
I understand the reason you describe but at the same time did you choose to pay a realistic salary or, as in most cases, the tax free allowance level then dividend. If it’s the later it’s only done to avoid paying tax. Therefore you should not expect money back from the tax pot you avoided paying into when things are hard.
I asked for a fact check on something I'd seen copied and pasted to Facebook. Your response was to link to an article which did not answer the question
Yes it is. This is not a fun charity event. I'm sure everyone is doing something without expecting a round of applause from the neighbourhood.
In a time of crisis how do people judge.... what or who it's best to support, things that worked and things that didn't, important practical considerations, etc... if everyone keeps quiet about it. It's fuck all to do with expecting applause.
The whole dividend thing isn’t exactly a loophole, it exists to encourage entrepreneurs to start small businesses, and to create jobs for people, yes it’s used by one man bands to milk the system, but it’s definitely not that simple.
The whole dividend thing isnt exactly a loophole, it exists to encourage entrepreneurs to start small businesses, and to create jobs for people, yes its used by one man bands to milk the system, but its definitely not that simple.
We need new words to split the two types of tax avoidance. Commentators on the right are often saying things like "stop moaning you hypocrites, all tax breaks are avoidance".. it's a ''squirrel distraction defence' to detract from their own dishonesty. Tax incentive schemes, set up for good reasons, get exploited by dishonest accountants and clients to do something else: that is an avoidance loophole that needs closing in law. I think most people paying tax, most of the time avoid tax legally for fair reasons.
If you want to constantly reinvent the wheel and be inefficient. My engineering side and experience with people who work in charities and other NGOs, tells me 'coal face' communication is very important. Fatneck's post is a perfect illustration to me.
If you want to constantly reinvent the wheel and be inefficient. My engineering side and experience with people who work in charities and other NGOs, tells me 'coal face' communication is very important. Fatneck's post is a perfect illustration to me.
::) Patronisingtwat. My 'being a human being' side gives me inside knowledge too.
Before we all get carried away (i.e. people thinking that the Tories have suddenly move rapidly leftwards and we're about to get permanently nationalised industries and a significant increase in the size of the state; also Jeremy Corbyn crowing that he was proved right etc etc etc), it might be worth bearing in mind that the government's financial measures are a temporary response to an unprecedented threat.
I think that a lot of the government's action has been highly commendable, but I can't see it continuing once we're back to business as usual.
Where are all these M3s? Even the local drug middle mangement on my main road (the infamous St Anns Wells Road) seem to have the sense to drive stuff that doesnt attract unknown attention to their illegal business. I know quite a few people running single person Ltd companies from high tech down to trade and most seem honest to me.Hi from Notts!! there was a bloke on the Trent Bridge bouldering last night when I went for my daily outdoor exercise not seen that for a while.
The NCP view on charity work during the pandemic:
https://www.thinknpc.org/resource-hub/coronavirus-guide/
On tax fiddlesweI just don't know (it's all anecdote here). I'd rather give most the benefit of the doubt.
Before we all get carried away (i.e. people thinking that the Tories have suddenly move rapidly leftwards and we're about to get permanently nationalised industries and a significant increase in the size of the state; also Jeremy Corbyn crowing that he was proved right etc etc etc), it might be worth bearing in mind that the government's financial measures are a temporary response to an unprecedented threat.
I think that a lot of the government's action has been highly commendable, but I can't see it continuing once we're back to business as usual.
The fiscal response to coronavirus went from 12bn to 300bn to unlimited over the same two weeks.
If this is commendable in the current context, why not at other times?
The fiscal response to coronavirus went from 12bn to 300bn to unlimited over the same two weeks.
If this is commendable in the current context, why not at other times?
I don't hold an ideological position and I'm no economist, but I suspect most people's instinctive answer would be 'because it wiped out ours and every other nation's economies to take these measures'.
Habrich and others can debate the details, but if we were to continue with the same measures as the norm, wouldn't JB's point about 'money being illusory' have to apply and every country would have to be on the same page? Otherwise in a global market how would you prevent competitive advantage going to nations who reverted to the economic model of pre covid emergency?
Good chart from the FT: Stars show when lockdown started. Lines start at 10th recorded death.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUEVzQoWkAEsn4j?format=jpg&name=small)
The fiscal response to coronavirus went from 12bn to 300bn to unlimited over the same two weeks.
If this is commendable in the current context, why not at other times?
I don't hold an ideological position and I'm no economist, but I suspect most people's instinctive answer would be 'because it wiped out ours and every other nation's economies to take these measures'.
The fiscal response to coronavirus went from 12bn to 300bn to unlimited over the same two weeks.
If this is commendable in the current context, why not at other times?
I don't hold an ideological position and I'm no economist, but I suspect most people's instinctive answer would be 'because it wiped out ours and every other nation's economies to take these measures'.
Habrich and others can debate the details, but if we were to continue with the same measures as the norm, wouldn't JB's point about 'money being illusory' have to apply and every country would have to be on the same page? Otherwise in a global market how would you prevent competitive advantage going to nations who reverted to the economic model of pre covid emergency?
Isn’t it all ok as long as you call it “monetary easing” and don’t say “printing money”?
On tax fiddlesweI just don't know (it's all anecdote here). I'd rather give most the benefit of the doubt.
Correction - *you* don't know; and for you it's anecdotes. Some of us *do* know, and for us it isn't anecdotes it's our realm and we do business with these people and/or have been these people.
Interesting to see what happens in the Netherlands.
I’m all for applauding those on the front line putting themselves in danger, they are massively heroic. However, does anyone else see the irony in the general public clapping the NHS when many having only recently voted to continue running it into the ground? :wall:
I'm not sure that trying to make a political statement here is in any way helpful. Now is the time that hopefully everyone just listens to what the PM, CMO, etc keep saying and just stay the f*** at home.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/advice-on-protective-gear-for-nhs-staff-was-rejected-owing-to-cost?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
More in line with this page, are people aware of what is going on in Holland. ... The dutch attitude is very much full steam ahead
So you know some people who fiddle their taxes..... I presume you know some who don’t.... to say that you know for a fact that most people that pay themselves through dividends are on the fiddle seems a little presumptuous. Maybe in your world but not across the board.
As someone who for the last ten years has employed self-employed subbies almost weekly and who's got to know many of them and their ...ahem approaches to tax... I can fully appreciate the impossible task of trying to come up with fair financial aid scheme for the self-employed in this circumstance.
Consider for e.g. the offshore worker who boasts of earning £50k and is proud of the fact he doesn't pay a penny in income tax or national insurance - like many of these guys, he runs a 'limited company', pays himself a company 'dividend' and writes off all possible profits that he can against the purchase of (non-existent) 'essential work equipment and plant' along with various other fraudulent ruses. By the way his father's in the local hospital being treated for a heart attack but he doesn't twig that the treatment's paid for by the taxes he's dodging.
Under this government aid scheme this person will get 80% of 0, because he doesn't make a profit right?
If this person ends up in financial hardship I find it difficult to generate much sympathy for his plight. A proportion of these types of guys (nearly always guys) spend their lives doing their utmost not to contribute their share to the welfare net when it suits them, instead squandering their (inflated) wages on toys.
Then on the other end of the spectrum, the person working from home providing some service or trade, making a reasonable living and who declares all their income. They'll get 80% of their declared profits which seems fair (although a 2 month wait for it).
Somewhere in the middle there'll be various tradespeople who do a range of stuff, on a spectrum of fully working for cash to fully declared for tax. There are so many combinations of circumstances it's hard to come up with something fair to all.
Not trying to be divisive, just that I've dealt with a lot of the former types (and was probably guilty of being one to a small degree a long time ago) and it's interesting to see this play out now they're in need of a state-funded welfare net. Lots of expensive toys going cheap on ebay..
So you know some people who fiddle their taxes..... I presume you know some who don’t.... to say that you know for a fact that most people that pay themselves through dividends are on the fiddle seems a little presumptuous. Maybe in your world but not across the board.
How about just taking a look back to the beginning of the posts about self-employed and reading what I actually said? Instead of attributing to me words I haven't said and then arguing against them.
I agree with you.
I can repeat it here:QuoteAs someone who for the last ten years has employed self-employed subbies almost weekly and who's got to know many of them and their ...ahem approaches to tax... I can fully appreciate the impossible task of trying to come up with fair financial aid scheme for the self-employed in this circumstance.
Consider for e.g. the offshore worker who boasts of earning £50k and is proud of the fact he doesn't pay a penny in income tax or national insurance - like many of these guys, he runs a 'limited company', pays himself a company 'dividend' and writes off all possible profits that he can against the purchase of (non-existent) 'essential work equipment and plant' along with various other fraudulent ruses. By the way his father's in the local hospital being treated for a heart attack but he doesn't twig that the treatment's paid for by the taxes he's dodging.
Under this government aid scheme this person will get 80% of 0, because he doesn't make a profit right?
If this person ends up in financial hardship I find it difficult to generate much sympathy for his plight. A proportion of these types of guys (nearly always guys) spend their lives doing their utmost not to contribute their share to the welfare net when it suits them, instead squandering their (inflated) wages on toys.
Then on the other end of the spectrum, the person working from home providing some service or trade, making a reasonable living and who declares all their income. They'll get 80% of their declared profits which seems fair (although a 2 month wait for it).
Somewhere in the middle there'll be various tradespeople who do a range of stuff, on a spectrum of fully working for cash to fully declared for tax. There are so many combinations of circumstances it's hard to come up with something fair to all.
Not trying to be divisive, just that I've dealt with a lot of the former types (and was probably guilty of being one to a small degree a long time ago) and it's interesting to see this play out now they're in need of a state-funded welfare net. Lots of expensive toys going cheap on ebay..
The belgians even more so. I have a business there as well and we are on full lockdown there. Our offices are 60km apart and operating in two diferent worlds at the minute.More in line with this page, are people aware of what is going on in Holland. ... The dutch attitude is very much full steam ahead
... and German states on that side of the country have been screaming at Merkel to close the border for over a week now.
Could this part of the thread and ongoing conversation please be moved to the CV economics and finance thread?
Thanks Everyone,
Pete, I think you're right that other viruses (like flu and SARS type viruses) do show this behaviour. But I don't think it's yet been demonstrated in COVID-19 (or rather, I haven't seen it demonstrated).
'Attended' my first ever virtual funeral yesterday. It's sad for all but close family not to be able to be at such things but the concept worked well and maybe should become standard to console those unable to travel.
I nearly didn't make it to a very dear friend's funeral due to Storm Ciara. Up until a couple of weeks ago I thought that was going to have been the stressful part of the year!
I thought this was a great (if simplified) look at how various strategies affect the outcome.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs
I thought this was a great (if simplified) look at how various strategies affect the outcome.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs
Just watched this, posted this on the other climbing thread, anyone think it's incorrect?:
https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30540.msg602903/topicseen.html#new (https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30540.msg602903/topicseen.html#new)
US Deaths doubled since Friday. 2k today.
Advice for Gumtree users
Stay home
As we all know, it’s imperative that everyone follows Government advice and stays home. So please do not arrange face-to-face contact with anyone. By staying at home you are helping protect people who are vulnerable even if you believe you are not.
Use collection and delivery services
Look to use a delivery service where possible. Home collection and delivery services, although much in demand, are still available and we advise you to use these through a postal service, courier or a local delivery driver.
Use an online payments system
We recommend buyers and sellers use an online payments system, which may also offer payment protection, in addition to avoiding face-to-face contact.
Can you explain to me how getting Person A (seller) to pass to Person B (buyer), while maintaining 2m distance, cleaning hands etc.(1 human to human contact, albeit at "social distance"), is worse than Getting Person A to organise a delivery via Company Z, which will then have to have office workers, mechanics, cleaners etc. etc. to pick up (contact 1) from Person A, then drive to Person B (contact 2), then go home, maybe via a petrol station (contact 3) back to family (contact 4,5,6)?
I am fully on board with minimising contact, but what you suggest does not do this at all
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/30/las-vegas-parking-lot-homeless-shelter
Was just about to post that article. That has to be one of the single most depressing pictures I have ever seen. Catastrophic failure of rich western society to manage to even provide the most basic of human needs, shelter, to some of the most vulnerable. Sickening.
There are no human studies that show whether NAD replenishment will in fact have any effect on COVID-19 symptoms. The animal studies suggest that it might. The human studies only show that Vitamin B3s are safe and effective at replenishing NAD.
As Bonjoy pointed out there’s not much opportunity for transmission in the sea...
Classical approaches generally posit that the world is one way (e.g., a parameter has one particular true value), and try to conduct experiments whose resulting conclusion -- no matter the true value of the parameter -- will be correct with at least some minimum probability.
As a result, to express uncertainty in our knowledge after an experiment, the frequentist approach uses a "confidence interval" -- a range of values designed to include the true value of the parameter with some minimum probability, say 95%. A frequentist will design the experiment and 95% confidence interval procedure so that out of every 100 experiments run start to finish, at least 95 of the resulting confidence intervals will be expected to include the true value of the parameter. The other 5 might be slightly wrong, or they might be complete nonsense -- formally speaking that's ok as far as the approach is concerned, as long as 95 out of 100 inferences are correct. (Of course we would prefer them to be slightly wrong, not total nonsense.)
Bayesian approaches formulate the problem differently. Instead of saying the parameter simply has one (unknown) true value, a Bayesian method says the parameter's value is fixed but has been chosen from some probability distribution -- known as the prior probability distribution. (Another way to say that is that before taking any measurements, the Bayesian assigns a probability distribution, which they call a belief state, on what the true value of the parameter happens to be.) This "prior" might be known (imagine trying to estimate the size of a truck, if we know the overall distribution of truck sizes from the DMV) or it might be an assumption drawn out of thin air. The Bayesian inference is simpler -- we collect some data, and then calculate the probability of different values of the parameter GIVEN the data. This new probability distribution is called the "a posteriori probability" or simply the "posterior." Bayesian approaches can summarize their uncertainty by giving a range of values on the posterior probability distribution that includes 95% of the probability -- this is called a "95% credibility interval."
A Bayesian partisan might criticize the frequentist confidence interval like this: "So what if 95 out of 100 experiments yield a confidence interval that includes the true value? I don't care about 99 experiments I DIDN'T DO; I care about this experiment I DID DO. Your rule allows 5 out of the 100 to be complete nonsense [negative values, impossible values] as long as the other 95 are correct; that's ridiculous."
A frequentist die-hard might criticize the Bayesian credibility interval like this: "So what if 95% of the posterior probability is included in this range? What if the true value is, say, 0.37? If it is, then your method, run start to finish, will be WRONG 75% of the time. Your response is, 'Oh well, that's ok because according to the prior it's very rare that the value is 0.37,' and that may be so, but I want a method that works for ANY possible value of the parameter. I don't care about 99 values of the parameter that IT DOESN'T HAVE; I care about the one true value IT DOES HAVE. Oh also, by the way, your answers are only correct if the prior is correct. If you just pull it out of thin air because it feels right, you can be way off."
In a sense both of these partisans are correct in their criticisms of each others' methods, but I would urge you to think mathematically about the distinction -- as Srikant explains.
Noticed it used 'credible interval' instead of 'confidence interval' in its estimate that the European distancing measures:
'saved 59,000 deaths up to 31 March [95% credible interval 21,000-120,000]
...
I was wondering, is the uncertainty in the estimate (21,000 to 120,000 lives saved) due to us not knowing the 'posterior' probabilities with high confidence?
It’s clear that only very clear interventions (China) or massive testing and tracing efforts (Korea - and probably soon Germany) do anything.
QuoteIt’s clear that only very clear interventions (China) or massive testing and tracing efforts (Korea - and probably soon Germany) do anything.
So what's going on in Japan? The Americans I follow seem to think it's widespread mask wearing and the WHO are wrong in suggesting they are only useful for the infected and those caring for them.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/30/las-vegas-parking-lot-homeless-shelter
Sickening. Surely there are empty hotels? Even abandoned ones would be better than this.
How’s Mrs Galpinos view on all the CV19 stuff Nick?
QuoteIt’s clear that only very clear interventions (China) or massive testing and tracing efforts (Korea - and probably soon Germany) do anything.
So what's going on in Japan? The Americans I follow seem to think it's widespread mask wearing and the WHO are wrong in suggesting they are only useful for the infected and those caring for them.
QuoteIt’s clear that only very clear interventions (China) or massive testing and tracing efforts (Korea - and probably soon Germany) do anything.
So what's going on in Japan? The Americans I follow seem to think it's widespread mask wearing and the WHO are wrong in suggesting they are only useful for the infected and those caring for them.
I wondered about Japan when this was all starting to go global. They've among the lowest rates of testing, they haven't enforced much of a lock-down, and they have the world's oldest population (but it says in the article below the old in Japan are much more separated from the rest of society than in Europe).
Quite a good overview article here which looks at various theories, including that they just might not be reporting: https://www.vox.com/covid-19-coronavirus-explainers/2020/3/28/21196382/japan-coronavirus-cases-covid-19-deaths-quarantine (https://www.vox.com/covid-19-coronavirus-explainers/2020/3/28/21196382/japan-coronavirus-cases-covid-19-deaths-quarantine)
Don't read the 'elderly tragically separated' article it's just sad.
Denver stay-at-home (lockdown) extended to April 30th. I really hope we can get through this in time for the Alpine season in summer but the chance is looking smaller and smaller...
Simple explainer on the issues involved in modelling future Covid deaths:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/)
563.
Today.
I know, stupid to post the number. Pointless, negative, unsurprising.
I just feel the need to acknowledge it, somehow.
Makes 20k seem like a dream outcome. Very sorry to say that...
I'm fairly sure a couple of weeks ago when Chris Witty first started mentioning 20,000 deaths he used that figure in the context of the peak. I think this has been subtly altered to imply it will be 20,000 in total.
Have you watched that Sky News thing Matt linked gme? It suggests that the Netherlands and Germany are heading in basically the same direction as all the other European countries.
Have you watched that Sky News thing Matt linked gme? It suggests that the Netherlands and Germany are heading in basically the same direction as all the other European countries.
NL and Belgium all heading the same way as us. My jury is still out on Germany.
It is remarkable how similar they all actually are.
And Grim.
(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fb75b9a72-7394-11ea-95fe-fcd274e920ca?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1260)
This doesn't make it look like the Netherlands are doing much better than any other European country. Not worse, but not much better either.
(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fb75b9a72-7394-11ea-95fe-fcd274e920ca?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1260)
This doesn't make it look like the Netherlands are doing much better than any other European country. Not worse, but not much better either.
(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fb75b9a72-7394-11ea-95fe-fcd274e920ca?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1260)
This doesn't make it look like the Netherlands are doing much better than any other European country. Not worse, but not much better either.
Do you think people in the UK would buy into a Chinese style isolation system?
Basically contact tracing on steroids. If you have symptoms, you (and your immediate contacts) get taken to a makeshift holding area (hotel, Uni dorms etc) to await testing.
Anyone who tests positive goes straight to an isolation hospital. If you test negative you can go home.
The advantage is it allows you to focus testing where it’s needed. But it needs massive buy in from the public - there’s a huge disincentive to pretend you don’t have symptoms.
I’m actually quite optimistic that the current regime is just enough, but if it isn’t the above is probably the best way to avoid total clampdown...
With the 'didn't see it coming / dropping the ball' argument, you have to ask the question:
Would it have been palatable to the population to be locked-down 3 or 4 weeks earlier than we did? I'd say no.
Agree with both of you OMM/TT in principle. But I think it's fruitless to compare with what we aren't and couldn't have been.
For example, if loads of us who live in rural areas had little tractors with a snowplough blade that we could fit in November like they do in alpine and northern Scandinavian regions, then we wouldn't have all the blocked country roads that we (don't) get every winter... I.e. we don't suffer from heavy snow in winter enough to make the countermeasures seem worthwhile.
If we'd had a pandemic like those countries did, or a political system like China does, or xyz, then we could have done things differently. Offwidth will probably disagree but he's coming from a mindset of fault-finding anything this government does, almost on principle. I'm not saying fault-finding isn't useful, I think fault-finding is essential to improve the scope of future responses to a next crisis. Sure aspire to better standards. But I don't see any use in fault-finding by comparing to standards that were unrealistic at the time. Seems a bit 'historical revisionism'.
It’s not really fair to try and say “we had no choice because we’re not an authoritarian regime like China, so none of this can be helped”;
It’s not really fair to try and say “we had no choice because we’re not an authoritarian regime like China, so none of this can be helped”;
Pretty sure I'm not saying that.
I agree there'll be no shortage of questions and answers.
It would however, have been doable to impose a lockdown a week to 5 days earlier, and I think it would have got traction - that would certainly have saved a lot of lives, but it's hindsight, and I don't think the gov have been that bad with the timings.
The lack of test and trace, on the other hand is a fucking scandal and once this is over there should be some consequential questions asked of those responsible.
Why are people insisting on comparisons to China - it's clearly not a good fit. S Korea is much better in size and liberties - they have the huge advantage of experience of SARS and MERS (Covid is basically SARS2 as I understand?), but we should have been looking to them from the start
I also think that if we start antibody testing, so people who've had it can start to go out/work etc as I have seen proposed, that will be the absolute end of the lockdown.
That’s a super important point. Controlling the return back to work could be really hard... if you let a few back there will be all sorts of shit going on. People doing tests for their mates, people not wanting to go back. People who’ve not had it being really nervous / resentful of those returning...
Hard to see how you manage it other than an all back or no one back scenario.
There doesn't seem to be a plan to end the lockdown. I would like to say that obviously the government will have a plan but my confidence in them isn't exactly soaring at the moment.
Holland - Economy tiking along nicely, little disruption to the constrution industry, far fewer rules and regulations, no lockdown.
How is there curve flattening more than ours and daily new cases dropping. I still cant help but think we are doing something wrong here.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands/
That’s a super important point. Controlling the return back to work could be really hard... if you let a few back there will be all sorts of shit going on. People doing tests for their mates, people not wanting to go back. People who’ve not had it being really nervous / resentful of those returning...
Hard to see how you manage it other than an all back or no one back scenario.
I agree, a partial return for the "immune" will lead to people looking at those out and about and just thinking, sod it, I'm going out too, people trying to get infected in order to recover and then go out and find work, it could only be policed bif we bring in some draconian rules, there will be no end of issues.
There doesn't seem to be a plan to end the lockdown. I would like to say that obviously the government will have a plan but my confidence in them isn't exactly soaring at the moment.
There doesn't seem to be a plan to end the lockdown. I would like to say that obviously the government will have a plan but my confidence in them isn't exactly soaring at the moment.
I'm not sure any non-communist dictatorship country has a feasible plan in place to gradually reverse their lockdown so i wouldn't think too badly of the government for not having figured it out yet...
There doesn't seem to be a plan to end the lockdown. I would like to say that obviously the government will have a plan but my confidence in them isn't exactly soaring at the moment.
I'm not sure any non-communist dictatorship country has a feasible plan in place to gradually reverse their lockdown so i wouldn't think too badly of the government for not having figured it out yet...
I'll hazard a guess;
1) Resume as much industry / manufacturing as possible, possibly on low output, maintaining social distancing as well as possible
2) Reopen retail, with social distancing rules
3) Reopen restaurants and pubs, at limited times only.
4) reopen school / let people go back to offices
5) release travel restrictions, first locally, then internationally
6) reopen schools
7) reopen tertiary ed
8) Allow small gatherings; cinemas etc
9) allow larger gatherings; concerts and sports events
And if infection numbers start to rise, go back to lockdown and start again.
A guess anyway.
Re my point about Holland. I am well aware of the stats and the fact that they are 5th worse in the world for deaths per population. And am aware they are following exactly the same curve as us.
Re my point about Holland. I am well aware of the stats and the fact that they are 5th worse in the world for deaths per population. And am aware they are following exactly the same curve as us.
They are only following the same curve as us because the death rates are 2-4 weeks behind infections. If lockdowns work, our curve will start flattening off in a couple of weeks, whereas Holland will still have an exponential rise. In other words, we can't say whether Holland's approach works, or will prove to be a catastrophic misreading of the situation, for another few weeks.
There doesn't seem to be a plan to end the lockdown. I would like to say that obviously the government will have a plan but my confidence in them isn't exactly soaring at the moment.
I'm not sure any non-communist dictatorship country has a feasible plan in place to gradually reverse their lockdown so i wouldn't think too badly of the government for not having figured it out yet...
I'll hazard a guess;
1) Resume as much industry / manufacturing as possible, possibly on low output, maintaining social distancing as well as possible
2) Reopen retail, with social distancing rules
3) Reopen restaurants and pubs, at limited times only.
4) reopen school / let people go back to offices
5) release travel restrictions, first locally, then internationally
6) reopen schools
7) reopen tertiary ed
8) Allow small gatherings; cinemas etc
9) allow larger gatherings; concerts and sports events
And if infection numbers start to rise, go back to lockdown and start again.
A guess anyway.
Would have thought this is pretty accurate but think the big business sporting events will come earlier than pubs restaurants and climbing walls/gyms. Money talks.
Most on here just seem to dismiss that there are other options other than either a full lockdown or mass testing but ignore the facts that other places are doing less without damaging there economy as much as we are.
And for all those on here that seem to think that this will somehow move us away from capitalism as we know it I fear you couldn’t be more wrong and I think it will properly fuck up the EU project.
I am not saying it’s unnecessary at all just pointing out that there maybe other options. I am towing the line completely both as an individual and as a business. We were actually the first to stop site works in our industry as we felt it was the correct thing to do.Re my point about Holland. I am well aware of the stats and the fact that they are 5th worse in the world for deaths per population. And am aware they are following exactly the same curve as us.
They are only following the same curve as us because the death rates are 2-4 weeks behind infections. If lockdowns work, our curve will start flattening off in a couple of weeks, whereas Holland will still have an exponential rise. In other words, we can't say whether Holland's approach works, or will prove to be a catastrophic misreading of the situation, for another few weeks.
Plus, how does losing a more significant % of your population (which is what is happening in the Netherlands) actually affect your economy, in the long term?
How will the Dutch public respond, should their death rate continue to climb, steeply, when the rest of Europe starts to plateau?
How will others view a nation, unwilling to sacrifice to preserve it’s vulnerable?
You alway focus on the economic impact GME,do you want to convince us all that it’s unnecessary?
If our lockdown, flattens that curve and people who don’t need to die, don’t, then it’s worth it.
We can’t predict what will happen, not really, only act on the best modelling and (what are) educated guesses.
Since almost every model, without strict(ish) measures leads to exponential growth, overwhelmed medical facilities and people dying (even of things unrelated to COVID), how, how, does doing anything other than playing safe, make sense.
Most on here just seem to dismiss that there are other options other than either a full lockdown or mass testing but ignore the facts that other places are doing less without damaging there economy as much as we are.
And for all those on here that seem to think that this will somehow move us away from capitalism as we know it I fear you couldn’t be more wrong and I think it will properly fuck up the EU project.
Apologies if I was being patronising. What Ru said. I have not much idea what the best approach is. I take my lead from work colleagues (in a medical school public health department) who think UK decision-making has been influenced far too much by theoreticians and not enough by public health people with on-the-ground experience. But I suppose they would say that.
Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR between 0.1% and 0.26%.
This site
There are no human studies that show whether NAD replenishment will in fact have any effect on COVID-19 symptoms. The animal studies suggest that it might. The human studies only show that Vitamin B3s are safe and effective at replenishing NAD.
Good enough for me to buy some and give it a try if any of my family get symptoms
There are no human studies that show whether NAD replenishment will in fact have any effect on COVID-19 symptoms. The animal studies suggest that it might. The human studies only show that Vitamin B3s are safe and effective at replenishing NAD.
Good enough for me to buy some and give it a try if any of my family get symptoms
Another study hypothesising the role of B3 (NR, NMN or Niacin) - among other strategies - in protection against severe covid symptoms.
https://www.aging-us.com/article/102988/text (https://www.aging-us.com/article/102988/text)
That's at least three papers now hypothesising a role for B3.
If our lockdown, flattens that curve and people who don’t need to die, don’t, then it’s worth it.
Where do you get 0.2% from?Was that to me? Pete quoted it but it wasnt the first time I'd heard.
Gav, all you have to do to know the future is scale up Holland's total infections (not reported infections) to the hundreds of thousands (or a million). Why wouldn't this happen? In a population not in isolation why wouldn't the infection spread in people there the same as anywhere else in the world not in isolation, all other things being equal.
Then, apply an infection death rate of 0.1% - 0.26%* of all infections (not reported infections). Tells you all you need to know.
* infection fatality rate estimate from Center for Evidence Based Medicine (https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/)Quote from: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR between 0.1% and 0.26%.
This site
The site above is updated regularly with latest estimates of IFR and CFR based on updated evidence. Good for getting your head around the various fatality estimates and why they're constantly fluctuating.
There are no human studies that show whether NAD replenishment will in fact have any effect on COVID-19 symptoms. The animal studies suggest that it might. The human studies only show that Vitamin B3s are safe and effective at replenishing NAD.
Good enough for me to buy some and give it a try if any of my family get symptoms
Another study hypothesising the role of B3 (NR, NMN or Niacin) - among other strategies - in protection against severe covid symptoms.
https://www.aging-us.com/article/102988/text (https://www.aging-us.com/article/102988/text)
That's at least three papers now hypothesising a role for B3.
I'd just be pretty careful at this point Pete. With CV19 everything is being published in pre-print format with scant or no peer review... this is important to save time getting any new ideas out - but also removes an important quality filter...
If the death rate is really in the 0.2% ballpark then I really cant see how this isnt a massive over reaction. We are going to be paying for this for years to come with ever decreasing living standards and hospital closures etc. That comes at a cost.
Theres some analysis to be done somewhere showing what lockdown policy is worth what death reduction and I'm not sure 0.2% justifies the current one.
Theres also the policy itself. I think a lot of countries have sort of followed china but not done a good job of it. If wuhan had a proper lockdown and lots of support from the rest of china to make that stick, then the uk lockdown is at best a minority fraction of it. Buses and trains are still running. By this stage in wuhan they had been cancelled for a fortnight.
An analogy with antibiotics - don't just take them every other day for two days, take the full dose for a week or dont bother.
Have I got this wrong still - is no cost too high to save 0.2%?
If our lockdown, flattens that curve and people who don’t need to die, don’t, then it’s worth it.
I love it when people make absolute statements that cover every option you can imagine (e.g. 2 deaths prevented) and so can easily be reduced to absurdity :wall:
As a relevant aside, talking to my mum yesterday she said something along the lines of that she wouldn't want younger generations to be fucked for years/decades in order to save a chunk of her generation. So clearly at least some of the high-risk groups can countenance a debate about where a line should be (and might be, if an exit strategy doesn't emerge over the next few months) drawn
Morning everyone - hope you’re all well.
Aside from the PPE/Testing coronashambles that’s unfolding - one article in the Indy caught my eye - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-uk-cases-nhs-symptoms-111-update-death-toll-a9440246.html
Where 1.75 million 111 (online and phone) enquiries were flagged as being potential CV19. Whilst many of these could/were have been other viruses/colds it provides an upper limit on how wised spread it could be..
- Fatality rate of 1% - the 0.2% quoted a couple of posts up might be right but gives some ridiculous numbers. 1% seems broadly in line with the Chinese case fatality rate of 4% and three-quarters of cases not requiring hospitalisation.
- Delay from infection to death of 3 weeks - the range I've seen quoted elsewhere is 2 - 4 weeks, so taken a midpoint.
- Cases doubling every 7 days - I've heard much lower figures than this, but let's assume the lockdown is working and social distancing was working before that.
Based on yesterday's 2,352 deaths, that gets you to 1.9 million people infected and those aren't particularly prudent assumptions.
My hope - if you can call it that - is that 0.2% is way short of the mark and the unobservable/hypothesized counterfactual is it is actually masses more dangerous, mutated, comes around every few months etc and kills in the millions so by having a semi lockdown we are buying a month or two for the scientists to get working on a miracle.
But in the absence of that, having a lockdown while smoking is still a thing is some form of mental gymnastics. I know, it's all about the peak but really is this the only way? Theres a luxury lockdown for at risk groups option too. I know it's where we are and theres no going back I'm just interested in how the numbers stack up. History is full of decisions made that turned out to be a really bad idea but which must have made sense at the time - the fourth crusade attacking it's own city, italy entering ww1, credit default swaps etc... I wonder if this is one of them?
One more time, it’s not just the people dying from C19, it’s the additional deaths from unrelated ailments etc due to and overwhelmed system. It’s about the many thousands who will end up critically ill, again, not just with C19, with other (normally) preventable/treatable afflictions.
My mother isn't expendable
Morning everyone - hope you’re all well.
Aside from the PPE/Testing coronashambles that’s unfolding - one article in the Indy caught my eye - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-uk-cases-nhs-symptoms-111-update-death-toll-a9440246.html
Where 1.75 million 111 (online and phone) enquiries were flagged as being potential CV19. Whilst many of these could/were have been other viruses/colds it provides an upper limit on how wised spread it could be..
Regarding Trump's idea that some oldies will be willing to take one for the team to keep the economy moving, Andrew Cuomo said this:QuoteMy mother isn't expendable
Regarding Trump's idea that some oldies will be willing to take one for the team to keep the economy moving, Andrew Cuomo said this:To him...QuoteMy mother isn't expendable
- Fatality rate of 1% - the 0.2% quoted a couple of posts up might be right but gives some ridiculous numbers. 1% seems broadly in line with the Chinese case fatality rate of 4% and three-quarters of cases not requiring hospitalisation.
- Delay from infection to death of 3 weeks - the range I've seen quoted elsewhere is 2 - 4 weeks, so taken a midpoint.
- Cases doubling every 7 days - I've heard much lower figures than this, but let's assume the lockdown is working and social distancing was working before that.
Based on yesterday's 2,352 deaths, that gets you to 1.9 million people infected and those aren't particularly prudent assumptions.
This isn't in line with the current estimates from here: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/ (https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/)
Does anyone else get bored of OMM not writing what he later says he means, and not reading other posts properly? :shrug:
Maybe the Dutch are right. We wont know in a week or two but probably will know in a year or two.
Does anyone else get bored of OMM not writing what he later says he means, and not reading other posts properly? :shrug:
I think you come across as rather cold.
You only wish to prove yourself correct and everyone else to simply agree with you.
If it makes you happy, yes, you irritate me.
I don't agree with the idea that because we are going to overburden younger generations with footing the bill to save a few oldies the lockdown might not be worth it. Apart from some of the problematic ethics surrounding this idea and me not personally wanting to put my older relatives in the firing line, I think the idea the younger generation will need to pay is unfair. That is just the status quo of our economy and I feel it seriously needs dealing with.
It already is very hard for the young. Rising house prices, tuition fees, cuts to social security services. This country for a long time worked for the older generations and made it hard for the younger. Why can't the older generations help pay for it too? Loads of people are sitting on massively overvalued properties and land. Why don't we have much fairer tax system to help ease the burden? We used to have a fairer tax system that better supported the younger generations.
In summary, I think it is important to cut the number of deaths to as little as possible, but then we really need to make a fair tax system to get the country back on its feet. None of this 'all in this together' nonsense which was essentially an excuse to cut services but not change a thing regarding taxation.
Maybe I'm being naive.
When I said maybe the Dutch are right I didn't mean that they could get away with it but rather maybe they have done the maths and at 0.2% it's not worth a full lockdown.
Does anyone else get bored of OMM not writing what he later says he means, and not reading other posts properly? :shrug:I think you come across as rather cold.
You only wish to prove yourself correct and everyone else to simply agree with you.
If it makes you happy, yes, you irritate me.
Fight. Fight. Fight.
God I'm bored.
I'd urge caution with the figure of 0.2%. It sounds pretty minor. More meaningful would be the total numbers of people we expect will die as a result of different strategies. 0.2% of millions of people plus secondary deaths as a direct result of overwhelmed services is an awful lot of people. And that is without disputing the accuracy of the overall infection fatality rate, which will not be calculable with certainty at this point.
Re: Murphy economics point - eg cost of lockdown greater than cost of not etc.. (grossly simplified - sorry).Is there any faith in the numbers coming out of China, I have no idea on this, but I've believed very little media output from the Chinese government over the decades and I can't see a world wide crisis making them suddenly trustworthy.
It’s interesting that a country who has incarecetated well over a million people in one of its regions - and has a very bad human rights record chose a path of strict lockdown and treat everyone they could. None of this ventilator rationing - they simply got more to save people. My point (if it’s not already clear) is that China chose the path of contain, trace and treat rather than let it run wild... and continues to do so...
Why?
Maybe the Dutch are right. We wont know in a week or two but probably will know in a year or two.
I can't see how the Dutch can be right on deaths. We will see that by two weeks anyhow, as if the numbers follow the same trends, deaths will start to overwhelm their hospitals by then. It's not just their people they are risking by laxer social distancing, given the open borders. In the ten days after their total deaths exceeded a hundred their level was 864 (and 1039 the next day) and our total in comparison was 1019 after ten days...pretty similar in logarithmic terms when estimating the exponential growth rate. They are about 2 to 3 days behind us (growing slightly less fast at the current time) and their population would have seen more about things being bad elsewhere and likely have been more cautious with their own choices of social distancing as a result. Our population is just under 4 times theirs so their per capita deaths are right now almost exactly twice ours. Deaths follow infections roughly by 3 weeks so if our state social distancing worked better we will see in a week and a half to two weeks.
Does anyone else get bored of OMM not writing what he later says he means, and not reading other posts properly? :shrug:I think you come across as rather cold.
You only wish to prove yourself correct and everyone else to simply agree with you.
If it makes you happy, yes, you irritate me.
Fight. Fight. Fight.
God I'm bored.
Is anybody else just so so ready to watch 15 stone of ex-navy meat and gristle go toe-to-toe with a 6-foot-tall tendon who wouldn't tip the scales to 8 stone? Get it on Youtube Live!
We are certainly living through a bit of history ...
I am aware they ar following our track but we put far more constrictive measures in place 10 days ago whilst they stuck to there guns, yet we are still roughly alingned, in fact there figures have flattened a little. Would we not have started to see a difference by now? How long do you think we will need to wait until the accelerate past us, 2 week, 3, 6?
I'd urge caution with the figure of 0.2%. It sounds pretty minor. More meaningful would be the total numbers of people we expect will die as a result of different strategies. 0.2% of millions of people plus secondary deaths as a direct result of overwhelmed services is an awful lot of people. And that is without disputing the accuracy of the overall infection fatality rate, which will not be calculable with certainty at this point.
I get the impression from everything I'm reading* that Covid, if left to play out over say the next 24 months without a vaccine, is as lethal as Spanish Flu.
This is because Covid is highly contagious relative to SF, but with a relatively low infection fatality rate.
Whereas Spanish Flu was less contagious than Covid, but had far higher infection fatality rate.
The potential proportion of deaths per head of population (not per head infected) is similar over the long term.
I suppose back in 1918 because there was no vaccination the virus did what it did, eventually. Whereas today there is a hope of vaccine cutting short the natural progress of Covid.
*search for estimates of the infection rates of Covid versus spanish flu
Other than that, what ever epithets you assigned to me, right back at ya.
😝❤️💃
@richD
Seemed legit early on - though there now seems to be an orchestrated media campaign (started by US right wing media - now followed by ours) that China was holding back from numbers and leaving us in the lurch.
From a science point of view - they’ve been very open and all the important info on the virus, it’s spread and it’s treatment has been freely available.
This makes me think that the west is starting to play to prior perceptions of China - enabling a future blame game and (most importantly) taking the heat off themselves for bungling it’s spread in the West.
The one thing where China is possibly ‘culpable’ is enabling / allowing the animal markets where it’s thought it crossed over to Humans. I’d be surprised though if China was the only country in the world where these happened..
That’s just my view. Suspect there will be lots of conspiracy theories floating around about China and this...
The one thing where China is possibly ‘culpable’ is enabling / allowing the animal markets where it’s thought it crossed over to Humans. I’d be surprised though if China was the only country in the world where these happened..
I also realised most of what I thought I knew about the Flu and it’s lethality was wrong.
It seems from what I read to have killed most through secondary pneumonia(?) and not entirely dissimilar to C19?
The lack of Antibiotics and other modern care being the “real” difference in its lethality?
Any medical bods out there with an opinion?
Still cant believe that fags haven't been banned by the way.
There was a post a while ago about how the wet markets came about, and were accepted in China to avoid mass starvation. Wildlife was being farmed so people could live.
Would we not have started to see a difference by now? How long do you think we will need to wait until the accelerate past us, 2 week, 3, 6?
(What Stu said - far too early to make sensible comparisons)
What is a bit infuriating is the lack of normalising deaths by population in the graphs (e.g. we should be plotting deaths per million).
I’ve seen several comparisons of curves after the first ten deaths or first 100 deaths... that’s just bad data manipulation. Comparing Belgium (or our) curve to the USA after 100 deaths is the same as adding or subtracting a week (or more) from the horizontal axis.
Grr.
(What Stu said - far too early to make sensible comparisons)
What is a bit infuriating is the lack of normalising deaths by population in the graphs (e.g. we should be plotting deaths per million).
I’ve seen several comparisons of curves after the first ten deaths or first 100 deaths... that’s just bad data manipulation. Comparing Belgium (or our) curve to the USA after 100 deaths is the same as adding or subtracting a week (or more) from the horizontal axis.
Grr.
Stu - im not wedded to 0.2% if its 2% or 20% then the lives saved part of the equation looks different. But we dont have the first idea what the cost is really. But it sounds like it's a lot. 20% of GDP is going to need a lot of hospitals to close down to pay for it.
PANAMA IMPLEMENTS GENDER-SPECIFIC SOCIAL DISTANCING In an effort to further enforce nationwide social distancing measures, Panama recently announced that it is implementing gender-specific rules for when people can leave their homes. Women will be allowed to be outside on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays, and men will be allowed on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays. On Sundays, everyone must remain indoors. The restrictions will reportedly last for at least 15 days. Officials implemented the additional gender-specific restrictions after observing high rates of noncompliance with the previous policies. These rules will be enforced based on the sex specified on individuals’ national identification cards. Additionally, the announcement stated that Panama has also been invited to participate in the SOLIDARITY Trial, led by the WHO, which aims to assess COVID-19 treatment options.
This caught my eye in today's CDC update email:QuotePANAMA IMPLEMENTS GENDER-SPECIFIC SOCIAL DISTANCING In an effort to further enforce nationwide social distancing measures, Panama recently announced that it is implementing gender-specific rules for when people can leave their homes. Women will be allowed to be outside on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays, and men will be allowed on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays. On Sundays, everyone must remain indoors. The restrictions will reportedly last for at least 15 days. Officials implemented the additional gender-specific restrictions after observing high rates of noncompliance with the previous policies. These rules will be enforced based on the sex specified on individuals’ national identification cards. Additionally, the announcement stated that Panama has also been invited to participate in the SOLIDARITY Trial, led by the WHO, which aims to assess COVID-19 treatment options.
I know men are at greater risk of severe symptoms than women but how is this measure useful, are they suggesting people are still going out on the pull :-\
This caught my eye in today's CDC update email:QuotePANAMA IMPLEMENTS GENDER-SPECIFIC SOCIAL DISTANCING In an effort to further enforce nationwide social distancing measures, Panama recently announced that it is implementing gender-specific rules for when people can leave their homes. Women will be allowed to be outside on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays, and men will be allowed on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays. On Sundays, everyone must remain indoors. The restrictions will reportedly last for at least 15 days. Officials implemented the additional gender-specific restrictions after observing high rates of noncompliance with the previous policies. These rules will be enforced based on the sex specified on individuals’ national identification cards. Additionally, the announcement stated that Panama has also been invited to participate in the SOLIDARITY Trial, led by the WHO, which aims to assess COVID-19 treatment options.
I know men are at greater risk of severe symptoms than women but how is this measure useful, are they suggesting people are still going out on the pull :-\
(What Stu said - far too early to make sensible comparisons)
What is a bit infuriating is the lack of normalising deaths by population in the graphs (e.g. we should be plotting deaths per million).
I’ve seen several comparisons of curves after the first ten deaths or first 100 deaths... that’s just bad data manipulation. Comparing Belgium (or our) curve to the USA after 100 deaths is the same as adding or subtracting a week (or more) from the horizontal axis.
Grr.
I was uneasy with the discussion tone on here at times, and so want to comment - and then I'll sign off for a while.
I agree that it is important to see as big a picture as possible, and economic impacts are not abstractions (or shouldn't be), but the wreckage of people's livelihoods. Nevertheless the discussion of trade off between health and the economy has seemed a little light at times.
I wonder if there's a perception that the health impacts of CV19 will be largely inflicted on other people; that the climbers here are unlikely to feel their full force. I wouldn't be too sure about that. This virus is novel, and data incomplete.
Only a small number of people die, but that won't console if it happens to both parents in short order.
Few healthy middle aged people die, but a relative or family member might be one of the few.
Or a friend with diabetes, asthma or other condition.
Women seem to be spared more than men, but that's no consolation if the mother of your child, in an overwhelmed hospital, doesn't make it.
Some people won't get their cancer diagnosed or treated till very late. That may be us, our parents, spouses, children.
Some people will get hurt on the road and contract CV19 in hospital in poor condition to fight it off.
Some kids will get ill, and recover, but with permanent lung damage.
As might you, climbing becoming a thing you used to do, before the breathing difficulties.
In short, when pondering the 'tough choices' that come in balancing economic versus personal pain, please consider that the sacrifices being discussed may be made by us.
Warning: mathematical and dusty stats discussion will follow this announcement.
Offwidth, I think your preference for deaths per million is not correct.
Consider two countries with exactly the same disease dynamics (Ro, IFR etc), and an outbreak starting on the same day, with the same number of cases. In this case, the deaths per capita, D/N, will follow exactly the same track, but the raw fatality numbers, D, will not.
I think this is why you are arguing for per-capita plots.
I think I would be one of the people whose comments make you uncomfortable. Reading your post I find it hard to disagree with anything you have written to be honest. I think anyone looking at the issues you have raised would agree that all of them are unpleasant and involve suffering and heartbreak. I certainly don’t wish any of those things on anyone and would be deeply upset if they hit me personally. To give you some information my mother is in care home, prone to chest infections and I would guess highly likely to die from any viral infection which I think she will eventually contract despite the lockdown. My own personal feelings on that don’t stop me considering whether overall what we are doing is for the best
I would also say that the choices we are making now are not just saving lives they are costing lives and causing harm. Whether or not we save more and cause less harm from what we are doing seems like a valid discussion topic. I also appreciate that it is emotive which is why I have included a personal detail so that you can see that I am not heartless or lacking empathy but am just curious as to whether or not what we are doing is the “least worst “ alternative.
Dave
In-country epidemics are actually lots of little exponential outbreaks aggregated ... For initial outbreaks its not unreasonable to assume there are some per capita effects on the overall numbers
Warning: mathematical and dusty stats discussion will follow this announcement.
Offwidth, I think your preference for deaths per million is not correct.
Consider two countries with exactly the same disease dynamics (Ro, IFR etc), and an outbreak starting on the same day, with the same number of cases. In this case, the deaths per capita, D/N, will follow exactly the same track, but the raw fatality numbers, D, will not.
I think this is why you are arguing for per-capita plots.
I'm not actually arguing for per capita plots (see below) but I do want the current overall per capita number to help counter what I see as silly arguments about the NL and Sweden handling things better (we don't know either way yet, but so far from the data we are pretty similar, with if anything in my view the UK looking slightly the best). Even though we don't know yet, most of the epidemiology would favour them having it wrong.
In-country epidemics are actually lots of little exponential outbreaks aggregated. I think Italy and possibly Spain suffered in addition from the exodus of people from the main infected areas avoiding lock-down, generating lots of new epidemic areas. For initial outbreaks its not unreasonable to assume there are some per capita effects on the overall numbers, assuming reasonably similar geographical spreads of initial infectors (I'm guessing mostly returning skiers from N Italy for us and NL). Yet, in the end, I agree actual deaths will be a better indicator of comparative control measures. Either way, the data will likely show the success of comparative measures from about 2 weeks time, starting most strongly with daily cases and initial indications in daily deaths. I think before then, NL and SW will have changed their plans.
In-country epidemics are actually lots of little exponential outbreaks aggregated ... For initial outbreaks its not unreasonable to assume there are some per capita effects on the overall numbers
This is valid point, but you've drawn the wrong conclusion from it. Initially, each individual outbreak is small compared to it's host population, so the fact that they are fragmented doesn't matter. It's later on that population effects matter.
The general point that the "population" that affects the spread isn't the whole country's population is a good one though. And that you need to be careful about interpreting tail-offs in death rates because of this.
Per-capita plots aren't really useful at all until the very end stages of an outbreak. Look at the bottom plot in my two examples; the two UK models appear in very different positions throughout, despite all the properties of disease transmission being identical. The point at which per-capita comparisons are useful are once all this is over.
"silly arguments" nice way to wind people. I am guessing this is pointed at me as i am the one who keeps mentioning the Netherlands. I only do so as i am talking to Holland every day and on a practical level not just looking at some fucking charts and what they might say in two weeks time.
I dont remember saying they are handling the situation better just pointing out they are doing things differently and how that difference is effecting the economy.
I don't see what your point is there Offwidth? It seems to be a jumble of mixed points.
Edit: Is your point that *if* the initial infection is the same size per capita, and the outbreaks start at the same time, the disease should follow a similar track? If so, yes, but they'll follow the same track on both graphs at this stage. There's no justification for scaling per capita during an outbreak.
If you don't want to take my word and evidence for it, here's some support from the stats team at the FT:
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244380095164420101?s=21
Quote John burn-Murdoch:
"Plenty of things indirectly related to population: can make a difference. Population density can increase the rate of spread. Countries with major travel hubs may end up with multiple outbreaks. But population alone is a bad thing to adjust for if wanting to assess how bad an outbreak is"
As I said, I don't want per capita death graphs. I do want the per capita data as a balance to total mortality graphs.
I'm saying if the main initial infections were geographically distributed, and approximately per capita, the initial growth will have had some strongly per capita factors.
The only accurate comparable data is deaths, given testing variability.
Assuming similar per capita infections mainly from N Italy, if we had say 100 infected returnees and NL had 25, all randomly distributed in each country, the chances are intial growth would significantly match that ratio.
Heres an article and some charts from the Dutch media for you mathematicians to look at.
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/04/coronavirus-statistics-show-lockdowns-are-slowing-rate-of-infection/
Last paragraph is the line people keep telling me.
Scientists have warned repeatedly that strict lockdowns make it harder to build up immunity and create the risk of a new spike in cases when people are let out again.
Sorry, flippant and too brief and Alex will moan that I didn’t explain what I meant etc etc.
Netherlands and Sweden have less ICU beds per capita than the UK.
Offwidth - do you really disagree with Stu, or do you just mean that it's a pain explaining to people on FB
Friends in Braunton (that surf shop filled village on the way to N. Devon beaches Saunton/Croyde) report that new next door neighbours have arrived from London today... Apparently they are here ‘self isolating’, they went for a surf this afternoon (which involves a 5 mile drive).. Convoys of campers on the way again.. Easter holidays is apparently still on for some people...
Friends in Braunton (that surf shop filled village on the way to N. Devon beaches Saunton/Croyde) report that new next door neighbours have arrived from London today... Apparently they are here ‘self isolating’, they went for a surf this afternoon (which involves a 5 mile drive).. Convoys of campers on the way again.. Easter holidays is apparently still on for some people...
Thanks Pete. Nice to have some backup.
Just have to wait and see. I imagine we’re not the only ones keeping a close eye on the situation.
Friends in Braunton (that surf shop filled village on the way to N. Devon beaches Saunton/Croyde) report that new next door neighbours have arrived from London today... Apparently they are here ‘self isolating’, they went for a surf this afternoon (which involves a 5 mile drive).. Convoys of campers on the way again.. Easter holidays is apparently still on for some people...
Despair, it's the same in France, the police and army are roadblocking the main routes, but still people think they can take their holidays.
Final point - joggers - stop acting like cunts. We’re supposed to be social distancing not near barging people out of the way who are out for a gentle walk!! I don’t want your sweaty mass dripping near me in these times. Bah. I swear people give me a wider berth when I’m out walking either the toddler. Maybe they think he’s got superspreader written all over him 😃. I think I should stop now.
Not enough policia to do a great deal about, plenty of back roads to avoid road blocks, whilst someone is stopped others drive on through. The town centre was heaving today, a lot of people just not getting it.. What can you do.?.Friends in Braunton (that surf shop filled village on the way to N. Devon beaches Saunton/Croyde) report that new next door neighbours have arrived from London today... Apparently they are here ‘self isolating’, they went for a surf this afternoon (which involves a 5 mile drive).. Convoys of campers on the way again.. Easter holidays is apparently still on for some people...
Despair, it's the same in France, the police and army are roadblocking the main routes, but still people think they can take their holidays.
Just watched the news here in France. Seems like the Paris to Normandy weekend exodus has started. Putains de débile :badidea:
Not enough policia to do a great deal about, plenty of back roads to avoid road blocks, whilst someone is stopped others drive on through. The town centre was heaving today, a lot of people just not getting it.. What can you do.?.Friends in Braunton (that surf shop filled village on the way to N. Devon beaches Saunton/Croyde) report that new next door neighbours have arrived from London today... Apparently they are here ‘self isolating’, they went for a surf this afternoon (which involves a 5 mile drive).. Convoys of campers on the way again.. Easter holidays is apparently still on for some people...
Despair, it's the same in France, the police and army are roadblocking the main routes, but still people think they can take their holidays.
Just watched the news here in France. Seems like the Paris to Normandy weekend exodus has started. Putains de débile :badidea:
Since some of you seem to be preoccupied with the situation in the Netherlands, here’s some inside details from the country thats acting almost as crazy as Sweden...
...
I thought you had been out for walks will?
Since some of you seem to be preoccupied with the situation in the Netherlands, here’s some inside details from the country thats acting almost as crazy as Sweden...
...
So only a little more lax than here but with calmer reporting?
My wife has been out walking the kids each day this week and has reported significantly more traffic about. It seems people are getting bored of the lockdown. Or at least have a completely different idea of what the word "essential" means. Some of my work colleagues have been into work to collect a monitor to make it more easy to work at home. Journeys of 10 miles +, sometimes on the M62 there. Hardly essential is it?
We can't say that we're saints on here though, can we? The "how to build a woodie" thread has seen plenty of people out buying wood for instance... :whistle: :jab: :ang: (Sorry if that's you. I have no idea whether the local builder's merchants is right next to the supermarket and you were there anyway).
Not me, though. I haven't left home for a week other than to go to Aldi for an hour - which was the scariest time of the whole situation so far. I kept feeling the urge to say "blessed be the fruit" to everyone.
I think our friends new neighbours may get some ‘dirty post’ :shit:...
Seriously though.. I am unlikely to come across grockles because we’re not leaving home at all, save to go for walks straight from home.. Viruses can’t move by themselves, it’s not hard to grasp, surely. So either some people really aren’t so sharp or they’re just being selfish cvnts. Given that our anecdotal sample of ‘self isolating’ Londoners went ‘surfing’ this afternoon in the shittest conditions imaginable, I’m suggesting it’s the latter.
Since some of you seem to be preoccupied with the situation in the Netherlands, here’s some inside details from the country thats acting almost as crazy as Sweden...
The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) is basically in charge and tells the government what to do. It’s not politicians or the media dictating rules and regulations, it’s epidemiologists.
Contrarily to what some might think what is in place is a pretty effective yet not restrictive voluntary lockdown. Basically all social contact has come to a standstill. Gatherings of more than 3 people are not allowed. Walking, surfing, cycling, running, walking the dog is allowed. Just keep your distance. No need to get upset over people doing stuff outside where it is not possible to infect others! Big parking lots at very popular outdoor venues have closed or will close during the weekend. Schools have been closed for 3 weeks now, bit kids are still allowed to play together outside. Work and travel is still not restricted, but people are asked to stay home, which has a huge effect.
The funny thing is, in normal live (the live not lived on social media and internet fora) hardly anybody is panicking, even newspapers and television are keeping it sane. And yes, deaths and IC admissions are still on the rise, but the growth is slowing down, and will probably stabilize
in a few days. RIVM has changed it’s approach since the start of the outbreak, but that's hardly surprising as they will have to act to a known unknown, but do not want to disrupt normal live excessively. It seems they/the government are doing an OK job (disclaimer: I’ve worked @RIVM in the past, but on a different subject).
Today, we saw official data on weekly mortality in 2020 which was compared to weekly mortality in the previous years. It shows the real mortality caused by COVID-19 to be a lot bigger than hospital data (duh...). It also shows COVID-19 mortality to be bigger than mortality caused by the last serious outbreak of the flu. Next weeks data will be even higher: https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland (https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland)
Concerning IC capacity: today’s 1324 IC beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients. Up by 51. IC Capacity has gone up to 2100 beds (from 1200), and will rise to 2400 in a couple of days. No panic yet.
Scientists have warned repeatedly that strict lockdowns make it harder to build up immunity and create the risk of a new spike in cases when people are let out again.
Sweden on the other hand... Perhaps their epidemiologists think the low population density will keep the virus under control there? It might well do.
I’m pretty sure I’ve got it (mildly.). Colleague tested positive and 3/4 of people in my house unwell. The 7 year old is happily unaffected. Symptoms have been dry cough, chest pains and breathless. No fever, although I normally run at 35.6 and got up to 37. The illness overlapped with having shingles so it was difficult to be specific about tiredness, headaches etc.
I might not change my behaviour in regards to social distancing, but I’ll certainly feel more confident at work - patient facing NHS. In a lot of ways it’s a massive relief to be pretty certain I’ve had it.
It will, but that’s true everywhere since there’s no vaccine, and we suspect no natural immunity. All the efforts to date are about slowing the rate of infection, to stop health services being overwhelmed and buy more time for a vaccine.
By contrast, our numbers only really dropped when Boris closed the pubs. Perhaps the Dutch are just better at following advice than us, without being forced to?
By contrast, our numbers only really dropped when Boris closed the pubs. Perhaps the Dutch are just better at following advice than us, without being forced to?
Or, perhaps the Dutch don't have social lives that revolve around binge drinking?
By contrast, our numbers only really dropped when Boris closed the pubs. Perhaps the Dutch are just better at following advice than us, without being forced to?
Or, perhaps the Dutch don't have social lives that revolve around binge drinking?
Oh they do. They like a drink as much as the brits.By contrast, our numbers only really dropped when Boris closed the pubs. Perhaps the Dutch are just better at following advice than us, without being forced to?
Or, perhaps the Dutch don't have social lives that revolve around binge drinking?
By contrast, our numbers only really dropped when Boris closed the pubs. Perhaps the Dutch are just better at following advice than us, without being forced to?
Or, perhaps the Dutch don't have social lives that revolve around binge drinking?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ctz_vBmr_FU
More grim news on the deaths totals today...
Looks like we’re well in the same zone as Spain and Italy...
3rd article from Tomas Pueyo, about developments in US:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-out-of-many-one-36b886af37e9
The article is quite broad ranging in order to come to a final conclusion.
For those interested in the debate between social distancing and economic impact, I recommend reading it as it considers the issue at some length.
Contrarily to what some might think what is in place is a pretty effective yet not restrictive voluntary lockdown. Basically all social contact has come to a standstill. Gatherings of more than 3 people are not allowed. Walking, surfing, cycling, running, walking the dog is allowed. Just keep your distance. No need to get upset over people doing stuff outside where it is not possible to infect others! Big parking lots at very popular outdoor venues have closed or will close during the weekend. Schools have been closed for 3 weeks now, bit kids are still allowed to play together outside. Work and travel is still not restricted, but people are asked to stay home, which has a huge effect.
Have I missed something? When the Netherlands' lockdown was described it sounded very similar to ours.
Have I missed something? When the Netherlands' lockdown was described it sounded very similar to ours.
With the differences in reporting Im wary of putting too much stock in these numbers, but the current numbers from https://www.google.com/covid19-map/ are
country, population, cases, deaths
UK, 66 million, 47800, 4932
NL, 17 million, 17851, 1766
So UK is at 724 cases / million and 74.7 deaths / million. NL is 1022 cases / million and 103 deaths / million. I think it's a push to say the Netherlands is doing particularly well, though of course the proof will be in where we are in 12 months time and you can make a better guess of weighing up the # deaths vs. the economic impact.
Fuck you Will I very much get it. Who the fuck do you think you are mr I’m right.
Is not the idea in conversation that alternative points are made.
That doesn’t mean I think we should just let a load of people die as was insinuated.
Thought this several days old news report was important (although rather buried on the Guardian scottish pages). It claims the first UK death was Feb 28th. Has anyone here seen anything confirming this?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/coronavirus-took-hold-in-uk-earlier-than-thought-data-reveals
I keep going back to Holland as it’s interesting as based on fact not projections, there model is at the very least doing as well as ours and I feel this should be looked at before we start implementing more rules about what we can and cannot do.
I keep going back to Holland as it’s interesting as based on fact not projections, there model is at the very least doing as well as ours and I feel this should be looked at before we start implementing more rules about what we can and cannot do.
Today's graph shows how Black [deaths/day] and Red [hospital admissions/day] have evolved. Not just IC-admissions, but all admissions related to COVID-19. It seems we've had our peak 6 days ago. Graphs like these may help to explain why people in the NL still aren't overly worried.
Keep in mind that the way the disease took off in each country before getting noticed and mitigated will have a big impact on (the size per capita and shape of) graphs like these. It's not just how and how fast a country responded to COVID-19 with measures that will determine the outcome of the decease. In short: data between countries cannot be compared without looking into the finer details.
I hope the measures in the UK will show effect soon.
(https://nos.nl/data/image/2020/04/06/641667/1920x1080a.jpg)
Interesting watching Holland following what appears to be something akin to the UK's previous policy (mitigate) without seeing the large increase in cases.. so far.. Plenty of time for it to change still.
Could their laxer policy be down to being able to more efficiently test and quarantine?
Their testing is not far off double the UK's, per million people:
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/mOahg8G_GxKtHKJezl8zsKrvEpVKNeW48hy5bT5ODmCc_1UWk3Uf2o2R8FwmWb4uLdh4tgaPwU0ztL5YiR_6CZytoBob1M9wZULWlvGIPfq747jvXGDdxUwBOt3nX88KGLTopEPQXyJlQcaZYg3Jj4e8oZhGAKw5vlXTrtXjf1_oiyM_2jlWoPIxJCIhjMcnjwC1ONog91--MEHPOE7m8H8xjSIGRkV44o9BW3kZ1XmynMxRkpZ_qU35PhGoWy4yCZU9pIriRZ7_UJPGYmnG5Gh9yb8vYMWiMVZ2jycTAXD8LU_AKaZKjrcFXeZpiCQpoCkmTeIX4tzYQ5vvAcJgEjuPxbFeaMz-SwjfeXwwpkQmx5CRiznBwckshXJNIhoZeL97jMzuba-p-XO-K2UiBrGtzR2m-NRox6pZeVFaaxnSBlOgxfiooP7j8n7tF1s1PFsLFxuAwFTEUis4Fw-veBtiGdSR8A7yUQL845v7lcJzuo9-P8eAVitygotQjz6v4bMQRdRyBJog9VBpplncIe38_pAusy1-RPpzDSNUznnttCS3VJsg_Ojn14RpgRKmDkLCMgLd-HfL0X9bruOdn8_rZ229y2nbMCw91hOkosr5jyfqm4S4kALq1Vr7cp_pLNNinwHTY5s5kN4Ox4ZwwKVcKvEFZrszQ9IaSxIw-KeMwkLLzGXRhbZflHY=w1252-h883-no)
Is a hospital really called a Ziekenhuis? "Sick house".
Could their laxer policy be down to being able to more efficiently test and quarantine?
Hospital is ziekenhuis indeed. Like the German ‘Krankenhaus’. Ill/feeling sick=ziek(Dutch)=krank(German). ‘Hospitaal’ has the same meaning as ziekenhuis, but is hardly used nowadays.
An good interview with Neil Ferguson of Imperial in today’s FT (article is free if you sign in)
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/04/1586015208000/Imperial-s-Neil-Ferguson---We-don-t-have-a-clear-exit-strategy-/ (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/04/1586015208000/Imperial-s-Neil-Ferguson---We-don-t-have-a-clear-exit-strategy-/)
Wasn’t sure whether to put this in the politics thread or this one. It’s about the modelling and potential (or lack of) exit strategies.
Hospital is ziekenhuis indeed. Like the German ‘Krankenhaus’. Ill/feeling sick=ziek(Dutch)=krank(German). ‘Hospitaal’ has the same meaning as ziekenhuis, but is hardly used nowadays.
Interesting, another demonstration that Afrikaans is an old undeveloped form of Dutch. Hospitaal is still the only term for one there. Afrikaans they use siek too, not ziek.
An good interview with Neil Ferguson of Imperial in today’s FT (article is free if you sign in)
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/04/1586015208000/Imperial-s-Neil-Ferguson---We-don-t-have-a-clear-exit-strategy-/ (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/04/1586015208000/Imperial-s-Neil-Ferguson---We-don-t-have-a-clear-exit-strategy-/)
Wasn’t sure whether to put this in the politics thread or this one. It’s about the modelling and potential (or lack of) exit strategies.
My fear is the likes of climbing walls being open for a long time nor general access to the crags as they will just not be deemed essential nor do they add a lot to the economy in the scheme of things.
My fear is the likes of climbing walls being open for a long time nor general access to the crags as they will just not be deemed essential nor do they add a lot to the economy in the scheme of things.
I'm getting the same fear. How many sleeping pills to knock me out until Sept 2021?
You’ll be weak as shit though.
I'd like to think that allowing people out into the hills / coutryside for walking / climbing is relatively low risk vs perceived mental and physical benefits, compared to not allowing mass participation events,mass spectator events and "confined" exercise environments like climbing walls, pools, gyms, sports centres etc.
Thought chasing them was more your style.
My fear is the likes of climbing walls being open for a long time nor general access to the crags as they will just not be deemed essential nor do they add a lot to the economy in the scheme of things.
I'm getting the same fear. How many sleeping pills to knock me out until Sept 2021?
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak.
...
The analysts also claim discussions over “herd immunity” led to a delay in the UK introducing physical distancing measures, which were brought in from 23 March in England when the coronavirus death toll stood at 54. Portugal, by comparison, had just one confirmed death when distancing measures were imposed.
...
Looking at the measures taken by the UK to curb the spread of the disease, the institute says the peak is expected in 10 days’ time, on 17 April. At that point the country will need more than 102,000 hospital beds, the IHME says. There are nearly 18,000 available, meaning a shortfall of 85,000.
...
The IHME said its model was designed to be updated from day to day as the pandemic goes on. For a country such as the UK, which is quite early on in its outbreak, the uncertainty was higher and the headline numbers might change over the next few days as more data is collected.
The high predicted numbers of UK deaths were driven by three factors, the IHME said: what had happened in other countries that are ahead in their epidemics, such as Italy and Spain, what had happened so far in the UK, and when physical distancing measures were put in place.
In the early stages of the UK outbreak, deaths climbed steeply, which the IHME says is a major driver of predicted deaths. The flirtation in government with the idea of “herd immunity” as a way out of the epidemic meant there was a delay in implementing physical distancing until 23 March, when there were already 54 deaths a day.
Ferguson said he did not think the predictions could be relied on. “This model does not match the current UK situation,” he said, adding that the numbers used by the IHME were at least twice as high as they should be for current bed usage and deaths in the NHS. “Basically, their healthcare demand model is wrong, at least for the UK,” he said.
Sheffield were doing more testing before most others.
Also, the extent of staff testing varies between hospitals.
Wouldn’t NHS worker cases/deaths lag a couple of weeks behind, from when they first started coming into hospitals and exposing frontline NHS workers?
Interesting / alarming article on the massive over representation of BAME in the death stats
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/bame-groups-hit-harder-covid-19-than-white-people-uk
I think that’s dangerous speculation (genetics) that can fuel all sorts of sinister agendas. The article is pretty clear about potential root cause and it’s all socio economic.
Genetics is highly probable to have a hand in susceptibility, regardless of it’s racial origin or otherwise. It would be ridiculous to ignore it’s potential role or make the discussion of it taboo.
Wouldn’t NHS worker cases/deaths lag a couple of weeks behind, from when they first started coming into hospitals and exposing frontline NHS workers?
Interesting / alarming article on the massive over representation of BAME in the death stats
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/bame-groups-hit-harder-covid-19-than-white-people-uk
Total Noob musing, but either the infections have been going on longer than first thought and the NHS staff succumbing were early infections and pre any PPE, or it’s a viral load thing?
Thanks Duma. They seem to expect the initial delayed distancing to have a big impact on exponential growth.Further to this, the current update has peak daily deaths down to ~1700 and total down to 37000
From the Guardian:QuoteThe Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak.
...
The analysts also claim discussions over “herd immunity” led to a delay in the UK introducing physical distancing measures, which were brought in from 23 March in England when the coronavirus death toll stood at 54. Portugal, by comparison, had just one confirmed death when distancing measures were imposed.
...
Looking at the measures taken by the UK to curb the spread of the disease, the institute says the peak is expected in 10 days’ time, on 17 April. At that point the country will need more than 102,000 hospital beds, the IHME says. There are nearly 18,000 available, meaning a shortfall of 85,000.
...
The IHME said its model was designed to be updated from day to day as the pandemic goes on. For a country such as the UK, which is quite early on in its outbreak, the uncertainty was higher and the headline numbers might change over the next few days as more data is collected.
The high predicted numbers of UK deaths were driven by three factors, the IHME said: what had happened in other countries that are ahead in their epidemics, such as Italy and Spain, what had happened so far in the UK, and when physical distancing measures were put in place.
In the early stages of the UK outbreak, deaths climbed steeply, which the IHME says is a major driver of predicted deaths. The flirtation in government with the idea of “herd immunity” as a way out of the epidemic meant there was a delay in implementing physical distancing until 23 March, when there were already 54 deaths a day.
Important to say Ferguson and Imperial strongly dispute the figures.Quote
Ferguson said he did not think the predictions could be relied on. “This model does not match the current UK situation,” he said, adding that the numbers used by the IHME were at least twice as high as they should be for current bed usage and deaths in the NHS. “Basically, their healthcare demand model is wrong, at least for the UK,” he said.
Re:curve flattening.
Both Italy and Spain have levelled off after c.10k deaths. We’ll pass that total today or tomorrow - and I really hope it signals the crest of the hill :(
It’s going to be a mess until long after and the numbers have all been corrected / normalised...
Whilst Offwidth is right that this is going to land a heavy blow on UK higher education, there's going to be a lot of very interesting research for some people to do.
For those who pay to read the Sunday Times, there's a really good article by Matthew Syed today, my app wont bring the link up I'm afraid but it's in the main comment section.
On a different subject the likely impact on Universities is beginning to surface.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/apr/11/universities-brace-for-huge-losses-as-foreign-students-drop-out
https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2020/04/12/another-perfect-storm-the-likely-financial-impact-of-covid-19-on-the-higher-education-sector-by-andrew-connors-the-head-of-higher-education-at-lloyds-bank/
https://wonkhe.com/blogs/how-can-universities-climb-out-of-the-coming-financial-abyss/
Overall UK/EU teaching makes a loss (despite current fees), and the vast majority of research is run at a loss. The system only works because of the profit on overseas student fees and other income. Add on to that the growing numbers of institutions refunding term 3 student accommodation charges.
With brexit influences on EU students, staff and research funding, the huge increase in pension deficit (that is likely following this crash), this really is a perfect storm.
As ever when Universities run into trouble, the impact is felt the hardest by the armies of casualised staff involved in teaching and on short term research contracts.
Looks pretty in line to me Alex?
Graph shows ~ 6000 excess deaths in weeks 12+13, which I guess takes us to the 5th or 7th
Here (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/) (hospital deaths I think) shows between 5000 & 6000 deaths for that date range. I guess it's to the 5th and the difference is outside hospital?
I've seen very similar charts for New York and places in Italy - two to four times the normal seasonally adjusted death rate, with half or less of the excess deaths officially attributed to covid-19The UK isn't 2-4 times over, its 60%. Sorry, I don't mean to nitpick but that's a huge difference.
Yeah, there's no way is there....shame, I bet Hancock is having some nice baseball caps with "100,000" emblazoned on the front. What a waste.
This is good. https://critinq.wordpress.com/2020/04/10/ground-zero-empiricism/ (https://critinq.wordpress.com/2020/04/10/ground-zero-empiricism/)
MAWA Man enforces safe-distancing (Must Always Walk Alone) as he repels people and objects far apart. To his friends, he is Manzoorakkaman (Man Man for short), a sports super agent in his late 30s.
Backstory:
Man Man is a fanatical Manchester United fan who grew up in the 80s when Liverpool kept winning titles and he was constantly taunted by his two Liverpool fan brothers. This made him despise everything Liverpool including their motto You’ll Never Walk Alone (YNWA).
His hatred for Liverpool so far exceeds his love for Man Utd that it manifested as a telekinesis power in MAWA Man to push objects and people through his eyes.
Abilities:
Repelling power to push objects and people back, aided by a digital distance meter through his eyes.
Uses a special helmet he invented to control the magnitude of force and calculate other tech stuff.
Weakness:
Cannot stop Man Utd fans from gathering as he will be compelled to join them.
Fair points, although there are 20,000+ deaths, 16+ is just hospitals. However, the comparator isn't deaths in tens of thousands, it's hundreds of thousands without lockdown. That is the figure the gov is, quite rightly, afraid of.
I'm still struggling to understand the pay off between the damage lock down will cause short, medium and especially long term to the health of the nation and the relatively small number of deaths. There's what around 66 million people in the UK (ish) and so far there have been 16k deaths, so around 0.02% of the population. Yet there's 11 million newly unemployed or furloughed employees and huge infringement on freedoms and way of life, with no date for an exit and talk of "new normal". I still think the measures against corona are much more frightening than the virus.
I really can't see how many businesses will survive this as we continue with extended lockdown and continued social distancing, and everyone who seems to see this as a new more caring reset will probably be in for a rude awakening if the measures are lifted and public services including the NHS are cut hugely due to lack of tax revenue.
I;m not suggested that economic failure is more important than lives, but economic failure surely leads to loss of lives, and although I've not seen accurate figures there must be additional lives being lost at the moment through NHS focus on corona with procedures such as transplants etc being postponed. I think when this finally finishes instead of the enivetable public enquiry concentrating on PPE levels in hospitals and care homes (which are mainly privately run nowadays) it wold be better to compare the longer term effects of this lockdown on society and it's health compared to Sweden where there has been minimal lockdown but looks like a higher death rate.
Mini rant over. Rich
We are already on track to beat the 20k mark, in a period of two months (possibly less).
Now this is curious: a science grad who wants to test, but whose team don’t receive enough swabs to stay busy.That's a fascinating insight. That underused Milton Keynes testing lab is supposed to be one of three giant national swab testing labs (the others being in Nether Alderly and Glasgow) supplementing the patient testing currently being done at NHS labs. I applied to join the Nether Alderly lab back in March but it is yet to open AFAIK. I get weekly emails thanking me for my patience.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/16/swab-tester-uk-germany-south-korea
Is that because HM gov can’t organise enough tests despite having spare testing capacity? Or is it that making use of that capacity is not a priority?
...the real risk of virus transmission is going on in a parallel world out there that I think the majority just don't see...There's a split in this country (and prob everywhere) between office/home workers and workers who can't work from an office/home...This virus is being spread by people working, commuting to work...
Did a site visit today to a large industrial site to view some new work. I observed no social distancing in evidence whatsoever among the many maintenance and construction workers I saw (many in their 40s and 50s) going about their work. There's an argument that the site I visited is vital national infrastructure. But I know this to be about 60% bollocks - some of the work is, most of it isn't. This is being replicated all over the country. The NHS will be mopping up the fallout from people like this. Not you sitting at home.
Did a site visit today to a large industrial site to view some new work. I observed no social distancing in evidence whatsoever among the many maintenance and construction workers I saw (many in their 40s and 50s) going about their work. There's an argument that the site I visited is vital national infrastructure. But I know this to be about 60% bollocks - some of the work is, most of it isn't. This is being replicated all over the country. The NHS will be mopping up the fallout from people like this. Not you sitting at home.
You're going to point it out to them, right? I think there's now a HSE hotline for concerned workers.
Did a site visit today to a large industrial site to view some new work. I observed no social distancing in evidence whatsoever among the many maintenance and construction workers I saw (many in their 40s and 50s) going about their work. There's an argument that the site I visited is vital national infrastructure. But I know this to be about 60% bollocks - some of the work is, most of it isn't. This is being replicated all over the country. The NHS will be mopping up the fallout from people like this. Not you sitting at home.
You're going to point it out to them, right? I think there's now a HSE hotline for concerned workers.
https://www.hse.gov.uk/news/riddor-reporting-coronavirus.htm
Looks like you’d only end up with a reportable incident if someone was confirmed as having Covid.
The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) is required by law to ensure the information captured or created as part of its public function is available for scrutiny by anyone.
HSE acknowledges the important role information plays in demonstrating transparency and accountability of government, as well as the wider societal and economic benefits it provides.
HSE only disclose information where it is in the public interest, and where it is fair and lawful to do so. All requests for information are considered on a case by case basis under one of the following
Will send an FOI request - anyone on here got any hints or tips on how to phrase this?
Thanks Paul. Do you know what the "usual timescales" are? Obvs this is a very simple request i.e. please give two numbers from your database - no. of reportable cases of exposure & no. reportable fatalities of NHS staff / healthcare workers.
Thanks Paul. Do you know what the "usual timescales" are? Obvs this is a very simple request i.e. please give two numbers from your database - no. of reportable cases of exposure & no. reportable fatalities of NHS staff / healthcare workers.
I prodded that journalist and he's bit. I'll let you know how it develops.
They've calculated the number for London transport. 1 death in every 1,100 workers. Magnitudes higher than the average of 1 in 19,000.Pete, this last bit of reasoning is both technically correct and disingenuous.
Look up 'more or less' from today for example. The average death rate from covid in UK population for people of working age is currently around 1 in 19,000.
The number of NHS staff recorded as dying from covid roughly correlates with the number of deaths expected in the wider population: 1 in 19,000. There are assumptions involved and you can fiddle around with them, and the proportions are likely to increase. But it isn't drastically different from the general population.
Bet you wont get those stats easily OMM, so Pete's stats are a very good proxy in the face of limited data. (Also, you might well expect non-COVID but COVID-related deaths to map broadly equally by work demographic, so unless you have a good reason to believe otherwise the proxy is likely to work well)
They've calculated the number for London transport. 1 death in every 1,100 workers. Magnitudes higher than the average of 1 in 19,000.Pete, this last bit of reasoning is both technically correct and disingenuous.
Singling out the CV19 deaths and stating that proportion coincides with expected death rates of the general population is a false indicator.
The true indicator of CV19’s seriousness is it’s influence on number of deaths from all causes and how it deviates from the norm.
This applies regardless of the section of, or entirety of, the population it applies to.
Otherwise, in the case of the NHS deaths (or the others) you have singled out, you appear to suggest that group have stopped dying from anything else.
It will be interesting, Pete, to see if the constitution industry’s toll is significantly at odds with the national average, and I imagine some law firms are wondering the same thing...
Matt, in answer to your last post - I agree. But how many NHS staff, of those reported of having died of covid, worked on covid wards or in ICU etc. (I'm not up with the various areas in a hospital). Do we know? If we don't - and I'm not saying we do or don't btw - then we shouldn't treat 'all NHS' as any different to 'all construction'.
And Alex/Ru -- the stats I re-posted from 'more or less' are for working-age population only, not whole population.
Guardian flagging up research saying nicotine may inhibit Cv progress in patients.
The last report I saw was 22 had died and they were reported as all being drivers.
As of today that number of deaths from covid-19 among TfL workers increased to 29. Out of a total workforce of 26,000 (2018/19).
https://tfl.gov.uk/campaign/message-from-transport-commissioner-mike-brown-mvo?intcmp=62693 (https://tfl.gov.uk/campaign/message-from-transport-commissioner-mike-brown-mvo?intcmp=62693)
This is a red flag surely.
More numbers and indications that the UK is not alone in under reporting it’s daily toll.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/covid19datatrackingcovid19excessdeathsacrosscountriesgraphicdetail (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/covid19datatrackingcovid19excessdeathsacrosscountriesgraphicdetail)
I don't know what they currently have, but mandatory contactless payment
, fully enclosed driver's compartment, maybe open driver's window (?), driver's masks, and planned regime of proper bus / train cleaning daily would perhaps be the least to be expected. Anyone in London offer info on the situation?
Or shut the transport down.
Thanks for the update Sean, always good to hear tales from the big city. Up here as long as you have a carrot for the horse and a tab for the driver you're all good.
My own n=1 is that the lockdown is now largely defunct.
Also, can anyone help on this?...
There is a morass of Covid 19 data out there. However one thing I cannot find anywhere is a historical record of *how many covid 19 tests per day* have been done in the UK...
The reason is I would like to keep tabs on how the "ramping up" to 100K is going.
My own n=1 is that the lockdown is now largely defunct.
That was my experience yesterday. Arterial roads were back to normal traffic levels (god knows where they’re getting the vehicle usage data from as it doesn’t bear any relation to my observations over the last few weeks - including the A1(M) which I can see from my evening walk). Remote pull ins packed, picnickers out in full force, groups blatantly not from the same household etc etc. Basically no different from a regular sunny weekend day.
I do wonder if we’ll see some stronger enforcement / interpretation before any relaxation. After all now is the critical time.
Neither of which are non essential I’d wager.
There’s a good graphic showing this on the Guardian live blog now. If I was more competent I’d embed the image, but the answer is that the “ramping up” isn’t going well.
Our radio wakes us up in the morning, and this was on the Radio 1 headlines.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-52406342
Now I know radio 1 is hardly high-level thinking, but why would you put this on the headlines? Ok, it looks bad, but it only looks bad because we're involved in this pointless "some people are having a shit time so everyone has to have a shit time" bollocks.
Our radio wakes us up in the morning, and this was on the Radio 1 headlines.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-52406342
Now I know radio 1 is hardly high-level thinking, but why would you put this on the headlines? Ok, it looks bad, but it only looks bad because we're involved in this pointless "some people are having a shit time so everyone has to have a shit time" bollocks.
The captain of HMS Trenchant, a nuclear-powered attack submarine based at Devonport in Plymouth, has been sent home on leave.
Last week, with the mutual agreement of both our employees and management team, we decided to resume operations within our distribution center. This is done with our full commitment to protect the health and safety of our employees. In the following weeks our production will gradually resume to 100% operational.
Our radio wakes us up in the morning, and this was on the Radio 1 headlines.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-52406342
Now I know radio 1 is hardly high-level thinking, but why would you put this on the headlines? Ok, it looks bad, but it only looks bad because we're involved in this pointless "some people are having a shit time so everyone has to have a shit time" bollocks.QuoteThe captain of HMS Trenchant, a nuclear-powered attack submarine based at Devonport in Plymouth, has been sent home on leave.
Ah that will help...
Nigel (joking, he's not a cunt....)
I'll believe PPE was worth all the media hysteria when we see the evidence of excess mortality among various sectors.
Fair enough, I'll re-phrase that to: I'll believe that it was worth the public hysteria caused by all the implications by the media that supplies of PPE are responsible for excess mortality among healthcare workers, when we see the evidence of excess mortality among various sectors plus the general population by age group.
I'll believe that it was worth the public hysteria caused by all the implications by the media that supplies of PPE are responsible for excess mortality among healthcare workers, when we see the evidence of excess mortality among various sectors plus the general population by age group.
Fair enough, I'll re-phrase that to: I'll believe that it was worth the public hysteria caused by all the implications by the media that supplies of PPE are responsible for excess mortality among healthcare workers, when we see the evidence of excess mortality among various sectors plus the general population by age group.
I imagine most hospital workers aren't too keen to just wait and see how many of them die compared to the general population before they kick up a fuss about PPE.
This is why I'm confused about the gov strategy - if that's the strategy, it's a shit one. Much better to lockdown way harder, whatever estimates you make for the numbers. If it's not the strategy, then what is? Unfortunately nothing the gov says on this seems to shed any light. I don't really get why the media aren't pushing harder on the "isn't your strategy kind of muddled bollocks?" question.
Fair enough, I'll re-phrase that to: I'll believe that it was worth the public hysteria caused by all the implications by the media that supplies of PPE are responsible for excess mortality among healthcare workers, when we see the evidence of excess mortality among various sectors plus the general population by age group.
I imagine most hospital workers aren't too keen to just wait and see how many of them die compared to the general population before they kick up a fuss about PPE.
Exactly. Jesus fucking Christ, get some empathy.
There isn't clear evidence that 1. there is excess mortality in healthcare compared to other sectors. 2. Lack of PPE has led to deaths of healthcare workers. 3. There has actually been large-scale instances of PPE actually running out and staff in high risk areas working unprotected
If evidence emerges I'll change my mind.
...there's making concerns public, and there's media whipping up moral panic - they're good at that.
• A pandemic would play out in up to “three waves”, with each wave expected to last 15 weeks … “with the peak weeks occurring at weeks 6 and 7 in each wave”.
• 50% of the population would be infected and experience symptoms of pandemic influenza during the one or more waves. The actual number of people infected would be higher than this, as there would be a number of asymptomatic cases.
• A pandemic of moderate virulence could lead to 65,600 deaths.
• The potential cost to the UK could be £2.35tn.
• Even after the end of the pandemic, it is likely that it would take months or even years for health and social care services to recover.
• There would be significant public outrage over any perceived poor handling of the government’s preparations and response to the emergency.
There isn't clear evidence that 1. there is excess mortality in healthcare compared to other sectors. 2. Lack of PPE has led to deaths of healthcare workers. 3. There has actually been large-scale instances of PPE actually running out and staff in high risk areas working unprotected
Of course there isn’t. That will only come out in the inevitable public enquiry, or at the very least once the data is complete and available - potentially years down the line.QuoteIf evidence emerges I'll change my mind.
...there's making concerns public, and there's media whipping up moral panic - they're good at that.
So in the absence of the above data your default position is to assume that the media (and by extension the individuals, organisations and unions sounding the alarm bells) are “whipping up moral panic”. Fuck me.
I wish people could consider things without putting words in other people's mouths. My default position is that the truth of what actual impact the PPE situation had on outcomes probably lies somewhere between the picture portrayed in the media and by staff; and the picture portrayed by the government.
I think it is good that you post questioning received ideas Pete. We should be interrogating our assumptions, no question. So I had a think about the stats.
1,227,375 full time equivalent healthcare workers in NHS 2018, from ONS stats
Covid19 deaths In NHS currently = 119
=0.0097%
Going off the ONS data, updated 10 April, deaths in hospital aged under 65 = 13% of total
65 seems a reasonable proxy for working age.
So approximating numbers, 13% of 20K current hospital deaths = 260 or so under 65
BAME individuals account for 63 per (of all staff), 64 per cent (of nursing staff) and 95 per cent of (medical staff) deaths in the same staff groups
It also makes me think the huge amount of noise focused around PPE might be more emotional than rational and perhaps doesn't correlate with the spectrum of risks encountered by different parts of the population.
NHS figure on more or less is quoted as 1,470,000 staff of working age (this is 98% of the total staff of 1.5 million)
So that leaves 106. It gives 94 NHS staff, 10 social care, 2 dental.
So 94 NHS staff / 1,470,000 = 0.006%
The problem with that calculation is the proportion who died who work in places with a high risk of covid exposure is massively more than your number as.by far the majority of NHS staff don't work in those situations. It's so obbious I suspect you of trolling. I hope any NHS staff reading that have a forgiving nature.The expected bellendry from you Offwidth. It isn't my opinion - it's an analysis of the facts published by HSJ 2 days ago.
''the absence of certain workforce groups among those who have died, while welcome, is also notable. Anaesthetists, intensive care doctors and by association nurses and physiotherapists who work in similar settings are believed to be among the highest risk groups of all healthcare workers. It is therefore notable that all of these groups are completely absent from the data set.''
''However, the NHS is estimated to employ approximately 1.2-1.5 million staff, including more than 120,000 doctors, approximately 300,000 nurses and a similar number of healthcare support workers. A modest estimate of the patient-facing NHS workforce might be 600,000-800,000,''
Not a fair comparison. You should only be counting front line NHS staff that are exposed to covid patients. They're who the concern re: PPE is about. The vast majority of the staff you are including will never go near a covid patient, so of course the risk to them is low or close to that of the general population. As an example, less than a 1/3 of NHS staff are doctors and nurses. As far as I am aware the hospitals are also split into "dirty" (covid) and "clean" (non covid) wards to prevent spread so not even all the clinical staff have the same exposure.
Probably worth reading the analysis I linked to earlier, this actually seems to show that if anything that 'frontline covid' staff are less impacted than other NHS staff:
...
What is likely is that these groups of healthcare staff are rigorous about use of personal protective equipment and the associated practices known to reduce risk.'
Probably worth reading the analysis I linked to earlier, this actually seems to show that if anything that 'frontline covid' staff are less impacted than other NHS staff:
Conversely, the absence of certain workforce groups among those who have died, while welcome, is also notable. Anaesthetists, intensive care doctors and by association nurses and physiotherapists who work in similar settings are believed to be among the highest risk groups of all healthcare workers.
This is because both caring for the sickest patients with covid-19 and undertaking airway management (so-called aerosol generating procedures) are associated with high risk of viral exposure and transmission. It is therefore notable that all of these groups are completely absent from the data set.
Again, the reason for this is not known and data on infections and serious illnesses are important to consider as well as fatalities, but these data also are currently lacking. What is likely is that these groups of healthcare staff are rigorous about use of personal protective equipment and the associated practices known to reduce risk.'
The expected bellendry from you Offwidth. It isn't my opinion - it's an analysis of the facts published by HSJ 2 days ago.
I wonder if SAGE is really just someone in the background shouting "push on" and "fuck it, just do it", a bit like Loskott from Dosage 2?
Sorry I put the wrong link. The one with Cummings is https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/revealed-dominic-cummings-on-secret-scientific-advisory-group-for-covid-19I wonder if SAGE is really just someone in the background shouting "push on" and "fuck it, just do it", a bit like Loskott from Dosage 2?
That's Cummings isn't it :) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/europe/uk-coronavirus-sage-secret.html
BREAKING: Chief Adviser involved in advising.
BREAKING: Chief Adviser involved in advising.
BREAKING: Chief Adviser involved in advising.
Pete,
I’ve not time to read the whole paper but but it control for age and co-morbities? It seems to say the mortality rate for the health workers is consistent with the mortality rate of the general population but the deaths in the general population have (I believe) mostly been people near/past retirement age or with co-morbities. So comparing the health worker deaths with the general population does not appear a like for like comparison.
Well latest report is that he was just an observer, which seems fine. That contradicts what I read yesterday though! So there is definitely some political briefing and counter-briefing going on here.
Pete,
I’ve not time to read the whole paper but but it control for age and co-morbities? It seems to say the mortality rate for the health workers is consistent with the mortality rate of the general population but the deaths in the general population have (I believe) mostly been people near/past retirement age or with co-morbities. So comparing the health worker deaths with the general population does not appear a like for like comparison.
For those commenting on the weakness of the basic data - yes we agree. The options were to do our best with this data, openly acknowledging its limitations or to simply ignore the topic... we chose the former.
We've taken a look at age bands comparing our dataset and national data for mortality. Certainly the deaths in the heath and social care workers we identified were in a younger cohort. The population our cases are drawn from (working age population, who are healthy enough to work, in one sector) will inevitably differ from the wider population so this finding is not surprising.
As the overall mortality amongst the people we studied and the whole population is not hugely different - and we'd expect it to be lower in a healthier, younger population - it is reasonable to assume that the data are consistent with an increased mortality in the group we studied. Apologies for not highlighting that earlier.
Taking this anlysis further is challenging and may be stretching the data further than it merits. For real comparison we'd need to kow the mortality figures, by age group, in workers in non-NHS settings and I don't think that is available.
Main conclusion: we need a natonal registry, proper data and analysis by those with access to all the relevant comparative data.
BREAKING: Chief Adviser involved in advising.
So - if you were in a meeting hoping to discuss things candidly about what to advise regarding CV19 and Cummings was at the back of the room - would you be unaffected?
...the fact the PMs most senior advisor has always been present at SAGE meetings undermines my outrage.That’s the government’s line, but it is not the truth. As stated by the previous chief scientific adviser David King.
Good grief, move along, move along. It was a throwaway comment aimed at the Guardian which seems to hear Cummings' name and immediately begin to froth itself into an apoplectic ecstasy of outrage.
Sorry Will, but I have nothing better to do than work myself into a frothing frenzy right now, plus at this rate I'll have to replace my "Make Orwell Fiction Again" t-shirt with a "Make William Gibson Fiction Again" one if Cummings gets his way.
Back to the point at hand, this government appear to find lying as easy as breathing (until some of them got covid-19 that is)...
Well latest report is that he was just an observer, which seems fine..
Well latest report is that he was just an observer, which seems fine..
SAGE needs to be impartial. It also needs to be seen to be impartial. Cummings’ role is political, not scientific. His attendance is incompatible with both points.
...you are talking about a person who is currently in contempt of parliament and who effectively waged war on the education system for 4 years
The Guardian (independently funded don’t forget), channel4 news and to a lesser degree the FT and Mirror are the only media groups giving the government any scrutiny at the moment.
The government are now saying that front line health workers who have died from COVID-19 will get a payment of £60,000.
I might be wrong here but if you die at work or from injury or illness related to your work. You would get compensation anyway.
Am I misinformed.
I suspect there will still be legal claims against the government forthcoming from those who have lost loved ones. Unless there are strings attached to this £60K preventing this.Robert Peston asked this question in the briefing yesterday and Hancock said there wouldn’t be.
I suspect there will still be legal claims against the government forthcoming from those who have lost loved ones. Unless there are strings attached to this £60K preventing this.Robert Peston asked this question in the briefing yesterday and Hancock said there wouldn’t be.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWst-e7UcAEn4bT?format=jpg&name=small)
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1255147479466565636?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1255147479466565636&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Flive%2F2020%2Fapr%2F28%2Fuk-coronavirus-live-news-minutes-silence-to-commemorate-key-workers-who-have-died
:(
And from the UK....
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWsuj0KUcAIsleP?format=jpg&name=900x900)
the NYT has some good graphs on missing deaths/ excess mortality:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html?fbclid=IwAR3YeawMpNHYjZQlySx2oXUnVLPfU7HVaNsol-WU_HVsAcKh6513A1TH4po
the NYT has some good graphs on missing deaths/ excess mortality:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html?fbclid=IwAR3YeawMpNHYjZQlySx2oXUnVLPfU7HVaNsol-WU_HVsAcKh6513A1TH4po
Let's not all get too excited about relaxations just yet:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-ready-to-tighten-lockdown-as-coronavirus-cases-climb-again-jgbsl5xp6
Let's not all get too excited about relaxations just yet:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-ready-to-tighten-lockdown-as-coronavirus-cases-climb-again-jgbsl5xp6
Yeah - reports in other outlets that their R has gone from 0.7 back to 1.0 so relaxations may not come soon...
I had a zoom with a Spanish PhD student of mine (nr Madrid) today and it’s worth remembering that the relaxations there mean he’s only just left his flat for the first time in near 8 weeks. People were completely locked down there... so they’re relaxing their lockdown to something still stricter than ours!
Let's not all get too excited about relaxations just yet:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-ready-to-tighten-lockdown-as-coronavirus-cases-climb-again-jgbsl5xp6
Yeah - reports in other outlets that their R has gone from 0.7 back to 1.0 so relaxations may not come soon...
I had a zoom with a Spanish PhD student of mine (nr Madrid) today and it’s worth remembering that the relaxations there mean he’s only just left his flat for the first time in near 8 weeks. People were completely locked down there... so they’re relaxing their lockdown to something still stricter than ours!
Yet even in Spain they have been going out to the supermarkets all the way through. I'm baffled as to why shopping for food isn't something that gets sorted out anywhere. Perhaps I'm wrong but I find it hard to understand why that isn't the weakest link where transmission is actually occurring. In the general scheme of things, food deliveries don't seem too much of a challenge to me. Just assign each street a delivery slot and a supermarket and do it like bin collections. If people don't or can't order online; just give those people a standardised food-box; perhaps even with some alcohol and cigarettes in so that no-one feels they need to go to the shops.
If it’s not on surfaces and hard to catch via aerosols.... errr... Pandemic how?
Btw - my local Tesco has double/trebled the size of the click and collect operation. Three bays and a big refrigerated container next to the usual cabin for the extra cold stuff. I’ve managed to get a slot every week. Just check once or twice a day.
In the general scheme of things, food deliveries don't seem too much of a challenge to me. Just assign each street a delivery slot and a supermarket and do it like bin collections. If people don't or can't order online; just give those people a standardised food-box; perhaps even with some alcohol and cigarettes in so that no-one feels they need to go to the shops.
Single malt's the way to go.
And some beetroot - that I’m going to have to think about!).
Quality of Meat and veg much better from the box - and I quite like it’s different each week (turkey thighs and a couple of small rump steaks this week!
And some beetroot - that I’m going to have to think about!).
Roast it like spuds and have it with your steaks 👌
And some beetroot - that I’m going to have to think about!).
Roast it like spuds and have it with your steaks 👌
I'm a fan of borscht.
Also of hot beetroots in a white cheese sort (ie like cauliflower cheese).
This is a bit off topic I guess.
I read a German study, that was unable to detect traces of the virus, on any surface, at any publicly used location (supermarkets etc) in the most severe hot spot in Germany. That’s part of the logic behind the Europe wide “Climbing gym reopening plans” that are being developed.
If I get time later I will try and go back through the discussions and find the links
Also no one has said COVID19 spreads very easily.
Haven't residents in care homes to an extent been some of the most heavily locked down individuals around?
Haven't residents in care homes to an extent been some of the most heavily locked down individuals around?
Don't know how you come to this conclusion? Even if only staff are entering and leaving the premises, that's a lot of in/out per day in comparison to the average household where no non-residents at all will be coming through the front door unless you need an emergency plumber/electrician. I imagine if I had half a dozen of my mates coming round for a fingerboard session every day, I'd be at much higher risk (presumably ~7x, adjusted for the chance of me then catching it from them) of catching things even if that's all they're doing outside of their current routine.
I first read the name of the place as Heisenberg, what a pity.
Unless I’m missing it Matt, that paper says nothing about how the virus spreads.
It only seems to estimate prevalence and incidence of the virus, along with an estimate of the fatality rate...
Did anybody see in the news that the Swiss are going to start letting young children see grandparents again - saying something like "they simply don't have the receptors to carry the disease" and that it was the parents who would present the risk to the grandchildren?
This seems out of step with the fact that some young children have died (though it is rare) of the disease. Is it all bollocks?
Another article from Tomas Pueyo
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-how-to-do-testing-and-contact-tracing-bde85b64072e
Some data visualisation on excess deaths. One way of removing the differences in the way countries declare C19 mortality.
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#z-scores-by-country
Did anybody see in the news that the Swiss are going to start letting young children see grandparents again - saying something like "they simply don't have the receptors to carry the disease" and that it was the parents who would present the risk to the grandchildren?
This seems out of step with the fact that some young children have died (though it is rare) of the disease. Is it all bollocks?
Did anybody see in the news that the Swiss are going to start letting young children see grandparents again - saying something like "they simply don't have the receptors to carry the disease" and that it was the parents who would present the risk to the grandchildren?
This seems out of step with the fact that some young children have died (though it is rare) of the disease. Is it all bollocks?
The recent concern about children is, so far as I can tell, an increase in the number of children presenting with symptoms of Kawasaki Disease, which is generally considered to be an autoimmune response to an infection. It still remains rare despite the increase in cases. Having an extreme autoimmune response to a virus can happen independently of how dangerous the virus is in its self to the host, so it may be that the two scenarios aren't mutually exclusive.
Stone - maybe you can answer a question for me. I’ve seen a couple of papers showing that saliva tests are as effective - and have lower false positive rates - than the nose and throat swabs we currently use.
Less invasive and not an aerosol generating procedure too.
Is it possible to switch to saliva based testing without retailing the test equipment in labs?
Will - scan the paper I linked to clearly showing that all children had a similar viral load to adults.
I can say from personal experience the throat and nose swab is a very unpleasant experience. Being asked "What is your gag reflex like?" Is never a good sign.
Wouldn't it need to rely on a positive test result before you could be flagged on the app as a source of virus?Not so apparently. You just register that you have symptoms via the app and then everyone who’s been in contact is alerted. So as tomtom says, unless I’m missing something it’s open to abuse.
Then they'd need to identify you though - which is one of the things everyone wants the app to avoid doing...
I'm not sure this matters very much except for conspiracy theorists. These unusually early cases obviously didn't cause a outbreak unless the virus mutated as the minimum mortality rate seems to still be more than 0.2% and the unfettered infection growth rate (with no social distancing) was similar across the world.
In the meantime the euromomo stats on real data on excess deaths on England versus everyone else in Europe are shocking. People say the 'hidden deaths' would be the same everywhere, they clearly were not.
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
This is good news, surely?
If I understand the post correctly, approximately 1:10 people have the virus (within the setting context) but are asymptomatic?
(You didn’t say what the total, symptomatic and asymptomatic numbers were).
I don’t see a huge argument that a tertiary cancer clinic, should be significantly different in infection incidence than the general population? Unless there is a Covid ward within the same building and communication of people and services between the two (ventilation, cleaning staff etc).
To be clearer, symptomatic patients had already been tested, symptomatic staff were off work so the 9/10% positives were all asymptomatic at the time of the test.
The setting is a tertiary cancer hospital, i.e. it has in patients. They have a Covid positive ward but this testing has shown that there are staff and patients on the non Covid wards that are Covid positive, so will be shedding virus to currently Covid negative patients.
Of course, the early cases simply weren’t infectious...
Don’t be so bloody silly, of course it’s important. Just because it doesn’t fit your chosen narrative (at the risk of sounding like Pete, you are stuck in a certain groove).
If this has been spreading for a month longer than was first assumed (in both Europe and China, since there are reports of unusual cases of pneumonia there from November) then it will be significant. Or are you simply accusing the French of lying?
Spread to vulnerable populations (those prone to severe symptoms) is random. The possibility of an infection spreading for some time, without hitting a susceptible host, is more than a remote chance. Just as it’s entirely possible that here in the UK, we have as yet unidentified early casualties, who were simply described as pneumonia or otherwise (given we now know of some other, diverse, symptoms and complications).
Early diagnosis was primarily based around travel history and contact tracing. The French example, shows the shortcomings of that. And somewhat proves (or adds significant circumstantial evidence for) the last paragraph.
To be clearer, symptomatic patients had already been tested, symptomatic staff were off work so the 9/10% positives were all asymptomatic at the time of the test.
The setting is a tertiary cancer hospital, i.e. it has in patients. They have a Covid positive ward but this testing has shown that there are staff and patients on the non Covid wards that are Covid positive, so will be shedding virus to currently Covid negative patients.
If this has been spreading for a month longer than was first assumed (in both Europe and China, since there are reports of unusual cases of pneumonia there from November) then it will be significant. Or are you simply accusing the French of lying?
Of course, the early cases simply weren’t infectious...
Don’t be so bloody silly, of course it’s important. Just because it doesn’t fit your chosen narrative (at the risk of sounding like Pete, you are stuck in a certain groove).
If this has been spreading for a month longer than was first assumed (in both Europe and China, since there are reports of unusual cases of pneumonia there from November) then it will be significant. Or are you simply accusing the French of lying?
Spread to vulnerable populations (those prone to severe symptoms) is random. The possibility of an infection spreading for some time, without hitting a susceptible host, is more than a remote chance. Just as it’s entirely possible that here in the UK, we have as yet unidentified early casualties, who were simply described as pneumonia or otherwise (given we now know of some other, diverse, symptoms and complications).
Early diagnosis was primarily based around travel history and contact tracing. The French example, shows the shortcomings of that. And somewhat proves (or adds significant circumstantial evidence for) the last paragraph.
To be clearer, symptomatic patients had already been tested, symptomatic staff were off work so the 9/10% positives were all asymptomatic at the time of the test.
The setting is a tertiary cancer hospital, i.e. it has in patients. They have a Covid positive ward but this testing has shown that there are staff and patients on the non Covid wards that are Covid positive, so will be shedding virus to currently Covid negative patients.
The world is a highly connected place so since it was present in China then I'm not surprised there were earlier cases in Europe. The particular French case had no contacts other than his wife (they checked).
In hospitals testing has been good so you would expect people to be tested where local cases have cropped up before the staff show symptoms. So yes that also means I don't think anything like 9/10 remain asymptomatic with C19 from any mass of evidence.
My argument is not a 'narrative' as the disease infomation simply points with very high probability to particular characteristics that mean a mass world spread in December is highly unlikely, unless the virus subsequently mutated to become more infectious/dangerous. If we assume it has been around longer with an exponencial growth giving many asymptomatic cases and the mortality a tenth lower than currently thought ( 0.05% or below) then the per capita mortality rates would be expected to self limit at 500 per million (unless there are a lot of interconnected unknowns, like no immunity from having it and/or a big correlation of mortailty vs dose). NY is already at 1270 per million and they don't think everyone has had it. Also those countries who were successful with track and trace don't fit an older, more slowly spreading less lethal C19.
Random anecdote:The area I live in is very ethnically diverse. There are clear differences in how the lockdown has been observed in different ethnic communities. You would be surprised at how little generalisation there is in the below:
Just went to one of the international supermarkets quite close to us. A very different experience from going to Sainsbury's, Tesco or Aldi! No control over numbers, staff and shoppers didn't really give a fuck about distancing. Makes you wonder if this, and/or the underlying attitude, partly accounts for the disproportionate impact on BAME groups? (Probably 80%+ of staff/shoppers seemed to be BAME)
Random anecdote:The area I live in is very ethnically diverse. There are clear differences in how the lockdown has been observed in different ethnic communities. You would be surprised at how little generalisation there is in the below:
Just went to one of the international supermarkets quite close to us. A very different experience from going to Sainsbury's, Tesco or Aldi! No control over numbers, staff and shoppers didn't really give a fuck about distancing. Makes you wonder if this, and/or the underlying attitude, partly accounts for the disproportionate impact on BAME groups? (Probably 80%+ of staff/shoppers seemed to be BAME)
The Chinese and Vietnamese stores/eateries introduced strict measures or closed before people had even begun stockpiling loo roll. Masks everywhere, one way systems rigidly observed and people going out of their way to stay as far apart as possible.
The South East Asian businesses operate on similar measures to Tesco. Masks are fairly common and there is some attempt to distance but with a sizable minority not bothering.
The African and middle Eastern businesses generally have a sign on the door and may restrict the total number of people allowed inside, there's quite a lot of mask wearing but there is little evidence of anyone observing distancing inside.
There is no lockdown in the Eastern European population. It is business as usual and has been all along. The shops are just as busy as ever and still double up as a community meeting place. Away from businesses, social gatherings never ceased.
Mother-in-law, who lives in Italy (Lecco) thinks her countrymen are deluded wankers.
Dude.
His wife is likely the asymptomatic person who gave him the infection.
Did she find it in a Christmas cracker? Was it a seasonal Immaculate infection?
He, despite having no obvious travel connections or contact, proved symptomatic. Symptomatic is either the small majority, or a minority, state for those infected.
Either way, his infection can logically be assumed to indicate a larger number of infected people.
We know that it is sufficiently infectious to create exponential growth.
It was here and spreading, before anybody in authority realised.
You consistently push an antigovernment narrative, that assumes all current negative outcomes, result from initial inaction from that government.
However, it seems pretty clear, that mother nature was merrily spreading her seeds of joy.
It absolutely affects the government culpability narrative. These infections long preceded even the WHO “Emergency” line, let alone the “Pandemic” categorisation.
No, I dislike Boris and his crew of muppets, intensely and the things they do and decisions they make now, scrutinise away.
But frankly, the first blush, the initial response? It’s hard to really see that they could have done very much better.
If you need an explanation for the dither and u-turn, blame the WHO. They were reluctant to hit the Pandemic button, after the criticism for hitting it too soon in the past and it was out of the bag before the Chinese lockdown.
The world, busy as always, thought it a local problem. They quietly thanked their respective deities that China was an authoritarian state and tutted at quarantine hotels collapsing, whilst assuming it was largely contained and they could concentrate on their favourite political sound bites and pet peeves.
Dig out, blaming the government for not being prepared for a pandemic. However, I see little to indicate any other political party, or even any other world government, would have responded better (and plenty “cough” USA “cough”) who didn’t.
Before you leap in with “but NZ”!
Defence in depth, buddy.
Pete is absolutely on the money.
They had more time to see it coming and fewer entry points and, ultimately, luck.
Because they could have copped an early spreader, much as it seems several European countries and the US did, which would have made their tale somewhat different.
Also, not fitting the stats, just means “no or dead end early infection” and does not preclude earlier infection elsewhere.
The French guy had it.
In December.
So did his children.
There was, categorically, infection earlier than previously thought.
As for our government the detail of their failings I've critised are all public and confirmed. More importantly our excess deaths are way higher than anywhere else in Europe by a large margin and our C19 official deaths will be the highest in Europe in a few days.
I'm not sure this matters very much except for conspiracy theorists. These unusually early cases obviously didn't cause a outbreak unless the virus mutated as the minimum mortality rate seems to still be more than 0.2% and the unfettered infection growth rate (with no social distancing) was similar across the world.I guess it's possible that the virus was rapidly evolving to being more transmissible and perhaps doing so independently both in Europe and China. I'm meaning to have a look at https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1 (done by Sheffield folk :) ) which looks to be about that sort of thing. So I guess R may have been low early on and then attained R=2.5 after the virus had bedded in to human-human transmission.
In the meantime the euromomo stats on real data on excess deaths on England versus everyone else in Europe are shocking. People say the 'hidden deaths' would be the same everywhere, they clearly were not.
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
The data in that FT link does not appear to be up-to date. ONS have released the data in the week ending April 24th now. I also thought the FT excess death stats were all from euromomo so it's best to use the direct link (another benefit is you can manipulate the graph scales and comparisons on that site as well). The main aspects I can see we need to be careful with are: the extrapolation from April 24th; a large number of deaths will be secondary causes, not due to C19 but due to the NHS not functioning as normal or other factors; exact direct comparisons on covid 19 need care due to secondary deaths, different age profiles etc.
I thought mortuaries are 'overwhelmed', which is why we keep adding to emergency body storage facility.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/coronavirus-crisis-puts-pressure-on-crematoria-and-morgues-in-uk
That's the point really, if FT takes the data from Euromomo can you link to the raw data on the Euromomo site you linked to including dates of data inputs used since its not obvious from their charts at all.
On the morgues issue there's a few news stories about pressure and providing extra capacity e.g.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52346488 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52346488)
But nothing about mortuaries being overwhelmed.
It may be that we are facing many more deaths overall that other countries and are 'just' managing to deal with those deaths but if its that much worse I'd like see some proper analysis rather than just you (and me!) trying to interpret some charts on the internet.
Rubbish isn’t it. I kind of hope take up is woeful so they are forced into plan B.
The privacy issues don’t worry me so much as the effectiveness. I don’t *think* it will work if you’re actively using a different app either.
It’s been a shambles hasn’t it. At the start of this I imagined there’d be a vast deployment of state resources...
I can’t imagine someone admitting they sneaked out of lockdown to shag their married neighbour to a guy down the road...
It’s been a shambles hasn’t it. At the start of this I imagined there’d be a vast deployment of state resources, but everything has had a “piss up in a brewery” feel about it.And when we hear all the talk about ”rapidly building a team of 18,000 contact tracers” what they actually mean is outsourcing to a Serco and G4S call centre. While those 750,000 volunteers sit at home waiting for something useful to do.
It seems that the strain, now dominant globally, is more infectious than the original:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1.full.pdf (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1.full.pdf)
Reported in the LA Times, yesterday:
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-05/mutant-coronavirus-has-emerged-more-contagious-than-original?fbclid=IwAR073A2IqUfmKJyJpgCqrTmV_VB-4GzXpIDhlrUBqmrPstO1TZh0S-ZjmD0 (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-05/mutant-coronavirus-has-emerged-more-contagious-than-original?fbclid=IwAR073A2IqUfmKJyJpgCqrTmV_VB-4GzXpIDhlrUBqmrPstO1TZh0S-ZjmD0)
It seems that the strain, now dominant globally, is more infectious than the original:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1.full.pdf (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1.full.pdf)
Reported in the LA Times, yesterday:
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-05/mutant-coronavirus-has-emerged-more-contagious-than-original?fbclid=IwAR073A2IqUfmKJyJpgCqrTmV_VB-4GzXpIDhlrUBqmrPstO1TZh0S-ZjmD0 (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-05/mutant-coronavirus-has-emerged-more-contagious-than-original?fbclid=IwAR073A2IqUfmKJyJpgCqrTmV_VB-4GzXpIDhlrUBqmrPstO1TZh0S-ZjmD0)
That sounds very likely in mutation terms but it's important to say that the first strain in Wuhan was the same mortality rate and had a low percentage of the assyptomatic and was most infectious for those showing symptoms. The mutations reported in this paper don't explain the case in France (earlier mutations might). This subject is important (and tempting to ignore) as the reason the conspiracy theorists believe in a longer spread, of a lower mortality rate virus, that is highly assymptomatic, is it would indicate nearly everyone has had it. Hence herd immunity, hence all this government interference and lockdown shit is unnecessary. It's dangerous and supported by no evidence. In my view it's similar to the climate change denial, and popular with the same people.
I know you are not Matt but the internet is full of such wish fullfillment shit. Its a threat to everyone as such people won't care about following social distancing.
He’s being properly thrown under the bus this morning by the look of it. Hancock now suggesting it’s “a matter for the police”, despite Ferguson not being the one to have left his house so not in breach of the regulations. I don’t remember any of the cabinet suggesting the police should get involved when it was Jenrick in the spotlight. Is that a dead cat I see?I can’t imagine someone admitting they sneaked out of lockdown to shag their married neighbour...It looks like you get a month's grace on that one anyway. Or at least until when some bad news needs a suitable deflection.
All I said about the French case is it doesn't matter as it went nowhere and means nothing to what we face now. It's interesting and needs investigation but most people on the internet (and quite a few on UKC) seem to be misusing it to defend the conspiracy that we have all had C19 and so social distancing is pointless. IMHO its stupid not to have that argument countered. With the current level of population infections we are maybe two weeks from hospitals being overwhelmed if a UK 'lockdown' ends and any subsequent change will too late to respond once that becomes obvious from a new rapid case growth.
This is the worst PM and worst ministerial line up I've ever seen... their CVs look like a rouges gallery... so yes I'm biased against them but they work in full face of the public and experts and with a capable although austerity damaged civil service, NHS, public health and council sector. I think their timing of the 'lockdown' was exactly right (as discussed today on the other thread), their finance response was excellent, so I'm happy I can think past my dislike of them but you're free to make personal attacks about it if you want.
You can't have it both ways Matt. If it was the highly infectious Wuhan variant it should have spread from that guy and the contacts linked to him and so would very likely have led to an outbreak and deaths in France in January. We don't know why it made no difference (if it was the same C19 as in Wuhan) but the fact that it made no difference is clear in the later data. If it was C19 then it could have been dumb luck or a much less serious mutation than that in Wuhan.
If that paper is right it would likely mean most of the EU spread is the newer mutation so thinking we might be seing big differences due to different mutations would be be a big assumption: differences would more likely depend on how well social distancing is working (Sweden indicates this is not just what the government do in terms of formal restrictions but how well people responded to the very clear advice there to social distance) and other factors like better testing, better PPE and infection control in hospitals, care homes etc.
In terms of the UK I'm really worried about several factors: those recent ONS care home numbers, that are tested as C19, seemingly still increasing (and community deaths); that R is still estimated at being so high in the UK; and the flat new case data. Look at the last three weeks of new cases of Italy and Spain to see what the decline should look like (presumably due to their stiffer lockdown?) and it indicates we are not anywhere near sensible relaxation as yet and may even need to tighten up a bit.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
You can't have it both ways Matt. If it was the highly infectious Wuhan variant it should have spread from that guy and the contacts linked to him and so would very likely have led to an outbreak and deaths in France in January.We don't know it didn't yet, there's a pretty low death rate from actual infection, with lots not showing any symptoms. Those deaths if there were any would have been registered as flu or pneumonia at the time and I doubt they've been back tested, if that's even possible now.
With that phone app for contact tracing. Can't people sidestep their privacy concerns by only switching it on when they are going to the supermarket and not when they are doing bank heists or whatever?
Article comparing death/cases For when Italy and France Relaxed lockdown rules compared to the UK. Spoiler - we’re a long way from the point they were at..Yes, and given the numbers coming from the BoE today I can’t help feeling we’ll end up both with a massive death rate and a fucked economy. It’s hard to see how lockdown measures can be eased very much given where we are currently relative to the ‘5 tests’ the govt have come up, so the assumption by the BoE that the economy will start coming back on stream from June onwards seems pretty optimistic.
Article comparing death/cases For when Italy and France Relaxed lockdown rules compared to the UK. Spoiler - we’re a long way from the point they were at..Yes, and given the numbers coming from the BoE today I can’t help feeling we’ll end up both with a massive death rate and a fucked economy. It’s hard to see how lockdown measures can be eased very much given where we are currently relative to the ‘5 tests’ the govt have come up, so the assumption by the BoE that the economy will start coming back on stream from June onwards seems pretty optimistic.
Article comparing death/cases For when Italy and France Relaxed lockdown rules compared to the UK. Spoiler - we’re a long way from the point they were at..
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-peak-deaths-cases-covid-19-cases-chart-stats-a9502196.html
edited to add link to twitter thread: https://twitter.com/aallan/status/1257936154621612032?s=21
Sounds like the row back/ uturn on ‘unoockdown’ has started.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-very-limited-lockdown-changes-in-england-downing-street-11984686
Surely the ‘briefings from unknown source’ and associated media frenzy building up expectations is part of the strategy? Rather than them losing control of the message. Though I can’t be arsed to think long enough about it to decide what benefit that strategy is to the govt. But as spidermonkey says it’s pretty tiresome whatever it is.
he's just a middle aged contrarian incel in my eyes.
I'm just not sure the government are that Machiavellian for this to all be part of the strategy.You’re probably right of course. It’s just hard to disentangle what is and isn’t sometimes, especially when this government* has the history it does in terms of its ability to control message and manipulate thinking.
As per Hanlon's Razor, never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity!I now completely agree. It was just a complete shit show of mixed messaging kicked off by a remark made on the hoof by BJ at PMQs and then amplified by the Downing St briefings. No strategy. Just incompetence as per usual.
stay at home as much as possible
Showing our supremacy in the world stats as we irresponsibly flount lockdown to celebrate VE Day in the worst fashion. Glad I’ve had a couple of weeks away from ITU to recuperate as the next wave is going to make this horrific statistic even worse. Things are about to get busy .https://twitter.com/JonesTheBosher/status/1259373302289772545
I think this {gov briefings} is untrustworthy communication of statistics.
Britain now has the highest coronavirus death rate of any European country, and unpatriotic critics are already trying to connect this data, in some way, to the government’s response to the crisis, as if they were somehow related.
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
I found this very interesting and enlightening, worth reading through.
So as per my posts on B3 from here: https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603070.html#msg603070 (https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603070.html#msg603070)
and here:
://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603488.html#msg603488 (https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603488.html#msg603488)
There's now more evidence to back this up.
Preclinical research on NR and its role in covid-19 infected cells has now been released today in pre-print form, available here: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.047480v3
Note my disclaimers - I'm a shareholder in Chromadex (which are up 22% on this news)
ccu cgg cgg gca
Glad to see scientific rigour is making a comeback. Kids need a control group.
I am not a scientist. maybe one will be along shortly. What I understand is this:
Enzymes are catalysts; they drive reactions. Furin is a common human cell catalyst which changes inactive proteins into a chemically active form so they can do their jobs. Uniquely amongst coronaviruses, SARS-Cov2 has 12 bases in its RNA which allow furin to activate the protein which permits the virus to penetrate the host cell membrane. Its presence within the human cell causes the newly replicated virus cells to have that protein already activated, ready to penetrate the membrane of adjacent cells. A bit like a cocked rifle. Lethal.
As it say, infinite number of monkeys, something was bound to crop up sooner or later.
Interesting. Seems to validate the Quillette piece (https://quillette.com/2020/03/27/covid-19-science-update-for-march-27-super-spreaders-and-the-need-for-new-prediction-models/) I shared a couple of months ago which was not received well here?
It is. I know Trump sounded stupid saying it, but it really is a "clever" virus. As it say, infinite number of monkeys, something was bound to crop up sooner or later.
The data just doesn't match superspeader dominance when the outbreak has taken off in the population (eg those infected nearly always infect their own family)
“I don’t think this is quite like SARS or MERS, where we observed very large superspreading clusters,” Leung says. “But we are certainly seeing a lot of concentrated clusters where a small proportion of people are responsible for a large proportion of infections.” But in a recent preprint, Adam Kucharski of LSHTM estimated that k for COVID-19 is as low as 0.1. “Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread,” Kucharski says.
The Pen y Fan arguments are still wrong in a way that happens to suit libertarian views.
A study in Japan found that the risk of infection indoors is almost 19 times higher than outdoors. (Japan, which was hit early but has kept the epidemic under control, has built its COVID-19 strategy explicitly around avoiding clusters, advising citizens to avoid closed spaces and crowded conditions.)
The data just doesn't match superspeader dominance when the outbreak has taken off in the population (eg those infected nearly always infect their own family)
Does anyone on here have experience of getting tested without being an essential worker or showing symptoms of covid?
I’m asking for my housemate, whose father died yesterday and they want to go home to be with family members. Family members are suggesting getting tested, to protect elderly mother.
I’ve read the guidelines which say only essential workers and those showing symptoms can get a test.
Does anyone on here have experience of getting tested without being an essential worker or showing symptoms of covid?
I’m asking for my housemate, whose father died yesterday and they want to go home to be with family members. Family members are suggesting getting tested, to protect elderly mother.
I’ve read the guidelines which say only essential workers and those showing symptoms can get a test.
Just been out with the Family to Delamere.. (forest tracks - bike trails etc...) and it was rammed (like a weekend on a nice day).It’s fucked tomtom.
Not much social distancing going on along the main paths - especially with large family groups.
Not much social distancing going on along the main paths - especially with large family groups. I hated it.
Not much social distancing going on along the main paths - especially with large family groups. I hated it.
I’ve been staying away from anywhere I think might be busy so I can just pretend everyone is doing a great job!
I swam from Petitor point to Long Quarry point (caught two lobsters too)
Just been out with the Family to Delamere.. (forest tracks - bike trails etc...) and it was rammed (like a weekend on a nice day).It’s fucked tomtom.
Not much social distancing going on along the main paths - especially with large family groups.
I was at Ilkley the other day and it was the same - big groups of lads all congregating, teenage couples snogging (too young to be moved out and living together), extended families nowhere near social distancing. Local Tesco this morning had no queuing system, way too many people in there, a one way route that everyone was ignoring and people bumping into each other - I just walked out. Plumber was round to fix the toilet this morning - no mask, no concern (“It’s all a bit over the top this corona thing isn’t it”), touching everything in sight, had been working all the way through (“I’ll get a bit from the govt but not much cos you know us plumbers we fiddle it don’t we”), admitted to visiting his family regularly.
It’s all just fucked.
Agree. Seems people can't deal with middle ground. It's either lockdown or BAU for a significant enough proportion of the populace to pretty much negate the effort of the rest. That's how it looks anyway.
You've got to hope that a certain type of herd immunity eventually emerges, whereby all the headless chickens who think SD is a waste of time have already caught the thing. Total carnage seems likely in the meantime.
By coincidence, an old friend just put the following on FB:
“ I have been seeing a lot of posts about how effective the Government have been at controlling the pandemic in the UK. Having been working at a Covid 19 testing site, I feel any failings are due to the stupidity of people, rather than a massive failing on the government. I am not protecting them, or saying that one party is better than the other. As I feel with this unprecedented pandemic, all parties would have suffered a similar fate. However, when a car full of people, all about the same age, turn up to be tested and it is only the driver being tested, then you have to ask, why the other 3 people need to be in the car, especially if the driver feels they have shown enough symptoms to go through testing. Then to top it off, they drive across the road to the Range and all go shopping! It is the idiotic general populous that will bring us down, more than the government! Rant over”
Prior to this, the vast majority of people out and about behaved sensibly.This is my feeling based on what I'm seeing now.
Once a few people act this way lots follow and then many more start to wonder if it's worth persisting with SD if others aren't.
I wonder if it's a backlash from the Cummings affair, or just idiocy.
It’s not Cummings behaviour that’s the problem - the issue is that he wasn’t punished (in ANY shape or form) and has not apologised at all.His behaviour is a bit of a problem. He wrote the guidance, or at least helped to (and undoubtedly signed off on it) but then failed to follow it. The lack of punishment has nakedly exposed who actually runs No 10 and shown the arrogance and lack of humility of Cummings, but the initial behaviour was also wrong. He’s either proved his own guidance wasn’t clear in the first place (if he can interpret it differently to >80% of the population - I don’t believe this btw), or he thought he was special and it didn’t apply to him (then used a loophole meant for victims of domestic violence as an excuse when he was caught - more likely). Either way his behaviour was bad from the start and just got worse and worse IMO.
Green light that you can get away with whatever you want. From the very top.
It's wrong, but it's human nature that until a family member or close friend is seriously affected, most people will assume that this is just something that happens to other people.
It’s not Cummings behaviour that’s the problem - the issue is that he wasn’t punished (in ANY shape or form) and has not apologised at all.His behaviour is a bit of a problem. He wrote the guidance, or at least helped to (and undoubtedly signed off on it) but then failed to follow it. The lack of punishment has nakedly exposed who actually runs No 10 and shown the arrogance and lack of humility of Cummings, but the initial behaviour was also wrong. He’s either proved his own guidance wasn’t clear in the first place (if he can interpret it differently to >80% of the population - I don’t believe this btw), or he thought he was special and it didn’t apply to him (then used a loophole meant for victims of domestic violence as an excuse when he was caught - more likely). Either way his behaviour was bad from the start and just got worse and worse IMO.
Green light that you can get away with whatever you want. From the very top.
I see patients recovering from the worst stages of it at work, and frankly given the state of many of them a couple of months down the line, I think that people need to get a lot more scared. You might get a mild case, or, you might get death or several months of agony and struggling to find the energy to stand up.
I see patients recovering from the worst stages of it at work, and frankly given the state of many of them a couple of months down the line, I think that people need to get a lot more scared. You might get a mild case, or, you might get death or several months of agony and struggling to find the energy to stand up.
I hear this time and again. Speaking to a friend on the weekend, she said she probably contracted it at a conference before lockdown, from sitting next to someone a few hours who had it (so moderate load she thought) and she was in bed for a week, and is only now feeling like she can do any running at all, and that is still very slow and very short distances. She reasonably fit and healthy and in early 40s.
I see patients recovering from the worst stages of it at work, and frankly given the state of many of them a couple of months down the line, I think that people need to get a lot more scared. You might get a mild case, or, you might get death or several months of agony and struggling to find the energy to stand up.
When was the last time lives were worth a million quid on average? Especially old/sick ones. The NHS cost effectiveness threshold is something like £20k per QALY. Cant see how the covid cost isn't quite handsomely north of that.
Guidance in my industry allows for you to essentially put a price on loss of life when comparing it to the cost of remedial works. That figure is considerably in excess of £20k and it's far nearer the million quid.
Imagine for instance you've done a load of works to make something safe in 2018 to current best practice as the loss of life as a result of failure is likely. You spend £Xm. In 2020 if that guidance is updated and the difference between the 2018 condition and the current isn't 'that much' (in terms of loss of life) but will cost £££ to improve to the modern standard it's considered disproportionate. However, as above, those figures aren't ~£20k/head.
I see patients recovering from the worst stages of it at work, and frankly given the state of many of them a couple of months down the line, I think that people need to get a lot more scared. You might get a mild case, or, you might get death or several months of agony and struggling to find the energy to stand up.
I hear this time and again. Speaking to a friend on the weekend, she said she probably contracted it at a conference before lockdown, from sitting next to someone a few hours who had it (so moderate load she thought) and she was in bed for a week, and is only now feeling like she can do any running at all, and that is still very slow and very short distances. She reasonably fit and healthy and in early 40s.
I see patients recovering from the worst stages of it at work, and frankly given the state of many of them a couple of months down the line, I think that people need to get a lot more scared. You might get a mild case, or, you might get death or several months of agony and struggling to find the energy to stand up.
In addition to the brutally long recovery for people who've been hospitalized, especially people who've been on ventilators etc., there also seems to be a phenomenon where some people get fairly mild cases but very prolonged post-viral symptoms:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/15/weird-hell-professor-advent-calendar-covid-19-symptoms-paul-garner
This is a weird fucking virus.
Had a test yesterday. The COVID app sent me an email saying go get a test (despite having no symptoms) as they wanted to test people who may not have it as well.
Anyway / 7pm I booked a test (took 2 min) for 7:30. Left at 7:10 and was home at 7:35. 3 out of 12 ‘bays’ at the test centre were open and there was a que of 1-2 cars per bay. The throat swab was easy (no gag) but he had a good root up my nose which made me sneeze!
See when I get a result.
Embarrassingly I don't know this and can't find a definitive answer. Anyone know the length of validity of a negative test, ie. does a negative test mean you don't have COVID on that day but a test taken the next day might show as positive?
Thank you. That prompts 2 further questions. Given the above:-Embarrassingly I don't know this and can't find a definitive answer. Anyone know the length of validity of a negative test, ie. does a negative test mean you don't have COVID on that day but a test taken the next day might show as positive?
^^ yes. Its only negative for the time the swab was taken.
Thank you. That prompts 2 further questions. Given the above:-Embarrassingly I don't know this and can't find a definitive answer. Anyone know the length of validity of a negative test, ie. does a negative test mean you don't have COVID on that day but a test taken the next day might show as positive?
^^ yes. Its only negative for the time the swab was taken.
1. are those admitted to hospital with covid symptoms tested on a daily basis and not just upon admission to take account of the short validity period of a negative test?
2. what is the current assessment of the incubation period before the onset of symptoms during which you are infectious but don't know you are?
I think on average it’s 5 days from infection to symptoms... to take a stab at a couple of days before that...I'm a little confused. So roughly 5 days incubation period (infection to onset of symptoms). What did you mean by the words in bold? Sorry for asking, my brain is also clearly on lockdown... :-[
Anyone know the length of validity of a negative test, ie. does a negative test mean you don't have COVID on that day but a test taken the next day might show as positive?
Isn’t there quite a lot of research showing that people have the virus and are shedding/capable of passing it on a couple of days before they become symptomatic (timings approximate as there seems to be no hard or fast rule..)
Pretty sure, once symptomatic, you test positive, barring a faulty test.
What it won’t tell you, is if you have had it and are now virus free (which, apparently, doesn’t mean symptom free, as the damage can leave you with symptoms that outlast the infection).
Isn’t there quite a lot of research showing that people have the virus and are shedding/capable of passing it on a couple of days before they become symptomatic (timings approximate as there seems to be no hard or fast rule..)
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html
I like the "who says" at the end of the link.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html
My conclusion is no one has a clue and are all winging it. Some are doing better than others.
Btw - anyone here want to eat in a restaurant for an hour or two with only 1m spacing? Just a straw poll...Latest polling already shows overwhelming lack of public support for relaxing 2m rule. I’m also a no on that one.
Me too
Btw - anyone here want to eat in a restaurant for an hour or two with only 1m spacing? Just a straw poll...
Also of some concern was that she had been off work, ill, for about a week in April. She had a test that confirmed she had CV-19, however an antibody test recently that said she had not got immunity.
Anecdotally, from an ICU nurse on a covid ward, admission numbers for CV on her ward were starting to noticeably rise again as of about the start of last week.
Most admissions seem to be in their 30s - 50s (presumably this reflects the working population), about 50% of admissions end up intubated. Of those intubated they have so far had 3(!) people recover.
Also of some concern was that she had been off work, ill, for about a week in April. She had a test that confirmed she had CV-19, however an antibody test recently that said she had not got immunity.
Must admit, I was starting to get a bit more relaxed about it all until that (socially distanced, outside) conversation.
Edit - another 1500 new cases today... its just not dropping here like it did in Spain (and to a lesser extent Italy)...
Negative antibody test doesn’t mean you haven’t had it. I can’t remember the exact figures I saw but there is evidence that at 8(?? From memory, don’t quote me) weeks post infection antibody levels drop (or can drop) below the threshold for a positive test.BBC's More or Less looked at the antibody tests from Roche and one other company, I forget who. They concluded that the data had been cherry picked to appear far better than the truth and that many qualifications and caveats were required before the tests were worthwhile.
Whilst this is in no way at all conclusive evidence that immunity is not retained, it is possibly not a great sign.
And the gaining Herd Immunity seems to take far longer than people thought - so the pain whilst experiencing immunity building goes on and on.
What fascinated me was how those countries that have gone down the herd immunity to protect the economy route have had their economy’s screwed anyway - because of non prescribed behavioural changes.
Negative antibody test doesn’t mean you haven’t had it. I can’t remember the exact figures I saw but there is evidence that at 8(?? From memory, don’t quote me) weeks post infection antibody levels drop (or can drop) below the threshold for a positive test.
Whilst this is in no way at all conclusive evidence that immunity is not retained, it is possibly not a great sign.
The new normal won’t be the old normal and herein lies our freedom. Mourn the pleasures and recreate them screened off if you like. Or understand that pleasures mutate too and it’s time to find some new ones.
I’ll see if I can dig out the information I saw. But don’t hold me to the 8 weeks statement, as I said it was from memory so I could be way out on the timescale. The antibody drop off was definitely a thing though. As I recall this isn’t necessarily a sign that immunity is lost in a short time frame, and I don’t want to be seen as suggesting that it is.
Again dredging up from the depths of memory I’m fairly sure there is at least one other example of an immunisable disease which yields a cyclical level of antibody, meaning if you’re tested for immunity at the wrong time in the cycle you would “fail” the test due to having antibody levels that are sub-detectable, whilst still actually being immune. I’m afraid I can’t recall the specific example and a guess would be just that.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53095336
Change of tack on the tracing app.
The results “help to understand the start of the circulation of the virus in Italy,” the ISS said.
From Guardian live
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jun/19/coronavirus-covid-19-live-news-update-us-questions-beijing-cluster-figures-who-vaccine-doses-latest-updates
"Researchers discovered genetic traces of Sars-CoV-2 - as the virus is officially known - in samples of waste water collected in Milan and Turin at the end of last year, and Bologna in January, the ISS institute said in a statement seen by AFP on Friday.
Italy’s first known native case was discovered mid-February.
The results “help to understand the start of the circulation of the virus in Italy,” the ISS said.
They also “confirm the by-now consolidated international evidence” as to the strategic function of sewer samples as an early detection tool, it added."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53095336
Change of tack on the tracing app.
From Guardian live
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jun/19/coronavirus-covid-19-live-news-update-us-questions-beijing-cluster-figures-who-vaccine-doses-latest-updates
"Researchers discovered genetic traces of Sars-CoV-2 - as the virus is officially known - in samples of waste water collected in Milan and Turin at the end of last year, and Bologna in January, the ISS institute said in a statement seen by AFP on Friday.
Italy’s first known native case was discovered mid-February.
The results “help to understand the start of the circulation of the virus in Italy,” the ISS said.
They also “confirm the by-now consolidated international evidence” as to the strategic function of sewer samples as an early detection tool, it added."
I seem to remember taking some stick from you, on this subject, a couple of weeks ago...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53095336
Change of tack on the tracing app.
Well, Apple say they’re lying and the UK Government haven’t contacted them at all:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53105642 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53105642)
From Guardian live
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jun/19/coronavirus-covid-19-live-news-update-us-questions-beijing-cluster-figures-who-vaccine-doses-latest-updates
"Researchers discovered genetic traces of Sars-CoV-2 - as the virus is officially known - in samples of waste water collected in Milan and Turin at the end of last year, and Bologna in January, the ISS institute said in a statement seen by AFP on Friday.
Italy’s first known native case was discovered mid-February.
The results “help to understand the start of the circulation of the virus in Italy,” the ISS said.
They also “confirm the by-now consolidated international evidence” as to the strategic function of sewer samples as an early detection tool, it added."
I seem to remember taking some stick from you, on this subject, a couple of weeks ago...
I argued against making assumptions that this is the same mutation of the virus, not that you were wrong saying it was around in the EU earlier than people thought. It's a big puzzle with missing pieces but nearly all the data still indicates the current deadly characteristics of the virus could not have been around then or we would have seen deaths in January in Italy and France.
Bollocks.
You said I was spreading conspiracy stories. Do I have to quote those posts? I just re-read them.
Also, the post I made about the discovery of the more infectious mutation, was an entirely separate post, several posts later, from the link I posted to the French early case article.
You were way off base then, and even further now. In fact, you called any countenance of any “early infection” line of thought, dangerous.
FFS, there is even strong circumstantial evidence of a much earlier outbreak than has yet been considered, based on a 10/12x increase, above seasonal, of hospitalised Flu cases in China in the Autumn of 2019.
I don’t know if you are aware of this, but you often come across as a bit of a slave to the “Party line” or consensus. Both politically and in matters such as this.
(That probably seems harsh and unduly personal, especially coming via the impersonal medium of a forum post. I promise, we’d get on well arguing such things over a pint, it wouldn’t be a bad tempered affair).
I’m rather combative and flit around from idea to idea, with deeply held convictions, that last for all of five seconds before I lurch off on a tangent and forget why I cared. You seem to run on tracks, that require a committee vote, ratification from the central party, authorisation forms (in triplicate) and a duly appointed (union recognised) operator to change the Points; before you can deviate. I suspect, the decoupling and turntable operations required for you to turn around completely, would be epic...
I thought that this article is interesting, I've wondered about the obsession with modelling scenarios endlessly : https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2020/07/government-chose-follow-wrong-science-lethal-social-and-economic-consequences
I'd thought it was known for some time that tiny airborne droplets (i.e. those which can travel further than a short distance) were a risk if you were present downwind or in a poorly ventilated space for a prolonged period - because the tiny airborne particles will carry fewer viruses then big droplets, so exposure needs to be longer to achieve an infectious dose.
This is why opening pubs and restaurants, car sharing, etc is a bad idea? Because distancing doesn't work in unventilated spaces?
This was in that contact tracing blog post that was linked to in pages past. Is this only now just becoming properly evidenced?
I'd thought it was known for some time that tiny airborne droplets (i.e. those which can travel further than a short distance) were a risk if you were present downwind or in a poorly ventilated space for a prolonged period - because the tiny airborne particles will carry fewer viruses then big droplets, so exposure needs to be longer to achieve an infectious dose.
This is why opening pubs and restaurants, car sharing, etc is a bad idea? Because distancing doesn't work in unventilated spaces?
This was in that contact tracing blog post that was linked to in pages past. Is this only now just becoming properly evidenced?
Sentence 2 of the article if you looked at it:
“ WHO bows to pressure from scientists about risk from aerosol transmission”
So as per my posts on B3 from here: https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603070.html#msg603070 (https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603070.html#msg603070)
and here:
://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603488.html#msg603488 (https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603488.html#msg603488)
There's now more evidence to back this up.
Preclinical research on NR and its role in covid-19 infected cells has now been released today in pre-print form, available here: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.047480v3
Note my disclaimers - I'm a shareholder in Chromadex (which are up 22% on this news)
Further research adding evidence to the B3 / NAD+ hypothesis.
https://twitter.com/FehrLab/status/1260342672688119810 (https://twitter.com/FehrLab/status/1260342672688119810)
Hearing more and more stories about very fit people in their 50s and 60s suffering life-changing conditions. A climbing friend was telling me this the weekend about his super-fit friend in his 50s who caught covid and suffered a stroke due to it. He said out of all his friends in that age group this was the last person he'd have guessed would fare badly. Seems a lot of the outcome is down to the reaction of the individual's inflammatory response, which is hard to predict.
Just wondering with masks becoming compulsory in shops has anyone bought one that they can recommend? Been looking this evening and there seems to be a massive variation in materials used and costs.
My friends in the Cotswolds have the recurring problem: they recover a bit then get ill again, and again. 5 bouts so far. They were fit and healthy triathletes in their late 50s.
Sorry to hear that Ben. Hope it fades now.
Upcoming family holiday at gite in Brittany mid August, booked 12 months ago. Fully expecting virus to throw a complete bag of spanners in the works. If quarantine imposed we’ll stay home but lose the money. Insurers will want FCO ‘don’t travel ‘ notice to pay out.
tbh, anything positive will be seen as a bonus right now.
Not keen on losing money but it’s only money, not something big like health, so will not get too exercised over it if we have to stay home.
Upcoming family holiday at gite in Brittany mid August, booked 12 months ago. Fully expecting virus to throw a complete bag of spanners in the works. If quarantine imposed we’ll stay home but lose the money. Insurers will want FCO ‘don’t travel ‘ notice to pay out.
tbh, anything positive will be seen as a bonus right now.
Not keen on losing money but it’s only money, not something big like health, so will not get too exercised over it if we have to stay home.
If only everyone saw it like that. All I ever seem to hear on the news, or at work is whining bores bleating about how their annual couple of weeks cultivating alcoholism and skin cancer is their right.
I think that depends a lot on your own circumstances: whether you can shrug-off losing the money, take the hit of being quarantined etc. If it means losing money you can't afford to and losing your job/income if you get quarantined then I'd be thinking of cancelling.
If only everyone saw it like that. All I ever seem to hear on the news, or at work is whining bores bleating about how their annual couple of weeks cultivating alcoholism and skin cancer is their right.
I do have a shit immune system so I am more cautious than the general population...
I'm pretty gutted because this was a month long trip round classic western US venues with the Mrs at the end of my PhD, but (most) of the rocks will still be there in a couple of years...
If only everyone saw it like that. All I ever seem to hear on the news, or at work is whining bores bleating about how their annual couple of weeks cultivating alcoholism and skin cancer is their right.
What a fucking horrible comment, typical of a few you get on here. A lot of people work there arses off all year, are not outdoor types, and whos one big break a year is to fly to Spain and chill in the sun having a few beers but as they are not living in a van doing what you deem as virtuous stuff you write this.
Very daily mail esq stereotyping.
Pre-print from the Lancet:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.16.20127357v1?rss=1 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.16.20127357v1?rss=1)
And the article in Forbes that lead me to it:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/07/31/new-evidence-suggests-young-children-spread-covid-19-more-efficiently-than-adults/ (https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/07/31/new-evidence-suggests-young-children-spread-covid-19-more-efficiently-than-adults/)
Pre-print from the Lancet:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.16.20127357v1?rss=1 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.16.20127357v1?rss=1)
And the article in Forbes that lead me to it:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/07/31/new-evidence-suggests-young-children-spread-covid-19-more-efficiently-than-adults/ (https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/07/31/new-evidence-suggests-young-children-spread-covid-19-more-efficiently-than-adults/)
If this is confirmed after peer review it has obvious implications for the reopening of schools.
I still have more chance of picking it up doing the food shop than in my local pub.
Looks like 27+ cases linked to one Aberdeen bar so far...
There's now new area specific legislation:
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1290651684876759041?s=20
It supposedly covers more than was announced last week but I'm not clear if there's an intention on briefing out what it does mean.
My issue is with blanket bans being forced on businesses due to others not towing the line.
...where people are also being pushed to treatment faster as well (rather than coughing away at home) that seems to result in far lower deaths. Anecdotally etc..
Can't help but wonder why our mortality rate per cap is so bad compared to the rest of the world. (Care home disaster probably a factor - but given our hospitals were not quite over-run what led to this...?)
Its not just the testing - its treating people earlier - that could avoid someone ending up in ICU etc...
Looks like 27+ cases linked to one Aberdeen bar so far...
Confirmed outbreak links to another restaurant, hotel and another bar. They think it was a french oil worker flying in and going out for a night before mobilising offshore. I expect we will have a city lockdown soon, hope it doesn't extend to 'shire.
The numbers are real.
Isn't there something weird about the way we record deaths related to covid? Ie that if you've ever had it and you die, no matter how much later, it's recorded as covid related and included in the stats. Ould that account for the difference? Can't remember where I read about it though, sorry.
Isn't there something weird about the way we record deaths related to covid? Ie that if you've ever had it and you die, no matter how much later, it's recorded as covid related and included in the stats. Ould that account for the difference? Can't remember where I read about it though, sorry.
The numbers that involves are tiny proportion of the total covid deaths. If anything in the UK covid deaths are underreported as many who die at home still don't get tested. Estimates are as high as 10% (from a proportion of the 10,000 unaccounted for excess deaths to date).
What I meant by the numbers being real are they are the average current daily official government reported covid deaths (which were always lower than the ONS covid excess deaths) and the average daily official government reported cases from 3 weeks back.
The numbers are way larger than any likely false negative effect.
It’s really hard with the kids impacts. Things we know (seem to be consensus) are that kids can have the virus - and a significant percentage can get it. Mortality/serious illness in kids is very low.
But the big questions are how good are kids at transmitting it (a) between each other and (b) to adults.
Sure I'm thumping a familiar tub, but pubs should never have opened. When in contact with others everyone needs to be cautious and sensible about exposure, and in a pub with loads of alcohol it's never going to happen, when after 6 pints you have your "youremybestmatemate" in a headlock hug. Yet gyms and swimming pools remained closed.
This should probably be in the "balls to" thread, but pretty damning of the behavior of Aberdeen footballers, whose formal apology reads like it was written by Domininc C.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53701572
My opinion is very different. Keep all the pubs etc open, open the gyms, send all the kids back to school and stop people meeting in houses.Do you think there would be compliance with that? I think a lot of people would think that it's bollocks that you can meet another household indoors in a pub with a load of other people but not meet another household in their house, and if people think it's bollocks then they're unlikely to go along with it post-Cummings and it's much harder to enforce than shutting the pubs.
Eliminates something there appears to be an issue with that has no positive effect on the economy and allows everything that helps the economy to get on with it. Reduces the r number by the .3 someone suggests we need to open the schools.
My opinion is very different. Keep all the pubs etc open, open the gyms, send all the kids back to school and stop people meeting in houses.
Eliminates something there appears to be an issue with that has no positive effect on the economy and allows everything that helps the economy to get on with it. Reduces the r number by the .3 someone suggests we need to open the schools.
Granted it may not be of the same scale and isn't in the same sector.
To TomTom: having done two tests myself, I think a big spanner in the works of school testing would be just how nasty the current test is. I found the throat swabs made me gag violently and the nose swabs to be quite painful.
My opinion is very different. Keep all the pubs etc open, open the gyms, send all the kids back to school and stop people meeting in houses.
Eliminates something there appears to be an issue with that has no positive effect on the economy and allows everything that helps the economy to get on with it. Reduces the r number by the .3 someone suggests we need to open the schools.
I try and avoid this topic currently, but I am amazed you think this is feasible. Not saying it won't happen, but I don't really buy the idea that transmission is happening wholesale in peoples living rooms and not in a crowded pub! It defies all logic.
I would close whatever is needed to get schools open in September, but god only knows how its going to work.
My opinion is very different. Keep all the pubs etc open ... and stop people meeting in houses.
Sure I'm thumping a familiar tub, but pubs should never have opened. When in contact with others everyone needs to be cautious and sensible about exposure, and in a pub with loads of alcohol it's never going to happen, when after 6 pints you have your "youremybestmatemate" in a headlock hug. Yet gyms and swimming pools remained closed.
This should probably be in the "balls to" thread, but pretty damning of the behavior of Aberdeen footballers, whose formal apology reads like it was written by Domininc C.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53701572
My opinion is very different. Keep all the pubs etc open, open the gyms, send all the kids back to school and stop people meeting in houses.
Eliminates something there appears to be an issue with that has no positive effect on the economy and allows everything that helps the economy to get on with it. Reduces the r number by the .3 someone suggests we need to open the schools.
My opinion is very different. Keep all the pubs etc open ... and stop people meeting in houses.
That would certainly have cut transmission over Eid!
People don't seem to understand the difference between Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha.
I ventured into Northernden on Sat night to pick up a takeaway and had to wait/wander around for ten min. The “local” (they are VERY local) bars were packed - no distancing between anyone. The restaurant I picked the grub up from was small - had halved its eating space - spreading tables with perplex inbetween. But it was hot, airless lots of people coming and going behind the counter - drivers - customers coming and going.
No way on earth I’d go and eat in there At the moment and I’ll get delivery next time - bonkers. No wonder it’s been on the up around Manchester.
The Aberdeen Bar outbreak is now up past 200 cases O read earlier - and there seem To be several Similar cases in the news - eg a pub in Stone.
As Chris said - when people are pissed inhibitions and rule obeying tend to disappear..
I suspect if the social distancing measures were enforced by the licensing authorities (that pubs are shit scared of in general) rather than the police(?) then it might have been a different outcome.
Sitting in a country beer garden Getting drinks by nipping through a pub one way system to get a drink from a spaced que and Perspex screened bar is alright. But going into a far more compact city venue or somewhere packed - forget about it for me. Nuts.
I've heard that from quite a few people round here, despite the fact they are all blatantly flouting the guidelines themselves. It's always someone else's fault.My opinion is very different. Keep all the pubs etc open ... and stop people meeting in houses.That would certainly have cut transmission over Eid!
People don't seem to understand the difference between Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha.
TBH I don't care what they have to close to be sure they can get kids back in school full time...
TBH I don't care what they have to close to be sure they can get kids back in school full time...
You might if it meant you could no longer provide for your kids because your business or employer had just gone to the wall.
It’s odd. I think it’s entirely possible cases are roughly static in the Uk right now. Two pieces of evidence support this:
1) the ONS survey which thinks cases are steady or rising slowly.
2) the false positive rate of PCR tests, which is generally held to be about .4%. With 160,000 tests being done, this would explain about 650 of our ~850 cases a day. The number of new cases a day is also rising in proportion with the number of tests - this could suggest that much of the “rise” is explained by false positives.
That could all be wrong - depending on how large the false positive rate really is, but it would be interesting to know if this is being considered at govt level...
It would be very interesting to be a fly on the wall at a meeting of SPI-M right now because I’m not sure what’s going on with UK numbers.
It looks like cases have been steadily rising since the start of July. And yet there’s been no sign of an uptick in hospitalisation or deaths. Even in the US, where initial spread was amongst the youth, deaths started to rise ~3 weeks after cases did.
It’s odd. I think it’s entirely possible cases are roughly static in the Uk right now. Two pieces of evidence support this:
1) the ONS survey which thinks cases are steady or rising slowly.
2) the false positive rate of PCR tests, which is generally held to be about .4%. With 160,000 tests being done, this would explain about 650 of our ~850 cases a day. The number of new cases a day is also rising in proportion with the number of tests - this could suggest that much of the “rise” is explained by false positives.
That could all be wrong - depending on how large the false positive rate really is, but it would be interesting to know if this is being considered at govt level...
I should have added 'though the govt should provide appropriate financial support for closed sectors as needed' but I thought that could be assumed... Silly me :slap:
It’s the same swab that you stick up your nose and to the back of your throat (not in that order!).
So if 160,000 tests is indeed 80,000 people tested the number of false positives would be FPR x 80,000.
There’s no opportunity to check the nose result against the throat one.
I haven’t checked the case vs test numbers in France or Germany in any detail. I’m worried it will disrupt my optimism.
It’s the same swab that you stick up your nose and to the back of your throat (not in that order!).
It’s the same swab that you stick up your nose and to the back of your throat (not in that order!).
Not at the two drive through tests I've had....
Not according to the governments own data
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases
According to this data cases have been rising steadily since around the 6th July. You can also see numbers in hospital, which are flat....
....The false positive rate is unknown, and incredibly hard to measure. the fraction testing positive can never drop below this value, so it must be less than a percent or so.
However it’s suspicious when no matter how many tests you run, the same fraction comes back positive. That’s more or less what’s happening now.
It would be very interesting to be a fly on the wall at a meeting of SPI-M right now because I’m not sure what’s going on with UK numbers.I was interested in this so I asked my local public health expert.
It looks like cases have been steadily rising since the start of July. And yet there’s been no sign of an uptick in hospitalisation or deaths. Even in the US, where initial spread was amongst the youth, deaths started to rise ~3 weeks after cases did.
Usually you’d expect a 2–3 week lag between cases and hospitalisations at most. One explanation is that the case rise starts amongst the young and later spreads to the more vulnerable. That’s plausible, but like I said, in America that argument was also used and the rise in cases showed up as deaths 3 weeks later, like clockwork.
That could all be wrong - depending on how large the false positive rate really is, but it would be interesting to know if this is being considered at govt level...It's certainly been considered by local public health/PHE and false postiives are not an issue. I've already asked too many questions and don't want to follow up on exactly how they've ruled it out as it's the first proper 'weekend' off in a month.
Off now anyway to drop my 16 year old off to a beach party with 150 other kids. They have promised to socially distance and as it’s not a pub it must be fine.
You should only be socialising in groups of up to 2 households (including your support bubble) indoors and outdoors or up to 6 people from different households when outdoors.Source: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/meeting-people-from-outside-your-household-from-4-july
You must not have visitors to your home, or your garden
You must not visit anyone else in their home or their garden
You cannot mix with other households in indoor venues like pubs and restaurants
You can still meet in public outdoor spaces, including outdoor seating or beer gardens, in groups of no more than 6 people, unless the group includes only people from 2 households
You can still meet in public spaces, like parks, where you can still meet up to 5 other people as long as you maintain social distancing
You can still travel to work
You can still go on holiday with your household members, but you must not travel to other parts of the county or country to meet up with other people
You also must not visit a care home, unless it is an exceptional circumstance
I'm sure others have pointed it out ad nauseum, but the rules don't make sense. You can go to the pub beer garden with your family, you can meet them in a park, but you can't meet them in their garden?
If one of the rules doesn't make sense, then it undermines the rest of them. I've (generally) given up on listening to government guidance, sure i'm no expert on COVID, but from my relatively un-informed background, it seems like the guidelines weren't drawn up by them anyway.
That isn't to say i'm meeting up with randoms 24/7, but popping into my parents garden the other day (calderdale), chance of catching anything form them would be very slim, and on the way back, the bars down the road are absolutely heaving with no social distancing whatsoever, but apparently it is more appropriate to meet my parents in their?
I understand the guidelines (laws?) must be flexible, but I honestly can't get over how shit this has been handled regarding communicating regulations with the general public. I'm one of the "vulnerable" types, so it has been steady for me to understand what I can and can't do up until recently, and now I don't trust govt. advice/rules/laws(?) and i'm not overly interested in staying up to date with exactly what I can/can't do as a result.
If I feel like that I can only imagine many others giving even less of a fuck.
Been a while since i've had a good rant.
I read somewhere that the UK has been preparing for this kind of event for over a decade (no reference), with policy reviews in the last 5 years. Imagine if we hadn't!
My youngest is due his GCSE results which I think will be looked at in the same way although neither him or I are actually bothered as he is going on to 6th form to do A levels and has a place regardless.
I took the announcement yesterday as This.
Your going to be given a grade that is based on teachers assessment and algorithms based on the schools and national statistics.
If your not happy with this result you can defer to what you got in your mocks.
If your still not happy with that you can resit in the autumn.
All seems fair to me. Can’t really see what other options they have?
We called this week for the UK government to ensure any exam resits were free to the student, and we welcome confirmation that this will be the case.
However, the rest of the triple lock approach is wrong. The use of mock exams results risks making a mockery of the whole system, given the lack of a standard approach to mock exams and the fact they are not taken by all candidates.
This is a botched attempt at a solution which does not fix the problem created by the classist, racist moderation system, that students’ results will be based on where they live not a true reflection of their own abilities.
We still believe that England should follow Scotland in scrapping moderated grades. With its triple lock policy, all the government has done is lock in inequality.
very much being done on the hoof as it’s pretty unprecedented
Everything is messed up at the minute and very much being done on the hoof as it’s pretty unprecedented
They are not going with mock grades though are they. It’s only if your not happy with the estimated grade your given that you can choose to use your mock result.
I suspect a vast majority will be roughly right but there will be a few outliers. All the media and chat is about politics not the kids results.
Not one kid I have talked to is in the slightest bit bothered. Mainly boys and mainly GCSEs.
Not one kid I have talked to is in the slightest bit bothered. Mainly boys and mainly GCSEs.
Not one kid I have talked to is in the slightest bit bothered. Mainly boys and mainly GCSEs.
Oh great, theres no problem then is there? Come on. Jesus wept.
As others have said, you are absolutely correct that there is no ideal solution, but what people object to is it being freestyled a few days before the results come out (which as mjr has pointed out is the same day every year, so they know its coming). My mocks at school were shambolic. No one took them seriously and I got a D in one mock which I managed to improve to a B. Even proposing it as an alternative is unspeakably dim and I'm yet to see an education professional say its a good idea.
Edit: apologies, this comes across as a bit confrontational which wasn't the intention, but I just find it amazing mocks are being seriously talked about as an appropriate solution by anyone. For the record I think the eventual solution arrived at by the Scots (just go with the teacher grades and have an appeals process) is the best way forward. Just a shame they didn't do it first time.
With a complete mix of old/past papers.
Everything is messed up at the minute and very much being done on the hoof as it’s pretty unprecedented but I don’t see how anything could be done right as there is no right.
I still don’t see how it can be better.Without going into the validity of using mock exams as the basis for an appeal I suspect it's the timing that's caused the issue here. As far as I can remember there's never been a mention of using mock exams within the grading process so it looks an awful lot like they've seen what happened in Scotland and tried to avoid that criticism but not wanted to do a full U-turn and rushed this out instead. If it had been a sound way to approach it then surely they would have raised the prospect earlier to give schools and universities time to prepare. As it is it just looks like a cynical last minute political fudge.
What I would add Gav is that I am really pleased you and your son feel that the system is going to work okay for him and moving to the next stage is assured. What is a worry is those who are going to be disadvantaged because the system isn’t producing a fair result. Tinkering at the last minute isn’t the way to deal with this.
Everything is messed up at the minute and very much being done on the hoof as it’s pretty unprecedented but I don’t see how anything could be done right as there is no right.I still don’t see how it can be better.Without going into the validity of using mock exams as the basis for an appeal I suspect it's the timing that's caused the issue here. As far as I can remember there's never been a mention of using mock exams within the grading process so it looks an awful lot like they've seen what happened in Scotland and tried to avoid that criticism but not wanted to do a full U-turn and rushed this out instead. If it had been a sound way to approach it then surely they would have raised the prospect earlier to give schools and universities time to prepare. As it is it just looks like a cynical last minute political fudge.
I have no idea how the algorithm they are using works but i would have thought it ties in to the average performance of the school over a period of time i.e if a school historically had 50% of pupils getting A-C at A level and of them 5% got 3 A*s they will be looking to align this years grades to that, so if the teachers assessments show 60% A-C and 10% 3 A* then they will mark this down. Likewise in reverse. There is a lot of historical data to make this reasonably accurate.
I have no idea how the algorithm they are using works but i would have thought it ties in to the average performance of the school over a period of time i.e if a school historically had 50% of pupils getting A-C at A level and of them 5% got 3 A*s they will be looking to align this years grades to that, so if the teachers assessments show 60% A-C and 10% 3 A* then they will mark this down. Likewise in reverse. There is a lot of historical data to make this reasonably accurate.
Just on this point; yes, that’s how it works.
So in this circumstance, those who the teachers predicted to just scrape 3 A*'s would be moderated down and only get 2 A*'s and an A or similar.
Isn't there something weird about the way we record deaths related to covid? Ie that if you've ever had it and you die, no matter how much later, it's recorded as covid related and included in the stats. Ould that account for the difference? Can't remember where I read about it though, sorry.
The numbers that involves are tiny proportion of the total covid deaths. If anything in the UK covid deaths are underreported as many who die at home still don't get tested. Estimates are as high as 10% (from a proportion of the 10,000 unaccounted for excess deaths to date).
What I meant by the numbers being real are they are the average current daily official government reported covid deaths (which were always lower than the ONS covid excess deaths) and the average daily official government reported cases from 3 weeks back.
Really!? A quote from that news article.
"Someone who stays in intensive care with Covid-19 for five weeks and dies would not be counted as a coronavirus death, for example."
Anyone here think that is honest?
Not that it matters for anyone serious about counting covid deaths as the ONS numbers have been way more trustworthy for a long time.
The mismatch between how the UK nations count COVID-related deaths was covered in the latest edition of More or Less - https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000llw2 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000llw2) - worth a listen.Really!? A quote from that news article.
"Someone who stays in intensive care with Covid-19 for five weeks and dies would not be counted as a coronavirus death, for example."
Anyone here think that is honest?
Not that it matters for anyone serious about counting covid deaths as the ONS numbers have been way more trustworthy for a long time.
Yep, that’s a glaring fucking error there. Just means other nations are under estimating death toll and now we are too.
I’m sure there was an overestimate/over zealous recording based simply on a positive test. This is a dumb way to moderate for that. “Oh, sorry, you took too long to die, you don’t count”.
Really!? A quote from that news article.
"Someone who stays in intensive care with Covid-19 for five weeks and dies would not be counted as a coronavirus death, for example."
Anyone here think that is honest?
Really!? A quote from that news article.
"Someone who stays in intensive care with Covid-19 for five weeks and dies would not be counted as a coronavirus death, for example."
Anyone here think that is honest?
Of course not, but no more so than someone who had a positive test in April and was hit by a bus last week.
If you want the gold standard for covid impact on death rates then excess deaths is the way to go - and that's been negative for weeks. But you are comparing with other nations, and in England until this revision, no one ever recovered from covid, so you couldn't compare.
Really!? A quote from that news article.
"Someone who stays in intensive care with Covid-19 for five weeks and dies would not be counted as a coronavirus death, for example."
Anyone here think that is honest?
Of course not, but no more so than someone who had a positive test in April and was hit by a bus last week.
If you want the gold standard for covid impact on death rates then excess deaths is the way to go - and that's been negative for weeks. But you are comparing with other nations, and in England until this revision, no one ever recovered from covid, so you couldn't compare.
You mean, no one who subsequently died after a positive covid test “recovered” before death.
This was a pretty stupid system.
There are medical professionals who post here, aren’t there? A death certificate will have a cause of death listed, right?
A medical opinion on the reason for death. Surely this should be the primary criteria for determining who has died of Covid or complications arising from that infection, not an arbitrary four week cut off.
Really!? A quote from that news article.
"Someone who stays in intensive care with Covid-19 for five weeks and dies would not be counted as a coronavirus death, for example."
Anyone here think that is honest?
Of course not, but no more so than someone who had a positive test in April and was hit by a bus last week.
If you want the gold standard for covid impact on death rates then excess deaths is the way to go - and that's been negative for weeks. But you are comparing with other nations, and in England until this revision, no one ever recovered from covid, so you couldn't compare.
Really!? A quote from that news article.
"Someone who stays in intensive care with Covid-19 for five weeks and dies would not be counted as a coronavirus death, for example."
Anyone here think that is honest?
Of course not, but no more so than someone who had a positive test in April and was hit by a bus last week.
If you want the gold standard for covid impact on death rates then excess deaths is the way to go - and that's been negative for weeks. But you are comparing with other nations, and in England until this revision, no one ever recovered from covid, so you couldn't compare.
Except we know pretty quickly those who die from covid related death in hospitals and care homes; it's not rocket science.
This is gerrymandering. The ONS add the slower public death certificate information to hospital and care home deaths and say at least 55,000 covid related deaths so far. Those who die non-covid related deaths after testing positive are a small number (probably in the hundreds) compared to slow covid related deaths (in the thousands that we know of); covid increases mortality in those with cancer and heart disease (our two biggest baseline killers).
Excess deaths are not even bronze standard now we are away from the peak as you don't know what the baseline average would have been. At the peak such variability in the average was noise.
The point of PHE is to firefight as they have lost too many vital resources during austerity and have to do the best they can with the little they have. Their leadership should be working for the health of the nation with honest data, not proping up the government. That's the factor you miss: as well as utility the headline numbers need to be basically honest enough to retain public trust. I didn't realise the other countries of the Union used such flawed headline data until now. Why 4 weeks and not 6 or 10, given intensive care covid deaths are often seen to be drawn out?
Same as those scare-mongering cyclist 120m slipstreams we were warned about.
Yeah, not much too add there to the discussion we had months back. They've detected the virus from air samples and proved it's viability. Big wow. Clearly, either this is not the significant mode of transmission (otherwise we'd be in much deeper shit), or if it is infection must be far more widespread than thought and therefore not as deadly. Same as those scare-mongering cyclist 120m slipstreams we were warned about.
I can see why this sort of lab-based bottom-up research is easy-pickings for scientists but imho the emphasis in this pandemic needs to be top down: track, trace, identify the mechanisms of spread by how they are actually happening, not theoretical potential.
You need both.
I can see why this sort of lab-based bottom-up research is easy-pickings for scientists but imho the emphasis in this pandemic needs to be top down: track, trace, identify the mechanisms of spread by how they are actually happening, not theoretical potential.
Really!? A quote from that news article.
"Someone who stays in intensive care with Covid-19 for five weeks and dies would not be counted as a coronavirus death, for example."
Anyone here think that is honest?
Of course not, but no more so than someone who had a positive test in April and was hit by a bus last week.
If you want the gold standard for covid impact on death rates then excess deaths is the way to go - and that's been negative for weeks. But you are comparing with other nations, and in England until this revision, no one ever recovered from covid, so you couldn't compare.
Except we know pretty quickly those who die from covid related death in hospitals and care homes; it's not rocket science.
This is gerrymandering.
No it doesn't account for the UK anomaly as it only takes about 10% off the covid deaths
Massaging or fiddling is what you do with figures.
Gerrymandering means messing around with constituency boundaries. Massaging or fiddling is what you do with figures.
Sorry to be a pedant. I can’t help it ;)
No it doesn't account for the UK anomaly as it only takes about 10% off the covid deaths
Have you looked at the updated figures? Cases to deaths ratio for the UK look to fit within range of other similar countries:
e,g for 20th Jun / 10th July (based on 7 day average)
Jun-20 Jul-10 Mortality Cases / Deaths
France 468 15 3.2% 31
UK 1173 35 3.0% 34
Italy 289 15 5.2% 19
Sweden 1080 10 0.9% 108
Belgium 91 3 3.3% 30
Spain 334 3 0.9% 111
More recent figures for UK have mortality rate down to approx 2%, cases/deaths rations up to 50
Gerrymandering means messing around with constituency boundaries. Massaging or fiddling is what you do with figures.
Sorry to be a pedant. I can’t help it ;)
Not really pedantic, it's a clear catachresis :)
Anyone else heard anything? TT, teachers here, or any parents?
Anyone else heard anything? TT, teachers here, or any parents?
Word is "its gonna be a long slow clearing until people are sure of appeals etc.." & "This is going to drag out"
As I've retired it will be a week or so before I get news from my old place but we were overfull before clearing.
My niece has had the sense to go to Denmark from September where she has no fees, gets a grant and accomodation is cheaper.
https://studylink.com/countries/denmark/
UCAS shows applicants are up and much to my surprise overseas applicants are up 10% (I guess we will wait and see how many come).Anecdotally, I’d heard from someone at Sheffield uni that the increase in overseas students was due to the US being viewed as a no-go, with people looking for alternatives.
No it doesn't account for the UK anomaly as it only takes about 10% off the covid deaths
Have you looked at the updated figures? Cases to deaths ratio for the UK look to fit within range of other similar countries:
e,g for 20th Jun / 10th July (based on 7 day average)
Jun-20 Jul-10 Mortality Cases / Deaths
France 468 15 3.2% 31
UK 1173 35 3.0% 34
Italy 289 15 5.2% 19
Sweden 1080 10 0.9% 108
Belgium 91 3 3.3% 30
Spain 334 3 0.9% 111
More recent figures for UK have mortality rate down to approx 2%, cases/deaths rations up to 50
I was out yesterday so I didn't get a chance to look at how the changes affected the worldometer data until this morning. My ratios were based on 7 day rolling averages of deaths now and cases three weeks before.
For the UK the ratio using my methodology is now 50 and France 72, so yes the numbers are way more comparable on the new more dishonest UK data.
@IanP, given how this government has handled data and information in this pandemic - I think its absolutely ESSENTIAL to view them through a prism of mistrust!
Gosh, where do I begin...
Double counting of test numbers (and including tests sent out)
Counting individual items of PPE (e.g. a glove) when talking about numbers delivered
Many broken promises (we'll test every person in every care home before the end of June - then July)
Track and Trace - quoting misleading success rates (80%+) when if you look at the contacts traced its <60%
The whole Dominic Cummings Barnard Castle affair
I'm sure I've missed a few and others can fill them in...
I am also glad they are making quick and firm decisions about quarantine (lets overlook Grant Shapps getting the date wrong yesterday eh...).
Ian - we have a government that behaves as if it were in campaign mode. Of a caliber of the vote leave campaign... If they treated the population with the respect we deserve - I would be much happier - and more forgiving.
I know that we have a shit show for a government but I really don't think it helps if from the other side if we allow a prism of distrust and suspicion to define our view of everything that happens.
I dont need lecturing about variability, difficulties or diferences in national death rates. I'm prepared to give leeway and account for time to react. Yet are in mid August, half a year after the government knew enough about C19 and, after a litany of testing failures, the latest ONS studies of positive tests to population infection level estimates indicate we are still missing about 80% of those infected in just the first T. Big contracts went to the likes of Serco. These missing positives was my key point from the beginning of raising this ratio issue.. it has massive implications about our ability to fight new outbreaks, so what government sympathy does anybody fair expect? Show me some other western nations doing this badly on TTT.
Anyone else heard anything? TT, teachers here, or any parents?
Word is "its gonna be a long slow clearing until people are sure of appeals etc.." & "This is going to drag out"
Exactly as I heard just a few moments ago.
I think the new way of representing deaths is possibly 'better' in that its more consistent with other parts of the UK (and possibly other countries).
I am also glad they are making quick and firm decisions about quarantine (lets overlook Grant Shapps getting the date wrong yesterday eh...).
But the f*cking tripe that comes out of the government and its ministers is terrible. Jeez - I was listening the other day to them comparing TTI to New Zealands TTI (and How we did so many hundreds of thousands more contact tracing etc..) which was frankly embarrassing given the handful of cases NZ has had in the last four months compared to the 1000 a day we have here...
Ian - we have a government that behaves as if it were in campaign mode. Of a caliber of the vote leave campaign... If they treated the population with the respect we deserve - I would be much happier - and more forgiving.
I'm afraid they are reaping what they have sown - and they carry on behaving the same!!!
I dont need lecturing about variability, difficulties or diferences in national death rates. I'm prepared to give leeway and account for time to react. Yet are in mid August, half a year after the government knew enough about C19 and, after a litany of testing failures, the latest ONS studies of positive tests to population infection level estimates indicate we are still missing about 80% of those infected in just the first T. Big contracts went to the likes of Serco. These missing positives was my key point from the beginning of raising this ratio issue.. it has massive implications about our ability to fight new outbreaks, so what government sympathy does anybody fair expect? Show me some other western nations doing this badly on TTT.
I'm not looking for sympathy for the government (god forbid) - I was just asking questions about the death figures and how we should measure them accurately. Since we're no longer talking about that (unless you want to discuss the points raised?) I'm actually interested in the ONS analysis re population prevalence / recorded cases and how they compare to other countries in Europe -do you have any links to similar statistical analysis for other countries?
My niece has had the sense to go to Denmark from September where she has no fees, gets a grant and accomodation is cheaper.
https://studylink.com/countries/denmark/
Whereabouts? I'm in Copenhagen now.
You seem to be defending the change. As the mean time to death is reported as anything from 18 to 20 days with a long tail for those on ventilators I'd suggest 35 days would be way more prudent.
The official stats are already about 10,000 less than ONS reported covid deaths so you must be misrepresenting what More or Less actually said if you think they said the government were overcounting (I suspect they are just slightly overcounting current weekly numbers).
The latest ONS figures are always going to be undercounts for a month due to the slow speed of processing death stats from death certificates on home deaths.
The latest ONS figures are always going to be undercounts for a month due to the slow speed of processing death stats from death certificates on home deaths.
"this confirms that the previous methodology was almost certainly over-counting deaths and that over-counting was becoming much more significant as time goes on and the population of older people with a positive coronovirus test increases."
The fact is the government stats consistently undercounted covid deaths during the significant excess death period and for a while after it's only recently the position switched. The total undercount was over 10,000, now it's about 15,000 and nothing in the broadcast indicates any different. So More or Less are just saying its current weekly deaths that were undercounted which was my point about your sloppy comment in quotes above.
On the A level subject I found an analysis of the algorithm.
https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2020/08/a-level-results-2020-how-have-grades-been-calculated/
I just explained why in the edit above, as I guessed that response.
It's my favourite radio show and although I think it gets the emphasis slightly wrong occasionally it really annoys me when people misuse it in arguments. In any case there is no more point arguing about the size of the foot of the elephant in the room. Official UK covid deaths long term should be the much larger ONS number (which they say is still an underestimation due to large numbers who died at home with no proper assessment of covid involvement) and if we are ever to return to normality TTT needs to improve massively and preferably quickly.
Moderately changing the subject - OFQUAL have released the criteria for exam appeals.
And they seem different from what Gavin Williamson promised...
🤦♂️
At the same time as the DfE launches a trust-building campaign to convince parents it’s safe for their kids to return to school. Oh dear...OFQUAL have released the criteria for exam appeals. And they seem different from what Gavin Williamson promised...And, apparently, they have already withdrawn them.
I haven't found any good statistics, but while cases are going up across Europe, are hospital cases rising at all?
Doesn't this show that the additional measures don't work (or, from my N = 1 perspective, are being completely ignored by a large proportion of people)?
I am too lazy to google, how much would you be fined for not wearing a mask? It is €135 if you do not have one on here in Toulouse.
Presently, those who refuse to wear a face covering where it is required face a £100 fine, which can be reduced to £50 if it is paid within 14 days.
But under the new measures, the penalty will double for each subsequent offence, up to a maximum of £3,200.
Doesn't this show that the additional measures don't work (or, from my N = 1 perspective, are being completely ignored by a large proportion of people)?
To make it n=2 I went to my village shop for the first time in a while yesterday, and I was the only one of six shoppers who came and went wearing a mask.
Have not visited a town center weatherspoons type venue but have passed them and they looked OK too.
Are you deliberately going looking?
Are you deliberately going looking?
The worst place I have seen for mask compliance is Skipton. It was abysmal. By contrast Leicester is a haven of compliance. Its almost as if the population of the Dales is dominated by the recalcitrant, contrarian, right wing elderly...
Whats your local farm shop Stubbs? Sounds like an idyllic lifestyle.
The worst place I have seen for mask compliance is Skipton. It was abysmal. By contrast Leicester is a haven of compliance. Its almost as if the population of the Dales is dominated by the recalcitrant, contrarian, right wing elderly...
Whats your local farm shop Stubbs? Sounds like an idyllic lifestyle.
If it's Keelham Farm Shop then, to be fair, it is quite literally to die for.
Have not visited a town center weatherspoons type venue but have passed them and they looked OK too.
Are you deliberately going looking?
No, I just happen to live <1 mile from the highest concentration of infections currently recorded within the UK. Perhaps there's some kind of correlation there.
To turn that around, are you deliberately looking past the numbers (and 'enhanced measures') to support your experience?
EDIT: and yes, I think central Preston (office location) and Nelson (v. close to home) are very different to where you live. The map here should make it pretty clear:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Pendle = Live
Preston = Work (avoiding mostly but not entirely)
Calderdale = Cycle through (Hebden Bridge etc.)
We cannot meet other households inside, but we can meet them in "catering" as long as we follow the guidelines (i.e. maintain 2m distance)....no idea how that really constitutes a "meeting" at all, I suppose you can sit at opposite ends of a big table. Why this is any different from meeting at home I have no idea.
We cannot meet other households inside, but we can meet them in "catering" as long as we follow the guidelines (i.e. maintain 2m distance)....no idea how that really constitutes a "meeting" at all, I suppose you can sit at opposite ends of a big table. Why this is any different from meeting at home I have no idea.
Or the cynic in me says that the want to keep hospitality business getting some income, rather than more cash going to supermarkets on cheap booze for parties.
Why not meet someone at a pub/cafe/restaurant instead of your house, everyone is a winner.
Why does this always get portrayed as a bad thing on here. I think its vitally important we try everything we can to get the countries economy going and support businesses, especially the smaller independents who are really on there arses at the minute.
Why not meet someone at a pub/cafe/restaurant instead of your house, everyone is a winner.
Because in Manchester, it is against the guidelines (though not against the law).
Why not meet someone at a pub/cafe/restaurant instead of your house, everyone is a winner.
Because in Manchester, it is against the guidelines (though not against the law).
Except it is allowed. If you sit at separate tables. That could be c.1m apart...
It is a mess....
Can anyone suggest what the guidance should say?
Crazy talk Will.
the inference being that people behave better WRT social distancing in public compared to private.
If the answer is the economy is on its knees and thus any transmission risk at all has to come with an economic benefit
I'd take a guess that the socialising restrictions will be dropped around the 11/9 rather than acknowledging they're not really working (/2P).
"Groups of more than 6 to be banned (inside and outside)"
Actually - they are ALREADY banned - its just that fines can only be dished out to groups of more than 30... everyone (including parts of my family much to my surprise) seems to think up to 30 is fine at the moment... ffs..
The mixed messaging from the Govt this morning is terrible..... (Ali k's post arrived at the same time..)
"Groups of more than 6 to be banned (inside and outside)"
Actually - they are ALREADY banned - its just that fines can only be dished out to groups of more than 30... everyone (including parts of my family much to my surprise) seems to think up to 30 is fine at the moment... ffs..
You should:
only socialise indoors with members of up to 2 households ‒ this includes when dining out or going to the pub
socialise outdoors in a group of up to 6 people from different households or up to 2 households (anyone in your support bubble counts as one household)
I think people were following the guidance generally, then a certain government advisor (and the entire cabinet in backing him up) basically argued that following guidance is for schmucks and you're fine as long as nobody can prove you broke the law. Guess what? Everyone now ignores guidance."Groups of more than 6 to be banned (inside and outside)"
Actually - they are ALREADY banned - its just that fines can only be dished out to groups of more than 30... everyone (including parts of my family much to my surprise) seems to think up to 30 is fine at the moment... ffs..
30 is the law, 6 is the guidance, up until Monday, right? The reason they can't fine you is that it's discouraged but legal.
I think this may be indicative of the weight people put on guidance and perhaps a shift from people doing things because they think they should to people doing things that the law requires - going the extra mile versus minimum compliance...
Cue a bloke in hi-viz waving everyone through. I thought this was a one-off as it was late at night, but apparently everyone else had the same.
The rhetoric on 'young people need to stop gathering' alongside 'go to work, take public transport and make sure you go to Pret at lunchtime' is a disgrace. This government is only interested in the public's social activity lining the pockets of shareholders. Anything else is considered surplus to economic requirements.
What utter bollocks. Work, public transport, pret etc and also climbing walls, gyms, pubs etc. Are all things that can be managed and controlled. Peoples houses are not ( which is a good thing) and it appears that many people can’t be trusted to follow the rules.
Are climbing walls open just to line shareholders pockets. No.
The economy is important whether you like it or not as it pays for everything. It therefore comes higher up the list than family gatherings.
I think it’s bizarre in that if they’re using an automated system to text people then to contact everyone would be simpler than picking people at random.
We're yet to see any actual evidence that family gatherings are causing the spike; just the governments word. They know it to be true but are avoiding releasing the evidence proving it; quelle surprise. Forgive me for not being convinced.
You have repeatedly said on these forums that all the pubs and cafes you have visited have been managed and controlled, which is convenient as it neatly fits with your pro-business view. Thats obviously good if thats the case, and I have been to a good number which have good systems, but I've also been to a good number which haven't had systems full stop, never mind good ones. Your contention that 60 people inside a pub is managed but 7 people in a house isn't doesn't stand up to me I'm afraid. I'm perfectly willing to admit that my worldview does not prioritise business and their interests, so perhaps thats where the difference lies.
The health secretary blamed the rise 'partly due to socialising by people in their 20s and 30s' and the virus spreading 'significantly' at a number of pubs, discovered by contact tracing.
It’s your assumption that the government makes its decision based on shareholder pressure that got my goat. A vast majority of businesses are not tax dodging behemoths and are just wanting to survive this.
The fact there is no extended furlough scheme in place yet for sectors which still aren't open is mental; other countries do it so there is no reason why we can't. Its this which leads me to conclude that the government is making decisions on an ideological 'economy first and fuck everything else' basis rather than what is actually best for the country and the people.
Most of the arguments around the issue of policy/guidance/law seem to me to involve so much political posturing by people with agendas. I don't have strong opinions on any of the above, except that I have a vague fuzzy half-formed view that the current hazard from damage to the economy currently seems to be a greater short, medium and long term risk to the public than the current risk to the public of suffering a bad outcome from covid.
My thinking is along the lines of what is the current likelihood of:
a. me catching covid
b. me dying/becoming seriously ill from covid
c. me spreading covid to someone I love
d. them dying/becoming seriously ill from covid
e. me spreading covid to someone else
f. them dying/becoming seriously ill from covid
...
a. apparently currently very low.. somewhere around 1:25,000 population-wide according to David Spiegelhalter today. compare that to other serious health issues - cancer, heart attack, stroke, diabetes - and I think I'm correct in saying that in many cases the risk is comparable or less.
b. less than 3% (assuming becoming one of the currently 1-in-25,000 who catches covid)
c. less than 'a'
therefore d, e and f should be less than 'a' but difficult to say for higher-risk people in old age, especially over 80?
But I'd be interested in hearing others' opinions on the risk figures as I'm likely to be incorrect.
I suppose first I'd need to compare with what are the current odds, in a world without Covid, of death from flying? A quick google reveals the approximate odds of being in a plane crash are 1 in 54 million. I'm assuming 'death from flying' = plane crash.. I'm assuming you don't die of eating the chicken sandwich or peanut allergy..
My thinking is along the lines of what is the current likelihood of:
a. me catching covid
b. me dying/becoming seriously ill from covid
c. me spreading covid to someone I love
d. them dying/becoming seriously ill from covid
e. me spreading covid to someone else
f. them dying/becoming seriously ill from covid
What do you class as meet? Pass in the street, go to the same bar but sit outside, share a bus with, shake hands or give a great big snog.
Unless it’s the 1st I have not been in contact with 250 people in the last six months
Quote from: tomtom link=topic=30489.msg616180#msg616180 date=1599650470
So 1 in 250 to 500 people you meet age 15-40 are likely to have it.
[/quote
What do you class as meet? Pass in the street, go to the same bar but sit outside, share a bus with, shake hands or give a great big snog.
Unless it’s the 1st I have not been in contact with 250 people in the last six months
Thats the unknown isnt it...
Does being in the same pub/restaraunt/wall for 1-2 hours as someone with it count... or not...? Does being stood behind someone coughing at the supermarket que count more than the above..
Anyway - its clearly spreading - so 'in general' as a population we are meeting up/socialising (facilitating its spread) more than we can if we want to stop its spread...
I can see how testing is being over run as i know a few people who have got it just to see what the result was, none had any symptoms. One of them has got the test 3 times without any need, shes a proper hypochondriac.
Surely without people who have no symptoms getting tested we stand no chance of working out the extent of asymptomatic transmission?
It’s impossible to test everyone so your idea is equally as flawed unless we trace every single person who has had contact with a positive testee, which in itself is impossible unless we all stay at home, which is impossible as we will all go mad and the economy will totally disintegrate.
So what do we suggest we do.
It’s impossible to test everyone so your idea is equally as flawed unless we trace every single person who has had contact with a positive testee, which in itself is impossible unless we all stay at home, which is impossible as we will all go mad and the economy will totally disintegrate.
So what do we suggest we do.
People seem pretty down on our testing but according to 'more or less' today the UK is doing more tests (per head) than any other European country.
Statista site seems to back that up, 4th highest in the world? https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104645/covid19-testing-rate-select-countries-worldwide/
Don't know whether the UK figures are bullshit, and really each nostril and throat swab is being counted as 'a test'. But if not, isn't the amount of testing currently being done something to be celebrated, or at least acknowledged, especially having come from a rather shit position to now overtaking nearly everyone?
We appear to be doing as much testing as anywhere else according to the figures you see and are performing about the same as most similar sized European countries yet all you here is how shit we are. Who should we be more like?
We appear to be doing as much testing as anywhere else according to the figures you see and are performing about the same as most similar sized European countries yet all you here is how shit we are. Who should we be more like?
Any country that doesn’t blatantly lie about its testing figures.
I find it difficult to take you seriously if you use evidence from June 2nd to support your insistence that testing figures for September 9th are lies. In the context of Covid-19 early June is almost a different lifetime.
I'm not saying you're wrong, you may well be correct. But if you're correct then show me the evidence that proves it, rather than just saying it must be so.
I find it difficult to take you seriously if you use evidence from June 2nd to support your insistence that testing figures for September 9th are lies. In the context of Covid-19 early June is almost a different lifetime.
I'm not saying you're wrong, you may well be correct. But if you're correct then show me the evidence that proves it, rather than just saying it must be so.
My point was that trust has gone after a farrago of devious and misleading use of statistics. Obvious enough, I should have thought.
If you have strong evidence that our government now communicates with accuracy and integrity, rather than its previously misleading bad faith, I'd be relieved to see it.
Any country that doesn’t blatantly lie about its testing figures.
I find it difficult to take you seriously if you use evidence from June 2nd to support your insistence that testing figures for September 9th are lies. In the context of Covid-19 early June is almost a different lifetime.
I'm not saying you're wrong, you may well be correct. But if you're correct then show me the evidence that proves it, rather than just saying it must be so.
My point was that trust has gone after a farrago of devious and misleading use of statistics. Obvious enough, I should have thought.
Err.. right.....
So you don't think the UK's testing figures are blatant lies then. Despite saying that they were.
In the meantime in Sweden a public health director says "we were right"... Pride before a fall or is he right? Given the theories that a large portion of the population has resistance from exposure to other coronaviruses and the cluster spreading nature of infection there's models that show herd immunity working at around 20% penetration. This might be backed up IRL by examples such as Manaus in Brasil where after overwhelming health care the virus apparently retreated without lockdowns or other containment.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/were-vindicated-say-swedes-after-coronavirus-cases-hit-new-low-lt3cmlhtg?shareToken=902d0ec617bc109ac1c4c3b358fb4e63
Sweden has registered its lowest rate of positive coronavirus tests yet even after its testing regime was expanded to record levels in what one health official said was a vindication of its relatively non-intrusive Covid-19 strategy.
In the meantime in Sweden a public health director says "we were right"... Pride before a fall or is he right? Given the theories that a large portion of the population has resistance from exposure to other coronaviruses and the cluster spreading nature of infection there's models that show herd immunity working at around 20% penetration. This might be backed up IRL by examples such as Manaus in Brasil where after overwhelming health care the virus apparently retreated without lockdowns or other containment.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/were-vindicated-say-swedes-after-coronavirus-cases-hit-new-low-lt3cmlhtg?shareToken=902d0ec617bc109ac1c4c3b358fb4e63
20% is too low for herd immunity. That's if most of the 20% are immune (people are only clearly known to have caught the virus twice as they were in the category of having caught different genetic strains). I think the main situation in Sweden is the people are on the whole way more sensible than in most of Europe: they understand the importance of social distancing and act on that.
A reminder of the horror in Manaus, a city with a very young average population (that given covid deaths were often not registered as such may have met herd immunity levels)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/30/brazil-manaus-coronavirus-mass-graves
The Uk right-wing press has been desperately pushing the Swedish example from the start. Would be interesting to hear from someone who knows Sweden as to which of these is closer to the truth?
20% is too low for herd immunity.
20% is too low for herd immunity.
Given around half of the population may have resistance via T cells it doesn't actually seem implausible to me?
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200716-the-people-with-hidden-protection-from-covid-19
Yes we are, but it was always going to go that way, unless you can do a New Zealand and lock your country up away from the rest of the world forever....
I think I read that the Aberdeen outbreak came from a French worker passing through on his way offshore?
quote="The Atlantic"]This policy was folly for Sweden, which is nowhere near herd immunity, had one of the world’s highest COVID-19 death rates, and has a regretful state epidemiologist. [/quote]Quote from: The TimesSweden has registered its lowest rate of positive coronavirus tests yet even after its testing regime was expanded to record levels in what one health official said was a vindication of its relatively non-intrusive Covid-19 strategy.
Economy hit, not as badly as elsewhere, but hard to be sure yet.
Or promise 'moon shot' solutions like we've had this afternoon.
I don’t think anyone is saying they did great but they did just as bad as everyone without anywhere near the disruption to normal life that most other countries have had or are having.
Worth looking at why isn’t it.
I haven't seen the argument that Sweden has been "proved" right cropping up since the spring.(typo corrected, I think?)
Or promise 'moon shot' solutions like we've had this afternoon.
I’m not sure I understand the practicalities of this ‘moon shot’ testing regime.
When there’s already an issue with getting people to self-isolate if they test positive under the TTI system and there’s so many disincentives to do so then why would anyone suddenly start with the ‘moon shot’ system?
The statisticians are all banging their heads against the wallDavid Speigelhalter (Source = anywhere you look on the internet).
“They keep saying it’s world-leading,” he said. “It’s world-leadingly bad, is what it is. They talk about this huge capacity … well, the capacity is obviously in Inverness. There’s a serious bottleneck in the laboratory, and that determines the capacity, so it’s a lot less than it’s claimed. So how are they going to fix that?”David Davies
The more convincing argument for Moonshot failing on the launchpad (as picked up by MrJA above) is that apparently only 20% of people told to isolate/quarantine are obeying this completely.The only way I can see this being successful is to get rates down to really low levels and then somehow incentivise people to get tested (lottery system?) and/or make it almost attractive to test positive and have to isolate (stay in a luxury hotel/retreat for a week or two on full pay?). Otherwise people will just ignore it if it interferes with life or they lose pay.
We might need Track Trace Isolate and ENFORCE for lift off.
The false positive is an easy fix though - just take another test...
The false positive is an easy fix though - just take another test...
As we won’t know which positives are false you are saying every positive result will require a retest?
*govt did something right claxon* - I think the 6 rule is a good idea right now - and glad they’ve done it. Could have been before this weekend (now we have party weekend etc..) but at least it’s a fairly clear rule.
/quote]
Is it clear though? It's always been six OR two households but different rules inside and out. Now it's six from only two households, which presents a bit of a problem for a couple of families wanting to meet up at the park, etc.
Surely more emphasis on the two household part of the rule would be better with a maximum number of adults stated thereafter.
Ah right, relying on common sense.
Bit too soon for schools effect to kick in I’d have thought.I dunno. There's been at least five outbreaks in Sheffield schools already. Including two +ve kids in my son's class. So he's back home for two week's isolation after one week in class (and has come down with heavy cold symptoms).
Now it's six from only two householdsI thought it was six from unlimited households?
How many senior lab managers are also academics returning to work at unis now?
It’s so incompetent it’s almost deliberate. Everyone said there would be increased need when the schools went back - so... how come no capacity was created for now. Is Dido Harding really THAT shit at her job?
@oldmanmatt - the test booking in Devon is bizarre, I needed to get our youngest tested after he threw a temperature on Monday as I've picked up my first offshore work since June and need a clean bill of health. Monday afternoon/evening there were no tests bookable anywhere. Mid-morning on Tuesday I had a choice of Exeter, Tiverton or Taunton with each having 30+ slots available in the next few days. I don't know if we were just lucky with checking bang on the time the slots were released (this was about 11:30) or what...Apparently to do with the way tests are released to all local test centres. My sister (nurse in Stockport) had to get a test last week. Offered Inverness and Aberdeen as nearest options. No priority testing for NHS staff as I understand it, but it was suggested she try again at a particular time and, lo and behold, tests in Ashton. I’ll be trying the same knowledge as we’re quarantined until we can get a test - wife’s a GP and can’t go to work until we get tested.
It was advised to be 6 - now it’s THE LAW.. I believe.Unless you are going shooting then more than 6 is ok.
Not that THE LAW is something our government plans to abide by..
Unless you are going shooting then more than 6 is ok.
Unless you are going shooting then more than 6 is ok.
Or climbing, to be fair -- as long as it's "organised":
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do/coronavirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do#visiting-public-places-and-taking-part-in-activities
The list of "organised sport or licensed outdoor physical activity that you can do in groups of more than six" is at 3.16.
And includes climbing...
Or climbing, to be fair -- as long as it's "organised":
We initially suspended our events, recreation programmes, club rides and coach-led activities in these areas (parts of Blackburn, Oldham and Pendle), however after discussions with colleagues in Government and the three respective councils this week, we are pleased to say that British Cycling-sanctioned activities are now permitted to resume. However, you should continue to follow all other applicable Government guidance on social distancing and group size.
Please note that in the areas with additional restrictions, informal cycling activity with people from outside your household or support bubble is not permitted. More information on this can be found here.
So, in Pendle, the rule of zero continues unless you go on a club ride!?
Having just spent the morning trying to book tests, I think half the problem is the website and its ability to deal with the demand. 12-15 times through the process, all bar one it has said the website is busy and gone no further. On one occasion, I got offered a slot in Liverpool (from Sheffield) or a walk through test locally and then the website crashed.
I thought I saw some BMC guidance that allowed for climbing clubs to continue arranging meets for larger groups up to 30 too.
Here it is:
https://www.thebmc.co.uk/covid19-restarting-club-meets
I'd be interested to know what the police would say if they turned up to a busy bouldering crag. Is it mingling even if you've arrived on your own and don't know the other people there? Bit of a minefield but I'd like to think we'd be a long way down their list of people/places to go after.
Meanwhile - it appears you can 'cheat' the system and that as long as you get the QR code for a test it can be used at any centre...
/
Does make you wonder why the website directs people to test centres hundreds of miles away then, if booking a test is mainly about having a lab processing slot? Presumably another 'mutant algorithm' trying to get the tests distributed geographically according to some quotas it's been given.Meanwhile - it appears you can 'cheat' the system and that as long as you get the QR code for a test it can be used at any centre...
/
This was what they told me at the Exeter test centre, the QR code was the important thing to show you have a lab processing slot. Once you have one of those it apparently doesn't matter where you get the test done as the test is matched up with the lab slot and sent off accordingly. Certainly down here the test centres aren't near capacity as the choke point is somewhere else in the system.
Does this surprise anyone?
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/kids-day-care-spread-covid-19-parents-teachers-cdc-says-n1239887?fbclid=IwAR2vUp2e5xEHmISb8HeQOkAwtaI6l8BB1cs03v5Goy5Q2BccHI2f66ghyis (https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/kids-day-care-spread-covid-19-parents-teachers-cdc-says-n1239887?fbclid=IwAR2vUp2e5xEHmISb8HeQOkAwtaI6l8BB1cs03v5Goy5Q2BccHI2f66ghyis)
Does make you wonder why the website directs people to test centres hundreds of miles away then, if booking a test is mainly about having a lab processing slot? Presumably another 'mutant algorithm' trying to get the tests distributed geographically according to some quotas it's been given.
*I suspect that doesnt mean one swab does 30 kids :D
*I suspect that doesnt mean one swab does 30 kids :D
Nah, 30 swabs for 30 kids all pooled then processed together. This would mean the testers intially only have 1 reaction to process to detect covid, rather than 30. In theory, the reaction they use to detect covid is so sensitive that a single intact RNA molecule from the virus could be detected. Only concern would be false negatives which could easy be mitigated.
(I'm a molecular biologist, partner worked at one of the testing centres for a bit during lockdown)
So completely and utterly possible then!
Good grief! (aimed at UKGovt)
I really don’t understand what people are allowed to do or not do now... I even followed a couple of news website QA pages and it still didn’t completely make sense. Doesn’t help that Manchester seems to have different rules from all the other places locked down.
I think most people here are making it up... / using (gulp) common sense.
Possible, yes absolutely. But say one comes back positive, you have to isolate everyone tested and associated with the group until you can go back through and retest everyone individually. For a class or year group at a school, this could mean absolutely loads of people are isolating. Probably unnecessarily.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-two-week-national-lockdown-in-october-proposed-by-top-scientists-report-12074645
Be most unhappy if it his happens over school holidays; kids in close contact all day every day, as soon as there is a break in this they want to impose a lockdown?
Even if you have to stay and home and don't spend any money that would keep the economy going?
Despite my testing carping - we are far more informed now about its spread across the population and country now than we were in March. I really hope this means we can manage Wave2.0 better than the last time.
I think its just shit system design... whilst this might help people cheat the system in the short term - it makes it look more mickey mouse than heath robinson... Give yourselves a round of applause Deloitte / Serco / Dido.
A small point of interest; the Cheltenham festival was mentioned a lot as a failure in March that increased transmission. I've seen it said in several places that the government was lobbied by a prominent member of the Jockey club to keep it running, as they were considering calling it off. The prominent figure in question with strong connections in government was Dido Harding.
A small point of interest; the Cheltenham festival was mentioned a lot as a failure in March that increased transmission. I've seen it said in several places that the government was lobbied by a prominent member of the Jockey club to keep it running, as they were considering calling it off. The prominent figure in question with strong connections in government was Dido Harding.It’s not a small point Toby, it strikes to the heart of the corruption flourishing under this administration.
....
Given its track record, what will this administration do once unrestrained by EU state aid laws in directing public money to private business?
I had missed that she was also going to be heading up the national institutefor health protection
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-creates-new-national-institute-for-health-protection
As she sits in the back benches and works and votes for the gov, that’s a massive conflict of interest for heading a public, apolitical body.
Plus she is obviously chosen for her compliance with policy (ie privatisation).
Anyone over the age of 8 who could not foresee that tourists returning from abroad, massively increased attendance at workplaces and the resumption of school for 12milliion children would cause a big increase in testing demand is unfit for the role.
Had a test yesterday and the person greeting you to check barcodes, ID, tell you where to go etc was there with no mask, head basically in the car in front with windows fully down having a long chat and passing things in/out. :o
We covered our faces and spoke through the glass to him.
If there was one place I'd want to work under the strictest conditions covered in PPE it would be a testing centre FFS.
Our MP got back to me very quickly and has raised it with the director of public health to give them a bollocking. Barrow testing center staff - the new superspreaders?
Newport and Bridgend are the main sections affected, however a colleague has just told me he read somewhere it was OK to drive through on the m4. Can't find it now though.
Newport and Bridgend are the main sections affected, however a colleague has just told me he read somewhere it was OK to drive through on the m4. Can't find it now though.
Newport and Bridgend are the main sections affected, however a colleague has just told me he read somewhere it was OK to drive through on the m4. Can't find it now though.
Handy post from Elfyn on UKC https://www.ukclimbing.com/forums/destinations/can_we_climb_in_wales_now-725317?v=1#x9293235 which suggests travel through areas is fine. Presumably based on some official guidance...
Had my hair cut today and had a good long chat to the Barber (small shop - his). He was scathing of the recent clampdown. He suggested most of the local shipowners wanted a short total lockdown right now (the “circuit-breaker”) to try and nip this in the bud - rather than a 15 week lockdown like before that he thought was inevitable in a few weeks time otherwise.
Interesting POV. And hard to disagree with him....
Sorry - thats a bit of a rant but NO-ONE in HE is happy with what is happening. And we have lovely indiciduals like the VC of Sussex trying to independently classify his lecturing staff as Key workers so they have to go in etc..
Hundreds of pupils pile out of the secondary school opposite our house each day, wrestling with one another, no masks, no social distance etc.
And she asked why the university told them to move into the halls when they could have followed their online courses from home. .
"We were told to come to university halls - 48 people from across the country in one building- it was inevitable that it was going to spread," she said.
"We are getting punished for just living here but we were told to come.
"There's no reason for us to be here because everything is online."
To answer on HE - I think nearly all Universities could have taught most (90-95%) of things remotely. No need for students to come in at all. BUT - this would be seen as terrible value at 9K fees PA - completely understandably...
But her mental health is definitely suffering somewhat. I think it is the uncertainty more than anything, as well as separation from me and her grandparents.
Synchronous delivery (via teams/zoom) is for me a largely soulless experience.
Today is hard.
I don’t know if the audience side really understands how dire the situation is for millions of hard-working professionals.
Broadway is closed until 2021, 6 West End venues THINK they can open at the moment. Cirque du Soleil is filing for bankruptcy and cut 3500+ jobs. Feld Entertainment laid off 90% of its workforce permanently. Live Nation had to lay off a significant amount of employees. Cruise ship entertainers are out of work.
Theme park productions have no idea when they will be recalled. There are no concerts, festivals or touring productions scheduled until 2021 and if they don’t happen next year, they may never happen again. No Jazz Fest, no Coachella, no Bonnaroo, no EDC, no Glastonbury, no Download, no ROLLING STONES FINAL TOUR(S), no ballet, no opera....all gone.
It’s being predicted that 90% of independent music venues may close, the longer this continues. No more 1st Ave, Whiskey-a-GoGo, no more Tipitina’s, no more Red Rocks, no more CroBar, all gone. Entertainment Management, Publicity, Live events coordinator, Performing arts organizations of all kinds- choirs, theatres, orchestras, dance companies- all are trying to figure out on a daily basis how to keep going and employ anyone they can in the field.
More than 12,000,000 people work in entertainment production, we are not insignificant and this industry cannot reopen until mass gatherings can happen again. This doesn’t include the additional layoff of venue management and bar staff, security and thousands of vendors. Also, we can’t forget about the hundreds of thousands of performers and entertainers that make these careers possible, without them, there is no show.
So understand that your performer friends are helplessly watching our industry crumble before our eyes because the government are growing us under the bus. For some there is no financial support, or if there is, it simply isn't enough to even cover the basics & people are falling through the cracks.
This IS personal for us, our entire livelihood is dependent on social gathering and we will not accept being labeled “nonessential”.
Music and art are critical to a cheerful, balanced society.
Everyone’s career and the whole industry is indefinitely on hold.
Gratefully copied. Feel free to do the same.
#SaveOurStages #SaveTheArts #artseducationmatters #WeMakeEvents
I don’t know if the numbers are UK specific
More than 12,000,000 people work in entertainment production,
Except our lad is loving his first two weeks at reception... :)
I don’t know if the numbers are UK specificMore than 12,000,000 people work in entertainment production,
Defo not a UK number unless >1/3 of the workforce is in entertainment production...
This week has been hard for me CV19 Mental health wise - as its now pretty clear that things are (a) going to get alot worse and (b) there's no reprieve until spring.
Of course I didnt think it would be fine by Xmas etc.. and expected a second wave - but did not expect it to be so soon - and quite dramatic (as it seems to be at the moment). And its dark before 7pm now!
Not alot of happy stuff around at the moment.... Except our lad is loving his first two weeks at reception... :)
Except our lad is loving his first two weeks at reception... :)
Well, that's a big plus.
This week has been hard for me CV19 Mental health wise - as its now pretty clear that things are (a) going to get alot worse and (b) there's no reprieve until spring.Totally get this and was in a very similar place mid summer, getting dragged down by all the negativity and bleakness of it all. It's very difficult times for us all, hope things pick up for you and you're getting time to go do whatever keeps you sane.
Of course I didnt think it would be fine by Xmas etc.. and expected a second wave - but did not expect it to be so soon - and quite dramatic (as it seems to be at the moment). And its dark before 7pm now!
Not alot of happy stuff around at the moment.... Except our lad is loving his first two weeks at reception... :)
it’s strangely quiet being in the house when he’s normally there all the time (even if I’m working..).
it’s strangely quiet being in the house when he’s normally there all the time (even if I’m working..).
It's been very strange of everyone in one way or another. My work sent us home a few days before schools closed, so there were 4 of us in the house all day every day until schools returned, not I feel the need to have a radio on most of the day when the kids are at school.
Yup. My work Twitter account is full of stories like this. Through the guardian article does quote a PhD student doing additional teaching (for which they are getting paid above their bursary - usually) so it’s a bit naughty possibly.
One of my colleagues has to teach in a lab that he has been assured has been deep cleaned etc... the hair he taped over the door in March when we all had to leave is still in place. That story is indicative of the mistrust around senior management too...
Most of our students have been great. And tbh they’ll see more of me on a computer screen than they will in person this year... not sure who is happier about that 😂😂
Yup. My work Twitter account is full of stories like this. Through the guardian article does quote a PhD student doing additional teaching (for which they are getting paid above their bursary - usually) so it’s a bit naughty possibly.
One of my colleagues has to teach in a lab that he has been assured has been deep cleaned etc... the hair he taped over the door in March when we all had to leave is still in place. That story is indicative of the mistrust around senior management too...
Most of our students have been great. And tbh they’ll see more of me on a computer screen than they will in person this year... not sure who is happier about that 😂😂
Thanks Lagers. I’ll start with the hot shot Lego City (tm) cop - Duke Detain.
OMM. Suspect the genie is out of the bottle etc.. and if they close Universities and send everyone back - it’d be sending the masses back to the four corners of the UK riddled with the virus (etc...). An avoidable situation.
Pardon my odd way of thinking (it’s late for me) but is this any different from letting a meat processing factory carry on running after an outbreak there? (Sausage machine metaphor unintended...)
Pardon my odd way of thinking (it’s late for me) but is this any different from letting a meat processing factory carry on running after an outbreak there? (Sausage machine metaphor unintended...)
Thanks Lagers. I’ll start with the hot shot Lego City (tm) cop - Duke Detain.
OMM. Suspect the genie is out of the bottle etc.. and if they close Universities and send everyone back - it’d be sending the masses back to the four corners of the UK riddled with the virus (etc...). An avoidable situation.
Pardon my odd way of thinking (it’s late for me) but is this any different from letting a meat processing factory carry on running after an outbreak there? (Sausage machine metaphor unintended...)
I’m sorry, are we actually contemplating logic or reasoning being applied?
Nah, be serious.
I mean, we have a circus clown as PM.
Stay alert. Protect cake. Save loaves.
QuoteStay alert. Protect cake. Save loaves.
Priceless. More coherent than the HM Gov one.😀
This week has been hard for me CV19 Mental health wise - as its now pretty clear that things are (a) going to get alot worse and (b) there's no reprieve until spring.
I don't know if anyone else watches the great British bake off, but matt lucas doing a Boris piss take at the start of episode 1 was priceless.
I don't know if anyone else watches the great British bake off, but matt lucas doing a Boris piss take at the start of episode 1 was priceless.
Did you know Marc Elliot of said Bake off was a reasonable climber back in the day. I worked with him at Outside in the early 90s.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/inspirational-bake-star-marc-carried-22684984
sorry - off topic and sorry for the cheesy mirror article - but it has good pics.
News from NL on long term lung damage
"Of the 1,200 Covid-19 patients who so far recovered after admission to intensive care, "almost 100 percent went home with residual damage", he said to AD. And about half of the 6 thousand people who were hospitalized, but did not need intensive care, will have symptoms for years to come. "
https://nltimes.nl/2020/05/28/thousands-dutch-covid-19-patients-likely-permanent-lung-damage-doctor-says
I don't know if anyone else watches the great British bake off, but matt lucas doing a Boris piss take at the start of episode 1 was priceless.
Did you know Marc Elliot of said Bake off was a reasonable climber back in the day. I worked with him at Outside in the early 90s.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/inspirational-bake-star-marc-carried-22684984
sorry - off topic and sorry for the cheesy mirror article - but it has good pics.
That's awesome, always loved that pic of him on Nosferatu from the BMC guide, never thought I'd be seeing it in the Mirror!
I know nuts isn’t it!
Reminds me of the closing phrase on this Harry Enfield sketch :D
https://youtu.be/t-jw5GYqMhM
One article talked about a 12hr round trip to see Antarctica whilst each passenger was responsible for melting 6sqm of the ice they were going to see (or something like that...)
First personal experience of the testing scheme for me.
My youngest has been off with tonsillitis but temp was through the roof yesterday and won’t be allowed back to school for two weeks without all clear so had to book a test.
Logged on at 9.30pm last night and was given test options from 8am this morning. Booked him and me for 10 am
30 miles down the A1, but that’s my fault for living in the sticks.
10 mins in the drive through all done and back home. The test centre was pretty much deserted, maybe 4-5 cars max but space for 30-40. 10 drive through bays in operation.
This is a test centre in Newcastle, probably the biggest hotspot in the uk.
And anyone who describes the actual test as more than slightly uncomfortable needs a long hard look at themselves.
Pretty sure we will be negative but he wouldn’t be allowed back at school without the test being done and we have other family reasons for me getting it done.
How come you have had 8? I guess work related.Taking part in a study.
f. where neither c, d, or e can be shown, then it’s acceptable to blame the public, as long as it’s made clear we’re talking about ‘idiots’. Not nice people like us.
f. where neither c, d, or e can be shown, then it’s acceptable to blame the public, as long as it’s made clear we’re talking about ‘idiots’. Not nice people like us.
You forgot g. Where f. comes into effect, it's still the fault of Boris and the Tories because Thatcher made everyone selfish and not considerate of other people.
Apparently (linked tweet quotes the daily mail - so pinch of salt etc..) the reason why there was an issue with updating UK CV19 cases with the correct number - and some were missing (and didnt go to track and trace..) was because the data is kept on Excel spreadsheets - and the number of columns had exceeded the maximum.
Excel columns end at 16,384 aka “XFD”.
https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1313046638915706880?s=20
Where is SlackLine when you need him :)
Apparently they were using the cases in the columns instead of the rows though, if so, my sympathy is limited.
I'm surprised Sheffield hasn't had a local lockdown imposed yet. For a while now it's had steeply rising cases and the 2nd highest case rate of any area not under local lockdown (Nottingham has the highest), higher on both metrics than many of the locked down areas. Seems inevitable and imminent to me, but then I thought that this time last week :shrug:.
PS - My son having completed two weeks isolation after two classmates tested positive, is now back at home for a second two weeks after returning to school for one week and another kid in the class testing positive :slap: :wall: :wall:.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/06/covid-cases-and-deaths-today-coronavirus-uk-map
There's also a reported outbreak at one of the Sheffield universities, 474 cases as of yesterday.
Red alert (level three) – There would be a ban on social contact with anyone not in your household, pubs, restaurants and leisure businesses would be asked to close once again, and amateur sports (such as bowling, or 5-a-side football) would also be banned. Places of worship would remain open, however.
Largely restricted to the Central Belt.Mine too, we're supposed to be staying on Skye for the week. :'(
I'm worried about the extent of the "Circuit Breaker" announcement at lunchtime, any half term plans we have may be scuppered.
This is a map showing number of positive cases in a week by Middle Layer Super Output Areas (MSOA). MSOAs are a standard statistical geography of approximately 7,200 people. Some MSOAs have the same name as local electoral wards and figures within this map should not be compared with ward data you may see published elsewhere
I think you're right Paul regards awaiting the traffic light system. The Sheffield Star is speculating that we may go straight onto tier three lockdown, meaning:QuoteRed alert (level three) – There would be a ban on social contact with anyone not in your household, pubs, restaurants and leisure businesses would be asked to close once again, and amateur sports (such as bowling, or 5-a-side football) would also be banned. Places of worship would remain open, however.
Largely restricted to the Central Belt.Mine too, we're supposed to be staying on Skye for the week. :'(
I'm worried about the extent of the "Circuit Breaker" announcement at lunchtime, any half term plans we have may be scuppered.
If the authorities are aware that the cases are generally confined to the student accommodation which is already, in effect, in the strictest state of lockdown then they might have decided that life for the general public can go on as (new) normal?
If the authorities are aware that the cases are generally confined to the student accommodation which is already, in effect, in the strictest state of lockdown then they might have decided that life for the general public can go on as (new) normal?I'm surprised that one of the superforecasters in government didn't twig that the largest annual internal migration of young adults from all parts of the UK into high density accomodation in major cities might spur a rise in cases.
So, what you're saying is that Mancs know how to have a good time and Hull students don't...?
Good that we’re propping up the universities though whilst so many businesses face ruin.
So, what you're saying is that Mancs know how to have a good time and Hull students don't...?
The students aren't there because they need to be there to learn (mostly). They're there because it justifies 9 grand's worth of fees and to keep the accommodation services viable. Or at least, that's what I glean from TT's post from a couple of weeks ago.
RE bonjoy's post about why other countries aren't putting restrictions on us - most of Northern England is now on the German risk list, meaning you'd need to test/quarantine on arrival in line with state rules for the relevant area of Germany.
Pretty scandalous. I hope a bunch of them sue their Unis and win. From the outside it looks very much like they've been cynically mis-sold, misled, and put at risk.The students aren't there because they need to be there to learn (mostly). They're there because it justifies 9 grand's worth of fees and to keep the accommodation services viable. Or at least, that's what I glean from TT's post from a couple of weeks ago.
Sorry if the sarcasm in my last sentence was not clear - of course they knew this would happen, I just doubt they cared! Students are an easy target - either don't vote / vote labour, easily scapegoated as young and stupid (especially with the connivance of the UK media usual suspects), and pre-ghettoised for an easy lockdown.
Your view above is my view too - my partner is a lecturer at Hallam so I am aware that they are now a property management company with a learning subsidiary. My reference to a fair solution being available over summer is what MrJR mentions - gov support for uni's to allow them to lower / abolish fees and do online only i.e. honest, transparent, fair. Now that uni's are marketised all it took was for one to "go over the top" and offer some token face-to-face teaching and then they all did. Which means everyone back. Obviously they knew all along they would be offering 90-100% online anyway, which I can guarantee you from conversations with students I know was not obvious to them in all cases. So not transparent, not fair, plus costly and dangerous for the students. Into the bargain they'll potentially get the blame for student cities going into lockdown in the future. If I was a student I would be miffed to put it mildly. Another fine mess...
We have heard nothing from Michelle Donelan either, it’s her brief.
For many of the Universities it was a case of full fees or go bust.I can believe it. I'd still sue. I wouldn't appreciate being thrown under the bus regardless of how many jobs or what business it rescued.
For many of the Universities it was a case of full fees or go bust.I can believe it. I'd still sue. I wouldn't appreciate being thrown under the bus regardless of how many jobs or what business it rescued.
For many of the Universities it was a case of full fees or go bust.
For many of the Universities it was a case of full fees or go bust.
I think you missed a fairly obvious option. Presumably when you attended uni they were neither bust, nor did you pay fees?
This means you then also have to provide for a university going bust - which hasn’t happened yet but will.
Latest Test & trace numbers.
21,268 positive tests referred.
78% reached.
75% of their contacts reached.
Worked out at 4.7 contacts per positive person reached.
If you extrapolate that number to the 22% of positive cases which weren't reached you're left with 42% of close contacts being missed.
World beating?
Indeed - but I suspect we’ll end up with a shade between Sweden and lockdown.
What will trigger the full lockdown is if hospitals / icu can’t cope.
Latest Test & trace numbers.
34,494 positive tests referred.
74% reached.
82% of their contacts reached.
Worked out at 3.94 contacts per positive person reached.
If you extrapolate that number to the 26% of positive cases which weren't reached you're left with 39% of close contacts being missed.
Long Covid?
I think a dose of Covid back in March. Quite mild, but was in close contact with people form work who had it. Persistent cough, some days of flu-like symptoms etc. All cleared up bar some "covid toe" a few weeks later.
Around 3 weeks ago I started getting persistent fatigue, struggling to get out of bed and just not quite feeling 100% cognitively. I had a week off, climbing in fairhead and struggled to get motivated. I was putting it down to be a bit overworked, maybe a bit depressed or generally under the weather but had a nice week anyway. Thought maybe the 2-3 beers in the evening were not helping, so pretty much stopped. Sometimes having a single beer was giving me a headache (I fluctuate between not drinking much and having a beer or two a night, but never have had consistent hangovers from 2 beers!) Stopping has had very little impact other than not throwing another log on the fire, so to speak.
I then had a week back at work, feeling slow and persistent "brain fog". Maybe a few little coughs here and there, but really nothing in the way of flu symptoms. Discussed going to the doctor to see about counselling or something (had some mil-moderate depression and anxiety issues of the last few years since my dad passed away, and GF thought that the whole shit life situation we're all going through was taking it's toll - which it is/could be the issue...)
Last week we were off in the van for a week (just the way the holidays worked out this year) and just took it easy, but still was having focus/mood issues, struggling to recall names, facts, formulate thoughts etc. Noticed I had a bit of "COVID-toe again when taking of climbing shoes, same foot, same 3 toes) My brain is usually a bundle of energy, with a million thoughts all at once. Now it's like wading through treacle...
This week, back at work, more fog. Any long period of sustained concentration fills my brain up with "fog" and I just need to step away and shut my eyes a while.
Got a COVID drive though booked in 45 mins, so I'll see what that says. Pretty sure it'll be -ve but best ruling it out.
Somewhat regretting my slight blase attitude early on - seems like severity of initial symptoms (even if my issues are unrelated...) is not well ocrrelated with ongoing issues. In fact, younger, fitter healthier people seem to be getting hit quite bad by the lower-grade chronic issues.
Latest Test & trace numbers.
34,494 positive tests referred.
74% reached.
82% of their contacts reached.
Worked out at 3.94 contacts per positive person reached.
If you extrapolate that number to the 26% of positive cases which weren't reached you're left with 39% of close contacts being missed.
Thanks James, very interesting. It should be noted that this is for England only isn't it? I.e. the privatised Serco system. Over the completed weeks between start of August and end of Sept in Scotland the NHS run Test and Protect system has closed out contact tracing on 97% of all positive cases. Yes, 97% on average! Note that Serco are nowhere near this system, its run by the NHS and local authorities as far as I am aware. If you want the raw figures they are on page 10 of this Scotgov document: https://beta.isdscotland.org/media/5967/20-10-07-covid19-publication_report.pdf . £12 billion well spent?
It does feel like there should be penalties for consistently missing targets though!
I heard on the radio just now (can’t find it online) that there is a Greater manchester NHS memo thats been leaked to the MEN that says at present rates we’ll be at the peak rate of hospital admissions here in Manchester by the end of the month.
I heard on the radio just now (can’t find it online) that there is a Greater manchester NHS memo thats been leaked to the MEN that says at present rates we’ll be at the peak rate of hospital admissions here in Manchester by the end of the month.
Would it be worth booking a private antibody test? I’ve see some advertised for around £100.
I just checked and you're right - England only.
It does feel like it isn't working, though in reality I don't know what to compare it to.
The Scotland one is performing far better, but it does have significantly fewer cases to get through. But I guess if you look back at past reports for England (I'm not sure how to get them) they must have had a time with cases were much lower and many people were still being missed then.
It does feel like there should be penalties for consistently missing targets though!
It does feel like there should be penalties for consistently missing targets though!Hopefully but I doubt it. Although Serco have in the past been fined millions by UK gov for charging them for tagging prisoners who turned out to be dead so you never know.
If track and trace is working in Scotland we might as well drop the whole fucking idea as it obviously does nothing to stop the spread of the virus.
I have always thought the idea was a waste of time in western country’s where people just don’t follow rules.
My business is paying wages in full for all staff if they have to isolate yet have caught two people off work who just continued to go out in town, to peoples houses and basically treat it like a normal holiday. One of them had tested positive and has now been sacked.
If it’s negative you would still be in the dark though I guess.
IIRC Private Eye looked into this and found there were no penalties for missing targets within the contract. Either that or there weren’t even any official targets they had to hit. It was one or the other.Just checked again and for both Serco and Sitel the targets they have to hit have never been released. And in both cases the contracts don’t have ‘service penalties’ anyway so it’s irrelevant whether they hit whatever those undisclosed targets are.
If track and trace is working in Scotland we might as well drop the whole fucking idea as it obviously does nothing to stop the spread of the virus.
I have always thought the idea was a waste of time in western country’s where people just don’t follow rules.
and have had no additional stress that would possibly trigger.
... apart from the pandemic we're all living through? It's really easy to underestimate because it's happening to us all, but it is a huge stressor and apparently a shit-tonne of people are having psych symptoms for the first time in their lives.
... apart from the pandemic we're all living through? It's really easy to underestimate because it's happening to us all, but it is a huge stressor and apparently a shit-tonne of people are having psych symptoms for the first time in their lives.
I'd agree with this completely. I'm not one for stress, ever, but what a shite year it's been.
... apart from the pandemic we're all living through? It's really easy to underestimate because it's happening to us all, but it is a huge stressor and apparently a shit-tonne of people are having psych symptoms for the first time in their lives.
I'd agree with this completely. I'm not one for stress, ever, but what a shite year it's been.
It has been pretty crappy, to say the least. Bad enough that I've recently left a secure job because I realised that I mentally just couldn't cope with it any more. I'm sure it's been far worse for many others.
... apart from the pandemic we're all living through? It's really easy to underestimate because it's happening to us all, but it is a huge stressor and apparently a shit-tonne of people are having psych symptoms for the first time in their lives.
I'd agree with this completely. I'm not one for stress, ever, but what a shite year it's been.
It has been pretty crappy, to say the least. Bad enough that I've recently left a secure job because I realised that I mentally just couldn't cope with it any more. I'm sure it's been far worse for many others.
That’s tough, but it must have been the right move. Respect for taking that decision!
Looks like I will be "in hiatus" shortly too, Oil industry is not doing well right now.
(May have not heard the 250k figure right - soz of wrong)
There were an average of 17,200 new cases per day of Covid-19 in private households in England between 25 September and 1 October, according to the latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This is up from an estimated 8,400 new cases per day for the period from 18 to 24 September.
Tweets now appearing with data/slides from CWiddy’s briefing to the Northern MP’s...
Edit: here’s a link https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1314179590412271617?s=21
Showing in 18-30’s 30% of cases linked to visits to Pubs and restaraunts, and another 10% from people working there. Total drops to 30% for older groups.
What frustrates me is that if this data isnt super new - why couldn’t we see it before? It smells like its being released now as part of an orchestrated plan to justify more lockdown (which BTW I completely agree with...). I listened to Sturgeons briefing the other day live (having my lunch when WFH) and I wish Englands leaders could treat the audience with the same level of respect and intelligence.
There was a CDC study (from US obvs) showing that Covid+ cases reported visiting a hospitality venue at a rate of twice that of the general population...
I think I was trying to get across that part of the problem is that we don’t get all the data - just leaks or snippets.
So we’re left filling in the blanks for ourselves.. I wish they’d trust us more... or even a bit!
There was a CDC study (from US obvs) showing that Covid+ cases reported visiting a hospitality venue at a rate of twice that of the general population...
Yes - if it were an experiment you’d have ten identical towns and for each town ‘unlockdown’ one feature (bar, cafe, restaraunt, church, gym etc.. ) and compare rates to lockdown rates.
Destined not to be that simple of course and impossible to implement except in a ruthless authoritarian dictatorship 😮 (getting there though 😀).
I’m putting together a grant proposal at the moment with a load of health scientists - and have some insights into how tricky it is to gain meaningful data from how people behave!
So as per my posts on B3 from here: https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603070.html#msg603070 (https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603070.html#msg603070)
and here:
://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603488.html#msg603488 (https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603488.html#msg603488)
There's now more evidence to back this up.
Preclinical research on NR and its role in covid-19 infected cells has now been released today in pre-print form, available here: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.047480v3
Note my disclaimers - I'm a shareholder in Chromadex (which are up 22% on this news)
Further research adding evidence to the B3 / NAD+ hypothesis.
https://twitter.com/FehrLab/status/1260342672688119810 (https://twitter.com/FehrLab/status/1260342672688119810)
Update on this. The next pre-clinical study was released last night US time. It reinforces the hypothesis that's been building around NAD depletion leading to worse outcomes from covid-19 infection; and the role of NAD augmentation using NR to slow virus replication.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chromadex-announces-study-results-highlighting-103600635.html
These are great times to be a mouse.
Human study coming soon..
(I'm an investor, I'm biased)
Other compounds in the mix as well as B3.
On first glance it appears the guidance on outdoor leisure activities is as per last time. The bits of the guidance about not driving to exercise in the outdoors away from home are ridiculous for people who live close to mountainous areas (or any rural area really), and punish healthy behaviour that the evidence shows has virtually zero impact on transmission but significantly positive impact on wellbeing. I won't be complying with those parts of the lockdown.
e.g.
''Can you leave home to exercise?
Yes, you can, and you can do so as often as you like for exercise as long as you do so from home and are alone or with members of your household (and/or a carer).
What kind of exercise is permitted?
There are no legal limits on this, but in practice this is constrained by other restrictions that have been imposed such as the closure of leisure centres, gyms and swimming pools.
Are there any limits on how far you can run or cycle for exercise?
There are no limits on the distance you can travel during exercise, though the nearer you stay to your home, the better. Your exercise should start and finish from your home and you should exercise alone or with a member of your household.
Can you exercise by going fishing or horse riding?
This is not specifically prohibited. However, you should not be driving to get to somewhere to exercise, and the need to carry sports equipment isn’t regarded as a justification on its own for driving in these circumstances. This will mean in practice most people cannot do these things for the short period of the lockdown.
All exercise must be undertaken alone or with members of your household.
Can you drive somewhere to exercise?
Exercise should be undertaken locally, the guidelines say. That means from home or as close as possible to the home. In general this should not involve people driving to a location away from home for this purpose. No journeys of any significant distance should be taken, for example, just in order to exercise in the countryside or at beauty spots.
There are exceptions for people with specific health or mobility issues.''
They’ve also rolled out the same bullshit logic from March about ‘risky activities’:
while increased numbers of cyclists once again hit the roads again over the next 17 days, this time in autumn weather and low light levels..
They’ve also rolled out the same bullshit logic from March about ‘risky activities’:This policy didn't have the effect they intended. As swimming pools were so much later to reopen than in England, all of the serious swimmers took to open water training every day because they couldn't train in their usual pools.
As one of the purposes of the restrictions is to reduce pressure on the Welsh NHS, we also ask people to avoid activities that involve a significant degree of risk (for example swimming or other exercise at sea, or in lakes, rivers or other waterways).
I would love to know what roles warrant a £6000 day rate. And whether they are deemed inside IR35....
Latest Test & trace numbers (10-16 September)
21,268 positive tests referred.
78% reached.
75% of their contacts reached.
Worked out at 4.7 contacts per positive person reached.
If you extrapolate that number to the 22% of positive cases which weren't reached you're left with 42% of close contacts being missed.
World beating?
Latest Test & trace numbers (24-30 September)
34,494 positive tests referred.
74% reached.82%68.6% of their contacts reached.
Worked out at 3.94 contacts per positive person reached.
If you extrapolate that number to the 26% of positive cases which weren't reached you're left with39%49% of close contacts being missed.
I've not really followed the story on track and trace. But I can tell you of one friend who gave a false name in a restaurant so that they wouldn't be contacted. Is there any data on why the contacts are failing?
Interesting. If the figures TT gives are representative of the pattern across the country it would suggest that the national organisation just isn't putting in the hard yards to tracking people down (I have occasionally at work had to try and figure out who owns a piece of land and get in touch with them - believe me, you have to be utterly dogged in your approach).
Is this forum entirely made up of virtue signalling guardianista muzzled covidians? Why not set up your own UKB Gulag ffs.
Is there no one here who questions this fucking lunacy?
So...
Nothing really.
Ok.
So...
Nothing really.
Ok.
Bollocks
After reading a couple of your posts I’m glad you’re keeping it minimal rather than the standard mountains of excrement you spout
The impact on health and welfare outweighs the benefits.
Masks and social distancing should not be mandatoryPlease justify, since I can see no sensible rationale behind this.
People should be free to travel, exercise and work without fearThis entirely misses the point that older people, people with pre-exisitng conditions, and those who think that long-COVID could fuck their lives up would be significantly less able to travel, exercise in gyms or go to work under the regime you appear to advocate. You may have some nuance behind your thoughts (doesn't seem likely given most of your posts), if so please address my point
Home working where possible is advisable, possibly benefiting the environmentI'm sure we're all with you on these ones.
Vulnerable can self isolate with full support if they choose
Boris should be placed in stocks and pelted with rotten fruit and vegetables
Get yer muzzle back on before you contract the dreaded ‘long-covid’.
The impact on health and welfare outweighs the benefits.Over what time period are you thinking?
Worth pointing out that article should come with a huge flashing caveat. The model is calibrated based upon super spreading events... This model shows you what would happen if you are unlucky enough to be in a super-spreading event in various places.
Most people (perhaps 8/10) do not cause super spreading events, so we might roughly say that 8 times out of ten putting yourself in the scenarios shown will NOT lead to the outcome suggested...
This is a pre-print, but models transmission to suggest that there's no need to postulate particular individuals who are "super-spreaders" in order to have super-spreading events:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.21.20216895v1.full.pdf
Nice guide to aerosol transmission here from El Pais (in English).
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html
I'm probably being incredibly dumb here: how can you relate the number of people infected in these scenarios to a R number in the population? I don't spend all my time in the pub, in an office with other people etc, so for most of the time these models wouldn't apply to me?This is a pre-print, but models transmission to suggest that there's no need to postulate particular individuals who are "super-spreaders" in order to have super-spreading events:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.21.20216895v1.full.pdf
That's sort of missing the point. The paper shows that you don't need to have an index case with viral loads at the upper end of the distribution to have a super-spreading event. Fine.
But it's perfectly obvious that the majority of scenarios like the ones in the el-pais article don't lead to the outcomes shown. In every one of those scenarios the index case causes 5+ secondary cases, even given moderate controls (e.g reduced bar capacity).
How then was R0 only ~3 before any controls were introduced? It's simply not possible if the modelled scenarios are typical.
I'm probably being incredibly dumb here: how can you relate the number of people infected in these scenarios to a R number in the population? I don't spend all my time in the pub, in an office with other people etc, so for most of the time these models wouldn't apply to me?This is a pre-print, but models transmission to suggest that there's no need to postulate particular individuals who are "super-spreaders" in order to have super-spreading events:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.21.20216895v1.full.pdf
That's sort of missing the point. The paper shows that you don't need to have an index case with viral loads at the upper end of the distribution to have a super-spreading event. Fine.
But it's perfectly obvious that the majority of scenarios like the ones in the el-pais article don't lead to the outcomes shown. In every one of those scenarios the index case causes 5+ secondary cases, even given moderate controls (e.g reduced bar capacity).
How then was R0 only ~3 before any controls were introduced? It's simply not possible if the modelled scenarios are typical.
I'm probably being incredibly dumb here: how can you relate the number of people infected in these scenarios to a R number in the population? I don't spend all my time in the pub, in an office with other people etc, so for most of the time these models wouldn't apply to me?This is a pre-print, but models transmission to suggest that there's no need to postulate particular individuals who are "super-spreaders" in order to have super-spreading events:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.21.20216895v1.full.pdf
That's sort of missing the point. The paper shows that you don't need to have an index case with viral loads at the upper end of the distribution to have a super-spreading event. Fine.
But it's perfectly obvious that the majority of scenarios like the ones in the el-pais article don't lead to the outcomes shown. In every one of those scenarios the index case causes 5+ secondary cases, even given moderate controls (e.g reduced bar capacity).
How then was R0 only ~3 before any controls were introduced? It's simply not possible if the modelled scenarios are typical.
Because we do have a fairly decent idea of how long people are infectious for, and what they were doing with their time before the pandemic. Suppose you are infectious for a day or two. The average infected person before controls were in place would find themselves in one of these environments - enclosed transport, offices, pub, climbing wall.
The only way you could have the scenarios shown be typical and still have R0~3 is if people were only infectious for a few hours, so there’s a high chance they weren’t in such situations when they were infectious.
Rishi loses some of his gloss: Eat out to Help out led to fresh clusters of cases
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-eat-out-to-help-out-accelerated-second-wave-of-covid-19-study-says-12118285
Having the extra ice cream is very good of you x
I don't think anybody was under any illusions that the scheme wouldn't lead to more cases, but literally any policy less severe than chaining everybody to their radiators for the whole summer would have had to same effect to a greater or lesser degree. The question is, was it worth it?
We took advantage of it by going out for lunch to places where we could sit outside, and we bought more coffees/ice creams-to-go than we otherwise would have done, but seeing photos of multiple generations crowded round a table in a curry house seemed daft.Well what you describe as daft is exactly what every restaurant round here was like, all days for three days a week through August.
Eat-out-to-help-out was designed to get people together in high numbers again (albeit 'covid-safe') in order to increase people's confidence in going out quickly rather than allowing that to come back naturally over a longer period.
I'm extrapolating a bit. But Boris said a number of times through summer that he wanted to get people confident going out and about again to get the economy moving. That was his primary focus. I think they just misjudged it.
in some areas that was enough to tip the balance back to an exponential increase from mid-late August.
I think we agree on that. Better enforcement of the rules...
Soft touch enforcement with restaurant owners (eg inspectors making informal contact on the phone to make sure they were aware of their responsibilities) cor similar, could be effective. Many places just had too many tables packed in. Unlike pubs enforcement doesn't mean you don't need to forcibly separate anyone. Anyway, all water under the bridge now...I think we agree on that. Better enforcement of the rules...
I thought that initially but having reflected on it I think by the time you're requiring enforcement you're f*cked.
I'm not surprised that restaurants got as many bums on seats as they could. The rules around that should probably have been tighter and/or better enforced.
in some areas that was enough to tip the balance back to an exponential increase from mid-late August.
Sorry, I feel like a nitpicking dick now, but isn't this also speculation? Anything above R=1 in a population will leave to exponential growth. Is that R was sitting below 1 and it was EOTHO that made the increase to >1? I'd be surprised if you could disaggregate EOTHO from the other factors causing increased transmission. Gyms, inter-household visiting, people going dogging again etc etc etc.
in some areas that was enough to tip the balance back to an exponential increase from mid-late August.
Sorry, I feel like a nitpicking dick now, but isn't this also speculation? Anything above R=1 in a population will leave to exponential growth. Is that R was sitting below 1 and it was EOTHO that made the increase to >1? I'd be surprised if you could disaggregate EOTHO from the other factors causing increased transmission. Gyms, inter-household visiting, people going dogging again etc etc etc.
what seems significant is how much higher the probabilities are for the USA compared to almost everywhere else. I knew it was bad there but I didn't realise how much worse than the UK it was.
Along the same lines as the above, here's a link to the risk assessment tool described by this week's More or Less on Radio 4. It gives a probability for a guest at a gathering of a selected size in a particular area being Covid positive (based on background prevalence rates - with a background assumption on how many cases there are for every one detected).
https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/ (https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/)
I guess how accurate the figures are is arguable but what seems significant is how much higher the probabilities are for the USA compared to almost everywhere else. I knew it was bad there but I didn't realise how much worse than the UK it was.
Tier 2 for the 'Pool! :bounce:
Yep great news.
Hopefully they don't drop the ball on the rollout, just like they've dropped nearly every other ball this year.
Herd immunity will take just as long whatever the order of sub-groups we prioritise.
Excellent quote today from a Polish writer whose name I can't spell:
"Any vaccine should be tested on the politicians first. If they survive, the vaccine is safe. If they don't, the country is safe"
Also there is some worrying news today about a faster spreading mutation of C19 in the SE
New York Times article on the cronyism in the UK’s pandemic spending.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/17/world/europe/britain-covid-contracts.html
Being generous - you could say the UK media sometimes can’t see the wood for the trees.
But really the UK press should be holding the governments toes to the fire over this.
You forgot the slashing the laptops for disadvantaged children scheme...
You forgot the slashing the laptops for disadvantaged children scheme...
Well, disadvantaged children are simply not a priority for this administration.
Edit. - not right thread for the comment
Better late than never Boris.
Was there any clarity about whether these new restrictions are going to have a legal basis or just remain guidance?
Anyone seen the tier 4 rules written down properly anywhere? Trying to work out if you can enter a Tier 4 area in order to use it to leave the country (airport or tunnel)?
Looks like it's legit to fly from London or get tunnel from Folkstone if you live in tier 3 (or at least it's not explicitly breaking the law!)..
Looks like they just put the full rules out for tier 4:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/tier-4-stay-at-home
Looks like it's legit to fly from London or get tunnel from Folkstone if you live in tier 3 (or at least it's not explicitly breaking the law!)..
Have they sorted out the whole Euros not wanting Brits ton travel to their countries after Brexit now?
Looks like the Welsh gov just made it illegal to leave Wales though from midnight tonight.
@OMM aside from increased cases, illness and ultimately fatalities - a more transmissible virus means we (all) have to recalibrate our distancing measures and behaviour. From how careful we personally are in shops, street - even the crag, to how schools and business is organised. By trial and error we have worked out what level of tier or lockdown reduces or controls spread - now that has to be rethought/toughened up.
Maybe.
Was there any clarity about whether these new restrictions are going to have a legal basis or just remain guidance?
Have they sorted out the whole Euros not wanting Brits ton travel to their countries after Brexit now?
No, you need to be out there before 1st Jan... we're currently working out whether the wrath of my mum if we cancel Christmas is more scary than the risk of a more comprehensive lockdown before we're due to escape (just before new year)!Looks like the Welsh gov just made it illegal to leave Wales though from midnight tonight.
Run while you can!
Holland, Belgium, Italy and just announced Ireland not accepting travellers from the UK.
As one professor (McNally) said: "We know there's a variant, we know nothing about what that means biologically...It is far too early to make any inference on how important this may or may not be."
As one professor (McNally) said: "We know there's a variant, we know nothing about what that means biologically...It is far too early to make any inference on how important this may or may not be."
They seem to know a bit about it:
https://www.cogconsortium.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Report-1_COG-UK_19-December-2020_SARS-CoV-2-Mutations.pdf (https://www.cogconsortium.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Report-1_COG-UK_19-December-2020_SARS-CoV-2-Mutations.pdf)
They seem to know a bit about it:
Having read that - it doesn’t really say much apart from what distinguishes the different types and their occurrence.
+0.9? Not a lot of ´headroom’ there.None..?
@offwidth - you misunderstood my post. We simply don’t know at the moment - but a major shift in the transmissibility of the virus may mean we have to rethink (towards harsher measures) how we deal with it at the moment.
the new variant is less detectable in PCR tests (I think)
the new variant is less detectable in PCR tests (I think)
Don’t think this is the case, the new variant seems to be detectable after fewer PCR cycles (lower ct). This implies more copies the viral RNA are present in the test sample and so suggests a higher viral load.
Drosten noted that the viral strain had also been detected in other countries, like the Netherlands, where it didn’t appear to have multiplied in a significantly more rapid way.
It's good news, in that the new variant is probably not changing anything significantly, but the hysteria that the government have created whilst covering their arses is going to cause some major real-world problems.
My main point is really that with or without the new variant, the rise in cases in London and the South East has not been particularly sudden, and is explained quite reasonably with bog standard Covid. Plenty of examples of cases continuing to rise in the North West back in September whilst effectively being in the equivalent of tier 3. Bolton was a good example.
The best case is that you and Ali are absolutely correct in your cynicism (better posted on the covid & politics thread?) that this is all just a government ploy to ‘cover their arses over not cancelling xmas earlier’.
The much worse case is that there actually IS a much more virulent strain of covid spreading uncontrollably across the UK.
I wish that you were correct, but the facts suggest that you’re completely wrong.
The best case is that you and Ali are absolutely correct in your cynicism (better posted on the covid & politics thread?) that this is all just a government ploy to ‘cover their arses over not cancelling xmas earlier’.
The much worse case is that there actually IS a much more virulent strain of covid spreading uncontrollably across the UK.
I wish that you were correct, but the facts suggest that you’re completely wrong.
My cynically mind sees this the other way round entirely. As much as I think our government is incompetent at times on covid some of the tory backbenches are plain insane on the subject. I think Boris needed the additional evidence on Friday before he could be confident they would win the internal political battle. I think the data and hospital spare capacity indicates we need a March style lockdown now. Tory backbenchers in the Covid Recovery Group and the ERG are talking about forcing a commons vote to try and reverse Tier 4.
The best case is...that this is all just a government ploy to ‘cover their arses over not cancelling xmas earlier’.
...the facts suggest that you’re completely wrong.
we need a March style lockdown now. .
The nervtag meeting minutes are from Friday.
The much worse case is that there actually IS a much more virulent strain of covid spreading uncontrollably across the UK.
Much as I love a bit of Tory bashing that’s just not true. The nervtag meeting minutes are from Friday.
I totally agree the more extreme elements of the Tory party are insane. I’m just not fucking concerned with the politics of this virus, just how prevalent it is and what the risk is.
Re. the increase in R:
My understanding of R is that it’s a function of the transmissibility of the virus and the behaviour of the population (and susceptibility of the population). R was around 3 in March where behaviour was mostly normal, it dropped to 0.6 in full lockdown as a result of the behaviour change. As a theoretical example if there were 0 interactions between people, R of this new strain couldn’t be between 0.4 and 0.9 because the virus doesn’t spontaneously infect people and if people behaved in a pre COVID way (R~=3) it wouldn’t only increase by 0.9. Why isn’t it being quoted as a relative increase to R? Is this just to make it a more consumable fact by most people or have I misunderstood?
As for Stu's point nevrtag did indeed only report on Friday but the scary prevalence growth in Kent has been known for a week now. I think Boris delayed as he needed more convincing information for his backbenchers (and maybe did cheat a bit by waiting until after the start of the recess).The rise in cases may have accelerated in the past week but it has been known about since late November.
"The amount of evidence in the public domain is woefully inadequate to draw strong or firm opinions on whether the virus has truly increased transmission," said Prof Jonathan Ball, a virologist at the University of Nottingham.
My understanding:- the test used for the UK Pillar2 testing multiplexes three PCR primer pairs to SARS CoV2 (along with another pair to an internal MS2 control). One of the three pairs doesn't work on this 69-70del new variant but the other two primer pairs do still work fine and, as you say, have been detecting this variant with lower ct.
The moment I heard Grant Shapps was one of the three - I knew it would be nothing of substance :D
One thing confusing me about the pandemic is the current total weekly death rate. It’s slightly above average at the moment consistently around 12,000 and less than the Jan feb 2018 which was consistently between 12,000 - 15,000. Does this mean the measures are working?
Comparing the total death rates between now and last year is pointless because for a start, deaths from flu will likely be well down on last year, because lockdowns and social distancing will help control both virii and thus suppress flu deaths as well as hopefully stop Covid spiralling out of control. Pollution is well down too, and given it's link to cardiovascular death, asthma etc... plus not commuting to work probably reduces quite a few as well.
My understanding, and someone please correct me if I'm wrong, is that the "excess deaths" figure basically removes the noise from deaths not from Covid to give an idea of how many people it has killed (arguments about how this is actually decided notwithstanding).
Yeah, presumably the interesting metric is "what would be happening if we just smashed on as normal"... but it would be a high risk strategy to try to find out! Failing that, it would be interesting to see analysis by cause of death to see where the declines are to cancel out the covid deaths
Just with regard to Flu, without anything else considered, the types of precautions and societal changes that have shown marked effect in Covid transmission, would/should (surely) also have similar effects on Flu transmission and cases (and therefore deaths)m added to which there is a fairly effective vaccine. Flu deaths must be well down.
I haven't been following all of this thread so apologies if mentioned before.
A remarkable statistic I saw the other day was than more than 1 in 4 people who've died of COVID have had a dementia diagnosis.
It's not an argument against shutting things down, (I know it affects all kinds of subgroups, and everyone has long term risk of issues) but it's a high cost to save a particular part of the population.
What would be a better plan, maybe shield the vulnerable and everyone else get on with it?
I haven't been following all of this thread so apologies if mentioned before.
A remarkable statistic I saw the other day was than more than 1 in 4 people who've died of COVID have had a dementia diagnosis.
It's not an argument against shutting things down, (I know it affects all kinds of subgroups, and everyone has long term risk of issues) but it's a high cost to save a particular part of the population.
Danm sewers?
Anyway I see lots of England is going into tier 4. Matt Hancock looked quite stressed while talking about it, quite tired. Those guys are really under pressure from all sides at the moment.
Danm sewers?
Anyway I see lots of England is going into tier 4. Matt Hancock looked quite stressed while talking about it, quite tired. Those guys are really under pressure from all sides at the moment.
Eh? The only sympathy I’ve had for anyone in govt was for Boris when he was in intensive care. Most of the mess has been created by their flawed decisions and scandalously managed ‘solutions’. From TTI to PPE procurement. Trip to Barnard castle anyone?
They’ve refused any scrutiny or enquiry (enquiries are there to help us learn from mistakes not to punish) and keep on offering us meaningless moonshot promises week on week.
There really are too many examples to list!
So no - I have no sympathy for Hancock If he’s looking haggard.
If you voted for them. Reap what you sow.
- Not fucking up test and trace might have been useful
...this gov seems spectacularly capable of fucking things up.
My sister had her first dose today.
She’s vulnerable, shielding, NHS staff.
She says they’re starting/doing the NHS staff, frontline and admin.
Tell her to take it.
She is also a parent and what ever she does for the NHS, she’s more important than many who will take it.
An avalanche is made of insignificant flakes, take away enough flakes, it’s spindrift. We need the avalche.
What would be a better plan, maybe shield the vulnerable and everyone else get on with it?
We've talked about this enough before - use the search function if you want to see views on this one.
More generally:
- Not fucking up test and trace might have been useful
- Not threatening legal action against schools that want to move online in the runup to Christmas and where the parents are on-board with that
- Not sending the students back to uni apart from where necessary for significant lab work (or similar) would likely have been sensible. Fund the unis to charge 1/2 price for the course if this is an issue - much cheaper than the furlough costs from increased restrictions due to increased case numbers. This was proper dumbfuckery - higher cases, the students weren't happy, everybody loses. Apart from large property companies :-\
- Don't tell people to make plans to see people at Christmas when this is clearly a dumb idea. With that horse having bolted, don't move to T4 on the 26th, do it on the 24th.
- Introduce your fluctuating restrictions earlier, when cases are lower, so that the restricted periods can be shorter and TTI can work more effectively
There's a 5 minute starter... Obviously we can't be sure what the impact of any of those measures would have been, but this gov seems spectacularly capable of fucking things up.
MrsTT has been offered one (she’s a public facing NHS worker - though low risk). She’s not made up her mind whether to take it or not (as in thinks others are more deserved).
MrsTT has been offered one (she’s a public facing NHS worker - though low risk). She’s not made up her mind whether to take it or not (as in thinks others are more deserved).If there was someone more deserving, I presume that her refusing to take it would be unlikely to mean they got it instead. It would just go to the next available person on the list.
Haha your patronisation is such a turn on. Comparing Sweden to Sweden. It’s total yearly deaths being lower this year than 7 of the past 10 years and compares well with the other 3. I’ll continue my homework on Denmark etc
Denmark reports ... a mortality rate that has risen over 10 yrs
Ah yeah that makes sense
Why do they have similarly unchanging all cause mortality rates
Can I have another negative Karma point for calling Reeve a pious sanctimonious omnipotent bellend, thanks
I’m not asking you to trust me or making an argument. I’m asking a question you sniffy twat
Not this again.
Not this again.
Sweden? Yeah, I'm sick of bloody Sweden (and I love the place).
Can I have another negative Karma point for calling Reeve a pious sanctimonious omnipotent bellend, thanks
As I am only one of those things, your negative karma was well deserved
No need to be such a bunch of cunts about it.
It was based on this article and looking at some statistics. Like I said my maths isn’t great and it wasn’t intentional rhetoric although I see now it looked that way. No need to be such a bunch of cunts about it.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20201116/Study-compares-deaths-in-Sweden-and-Norway-before-and-after-COVID-pandemic.aspx
More covidian cult curiosities
Sweden - minimal lockdown policy
Currently 2% covid death rate
U.K. cluster fuck - 3% covid death rate
Wait for it.... but the guardian says....
whatever those paying the most and exerting the most force say
What's your hypothesis? That's a genuine (not loaded) question.
Pete’s theory I get in a U.K. vs Sweden argument but the comparison is between Norway and Sweden.
I don’t have one, that’s why I asked on here
oh great and mighty woke wizard
oh great and mighty woke wizard
Does that come with a cape and nice hat?
I’m not claiming papal infallibility barrows. I know I’m a twat. But it remains that I made an effort to admit the flaws of my posts.
Pete’s theory I get in a U.K. vs Sweden argument but the comparison is between Norway and Sweden. Tom’s analysis seems fair based on ‘covid’ statistics but not total mortality which is what I was wondering about.
And I do think the guardian is a rag
I don’t have one, that’s why I asked on here
I’m about to head out etc etc.
Isn’t this all a little Uriah Heep?
Collar (assertion of lowly status) and Cuffs (vocabulary and grammar) don’t match.
Edit: Obviously I’m wandering into Ad Hominem, too busy to flesh it out properly.
As you rightly pointed out, Sweden has no overall increase in its excess deaths in 2020. I thought you were correct to point this out and ask why. Other posters on here may try to claim Sweden 'fucked up'. But their protestations fly in the face of the actual evidence - which says that relative to any other 'Swedish' year in the past 10, Sweden clearly did not fuck up because they haven't suffered any excess deaths. (if the evidence changes, I'll change my opinion).
That's an interesting detail.
If what you interpet is true AJM then it also raises the obvious argument that covid (in the specific context of Sweden's experience) has been no more deadly *for them* than 'a bad flu year', so why take extraordinary measures for one but not the other.
There is a point at which a countries health service becomes over-run by covid cased. At that point mortality rises very rapidly, as you cannot treat the covid patients as well as all the other people needing help of ongoing treatment. At that point the excess mortality will rocket. Sweden may well have not reached that point. Italy did in the first wave, we did during the first wave abs are probably close to that now. Other countries (like NZ) knew that their health service could not cope with even a moderate amount of cases - so were forced into a very comprehensive lockdown (also helped by geography).
Perhaps Sweden's government could be shown to be using its 'societal sacrifice credit' wisely, given it probably knew the bigger picture of their lower than average deaths - would you want to severely restrict people's liberties if you knew it would have zero impact on the 10-year average number of deaths statistic? That's a cynical view obvs, because the people would still die whether or not they moved the needle on a chart.
Or perhaps they could have prevented *even more* deaths than in an average year, by restricting people more.
(I don't have an answer).
If what you interpet is true AJM then it also raises the obvious argument that covid (in the specific context of Sweden's experience) has been no more deadly *for them* than a bad flu year, so why take extraordinary measures for one but not the other.
Sweden's total deaths, last 10 years including 2020:
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/gKvX-KlIdIeHPJs3HBkgdy3KHCEEhfQ-c6auBpzVbdauWYM6kBbAEibCd6_T1RAWceKPVsgdcSsn9WVBiFvVm5F7rebom4Nd48dCjy60KeSJ2W8yupmqPHYZEPzSY_VZx3r-jw2sRN_rjE6GMlkQ60gbqucwBcrj8okHhqzz_JTW0Urv0eFlKfQ4-B694fLL26EtASIdXim0x30-PKKNGzcHVeCY-P_ch3MDSkUO7xbp5kknD-hvEoXpcEEcHjacfSrGTNV7P3dVl5-asMULJbQfnxbVIC9ILcaP8SCxRp0nHZtoObAAwTXFoZD6pDgkAQhHt8rxUC_IsAeNMrQuQuHd7DS82-LWxx8mF2nf5Q_7FHNKJUM89u33t5uERJeyetcpD69WErOzTLxmYOkVzzxU1u8IZw8jgf8zpjRR-RMW1K-upe7KdkWHmD0xaeIqEiPqkbQd-eugPKK6XgNquOXuDwxJDm17idsri8uHiyqUn1ZfQc9MHIqMYPvkgutdYjpGaQOe2uewrXbfb3ar5Ysjbh1hPKK3mwOik-3W7QzH2SJ2JHB1dEj2UTc3Vk5sLWNettQ8PyePgwoqupFJt8fSWU4WM7Cgyybv5FarkJUiZc1mBiDKc7zu5RNlw4nPNzDmht6PxHZnw3ntZPpPl9z2NbeSwyoIkQjivNPlcKCueHDVFvps_d4VYPtWaQ=w1038-h800-no?authuser=0)
That's an interesting detail.
If what you interpet is true AJM then it also raises the obvious argument that covid (in the specific context of Sweden's experience) has been no more deadly *for them* than 'a bad flu year', so why take extraordinary measures for one but not the other.
And that’s clearly what Sweden and to an extent our government has tried to do - until it reaches....
There is a point at which a countries health service becomes over-run by covid cased. At that point mortality rises very rapidly, as you cannot treat the covid patients as well as all the other people needing help of ongoing treatment. At that point the excess mortality will rocket. Sweden may well have not reached that point. Italy did in the first wave, we did during the first wave abs are probably close to that now. Other countries (like NZ) knew that their health service could not cope with even a moderate amount of cases - so were forced into a very comprehensive lockdown (also helped by geography).
Perhaps Sweden's government could be shown to be using its 'societal sacrifice credit' wisely, given it probably knew the bigger picture of their lower than average deaths - would you want to severely restrict people's liberties if you knew it would have zero impact on the 10-year average number of deaths statistic? That's a cynical view obvs, because the people would still die whether or not they moved the needle on a chart.
Or perhaps they could have prevented *even more* deaths than in an average year, by restricting people more.
(I don't have an answer).
If what you interpet is true AJM then it also raises the obvious argument that covid (in the specific context of Sweden's experience) has been no more deadly *for them* than a bad flu year, so why take extraordinary measures for one but not the other.
Sweden's total deaths, last 10 years including 2020:
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/gKvX-KlIdIeHPJs3HBkgdy3KHCEEhfQ-c6auBpzVbdauWYM6kBbAEibCd6_T1RAWceKPVsgdcSsn9WVBiFvVm5F7rebom4Nd48dCjy60KeSJ2W8yupmqPHYZEPzSY_VZx3r-jw2sRN_rjE6GMlkQ60gbqucwBcrj8okHhqzz_JTW0Urv0eFlKfQ4-B694fLL26EtASIdXim0x30-PKKNGzcHVeCY-P_ch3MDSkUO7xbp5kknD-hvEoXpcEEcHjacfSrGTNV7P3dVl5-asMULJbQfnxbVIC9ILcaP8SCxRp0nHZtoObAAwTXFoZD6pDgkAQhHt8rxUC_IsAeNMrQuQuHd7DS82-LWxx8mF2nf5Q_7FHNKJUM89u33t5uERJeyetcpD69WErOzTLxmYOkVzzxU1u8IZw8jgf8zpjRR-RMW1K-upe7KdkWHmD0xaeIqEiPqkbQd-eugPKK6XgNquOXuDwxJDm17idsri8uHiyqUn1ZfQc9MHIqMYPvkgutdYjpGaQOe2uewrXbfb3ar5Ysjbh1hPKK3mwOik-3W7QzH2SJ2JHB1dEj2UTc3Vk5sLWNettQ8PyePgwoqupFJt8fSWU4WM7Cgyybv5FarkJUiZc1mBiDKc7zu5RNlw4nPNzDmht6PxHZnw3ntZPpPl9z2NbeSwyoIkQjivNPlcKCueHDVFvps_d4VYPtWaQ=w1038-h800-no?authuser=0)
I'm an actuary and not a moral philosopher, so I'll duck that part. But a view that they "knew" that their light actions would not lead to something significantly worse than within the 10-year range, in late March, feels like we're crediting them with a lot of foresight - having watched Wuhan go into full lockdown, South Korea blow up, and having watched Lombardy and the rest of North Italy buckle, to be confident that light restrictions would do the job to that degree feels like something they can't possibly have known.
I've seen various arguments as to how much of their approach was framed by the freedoms enshrined in their constitution and the difficulty of removing those, but since I'm not a lawyer either I don't have much of an informed opinion beyond the fact I've seen it quoted.
In terms of your charts, without knowing how the underlying demographics are changing and what that represents as a rate of improvement and so on I wouldn't want to draw too much out of them - I'd prefer something like a standardised mortality rate comparison to help remove some of those potential confounding factors.
On the point about the flu season, it's worth noting that the areas under and over the trend line in their paper didn't obviously look equal - by eye Id have expected higher than average mortality overall, with more above the trend line than under - I'm only assuming they might offset quantitatively because of what others have said (what's your source for the cumulative 2020 excess deaths being zero - is it just the graph you linked? I tried to look to see if I could tie things back together but didn't find anything enormously helpful - everything I could see pointed to obvious excess deaths in the pandemic window with no obvious move beyond the statistical lower bound to compensate for it) . Which loops a bit back to the point about the underlying demographics and how they link from the rates per 100k to the overall death figures. But it doesn't necessarily invalidate your point in concept, in that *if* it looked like it sat within the bounds of winter variation for Sweden, then someone could probably have an interesting discussion about the right balance of how to react to it!
In this study, the researchers calculated weekly mortality rates with 95% confidence intervals per 100,000 individuals and mortality rate ratios to compare the epidemic year (July 29, 2019, to July 26, 2020) with the four preceding years (July 2015 to July 2019).
These scientists have also compared COVID-19 associated deaths and mortality rates for the weeks of the epidemic in Norway and Sweden (between March 16 and July 26, 2020). The data were obtained from the main data registries in these two countries that are close to 100% complete due to mandatory reporting.
All COVID-19 associated mortality (defined as deaths among individuals with a positive COVID-19 test up to thirty days before death) stratified by age has been retrieved from the Institute of Public Health in Norway and the Public Health Agency of Sweden.
Easy Pete - I was deliberately not raising the moral questions.
I think the moral Q you’re asking is one that’s easier with hindsight - is the pain of lockdown worse than a softer approach. Yes?
There are also the moral questions of which people you choose not to treat (and ultimately to die) because your health service is over-run - if you misjudge how well your population will behave and follow the guidance.
Now fresh challenges as the balance between hard and soft options - will now all need to be recalibrated in light of a version that’s 70% more readily transmitted...
Easy Pete - I was deliberately not raising the moral questions.
I think the moral Q you’re asking is one that’s easier with hindsight - is the pain of lockdown worse than a softer approach. Yes?
There are also the moral questions of which people you choose not to treat (and ultimately to die) because your health service is over-run - if you misjudge how well your population will behave and follow the guidance.
Now fresh challenges as the balance between hard and soft options - will now all need to be recalibrated in light of a version that’s 70% more readily transmitted...
I don't think you can avoid the moral question TT if people are going to make assertions that Sweden 'failed'. And I was specifically referring to your and other's assertions to Dan about Sweden - whose health service has not been overwhelmed.
He wasn't talking about anywhere else.
Hmm, the statistica page says it's under maintenance - I did find that link but couldn't get into it. I'll try again in the morning.
I wasn't really responding to Dan, but to your "given it probably knew the bigger picture of their lower than average deaths" comment which implies to me at least the idea of taking decisions with that "headroom" in mind (although maybe I misinterpret you?) - even if you know how much "room you have to play with" in a very utilitarian sense I just don't believe anyone could have had the confidence to know they could stick within it at that point in time.
I wasn't looking for deaths per 100k - SMR is the mortality rate for a reference population (i.e. you take your own rates per 100k by age or age bucket and apply them to a standardised population mix. Removes the potential for distortion by age as well as by population size so more helpful for comparing populations and time periods). I did have a look at the paper but didn't find much of what I had hoped to see in it.
I don’t have one, that’s why I asked on here
I’m about to head out etc etc.
Isn’t this all a little Uriah Heep?
Collar (assertion of lowly status) and Cuffs (vocabulary and grammar) don’t match.
Edit: Obviously I’m wandering into Ad Hominem, too busy to flesh it out properly.
God knows I’m a knob. You take being a condescending wanker to new heights. Eat shit
I don’t have one, that’s why I asked on here
I’m about to head out etc etc.
Isn’t this all a little Uriah Heep?
Collar (assertion of lowly status) and Cuffs (vocabulary and grammar) don’t match.
Edit: Obviously I’m wandering into Ad Hominem, too busy to flesh it out properly.
God knows I’m a knob. You take being a condescending wanker to new heights. Eat shit
Ah shucks!
That’s sweet of you. I was worried you weren’t bothered. I really couldn’t give it my full attention, just five minutes here and there. I guess I just have a talent for it (being a wanker, I mean. Too many bloody years at sea, you have to develop certain “skills”).
Thing is (I guess you didn’t notice), I really only hand you back your own shit with a little garnish.
Even when I do have time, I don’t “do it” when you make a good point, or ask a valid question.
I just read you insults and see a juicy target. Glad to know I scored a point.
Duck next time.
Do you mean specifically in terms of Covid? (The "in this context" bit)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions/januarytojune2020
I don't know if they'll do an update at some point to bring in the full year. But in terms of what I was looking for it's pretty good, from initial inspection, in that it shows standardised mortality rates, then compared to the five year average weekly and cumulatively, amongst other things, for cities and countries in western Europe (including, for the purpose of this discussion, Stockholm and Sweden).
Cheers.
From the text below Figure 3. -
''Throughout 2020, no significant deviations from the five-year average mortality rate were observed in Iceland, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Lithuania, Czechia, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Austria, Estonia, and Hungary.''
No mention of Sweden...
(Dubious - perhaps unfairly - of the data from a couple of those countries!)
Thanks Stone. Reports today Saying the PHE data on contact tracing of the new variant positive cases is showing a 50%+ increase in the number of contacts testing positive over other variants....
Sorry to hear Duncan. I hope you are feeling better. Don’t be shy to call if you need anything.
This thing is absolutely ripping through London at the moment. W was very poorly and tested positive just before Christmas on the 20th so we were isolating - she’s recovered now but still tired.
All three of my close friends and several acquaintances have positive cases in their households and one had the paramedics out yesterday with breathing problems.
Stay safe y’all. Wear your masks, wash your hands and try not to socialise.
Do we understand yet why the new strain is more infectious and what that might mean practically for the social distancing measures we take? Droplets containing the virus aren't going to travel 70% further. I think I read on the BBC that the virus was more successful at infecting cells, so this might mean that the infectious dose is lower, ergo you don't have to be in close contact with someone for as long on order to pick it up? Could it be roughly the same but a lesser proportion of infected persons present as asymptomatic - so we identify more cases?
Bloody hell Ben - good to hear W is recovering but it's still very scary.
Meanwhile, the idiotic deniers are out in force on FB ...
This popped up on my Twitter - covid positive test rates for London at 18%...
Do we understand yet why the new strain is more infectious and what that might mean practically for the social distancing measures we take? Droplets containing the virus aren't going to travel 70% further. I think I read on the BBC that the virus was more successful at infecting cells, so this might mean that the infectious dose is lower, ergo you don't have to be in close contact with someone for as long on order to pick it up? Could it be roughly the same but a lesser proportion of infected persons present as asymptomatic - so we identify more cases?
This article summarises our state of knowledge on this quite well:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/31/health/coronavirus-variant-transmission.html
This popped up on my Twitter - covid positive test rates for London at 18%...
18% of the population or 18% of people tested?
Her (and her colleagues) view of the Lateral Flow tests was that they were so crap they were next to pointless....
...Covid where you want to isolate those that have it and don't need to worry about false alarms.I would disagree with this, unless I have misunderstood your meaning? You definitely don’t want large numbers of health professionals (or any other ‘key’ workers) isolating off the back of false positives.
:sorry:Answered by own Q in a quick Google... Just under 14m apparently
Johnson's timetable requires an acceleration from 0.3m jabs per week to 1.9m. This seems...unlikely, to put it diplomatically, especially given the government's form, but god knows I'd love to be wrong.
Gove this morning already rowing back on the mid Feb timetable, suggesting 'some but not all' restrictions could be lifted in March.
good table TT, cheers.
from that it appears two thirds of deaths are from ~ 3.5M people, that number should be vaccinated in a few weeks.
2. We don't know what will control the new strain effectively. The Nov lockdown didn't seem to dent it in Kent/Essex - and we won't know if our now stricter measures are sufficient for a couple of weeks either.It's early days, and I'll feel a lot happier if the trend continues for a bit longer, but we are starting to see the first drops in younger age groups in London which are hopefully the first signs that Tier 4 was effective at getting the new strain under control (noting that schools have been closed and many people have been off work for a couple of weeks).
I feel sympathy for the government here - whilst they have been slow/reactionary - how to deal effectively with the new strain means we're back toI don't have any sympathy for them. While we are back at the figuring out stage, it was clear to see the direction that things were moving and the timing of the vaccine made the choice a no brainer. We should have gone hard and early, instead of delaying. It is the exact same mistakes that they have been making since the beginning. They wait until things reach breaking point before they act.pissing in the windfiguring out what to do and what works best - which was our state in late March.
I feel sympathy for the government here - whilst they have been slow/reactionary - how to deal effectively with the new strain means we're back toI don't share your sympathy. They had hard decisions to make, but sending the kids back for a day to add a link onto the Christmas transmission chain was beyond moronic.pissing in the windfiguring out what to do and what works best - which was our state in late March.
I don't have any sympathy for them.
My feeling is that following the SAGE report before Christmas a UKB government would have scrapped Christmas relaxation, possibly locked down, and planned to not reopen schools... and we're a bunch of punters sat on the net between meetings and mince pies So I struggle to have sympathy. It was totally obvious this would happen; waiting until after Christmas was moronic; waiting until some schools had already opened was truly moronic and presumably gives teachers, children and parents limited prep time (thank god I'm not in any of those categories).
My feeling is that following the SAGE report before Christmas a UKB government would have scrapped Christmas relaxation, possibly locked down, and planned to not reopen schools... and we're a bunch of punters sat on the net between meetings and mince pies So I struggle to have sympathy. It was totally obvious this would happen; waiting until after Christmas was moronic; waiting until some schools had already opened was truly moronic and presumably gives teachers, children and parents limited prep time (thank god I'm not in any of those categories).
Wouldn't the time have been better spent preparing for online learning?
Canteens will now be disposing of food
:sorry:Answered by own Q in a quick Google... Just under 14m apparently
A handy table...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EpMHtY4WEAEFh_3?format=jpg&name=large)
The SARS- CoV-2 pandemic is certainly no rose garden.
(as they are open for some unknown reason)
worrying that a couple of folk in america seem to have caught it after getting their first dose of the Pfizer vacc, esp given our govs strategy of delaying second doses
worrying that a couple of folk in america seem to have caught it after getting their first dose of the Pfizer vacc, esp given our govs strategy of delaying second doses
Yes - If you listen to Pfizer and AstraZ they don’t recommend delaying the booster simply because they have no data on what happens - as they’ve not tested it. It wasn’t in their trials.
They are totally covering their arses - which is totally right.
It was also interesting the BMA didn't have a problem with the change of strategy, only with the cancellation of existing appointments to give second dose to people.
In the areas of the UK where communal worship is allowed, a number of common measures are in place:
Services should be carried out in the shortest possible time - to ensure safety and minimise infection spread
Worshippers should keep a 2m (6ft) distance from anyone not from their own household or support bubble
People must not mingle with anyone not in their own household or support bubble, and should be "encouraged to move on promptly" afterwards
If shoes are removed before a service, people should avoid touching other people's
There should be no shared items such as prayer mats, service sheets, religious texts or hymn books - worshippers should bring their own and then take them home
If people can't bring their own books, places of worship can offer a selection for individuals to use - these should be quarantined for 48 hours before and after use
Those giving and receiving food and drink in a service will have to observe strict precautions
Spoken responses from worshippers should be uttered softly and communal singing avoided to reduce the risk of transmission
If singing is an essential part of the service, and a recording can't be played, only one person should sing - preferably behind a plexi-glass screen, or facing away from worshippers
I’ve been wondering all day (as some of you know) about sharing my heightened anxiety about the way the pandemic is heading.Really sorry to hear about your family Matt.
This morning a family phone call, has pushed the nagging worry from the back of my mind, much further forward.
This worry was seeded by a knowledgeable family member, early last week and that same person called today, because we now have several family members positive and some very ill. People my age and even ten years younger. They have no underlying conditions. None. We expect one to be hospitalised before the night is out.
The seed, that was in the back of my head, germinating away, was a comment about viral load. The new variant is infectious at a smaller viral load.
The comment and the worry of the person who called, was “if the infectious load threshold is lower and we are correct about initial viral load influencing the severity of infection, then we have to consider that the potential for serious infection has also increased”.
I didn’t really know what to think, or whether saying something is daft, without anything more than somebody else’s intuition.
Then I sat down after the dog walk to read through the papers.
I’m sorry, it’s probably paywalled, I know a few can get around that, but the first paragraph carries the gist. I really really hope I’m just getting old and silly. Please, if you have any data or have reliably heard otherwise....
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/we-have-patients-in-their-twenties-and-generations-from-the-same-family-ctkp5mb9k?utm_source=Twitter_Fb&utm_campaign=Dr_John_Covid&utm_medium=branded_social&utm_term=Dr_John_Covid&utm_content=Dr_John_Covid&fbclid=IwAR0llFMVDd0-YiV6z_vOgdqnk0_OoN8xaw7gUCXeNbcqNKlNJKifBgEkm5E (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/we-have-patients-in-their-twenties-and-generations-from-the-same-family-ctkp5mb9k?utm_source=Twitter_Fb&utm_campaign=Dr_John_Covid&utm_medium=branded_social&utm_term=Dr_John_Covid&utm_content=Dr_John_Covid&fbclid=IwAR0llFMVDd0-YiV6z_vOgdqnk0_OoN8xaw7gUCXeNbcqNKlNJKifBgEkm5E)
I posted similar thoughts on the other thread, regional rates are now the opposite of where they were in Nov. Glad to hear Sheffield hospitals are still managing well.
I posted similar thoughts on the other thread, regional rates are now the opposite of where they were in Nov. Glad to hear Sheffield hospitals are still managing well.
Have now seen that and agree.
We are for sure nationwide getting a spike on the back of Christmas mixing but relatively S.York’s in a good place.
Imagine having a government that had foresight.......
I posted similar thoughts on the other thread, regional rates are now the opposite of where they were in Nov. Glad to hear Sheffield hospitals are still managing well.
Have now seen that and agree.
We are for sure nationwide getting a spike on the back of Christmas mixing but relatively S.York’s in a good place.
Imagine having a government that had foresight.......
Sheffield seems to have fared much better than Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham and Newcastle (where infection rates are all rising fast)- any thoughts why? Would have thought the demographics were pretty similar....
On another point - I’m sure we’ve all started hearing about friends/people we know getting CV19 in this recent surge, but I’ve also started hearing a few people saying “we didnt bother getting tested - because we know we’ve probably got it”. Not heard this since the April/May initial peak - and wonder if there is some under-reporting because of this... though suspect this behaviour can be picked up in the positivity rate of tests.
On another point - I’m sure we’ve all started hearing about friends/people we know getting CV19 in this recent surge, but I’ve also started hearing a few people saying “we didnt bother getting tested - because we know we’ve probably got it”. Not heard this since the April/May initial peak - and wonder if there is some under-reporting because of this... though suspect this behaviour can be picked up in the positivity rate of tests.
Maybe I'm being really naive, but I really don't understand why BJ set himself up to fail on vaccines. The UK was actually doing a reasonably good job of it (obviously faster would be better) and he set a target that was clearly not going to be reached, with no roadmap. If we've vaccinated half of those people by mid February that's not bad, but instead he's going to fail at an arbitrary goal that wasn't necessary. What was the point?
Maybe I'm being really naive, but I really don't understand why BJ set himself up to fail on vaccines. The UK was actually doing a reasonably good job of it (obviously faster would be better) and he set a target that was clearly not going to be reached, with no roadmap. If we've vaccinated half of those people by mid February that's not bad, but instead he's going to fail at an arbitrary goal that wasn't necessary. What was the point?
Quite. I'd guess its because its a positive soundbite for people to focus on. And he wants to be loved....
...a tightening of keyworker criteria for school attendance...
Tighter restrictions are all well and good, but compliance with the current restrictions is actually pretty high, despite all the stories you hear about house parties and bad spotting at burbage. Where compliance is still really low is the numbers of people self isolating.
https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/07/pandemic-fatigue-how-adherence-to-covid-19-regulations-has-been-misrepresented-and-why-it-matters/
Dealing with this would give much bigger results than increases on the current restrictions. I’m exasperated that more isn’t been done to tackle this, but I guess it’s because it needs the government to put it’s hands in Rishi’s pockets...
...a tightening of keyworker criteria for school attendance...
This is definitely needed - anecdotally (my daughter's primary and the partner's secondary she teaches at) - load more kids in school.
This needs a lift from non-keyworker employers too IMO (thinking Will's post from a week or so ago), so that non-keyworker parents have the capacity / flexibility to take care of home life alongside a job.
Some numbers from teachers I know:...a tightening of keyworker criteria for school attendance...
This is definitely needed - anecdotally (my daughter's primary and the partner's secondary she teaches at) - load more kids in school.
This needs a lift from non-keyworker employers too IMO (thinking Will's post from a week or so ago), so that non-keyworker parents have the capacity / flexibility to take care of home life alongside a job.
Apparently a massive increase in people claiming to be key workers up here.
Is it me - or is anyone else massively underwhelmed by the vaccination effort?
Is it me - or is anyone else massively underwhelmed by the vaccination effort?
I'm still waiting for Operation Moonshot to take off.
Tighter restrictions are all well and good, but compliance with the current restrictions is actually pretty high, despite all the stories you hear about house parties and bad spotting at burbage. Where compliance is still really low is the numbers of people self isolating.
https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/07/pandemic-fatigue-how-adherence-to-covid-19-regulations-has-been-misrepresented-and-why-it-matters/
Dealing with this would give much bigger results than increases on the current restrictions. I’m exasperated that more isn’t been done to tackle this, but I guess it’s because it needs the government to put it’s hands in Rishi’s pockets...
Yes - and this is firmly in TTI remit. It has also slipped under the radar that the way TTI is now assessed has been changed...
Is it me - or is anyone else massively underwhelmed by the vaccination effort? I appreciate they may well not have fridges/freezers overflowing with the vaccine to give out at the moment, but the pictures of the 7 vaccination centers are somewhat - er meh? As in a que of people outside and inside a few chairs and 5-10 makeshift cubicles... These 7 can apparently do 1000 a day when up to speed - so thats 7 x 1000 x 30 = 210 000 a month... (if they operate 7 days a week).
As far as I can calculate - c.2% of UK population covered in c. 2 weeks. So at that rate, only 50 more weeks to go!Surely more like 100 weeks, given that everyone eventually will receive two doses?
If you want people to comply with self isolation periods you need to cover their full income whilst they are at home.
It's a very simple equation but the right wing mentality of this country would suggest that people would abuse this and we don't want people taking an extra 2 week holiday on full pay do we?
The opposition should be shouting this from the roof tops on infinite repeat, a large majority of our population are behind it.
What are the incentives?
1. Don't self-isolate, because you'll not be paid.
2. Self-isolate, because you'll be paid.
No brainer it would seem - pay people to self-isolate.
But there are lots of other incentives at play, including:
1. Behave carefully avoiding contacts wherever possible for fear of catching covid, because you won't be paid if you need to self-isolate.
2. Behave less carefully not avoiding contacts wherever possible, because if you catch covid you'll likely be OK and have two weeks paid holiday from work
What are the incentives?
1. Don't self-isolate, because you'll not be paid.
2. Self-isolate, because you'll be paid.
No brainer it would seem - pay people to self-isolate.
But there are lots of other incentives at play, including:
1. Behave carefully avoiding contacts wherever possible for fear of catching covid, because you won't be paid if you need to self-isolate.
2. Behave less carefully not avoiding contacts wherever possible, because if you catch covid you'll likely be OK and have two weeks paid holiday from work
I am good with the idea of perverse incentives, but sceptical that the numbers of people seeking to deliberately infect themselves is going to be a big problem.
The numbers of people who just can’t afford to be without their wage for a couple of weeks and so don’t get tested or isolate is a massive problem. There are just too many people in that predicament. It needs fixing.
Automatic furlough if you have to isolate with employers adding 20% might be one solution.
If work is a significant vector (and it must be) then why not shut more businesses and pay furlough? We all know there's loads of work going on that isn't crucial. But I think it's getting harder to win the hearts and minds the longer this goes on.
If work is a significant vector (and it must be) then why not shut more businesses and pay furlough? We all know there's loads of work going on that isn't crucial.Another big issue is workplaces requiring/pressuring employees to go in to work for jobs that can easily be done from home.
I don’t know your business Pete but I worked on the ropes for 7 years, so may have an inkling..
Anonymising to protect reputations, this is a conversation I had years ago. Let’s call the company ‘Tubitech’.
Me : hi
Mate: You’ll never guess what ‘Bill’ just said to me.
Me: Oh?
Mate: He said the insurance pays out £5,000 for ´loss of limb’ and asked me if his little finger was a ‘limb’.
Me: Why?
Mate (quoting ‘Bill’): ´.... because if it is, it’s coming off.´
Meanwhile apparently Johnson has been caught cycling (with his security entourage) 7 miles away from Downing street....
Is it me - or is anyone else massively underwhelmed by the vaccination effort? I appreciate they may well not have fridges/freezers overflowing with the vaccine to give out at the moment, but the pictures of the 7 vaccination centers are somewhat - er meh? As in a que of people outside and inside a few chairs and 5-10 makeshift cubicles... These 7 can apparently do 1000 a day when up to speed - so thats 7 x 1000 x 30 = 210 000 a month... (if they operate 7 days a week).
On the anecdotal front re vaccination progress the wife (NHS, admin rather than frontline) got vaccinated Sunday, dad (81) is booked in for Friday. Know a number of other NHS people who have had vaccine and a few other over 80s - feels like things are moving.
Is it me - or is anyone else massively underwhelmed by the vaccination effort? I appreciate they may well not have fridges/freezers overflowing with the vaccine to give out at the moment, but the pictures of the 7 vaccination centers are somewhat - er meh? As in a que of people outside and inside a few chairs and 5-10 makeshift cubicles... These 7 can apparently do 1000 a day when up to speed - so thats 7 x 1000 x 30 = 210 000 a month... (if they operate 7 days a week).
I’m more impressed now having read more about it. The Etihad vacc centre can do 2000 a day now going up to 8000. C.50k a week. That’s more like it 👍
Our GP is also one of the 7 GP Centres in Manchester doing the vaccinating. Good.
As far as I can calculate - c.2% of UK population covered in c. 2 weeks. So at that rate, only 50 more weeks to go!Surely more like 100 weeks, given that everyone eventually will receive two doses?
On the anecdotal front re vaccination progress the wife (NHS, admin rather than frontline) got vaccinated Sunday, dad (81) is booked in for Friday. Know a number of other NHS people who have had vaccine and a few other over 80s - feels like things are moving.
Yep, wife's had her first jab (Doctor) and my Mum and her friends (mid 70s) are getting contacted and their jabs being booked. It does feel like "it's happening".....
Also agree with pete - if the gov get anywhere near the target by mid feb, plus that study that estimated 12.4M already had it, then we'll be looking in pretty good shape by then.
To be clear, I don't think for a minute the vaccination will take anything like 100 weeks! I was just pointing out that I thought TTT had missed the second dose out of his fag packet calc.As far as I can calculate - c.2% of UK population covered in c. 2 weeks. So at that rate, only 50 more weeks to go!Surely more like 100 weeks, given that everyone eventually will receive two doses?
A more positive take on that is, given 80% of deaths and critical illness occurs in the most vulnerable 20% of population, that means it could be 8 weeks or less for vaccines to give protection for the majority of that 80%.
Over 3% of population vaccinated being reported today and the pace is likely to accelerate.
All attention has focused on the dramatic efficacy results: Pfizer reported 170 PCR confirmed covid-19 cases, split 8 to 162 between vaccine and placebo groups. But these numbers were dwarfed by a category of disease called “suspected covid-19”—those with symptomatic covid-19 that were not PCR confirmed. According to FDA’s report on Pfizer’s vaccine, there were “3410 total cases of suspected, but unconfirmed covid-19 in the overall study population, 1594 occurred in the vaccine group vs. 1816 in the placebo group.”
With 20 times more suspected than confirmed cases, this category of disease cannot be ignored simply because there was no positive PCR test result. Indeed this makes it all the more urgent to understand. A rough estimate of vaccine efficacy against developing covid-19 symptoms, with or without a positive PCR test result, would be a relative risk reduction of 19% (see footnote)—far below the 50% effectiveness threshold for authorization set by regulators. Even after removing cases occurring within 7 days of vaccination (409 on Pfizer’s vaccine vs. 287 on placebo), which should include the majority of symptoms due to short-term vaccine reactogenicity, vaccine efficacy remains low: 29% (see footnote).
This the key bit, and we know first hand in Hospitals how PCR antigen tests fail to pick up 25%-40% of all later confirmed COVID-19 cases....QuoteAll attention has focused on the dramatic efficacy results: Pfizer reported 170 PCR confirmed covid-19 cases, split 8 to 162 between vaccine and placebo groups. But these numbers were dwarfed by a category of disease called “suspected covid-19”—those with symptomatic covid-19 that were not PCR confirmed. According to FDA’s report on Pfizer’s vaccine, there were “3410 total cases of suspected, but unconfirmed covid-19 in the overall study population, 1594 occurred in the vaccine group vs. 1816 in the placebo group.”
With 20 times more suspected than confirmed cases, this category of disease cannot be ignored simply because there was no positive PCR test result. Indeed this makes it all the more urgent to understand. A rough estimate of vaccine efficacy against developing covid-19 symptoms, with or without a positive PCR test result, would be a relative risk reduction of 19% (see footnote)—far below the 50% effectiveness threshold for authorization set by regulators. Even after removing cases occurring within 7 days of vaccination (409 on Pfizer’s vaccine vs. 287 on placebo), which should include the majority of symptoms due to short-term vaccine reactogenicity, vaccine efficacy remains low: 29% (see footnote).
This the key bit, and we know first hand in Hospitals how PCR antigen tests fail to pick up 25%-40% of all later confirmed COVID-19 cases....QuoteAll attention has focused on the dramatic efficacy results: Pfizer reported 170 PCR confirmed covid-19 cases, split 8 to 162 between vaccine and placebo groups. But these numbers were dwarfed by a category of disease called “suspected covid-19”—those with symptomatic covid-19 that were not PCR confirmed. According to FDA’s report on Pfizer’s vaccine, there were “3410 total cases of suspected, but unconfirmed covid-19 in the overall study population, 1594 occurred in the vaccine group vs. 1816 in the placebo group.”
With 20 times more suspected than confirmed cases, this category of disease cannot be ignored simply because there was no positive PCR test result. Indeed this makes it all the more urgent to understand. A rough estimate of vaccine efficacy against developing covid-19 symptoms, with or without a positive PCR test result, would be a relative risk reduction of 19% (see footnote)—far below the 50% effectiveness threshold for authorization set by regulators. Even after removing cases occurring within 7 days of vaccination (409 on Pfizer’s vaccine vs. 287 on placebo), which should include the majority of symptoms due to short-term vaccine reactogenicity, vaccine efficacy remains low: 29% (see footnote).
This the key bit, and we know first hand in Hospitals how PCR antigen tests fail to pick up 25%-40% of all later confirmed COVID-19 cases....QuoteAll attention has focused on the dramatic efficacy results: Pfizer reported 170 PCR confirmed covid-19 cases, split 8 to 162 between vaccine and placebo groups. But these numbers were dwarfed by a category of disease called “suspected covid-19”—those with symptomatic covid-19 that were not PCR confirmed. According to FDA’s report on Pfizer’s vaccine, there were “3410 total cases of suspected, but unconfirmed covid-19 in the overall study population, 1594 occurred in the vaccine group vs. 1816 in the placebo group.”
With 20 times more suspected than confirmed cases, this category of disease cannot be ignored simply because there was no positive PCR test result. Indeed this makes it all the more urgent to understand. A rough estimate of vaccine efficacy against developing covid-19 symptoms, with or without a positive PCR test result, would be a relative risk reduction of 19% (see footnote)—far below the 50% effectiveness threshold for authorization set by regulators. Even after removing cases occurring within 7 days of vaccination (409 on Pfizer’s vaccine vs. 287 on placebo), which should include the majority of symptoms due to short-term vaccine reactogenicity, vaccine efficacy remains low: 29% (see footnote).
So strictly speaking - the vaccine stopped 95% of PCR positive covid cases.
I understand a lot of people on ventilators in hospital currently are in the 50-70 age bracket
What Ian said.
We're doing a lot of testing for *one thing* during the pandemic. What would likely be discovered if all the PCR tests that have been been done to date also magically revealed whatever other viruses the population were carrying?
TT, isn't the term 'suspected covid-19' somewhat irrelevant - what matters are preventing death or critical illness. We aren't parking our lives and economies because people have symptoms of a cold.
we know first hand in Hospitals how PCR antigen tests fail to pick up 25%-40% of all later confirmed COVID-19 cases....
I think you’ve both got the wrong end of what I was trying to say - hope my last post clears that up. I don’t think we’re disagreeing...!
interested where you get this info from, i've not read anything similar and OMM's link would also seem to contradict it?
Given the low death numbers in those in the healthy and < 65 bracket, I think onerous restrictions after the vulnerable are jabbed will become increasingly hard to defend
Easy Ian... I thought the main question mark raised by the blog were the 3000 cases of non tested / negative but with covid ish symptoms. That appeared equally (ish) across both groups.
Hence my first statement - strictly speaking the vaccine group had 5% of the number of positive pcr tests than the placebo group.
That’s not the same as saying the vaccine is 95% effective (as Pfizer may have said) - as we don’t know about the false negatives.
Easy Ian... I thought the main question mark raised by the blog were the 3000 cases of non tested / negative but with covid ish symptoms. That appeared equally (ish) across both groups.
Hence my first statement - strictly speaking the vaccine group had 5% of the number of positive pcr tests than the placebo group.
That’s not the same as saying the vaccine is 95% effective (as Pfizer may have said) - as we don’t know about the false negatives.
Agree.
I think the point is when you only have 0.09% (168 people) getting COVID in the placebo arm, excluding >3000 symptomatic people who we would assume on Uk stats that a minimum of 25% actually had COVID (approx 750 people) asks a serious question of the data.
A further point was that significantly more (5x) amount of participants were excluded from the study in the vaccination arm vs placebo ...thats unusual.
The reasons for the above have not been given, hence why the BMJ and also many Doctors/Scientists/Journals internationally have raised it.
The facts will be in hospitalisation's/morbidity vs vaccine which we won't know for a couple of years.
I don't think anyone is suggesting the vaccine is not going to help, but its efficacy is likely to be lower than 95%. Clearly it also seems clear that in patients who have got COVID post vaccination the symptoms are milder...another reason to have it.
The vaccine is GOOD thing!!! But surely we are allowed to challenge unsupported statements, or else we may as well join MAGA :(
What Ian said.
We're doing a lot of testing for *one thing* during the pandemic. What would likely be discovered if all the PCR tests that have been been done to date also magically revealed whatever other viruses the population were carrying?
TT, isn't the term 'suspected covid-19' somewhat irrelevant - what matters are preventing death or critical illness. We aren't parking our lives and economies because people have symptoms of a cold.
I think you’ve both got the wrong end of what I was trying to say - hope my last post clears that up. I don’t think we’re disagreeing...!
I think all of the healthcare workers and other NHS staff I know have now had at least one dose. Some have had a second dose and many have a second dose scheduled. I don't know if they'll actually get it on their current schedule but it seems that not everywhere is sticking to the longer gap between doses.On the anecdotal front re vaccination progress the wife (NHS, admin rather than frontline) got vaccinated Sunday, dad (81) is booked in for Friday. Know a number of other NHS people who have had vaccine and a few other over 80s - feels like things are moving.
Yep, wife's had her first jab (Doctor) and my Mum and her friends (mid 70s) are getting contacted and their jabs being booked. It does feel like "it's happening".....
[anecdote]
my 80 yo neighbour has had both his jabs
[/anecdote]
Unbelievable to me that a Professor on SAGE is surprised at clusters of transmission in the construction industry
''But he conceded that many people beyond the sector did not realise that many construction workers actually carried out many tasks inside, in confined spaces.''
It wouldn't surprise me at all if the construction industry was the biggest vector of all non essential work.
I know our kids' primary head had to spend months planning for socially distanced / blended learning approach, where they spent forever seeing how many kids they could fit in, wile still maintaining social distance criteria, and alternate teaching days.
So given this:While the above is probably true in terms of defending restrictions (especially to the Tory backbenchers), I’d argue it’s the wrong approach. It’s the same mistake the government made in May by releasing the lockdown too quickly before cases were at a low enough level. We’ve just been letting things rumble on at a lowish but noticeable level that was high enough to make further serious waves almost inevitable.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/14/recovering-from-covid-gives-similar-level-of-protection-to-vaccine
And this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/10/one-in-five-have-had-coronavirus-in-england-new-modelling-says
If we assume equal infection rates across the population, that's around a third of the population, including all the most vulnerable, with a significant degree of immunity by mid Feb. I'm increasingly optimistic of an easing after half term, and it'll be increasingly difficult to defend onerous restrictions.
So given this:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/14/recovering-from-covid-gives-similar-level-of-protection-to-vaccine
And this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/10/one-in-five-have-had-coronavirus-in-england-new-modelling-says
If we assume equal infection rates across the population, that's around a third of the population, including all the most vulnerable, with a significant degree of immunity by mid Feb. I'm increasingly optimistic of an easing after half term, and it'll be increasingly difficult to defend onerous restrictions.
If you look at, say, Australia, that’s how they’ve kept things under control. Local lockdowns come in for a handful of cases and it gets snuffed out fairly quickly.
So given this:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/14/recovering-from-covid-gives-similar-level-of-protection-to-vaccine
And this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/10/one-in-five-have-had-coronavirus-in-england-new-modelling-says
If we assume equal infection rates across the population, that's around a third of the population, including all the most vulnerable, with a significant degree of immunity by mid Feb. I'm increasingly optimistic of an easing after half term, and it'll be increasingly difficult to defend onerous restrictions.
I don't see it being advisable to reopen significantly in February.
The recent rapid spread has occurred despite the levels of immunity from previous infections. It hasn't prevented it tearing through the population.
The reinfection study was only on the under 55s and ran until November. So the data is largely from before the b117 variant. It seems likely that the levels of immunity for a 60 year old against the b117, 501Y.V2 or the new Brazilian variant will be a lot lower.
Although numbers are just starting to head in the right direction in the areas that went to tier 4 earlier, they are doing so from a very high level and, with a more infectious strain plus a weaker lockdown than for lockdown 1, I don't expect numbers to drop that quickly.
So if we start to reopen in February, we are likely to be doing so from a position of still having high prevalence.
In a let it rip scenario, we'll quickly overwhelm the NHS, even with most of the 70+ being immune.
We'll have vaccinated the most vulnerable, who won't die, but the hospitals will fill up with people in their 60s, 50s and 40s until the death rate shoots up again due to lack of healthcare capacity.
Unless numbers start to drop a lot faster than I expect, I don't see opening up in February being sensible.
There's going to be a lot of pressure to do it though, particularly from those who have been vaccinated and those who think they're immune from past infections.
I expect we will see some easing in February. With a return to a tiered system that opens up too quickly and sees a rapid return to very high infection levels that threaten to overwhelm the NHS. I hope I'm wrong.
Yes. Schools were dumped right in the :shit: pre Christmas re:testing. I can only vouch for the secondary school I work in but we have trained up staff and as of this week the sports hall is a fully functioning testing unit. School is open with attendance around 100 pupils each day. Everyone that has consented including staff will be tested twice a week. I have just had my first one done (I scored negative). Personally, I am reassured by this as whilst we know the tests aren't great testing twice a week should be a fairly good screening method and pick up any cases whilst we are all still working with children in school.I know our kids' primary head had to spend months planning for socially distanced / blended learning approach, where they spent forever seeing how many kids they could fit in, wile still maintaining social distance criteria, and alternate teaching days.
Seems like the way forward to me. It does not have to be cycles of all shut/open.
Regarding wasted effort, heads spending their Xmas break organising mass lateral flow testing for children was not really necessary, was it?
We are many months away from a zero covid strategy; to achieve that would probably take until autumn as far as I can see, and would require lockdowns to be a lot stricter than they are now, which even if implemented I suspect would be ignored by large swathes of the public.
Is that rhetorical Chris? It was dumped on them by the DfE as school finished in December. In our case, at 6.30pm, that was 2 hours after we had closed for Christmas.
As ever, there is a world of difference between what we 'should' do in a lab experiment/ideal world and what the government will do I suppose. Whilst I see the merits of sdm and stabbsy's arguments I don't think they will be politically defensible. We are many months away from a zero covid strategy; to achieve that would probably take until autumn as far as I can see, and would require lockdowns to be a lot stricter than they are now, which even if implemented I suspect would be ignored by large swathes of the public.There is no zero covid strategy. We can get deaths and hospitalisations down to low levels (subject to future mutations) and get it to the point where it no longer needs to prevent normal life but there is no chance of eradicating it in this country in the forseeable future.
There is no zero covid strategy. We can get deaths and hospitalisations down to low levels (subject to future mutations) and get it to the point where it no longer needs to prevent normal life but there is no chance of eradicating it in this country in the forseeable future.
If we were able to get it down to zero here, it wouldn't be long before an import event led to a localised outbreak.
I think the closest we can get is to get cases low enough that an effective track and trace system could rapidly control local outbreaks. I'm not convinced we'll ever have the political will to get numbers that low or that we'll ever achieve an effective track and trace system.
It'll be interesting to see how places like New Zealand cope with this issue. With no infection led immunity, they'll need far higher levels of vaccination before they can allow a return to international travel without causing an outbreak.
This is true. NZ relies heavily on international tourism, but they could just impose this "vaccination passport" for visitors. The population is pretty low compared to here too, sure by the same token anyone travelling from there could get a vaccine.I think some sort of vaccination passport is inevitable. And once one country introduces it, everyone else will follow until it is a global requirement.
For now though, they are all stuck in NZ. How hard for them! :)
I think some sort of vaccination passport is inevitable. And once one country introduces it, everyone else will follow until it is a global requirement.
I expect it will lead to some tension this year regarding travel and the rights of old vs young and rich countries vs poorer countries.
I don't generally quote Tory MPs, but Neil O'Brien has handily tweeted a compilation of Toby Young's vacuous tweets on the pointlessness of lockdown/achievement of near herd immunity, now curiously deleted by Young
https://twitter.com/NeilDotObrien/status/1349701110588710916
In fact, I installed an app last week that deletes all tweets more than a week old. This was in response to Twitter's increasing intolerance of people who challenge liberal orthodoxies, including Covid orthodoxy. I would advice other dissenters to do the same.
The app won't protect you from Twitter's internal offence archaeologists, but it will make it harder for censorious political activists to bombard the company with vexatious complaints in the hope of getting you banned.
Its probably not sustainable to exclude ~ 65/70% of the population for being under 70 (although nothing would surprise me!).
Its probably not sustainable to exclude ~ 65/70% of the population for being under 70 (although nothing would surprise me!).
For any country that has essentially isolated itself like NZ and has low level of immunity, they will have to. If any person young or old enters the county, they will either need to be vaccinated, or quarantine and test on arrival.
Well that's encouraging. I've seen a lot of comment suggesting they'll only vaccinate the old and its herd immunity for the rest.
My Dad (also 80+) got his first shot yesterday.
Apparently he's in bed today feeling flu-ey and rubbish, but that's extremely common (and should only last a day or two) -- I briefed my folks in advance that this was possible so not to be freaked out by it.
Think he might be using it as an excuse to hog the TV for West Wing-watching purposes, though.
MrsTT has recently watched ALL of ER (for at least the second time) and is 70% through the Buffys.... it’s her comfort blanket at the end of every day...Mrs OMM and I were working through “The Ship”, this time last year.
My parents are quite into the Crown “I remember that happening don’t you know” 🥱
Why would anybody watch “West Wing” now (on premium for sure) when you can just put on CNN? Possibly the CNN plot is more ludicrous and unbelievable, but...
My folks were due to get their second dose on Weds - but was cancelled on Monday. Standard I think now.
MrsTT also had her second Pfizer cancelled too.
Mother in law was convinced she was supposed to phone up a number at Guys (london) to get her jab (she's 70) and when she got through unsurprisingly they said it was only over 80's....
As an escapist view of some not really believable liberal utopia ;) ?
As an escapist view of some not really believable liberal utopia ;) ?
THAT.
Or maybe because it's some of the best written TV ever, with high production values.
As an escapist view of some not really believable liberal utopia ;) ?
THAT.
Or maybe because it's some of the best written TV ever, with high production values. There must be a massive gap at present in taking the themes of the show crossed with those other American greats, The Wire and The Sopranos on an anti utopian theme (not that I see Westwing as anything like utopian.. more like US politics when things were more 'normal')
In slightly deflating news, albeit probably makes sense from an scientific perspective, was listening to Zahawi on the radio just now suggesting that "gradual tiered easing of lockdown will start 2/3 weeks after top 9 priority cohorts vaccinated.' The planned timetable for that is end of March if all goes smoothly, which would suggest mid April before anything gets loosened up. Quite a big change from gradual easing after top 4 cohorts vaccinated (65% of deaths) to top 9 (99% of deaths and majority of pressure on NHS). Will be interesting to see whether that holds as suspect it will come under quite a lot of pressure from Tory right and public tbh.
I think Zahawi has been naughty this morning - starts talking in one interview about teachers, police, shopworkers etc.. being vaccinated before the age groups this morning "its my instinct" they should be I think were his words... before a mini backtrack that its actually set by an independent group (IIRC). Got a bit of Boris "wanting to please the person who's interviewing him"-itis....
Interesting opinion polls in the Sunday papers showing an overwhelming support for continuing and stronger measures amongst the public... that will not have gone un-noticed too.
Universal credit cut U-turn imminent too I bet...
In slightly deflating news, albeit probably makes sense from an scientific perspective, was listening to Zahawi on the radio just now suggesting that "gradual tiered easing of lockdown will start 2/3 weeks after top 9 priority cohorts vaccinated.' The planned timetable for that is end of March if all goes smoothly, which would suggest mid April before anything gets loosened up. Quite a big change from gradual easing after top 4 cohorts vaccinated (65% of deaths) to top 9 (99% of deaths and majority of pressure on NHS). Will be interesting to see whether that holds as suspect it will come under quite a lot of pressure from Tory right and public tbh.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EpMHtY4WEAEFh_3?format=jpg&name=large)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-16/norway-vaccine-fatalities-among-people-75-and-older-rise-to-29
Mildly worrying, seems not the panacea it was hoped to be.
In slightly deflating news, albeit probably makes sense from an scientific perspective, was listening to Zahawi on the radio just now suggesting that "gradual tiered easing of lockdown will start 2/3 weeks after top 9 priority cohorts vaccinated.' The planned timetable for that is end of March if all goes smoothly, which would suggest mid April before anything gets loosened up. Quite a big change from gradual easing after top 4 cohorts vaccinated (65% of deaths) to top 9 (99% of deaths and majority of pressure on NHS). Will be interesting to see whether that holds as suspect it will come under quite a lot of pressure from Tory right and public tbh.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-16/norway-vaccine-fatalities-among-people-75-and-older-rise-to-29
Mildly worrying, seems not the panacea it was hoped to be.
I know someone going through treatment for throat cancer at the moment who’s been told he won’t be getting the vaccine any time soon due to the risk of adverse effects from it. I would have thought the risk of catching covid in hospital would outweigh the risk from the vaccine itself but clearly the doctors don’t think so.
not sure what definition of the cohorts you're using here? the cohorts I've seen are these:(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EpMHtY4WEAEFh_3?format=jpg&name=large)
and that gives 88% of deaths from the top four cohorts. 65% is from the top 1 and a half cohorts?
In slightly deflating news, albeit probably makes sense from an scientific perspective, was listening to Zahawi on the radio just now suggesting that "gradual tiered easing of lockdown will start 2/3 weeks after top 9 priority cohorts vaccinated.' The planned timetable for that is end of March if all goes smoothly, which would suggest mid April before anything gets loosened up. Quite a big change from gradual easing after top 4 cohorts vaccinated (65% of deaths) to top 9 (99% of deaths and majority of pressure on NHS). Will be interesting to see whether that holds as suspect it will come under quite a lot of pressure from Tory right and public tbh.
Haven't seen that interview, but that was always my interpretation of how long this lockdown would last; the legislation says 31st March so I took that as the most reliable indicator of when it might end / restrictions might start being lifted. Especially given a) how long the first lockdown was, and b) that things are worse now than they were then.
Surely the NHS pressure will be the main 'allower' of relaxation? For that - there is a 2-4 week lag on case numbers...
Lots of anecdotal tales of covid hospitalisations in the media being much younger this time around. I wonder if this is due to better resilience (behavioural, PPE, Shielding) amongst the elderly/vulnerable - or whether the new strain does go for a younger cohort? Expect we'll see in the figures eventually but its interesting nothing has shown up yet despite the reports from wards.
Surely the NHS pressure will be the main 'allower' of relaxation? For that - there is a 2-4 week lag on case numbers...
Lots of anecdotal tales of covid hospitalisations in the media being much younger this time around. I wonder if this is due to better resilience (behavioural, PPE, Shielding) amongst the elderly/vulnerable - or whether the new strain does go for a younger cohort? Expect we'll see in the figures eventually but its interesting nothing has shown up yet despite the reports from wards.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-people_who_have_received_vaccinations_by_report_date_daily
worrying drop in vaccination numbers last couple of days - hopefully just a weekend thing.
It’s so hard to know what to think about these sorts of one line stats when there are so many confounding factors with people’s health. Also the Guardian seem to love a good Covid scare story!
I think the vast majority of those in hospital are aged 50-70. Depends how you define much younger I suppose, but I haven't read anything thus far suggesting that those in their 20'/30's/40s are being disproportionately affected.
It’s so hard to know what to think about these sorts of one line stats when there are so many confounding factors with people’s health. Also the Guardian seem to love a good Covid scare story!
100%. I'm all for slagging the government off but I think a lot of the reporting around vaccine side effects in particular borders on the scaremongering.
Reports from Israel suggesting that single Pfizer dose only 50% effective....I’d heard 89% today from an NHS source (the wife). There’s also something on More or Less this week suggesting 90% for one dose - although was only half listening while fingerboarding, so not sure if that’s Pfizer or AstraZeneca.
Reports from Israel suggesting that single Pfizer dose only 50% effective....I’d heard 89% today from an NHS source (the wife). There’s also something on More or Less this week suggesting 90% for one dose - although was only half listening while fingerboarding, so not sure if that’s Pfizer or AstraZeneca.
I’d heard 89% today from an NHS source (the wife). There’s also something on More or Less this week suggesting 90% for one dose - although was only half listening while fingerboarding, so not sure if that’s Pfizer or AstraZeneca.
Reports from Israel suggesting that single Pfizer dose only 50% effective....I’d heard 89% today from an NHS source (the wife). There’s also something on More or Less this week suggesting 90% for one dose - although was only half listening while fingerboarding, so not sure if that’s Pfizer or AstraZeneca.
Plus the fact the percentage was always highly likely to come down because the cohort which has had the vaccine, and which the data is based on, is hugely skewed towards the elderly and vulnerable.
Vaccine numbers are shite, not impressed!
Reports from Israel suggesting that single Pfizer dose only 50% effective....
Not sure I understand your point. Could you explain?Reports from Israel suggesting that single Pfizer dose only 50% effective....I’d heard 89% today from an NHS source (the wife). There’s also something on More or Less this week suggesting 90% for one dose - although was only half listening while fingerboarding, so not sure if that’s Pfizer or AstraZeneca.
Plus the fact the percentage was always highly likely to come down because the cohort which has had the vaccine, and which the data is based on, is hugely skewed towards the elderly and vulnerable.
It’ll come out in the wash - but there’s another Q about the wrong choice being made by the govt if (and it’s an if) delaying the second dose has a much bigger than expected effect... (as in much worse protection). We’ll find out - through Israel has vaccinated the highest percentage of its population compared to any other country iirc. UAE is next..
With the usual disclaimers/excuses about not being a scientist and fundamentally not knowing what I'm talking about... :worms:No, seems pretty logical. I’d say the limitation is how developed the data is that the Israel study is based on. From what I’ve read, Israel are giving the second dose at 3 weeks. So if we’re saying that the first dose takes 10 days to 2 weeks to become effective, then the numbers are based on a week of exposure.
As I understand it, the cohort that Pfizer tested the vaccine on will have been drawn from a wide range of different ages and backgrounds, including both relatively young people, the middle aged and the elderly. The effectiveness percentage quoted, of 90%, would be an average value, eg. some will have been almost entirely protected, others will have gained less protection. It seems reasonable to think that the clinically vulnerable /those with weakened immune systems/the elderly would be 'less protected' on average than someone younger with a healthy immune system. Given Israel, like us has rolled its vaccines out to the vulnerable and elderly first and is testing on them, it doesn't hugely surprise me that the effectiveness % being quoted is lower, partly due to barrows' point about when you should start measuring effectiveness after the jab, but also partly because the older and vulnerable will have been less protected from the outset. 50% seems like quite a drop and I suspect barrows is more right than me, but it doesnt seem a like for like comparison to me because the sample will be almost entirely comprised of older, more vulnerable people, whereas the trial group would have been more representative.
This may be complete bollocks so if so call me out!
My view would be it’s far too early to draw conclusions at this stage.
Much better vaccine figures today, nearly 350k.
Much better vaccine figures today, nearly 350k.
I only noticed today - but there’s a 2 day lag in the figures. Today’s increase is actually up to end of 19th (Monday). Might explain the previous two days (weekend?) lower figs.
I hope...
Risk of death from UK variant may by up to 50% higher - scientist
Early evidence suggests the variant of coronavirus that emerged in the UK may be up to 50% more deadly, according to the scientist whose research led to today’s government announcement.
Nick Davies, assistant professor of mathematical modelling at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, told BBC Radio 4’s PM programme the estimate that the risk of death increased by 30% was "uncertain".
"We think it could be anywhere between 10 to 50%, according to our analysis,” he said.
Mr Davies – a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), which feeds into the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) – said it would be very important to get a variety of different streams of evidence, looking at the problem in different ways.
However, he added that “a number of groups have looked at the data in a number of different ways, and unfortunately come to similar conclusions”.
U.K. Covid19 Vaccinations - 1st doses up to 22/01/21
5,383,103 people have now been vaccinated.
A 401,070 increase on yesterday, the highest daily figure to date and above average needed to hit target of 15m by Feb 15th.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EsWYSx_XAAQ5tla?format=jpg&name=large)
(from: https://twitter.com/SharePickers )
and above average needed to hit target of 15m by Feb 15th.
AstraZ having to cut deliveries to EU next month due to production hiccup... hopefully we’re higher up the order que/list.
AstraZ having to cut deliveries to EU next month due to production hiccup... hopefully we’re higher up the order que/list.
😬 I’m sure you didn’t mean this the way it comes across to me! It sounds a little bit ‘fuck everyone else as long as we are alright’
I keep trying to avoid commenting on this page as i find it so depressing and negative, something I am not, but the last graphs got my back up again.
Over 100k deaths in the next three months. More than Double what we have had already ?????
Did this same group do a forecast back in March and is it possible to see it. Guess they were one of those saying 250k would die.
Finally we need a function that allows you to block out topics on here, I just want to look at climbing stuff from now on.
...and so much for the good news bubble!
Theres also going to be an increasing number of people who won’t take it as you move to younger groups... and more people not registered to a GP etc.. this means it’ll end up rattling down through the list of people to get it faster - but isn’t good news for the herd immunity angle.I could be wrong but I don't expect there will be a big shift in people refusing in the younger age groups.
Useful FAQ to help fend off covid deniers, lockdown deniers and anti -vaxers. Tory MP Neil O'Brian (of Twitter scraps with Toby Young fame) is one of the authors.
https://www.covidfaq.co/
his government “did everything we could”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/ons-figures-show-uk-passed-100000-covid-deaths-by-7-januaryWithin the unspoken caveats...Quotehis government “did everything we could”
Shows the level of delusion,.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/ons-figures-show-uk-passed-100000-covid-deaths-by-7-januaryWithin the unspoken caveats...Quotehis government “did everything we could”
Shows the level of delusion,.
"We did everything we could" given our:
- rank incompetence
- lack of imagination
- ideological biases
- disdain for experts
- self imposed brexit shitshow
- enormous commons majority... of reactionary sociopaths
- braindead optimism bias
- inability to look beyond next Thursday's headlines
- crony capitalist agenda
- thinly veiled contempt for the NHS
- etc...
...I guess you could say it was an accurate statement.
Mind you, she did not reply when I emailed that my father and uncle died with Covid, so she is, at least, consistent in her contempt for her constituents.
Basically agree with you TT but - the self employed are in real difficulty. About 3 million unsupported I think. :no:
I emailed Mary Robinson, my MP about this. She did not reply. Mind you, she did not reply when I emailed that my father and uncle died with Covid, so she is, at least, consistent in her contempt for her constituents.
I emailed Mary Robinson, my MP about this. She did not reply. Mind you, she did not reply when I emailed that my father and uncle died with Covid, so she is, at least, consistent in her contempt for her constituents.
I emailed Mary Robinson, my MP about this. She did not reply. Mind you, she did not reply when I emailed that my father and uncle died with Covid, so she is, at least, consistent in her contempt for her constituents.
no update on the gov website - where are you getting figures TT?
311k - better than your number, but still not great.
Yep, about the only thing that can be said about the death figures is at least the daily numbers seem to have levelled off. Imagine we will have to swallow at least another 30-50k deaths in the next few months. Hard to escape the feeling that the autumn decisions were a catastrophic failure of governance. Attempting to blame it all on the new variant doesn't cut it for me.
Of all the things they have done badly, delaying action has been their biggest shortcoming. Doing exactly the same things, only earlier, would have saved a lot of lives.
not just lockdowns also closing borders, restricting travel, quarantining arrivals, restricting access to care homes, etc etc. All left until there was no option available.
It is no use saying, 'We are doing our best.' You have got to succeed in doing what is necessary.
Attempting to blame it all on the new variant doesn't cut it for me.Being blindsided by the new variant was a valid excuse for the rapid spread in Kent and London during the last 2 weeks of November, when nobody knew about it, and maybe the first week of December.
As I understand it there is a quite significant issue with uptake in minority groups due to long standing healthcare inequalities and distrust of govt.
As I understand it there is a quite significant issue with uptake in minority groups due to long standing healthcare inequalities and distrust of govt.
There's also been some nasty shit with anti-vaxxer campaigns targeting ethnic minority communities, building off that existing distrust and alienation: https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7mpkm/anti-vaxxers-are-targeting-ethnic-minority-communities-with-wild-conspiracy-theories
Some impressive stuff from folks organizing in response, though:
https://twitter.com/adilray/status/1353677950550495243
https://takethecovid19vaccine.com/ (info in SO MANY languages)
East London Mosque coming out swinging: https://twitter.com/elondonmosque/status/1352696152773242881
I suspect thats fine in principle, but hard to do in reality.
Also found out this morning that my mum's been invited for hers but hasn't taken it up. She's always tried to avoid taking unneccessary medication (pain relief, antibiotics etc) which is fair enough, but I didn't expect this. Her reasoning is a general suspicion of the Govt and by extension anything they've been involved with. Hoping I can persuade her otherwise.
Anything specific about governments/ this government? Do you know of any friends or peers of her who have had the jab?She knows how much I detest this government so I'm hoping that by having it myself I can persuade her to put that to one side.
Also found out this morning that my mum's been invited for hers but hasn't taken it up. She's always tried to avoid taking unneccessary medication (pain relief, antibiotics etc) which is fair enough, but I didn't expect this. Her reasoning is a general suspicion of the Govt and by extension anything they've been involved with. Hoping I can persuade her otherwise.
Having run events (not vaccinations!!) based on being full with reserve lists - I’m just saying it’s not as simple as it might seem. People are rarely predictable!! So I’ve some sympathy for those organising this!
In Israel I believe they ran a system where anyone without an appointment could hang around in the hope that there'd be a spare jab at the end of the day. Something like this could work; it's no more optimal than giving it to passing NHS staff, but it does have the advantage that you won't eventually run out of people to offer it to.Sorry, struggling with the logic here. You think having people hanging around outside hospitals waiting for spare vaccines is a better (or not worse) approach than giving a second dose to NHS staff working in hospitals treating Covid patients? Couple of thoughts - one practical and one more emotive.
Had a text this morning inviting me to book my vaccination. Very slick booking process and lots of available slots for Saturday morning at a health centre 10mins from my house. Can't fault it
I hope this is genuine, but as a general word of warning, there is a scam text going around at the moment inviting people for vaccinationsYeh I was surprised it came through by text. But definitely genuine. I'm in the vulnerable group so was expecting something through.
Several responses to your post Stabbsy.
The first is that using spare vaccines at vaccine centre to NHS staff or whoever is there by chance does not mean giving it to staff in hospitals treating COVID patients. As more people get vaccinated it increasingly means whoever is around and not vaccinated.
In time, it is gets more and more like my suggestion, except the pool of potential recipients will get so small vaccine is wasted.I agree with this and agree that some alternate approach is needed once NHS staff have been dealt with, but I think the Israel suggestion is a poor one - no prioritisation and potential of people hanging around a hospital on the off chance of getting a vaccine. As I said, have an on call list as they did (I think) in Glossop. Also sounds like what Offwidth is referring to in Nottingham.
Second, you missed my point that it would be fine, no preferable, to vaccinate NHS staff as a priority, but you need a backup system in place, so why not run a system like the one Ive described.That wasn't how I interpreted your post, so apologies. Your first post on the topic started with "I think I'm in favour of the restrictions posted above" and that was what I was responding to as I'm not in favour of those restrictions for the two reasons I posted.
Also found out this morning that my mum's been invited for hers but hasn't taken it up. She's always tried to avoid taking unneccessary medication (pain relief, antibiotics etc) which is fair enough, but I didn't expect this. Her reasoning is a general suspicion of the Govt and by extension anything they've been involved with. Hoping I can persuade her otherwise.
My Parents in Law, both in their 70s are showing signs of dithering when asked when they are getting theirs. One is a smoker, with a history of respiratory issues. My Brother-in-law is asthmatic and he's made it clear to them he will avoid contact with them until either they get a vaccine or he does, so hopefully they will see sense.
Her reasoning is a general suspicion of the Govt and by extension anything they've been involved with.
She's always tried to avoid taking unneccessary medication (pain relief, antibiotics etc) which is fair enough, but I didn't expect this.
sean, I know it's an emotive subject for you, but I completely and totally agree with you. The fact that there is even the remotest chance that their grandchildren would lost them because they are believing some trumped up bullshit fed to them by the Daily Mail really has us raging against them, especially my brother in law who is desperate to get his, and get on with a normal life.
I think that was the issue - the govt have been so desperate to manipulate data relating to every aspect of their response (PPE supply figures, testing numbers etc) that my mum has extended that to the vaccine and was suspicious of them putting pressure on manufacturers to manipulate safety or efficacy data. A lesson in why building trust in govt is important I guess, especially at times like this.Her reasoning is a general suspicion of the Govt and by extension anything they've been involved with.Honestly, fair enough -- maybe worth pointing out that the Govt hasn't had anything to do with the vaccine development process except for throwing money at it.
She has the flu jab every year and was a nurse earlier in her career so it's not vaccines per se she had a problem with. Just this one, given the circumstances.She's always tried to avoid taking unneccessary medication (pain relief, antibiotics etc) which is fair enough, but I didn't expect this.Maybe it could be worth pointing out that vaccines aren't "drugs"?
sean, I know it's an emotive subject for you, but I completely and totally agree with you. The fact that there is even the remotest chance that their grandchildren would lost them because they are believing some trumped up bullshit fed to them by the Daily Mail really has us raging against them, especially my brother in law who is desperate to get his, and get on with a normal life.
I’m not sure what to think about the whole EU/UK vaccine supply row/bunfight.It did make me laugh when Johnson claimed the other day not to want to see any vaccine nationalism...having signed a contract with AZ to supply the first 100million doses exclusively to the UK and refusing to allow any doses to be diverted from the UK until their rollout has been achieved.
It’s not surprised me to see a little bit of smug - we got there first - nationalism from the UK (which isn’t pretty).
I’m not sure what to think about the whole EU/UK vaccine supply row/bunfight.
It’s not surprised me to see a little bit of smug - we got there first - nationalism from the UK (which isn’t pretty). But I’m surprised how the EU seem to have nearly thrown all their toys out of the pram in response....
What a mess.
All I'd say about the UK / EU vaccine situation is try to imagine the current situation 180 degrees reversed, and be honest with yourself about what you'd be saying about the UK. Apply it to the EU. All good.Funnily enough I was thinking exactly that earlier. If the production issues were in the UK facilities and not the EU, would the UK govt just let it slide with AZ while their pre-ordered doses didn’t turn up on time? Or would they be kicking up a fuss? And also would they just sit happily watching a different vaccine produced in the UK carry on being exported elsewhere, rather than say “we’ll have some of that thank you very much”?
Funnily enough I was thinking exactly that earlier. If the production issues were in the UK facilities and not the EU, would the UK govt just let it slide with AZ while their pre-ordered doses didn’t turn up on time? Or would they be kicking up a fuss? And also would they just sit happily watching a different vaccine produced in the UK carry on being exported elsewhere, rather than say “we’ll have some of that thank you very much”?
All I'd say about the UK / EU vaccine situation is try to imagine the current situation 180 degrees reversed, and be honest with yourself about what you'd be saying about the UK. Apply it to the EU. All good.Funnily enough I was thinking exactly that earlier. If the production issues were in the UK facilities and not the EU, would the UK govt just let it slide with AZ while their pre-ordered doses didn’t turn up on time? Or would they be kicking up a fuss? And also would they just sit happily watching a different vaccine produced in the UK carry on being exported elsewhere, rather than say “we’ll have some of that thank you very much”?
You're suggesting that ramp-up production issues at an EU plant is the main cause of the EU's problems with vaccine supply and roll-out?You’re conflating lots of things here. Vaccine approval date is irrelevant to this as the vaccines in both cases were pre-ordered for delivery whether they were approved or not. As is the decision to use one dose or two. Irrelevant to this.
But nothing to do with its 3-month slower procurement or 2-month slower approval programme.. And that the UK's early procurement policy, early approval of vaccine, decision to use one dose, or roll-out of vaccinations, should not be acknowledged.. Interesting bias!
All I'd say about the UK / EU vaccine situation is try to imagine the current situation 180 degrees reversed, and be honest with yourself about what you'd be saying about the UK. Apply it to the EU. All good.Funnily enough I was thinking exactly that earlier. If the production issues were in the UK facilities and not the EU, would the UK govt just let it slide with AZ while their pre-ordered doses didn’t turn up on time? Or would they be kicking up a fuss? And also would they just sit happily watching a different vaccine produced in the UK carry on being exported elsewhere, rather than say “we’ll have some of that thank you very much”?
Well that escalated fast! The EU has pressed the ‘nuclear’ button of invoking article 16 of the NI border agreement. Stopping the free border between NI and RoI - in this case for vaccines.
Unionists are now frothing at the mouth saying we should invoke it for everything.
All of this really isn’t a good look EU...
Well done Boris! Finally something worked.The other example of an acquaintance being called up to run a huge pandemic response program didn’t go so well. It looks like Johnson just managed to phone the right person with Kate Bingham. So a 50% success rate on that front :lol:
Maybe “the only thing he’s done right” - rather than enduring legacy.
If you throw enough shit at a fan, some gets through :D
But it sounds like me booking mine has convinced her and she's going on Monday :2thumbsup:
More excellent jabbage today - 487k across the UKMe included. If the rest of the centres are as well organised as the one I went to I can see why they’re achieving those numbers. Literally walk in walk out like the flu jab last year. You book a time slot but it’s fairly irrelevant as you just go through in the order you turn up so no hanging around. Amazing effort from the staff and volunteers.
Seen a couple of tweets suggesting over 600k jabs in the last 24 hours! 👏👏big jump in second doses too, ~10k
C.1% population per day
Seen a couple of tweets suggesting over 600k jabs in the last 24 hours! 👏👏
C.1% population per day
Interesting.
As an aside, do some parents regularly volunteer their 12 year old kids for medical trials?
An average of 411,791 per day needed to hit the target of 15m by Feb 15th
I signed up yesterday as they are looking for people in their 50s in Nottingham for mixed vaccine trials. Lets wait and see.
Prof. Van Tam has said that there's no reason to think that the South African variant will become dominant in the UK as it doesn't have a distinct transmissibility advantage. If the current vaccines reduce transmission of the South African variant less than the other strains, how is that not an advantage? Really hope we're not looking at lockdown #4 over the summer whilst we wait for distribution of new vaccines. Also, what happened to the "6 week" turn-around to produce vaccines to new strains? That seems to have mutated into 9 months.He was only talking about the next few months. If its natural transmissibility is no more than (or less than) the Kent variant, it will take much longer to become dominant than if it were naturally more transmissible as well. I expect it will still be quite a while before enough people in lower age groups are vaccinated that the SA variant starts to take over, assuming that the vaccine gives decent protection from transmission of the Kent variant but not the SA one. VanTam was obviously focusing most of what he said in the press conference on the next few months - he kept repeating that the people needed protection from the immediate threat.
Thanks, didn't see the broadcast and the news source I read didn't include the context of the next few months. Still can't help but feel that this is more of an issue than is currently being reported.VanTam fairly clearly sees the longer term way forward from this autumn as regular (maybe annual?) booster shots for high risk groups to overcome changing variants of the disease. He made the direct analogy to how flu is managed at least twice. For me the challenge with that will be keeping cases in the population not getting booster shots low enough that new variants don't pop up too fast. And managing international travel, obviously. I agree it seems a pretty big issue. But to be fair the press conference today was really all about reiterating the importance of people taking up the current vaccine despite all the negative headlines about variaNTS, it's probably not sensible to read too much in to long term strategy.
VanTam fairly clearly sees the longer term way forward from this autumn as regular (maybe annual?) booster shots for high risk groups to overcome changing variants of the disease. He made the direct analogy to how flu is managed at least twice. For me the challenge with that will be keeping cases in the population not getting booster shots low enough that new variants don't pop up too fast.
I fear the same Ru. The vaccine-variant arms race and the response lag look like a recipe for prolonged pain. Hope I'm wrong.
the mutation tweaks just sounds like a kind of software update type concept.
There was a vaccine expert on R5 the other night saying that there's a different / lighter touch regime for variants of vaccines / boosters.
Didn't get or understand the details, but effectively they're just changing the RNA(?) that links to the "spike" protein in line with the virus mutation.
Kinda makes sense - these vaccines were by definition totally new in concept, but if the mutation tweaks just sounds like a kind of software update type concept.
I fear the same Ru. The vaccine-variant arms race and the response lag look like a recipe for prolonged pain. Hope I'm wrong.
But - timing and summer is in our favour... If the SA variant impact can be managed/slowed until April/May then we might well be OK for getting updated jabs for Oct without too many problems...
You’re forgetting the Moss side variant that’s bubbled up in Manchester.
It’s funny that the Guardians pro lockdown brainwashing of the middle classes / liberal elite and their Twitter hit squad including the good old George bully boy Monibot choose to raise concerns about exactly the mental health crisis that they are serving to generate. There are some true independent voices on these matters including Alison Pollock who speaks to reason and supports pro-social public health policies. Lockdown has led to a wide ranging effect on mental health mostly in which previously well but vulnerable people are tipped over into being unwell while there is an alleviation of shame and guilt for those already ‘locked down’ by their mental health prior to the pandemic
It’s funny that the Guardians pro lockdown brainwashing of the middle classes / liberal elite and their Twitter hit squad including the good old George bully boy Monibot choose to raise concerns about exactly the mental health crisis that they are serving to generate. There are some true independent voices on these matters including Alison Pollock who speaks to reason and supports pro-social public health policies. Lockdown has led to a wide ranging effect on mental health mostly in which previously well but vulnerable people are tipped over into being unwell while there is an alleviation of shame and guilt for those already ‘locked down’ by their mental health prior to the pandemic
Thought it better to respond to this here. Allyson Pollock does talk sense about the importance of public health and the incompetence of some of the outsourced services. She writes for The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/profile/allysonpollock). Lockdown is shit for some people’s mental health, losing family or friends is also shit.
In other news, I had the Pfizer vaccine yesterday (because I’m old). Got the text the day before, great atmosphere at the centre with a mix of jolly volunteers and NHS staff, all desperate to reassure me (“no questions, just stick the needle in”). Very competent and efficient, in stark contrast to my dealings with track-and-trace. Felt a bit tired and cold-y in the evening but fine now other than having ‘DOMS’ in that shoulder. I’ll let you know if I turn purple or grow horns.
In other news, I had the Pfizer vaccine yesterday (because I’m old).
It’s funny that the Guardians pro lockdown brainwashing of the middle classes / liberal elite and their Twitter hit squad including the good old George bully boy Monibot choose to raise concerns about exactly the mental health crisis that they are serving to generate. There are some true independent voices on these matters including Alison Pollock who speaks to reason and supports pro-social public health policies. Lockdown has led to a wide ranging effect on mental health mostly in which previously well but vulnerable people are tipped over into being unwell while there is an alleviation of shame and guilt for those already ‘locked down’ by their mental health prior to the pandemic
Thought it better to respond to this here. Allyson Pollock does talk sense about the importance of public health and the incompetence of some of the outsourced services. She writes for The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/profile/allysonpollock). Lockdown is shit for some people’s mental health, losing family or friends is also shit.
In other news, I had the Pfizer vaccine yesterday (because I’m old). Got the text the day before, great atmosphere at the centre with a mix of jolly volunteers and NHS staff, all desperate to reassure me (“no questions, just stick the needle in”). Very competent and efficient, in stark contrast to my dealings with track-and-trace. Felt a bit tired and cold-y in the evening but fine now other than having ‘DOMS’ in that shoulder. I’ll let you know if I turn purple or grow horns.
It does have clear political links with lockdown denial being an unscientific campaign from many right wing commentators and MPs.
The subject has no class links I'm aware of given a lot more middle class people I know read centre right or right wing papers than the Guardian and its ilk...just look at sales figues. It does have clear political links with lockdown denial being an unscientific campaign from many right wing commentators and MPs.
Ask Chomsky, he’s getting a bit long in the tooth tho. Who knows Brian Moore might be set to replace him as a radical thinker for the common man.
The definition which I was referring to I’ve pasted below. Also Chomsky has a good point re the media right? I love the bit about how it starts in kindergarten and is all about subordination.
A commoner, also known as the common man, commoners, the common people or the masses, is an ordinary person in a community or nation who does not have any significant social status, especially one who is a member of neither royalty, nobility, the clergy, nor any part of the aristocracy.
By liberal elite I mean this definition -
the group of people in a society who are considered as having a high level of education and liberal ideas
Good visualisation of hospitalisations since last March. 80% of them were over-80 age.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuCj_qEXEAEsRyW?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
https://twitter.com/SharePickers/status/1360267877681627149
Good visualisation.....
Irritatingly, opening up is likely to lag, though. Too much mutation risk and the threat of wasting the vaccine progress. May. We might be fully open, if still distanced by May, if I had to guess.
I would be classed as liberal elite and therefore form part of the intended audience for the messages pushed by the Guardian and or if I was American the New York Times for example.
8th March is a reasonable date at the moment.
I think it might be better if they do it some sort of stages though
8th March is a reasonable date at the moment.
Absolutely.I think it might be better if they do it some sort of stages though
That is the issue.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/13/world/covid-19-coronavirus
This seems to have passed the UK press by....
UK Kent variant may lead to 40-60% more hospitalisations (and increased deaths) compared to the original variant. nYT base this on a UK report....
Possibly of interest to anyone who signed up to participate in the Biobank studies.
On correlation between vit D3 and CV-19:
https://youtu.be/au6FKi8aAsA
As someone who is not a teacher and so has no skin in the game, from what I've read I feel like 8th March is a reasonable date at the moment. I think it might be better if they do it some sort of stages though, which might well be what ends up happening.
By offwidths criteria we would be waiting until some time in mid summer before opening anything if we are waiting for hospitalisations to drop to minimal levels. That is a pretty unacceptable societal cost for me, and that's from someone who agrees with the lock down policy.
By offwidths criteria we would be waiting until some time in mid summer before opening anything if we are waiting for hospitalisations to drop to minimal levels. That is a pretty unacceptable societal cost for me, and that's from someone who agrees with the lock down policy.
Totally get your reluctance, which suggests the govt need to improve their messaging (now there's a shock!)
Out of interest, what would your preferred route back be? Seems like at the moment now the most vulnerable have been jabbed the government is content to allow a certain level of virus prevalence in exchange for schools going back. Other societal unlocking will be v slow to allow this to happen. I have to say I don't have a huge problem with this approach as I am profoundly unconvinced by the "zero covid" strategy (which is actually nothing of the sort) preferred by Devi Sridhar et al. I was a big fan of this last summer but now we have a vaccine I don't think it will fly.
Yeah that's bollocks, sorry dunny, I didn't intend to be glib. Do you have any timeline on when you might be offered one?
Ged; was chatting about this earlier and came the conclusion vaccinating teachers would probably solve a lot of the safety issues, if not the transmission ones. I'll have a think about the rest and respond in a bit more detail.
the headlines cause a solid rant this morning...I'm not overly fussed I just don't like lies.For the last 5 or 6 years I’ve been woken up by R4 every single morning, listened to the 08:10 slot, and also flicked around various news websites throughout the day. Until about a month ago when I just couldn’t hack it any more because of the lies and more especially them not being called out.
The whole "most vulnerable have been jabbed" is slightly grating, as being one of those people according to the rules I can't get a jab. I doubt I am the only one. Stats 101 for the government should include non putting out absolutes.
The whole "most vulnerable have been jabbed" is slightly grating, as being one of those people according to the rules I can't get a jab. I doubt I am the only one. Stats 101 for the government should include non putting out absolutes.
Emotions aside, the abstract the question of who to vaccinate when is a fascinating problem, which in reality likely has not got one 'correct' answer.
appreciate why teachers might consider wider opening as a bad idea until the prevalence of the virus really is low.
...
allow the numbers to drop to that level? I just don't think that would be politically possible, even if scientifically that would be the ideal scenario.
If anything numbers appear to coming down more quickly than in the original lockdown despite rules being less strict and population movement/interactions being noticeable higher.Are lockdown rules less strict this time round?
Good visualisation.....
I linked this Independent SAGE report a couple of weeks ago showing over 80s are only a small proportion of those in ICU (as they largely don't benefit from the invasive procedures). The statistic of 80% of hospitalisations being over 80 is just plain wrong. The relevant bit of this weekly report starts at 10 and a half minutes in and lasts about 3 minutes and it shows clearly why we have a while yet before hospital pressures will drop.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKTHqyFfzFs&feature=youtu.be
Good visualisation.....
I linked this Independent SAGE report a couple of weeks ago showing over 80s are only a small proportion of those in ICU (as they largely don't benefit from the invasive procedures). The statistic of 80% of hospitalisations being over 80 is just plain wrong. The relevant bit of this weekly report starts at 10 and a half minutes in and lasts about 3 minutes and it shows clearly why we have a while yet before hospital pressures will drop.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKTHqyFfzFs&feature=youtu.be
Yep just checked this on the NHS England stats page.
Age group 75-85+ (no group for 'over 80') accounted for 40% of hospital admissions on the most recent day's data.
Age group 65 - 85+ accounted for 60%of hospital admissions.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
Over 80s accounted for 48% of deaths on the most recent day's data.
Ages 60 to 80+ accounted for 91% of deaths on the same date.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/02/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-14-February-2021.xlsx
All those over 70 have now been offered (and over 9 out of 10 accepted) a vaccine. Plus the 'clinically most vulnerable' in lower age groups. And the over-65s are now being offered vaccines as of today.
Based on those stats, plus the evidence for vaccine efficacy in preventing the most serious illness, why shouldn't hospitalisations (thus pressure, relative to peak) and deaths drop dramatically within the next 2-3 weeks?
Are lockdown rules less strict this time round?
What is your basis for saying population movement/interactions are noticeably higher?
If anything numbers appear to coming down more quickly than in the original lockdown despite rules being less strict and population movement/interactions being noticeable higher. Does anybody have any view as to why this is?
Cheers Stubbs.
From my perspective less shops/cafes are open, there are less people around, people are in smaller groups and maintaining distance far more and waaaaaaay more mask wearing going on.
I’m not sure the rules are less strict in any significant way, maybe just a bit more refined/defined.
Could you not exercise outside with one other person during previous lockdown as well? Genuine question, I can’t remember, but I definitely saw lots of people exercising with at least one a n other person not from their household during previous lockdown. I’d say, purely anecdotally, more so than this time round. Hence my questions, my local evidence/feeling is that lockdown is being better observed now. As ever YMMV, just wondered if there was a stat/study basis for the lack of compliance claim.
As ever YMMV, just wondered if there was a stat/study basis for the lack of compliance claim.
Eh? Lockdown 1 was like a ghost town here.... next to no traffic any time of day - curtains twitching if you went out etc....
If anything numbers appear to coming down more quickly than in the original lockdown despite rules being less strict and population movement/interactions being noticeable higher. Does anybody have any view as to why this is?
I think this is placing the cart before the horse; it isn't that this lockdown is going well, just that rules were so lax over Christmas and caused such a high number of cases that the "lockdown lite" we have gone into has looked effective in comparison to the massive amount of household mixing that occured over the festive period, and in the rammed shops that led up to this.
If anything numbers appear to coming down more quickly than in the original lockdown despite rules being less strict and population movement/interactions being noticeable higher. Does anybody have any view as to why this is?
I think this is placing the cart before the horse; it isn't that this lockdown is going well, just that rules were so lax over Christmas and caused such a high number of cases that the "lockdown lite" we have gone into has looked effective in comparison to the massive amount of household mixing that occured over the festive period, and in the rammed shops that led up to this.
Not trying to make any claims about why this might be happening just asking the question. Had thought about possible hangover from December mixing but wouldn't we then have expected the trend to have changed by late Jan/Feb?
Really wanted to highlight how weak our knowledge in this area seems to be. And when the government says it is 'following the science' that's pretty meaningless without admitting to where the uncertainty in the science is as.well.
Ok, pure spitballin’ speculation here but... from memory you’re in the “suburbs”( Didsbury??) soooo.... maybe people aren’t coming out into the “sticks” so much due (perhaps) to a combination of weather and a clearer(? Relative term...) and seemingly more enforced (lots of media reports of fines...) limit on travel to exercise. So you see more people locally as they haven’t all driven out to Ladybower to get their exercise walking shoulder to shoulder with countless other people... All I can say is Hathersage and surrounding area has seemed noticeably quieter this lockdown as far as I can tell (and less businesses are open).Cheers Stubbs.
From my perspective...
Blah blah blah...
...wondered if there was a stat/study basis for the lack of compliance claim.
Eh? Lockdown 1 was like a ghost town here.... next to no traffic any time of day - curtains twitching if you went out etc....
All I can say is Hathersage and surrounding area has seemed noticeably quieter this lockdown as far as I can tell (and less businesses are open).
Were you already in the Peak for the first lockdown Nik?
So lockdown 1 here:
- it was an event when a car came through the village, people very reticent to leave their own properties for any reason and certainly weren’t driving to exercise. All car parks closed at walking places (reservoirs etc.)
- local market town completely deserted, only supermarkets open and they all had v strict limits on numbers in store at once, one way system etc.
- only business that seemed to be ongoing was construction, all other offices completely closed with people working at home.
Lockdown 3
- traffic through village prob 75% usual.
- people driving into village to walk and cycle, other car parks at beauty spots etc. well used.
- most pubs, restaurants and cafes in town open for take out so lots of people milling about (despite the cold compared to first lockdown).
- lots of people I know being forced back into offices under the auspices of ‘Covid safe’ working practices.
- way more kids in school that previous and also nurseries a s child care open and available.
There are about 66 million people in the UK, someone has to be first and someone has to be last. People have been split into rough groups of priority, some people will end up a bit up the queue and some a bit down, but so what. As if 60-odd million (less the kids obvs) are all going to be vaccinated in the perfect order. Add more people to the next cohort, but then put the target date back to allow for this. What’s the gain?? The Saturday Guardian had a deeply disappointing article featuring a range of entitled middle class squeaky wheels bleating about why they should be next in line. Crap stupid journalism is available on all media platforms...
None of that is directed at you specifically TomTom, just general comment.
The government's traffic level statistics shows that, while transport levels are still down on normal levels, they are much busier than during lockdown 1.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/959864/COVID-19-transport-use-statistics.ods (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/959864/COVID-19-transport-use-statistics.ods)
Everything I see locally and among friends points towards individual observance of lockdown 3 being quite good. But a lot more people are in 'covid secure' work and school than in lockdown 1 so from that perspective, lockdown is less severe. Shopping is also less restricted.
I don't think there is a single reason why cases are dropping fast this time, I suspect it is a combination of all of the following plus other things that I didn't think of:
- Greater immunity among the population due to natural immunity and the first early signs of vaccines taking effect. We should see this effect increase rapidly over the next few weeks due to vaccines.
- Much better testing. In the beginning, there was next to no testing of asymptomatic/mild cases. These are the cases that drive transmission as they are likely to be the healthier, most active people who are least likely to isolate. Mass lateral flow tests miss a lot of positives and have the potential to lead to compliance problems due to false negatives, but they also pick up a lot of additional positives among people who wouldn't have been tested otherwise so they may be helping to cut transmission routes.
- Mask wearing. Last spring, I rarely saw another person wearing a mask. Now, most people I see are wearing one even when they walk outdoors around town.
- Test and trace. It's still far from the level it needs to be but it's a lot better than the nothing that we had during March/April.
- Better covid measures in workplaces, care homes, hospitals etc. Again, far from perfect but a lot better than before.
- Burnout among the most active people? I think this is less certain but I suspect that during each outbreak, the virus is able to rapidly spread among the population who have the most interactions. After a few weeks, a lot of the most active people in the area will have been infected already so future transmissions are harder won.
It is promising that cases are dropping rapidly despite the extra interactions from last spring, despite the vaccines only just starting to have an effect and despite the dominant strain being more transmissible than last spring. This gives me a lot of hope that we are capable of opening up soon to some degree without making things too much worse against these variants.
But this has to be weighed up against the emergence of new variants. We are already seeing a number of worrying mutations despite the fact that there has so far been little evolutionary pressure for the virus to mutate. A half vaccinated society provides that pressure and opening up too much too early is the perfect way to maximise the chances of worse variants emerging. This is the strongest reason for governments to take a cautious approach to reopening.
A revised definition of keyworker status had passed me by. When did this happen?
I'm apparently a key worker now so get out there and clap for me, you miserable low-lifes.
I'd add transmission outdoors must be very low or all those protests in various countries would have linked to clear major infection events.
Thought this was a good and convincing piece: https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2021/02/how-uk-could-vaccinate-every-adult-mid-may-and-end-lockdown .
Thought this was a good and convincing piece: https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2021/02/how-uk-could-vaccinate-every-adult-mid-may-and-end-lockdown .
I'll bite :)
Its a good argument but.... Its based on what we know at the moment. This all holds true if we think of CV19 as behaving much like a bad flu (which has been a mistake in the past.)
I'm gonna go all Rumsfeld on y'all... There are known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.
For CV19 - there are precious few of the first (Known knowns), plenty of the second (known unknowns) and who knows about the third category.. for Flu - we know most of the first two - and so can thus manage it much better. With Covid, we still dont know with much certainty that much about its transmission (we know alot more than we did - but there is still alot of uncertainty in the science I'd argue). There are a couple of massive known unknowns. Including - the longevity of the vaccine, how effective it is to mutations, how effective updates/boosters are for this. Further - an important known unknown on our horizon is Long Covid. This could be a massive future issue for well over a million people - and thus a considerable drain on both economy and the workforce... so even with the vaccinate everyone plan, people will still get it and get LC - as well as the existing sufferers...
(edit - and then there are the unknown unknowns..)
Put simply - I dont think we know enough about it to be able to make such predictions. Thats a job for journalists :D
It seems to involve a lot of assumptions, notably:
a)100% take-up (or at least over 90%) of the vaccines in all age groups. This requires ignoring all surveys and data on some of the groups who've already been offered the vaccine -- we're already looking at only 80% for NHS staff and arounds two-thirds for social care staff.
and
b) steady and continuous increase in vaccination rates, with no logistical limits on either the ability to keep expanding the vaccine rollout programme or on vaccine supply.
Whereas we're currently looking at a drop in vaccine supply across the UK before we get back to current levels at the start of March:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-56025767
I'm very hopeful we will start to see a rapid fall in Covid deaths and hospitalisations, but the article's into "perfectly spherical cow" territory if it's trying to make realistic predictions about what we might manage when.
Just saying the article seems to be based on the limited information we know at the moment - not what we are going to find out!
I mentioned this a few weeks back - but there are a couple of reports showing that once you get down to the 20-30yo's the uptake rate may be in the 60-70% rate..
I remember - but still don't particularly see why it matters in that age group to be honest.
I remember - but still don't particularly see why it matters in that age group to be honest.
It might not to that age groups mortality - but some will still get it, some will get LC - and it keeps the virus in circulation...
Though thats possibly a moot point if borders are kept open and its still ripping/pottering around the rest of the world...
It seems to involve a lot of assumptions, notably:
a)100% take-up (or at least over 90%) of the vaccines in all age groups. This requires ignoring all surveys and data on some of the groups who've already been offered the vaccine -- we're already looking at only 80% for NHS staff and arounds two-thirds for social care staff.
and
b) steady and continuous increase in vaccination rates, with no logistical limits on either the ability to keep expanding the vaccine rollout programme or on vaccine supply.
Whereas we're currently looking at a drop in vaccine supply across the UK before we get back to current levels at the start of March:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-56025767
I'm very hopeful we will start to see a rapid fall in Covid deaths and hospitalisations, but the article's into "perfectly spherical cow" territory if it's trying to make realistic predictions about what we might manage when.
Just saying the article seems to be based on the limited information we know at the moment - not what we are going to find out!
And dangerous, given the Statesman's readership among the sort of Tories currently demanding set dates (the sooner the better) for all restrictions to be removed.
This optimism assumes the UK’s borders will be adequately controlled and that the risk of vaccine-evading variants is effectively eliminated by doing so.Ignoring the probability of vaccine evading variants emerging in the UK, our red-list only quarantine system is fatally flawed.
Believe it or not, I'm actually pretty optimistic about this whole thing right now. We should start seeing a drop-off in hospitalizations and deaths soon, and be able to start lifting restrictions in the summer. And in the longer term, we might well be able to wrangle this into something where maybe vulnerable people get booster shots every year and it's no bigger deal than flu. Maybe there'll be a "bad Covid winter" from time to time and we all get advised to wear masks on the bus for a few months.I'm optimistic about where we stand against our current dominant strains. I'm pessimistic about our ability to prevent new variants emerging in the UK and our ability to prevent importing new variants from elsewhere. I think there is a route from where we are now that would allow a relatively normal summer with a relatively low risk of a vaccine escaping variant becoming dominant in the UK before an effective booster becomes available. I'm not at all confident that we will achieve this.
I think I'm not -- I have the impression the NS sometimes leans into a "contrarian"/quasi-libertarian vibe. But I am not a regular reader and have no stats on their readership so I apologize if I'm maligning them!
Latest on outdoor risks:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/19/how-the-beach-super-spreader-myth-can-inform-uks-future-covid-response
Latest on outdoor risks:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/19/how-the-beach-super-spreader-myth-can-inform-uks-future-covid-response
There were also suggestions that the initial direction of the App's development was also poorly considered. (e.g. originally, deliberately, not based on the Apple/Google framework)
64. For these reasons, a significant proportion of the population could still be infected, either because they have not been vaccinated or because the vaccine is not effective for them. This is illustrated by Figure 7. This could mean that some measures to limit transmission are still needed after all adults have been offered a vaccine. These could include guidance such as “hands, face, space”, maintaining the Test, Trace and Isolate system and controls at the border (see chapter 4). The extent to which such measures will be required after all adults have been vaccinated is still unknown. As set out in chapter 3, the Government is exploring what measures may be required.
The argument was never that the App was "useless". More that the money spent on the centralisation of contact tracing may have been more cost-effective spent supporting/expanding existing LA contact tracing teams.
There were also suggestions that the initial direction of the App's development was also poorly considered. (e.g. originally, deliberately, not based on the Apple/Google framework)
64. For these reasons, a significant proportion of the population could still be infected, either because they have not been vaccinated or because the vaccine is not effective for them. This is illustrated by Figure 7. This could mean that some measures to limit transmission are still needed after all adults have been offered a vaccine. These could include guidance such as “hands, face, space”, maintaining the Test, Trace and Isolate system and controls at the border (see chapter 4). The extent to which such measures will be required after all adults have been vaccinated is still unknown. As set out in chapter 3, the Government is exploring what measures may be required.
Yes - there will be a percentage of the population who won't or can't be vaccinated. Its an issue thats being explored a bit (directly and indirectly) with a guardian article yesterday (hold yer horses WonkySpanner!) about a two tier society - split along vaccination lines that coincided with ethnic/financial groups.. Article in the MEN too this morning about why certain areas of Greater Manchester have such persistently high rates... So if much of this percentage (of non vaccinated people) is concentrated in certain groups (social/ethnic/both) in certain areas of the UK... In some places it simply won't disappear.
The quoted statement reads a bit like a catch all paragraph in a contract terms and conditions....
There were also suggestions that the initial direction of the App's development was also poorly considered. (e.g. originally, deliberately, not based on the Apple/Google framework)
No suggestion really, i think it's a fact and anyone not directly involved would tend to agree. And for "poorly considered" substitute "fucking stupid".
An interesting letter in the Lancet
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00193-8/fulltext?rss%3Dyes
So as per my posts on B3 from here: https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603070.html#msg603070 (https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603070.html#msg603070)
and here:
://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603488.html#msg603488 (https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,30489.msg603488.html#msg603488)
There's now more evidence to back this up.
Preclinical research on NR and its role in covid-19 infected cells has now been released today in pre-print form, available here: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.047480v3
Note my disclaimers - I'm a shareholder in Chromadex (which are up 22% on this news)
Further research adding evidence to the B3 / NAD+ hypothesis.
https://twitter.com/FehrLab/status/1260342672688119810 (https://twitter.com/FehrLab/status/1260342672688119810)
Update on this. The next pre-clinical study was released last night US time. It reinforces the hypothesis that's been building around NAD depletion leading to worse outcomes from covid-19 infection; and the role of NAD augmentation using NR to slow virus replication.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chromadex-announces-study-results-highlighting-103600635.html
These are great times to be a mouse.
Human study coming soon..
(I'm an investor, I'm biased)
Something a bit more practical than whinging about how shit the world is...
Following my posts in March, April and July about vitamin B3 being possibly effective both as a prophylactic and a treatment for covid - results from a phase 2 human study in covid patients were released this week which add more evidence to the mouse studies, cell studies and original hypothesis. Trial was open label.. but with a placebo control. Shows 30% reduction in recovery time in patients with covid. Other compounds in the mix as well as B3.
(disclaimer: investor in Chromodex, manufacturer of Nigen).
MEN article flagging up the north south divide in stagnant and falling Covid cases...
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/north-south-divide-covid-rates-19918490
I suspect if the HSE were able to classify COVID outbreaks at work as serious rather than merely significant Leicester’s rates would drop rapidly.
What is more serious than death, anyway??
What is more serious than death, anyway??
I see, thanks. Yes, I would be astonished if the high case rate wasn't connected to workplace transmission. It is striking how much lower the case rates are in the leafier suburban areas in the south east of the city for example.
You should only make a report under RIDDOR when one of the following circumstances applies:
...
a person at work (a worker) has been diagnosed as having COVID-19 attributed to an occupational exposure to coronavirus. This must be reported as a case of disease
a worker dies as a result of occupational exposure to coronavirus.
Sorry to be unclear, typing on my phone. I have not read of any workplace closures by HSE, though TT may be ahead of me there.
There is a national obsession with death and covid death. The government and MSM pump it out. They act like abusive parents looking to sanction, punish and control on one hand and share in a lie of empathy and understanding of grief and loss on the other. Deeply disturbing eh
There is a national obsession with death and covid death.
A great example of polarised thinking there. It’s a good job the poor and marginalised have got you guys and the BBC to highlight their plight.
For the sake of parity maybe the BBC could deliver all sorts of daily death tolls from heart disease and stroke to the latest US / U.K. caused civilian collateral in Syria.
The very fact that we have a war criminal leading the charge on vaccine passports must raise at least an eyebrow? Non of this is covid denial or anti vax it’s simply contextualising the problem.
The uk’s and western cultures relationship with health, death and dying is being used by MSM and the government to fuel fear, leading to further misery, isolation and ill health in the communities it claims to be helping.
We have large amounts of people living in the U.K. traumatised by the policies and actions of the same people now claiming to ‘care’. No wonder trust is low. I care not for the guardian, the mail or the bbc nor do I care about qanon or 5G.
For those who aren't aware, Dolly was a friend of one of the lead scientists at Vanderbilt who developed the Moderna vaccine and donated $1m to the early stage research:
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/nov/17/dolly-parton-partly-funded-moderna-covid-vaccine-research (https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/nov/17/dolly-parton-partly-funded-moderna-covid-vaccine-research)
For those who aren't aware, Dolly was a friend of one of the lead scientists at Vanderbilt who developed the Moderna vaccine and donated $1m to the early stage research:
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/nov/17/dolly-parton-partly-funded-moderna-covid-vaccine-research (https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/nov/17/dolly-parton-partly-funded-moderna-covid-vaccine-research)
Donated or invested? It seems she's popped up just in time as the likes of Texas are reversing the mask mandate and opening all businesses
For those who aren't aware, Dolly was a friend of one of the lead scientists at Vanderbilt who developed the Moderna vaccine and donated $1m to the early stage research:
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/nov/17/dolly-parton-partly-funded-moderna-covid-vaccine-research (https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/nov/17/dolly-parton-partly-funded-moderna-covid-vaccine-research)
Donated or invested? It seems she's popped up just in time as the likes of Texas are reversing the mask mandate and opening all businesses
And your all seeing eye knows all.
Human motivations are complex, curiosity about them is ok, the cult of Mother Teresa* being an interesting example.
sigh, I liked the bit where Dolly called out people as cowards.
Although it was hard to tell exactly what she was saying as her facial muscles didn't seem to be working.Fuck comments like this, fuck them right off.
sigh, I liked the bit where Dolly called out people as cowards.
No, that was her pal, Kenny Rogers. And he only called out one. In the whole County.
Although it was hard to tell exactly what she was saying as her facial muscles didn't seem to be working.Fuck comments like this, fuck them right off.
*mechanical breathing sounds*sigh, I liked the bit where Dolly called out people as cowards.
No, that was her pal, Kenny Rogers. And he only called out one. In the whole County.
She said it at the end of the song in the video
Although it was hard to tell exactly what she was saying as her facial muscles didn't seem to be working.Fuck comments like this, fuck them right off.
The point being publicly called out as a 'coward' based on health choices, generates some discomfort when coming from someone with a net worth of 600million whose chosen to spend a significant amount of money on augmenting surgery based upon or driven by (one presumes) a neurotic desire to live forever. Agreed f. to that.
The point being publicly called out as a 'coward' based on health choices, generates some discomfort when coming from someone with a net worth of 600million whose chosen to spend a significant amount of money on augmenting surgery based upon or driven by (one presumes) a neurotic desire to live forever. Agreed f. to that.
I assume that I know nothing and start asking questions from there.
Although it was hard to tell exactly what she was saying as her facial muscles didn't seem to be working.Fuck comments like this, fuck them right off.
The point being publicly called out as a 'coward' based on health choices, generates some discomfort when coming from someone with a net worth of 600million whose chosen to spend a significant amount of money on augmenting surgery based upon or driven by (one presumes) a neurotic desire to live forever. Agreed f. to that.
Although it was hard to tell exactly what she was saying as her facial muscles didn't seem to be working.Fuck comments like this, fuck them right off.
The point being publicly called out as a 'coward' based on health choices, generates some discomfort when coming from someone with a net worth of 600million whose chosen to spend a significant amount of money on augmenting surgery based upon or driven by (one presumes) a neurotic desire to live forever. Agreed f. to that.
I assume that I know nothing and start asking questions from there.
:lol: That's a joke right? If not you should try re-reading your posts once in a while Dan!
(https://scontent.flpl1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/cp0/e15/q65/s1080x2048/156568171_10159697374623623_2235286713860267668_o.jpg?_nc_cat=110&ccb=3&_nc_sid=110474&efg=eyJpIjoiYiJ9&_nc_ohc=beSaxZ4cKuIAX89CIHk&_nc_ht=scontent.flpl1-1.fna&tp=9&oh=3bee6490c83205a642039adf0f614b19&oe=606508CC)
Got my 5G mind-control nano-particles in early. A silver lining to having DVTs (spoiler: there aren't actually any silver linings to having DVTs). Trying to decide whether I should celebrate by joining the send train bellends beneath Demon Wall Roof, or try to find a local Wetherspoons lock-in illegal party...
Congrats on the nano-particles! May your immune response be robust and your side-effects light!
(https://scontent.flpl1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/cp0/e15/q65/s1080x2048/156568171_10159697374623623_2235286713860267668_o.jpg?_nc_cat=110&ccb=3&_nc_sid=110474&efg=eyJpIjoiYiJ9&_nc_ohc=beSaxZ4cKuIAX89CIHk&_nc_ht=scontent.flpl1-1.fna&tp=9&oh=3bee6490c83205a642039adf0f614b19&oe=606508CC)
Got my 5G mind-control nano-particles in early. A silver lining to having DVTs (spoiler: there aren't actually any silver linings to having DVTs). Trying to decide whether I should celebrate by joining the send train bellends beneath Demon Wall Roof, or try to find a local Wetherspoons lock-in illegal party...
I’m still trying to wrap my head around this miracle. Praise be for covid and the government, they managed to wipe out the flu. If you’re going to tell a lie..... etc
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/health/flu-cases-covid-england-phe-latest-b1805124.html%3famp
I agree that it's jaw-dropping that they found zero cases, but are you actually claiming that this is a "lie" and Public Health England is involved in some sort of conspiracy to hide flu cases for unknown reasons?
The dramatic drop in flu is well documented round the world. Here's what happened in the southern hemisphere during their flu season, where cases were described as "virtually nonexistent":
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/flu-season-never-came-to-the-southern-hemisphere1/
More stuff from Nature:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03519-3
So either the whole world's in on the conspiracy, or there really has been a huge drop in flu cases.
Which is not really surprising, given that the methods to try to block transmission of one respiratory virus are also going to work pretty well on another virus that happens to be transmitted through exactly the same methods. Plus a lot of places (UK included) have boosted the shit out of their flu vaccination programmes to try to prevent hospitals from crashing under the weight of the flu season as well as covid.
Yes I am claiming it is a lie that has manifested from pandemic health policy.
I also believe that mandating by law lockdowns, face coverings and any other health procedure is a human rights abuse.
I’ll repeat it just to be clear. I believe that the idea that there has been no flu detected in the U.K. is a lie manifested from pandemic health policy
I’ll repeat it just to be clear. I believe that the idea that there has been no flu detected in the U.K. is a lie manifested from pandemic health
and that the mandating by law of lockdowns, face coverings and medical procedures is a human rights abuse.
I’ll repeat it just to be clear. I believe that the idea that there has been no flu detected in the U.K. is a lie manifested from pandemic health policy and that the mandating by law of lockdowns, face coverings and medical procedures is a human rights abuse.
I’ll repeat it just to be clear. I believe that the idea that there has been no flu detected in the U.K. is a lie manifested from pandemic health policy.
Straw men, moral equivalence, slippery slope reasoning, ad hominem are all regularly used to rebuff arguments hereOnly from you, Dan.
'preach it round or preach it flat' whatever fits
I’ll repeat it just to be clear. I believe that the idea that there has been no flu detected in the U.K. is a lie manifested from pandemic health policy and that the mandating by law of lockdowns, face coverings and medical procedures is a human rights abuse.
Yes well, visceral reasoning is a last port of call not to be ignored
Last chance Dan.
You’d better demonstrate you are going to properly engage with others posts or I’ll delete you account for trolling again.
I'm not trolling, I was stating a belief which I admit to a large degree is unsubstantiated but gathered from paying attention to a wide range of sources. It is hard to engage with points when they are mixed up with personal attacks. I understand what you're saying about mental states and if my belief that mandates are a human rights abuse (this is genuine) disturbs anyone that wasn't my intention.Dan, your “ belief” is demonstrably false.
Last chance Dan.
You’d better demonstrate you are going to properly engage with others posts or I’ll delete you account for trolling again.
The NHS is a corrupt organisation as is NHS England, it's corrupt due to the ongoing problems of health care being conflated with politics, money and power. Money and power is distributed to the NHS by the government via performance based measures, outcomes which are incentivised. This naturally leads to both conscious and unconscious motivating factors to manage and manipulate statistics for the benefit of the organisation which may or may not lead to improvements in health care but usually benefits the few as opposed to the many. I don't believe this is an organised global conspiracy but I do believe this has been going on throughout the pandemic which has been supported by the government campaign which essentially is about money and power or simply power. A good past example would be the pandemrix scandal reported by channel 4. Therefore my visceral reasoning suggests to me that top down decisions are being made about healthcare not on the basis of care for well being but on the basis of money and power. Some of the various ways this has played out during the pandemic include the management of reporting of death and the various covid testing queries. The fear and unhappiness generated by this government led campaign will be around for a long time.
Ok ok, I'll go and find my natural home with the basement morons. fair enough - genuinely meantLook, you woke up this morning, with a Bee in your proverbial Bonnet, bubbling over with the need to recolour the world.
There are enough corners of the internet for wankers in their basements to discuss the 'scamdemic.' If Dan wants to he should piss off there.
I think the most parsimonious explanation is - flu is less transmissible than COVID therefore COVID control measures suppress flu to the extent that it can’t generate sustained community transmission; plus flu vaccinations; plus probably what few case there are not getting detected and/or mistaken for COVID.
I'd have to say having read the last couple of pages and disagreed with Dan's opinions, by far the most offensive posts have been the ones directed at him.
e.g.QuoteThere are enough corners of the internet for wankers in their basements to discuss the 'scamdemic.' If Dan wants to he should piss off there.
I wholeheartedly agree with the posts appealing to reason.
How about sticking to the topic.
The NHS is a corrupt organisation as is NHS England, it's corrupt due to the ongoing problems of health care being conflated with politics, money and power. Money and power is distributed to the NHS by the government via performance based measures, outcomes which are incentivised. This naturally leads to both conscious and unconscious motivating factors to manage and manipulate statistics for the benefit of the organisation which may or may not lead to improvements in health care but usually benefits the few as opposed to the many. I don't believe this is an organised global conspiracy but I do believe this has been going on throughout the pandemic which has been supported by the government campaign which essentially is about money and power or simply power. A good past example would be the pandemrix scandal reported by channel 4. Therefore my visceral reasoning suggests to me that top down decisions are being made about healthcare not on the basis of care for well being but on the basis of money and power. Some of the various ways this has played out during the pandemic include the management of reporting of death and the various covid testing queries. The fear and unhappiness generated by this government led campaign will be around for a long time.There is a degree of reality in this in my experience given the NHS is target driven plus when government announces new money for the NHS and it never arrives on the front line because it has be off set against the annual cost/ financial improvements every trust has to make.
This naturally leads to both conscious and unconscious motivating factors to manage and manipulate statistics for the benefit of the organisationI only know a couple of statisticians, but they seem very aware of trying to avoid these issues. There are many situations where you "want" a certain answer, usually I imagine it's best to have a methodology set in these situations before starting the analysis (assuming you can't blind the analysis). Given flu isn't new I'd expect that to be the case here, making it harder to manipulate the data from the stats point of view; though presumably not impossible. Seems plausible that some flu will get misdiagnosed as covid or whatever given current environments, skewing stats slightly, but doctors are just trying to do their best. They've failed to diagnose a recurrent swelling on my hand for years, but it's not because Bojo's paying them off... though Stu might be now I think about it ;)
Therefore my visceral reasoning suggests to me that top down decisions are being made about healthcare not on the basis of care for well being but on the basis of money and power.I'm sure that, in some situations, this has always been the case, still is, and always will be. Not really sure that that's a good refutation of the published flu stats or explains your distinction between masks and other rules around protecting others?
The fear and unhappiness generated by this government led campaign will be around for a long time.Yes, but what's your alternative that causes less suffering? I'm sure we'll all agree that there's been some amount of mismanagement, significant in some cases, but again, what's that got to do with whether we trust flu stats? Or whether mask rules are a human rights infringement in a way that speed limits and other laws aren't?
I'd have to say having read the last couple of pages and disagreed with Dan's opinions, by far the most offensive posts have been the ones directed at him.Hear hear!
This naturally leads to both conscious and unconscious motivating factors to manage and manipulate statistics for the benefit of the organisationI only know a couple of statisticians, but they seem very aware of trying to avoid these issues. There are many situations where you "want" a certain answer, usually I imagine it's best to have a methodology set in these situations before starting the analysis (assuming you can't blind the analysis). Given flu isn't new I'd expect that to be the case here, making it harder to manipulate the data from the stats point of view; though presumably not impossible. Seems plausible that some flu will get misdiagnosed as covid or whatever given current environments, skewing stats slightly, but doctors are just trying to do their best. They've failed to diagnose a recurrent swelling on my hand for years, but it's not because Bojo's paying them off... though Stu might be now I think about it ;)Therefore my visceral reasoning suggests to me that top down decisions are being made about healthcare not on the basis of care for well being but on the basis of money and power.I'm sure that, in some situations, this has always been the case, still is, and always will be. Not really sure that that's a good refutation of the published flu stats or explains your distinction between masks and other rules around protecting others?The fear and unhappiness generated by this government led campaign will be around for a long time.Yes, but what's your alternative that causes less suffering? I'm sure we'll all agree that there's been some amount of mismanagement, significant in some cases, but again, what's that got to do with whether we trust flu stats? Or whether mask rules are a human rights infringement in a way that speed limits and other laws aren't?
P.s. on the older post about deaths in 2020 vs earlier years, this is a nice exploration of the deaths figures for 2020, slicing and dicing them in various different ways https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-how-mortality-rates-in-2020-compare-with-past-decades-and-centuries-12185275
I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that mass covid testing has obscured flu data and made it disappear to some degree.
Yeah, this isn't just a question of dumb top-down decisions influencing care lower down. Either it's real (in the sense that the data is what the report says it is), or there's something significant like changing test protocols to make detection less likely or a genuine lie/cover-up. The latter seems very unlikely. The former... who knows, I don't know enough about PHE's flu testing procedures to have an opinion, but I'm guessing Dan doesn't either? I cba to go find the source report to check if it has a methodology to compare to previous years...
Go along to get along.
They just know me from being an idiot on here but actually a very nice friendly chap to meet in person.
At this point I’m just gonna get on with work and gardening. But would always be up for a conversation in person. Whatever that might be about.
This naturally leads to both conscious and unconscious motivating factors to manage and manipulate statistics for the benefit of the organisationI only know a couple of statisticians, but they seem very aware of trying to avoid these issues. There are many situations where you "want" a certain answer, usually I imagine it's best to have a methodology set in these situations before starting the analysis (assuming you can't blind the analysis). Given flu isn't new I'd expect that to be the case here, making it harder to manipulate the data from the stats point of view; though presumably not impossible. Seems plausible that some flu will get misdiagnosed as covid or whatever given current environments, skewing stats slightly, but doctors are just trying to do their best. They've failed to diagnose a recurrent swelling on my hand for years, but it's not because Bojo's paying them off... though Stu might be now I think about it ;)Therefore my visceral reasoning suggests to me that top down decisions are being made about healthcare not on the basis of care for well being but on the basis of money and power.I'm sure that, in some situations, this has always been the case, still is, and always will be. Not really sure that that's a good refutation of the published flu stats or explains your distinction between masks and other rules around protecting others?The fear and unhappiness generated by this government led campaign will be around for a long time.Yes, but what's your alternative that causes less suffering? I'm sure we'll all agree that there's been some amount of mismanagement, significant in some cases, but again, what's that got to do with whether we trust flu stats? Or whether mask rules are a human rights infringement in a way that speed limits and other laws aren't?
P.s. on the older post about deaths in 2020 vs earlier years, this is a nice exploration of the deaths figures for 2020, slicing and dicing them in various different ways https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-how-mortality-rates-in-2020-compare-with-past-decades-and-centuries-12185275
I don't know how, or if, they're doing that I'm afraid.
On the plus side, you shouldn't get to 50 via false positives alone. Quick back-of-envelope: 300k PCR tests/day UK-wide (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing), assuming pop of 66m this is ~455 tests per 100k. At 2% false positive (just picking roughly the middle of you range here), that would be ~9 false positives per day per 100k (approx 3.5-18 with the broad error range you gave).
The rate is calculated by adding up all the cases over the previous seven days and then dividing by the population of the local authority. This number is then multiplied by 100,000.
I was assuming that the 50 measure was in positive tests, not actual prevalence.
They’ve covered this on More or Less in the past - 23rd Sept last year. Just relistened to it, it’s the second segment about 8 minutes in. Conclusion seemed to be that false positive rate is nearer 0.05% and that worrying about it probably a distraction.
They’ve covered this on More or Less in the past - 23rd Sept last year. Just relistened to it, it’s the second segment about 8 minutes in. Conclusion seemed to be that false positive rate is nearer 0.05% and that worrying about it probably a distraction.
Sure, but even with zero prevalence, a 0.05% FPR gives 50 positives per 100k. So even with no prevalence of Covid in the population you're still hitting the 50 positive tests per 100k criteria. With increased prevalence the proportion of positive tests is only going to increase. I thought this was Fultonious's point.
I'm saying they'll do the numbers on people testing positive per 100k of population I.e. this main dataset. They're not aiming for prevalence of 50 per 100k of population, just positive tests of that... Your last point (and all of Jerry's) assumes they've tested everyone or scaled up for not having done that, but AFAIK only the ONS convert to estimate of actual prevalence - not the main test data.. bear in mind we were at about 10 when I went to Germany last Sept so clearly the data is not scaled or false positive is <0.001% and there was no covid then. I'll bet £100 they don't scale the main data.
Interesting briefing today that cases and the R rate are no longer the key metrics for the easing of lockdown, instead focusing on hospitalisations. Quite a step change but probably logical as we get smaller numbers as they will be all over the place.
I’d linked this to the switch in strategy from trying to get to zero Covid to trying to manage the impacts, plus the impacts of the vaccine. I think the suggestion of empirical data was that the vaccine reduced hospitalisation significantly more than it reduced cases, so making whatever cases did occur less serious. So cases might be less of a good indicator as more of the population is vaccinated.Interesting briefing today that cases and the R rate are no longer the key metrics for the easing of lockdown, instead focusing on hospitalisations. Quite a step change but probably logical as we get smaller numbers as they will be all over the place.
I imagine there's a cost aspect to it as well. I'd speculate that you need to be doing a lot of testing to get reasonable estimates for cases and r rate.
An interesting article on vaccine corruption. Gotta love being awake at this time ugh
Interesting briefing today that cases and the R rate are no longer the key metrics for the easing of lockdown, instead focusing on hospitalisations. Quite a step change but probably logical as we get smaller numbers as they will be all over the place.
R has always been a terrible metric for communicating the situation and for making policy decisions.
Too many assumptions have to be made to work back to R, so it gets very noisy.
There isn't enough data to use it on a local authority level so a reliance on R masks rapid local changes until the problem has already got out of hand.
It isn't intuitive to the average person (or politician). Tell them that R is 1.3-1.5 and the average person doesn't know what to think. Tell them that cases are doubling in some London local authorities every 3.8 days and the situation sounds as terrifying as it was in the autumn.
It becomes even less useful in the situation of emerging variants where the time period for transmission may not be the same.
Simple periods of doubling/halving for cases/hospitalisations/deaths require less guesswork, paint a clearer picture, and are more sensitive to change, allowing for quicker decisions to be made when the situation changes rapidly on a local level.Interesting briefing today that cases and the R rate are no longer the key metrics for the easing of lockdown, instead focusing on hospitalisations. Quite a step change but probably logical as we get smaller numbers as they will be all over the place.
Greater weight on hospitalisations makes more sense as vaccine numbers grow. But the lag for hospitalisations is too big to drive policy if (when) we return to situation where things are getting worse again.
If you wait until hospitalisations have already started creeping up, it is already too late.
Hospitalisations driving policy only makes sense while everything is decreasing.
An interesting article on vaccine corruption. Gotta love being awake at this time ugh
Quite apart from the fact that it's a shit, one sided, article with no proper analysis about whether the utopian view of vaccine and intellectual property distribution it espouses was practically, politically and economically possible, please explain where the corruption is. Corruption being dishonest or fraudulent activity usually involving the taking of bribes, not just things you don't like.
Dan, come on, if every view you put forward is predicated on everyone, and every organisation, being corrupt, power-seeking liars, it's not surprising that everyone gets a bit annoyed. Quite apart from that, you do your own cause a disservice, because if there is any truth in it, it gets drowned out by the hyperbole and exaggeration.
R has always been a terrible metric for communicating the situation and for making policy decisions.
Too many assumptions have to be made to work back to R, so it gets very noisy.
There isn't enough data to use it on a local authority level so a reliance on R masks rapid local changes until the problem has already got out of hand.
It isn't intuitive to the average person (or politician). Tell them that R is 1.3-1.5 and the average person doesn't know what to think. Tell them that cases are doubling in some London local authorities every 3.8 days and the situation sounds as terrifying as it was in the autumn.
It becomes even less useful in the situation of emerging variants where the time period for transmission may not be the same.
Simple periods of doubling/halving for cases/hospitalisations/deaths require less guesswork, paint a clearer picture, and are more sensitive to change, allowing for quicker decisions to be made when the situation changes rapidly on a local level.Interesting briefing today that cases and the R rate are no longer the key metrics for the easing of lockdown, instead focusing on hospitalisations. Quite a step change but probably logical as we get smaller numbers as they will be all over the place.
Greater weight on hospitalisations makes more sense as vaccine numbers grow. But the lag for hospitalisations is too big to drive policy if (when) we return to situation where things are getting worse again.
If you wait until hospitalisations have already started creeping up, it is already too late.
Hospitalisations driving policy only makes sense while everything is decreasing.
Really the best way to drive policy is surely to have a really well functioning test and trace system so you can get a broadly accurate estimate of risk of infection risk to an individual in a given area.
Unfortunately we have someone whose main expertise appears to be horse riding, and main qualifications having been a friend of the prime minister for decades.
the fact that politics and economics are involved is the problem.
Yikes it’s team lattice world police with the cavalry of messers Popp and Davies in tow. Once you’ve finished with me ye can head off to save the environment by burning rubber chips and and mining battery components. A necessary evil debate
Straw men, moral equivalence, slippery slope reasoning, ad hominem are all regularly used to rebuff arguments here
I don’t believe it’s a particularly radical idea that a large scale health intervention can be delivered without meddling cronies and fucking Bond villain philanthropists cashing in on the misery. The BMJ article I posted and the crony map which no one has commented on show to some extent the degree of this. Show me a (leading) politician that isn’t a liar a fraud a deviant or a stooge and I’ll eat my hat
Yikes it’s team lattice world police with the cavalry of messers Popp and Davies in tow. Once you’ve finished with me ye can head off to save the environment by burning rubber chips and and mining battery components. A necessary evil debateStraw men, moral equivalence, slippery slope reasoning, ad hominem are all regularly used to rebuff arguments here
When paid up next year - TTI will cost the equivalent of £560 per person. TTI is vital for tracking the pandemic
If it doesn’t do that effectively, including fast, it’s worthless.
Interesting briefing today that cases and the R rate are no longer the key metrics for the easing of lockdown, instead focusing on hospitalisations. Quite a step change but probably logical as we get smaller numbers as they will be all over the place.
Greater weight on hospitalisations makes more sense as vaccine numbers grow. But the lag for hospitalisations is too big to drive policy if (when) we return to situation where things are getting worse again.
If you wait until hospitalisations have already started creeping up, it is already too late.
Hospitalisations driving policy only makes sense while everything is decreasing.
It’s “NHS Test, Track and Trace”
Yet it’s “ the Government vaccine roll-out”
FYI - those with kids at school - link here to order Lateral flow kits to either pick up or be delivered.
https://www.gov.uk/order-coronavirus-rapid-lateral-flow-tests
FWIW having filled in the website forms etc.. I can’t see how they would know if you have kids or not. ;)
Just had my jab in Leeds. God knows why I was invited so early as I'm 31 with no existing health conditions and I've never had a flu jab!I heard there’d been a fuck up with the vaccine priority algorithm and some younger people were randomly being invited. I know a few people who’ve had it and can’t understand why.
Do you work in social care or special needs education ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAHi3lX3oGM
Just had my jab in Leeds. God knows why I was invited so early as I'm 31 with no existing health conditions and I've never had a flu jab!
I had mine 2 weeks ago and I didn’t even get a sore arm. The missus had hers yesterday had a few aches in the evening, so took some painkillers and has been since.Just had my jab in Leeds. God knows why I was invited so early as I'm 31 with no existing health conditions and I've never had a flu jab!
Just take it, then ask why...
And let me know how the side affects pan out.
Inlaws were pretty ill for four to five days.
They both had a feeling they’d had Covid, without symptoms, but that was based on their reaction rather than anything else.
Just had my jab in Leeds. God knows why I was invited so early as I'm 31 with no existing health conditions and I've never had a flu jab!I heard there’d been a fuck up with the vaccine priority algorithm and some younger people were randomly being invited. I know a few people who’ve had it and can’t understand why.
Can't be bothered to watch the video because life is too short, but lemme guess, is it about how hydroxychloroquine is a magic cure which the establishment are suppressing?
Because it took me 30 seconds' Googling to find this:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/22/melbourne-doctors-under-review-for-promoting-discredited-covid-treatment
McCullough doesn't feature until halfway through, but it's worth the wait.
The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) is a conservative non-profit association founded in 1944. The group was reported to have about 5,000 members in 2014. The association has promoted a range of scientifically discredited hypotheses, including the belief that HIV does not cause AIDS, that “gay” male lifestyle increases the incidence of infectious disease, that there is a link between abortion and breast cancer, and that there is a causal relationship between vaccines and autism.
It’s amazing what effect an authoritative sounding name still has on me, conservative think tanks seem to be good at this in this country too.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_of_American_Physicians_and_SurgeonsQuoteThe Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) is a conservative non-profit association founded in 1944. The group was reported to have about 5,000 members in 2014. The association has promoted a range of scientifically discredited hypotheses, including the belief that HIV does not cause AIDS, that “gay” male lifestyle increases the incidence of infectious disease, that there is a link between abortion and breast cancer, and that there is a causal relationship between vaccines and autism.
Just take it, then ask why...I had mine 2 weeks ago and I didn’t even get a sore arm. The missus had hers yesterday had a few aches in the evening, so took some painkillers and has been since.
And let me know how the side affects pan out.
Inlaws were pretty ill for four to five days.
They both had a feeling they’d had Covid, without symptoms, but that was based on their reaction rather than anything else.
prickly skin
I read that if you had no bmi entered in your records for some reason it would default to 31 (badly obese) and so get you a jab. Similar of your ethnicity wasn’t recorded it would assume the most vulnerable. Algorithm designed to be careful if in doubt. With close to 45% of the adult population now jabbed its less of an issue I expect.
MrsTt had her second jab this week. Both my parents last.
I read that if you had no bmi entered in your records for some reason it would default to 31 (badly obese) and so get you a jab. Similar of your ethnicity wasn’t recorded it would assume the most vulnerable. Algorithm designed to be careful if in doubt. With close to 45% of the adult population now jabbed its less of an issue I expect.
MrsTt had her second jab this week. Both my parents last.
I just clicked something here.
If this is correct, it probably means there are way less morbidly obese people in the UK, than the NHS thought...
Or is it just the vaccine algorithm defaulting to 31?
Liberty's doing solid work campaigning against the government using coronavirus as an excuse for blanket suppression of protests:
https://www.libertyhumanrights.org.uk/fundamental/coronavirus/
(Also against the stripping of rights to social care and other issues.)
Have a round-up from my favourite liberal elitist intellectual rag re: how police have been using the regulations to clamp down on responsibly-organized, socially-distanced protests:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/13/police-in-england-using-covid-lockdown-rules-to-halt-any-protests
This has fuck-all to do with keeping anyone safe from Covid; it's just authoritarian policing that thinks it has license from an authoritarian home secretary.
In this case, they seem to have made the tactical mistake of manhandling nice respectable-looking middle-class white women, which plays differently in PR terms from manhandling other groups.
N.B. I say this as a middle-class white woman, so this is not a diss of middle-class white women, just a cynical consideration of what's seen to "look bad". We literally get advised to go on protests because we can sometimes act as a human shield and block over-aggressive police responses to other groups.
In this case, they seem to have made the tactical mistake of manhandling nice respectable-looking middle-class white women, which plays differently in PR terms from manhandling other groups.
those dreadful Black Lives Matter protests
In this case, they seem to have made the tactical mistake of manhandling nice respectable-looking middle-class white women, which plays differently in PR terms from manhandling other groups.
Exactly, unlikeQuote from: Priti_Patelthose dreadful Black Lives Matter protests
In this case, they seem to have made the tactical mistake of manhandling nice respectable-looking middle-class white women, which plays differently in PR terms from manhandling other groups.
Exactly, unlikeQuote from: Priti_Patelthose dreadful Black Lives Matter protests
My thought exactly.
I also believe that mandating by law lockdowns, face coverings and any other health procedure is a human rights abuse.
Yeah! And seatbelts! And traffic laws! And Child protection laws that stop me punishing my children the way I see fit! Oh, and laws regulating the practice of medicine! Nobody should be forced to only have approved and tested medications and procedures.
Come on! It’s not as if any of this stuff actually worked! It’s coincidental that seatbelt introduction coincided with a reduction of road deaths! It’s coincidental that every mandated lockdown and mask wearing occurred just before a rapid drop in infections!
Dan’s comfort is all that matters!
Thank the Flying Spaghetti Monster, that Dan is here to explain why society would function so much better without laws and mandates and regulations and order. Of course, everybody would be sensible and do the right thing, if only the “GoveRnmUnT” would leave them alone!
Some interesting perspectives from this man. His credentials seem sound. I will be interested to see what’s dug up on him and how long it will be before he is a broken man. This is one of his longer interviews and the link below is his open letter
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MkLIFDwORXc
https://mcusercontent.com/92561d6dedb66a43fe9a6548f/files/bead7203-0798-4ac8-abe2-076208015556/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concert_Geert_Vanden_Bossche.01.pdf
Some interesting perspectives from this man. His credentials seem sound. I will be interested to see what’s dug up on him and how long it will be before he is a broken man. This is one of his longer interviews and the link below is his open letter
Did you read the full text he linked on Twitter? (I didn’t watch the video).
A look at the statistics of blood clots with respect to the Astra Zeneca vaccine.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/15/evidence-oxford-vaccine-blood-clots-data-causal-links
I had the AZ vaccine Friday and am totally happy with my choice. As reported i had a banging headache
I was waiting for an event like the blood clotting issue (?) to happen, I’m quite surprised it’s taken this long. Given ~17 million people (~11 million in the UK) have had the Oxford-AZ vaccine it would be amazing if there were not some clusters of some kind of problem that, superficially, could be associated with the vaccine. Study millions people for a couple of months and all kinds of medical problems will befall them because... shit happens.
Lots of people between jobs currently, but maybe not do much for vaccine
Here’s a link to his CV tees tub. I haven’t been through it with a fine tooth comb yet, but I’m sure you can find something? Maybe a racist or sexist remark made whilst drunk circa 1975
https://37b32f5a-6ed9-4d6d-b3e1-5ec648ad9ed9.filesusr.com/ugd/28d8fe_ee3268cae3624827813d352f63b2088d.pdf
The decisions to suspend use of the AZ are clearly political in the sense that they are attempts to respond to and shape people's perceptions and behaviours, as has to be done, whether or not those perceptions have any basis in reality. It's not possible to simply ignore the fact that rumours and doubts are circulating.
Of course, knowing what strategy will work in such a febrile context as we live in now is almost impossible. Ignore the doubts, carry on using the vaccine and hope the concerns will fade? Or will they just continue to propagate, fuelled by a kind of "they're out of touch/not listening to our genuine fears" attitude? People don't like to be told they don't understand and are simply wrong. Or suspend them, do further testing, and come back with the reassurances people might be looking for. Or does that just lead to a "there's no smoke without fire, what are they not telling us" reaction? It's not an easy choice.
The decisions to suspend use of the AZ are clearly political in the sense that they are attempts to respond to and shape people's perceptions and behaviours, as has to be done, whether or not those perceptions have any basis in reality. It's not possible to simply ignore the fact that rumours and doubts are circulating.
Of course, knowing what strategy will work in such a febrile context as we live in now is almost impossible. Ignore the doubts, carry on using the vaccine and hope the concerns will fade? Or will they just continue to propagate, fuelled by a kind of "they're out of touch/not listening to our genuine fears" attitude? People don't like to be told they don't understand and are simply wrong. Or suspend them, do further testing, and come back with the reassurances people might be looking for. Or does that just lead to a "there's no smoke without fire, what are they not telling us" reaction? It's not an easy choice.
The decisions to suspend use of the AZ are clearly political in the sense that they are attempts to respond to and shape people's perceptions and behaviours, as has to be done, whether or not those perceptions have any basis in reality. It's not possible to simply ignore the fact that rumours and doubts are circulating.
Of course, knowing what strategy will work in such a febrile context as we live in now is almost impossible. Ignore the doubts, carry on using the vaccine and hope the concerns will fade? Or will they just continue to propagate, fuelled by a kind of "they're out of touch/not listening to our genuine fears" attitude? People don't like to be told they don't understand and are simply wrong. Or suspend them, do further testing, and come back with the reassurances people might be looking for. Or does that just lead to a "there's no smoke without fire, what are they not telling us" reaction? It's not an easy choice.
This is all fair comment, but I can't help but feel that European leaders have boxed themselves into a corner here. They have gone from complaining AZ was shorting them on their jab supply, to Macron saying the AZ jab was 'quasi ineffective' on the elderly (totally wrong), to seizing a shipment of AZ jabs that was meant for Australia to use themselves, to now implying there is a risk associated with it. The messaging is absolutely shambolic and its frankly no wonder there is vaccine hesitancy around the AZ jab on the continent. They act like the decisions and pronouncements they make regarding the jab happen in a vacuum and aren't read by the public ... People will actively decide not to get the jab as a result of this nonsense.
France sounds like a shit show right now.
My grandparents are out there at 84 and one has dementia. Neither have been jabbed.
Gran is calling the GP almost everyday to see when she can get her jab.
Andy, why do you think vax hesitancy is so much higher in Europe than the UK? I've read a few pieces but nothing hugely convincing.
I had quite unpleasant* side effects from the AZ vaccine - but have been really careful not to share it (aside from on here) widely because it so clear any negative effect could be picked up on by those concerned.
*horrible sleepless night with headachy flu symptoms - lasted 18-20 hours.
I'm going to sound a bit tin foil hat here - but... AZ made at cost. £3.50 per dose. The others - from Pfizer to Modena, to J&J to the Russian and Chinese ones go from £15-35 a dose.... AZ is the market disruptor here - developing and maintaining a negative narrative about it serves to benefit all the other manufacturers - even if it leads to a reduced uptake of all vaccines...
I really can't fathom why Macron said what he did...
Andy, why do you think vax hesitancy is so much higher in Europe than the UK? I've read a few pieces but nothing hugely convincing.
I know that there was already significant vax hesitancy in France prior to the pandemic tied, I believe, to a series of medical-government scandals that had eroded trust, but hard to believe that can be the full explanation. In Germany I would imagine it ties to a strain of esoteric thinking, for want of a better word, that has long been a sub-stratum of the culture, a feature of both the left and the right. But, again, can that be all? QAnon is particularly strong there too.
I've not seen or read anything about vaccine hesitancy in Denmark (just did a quick search and didn't find anything) but would imagine it's pretty low. I've also only read about one anti-lockdown protest here, though there may have been small ones I've not heard about as I don't/can't read the Danish press.
One of the things that has most impressed me here has been the absolute clarity and consistency of all government messaging around the pandemic, including on vaccines. But here's an example of those spillover effects you were talking about. Once a post-AZ vaccine death had occured here (60 year old woman a few days ago) the government probably felt it had to be seen to be doing something given the actions Danes can clearly see other countries taking.
I had quite unpleasant* side effects from the AZ vaccine - but have been really careful not to share it (aside from on here) widely because it so clear any negative effect could be picked up on by those concerned.
*horrible sleepless night with headachy flu symptoms - lasted 18-20 hours.
its hard to square my internal image of Germany- logical, well governed, not prone to hyperbole - with widespread qanon belief! Interesting stuff.
doing handstand presses
Where do you guys stand on someone declining simply because they don't want it? This seems the controversial issue. The unvaccinated should be happy for everyone who wants it to have it, I would always support someone to be vaccinated especially if they are at risk or vulnerable and have done. I would never question somebody who simply said I don't want it.
Where do you guys stand on someone declining simply because they don't want it? This seems the controversial issue. The unvaccinated should be happy for everyone who wants it to have it, I would always support someone to be vaccinated especially if they are at risk or vulnerable and have done. I would never question somebody who simply said I don't want it.
they think they should be entitled to a bloody menu
Where do you guys stand on someone declining simply because they don't want it? This seems the controversial issue. The unvaccinated should be happy for everyone who wants it to have it, I would always support someone to be vaccinated especially if they are at risk or vulnerable and have done. I would never question somebody who simply said I don't want it.
Talking about vaccines, at what point will it become mandatory to have a vaccine passport to shop in supermarkets etc??
(Asking for a friend ofc...)
:agree: with OMM
cheers for the replies about the vaccine chaps
:agree: with OMM
cheers for the replies about the vaccine chaps
Really? I thought you we’re expecting an apocalyptic resurgence of super Covid? Or mass death through vaccine reactions? (Not that I managed to work out how you squared the latter with your previous “Covid is fake/exaggerated (whatever)” stuff).
I’d already mentally renamed you “Private Frazer” and ascribed the appropriate Highland accent to all your posts...
I'm surprised you can believe in such a black and white idea of good and evil people. You can't know the motivation of other people, only infer from their actions and words. Don't you think it's more plausible that even the worst people (and your list is a broad spectrum including people who are plausibly altruistic by most people's reading)do generally care to some extent about other people at some basic primal level?
It is about power, control and money. That’s exactly the opposite of a black and white view. It’s saying motivations are complex
Freud was a cokehead who thought that all women secretly want to have penises.
Nah, that’s your addition. I’m saying that the idea that anyone from Fauci to Vallance, Biden to Boris or Gates to Gates actually gives a genuine fuck about people’s health is a total illusion.
Freud was a cokehead who thought that all women secretly want to have penises.
Exactly.
Freud was a cokehead who thought that all women secretly want to have penises.
Exactly.
Topic split?
That is an over simplification, you can trace back a significant proportion of modern psychological therapies including CBT, CFT, counselling etc to their origins in Freuds work and his influences. A great example of polarised thinking. It reminds me of the feminist attack on attachment theory and Bowlby based on the idea that infant attachment focused on a maternal figure was part of an unconscious desire to repress women.
I suspect Andy was making an offhand generalisation to illustrate a point, in response to your simplistic dismissal of all individuals involved in the global response to Covid.
Forget why they do it. What do you think they should have done?
Forget why they do it. What do you think they should have done?
You may have to "go Paxman" on this one.
I was reading recently about death amongst young adults during the 1918 Influenza pandemic.
Only 10-15% of deaths were caused by Influenza, the majority were attributed to subsequent aggressive Bacterial Pneumonia.
I suspect Andy was making an offhand generalisation to illustrate a point, in response to your simplistic dismissal of all individuals involved in the global response to Covid.
With regards his philanthropy consider dirty drinking water and lack of good sewerage systems and the consequent diseases it generates. Billy Goats foundation does describe some involvement in making this better. I'm pretty sure it doesn't take an army of scientists to sort this problem out so why hasn't he done it? and why has he developed a toilet that turns excrement into drinkable water? A better metaphor for the behaviour of these characters I could not come up with
With regards his philanthropy consider dirty drinking water and lack of good sewerage systems and the consequent diseases it generates. Billy Goats foundation does describe some involvement in making this better. I'm pretty sure it doesn't take an army of scientists to sort this problem out so why hasn't he done it? and why has he developed a toilet that turns excrement into drinkable water? A better metaphor for the behaviour of these characters I could not come up with
I'm sorry, but this must be the most naive, simplistic, dumb thing I have ever heard in my life. I don't consider myself an expert on the topic but just by musing for a few minutes I can think of lots of reasons why problems of water scarcity and sanitation haven't just been "sorted out". Think about the places where water is scarce. Different geography, different cultures, different everything.
As for "turning excrement into drinkable water", what is it that you think the water cycle does? Do you think the water you're drinking hasn't been inside a living thing before? On a shorter time-frame, what do you think happens to the waste you flush away? You live in Sheffield, yes? Well then your waste heads on down to the big set of tanks opposite Meadowhall. The solid component of the waste gets separated from the liquid component and the liquid component is treated to reduce the concentrations of things like ammonia and BOD, and then it is discharged to the River Don where fish, (increasingly including salmonid fish), swim around in it. As it happens, this water then flows down to the sea. If you lived in York your water supply would most likely come from the River Ouse. Upstream of York there are sewage works which discharge their treated waste to the river from which you extract your drinking water. To say you were drinking other people's excrement would be fantastically simplistic and would be to ignore the complexity of the issue - your specialty.
How nice for you to sit comfortably in a region with a water surplus and to wrinkle your nose at the thought of drinking clean water that's been recycled from waste. I expect if your circumstances were different you might have a very different view.
Focussed protection of the elderly and vulnerable,
with 'emergency' funding of scientists and resources needed to develop the appropriate treatment and care.
oh and no criminalisation of normal human behaviour
the channeling of cash spent propping up the economies into the improvement of the social welfare and health system
With regards his philanthropy consider dirty drinking water and lack of good sewerage systems and the consequent diseases it generates. Billy Goats foundation does describe some involvement in making this better. I'm pretty sure it doesn't take an army of scientists to sort this problem out so why hasn't he done it? and why has he developed a toilet that turns excrement into drinkable water? A better metaphor for the behaviour of these characters I could not come up with
I'm sorry, but this must be the most naive, simplistic, dumb thing I have ever heard in my life. I don't consider myself an expert on the topic but just by musing for a few minutes I can think of lots of reasons why problems of water scarcity and sanitation haven't just been "sorted out". Think about the places where water is scarce. Different geography, different cultures, different everything.
As for "turning excrement into drinkable water", what is it that you think the water cycle does? Do you think the water you're drinking hasn't been inside a living thing before? On a shorter time-frame, what do you think happens to the waste you flush away? You live in Sheffield, yes? Well then your waste heads on down to the big set of tanks opposite Meadowhall. The solid component of the waste gets separated from the liquid component and the liquid component is treated to reduce the concentrations of things like ammonia and BOD, and then it is discharged to the River Don where fish, (increasingly including salmonid fish), swim around in it. As it happens, this water then flows down to the sea. If you lived in York your water supply would most likely come from the River Ouse. Upstream of York there are sewage works which discharge their treated waste to the river from which you extract your drinking water. To say you were drinking other people's excrement would be fantastically simplistic and would be to ignore the complexity of the issue - your specialty.
How nice for you to sit comfortably in a region with a water surplus and to wrinkle your nose at the thought of drinking clean water that's been recycled from waste. I expect if your circumstances were different you might have a very different view.
and why has he developed a toilet that turns excrement into drinkable water?
Accept my apology
Accept my apology
I will not. I demand satisfaction. You and me at dawn. Two unmarked syringes. One AstraZeneca, one Pfizer. The winner will just clot out, the loser becomes an immortal genome super-soldier - a slave of the government for all eternity.
Accept my apology
I will not. I demand satisfaction. You and me at dawn. Two unmarked syringes. One AstraZeneca, one Pfizer. The winner will just clot out, the loser becomes an immortal genome super-soldier - a slave of the government for all eternity.
Apparently there's been a bit of research into what drives conspiracy theorists during Covid, the dark triad test of personality has been used to identify problematic aspects of personalities in these groups including sadism, narcissism etc. I found this one online on the BBC website. I scored 'infrequently vile' haha. I wonder what BilL would score :worms:
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20151123-how-dark-is-your-personality
Back to CV19.
Here in Manchester there has been an uptick in case numbers (c20%) in the last week. I suspect thats driven partly by the large number of lateral flow tests being taken by school children at the moment (the figures show reported test results increasing massively). Wondering how much of this uptick in cases is down to increased testing or increased transmission (e.g. schools going back)? Or of course both.
Back to CV19.
Here in Manchester there has been an uptick in case numbers (c20%) in the last week. I suspect thats driven partly by the large number of lateral flow tests being taken by school children at the moment (the figures show reported test results increasing massively). Wondering how much of this uptick in cases is down to increased testing or increased transmission (e.g. schools going back)? Or of course both.
My folks' area have rising rates which are being blamed on the local prison. It is certainly true that prisons are in crisis with covid cases rising rapidly (3 times the infection rates within the community was the stat I read yesterday) and with HMP Manchester being a huge prison (well over a thousand people housed there plus staff) I wonder if there might be a link...?
My folks' area have rising rates which are being blamed on the local prison. It is certainly true that prisons are in crisis with covid cases rising rapidly (3 times the infection rates within the community was the stat I read yesterday) and with HMP Manchester being a huge prison (well over a thousand people housed there plus staff) I wonder if there might be a link...?
Back to CV19.
Here in Manchester there has been an uptick in case numbers (c20%) in the last week. I suspect thats driven partly by the large number of lateral flow tests being taken by school children at the moment (the figures show reported test results increasing massively). Wondering how much of this uptick in cases is down to increased testing or increased transmission (e.g. schools going back)? Or of course both.
My folks' area have rising rates which are being blamed on the local prison. It is certainly true that prisons are in crisis with covid cases rising rapidly (3 times the infection rates within the community was the stat I read yesterday) and with HMP Manchester being a huge prison (well over a thousand people housed there plus staff) I wonder if there might be a link...?
My folks' area have rising rates which are being blamed on the local prison. It is certainly true that prisons are in crisis with covid cases rising rapidly (3 times the infection rates within the community was the stat I read yesterday) and with HMP Manchester being a huge prison (well over a thousand people housed there plus staff) I wonder if there might be a link...?
A prison sounds to me like the perfect breeding ground for transmission. Add to the inmates x amount of people who work there and enter and leave on a daily basis and I'd have thought you would have a crazy amount of possible transmission vectors?
My folks' area have rising rates which are being blamed on the local prison. It is certainly true that prisons are in crisis with covid cases rising rapidly (3 times the infection rates within the community was the stat I read yesterday) and with HMP Manchester being a huge prison (well over a thousand people housed there plus staff) I wonder if there might be a link...?
A prison sounds to me like the perfect breeding ground for transmission. Add to the inmates x amount of people who work there and enter and leave on a daily basis and I'd have thought you would have a crazy amount of possible transmission vectors?
The secure estate spent a long time being very proud of their very low infection rates. They effectively locked down all prisons right at the start - 23 and a half hour a day bang up, no visits, no education or support staff allowed in etc. - this has led to a lot of concerns around residivism (education and family connections are known to be the best motivator in desistence) as well as mental health.
I'm not sure what has changed recently, but you're right, once it's in it is inevitably going to run rife.
I don't think rising case rates are hugely relevant when deaths stay low. As I think we discussed a few pages back they were always going to go up when schools went back. As long as the death rates stay steady I think it's all good, no?
I don't think rising case rates are hugely relevant when deaths stay low. As I think we discussed a few pages back they were always going to go up when schools went back. As long as the death rates stay steady I think it's all good, no?
And hospital admissions stay low, too.
I suppose the mutation risk goes up with the case rate though?
My folks' area have rising rates which are being blamed on the local prison. It is certainly true that prisons are in crisis with covid cases rising rapidly (3 times the infection rates within the community was the stat I read yesterday) and with HMP Manchester being a huge prison (well over a thousand people housed there plus staff) I wonder if there might be a link...?
A prison sounds to me like the perfect breeding ground for transmission. Add to the inmates x amount of people who work there and enter and leave on a daily basis and I'd have thought you would have a crazy amount of possible transmission vectors?
The secure estate spent a long time being very proud of their very low infection rates. They effectively locked down all prisons right at the start - 23 and a half hour a day bang up, no visits, no education or support staff allowed in etc. - this has led to a lot of concerns around residivism (education and family connections are known to be the best motivator in desistence) as well as mental health.
I'm not sure what has changed recently, but you're right, once it's in it is inevitably going to run rife.
Would that mean eating in cells? I don’t really know much about conditions in Cat A/B, I sort of assume it’s communal dinning/bathroom, but apart from watching old episodes of “Porridge” and visiting the Dartmoor prison museum, i have no clue. We got some info on Cat C and open, before the parole hearings (as an aside, it seems it was odd for a convicted murderer to go from B straight to open).
I’m imagining it to be as hard to stop the spread of infection in a prison as it has proved to be on several ships, or care homes. Once it’s in, it’s in virus heaven.
I don't think rising case rates are hugely relevant when deaths stay low. As I think we discussed a few pages back they were always going to go up when schools went back. As long as the death rates stay steady I think it's all good, no?
And hospital admissions stay low, too.
I suppose the mutation risk goes up with the case rate though?
I don't think rising case rates are hugely relevant when deaths stay low. As I think we discussed a few pages back they were always going to go up when schools went back. As long as the death rates stay steady I think it's all good, no?
And hospital admissions stay low, too.
I suppose the mutation risk goes up with the case rate though?
Testing numbers have (more than?) doubled since the schools went back... that’s got to be a factor surely here in increased (or not suppressed) case rates
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Hospital admissions continue to plummet too.
Testing numbers have (more than?) doubled since the schools went back... that’s got to be a factor surely here in increased (or not suppressed) case rates
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Do you mean specifically in terms of Covid? (The "in this context" bit)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions/januarytojune2020
I don't know if they'll do an update at some point to bring in the full year. But in terms of what I was looking for it's pretty good, from initial inspection, in that it shows standardised mortality rates, then compared to the five year average weekly and cumulatively, amongst other things, for cities and countries in western Europe (including, for the purpose of this discussion, Stockholm and Sweden).
Andy, why do you think vax hesitancy is so much higher in Europe than the UK? I've read a few pieces but nothing hugely convincing..
Andy, why do you think vax hesitancy is so much higher in Europe than the UK? I've read a few pieces but nothing hugely convincing..
Just came across some data on this; UK and Denmark are 1 and 2 in openness to taking the vaccine at 76.3% and 72% respectively (why it isn't 90%+ everywhere I willl never understand).
There's then quite a steep drop to Sweden at 61.8%. Netherlands, Italy, Norway & Germany are all in the 59-61% range. The US is at 47.2% (you wonder if they'll run out of people willing to be vaccinated quite soon, or if people will begin changing their minds?). Japan, Singapore, & S Korea all under 50%.
In France, shockingly, the figure is just 40.7.
In some ways, the real question is not why is vaccine hesitancy so much higher in Europe, but rather why is it so low in the UK (and DK, to a pretty similar degree).
Source: Imperial College, 17/03/21
Hmmm, just seen a report of poll last week that found 71% of Germans willing to be vaccinated, a fall of 2 percentage points on the start of March, so who knows what the true figures are. I can imagine exactly how the question is asked could produce varying results - "are you willing to consider vaccination?" is a very different question to "do you feel any hesitancy?" - but it's hard to imagine that explaining a 20% gap.
I do wonder if the UK thing is a bit of national pride? "At the front of vaccination" in the world, general faith in the NHS, and no hesitancy or suspension of vaccinations when any "issues" have been flagged up.
I was speaking to a friend in Kansas, and she said her husband has had the jab already, and she is due next week, they are both in their 40s. I was surprised they are that far down the line already, but it might be that he travels a lot for business?
Lies, damned lies and statistics?
I do wonder if the UK thing is a bit of national pride? "At the front of vaccination" in the world, general faith in the NHS, and no hesitancy or suspension of vaccinations when any "issues" have been flagged up.
I was speaking to a friend in Kansas, and she said her husband has had the jab already, and she is due next week, they are both in their 40s. I was surprised they are that far down the line already, but it might be that he travels a lot for business?
Various experts have pointed out these opinion poll numbers don't match real numbers in the first age groups to be vaccinated. Nor do they take into account face-to-face evidence of the vast majority of family and friends having reactions from a slightly sore arm to minor flu like symptoms. Nor the practicalities of things like air travel for holidays.
Vaccine hesitancy is a concern. If the surveys (https://oxfordhealthbrc.nihr.ac.uk/almost-a-third-of-uk-population-are-very-unsure-or-strongly-hesitant-about-covid-19-vaccination/) suggesting only ~72% intend to get vaccinated, we’ll be on the borderline of achieving herd immunity. You’d hope, and data suggests, opinions will shift in a positive direction as millions are vaccinated with no major ill-effects. A vocal minority on social media may be middle-aged blokes but hesitancy is slightly more prevalent in the young (and women and low waged). All these are small effects so there isn’t a ‘typical’ vaccine refuser.
As spidermonkey09 says, hesitancy is worryingly high in people self-reporting black and Pakistani ethnicity (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.27.20248899v1).
Some interesting perspectives from this man. His credentials seem sound. I will be interested to see what’s dug up on him and how long it will be before he is a broken man. This is one of his longer interviews and the link below is his open letter
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MkLIFDwORXc
https://mcusercontent.com/92561d6dedb66a43fe9a6548f/files/bead7203-0798-4ac8-abe2-076208015556/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concert_Geert_Vanden_Bossche.01.pdf
As we're getting closer to low case numbers, with still fairly widespread testing I suspect (and this is what I'm musing over) that that false positives will become more and more influential on public policy.
I read this, no idea if it's all BS as it's not published etc., but it does have a table from the ONS showing the number of "positive cases" considered so from just one gene expression. The WHO recommends counting that as inconclusive until re-tested. https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2102/2102.11612.pdf
In Scotland, we not down to very low numbers in hospital, deaths and ICU:
I think you’re probably right that testing is moving into the “ not the right thing to watch” category for a variety of reasons, not least the people who will test positive, who have been vaccinated and at very low risk of serious illness.I do agree with this though. It has been made clear that rates will be allowed to rise in England as long hospitalisations don't rise too much.
I imagine the government/SAGE have thought of that.
Maybe.
As we're getting closer to low case numbers, with still fairly widespread testing I suspect (and this is what I'm musing over) that that false positives will become more and more influential on public policy.
I read this, no idea if it's all BS as it's not published etc., but it does have a table from the ONS showing the number of "positive cases" considered so from just one gene expression. The WHO recommends counting that as inconclusive until re-tested. https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2102/2102.11612.pdf
In Scotland, we not down to very low numbers in hospital, deaths and ICU:
I can't comment on the science behind that paper other than to point out that the B1.1.7 (Kent) variant is missing one of the original target genes of PCR tests in most of the UK (not quite all, as some test centres eg in the East of England used a different PCR test, I'm not sure about Scotland), so the best match you can hope in all those areas for is 2 out of 3, rather than 3 out of 3. The target genes weren't changed, at least to begin with, because they found that looking for cases with only 2 genes showing was a very good way of tracking the spread of the variant across the country without having to wait for genome sequencing to be done. You see this tracking technique referred to as S gene target failure (SGTF.) I explain this because obviously if a perfect test only sees 2 target genes, you will have a lot more tests only seeing 1 gene than if a perfect test sees 3, which was originally the case, and the manufacturer's intent. In practice a test now seeing 1 gene has only missed 1, not missed 2 as would originally have had to be the case.
Got AZ at lunchtime, very slick operation. Will see how I feel, but it is looking sunny tomorrow, ooh side effects.Don't expect too much of yourself, Chris. Felt fine on the day and then barely left the sofa the day after.
Anyway, back to your point Paul - I'd assume they have a risk assessment that all staff can see?? ;)
It's interesting to read that the legislation works in steps, which like the tiers allow for local measures. Didn't Bolton just dare vote Labour too? :devangel:
The response in Blackburn looks to be to push for more vaccination (with anyone over 18 eligible in 3-wards):
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1392840043803287563?s=20
Jen Williams was also reporting that SAGE were meeting re: Bolton (perhaps yesterday).
Until the case numbers start markedly affecting admissions and deaths I don't think it will make too much difference. There is plenty of real world data out there suggesting the vaccines work fine against this variant. Whitty said as much in the last press conference. I confess to feeling slightly perplexed at the sense of panic.
Until the case numbers start markedly affecting admissions and deaths I don't think it will make too much difference. There is plenty of real world data out there suggesting the vaccines work fine against this variant. Whitty said as much in the last press conference. I confess to feeling slightly perplexed at the sense of panic.
Well - back in November with a Kent variant people were saying the same as you have above… and that didn’t turn out very well. However, the background (60%+ vaccinated) is significantly different.
Living in Greater Manchester - there’s no PANIC here - but certainly amongst those I’ve talked to a sense of dread that once again we’ll be in some sort of special measures / local lockdown again soon.
Which are totally valid worries given the rumblings from the govt. Also, don’t forget that this region had only 4-6 weeks early last summer when everything was open - then went into local restrictions from late July. Nationally - it’s been the most restricted region since this all started. Personally - I don’t care about going to the pub or eating out - but it would be nice for our Lad to be able to see his Grandparents for an extended period - and for us to go away for a week or so.
Did regional restrictions not work? It seems like they did to me.
I think the tiers system worked in the past and appears to be a sensible approach.
Lancs went into no household mixing around the end of July (Leicester etc.). They didn't appear to work locally here
QuoteLancs went into no household mixing around the end of July (Leicester etc.). They didn't appear to work locally here
Okay, here's Leicester. Firts region to go into local restrictions, on 4th July. Seems to have worked.
(http://adamlong.co.uk/files/export(1).png)
Ribble valley?
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Ribble%20Valley
As I said, the numbers back then just look tiny now.
Local restrictions are a waste of time. National or nothing as far as I'm concerned, they spread enormous resentment and don't work. All the examples linked above of them "working" are pre the emergence of the more transmissible Kent variant. Given the main concern re the Indian variant is its enhanced transmissibility over the *Kent* variant, the chances of local restrictions stopping the spread seem basically zero, so not sure what those advocating it think they would achieve.
Given the above, I'm interested in what people think the endgame is here. Lock down and wait for a newer vaccine? For me the game is completely different with so many vaccinated so I am very much in the proceed as planned until we see evidence on the ground of the strategy not working. Not least because getting any significant buyin from the public without evidence of, to be blunt, deaths and hospital admissions, will be nigh on impossible.
Assuming the vaccines hold up, more people could be hospitalised than in the first wave – putting the NHS at risk – if the variant is much more than 30% more transmissible, University of Warwick models show. At 40% more transmissible, hospitalisations could reach 6,000 per day, far above the peak of the second wave, and 10,000 per day if the variant is 50% more transmissible.
That is if we do nothing. If step three easing of restrictions in England on Monday is cancelled, the third wave will be far more modest, reaching 300 hospitalisations per day, even if the virus spreads 50% more easily than the Kent version.
Depressing news evening!
I still don't really understand where we are trying to get to. Are we waiting in hope of a vaccine that reduces transmissibility? for how long? And what about the variant after that; viruses mutate, that's what they do.
I do think a discussion is going to have to take place very soon about the levels of deaths we will be forced to tolerate in exchange for a semi normal existence, if that Guardian piece is even halfway correct. The alternative is living like this for years, no?
I don't mean to be callous in the slightest, the whole thing is shit, but if vaccines don't get us out of this, then what's the plan after that?
I'm obviously missing something here, so would someone mind explaining how we are set for another wave just as big as January. We're on to about 55% vaccination, much higher than that of elderly and vulnerable.
Are we just talking those who haven't had it/the few it doesn't work for/had it less than 3 weeks ago? That seems like a much smaller population to be getting ill and hospitalised
I do think a discussion is going to have to take place very soon about the levels of deaths we will be forced to tolerate in exchange for a semi normal existence, if that Guardian piece is even halfway correct. The alternative is living like this for years, no?
Or actually implementing test track isolate and see how much of a brake it can apply to transmission.
I'm obviously missing something here, so would someone mind explaining how we are set for another wave just as big as January. We're on to about 55% vaccination, much higher than that of elderly and vulnerable.
Are we just talking those who haven't had it/the few it doesn't work for/had it less than 3 weeks ago? That seems like a much smaller population to be getting ill and hospitalised
Depressing news evening!
I still don't really understand where we are trying to get to. Are we waiting in hope of a vaccine that reduces transmissibility? for how long? And what about the variant after that; viruses mutate, that's what they do.
I do think a discussion is going to have to take place very soon about the levels of deaths we will be forced to tolerate in exchange for a semi normal existence, if that Guardian piece is even halfway correct. The alternative is living like this for years, no?
I don't mean to be callous in the slightest, the whole thing is shit, but if vaccines don't get us out of this, then what's the plan after that?
Looking at the case data for India. The cases look like they might have peaked. I am not sure I fully understand why this is the case despite not having a national lockdown or a high proportion of vaccinated population.
Also, why is there a tendency for the peaks to be symmetrical? i.e. the quicker the cases numbers rise, the quicker they fall (at least initially).
Indeed. Perhaps a place to start is what death rates per activity are deemed socially acceptable - or acceptable by most people.The HSE's Reducing Risks, Protecting People (R2P2) is probably the starting point for looking at this. Even has climbing risk in there somewhere (don't know how good an estimate it is though).
Eg. A 100 mile motorway journey
A short haul flight
Taking an aspirin
Etc.. etc..
Not got the time today (sorry) but suspect there are figures on stuff like this from which we could compare… if you get my jist.
With covid we may hopefully get to a point where deaths are so low that it is comparable to deaths from things like smoking and obesity.
Whose death is ever necessary?Everyone's, eventually.
The interesting (and perhaps concerning) issue for me is that given the way vaccines have been sold as the way out, if it turns out that they aren't, how will that affect public compliance/attitudes towards risk?Yeah, without an alternative and convincing "exit plan" I think peoples' ability to tolerate deaths from covid as a by-product of not having too many rules will increase significantly. Unless there's real risk of major impact to other NHS services due to overload I can't see how most people would buy into more restrictions.. I wouldn't.
Yeah, without an alternative and convincing "exit plan" I think peoples' ability to tolerate deaths from covid as a by-product of not having too many rules will increase significantly. Unless there's real risk of major impact to other NHS services due to overload I can't see how most people would buy into more restrictions.. I wouldn't.
Yeah, without an alternative and convincing "exit plan" I think peoples' ability to tolerate deaths from covid as a by-product of not having too many rules will increase significantly. Unless there's real risk of major impact to other NHS services due to overload I can't see how most people would buy into more restrictions.. I wouldn't.
Isnt the whole point that the modelling does suggest a risk of service overload still? I.e. by the time you take the older not-taken-up (either deliberately, or the people who have fallen through the cracks without the intent and are in the same position - we've got high coverage so far, but that's still 1:10 or something, right?), the people for whom the vaccine hasn't worked (1:10? 1:20?), and all the people of hasn't reached yet (most of whom should be low risk, save for those with vulnerability that hasn't been identified yet) there's still a pool large enough, especially if the variant is more transmissible and the herd immunity threshold therefore higher, to crash the system in the absence of any restrictions?
If we had finished vaccinating, this might be a different scenario - but we have obviously already committed to a "acceptable deaths" strategy, we aren't going for zero covid, so I think implicitly that conversation has already been had - I don't really recognise the viewpoint that says "you know, one day were going to have to have that discussion" - perhaps not in public it hasn't, but politically that's a done deal and that's the path we're heading down already
70 deaths in last week due to COVID (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/)Not commenting on the underlying point, but isn’t this a bit of a meaningless comparison given the nature of Covid deaths and death trends? A long-term rate of obesity deaths driven by a long history of poor health in the UK, compared to the possible low point of a highly variable death rate that has all the benefits of having come out of a long period of restrictions. You could just as easily have chosen a week in January with >8,000 Covid deaths.
~600 deaths per week due to obesity (https://www.bhf.org.uk/what-we-do/news-from-the-bhf/news-archive/2021/april/31000-heart-and-circulatory-deaths-obesity-each-year)
70 deaths in last week due to COVID (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/)Not commenting on the underlying point, but isn’t this a bit of a meaningless comparison given the nature of Covid deaths and death trends? A long-term rate of obesity deaths driven by a long history of poor health in the UK, compared to the possible low point of a highly variable death rate that has all the benefits of having come out of a long period of restrictions. You could just as easily have chosen a week in January with >8,000 Covid deaths.
~600 deaths per week due to obesity (https://www.bhf.org.uk/what-we-do/news-from-the-bhf/news-archive/2021/april/31000-heart-and-circulatory-deaths-obesity-each-year)
I’m not suggesting you’re trying to make a particular point with those numbers, just that they don’t add much/anything. The valid comparison in my mind would be to a long-term rate of Covid deaths with an acceptable level of restrictions in place.
I'm certainly not trying to advocate for endless lockdowns, but it seems totally absurd today that all the health advisers, and many government ministers are advising people not to do any of the things that they're lifting restrictions on. It seems as though they're trying to absolve themselves of responsibility and acknowledging that they're not competent enough to cope while trying to keep business leaders happy. Meanwhile the majority of the population who don't really read or watch much if any news get on with packing out pubs and Ryanair flights to go and bring some more variants in. Self quarantine is a total fallacy, I don't seriously believe anyone does it properly. I just can't see it going well.
Good morning. Groups of up to six can meet inside and up to 30 outside in England, Wales and much of Scotland (Glasgow and Moray will remain under a degree of further restrictions to combat the greater number of cases there) as the United Kingdom heads towards the end of lockdown.
But two things are causing consternation in government: the first is the new, faster-spreading B.1.617.2 variant, the second is the small group of British people who may refuse to get the vaccine. (Those of us who have yet to be offered a vaccine may be entitled at this point to feel somewhat irate that the English government's thinking is already turning to how to deal with the recalcitrant, but that's a debate for another time.)
The plain facts are these: the evidence so far is that the B.1.617.2 variant responds well to vaccines, it just spreads faster. But it is a cause of particular anxiety for the government because of how long India - from where this variant springs - remained off the United Kingdom's red list. If B.1.617.2 does mean a delay to the great unlocking, that will be in no small part the government's fault, not least because 18 months on we are still no closer to having an effective approach on isolation, whether through central quarantine or sufficiently generous sick pay.
So you can see why it suits Downing Street to nudge the conversation away from that issue and towards the minority of vaccine-hesitant Brits. But again, there are some important facts to be aware of: the most vaccine-hesitant British person, regardless of class, race or religion, is more likely to be keen on getting vaccinated than the median person in most other countries. (For reasons that aren't fully clear, the British public is really keen on getting vaccinated: and thankfully, thus far, no amount of disinformation, whether it be spread by traditional media a la the MMR vaccine, by religious organisations as it has been in the case of HPV or on social media in the case of the coronavirus vaccines has yet to make a dent in that.)
So there is a choice to be made about whether to live in some form of perpetual on-again, off-again arrangement, because we are never going to have a 100 per cent vaccinated population at home or abroad. As the lockdown ends, the British government will need to have a grown-up conversation, both about its own shortcomings but equally importantly about the level of risk that we are willing to have in exchange for a return to normality.
I thought this was quite succinct in the NS newsletter this morning.Quote...the British government will need to have a grown-up conversation, both about its own shortcomings...
If anyone else is in Lancs (or S. Cumbria) the eligibility criteria for booking a vaccination has been temporarily lowered with three days of 'surge' vaccination available Tues-Thurs this week.
We're both booked for tomorrow.
I'm obviously missing something here, so would someone mind explaining how we are set for another wave just as big as January. We're on to about 55% vaccination, much higher than that of elderly and vulnerable.
Are we just talking those who haven't had it/the few it doesn't work for/had it less than 3 weeks ago? That seems like a much smaller population to be getting ill and hospitalised
70 deaths in last week due to COVID (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/)Not commenting on the underlying point, but isn’t this a bit of a meaningless comparison given the nature of Covid deaths and death trends?
~600 deaths per week due to obesity (https://www.bhf.org.uk/what-we-do/news-from-the-bhf/news-archive/2021/april/31000-heart-and-circulatory-deaths-obesity-each-year)
With covid we may hopefully get to a point where deaths are so low that it is comparable to deaths from things like smoking and obesity.and found it interesting to benchmark where we are now and where we'd need to be (~85 deaths per day) for COVID and obesity to be killing a similar number. Obviously this was not true in Jan and is only a snapshot in time, but I took that as read/implicit.
I’ve just had my second dose slot moved from 8 June to 22 May.
Didn’t request it, just got a text.
I was just the opposite no side effects at all from the first one where as with the second one I felt like I’d got Dom’s for a week.I’ve just had my second dose slot moved from 8 June to 22 May.
Didn’t request it, just got a text.
Nice. If it's any reassurance, I had my second vaccine a couple of weeks ago, and had extremely low level of side effects compared to feeling pretty ropey after the first one.
I’ve just had my second dose slot moved from 8 June to 22 May.
Didn’t request it, just got a text.
Nice. If it's any reassurance, I had my second vaccine a couple of weeks ago, and had extremely low level of side effects compared to feeling pretty ropey after the first one.
I am told that the anecdotal evidence is that with the Pfizer vaccine the majority of people feel ok after the first jab but a bit run down after the second, whereas with the Astra Zenica it's the first jab that's more likely to leave you feeling knackered, but you're fine after the second.
Got my second AZ on Friday - will report how it compares to the first (that was pretty bad for 24 hours tbh).
I was just the opposite no side effects at all from the first one where as with the second one I felt like I’d got Dom’s for a week.I’ve just had my second dose slot moved from 8 June to 22 May.
Didn’t request it, just got a text.
Nice. If it's any reassurance, I had my second vaccine a couple of weeks ago, and had extremely low level of side effects compared to feeling pretty ropey after the first one.
My n=1 re: AZ was true.
Woke up feeling fine after jab at 7:30pm night before, and then went off a cliff at about 10am!
and much wailing and gnashing of teeth before the jab (she had serious anxiety issues)
a single and relentless mission, protecting people from threats to this country’s health.?
It will report directly to ministers and support the clinical leadership of the chief medical officers and will be dedicated to the investigation and prevention of infectious diseases and external health threats.
All done, in and out within 5 minutes and ten minutes before my appointment time of 09:30. No queue but steady stream and no unoccupied stations.
Went yesterday afternoon for Mrs OMM’s first. Pfizer, because she’s 12 years younger than me and apparently not allowed the AZ.
Apart from a sore arm and much wailing and gnashing of teeth before the jab (she had serious anxiety issues), no obvious side affects for her.
I don’t even have a sore arm or even the mild fatigue I felt the first time.
There’s something fishy (more fishy than normal) about how the Govt and PHE are (not) releasing data about the growth of the Indian variant.
https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1396373990986375171?s=21
Focusing on the ball rather than the player - the points about the vaccine efficacy rates being played as a success for 167.2 in the media are very pertinent. That for only one dose it’s c.30% is buried deep down in only some pages on news websites.
Re slow info release - The government has played a similar trick before giving information during/jist after one of Boris’ pressers.
We are in a different (vaccinated) position now, but the Govt response now is remarkably similar to the (relative) non response then…
I suspect the media are pushing certain lines sensing there is a fatigue for COVID news in the population - though mistrust (to a high degree) how our government is treating us. I wish we could be told things straight - instead of having to rely on leaks…
I'm still not sure it's bad news tbh, given the rumblings about it escaping vaccines completely, excellent protection after two doses is a great result. The takeaway from this is that it is critical to get your second dose, which tbf Hancock was banging the drum for this morning.
More generally, I think this is part of a growing disinterest in "bad" or negative covid news in public life. I am a total newshound and I am definitely finding myself being dismissive of articles about the newest variant or some doomsday story of vaccine escape. Some outlets have been worse than others, the Guardian being one I have been particularly unimpressed by. I'm all for informing the public but there comes a point when being fed constant stories about new variants has a boy who cried wolf effect, which I think we are probably at. If/when a variant arrives we need to be seriously worried about it will take root in large part due to the way other, non scary variants have been reported and presented.
Focusing on the ball rather than the player - the points about the vaccine efficacy rates being played as a success for 167.2 in the media are very pertinent. That for only one dose it’s c.30% is buried deep down in only some pages on news websites.
Re slow info release - The government has played a similar trick before giving information during/jist after one of Boris’ pressers.
I'm still not sure it's bad news tbh, given the rumblings about it escaping vaccines completely, excellent protection after two doses is a great result. The takeaway from this is that it is critical to get your second dose, which tbf Hancock was banging the drum for this morning.
More generally, I think this is part of a growing disinterest in "bad" or negative covid news in public life. I am a total newshound and I am definitely finding myself being dismissive of articles about the newest variant or some doomsday story of vaccine escape. Some outlets have been worse than others, the Guardian being one I have been particularly unimpressed by. I'm all for informing the public but there comes a point when being fed constant stories about new variants has a boy who cried wolf effect, which I think we are probably at. If/when a variant arrives we need to be seriously worried about it will take root in large part due to the way other, non scary variants have beetargn reported and presented.
I'm still not sure it's bad news tbh, given the rumblings about it escaping vaccines completely, excellent protection after two doses is a great result. The takeaway from this is that it is critical to get your second dose, which tbf Hancock was banging the drum for this morning.
More generally, I think this is part of a growing disinterest in "bad" or negative covid news in public life. I am a total newshound and I am definitely finding myself being dismissive of articles about the newest variant or some doomsday story of vaccine escape. Some outlets have been worse than others, the Guardian being one I have been particularly unimpressed by. I'm all for informing the public but there comes a point when being fed constant stories about new variants has a boy who cried wolf effect, which I think we are probably at. If/when a variant arrives we need to be seriously worried about it will take root in large part due to the way other, non scary variants have been reported and presented.
I agree the news about a lack of evidence of vaccine escape is great news. The 30% figure is to be expected it you talk to the experts. It's a number that represents risk of infection. The percentage protection against serious illness is much higher. The risk is a population risk ( more than half of single jab vaccinated individuals can spread new variant covid).
On your second paragraph I disagree. The Guardian does have a habit of going off on one with some editorials and some opinions but do people really focus on such things these days? It's scientific pandemic journalism output on covid has been very good and it's important that it's available without a paywall (the FT deserve praise for this as well). Those 'crying wolf' are experts on SAGE and Indie SAGE. Half the press were in full on covid denial for much of 2020 and you single out the Guardian reporting expert opinion?
Our government dithering in the face of data (whilst claiming to follow the data) is responsible for about half the covid deaths in the UK and about half of long covid (estimated at a million) and much economic damage through lockdowns being longer than they needed to be. Even last week they buried data on school infections (Guardian reported) and for the day of the elections they delayed release of India variant bad news. Last week "Inews" showed front page large mixed colour zone queues at Heathrow due to home office underfunding and inaction..... the incompetence never stopped.
On long covid my married couple triathlon friends are still unable to undertake aerobic exercise, a year in, without an exhaustion crash for days. Interestingly that's actually a big improvement following getting jabbed. They can now do some some basic stuff and just feel a bit tired, if careful.
I agree the news about a lack of evidence of vaccine escape is great news. The 30% figure is to be expected it you talk to the experts. It's a number that represents risk of infection. The percentage protection against serious illness is much higher. The risk is a population risk ( more than half of single jab vaccinated individuals can spread new variant covid).
On your second paragraph I disagree. The Guardian does have a habit of going off on one with some editorials and some opinions but do people really focus on such things these days? It's scientific pandemic journalism output on covid has been very good and it's important that it's available without a paywall (the FT deserve praise for this as well). Those 'crying wolf' are experts on SAGE and Indie SAGE. Half the press were in full on covid denial for much of 2020 and you single out the Guardian reporting expert opinion?
Our government dithering in the face of data (whilst claiming to follow the data) is responsible for about half the covid deaths in the UK and about half of long covid (estimated at a million) and much economic damage through lockdowns being longer than they needed to be. Even last week they buried data on school infections (Guardian reported) and for the day of the elections they delayed release of India variant bad news. Last week "Inews" showed front page large mixed colour zone queues at Heathrow due to home office underfunding and inaction..... the incompetence never stopped.
On long covid my married couple triathlon friends are still unable to undertake aerobic exercise, a year in, without an exhaustion crash for days. Interestingly that's actually a big improvement following getting jabbed. They can now do some some basic stuff and just feel a bit tired, if careful.
10% of those who had symptomatic Covid have long covid symptoms (symptoms persisting more than 12 weeks).
I think the problem is in the presentation of SAGE as a single unified body, whereas in reality it represents a spectrum of opinion with different attitudes to risk. That, after all, is its job, to provide a spectrum of the scientific opinion. The Guardian only ever quotes the more risk averse members, the rest of the press only ever quotes the more bullish ones. This isn't an anti Guardian thing, I think its a great paper, but I think its reporting on Covid recently has been poor. That's not to say other papers/media aren't poor as well, but The Guardian isn't sacred. I'm not 'singling it out,' I'm saying its not a paragon of virtue. That said I am obviously glad it exists; the rest of the media is as bad if not considerably worse.
Independent SAGE was necessary this time last year but I think has well outlived its usefulness and seems to be a meal ticket to media appearances for many of its contributors. It has also been consistently wrong on almost every aspect of the unlocking since March. They oppose for the sake of opposition without ever providing concrete alternatives and a way out of the situation. I also think some of their recent scaremongering over vaccine effectiveness on the Indian variant has sailed dangerously close to encouraging vaccine hesitancy which is unforgivable.
I don't think anyone mentioned long covid. What you describe sounds really bad; I hope they continue to improve. I know several people suffering from similar symptoms. However, I don't think the small risk of long covid is a reason to maintain restrictions.
That's sort of my point. Probably hundreds of thousands are suffering still. All that human pain and waste is ongoing even when cases get back to near zero (plus the pain in the families who faced needless death). Maybe 10% of the covid infected in the UK a small risk... hmmm!?
I don't think you are trolling Spidermonkey - but you're coming across to me (n=1) as that...
FWIW, I think open air hospitality is fine as it is presently organised. I think indoor - is much less so and I would argue against that at this stage - especially as those most likely to go out are those most likely to be unvaccinated. Gyms / Walls with a limit on entry numbers seems to be working well. The Green/Amber/Red travel thing is a farce - whilst green and red are clear (I have issues with how well its enforced but its clear) Amber is a joke (for many reasons - from mixed messaging to how many amber list countries are on the FO do not travel list anyway..). I would keep facemasks in all places where they are presently required (including secondary schools - until we are sure 167.2 isnt an issue there) and put the kybosh on any sort of 'freedom day' stuff rhetoric being used...
I'm with Spidermonkey, To accuse him of trolling reflects pretty badly on you TT IMO
Shrugs. No accusing - just saying that it came accross to me a bit. A lot can get lost in forum conversation and I think it’s better to (nicely? Could I have been any gentler?) point it out rather than get cross about it..? I thought I was pretty clear that I didn’t think that was what he was doing but that’s how it came across a bit to me..
@spidermonkey - I think it’s that you keep mentioning zero COVId in such negative ways - when it’s not something anyone is really suggesting here any more. Feels a bit like I’m being prodded for a response….
I’m probably wrong - but thought it better to say than not.
@spidermonkey - I think it’s that you keep mentioning zero COVId in such negative ways - when it’s not something anyone is really suggesting here any more. Feels a bit like I’m being prodded for a response….
Alternatively perhaps you think things shouldn't open up at all, and should maybe even roll back to a more locked down state. If so I'd be interested to hear the hoped for 'endgame' of such a strategy.
That's a good post AJM. Wasn't that the idea of "data not dates" which seems to have been somewhat sidelined?
It’s been criticised for being too fast and too slow by various people but despite everything it’s remained entirely unchanged.
it feels a bit like there’s a black and white framing which says that either “we keep unlocking as we are now” or “endless lockdown/zero Covid/what’s your endgame”. Given there are a million permutations of how fast you unlock versus how fast you roll out vaccine (if you want to just mitigate system overload, you unlock once enough of the vulnerable are jabbed, if you worry about high caseloads either for mutants, long Covid prevalence etc then you wait until more vaccines have gone into arms since they protect against some of that as well), all of which give you a view on the current state (too fast, could go faster, etc etc) and a viable endgame - it seems very lacking in nuance.
Thats a fair cop. I am probably hypersensitive to suggestions that things change/slow down because I'm fed up of the whole thing and haven't even been jabbed yet!
I don't think that strategy is endorsed at all by some of the pieces shared/people quoted on the thread, which gets my back up because I essentially don't think people who don't agree with mitigation should be listened to anymore.
If you're not a 'zero covid' proponent why would you discuss covid cases returning to 'near zero'? Do you believe that cases could actually ever reach near zero and remain there? If so how?
I'm assuming covid variants are now with us for the rest of our lifetimes. Isn't discussing 'near zero' as unrealistic as discussing cases of flu 'returning to near zero'?
Now that is pointless.
Nobody wins there: stokes a load of local resentment and has zero effect because its guidance not law which people will ignore, and with justificstion. If I have learned anything from the last year its that local restrictions are useless!
Finally I don't think local restrictions are completely useless but might agree they are so leaky as not to be worthwhile.
Finally I don't think local restrictions are completely useless but might agree they are so leaky as not to be worthwhile.
I would say their effectiveness is limited when you don't actual tell anyone, don't inform local leaders, don't do a press release and just update your website!
Finally I don't think local restrictions are completely useless but might agree they are so leaky as not to be worthwhile.
I would say their effectiveness is limited when you don't actual tell anyone, don't inform local leaders, don't do a press release and just update your website!
Apparently the advice was updated on the 15th and the website update timestamped 21st... face palm etc...
I know there are a few females on here and many of you have mentioned partners so here we go...
...there is seemingly growing anecdotal evidence that the vaccine can have an effect on menstruation (pleas note, I am not saying that it is a negative effect and NO ONE is suggesting that women should not get the vaccine). However, given that it appears the data from trials wasn't even split into genders, there is (of course) no evidence around it. This study is trying to begin to plug that gap.
https://redcap.healthinstitute.illinois.edu/surveys/index.php?s=LL8TKKC8DP&utm_campaign=Invisible%20Women&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletter
However, given that it appears the data from trials wasn't even split into genders, there is (of course) no evidence around it.
I live just outside Northampton and just off the Bedford Rd - there are long traffic queues every morning as Bedfordians head into Northampton.
It's completely pointless saying stay local unless for work.
Finally I don't think local restrictions are completely useless but might agree they are so leaky as not to be worthwhile.
I would say their effectiveness is limited when you don't actual tell anyone, don't inform local leaders, don't do a press release and just update your website!
I live just outside Northampton and just off the Bedford Rd - there are long traffic queues every morning as Bedfordians head into Northampton.
It's completely pointless saying stay local unless for work.
Houghtons just outside or Yardley Hastings just outside? (I'm from East Hunsbury)
I live just outside Northampton and just off the Bedford Rd - there are long traffic queues every morning as Bedfordians head into Northampton.
It's completely pointless saying stay local unless for work.
Houghtons just outside or Yardley Hastings just outside? (I'm from East Hunsbury)
I live just outside Northampton and just off the Bedford Rd - there are long traffic queues every morning as Bedfordians head into Northampton.
It's completely pointless saying stay local unless for work.
Houghtons just outside or Yardley Hastings just outside? (I'm from East Hunsbury)
So were your family 'neen' or 'nen' in pronunciation? We were "nen" (Bugbrooke and Harpole).
Cogenhoe
So were your family 'neen' or 'nen' in pronunciation? We were "nen" (Bugbrooke and Harpole).
I live just outside Northampton and just off the Bedford Rd - there are long traffic queues every morning as Bedfordians head into Northampton.
It's completely pointless saying stay local unless for work.
Houghtons just outside or Yardley Hastings just outside? (I'm from East Hunsbury)
Cogenhoe
I don't know if a link has been posted before but this is interesting in a geeky way
https://airborne.cam/
I think we're heading for another Autumn and Winter of soaring infections, and ineffectual local lockdown. Data not dates has been a bit dubious so far at best, if they go for full or nearly full opening up on June 21, I think we're stuffed and the reliance on data will have been a total lie.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/29/covid-in-england-what-is-the-impact-of-lifting-restrictions-on-21-june?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
I don't know if a link has been posted before but this is interesting in a geeky way
https://airborne.cam/
I think we're heading for another Autumn and Winter of soaring infections, and ineffectual local lockdown. Data not dates has been a bit dubious so far at best, if they go for full or nearly full opening up on June 21, I think we're stuffed and the reliance on data will have been a total lie.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/29/covid-in-england-what-is-the-impact-of-lifting-restrictions-on-21-june?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
It will surely look very different, this time. 74% of the adult population has had it’s first vaccine dose, 48% the second and those numbers increasing by 1/4 million per day and a 1/2 million per day respectively. That’s going to massively impact the hospitalisation and death curve peaks, this Autumn.
Also, the highly localised nature of current outbreaks, with large swathes of the country seeing suppressed or extremely low rates. The official maps are a little miss leading in that respect (for instance, the South Hams show as a moderate outbreak, over a largeish area, because they have 9 new cases, some Northern areas show the same scale/colour because they’ve had 800 new cases).
If (if) the vaccine(s) succeeds in suppressing the disease into something more akin to a very bad Flu season, we will not be looking at such extreme mitigation measures.
I don't know if a link has been posted before but this is interesting in a geeky way
https://airborne.cam/
I think we're heading for another Autumn and Winter of soaring infections, and ineffectual local lockdown. Data not dates has been a bit dubious so far at best, if they go for full or nearly full opening up on June 21, I think we're stuffed and the reliance on data will have been a total lie.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/29/covid-in-england-what-is-the-impact-of-lifting-restrictions-on-21-june?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
It will surely look very different, this time. 74% of the adult population has had it’s first vaccine dose, 48% the second and those numbers increasing by 1/4 million per day and a 1/2 million per day respectively. That’s going to massively impact the hospitalisation and death curve peaks, this Autumn.
Also, the highly localised nature of current outbreaks, with large swathes of the country seeing suppressed or extremely low rates. The official maps are a little miss leading in that respect (for instance, the South Hams show as a moderate outbreak, over a largeish area, because they have 9 new cases, some Northern areas show the same scale/colour because they’ve had 800 new cases).
If (if) the vaccine(s) succeeds in suppressing the disease into something more akin to a very bad Flu season, we will not be looking at such extreme mitigation measures.
Maybe. But if the variety is 50% + more transmissible than the Kent one, it's not unlikely that we'll end up going the way of India itself by unlocking everything with a lurking reservoir of cases which will turn into a worse wave come autumn.
I am being a pessimistic bastard though.
You seem to be assuming that that vaccine is not effective against the Kent or India variant which is not the case.
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1346
...
Lot of sensible folk seem to be saying that the next week or so is when we'll get a much clearer sense of which way things are heading, and there are very strong reasons for delaying/modifying the June 21st re-opening. But the hope is that (fingers crossed) we hit "rough but manageable" rather than "oh fuck it's gone exponential, full lockdown again immediately or we're all gonna die."
I'd be more confident in your assessment, if the breadth of definition of manageable included what the deeply incompetent government could cope with. Unfortunately I slightly suspect that full opening up will be delayed slightly then everyone will try to forget about it for a couple of months, and it will then go tits up again, because the government haven't been paying attention to isolation, borders... etc
I don't know if a link has been posted before but this is interesting in a geeky way
https://airborne.cam/
I think we're heading for another Autumn and Winter of soaring infections, and ineffectual local lockdown. Data not dates has been a bit dubious so far at best, if they go for full or nearly full opening up on June 21, I think we're stuffed and the reliance on data will have been a total lie.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/29/covid-in-england-what-is-the-impact-of-lifting-restrictions-on-21-june?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Even thought they'll still be cases, that's very different to cases that a putting people in hospital. Prevention from severe cases seems likely from current data.
As an aside, I no longer even look at the guardian. I think they are doing some shameful scaremongering
Zero daily covid deaths in the UK (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57320320) for the first time since March 2020. I guess it's likely this will get corrected upward at some point. Still an absolutely remarkable milestone after averaging around a thousand deaths a day in January.
The only genuine full-on doom from most experts is a real risk of variant vaccine escape (from running 'too hot' again here, or via our leaky borders).
I guess the chances of rogue variant will diminish as more and more people are vaccinated? The less transmissions, the less opportunity to mutate on each transmission which means the metaphorical net will begin to gradually close, hopefully before a vaccine evading variant "escapes" and if it does, we are essentially back to square 1, unless it is effectively contained.
I guess the chances of rogue variant will diminish as more and more people are vaccinated? The less transmissions, the less opportunity to mutate on each transmission which means the metaphorical net will begin to gradually close, hopefully before a vaccine evading variant "escapes" and if it does, we are essentially back to square 1, unless it is effectively contained.
That is only true if looking at it through a UK prism and our very good vaccination rates. The global south has very low vax rates and so its still entirely plausible, even likely, that variants will emerge there and eventually make their way to fully vaxxed nations.
Vaccine evasive variants are more likely to occur where vaccines induce suitable evolutionary pressure, so, um, here (the West/N hemisphere). The slower and less efficient a nation’s vaccine roll out, the more likely.Struggling with this - seems to contradict itself. More variants occur where there's suitable evolutionary pressure and this pressure is higher where the vaccine rollout is slower? Care to explain?
Obviously, at some point in the future, that pressure will move south as poorer countries extend their vaccine programs.
At a guess and from badly remembering what I read...
A mutation, any mutation, can occur anywhere at any time, of course.
If a population develops or induces a sufficiently high level of immunity to the prevalent/existing strains quickly enough, it should suppress transmission, reduce cases and therefore the pool of potential mutation incubators. Even if some of those strains show some vaccine evasion.
Our vaccines currently require two doses, at a spacing greater than the incubation period of the virus, to be sufficiently effective to suppress transmission enough, that if the proportion of partially protected people is allowed to straggle out, alongside an unprotected population the risk of mutation remains higher, longer and the partially protected population (and their (likely) consequently reduced respect for transmission risk), provide a neat little petri dish for developing a pool of more evasive strains, because those are the ones that produce the symptoms in the partially protected, that increase spread so nicely.
There was something about this already being an issue with a disease that had so many asymptomatic and mildly affected carriers anyway (like the Flu), whereas things like Ebola, tend to kill people too quickly and uniformly, for this to be an issue (although, that might change now we have treatments and vaccines for Ebola).
I believe something similar happens/is more likely to happen with antibody treatments too and those have been way more prevalent in the First World too.
But, I’d love to know this is all wrong, especially given the slow pace of some Western nations vaccine programs.
Vaccine evasive variants are more likely to occur where vaccines induce suitable evolutionary pressure, so, um, here (the West/N hemisphere).The key point is that the vaccine is not inducing the variants, it's all just chance. The same mutation is just as likely to occur in an individual transmission in an unvaccinated population as it is in a vaccinated population. The difference is that less transmission is happening in the vaccinated population, so less mutations at an overall level. So vaccine evasive variants are more likely to occur where there is more transmission, so, um, not in the West/N hemisphere.
Vaccine escape is just a mutation that means the immune system doesn't recognise the virus any more. Those mutations occur randomly the whole time. When noone is vaccinated, a vaccine escape mutation confers no benefit. When everyone is vaccinated, there's hopefully not enough of a pool of cases to support lots of mutation. Somewhere in the middle there's a "sweet spot" where there's a sufficient cases to give rise to mutations and a competitive advantage to being able to access the vaccinated hosts as well.
I don't think it matters if the vaccine escape mutation confers no benefit, does it? It's still going to spread in the unvaccinated population, whether it's evading the vaccine or not. I'm just not convinced that this sweet spot exists for variant mutation that is worse than being in an unvaccinated population. This might not be what you're suggesting, but that's how it reads to me.
The underlying problem is that while the vaccine provides a high level of protection against the Delta variant, and while younger people are less at risk from Covid-19, we still don't know if, with our present level of vaccination, NHS capacity would withstand an uncontrolled outbreak. So it is touch-and-go whether England will be able to unlock on 21 June.
. I agree it hasn't helped not having an effective quarantine system, but the variant would have got in anyway as we have gone over in this thread before.
I acknowledge it's far more difficult to do containment here as we're more densely populated, more airports etc etc
Why have isolation at all? I can’t see any functional difference between isolating and quarantine apart from the passport. It seems if one serves a useful purpose, then so must the other.
I acknowledge it's far more difficult to do containment here as we're more densely populated, more airports etc etc
I would say practically impossible given our reliance on imports for essentially everything. Australia also followed the hugely morally suspect policy of banning their own citizens from returning from India which I'd have been very uncomfortable with the UK doing. I accept it would have slowed it, but there would have been a significant cost.
I don't understand this. The vaccine provides a high level of protection, and we have lots and lots of people vaccinated, so how would an outbreak be uncontrolled?
Personally I'm satisfied with what the government have done thus far with regards full re-opening. They've set a provisional date of 21st June, made it clear from the outset that that date might be pushed back, they started to sound-off about it being delayed at least a fortnight ago pending more info, it's now as good as certain with final confirmation coming on the 14th.
made it clear from the outset that that date might be pushed back
It's dumb to 'shake the dice' when a few more weeks make the vaccination situation so much better and the information on hospitalisation levels a lot clearer. Lets see.... at least Boris won't be needlessly killing tems of thousands this time by making the wrong decision again, like he did in September and December last year.
made it clear from the outset that that date might be pushed back
Not to a lot of the great British public, they haven't.
Am I right in thinking that 'just a couple of weeks' mightn't be the case? Previously vaccinations were accelerated due to other vaccinations becoming available, but with Pfizer being the choice below a certain age then the no. of vaccinations per day is more limited by supply? That's not me advocating against delays btw.
Is that true? I don't remember the government ever briefing that the 21st June would definitely be honoured.
Exactly. The number of import events has a huge impact on rate of spread of a new variant and the severity of the outbreak. Limit it to a handful of import cases, and it is possible to prevent/minimise community transmission for some time and keep the rate of growth much lower.. I agree it hasn't helped not having an effective quarantine system, but the variant would have got in anyway as we have gone over in this thread before.It might have got in but the crucial thing about having a working quarantine system is that you can delay and slow its spread. It effectively gives you more time to decide whether you want to try to contain it or to just slow it down as much as possible.
Exactly. The number of import events has a huge impact on rate of spread of a new variant and the severity of the outbreak. Limit it to a handful of import cases, and it is possible to prevent/minimise community transmission for some time and keep the rate of growth much lower.
The 3+ week delay would have made the spread of Delta in the UK much more manageable. Every day that you delay rapid growth reduces the rate of growth and the total number of cases because hundreds of thousands of people are getting vaccinated every day. This is the key factor that should have urged caution with the delta travel bans.
It's the same story we've seen countless times during the last 17 months: not taking the correct action when it needed to be taken and having to take more severe action because of the delay. Without the delay in introducing travel bans over delta, we almost certainly would not be discussing delaying the 21 June easing. I would like to think that lessons had been learned for the emergence of the next worrying looking variant but I expect the same mistake will be made yet again.
All true, but it only holds if you believe that preventing it being imported was a reasonable policy decision to make at the time with the facts at the time. A huge number of British citizens are dual Indian citizens. If we had adopted a very strict border policy (like Australia) we would have been effectively locking our own citizens out and preventing them returning somewhere they had a right to be.
But you wouldn't have needed the (completely horrifying) Australian policy to delay Delta's arrival. If India had been red-listed at the same time as Pakistan and Bangladesh (when, IIRC, its positivity rates were higher -- we didn't know about Delta specifically but we could see the numbers), that could have bought us crucial time:
https://twitter.com/DevanSinha/status/1399667142321135622 (Sinha's generally pretty sensible so I'd have some trust in his assessment)
The only reason it wasn't red-listed then is because Johnson wanted to go visit Modi and get a trade deal.
I agree with you that trying to hermetically-seal the borders and hope nothing gets in ever isn't viable (or a long-term solution). But we could be in a better position than we currently are if we'd bothered to make our current system work the way it was supposed to.
(Obviously there's a whole issue about the costs of hotel quarantine for people who may not be able to afford it, and how to make that fair, but that's a separate issue.)
Exactly. The number of import events has a huge impact on rate of spread of a new variant and the severity of the outbreak. Limit it to a handful of import cases, and it is possible to prevent/minimise community transmission for some time and keep the rate of growth much lower.
The 3+ week delay would have made the spread of Delta in the UK much more manageable. Every day that you delay rapid growth reduces the rate of growth and the total number of cases because hundreds of thousands of people are getting vaccinated every day. This is the key factor that should have urged caution with the delta travel bans.
It's the same story we've seen countless times during the last 17 months: not taking the correct action when it needed to be taken and having to take more severe action because of the delay. Without the delay in introducing travel bans over delta, we almost certainly would not be discussing delaying the 21 June easing. I would like to think that lessons had been learned for the emergence of the next worrying looking variant but I expect the same mistake will be made yet again.
All true, but it only holds if you believe that preventing it being imported was a reasonable policy decision to make at the time with the facts at the time. A huge number of British citizens are dual Indian citizens. If we had adopted a very strict border policy (like Australia) we would have been effectively locking our own citizens out and preventing them returning somewhere they had a right to be. I don't think that would have been well received by people like me, elements of the media or indeed the people involved!
I say this not to excuse the government but just to play devils advocate; I don't think its as clear cut in practice as it is in theory.
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1402634844421623809
Not sure if the rules in Wales are different to England
Times is suggesting a 4 week delay, which would at least be better than saying two weeks and it ending up being extended.
I think that's probably the right course of action but suspect that they will be more or less compelled to open up after that
All true, but it only holds if you believe that preventing it being imported was a reasonable policy decision to make at the time with the facts at the time. A huge number of British citizens are dual Indian citizens. If we had adopted a very strict border policy (like Australia) we would have been effectively locking our own citizens out and preventing them returning somewhere they had a right to be. I don't think that would have been well received by people like me, elements of the media or indeed the people involved!
There are more UK residents/citizens who identify as Asian with a Pakistani or Bangledshi origin combined than Indian origin, both of whom were on the red list despite a lower % of positive cases tested on arrival and no-one shed a tear for them at the time and are ignored in the discussion now.
There are more UK residents/citizens who identify as Asian with a Pakistani or Bangledshi origin combined than Indian origin, both of whom were on the red list despite a lower % of positive cases tested on arrival and no-one shed a tear for them at the time and are ignored in the discussion now.
Good point. Like I say, I agree with a lot of what has been posted above by sdm, yourself and others, but I also think it was a pretty complicated situation and easy one liners like 'just shut the borders' are overly simplistic (I know you aren't doing this). Also I don't think you can take the geopolitics out of it; I detest both the Johnson and Modi governments, along with the fact that we need to be scratching around for trade deals at all, but given the scenario we are in I can see why the government might have thought 'shit, we could really do with gladhanding Modi so hold off for a few weeks to see how bad it gets.' Put it this way, its entirely plausible to me that a Labour government might have made the same call had they been in power, so I think it weakens the argument to lump that decision in with all the other numerous examples of this governments late action and incompetence.
Had my first vaccine yesterday, I'm 45 and received the AZ (missed my original appointment from over a month ago). The vaccine card has the date for the second jab booked in for 5th August, so 8 weeks after. Not sure if the rules in Wales are different to England or if they've made it 8 weeks for everyone currently getting jabbed.
So Tim Spector reckons symptoms from Delta variant are headache, sore throat, runny nose and then fever. Not cough. So all those young people filling the pubs who think they’ve got a headache/summer cold aren’t going to bother getting a test as there’s nothing from the gov, nor media about this.
FFS.
I get very uneasy about the calls to 'shut the borders' from liberal/left leaning people or media, or from the Labour Party as it runs completely counter to my world view. It plays completely into the hands of the nativist and isolationist right wing who think we can wall ourselves off and be safe from all the worlds ills, which coincidentally (for them) all seem to materialise in non-white majority countriesI agreement with your sentiment there, but in a pandemic, some control measures are needed for public health. We can debate what they may be (quite stringent for UK citizens) but shutting borders and insisting on quarantine are not the same thing at all. What’s particularly egregious here is the delay in applying the measures to India which were applied to its neighbours Pakistan and Bangladesh.
So Tim Spector reckons symptoms from Delta variant are headache, sore throat, runny nose and then fever. Not cough. So all those young people filling the pubs who think they’ve got a headache/summer cold aren’t going to bother getting a test as there’s nothing from the gov, nor media about this.
FFS.
I'd still expect people to want to confirm that from other sources before they launch a government publicity campaign to notify everyone about changed symptoms.
I get very uneasy about the calls to 'shut the borders' from liberal/left leaning people or media, or from the Labour Party as it runs completely counter to my world view. It plays completely into the hands of the nativist and isolationist right wing who think we can wall ourselves off and be safe from all the worlds ills, which coincidentally (for them) all seem to materialise in non-white majority countries :-\ I know nobody on here is saying that (obviously!) but |I think its worth considering whether its a wise position to take, no matter how nuanced we think it is.
I'm more pissed off at the government cutting the aid budget, both for the moral reasons (we are rich) and the self-interested one (we benefit from poor countries being healthier). I can foresee a situation in a year or two where we will still find it hard to visit relatives but most Brits can enjoy travel in Europe/the US/Australia, completely unaffected by travel restrictions.
I'm more pissed off at the government cutting the aid budget, both for the moral reasons (we are rich) and the self-interested one (we benefit from poor countries being healthier). I can foresee a situation in a year or two where we will still find it hard to visit relatives but most Brits can enjoy travel in Europe/the US/Australia, completely unaffected by travel restrictions.
It's the stupidest foreign policy decision outside of leaving the EU that they've made, it's even stupider given that we've left.
Both for the reasons you cite and that it's a great way to increase migration, people trafficking etc
Ultimately it probably cost less than Dido Harding and her useless track and trace.
Opening on June 21st was uncertain from the day they announced the staged process months ago. No prudent business owner would ever bank on that date as 100% certain.
I don't doubt any of that. But it doesn't lead on that your point about border policy is the reason for their struggle and possible failure. There's no way you can isolate that one factor among a myriad of interconnectedness to do with a pandemic and trying to come out the other side of it, and single it out as the reason for any business to fail. Opening on June 21st was uncertain from the day they announced the staged process months ago. No prudent business owner would ever bank on that date as 100% certain.
Opening on June 21st was uncertain from the day they announced the staged process months ago. No prudent business owner would ever bank on that date as 100% certain.
I’m sorry, but this is pompous nonsense. And an irrelevant aunt sally which ignores the pressures of trying to stay afloat after 16 months of pandemic.
My point, which you are free to -and clearly do- object to, is that the failure to exercise basic control over borders despite evidence of the potential dangers of the delta variant has seeded and accelerated a new wave. The policy cannot have been truly evidence based when Pakistan and Bangladesh were on the red list but not India. Whilst Johnson was hoping to meet Modi, it’s obvious why.
The variant would arrive at some point, but the rapid loss of control causes chaos. And businesses, as you know, need to plan.
The government owes the country a duty of competence. Instead, it’s cavalier.
I think perhaps that you are both right to some extent. A tighter control of borders would have helped prevent or slow new strains entering the country, that is fairly indisputable.
Regarding reopening dates, yes business owners should be aware that these dates were just putative. That doesn't alter the fact that for hospitality businesses, hiring staff in order to be ready in time is non-trivial at the minute, plus if you want to serve your customers with beer etc, that has a lead time too. Many were put in an unenviable position - hold off until certain and risk not being able to open giving competitors a head start, or take a bit of a punt. The point is, many saw the later as the best option out of desperation as they will go under otherwise.
Likewise, but we can agree to differ.
MrsTT has just had a ping from the app. 2 days to isolate. Says exposure date 4th Jun but taken 8 days to get to now? Not sure I understand that. Guess the ‘contact’ has only just been diagnosed??
Also one of her friends (56) is pretty ill with CV at the moment. One AZ dose 11 weeks ago - was due their second this week.
MrsTT has just had a ping from the app. 2 days to isolate. Says exposure date 4th Jun but taken 8 days to get to now? Not sure I understand that. Guess the ‘contact’ has only just been diagnosed??
Also one of her friends (56) is pretty ill with CV at the moment. One AZ dose 11 weeks ago - was due their second this week.
MrsTT has just had a ping from the app. 2 days to isolate. Says exposure date 4th Jun but taken 8 days to get to now? Not sure I understand that. Guess the ‘contact’ has only just been diagnosed??
Also one of her friends (56) is pretty ill with CV at the moment. One AZ dose 11 weeks ago - was due their second this week.
I’,m slightly confused by the vaccine stories I’m hearing.
I’m 50 and I had my second shot (AV) three weeks ago. It had been booked for Aug 6, but I got a text on May 17 with a rescheduled appointment for May 22. I didn’t have to do anything or request it.
It seems strange that so many people in the bracket above me, still seemto be waiting for shot 2.
MrsTT has just had a ping from the app. 2 days to isolate. Says exposure date 4th Jun but taken 8 days to get to now? Not sure I understand that. Guess the ‘contact’ has only just been diagnosed??
Also one of her friends (56) is pretty ill with CV at the moment. One AZ dose 11 weeks ago - was due their second this week.
I’,m slightly confused by the vaccine stories I’m hearing.
I’m 50 and I had my second shot (AV) three weeks ago. It had been booked for Aug 6, but I got a text on May 17 with a rescheduled appointment for May 22. I didn’t have to do anything or request it.
It seems strange that so many people in the bracket above me, still seemto be waiting for shot 2.
It depends on the area how quickly you'll get done.
But to ignore any other factor that could possibly contribute to the three output numbers (cases, hospitalisations, deaths) and focus attention on one factor - perceived failure of border policy - is pushing a political agenda, not looking for truth.
...why I think the reluctance to red list India in line with Bangladesh and Pakistan was a very poor decision and, though not wholly responsible, is a significant contributing factor to why we are looking at a third wave now.
Is the reason why delta has become prevalent here because we have a relatively large Indian population who were likely to be traveling there to see families etc?
MrsTT has just had a ping from the app. 2 days to isolate. Says exposure date 4th Jun but taken 8 days to get to now? Not sure I understand that. Guess the ‘contact’ has only just been diagnosed??
Also one of her friends (56) is pretty ill with CV at the moment. One AZ dose 11 weeks ago - was due their second this week.
I’,m slightly confused by the vaccine stories I’m hearing.
I’m 50 and I had my second shot (AV) three weeks ago. It had been booked for Aug 6, but I got a text on May 17 with a rescheduled appointment for May 22. I didn’t have to do anything or request it.
It seems strange that so many people in the bracket above me, still seemto be waiting for shot 2.
It depends on the area how quickly you'll get done.
It does seem relatively random or variable. My son (27, Widnes) has had both.
On Monday, Public Health England also released encouraging data suggesting Covid jabs appeared to offer substantial protection against hospitalisation from the Delta variant. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is 94% effective against hospital admission after one dose, rising to 96% after two doses. The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is 71% effective against hospital admission after one dose, rising to 92% after two.
MrsTt’s WhatsApp is busy tonight. New cases in her work and mum friends. It’s not felt this covid ‘busy’ since April last year tbh. Bloody hope that link between catching it and hospitalisation is severed or close to - else it feels like it’s going to be a right mess: part 3.
Hard to conclude anything else from the PHE data on the vaccines yesterday surely?
had my first jab yesterday!
Various US epidemiologists seem to be bracing for impact and watching the UK, because Delta's now accelerating over there too (and their overall vaccination percentage is not too dissimilar from the UK):
I think the US is at about 52% with at least one dose, definitely behind the UK.
Some states are at about 30% somewhat vaccinated and it's even lower at the level of individual counties in some places. It could be horrible if the Delta variant gets into those communities.
Also they're "shortly" going to have the booking system fixed so people can see availability before cancelling their original appointment.
When I was working in the NHS, it used to really piss me off when colleagues would refuse the seasonal flu vaccine, despite the fact that we were working with people aged 70-100+ everyday.At the trusts around here, staff are free to refuse the flu vaccine. But if they refuse the flu vaccine and subsequently take time off work with flu symptoms, they face disciplinary action.
Also, isn't it worth waiting the few extra weeks during the lower risk summer period and getting better overall protection for the winter waves?
Also, isn't it worth waiting the few extra weeks during the lower risk summer period and getting better overall protection for the winter waves?
As far as I know, Pfizer's pretty bombproof at any interval -- 8 weeks seems to be the minimum interval the current system allows with any vaccine, but Pfizer's handed out at a 4-week interval (the one originally studied) in plenty of places round the world. There was one study showing that a 12-week interval can improve antibodies in a group of older people, but it's gilding the lily; really doesn't need it.
It's AZ where stretching out the interval can really make a difference to the final level of protection. Though in the current situation, getting double-dosed sooner (so you have excellent protection against hospitalization) probably trumps trying to maximize absolute protection.
BBC News - Covid vaccine to be required for England care home staff
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57492264
On the face of it this seems like a good idea, although I'm open to being told of unintended consequences or downsides. When I was working in the NHS, it used to really piss me off when colleagues would refuse the seasonal flu vaccine, despite the fact that we were working with people aged 70-100+ everyday.
Just checked the figures and I'd forgotten that, while 1 dose is still very good for preventing hospitalisation, it will only be about 36% effective at preventing symptomatic disease
Still a number to make an XCOM player sweat, but massively better than the 1 dose figure.
Also, isn't it worth waiting the few extra weeks during the lower risk summer period and getting better overall protection for the winter waves?
As far as I know, Pfizer's pretty bombproof at any interval -- 8 weeks seems to be the minimum interval the current system allows with any vaccine, but Pfizer's handed out at a 4-week interval (the one originally studied) in plenty of places round the world.
Aha:
https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2021/06/C1324-Letter-to-vaccination-sites-15-June-2021.pdf
From the 21st, they're going to be inviting people in their 40s who've got their 2nd appointment more than 9 weeks from the first dose to rebook.
Also they're "shortly" going to have the booking system fixed so people can see availability before cancelling their original appointment.
Also they're "shortly" going to have the booking system fixed so people can see availability before cancelling their original appointment.
I rebooked mine last night using the cancel/rebook system and whilst it briefly felt risky and 'wrong', I had the new appointment booked within about 35 seconds. If anyone else is putting this off I would suggest just crack on.
Is the reason why delta has become prevalent here because we have a relatively large Indian population who were likely to be traveling there to see families etc? It doesn't mean the government is blameless, but perhaps even if Germany had the same border policy it wouldn't be as bad there anyway?
. Surely the system can’t be so regionally specific?
MrsTT’s friend and colleague has tested positive. As have her 18 and 21 yo kids who love with her.
She is double Pfizer dosed (March). Presently with a very bad head cold. Her husband also double dosed is negative.
Delta growth is now exponential - and we have minimal distancing measures in place - so it’s going to ‘rip’ to some degree. As an aside Delta is clearly highly effective - the rate at which it’s displaced Alpha is quite something, twice as fast as how Alpha replaced the original dominant version.
It strikes me there’s quite a gamble from the government here - that we have broken the link between cases and hospitalisation. If vaccination doesn’t - and hospitalisation rates amongst the younger were much higher in India - then we’re in quite a spot of bother (for the third or fourth time…).
MrsTT’s friend and colleague has tested positive. As have her 18 and 21 yo kids who love with her.
She is double Pfizer dosed (March). Presently with a very bad head cold.
MrsTT’s friend and colleague has tested positive. As have her 18 and 21 yo kids who love with her.
She is double Pfizer dosed (March). Presently with a very bad head cold.
Fingers crossed that's as bad as it gets for her -- the vaccination should still be reducing the severity of disease and vastly cutting her odds of hospitalization.
What do you mean by 'broken?' In this context 'severely weakened' and 'broken' in practice mean the same thing, as there will always be some level of hospitalisations proportionate to cases; just a lower proportion once everyone is jabbed. My point being that there will always be a link, just at a lower level. I've yet to see any data or article which suggests that this link has not been severely weakened, so I don't see it as a gamble. Am I missing something?
Clutched my pearls! Implying you’re trolling!
I don’t know how more politely I could have warned you how your post came across. This time I’ll be blunt - your last one comes across as bullying to me - which I think isn’t on.
I’ll leave now. Which is probably what you’d like - so well done. Have a great day.
I always think your contribution to the forum is intelligent and worth reading to be honest.
Clutched my pearls! Implying you’re trolling!
I don’t know how more politely I could have warned you how your post came across. This time I’ll be blunt - your last one comes across as bullying to me - which I think isn’t on.
I’ll leave now. Which is probably what you’d like - so well done. Have a great day.
Clearly I need to start all my posts with "no offence but, " :D
I didn’t have to cancel to rebook my appointment.
I just went in (followed the link in the text) and made the new appointment and the old one was automatically cancelled. Surely the system can’t be so regionally specific?
As of last night, it should be fixed so you can see availability before having to cancel:
https://twitter.com/fordie/status/1405281727761711109
I’m quite impressed the booking/rebooking system is working as well as it is (seems to generally be doing the right thing non?) especially considering it’s got 55 million people on the books, a whole manner of different ways of getting the jab (mobile, pop up, gp, health trusts etc etc). Haven’t heard of many/any double bookings, ghost appointments etc…My friends and family have had very mixed experiences with it. People's experiences seem to be a postcode and age group lottery.
I rebooked for my 2nd easily and moved it forwards a week but I when I tried to do the same for my partner there were much less options despite doing it straight away. Maybe because she is Moderna but I was AZ?
Had my second Pfizer yesterday and it totally wiped me out overnight. Really sore arm and fever.
Does anyone know the deal with symptoms now? Seems like these are very common for the second jab and also now much lower down on the likely Covid symptoms list.
I’d have got a test if I felt like this last year but now it’s almost certainly the jab I think. Feeling a bit rough this morning still but think a lot of it is due to lack of sleep…
I think it's quite common to feel worse after the second Pfizer than the first.
Still no queue
First jab or second if first was over 21 days ago
Open until 2pm
Daughters class bubble has gone down. Bugger. Feels like it's all starting again!
Daughters class bubble has gone down. Bugger. Feels like it's all starting again!
Daughters class bubble has gone down. Bugger. Feels like it's all starting again!
My son also stuck at home for ten days as of last Friday for the same reason.
Seems like the next couple of weeks are going to be key in how it plays out if the cases keep going up the way they re (up what 50% in a week?).
Very nice:
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/find-a-walk-in-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-site/
"If you live in England and are aged 18 or over, you can get a COVID-19 vaccine from a walk-in COVID-19 vaccination site without an appointment.
You do not need to be registered with a GP or bring any ID. It might help to bring your NHS number, if you know it.
If you've already had your 1st dose, you need to wait 8 weeks before having your 2nd dose."
Spike's back at school tomorrow, but I do wonder how long it'll be before he's back home again.Daughters class bubble has gone down. Bugger. Feels like it's all starting again!
My son also stuck at home for ten days as of last Friday for the same reason.
I've been thinking about this a bit over the last week. I don't have any kids/ know any school age kids so it all feels a bit distant to me.
Seems to me we have a choice of
a) continue as we are, which as Bonjoy alludes to will inevitable result in loads of cases among kids
b) vaccinate all kids to try and reduce cases. Interested in what parents on here think about that as the ethics of it are quite interesting; eg vaccinating those not at risk to try and prevent them spreading it to those who are. Side effects are worth the risk in adults, but its a trickier calculation for kids, especially younger ones. What do those with kids think?
c) continue with a, but in the new school year change the rules around bubbles to stop the relentless cycle of isolating.
I think I'd be in favour of c; totally agree the status quo of massive groups of kids having their education interrupted every other week is no good. Think b is an ethical minefield and might have limited effectiveness due to parents being worried. All guesswork though as I haven't read a huge amount on it.
If we’re removing remaining restrictions pretty soon, it feels quite a lot like part of the discussion in point b is whether you’d prefer your child to have its antibody delivered “in the wild” or via a needle?
More widely, I am interested to see what happens to the self isolation rules. Certainly from my perspective (2 nursery age children, otherwise comfortably able to work from home, not the biggest socialite due to said children and their demanding nature, 1 jab so far) the most visible impact Covid has on my life is probably the potential impact combining self isolating with 2 children and trying to work would have. I’m probably not the only one who’s going to put off some elements of a return to 2019-normality until the threat of that is removed.
And it’s not hard to see engagement with test and trace dropping away as the wider message shifts to saying that cases aren’t important enough to retain any other restrictions against their growth. I guess effectively at the moment we think we’ve got enough jabs in arms to “let it rip” on everyone else - at which point what purpose is self isolation serving?
Yeah, I agree with all of that. For clarity, I am not Andrew Wakefield in disguise re vaccinating kids! I think there is a very strong case for vaccinating teenagers quite soon in particular.
Can also see how the engagement with TTI might drop once everyone has had their two jabs. Should probably switch to a daily test which, if negative, means you can go around as normal. Can't see it being as widely adhered to if people are asymptomatic, passing negative tests, double jabbed... Yet also have to spend 10 days inside.
I've been thinking about this a bit over the last week. I don't have any kids/ know any school age kids so it all feels a bit distant to me.I agree that looks like the options.
Seems to me we have a choice of
a) continue as we are, which as Bonjoy alludes to will inevitable result in loads of cases among kids
b) vaccinate all kids to try and reduce cases. Interested in what parents on here think about that as the ethics of it are quite interesting; eg vaccinating those not at risk to try and prevent them spreading it to those who are. Side effects are worth the risk in adults, but its a trickier calculation for kids, especially younger ones. What do those with kids think?
c) continue with a, but in the new school year change the rules around bubbles to stop the relentless cycle of isolating.
I think I'd be in favour of c; totally agree the status quo of massive groups of kids having their education interrupted every other week is no good. Think b is an ethical minefield and might have limited effectiveness due to parents being worried. All guesswork though as I haven't read a huge amount on it.
I've been thinking about this a bit over the last week. I don't have any kids/ know any school age kids so it all feels a bit distant to me.
Seems to me we have a choice of
a) continue as we are, which as Bonjoy alludes to will inevitable result in loads of cases among kids
b) vaccinate all kids to try and reduce cases. Interested in what parents on here think about that as the ethics of it are quite interesting; eg vaccinating those not at risk to try and prevent them spreading it to those who are. Side effects are worth the risk in adults, but its a trickier calculation for kids, especially younger ones. What do those with kids think?
c) continue with a, but in the new school year change the rules around bubbles to stop the relentless cycle of isolating.
I think I'd be in favour of c; totally agree the status quo of massive groups of kids having their education interrupted every other week is no good. Think b is an ethical minefield and might have limited effectiveness due to parents being worried. All guesswork though as I haven't read a huge amount on it.
If we continue to open things up, which I think is guaranteed (barring a new disastrous variant), then it is safe to assume that approximately 100% of unvaccinated people will get covid.Yeah, I agree with all of that. For clarity, I am not Andrew Wakefield in disguise re vaccinating kids! I think there is a very strong case for vaccinating teenagers quite soon in particular.
Can also see how the engagement with TTI might drop once everyone has had their two jabs. Should probably switch to a daily test which, if negative, means you can go around as normal. Can't see it being as widely adhered to if people are asymptomatic, passing negative tests, double jabbed... Yet also have to spend 10 days inside.
It’s strange, because if I frame the question as “do I want them to be vaccinated” then the answer is probably not, since it offers them little benefit, but if I reframe it as “would I prefer they get a potentially unknown viral load infection from nursery, versus a measured and more controlled equivalent” then it’s far less clear cut. I guess it’s the same as the AZ vaccine risk trade off, in that the answer may depend on whether you view them getting it as an inevitability or not.
Personally, I’d pin all four of mine down and jab them myself.
They’re nasty little plague rats, as it is.
c) personally, I'm not happy about kids getting vaccinated at this stage of their development (9 & 11 1/2).
c) personally, I'm not happy about kids getting vaccinated at this stage of their development (9 & 11 1/2).
What's concerning you?
(Aside from the fact that they're under the approved age anyway -- I think 12 is the youngest the mRNA vaccines have been approved for anywhere at the moment, but there are now trials going on with younger age groups.)
Do people actually volunteer their children to trials?
Lack of trials mostly and unknown long term effects.
Guess I'm more paranoid about my children's health than most. Prerogative of being an older parent.
When a vaccine for my daughter becomes available she is getting it (11, soon to be 12). I want to protect her from possible consequences of Covid. Risks from an approved vaccine I would regard as negligible. Risks from a virus with a range of possible nasty outcomes I would place much higher.Completely agree. The best estimate we have for the long term effects of covid is probably the data on long term effects of SARS. Which are awful.
We don't know yet whether long covid will be better or worse than SARS, I suspect it won't be as severe, but all of the above leads me to be very cautious when it comes to long covid and I think this caution ought to extend to our children.
We don't know yet whether long covid will be better or worse than SARS, I suspect it won't be as severe, but all of the above leads me to be very cautious when it comes to long covid and I think this caution ought to extend to our children.
Interesting post. I guess the key point is what being very cautious about LC means in practice, both for kids and adults. My personal instinct is that the public would take some serious convincing that the risk of LC is bad/common enough to justify many restrictions beyond, say, masks in shopping centres or similar. That said I don't know any LC sufferers so perhaps ignorance is bliss. Other than jabbing everyone, I don't think there is a lot you can do to prevent LC beyond investing in research and treatments, without suppressing baseline cases, which would require quite strong restrictions. :shrug:
If we end bubbles as touted, I expect most schoolchildren will get Covid. I can’t see on site LFT testing preventing its spread.
To be slightly pedantic, that's not true. At some % below 100, herd immunity will prevent total saturation being reached.
If we continue to open things up, which I think is guaranteed (barring a new disastrous variant), then it is safe to assume that approximately 100% of unvaccinated people will get covid.
If we end bubbles as touted, I expect most schoolchildren will get Covid. I can’t see on site LFT testing preventing its spread.
Yes, the decision would seem to prioritise continuity of education over the kids getting covid. To me this makes sense, but again I have no skin in the game so I'm sure a good chunk of parents/teachers think otherwise.
A proportion of those infections will have life changing consequences so it's a serious thing. The current loss of education is untenable but I suspect some who are saying that we just have to take the consequences of letting it spread might be less keen if they thought it was their child who will have to take one for the team..
If we end bubbles as touted, I expect most schoolchildren will get Covid. I can’t see on site LFT testing preventing its spread.
Yes, the decision would seem to prioritise continuity of education over the kids getting covid. To me this makes sense, but again I have no skin in the game so I'm sure a good chunk of parents/teachers think otherwise.
A proportion of those infections will have life changing consequences so it's a serious thing. The current loss of education is untenable but I suspect some who are saying that we just have to take the consequences of letting it spread might be less keen if they thought it was their child who will have to take one for the team..
To be slightly pedantic, that's not true. At some % below 100, herd immunity will prevent total saturation being reached.
If we continue to open things up, which I think is guaranteed (barring a new disastrous variant), then it is safe to assume that approximately 100% of unvaccinated people will get covid.
I don't know what the current estimate is, but at the start of the pandemic 60%-80% was mentioned. Obviously various factors (new variants, vaccination level in adult population, partial immunity via old variants, etc) will push that figure up or down somewhat.
If we're talking infection over a lifetime for an endemic virus, then maybe yes 100% or close to is to be expected. I think consideration of a shorter time frame, perhaps one or two years, is more practical for thinking about current actions.
Over the course of a lifetime/childhood, I think ~100% is accurate for where we are headed.
other than vaxxing kids which brings its own set of proportional serious side effects (I think a smaller proportion but am not sure).
other than vaxxing kids which brings its own set of proportional serious side effects (I think a smaller proportion but am not sure).
Oh god yeah, far far far smaller. A vaccine's not going to get licensed unless they know it's very safe; a vaccine for kids even more so, especially given that in this case the risk to kids of severe illness if they get Covid is very low (compared to the risk for adults). So the sort of risk-benefit trade-offs that make AZ worthwhile for older adults don't factor in.
Doesn't mean there's no possibility of serious side effects -- for example, looks like teens and young adults have a very small risk of myocarditis from the mRNA vaccines. But the current picture is that it's extremely rare, almost always mild (treatable with NSAIDs, gets better on its own), and the risk of myocarditis from getting Covid-19 itself is much higher:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/06/26/fda-rare-heart-inflammation-warning-for-pfizer-moderna-covid-19-coronavirus-vaccines/
which I guess begs the question that if the risk/reward calculation is so obviously in favour of vaxxing children, why are the JCVI seemingly reluctant to recommend doing so? What am I missing?
other than vaxxing kids which brings its own set of proportional serious side effects (I think a smaller proportion but am not sure).
Oh god yeah, far far far smaller. A vaccine's not going to get licensed unless they know it's very safe; a vaccine for kids even more so, especially given that in this case the risk to kids of severe illness if they get Covid is very low (compared to the risk for adults). So the sort of risk-benefit trade-offs that make AZ worthwhile for older adults don't factor in.
Doesn't mean there's no possibility of serious side effects -- for example, looks like teens and young adults have a very small risk of myocarditis from the mRNA vaccines. But the current picture is that it's extremely rare, almost always mild (treatable with NSAIDs, gets better on its own), and the risk of myocarditis from getting Covid-19 itself is much higher:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/06/26/fda-rare-heart-inflammation-warning-for-pfizer-moderna-covid-19-coronavirus-vaccines/
Thanks ; which I guess begs the question that if the risk/reward calculation is so obviously in favour of vaxxing children, why are the JCVI seemingly reluctant to recommend doing so? What am I missing?
Given the low risk of Covid for most teenagers, it is not immoral to think that they may be better protected by natural immunity generated through infection than by asking them to take the *possible* risk of a vaccine.
Given the low risk of Covid for most teenagers, it is not immoral to think that they may be better protected by natural immunity generated through infection than by asking them to take the *possible* risk of a vaccine.
Interesting; I had clocked he wasn't an epidemiologist but I am also wary of exclusively listening to narrow infectious disease experts on the issue; since I know nothing about it I have to presume he is on the JCVI for a reason and isn't a charlatan :shrug:
I think from your posts you are firmly in the 'jab the kids when the jabs are available' camp which I think is my instinct as well; I am just confused since a lot of people much cleverer than me seem to think it isn't that simple, which makes me think I am missing something. Good links, thanks!
I think from your posts you are firmly in the 'jab the kids when the jabs are available' camp
since I know nothing about it I have to presume he is on the JCVI for a reason and isn't a charlatan :shrug:
But the factual evidence about risks seems fairly clear.
This is exactly what is already done with the annual flu vaccine given to children.other than vaxxing kids which brings its own set of proportional serious side effects (I think a smaller proportion but am not sure).
Oh god yeah, far far far smaller. A vaccine's not going to get licensed unless they know it's very safe; a vaccine for kids even more so, especially given that in this case the risk to kids of severe illness if they get Covid is very low (compared to the risk for adults). So the sort of risk-benefit trade-offs that make AZ worthwhile for older adults don't factor in.
Doesn't mean there's no possibility of serious side effects -- for example, looks like teens and young adults have a very small risk of myocarditis from the mRNA vaccines. But the current picture is that it's extremely rare, almost always mild (treatable with NSAIDs, gets better on its own), and the risk of myocarditis from getting Covid-19 itself is much higher:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/06/26/fda-rare-heart-inflammation-warning-for-pfizer-moderna-covid-19-coronavirus-vaccines/
Thanks ; which I guess begs the question that if the risk/reward calculation is so obviously in favour of vaxxing children, why are the JCVI seemingly reluctant to recommend doing so? What am I missing?
As I understand it, vaccination for children may make sense for the population as a whole but they are at sufficiently low risk in themselves that the tiny risk of adverse effects from the vaccine may be more significant than the disease risk, or on a similar scale at any rate. Given this, its really not medically ethical to effectively give a group a medical treatment in order to benefit other groups.
As I understand it, vaccination for children may make sense for the population as a whole but they are at sufficiently low risk in themselves that the tiny risk of adverse effects from the vaccine may be more significant than the disease risk, or on a similar scale at any rate.
What I don't understand is how this can be clear, yet the JCVI haven't said to do it yet. Taking on board your points about whether the vaccines might be better being shipped off elsewhere.
mjr; mostly from idle and occasional reading of pieces like this: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-really-close-call-on-whether-to-vaccinate-children-sage-adviser-says-12337901. The prof quoted here doesn't seem to think the data on safety is robust enough, although I'm sure others think otherwise.
it is the reason that all the authorisations are still on an "emergency use" basis.Apologies, that's US terminology - I thought I should double check having posted; in the UK the situation is similar. Pfizer is still on its initial 'temporary authorisation.' AZ has progressed from that to its 'conditional marketing authorisation', which comes with a long list of conditions including committed plans to submit to MHRA reports from additional safety trials running out until the end of 2024.
Dr Viki Male (immunologist working on pregnancy at Imperial, quoted in the article) is also a badass and maintains a great explainer on what's currently known about Covid vaccines, pregnancy, fertility, and breastfeeding:
https://twitter.com/VikiLovesFACS/status/1367099701238116353
She's very good at answering questions on Twitter in a non-patronizing and non-combative way. Top science communication.
And that’s rural Devon.
Ladies and Gentlemen, hold on to your hats, this ride is leaving the station.
Keep them away from fruit juices
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9725379/Pupils-using-FRUIT-JUICE-false-positive-Covid-test-results.html
And that’s rural Devon.
Ladies and Gentlemen, hold on to your hats, this ride is leaving the station.
A quick look at the figures shows that cases have been steadily building since late May. There's a definite increase in pace at around the 20th June. Deaths have been fairly flat, even though we're nearly 2 weeks beyond when cases started to look exponential.
Is it not just going to be a wave of cases (which was always inevitable), mainly in the young, with a relatively small increase in deaths, predominantly among the unvaccinated and the very unlucky few whose vaccine doesn't protect them? Given that COVID is not going to go away isn't this completely inevitable?
And that’s rural Devon.
Ladies and Gentlemen, hold on to your hats, this ride is leaving the station.
A quick look at the figures shows that cases have been steadily building since late May. There's a definite increase in pace at around the 20th June. Deaths have been fairly flat, even though we're nearly 2 weeks beyond when cases started to look exponential.
Is it not just going to be a wave of cases (which was always inevitable), mainly in the young, with a relatively small increase in deaths, predominantly among the unvaccinated and the very unlucky few whose vaccine doesn't protect them? Given that COVID is not going to go away isn't this completely inevitable?
Yep; this to me is exactly why Whitty and Vallance are relaxed about opening things up on the 19th.
We have two in Cuthbert and that’s the one with yrs 7 and 8 shutdown. Our yr7 is home and back on Google classroom. Because my eldest has finished, we only have one at Spires and they have yr10 shut down and two other “close contact” bubbles out. Our son is yr7 there and has a few classmates out due to being siblings of isolating yr10s. TA have two bubbles out and according to the staff that bring the TGBS PE class twice a week, they’re (much smaller) yr9 bubbles are out.
We also have had four requests (at the Bunker) for extension to monthly passes, because the kids have to isolate. That two TGBS sixth formers and a sibling combo yr11+8 at Churston. We also know of several primary kids of friend who tested positive (lateral flow) last week.
I did this a couple of days ago, but there hasn’t been a significant change in slope in the meantime:
Now, that’s obviously a down and dirty, photoshop comparison of cases (red) to hospitalisations (blue) and I compressed the Y axis by ~ 10, simply by altering the frame ratio; so it ain’t brilliant. It was easier than check data day by day against the autumn wave though.
It seems pretty obvious that the hospitalisation curve bears little similarity to the autumn, relative to cases, whereas the case rate escalation seem very similar.
Where is this stuff about vaccine dangers coming from? Not seen any evidence for it, bar a tiny% of thromboses. :shrug:
I did this a couple of days ago, but there hasn’t been a significant change in slope in the meantime:
Now, that’s obviously a down and dirty, photoshop comparison of cases (red) to hospitalisations (blue) and I compressed the Y axis by ~ 10, simply by altering the frame ratio; so it ain’t brilliant. It was easier than check data day by day against the autumn wave though.
It seems pretty obvious that the hospitalisation curve bears little similarity to the autumn, relative to cases, whereas the case rate escalation seem very similar.
This seems to be where things are really different, as would be hoped if the vaccines work.
Interesting that this sort of comparison doesn't seem to readily available in the media so put the 7 day rolling data into a chart, multiplying admissions and deaths numbers to bring the the trends into scale.
(https://i.ibb.co/p673zRh/Covid-data-chart.jpg)
As per your image, shows really clearly how hospital admissions and deaths seem to have a very much lower correlation to cases when compared to autumn/winter.
Is it not just going to be a wave of cases (which was always inevitable), mainly in the young, with a relatively small increase in deaths, predominantly among the unvaccinated and the very unlucky few whose vaccine doesn't protect them?
Where is this stuff about vaccine dangers coming from? Not seen any evidence for it, bar a tiny% of thromboses. :shrug:
For anyone who fancies a blast from the past (or isn't old enough to remember it), see this excellent run-down of the Andrew Wakefield saga, because as I have mentioned elsewhere it's one of my life goals to ensure that everyone hates him as much as I do:
Wakefield's very much around and part of the current anti-vax movement, but more generally, I think it left a vague sense floating around that maybe there are insidious secret dangers with vaccines for kids.
N.B. I think it's perfectly reasonable to want maximum safety data before vaccinating healthy younger kids for something where their risk is very low. Rare side-effects like the myocarditis thing do show up, so we want to know what the risk picture is. Side-effects are a thing!
But there's a lot of anxiety around about how vaccines might cause some kind of harm to a child's "development" if given at the wrong time or in the wrong way, which I think may be more of a hangover from the Wakefield stuff than a reflection of the kind of side-effects we might actually run into.
Glad to help.
https://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-anti-vax-conspiracy
Calling something ‘money-making’ shouldn’t be pejorative.
Pete how about making money out of spreading disinformation about vaccines if you know it is going to lead to lots of people dying? Is that OK?
Very interested to hear what ukbers thing of this: https://www.bitchute.com/video/pJCvN4EveYt2/
Lots of these kind of messages popping up everywhere except mainstream media. I think we need to start thinking a little bit more critically about the whole Covid situation. We all know how corrupt most politicians are and how powerful big Pharma is. That in it's self is enough to question everything. Who owns big Pharma? What's the agenda of the WEF?
Very interested to hear what ukbers thing of this: https://www.bitchute.com/video/pJCvN4EveYt2/
Lots of these kind of messages popping up everywhere except mainstream media. I think we need to start thinking a little bit more critically about the whole Covid situation. We all know how corrupt most politicians are and how powerful big Pharma is. That in it's self is enough to question everything. Who owns big Pharma? What's the agenda of the WEF?
I suppose "large pharmaceutical companies" would be a workable definition, and many of them (like large companies across all other industries) have track records of dodgy behaviour of one kind or another.
"Big Pharma" is much better for making them sound like a single gigantic world-spanning conspiracy network, of course.
Not clear how they're going to be making money by ... killing off most of the world's population? I gather that's the latest theory? ... but I'm sure the anti-vaxxers can tell us.
Very interested to hear what ukbers thing of this: https://www.bitchute.com/video/pJCvN4EveYt2/If you are genuinely interested in what UKBers think, could you please post an article or two summarising the issues, for people who aren't able to watch a 35 minute video right now?? Ta.
I suppose "large pharmaceutical companies" would be a workable definition, and many of them (like large companies across all other industries) have track records of dodgy behaviour of one kind or another.
"Big Pharma" is much better for making them sound like a single gigantic world-spanning conspiracy network, of course.
Not clear how they're going to be making money by ... killing off most of the world's population? I gather that's the latest theory? ... but I'm sure the anti-vaxxers can tell us.
Because they have been secretly buying up all of the funeral services and graveyards, obviously
Very interested to hear what ukbers thing of this: [...] I think we need to start thinking a little bit more critically about the whole Covid situation.
Very interested to hear what ukbers thing of this: https://www.bitchute.com/video/pJCvN4EveYt2/If you are genuinely interested in what UKBers think, could you please post an article or two summarising the issues, for people who aren't able to watch a 35 minute video right now?? Ta.
Still, if EWS wants to engage about this, they deserve a fair chance.
government policy looks very much like it's going to be "abandon even trying to isolate contacts for kids and just let it rip through the schools".
I have a question (whilst I'm waiting for the follow-up from EWS)...
What proportion of Long Covid cases come from severe / hospitalisable cases of the initial covid, compared to LC cases that come from a mild / non-hospitalisable case of the initial covid??
(This is in the context of vaccines seeming to reduce the severity of the initial covid, but wondering how well that correlates to reducing the chances of Long Covid)
https://inews.co.uk/nhs/nhs-staff-claims-hospital-manage-covid-situation-cases-1091598
Walk in Pfizer vaccination clinic tomorrow Thursday 8 July at Victoria hall, Norfolk Street, Sheffield.
11am till 3pm.
Aimed at asylum seekers, homeless, rough sleepers.
No appointment needed and not necessary to be registered with a GP.
If you know anyone who might benefit, let them know.
Cheers
Long may hospitals continue to be overstretched? That's not desirable.https://inews.co.uk/nhs/nhs-staff-claims-hospital-manage-covid-situation-cases-1091598
Or in other words, we're approaching something close to normal life then.. i.e. hospitals overstretched with non-covid patients who've suffered the misfortunes of a life out of lockdown. Long may that continue.
It was said to mean that I'd far rather live in a country with a health service stretched by non-pandemic issues - because that would mean we're free of the worst effects of the pandemic and so freer to go about living our lives - than in a country with a health service stretched by serious covid cases
It was said to mean that I'd far rather live in a country with a health service stretched by non-pandemic issues - because that would mean we're free of the worst effects of the pandemic and so freer to go about living our lives - than in a country with a health service stretched by serious covid cases
Unfortunately, looks like we're going to get to have both at the same time:
https://twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/status/1413000336915243010
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/leeds-cancer-surgery-coronavirus-nhs-b1879646.html
The NHS won't collapse and it's unlikely that there'll have to be the covert triage that there was in the first wave, but it could still be pretty rough. "Normal" this ain't.
Suspect that contract has already been given to Hancock Harding ltd Purveyors of Antique Rocking Horses, or some fucking thing equally inappropriate.
Posted without comment:
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W23/752550337 (https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W23/752550337)
It was said to mean that I'd far rather live in a country with a health service stretched by non-pandemic issues - because that would mean we're free of the worst effects of the pandemic and so freer to go about living our lives - than in a country with a health service stretched by serious covid cases
Unfortunately, looks like we're going to get to have both at the same time:
https://twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/status/1413000336915243010
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/leeds-cancer-surgery-coronavirus-nhs-b1879646.html
The NHS won't collapse and it's unlikely that there'll have to be the covert triage that there was in the first wave, but it could still be pretty rough. "Normal" this ain't.
Pop-ups and walk-ins, with info on places that are quietly doing second doses of mRNA vaccines before the official 8-week limit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/GetJabbed/
Meaghan Kall (epidemiologist at PHE) explains why in her opinion it's fine to do this:
https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1409114703700402178
Is it appallingly cynical to suggest that the current situation with people being notified by the app may possibly not represent escalating infections as much as their desire to get out of going to work when the weather is this hot and sunny? I wonder if the situation will improve when it starts raining again?
Is it appallingly cynical to suggest that the current situation with people being notified by the app may possibly not represent escalating infections as much as their desire to get out of going to work when the weather is this hot and sunny?
Less "appallingly cynical", more "wildly optimistic", I think.
Less "appallingly cynical", more "wildly optimistic", I think.
Yes :agree: Infection rates are pretty bloody high. Plus, don’t you have to do more than just say “I’ve been pinged” to get out of work. I’d have thought there’d at least be an expectation to send a screenshot of the app to your employer?
Is it appallingly cynical to suggest that the current situation with people being notified by the app may possibly not represent escalating infections as much as their desire to get out of going to work when the weather is this hot and sunny? I wonder if the situation will improve when it starts raining again?
I wonder if the PM might be the most likely offender here? What a coincidence that hes at Chequers which has a swimming pool and not in Downing Street.I’m as cynical as they come, but I have no doubt he would’ve been ‘pinged’ if Javid tested positive. The question is when was he ‘pinged’ and which address was he in when it happened?
Is it appallingly cynical to suggest that the current situation with people being notified by the app may possibly not represent escalating infections as much as their desire to get out of going to work when the weather is this hot and sunny? I wonder if the situation will improve when it starts raining again?
I dunno. I note, however, that the official daily hospital admissions number, has not been updated since the 14th of July. Strikes me as odd. It was 747 per day, then; I imagine it’s quite a bit higher now? Possibly alarmingly so.
Is it appallingly cynical to suggest that the current situation with people being notified by the app may possibly not represent escalating infections as much as their desire to get out of going to work when the weather is this hot and sunny? I wonder if the situation will improve when it starts raining again?
Wait, what? People have jobs where time off work, planned or unplanned, doesn't just mean twice as much to do upon return!?
good cases figures today, lowest since 13th, and 6 days since the peak(?) on the 17th. Dare we hope?
Is it appallingly cynical to suggest that the current situation with people being notified by the app may possibly not represent escalating infections as much as their desire to get out of going to work when the weather is this hot and sunny? I wonder if the situation will improve when it starts raining again?
Wait, what? People have jobs where time off work, planned or unplanned, doesn't just mean twice as much to do upon return!?
If I had a shit job in a warehouse which I was paid badly for, I'd probably use any excuse to get off work! The work would be the same whatever you did...
By-the-by, how widespread is the experience of empty shelves etc.? Is it something posters here are experiencing? Genuine question from the outside.
By-the-by, how widespread is the experience of empty shelves etc.? Is it something posters here are experiencing? Genuine question from the outside.
Yeah some, but nothing drastic I've noticed. I'd say not that much worse than its been regularly since the UK left the EU. The fact it's now the weekend might result in more shortages though, as lots of families seem to shop then usually.
I think a lot of negative effects of Brexit have been brushed under the carpet due to the pandemic. The fishing industry is on its way to ruin, for example.
Some of that may be shipping issues, which are a global issue at the moment and appear set to stay that way for the rest of 2021 at least...
Some of that may be shipping issues, which are a global issue at the moment and appear set to stay that way for the rest of 2021 at least...
Warning: highly personalized rant time. I would really love to be able to see my UK-based children. It's been very nearly 20 months. There have been many barriers but most recently, when they announced fully vaccinated UK citizens could return to the country without self-isolating they specifically excluded those vaccinated abroad. I can't afford the time to self-isolate. My wife is still in long-term recovery from the very serious illness she contracted last year. I could perhaps leave her for one night, max two - not the 5+1 or 2 for the actual visit isolation imposes. I was elated this morning when it was announced the UK would start recognizing the vaccination status of UK citizens jabbed abroad.
Now, it turns out that vaccination status has to be approved by your GP. Um, the vast majority of hundreds of the thousands (if not millions) UK citizens vaccinated abroad don't have GPs. We're resident elsewhere. Who is this even meant to apply to? Does the government seriously think flocks of UK citizens were going abroad to get vaccinated? Sorry, just really pissed off by more incoherent and nonsensical decision making.
Warning: highly personalized rant time. I would really love to be able to see my UK-based children. It's been very nearly 20 months. There have been many barriers but most recently, when they announced fully vaccinated UK citizens could return to the country without self-isolating they specifically excluded those vaccinated abroad. I can't afford the time to self-isolate. My wife is still in long-term recovery from the very serious illness she contracted last year. I could perhaps leave her for one night, max two - not the 5+1 or 2 for the actual visit isolation imposes. I was elated this morning when it was announced the UK would start recognizing the vaccination status of UK citizens jabbed abroad.
Now, it turns out that vaccination status has to be approved by your GP. Um, the vast majority of hundreds of the thousands (if not millions) UK citizens vaccinated abroad don't have GPs. We're resident elsewhere. Who is this even meant to apply to? Does the government seriously think flocks of UK citizens were going abroad to get vaccinated? Sorry, just really pissed off by more incoherent and nonsensical decision making.
Warning: highly personalized rant time. I would really love to be able to see my UK-based children. It's been very nearly 20 months. There have been many barriers but most recently, when they announced fully vaccinated UK citizens could return to the country without self-isolating they specifically excluded those vaccinated abroad. I can't afford the time to self-isolate. My wife is still in long-term recovery from the very serious illness she contracted last year. I could perhaps leave her for one night, max two - not the 5+1 or 2 for the actual visit isolation imposes. I was elated this morning when it was announced the UK would start recognizing the vaccination status of UK citizens jabbed abroad.
Now, it turns out that vaccination status has to be approved by your GP. Um, the vast majority of hundreds of the thousands (if not millions) UK citizens vaccinated abroad don't have GPs. We're resident elsewhere. Who is this even meant to apply to? Does the government seriously think flocks of UK citizens were going abroad to get vaccinated? Sorry, just really pissed off by more incoherent and nonsensical decision making.
Can I interest you in a sympathetic tale of woe? Just to illustrate that it really isn’t just “The Government”, because the entire country has taken leave of it’s senses and Covid has been a catalyst.
I have to have my blood type certified.
I’ve known it since I joined the RN, 32 years ago, but strangely, have no way to prove it and your GP doesn’t retain this information.
I had to apply to the RN, on a freedom of information basis, for a copy of my medical records. Well that took three days of back and forth of form filling and phone calls and emails; only to eventually get a “Thank you for your request, we will endeavour to answer your query within three calendar months. Please be aware that current Covid working conditions may extend that time”…
Ok. No good to me, I need this by the beginning of August.
Back to the GP.
“We don’t do that kind of test”
🤦🏻♂️
I ask if it’s something I can get done privately and I’m told they’ll call me back.
🥳
They can do it! Can I be in the surgery at 3pm the next day?
I go, they bleed me and tell me it should take three days for the results.
Three days pass.
Nada.
I leave it a week and call on a Wednesday morning. This means joining a phone queue and it’s half an hour before I finally get through. The nice receptionist tells me I have to call back on a different number to speak to the doctor’s secretaries.
Another phone queue.
Only 15 minutes.
“I’m sorry sir, we can’t tell you if your results are back, we’re not even allowed to know what kind of test you had”.
Through clenched teeth: “Ok, how am I supposed to get the results”.
Apparently I must submit an “E consult” request through their website.
Could I not just leave a message for the doc to call me back?
No.
Fortunately I had set up my new NHS login earlier in the week, so I was quickly into the E consult page. After answering several “do you have covid” questions it finally asks me the reason for my request. Option three “are you requesting the results of a recent test”.
Ah ha! Yes, yes I am.
‘You must verify your identity”
Ok, it’s gonna be DOB and postcode, like it always is with the NHS, isn’t it..
Clicks “Ok”.
“You will need a form of photo id, either a passport or UK driver’s license”
Eh? Ok…
Scan in driver’s license.
“Please hold your device’s camera up to your face and follow directions to scan your face”
Grumble. FFS!
“Thank you, please allow 24 hours for verification”
Aaaarrrrgghh! Wanker! Fucking screw you!
Try again.
Small print, on the login page “continue as guest”, instead of logging in. Just needed DOB and Postcode.
😁
Clicks submit.
It’s Monday, the 19th.
“ Your request for an E consultation has been submitted, the practice will endeavour to respond before 18:00…. on the 26th…”
I could probably kill an innocent old lady at this point. I’m considering sticking a pencil in each nostril and shouting “Whibble”.
Anyway, I get a text two days later, saying the results aren’t in yet and to call the secretary at the end of the week, because of the nature of the test, I don’t have to repeat the above.
Friday, was a bit shitty, so I called this morning.
The lab has rejected the sample, because it wasn’t labelled correctly.
Wha…!
Look, I get you have no control here, but I need that by the end of this week, what the (excuse my French, here) fucking fuck fuck fuckity, do I do now?
Three call transfers later and I hop in the car to rush to the practice and they drag another vial of the red stuff.
Apparently, the system produces a printed label, that must be affixed to the vial (a pink vial, which is apparently significant) but this must accompanied by a hand written label too. The nurse is pretty annoyed, because the information required on the hand written label is…
Exactly the same as on the printed label.
In three days time, I have to call, again, to find out if my results are back and I’m not sure if I can get hold of the valium I need to do that.
PS,
It is not possible to enter the GP practice and just have a conversation over the counter. Phone, text, email. Sometimes you call and they answer you in an email, or you email and get a text message back. It’s a lottery.
So, good luck finding a GP to validate your vaccine status.
If I find a good pusher for the valium, I’ll pm you.
Warning: highly personalized rant time. I would really love to be able to see my UK-based children. It's been very nearly 20 months. There have been many barriers but most recently, when they announced fully vaccinated UK citizens could return to the country without self-isolating they specifically excluded those vaccinated abroad. I can't afford the time to self-isolate. My wife is still in long-term recovery from the very serious illness she contracted last year. I could perhaps leave her for one night, max two - not the 5+1 or 2 for the actual visit isolation imposes. I was elated this morning when it was announced the UK would start recognizing the vaccination status of UK citizens jabbed abroad.
Now, it turns out that vaccination status has to be approved by your GP. Um, the vast majority of hundreds of the thousands (if not millions) UK citizens vaccinated abroad don't have GPs. We're resident elsewhere. Who is this even meant to apply to? Does the government seriously think flocks of UK citizens were going abroad to get vaccinated? Sorry, just really pissed off by more incoherent and nonsensical decision making.
That’s really shit. Hope you can manage to get across soon.
It also looks like the UK gov is about to correct its stupid inconsistencies about which vaccination statuses are recognized.
Can I interest you in a sympathetic tale of woe? Just to illustrate that it really isn’t just “The Government”, because the entire country has taken leave of it’s senses and Covid has been a catalyst.
I honestly don’t understand what Labour (or the guardian) would like to happen? Since the 3rd lockdown, vaccine roll-out and the subsequent staged unlocking, any positive news to do with covid either they don’t acknowledge, or they complain about it being ‘reckless’. Does anybody in the country actually give a monkeys any more what Labour think should happen?
Very interested to hear what ukbers thing of this:
The main issue I have with these....people...is that there is the possibility of, or maybe even need for, debate, discussion and disagreement about the government's position on the death-vs-disruption balance of covid-tackling measures, about quantity vs quality of life, about covid vs co-morbidities, about actual restrictions on personal freedom and the justifications or lack of for those. BUT outright lies and falsehoods with anti-vaxx, anti-mask, 5G, nano-particles, micro-chips, great resets, plandemics, covid-denial, etc etc obscure and sabotage that potential debate and should be nothing to do with it whatsoever.
I honestly don’t understand what Labour (or the guardian) would like to happen? Since the 3rd lockdown, vaccine roll-out and the subsequent staged unlocking, any positive news to do with covid either they don’t acknowledge, or they complain about it being ‘reckless’. Does anybody in the country actually give a monkeys any more what Labour think should happen?
I'm finding this incredibly frustrating as a Labour voter and Guardian reader. Both are apparently incapable of critical thinking on the issue and its both irritating and damaging.
I'm finding this incredibly frustrating as a Labour voter and Guardian reader. Both are apparently incapable of critical thinking on the issue and its both irritating and damaging.I think exactly the same, only on most issues rather than just this one. :lol:
0:50 - pretty sure I got a flu vaccination and BCG (?) as a kid.
1:38 - "no data is available concerning long term effects" - equally no data is available concerning long term effects of covid on children. And the closest indication from the adult population seems to be (correct me if I'm wrong) that the long term effects of covid are much more prominent and likely than the long term effects of the vaccine.
Labour mainly disagree with the government on pretty sensible factors like mask compulsion, border controls, funded self isolation for people who won't otherwise be paid, and funding support to improve indoor ventilation ..... all of which might suddenly become very important if we have any new variant with vaccine escape.Neglecting to use this opportunity to improve ventilation in indoor public spaces has always seemed very shortsighted to me. Not only would it help with Covid, but would also have much longer term benefits by improving indoor air quality and all the associated health benefits that go along with it. The Irish govt are providing CO2 monitors for schools and support for upgrading ventilation where necessary, which is a start at least. The UK govt…nothing.
I'm quite frustrated with people that can't understand Labour mainly disagree with the government on pretty sensible factors like mask compulsion, border controls, funded self isolation for people who won't otherwise be paid, and funding support to improve indoor ventilation ..... all of which might suddenly become very important if we have any new variant with vaccine escape.
The vaccine thing just makes me giggle.
I’ve had every one available, as far as I know. ...
Pretty sure I’m no further along the spectrum than I already was and my phone reception hasn’t improved.
If anyone who is sceptical about vaccination thought about it for a few seconds, the tiny risk of any vaccine is so vastly outweighed by the risk associated with catching whatever the vaccine is for that there really shouldn't be any debate whatsoever.
- border controls cannot remain indefinitely, both for the travel industry/holidays and those who want to see family abroad. At the moment there is no scenario I've yet read about where Labour would be happy for border controls to be lessened. This seems incredibly wrong headed to me.
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- border controls cannot remain indefinitely, both for the travel industry/holidays and those who want to see family abroad. At the moment there is no scenario I've yet read about where Labour would be happy for border controls to be lessened. This seems incredibly wrong headed to me.
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No but the plans announced today are just as clearly poorly planned as any from this government. Airlines are expected to check vaccine status on check in, any vaccine accepted from these countries as they are trustworthy, both according to Raab on the today programme this morning. So ok perhaps with Germany and the United states but what about Hungary, are they trustworthy? Is a bargain bucket Ryanair operation in Hungary really going to be that hot on proof of vaccination?
No but the plans announced today are just as clearly poorly planned as any from this government.I'm also not clear what criteria they've used to base this decision on. Vaccination rates in Canada for example are higher than the UK, US, and EU, but as far as I'm aware aren't exempt from quarantine. So clearly not a data driven policy.
No but the plans announced today are just as clearly poorly planned as any from this government.I'm also not clear what criteria they've used to base this decision on. Vaccination rates in Canada for example are higher than the UK, US, and EU, but as far as I'm aware aren't exempt from quarantine. So clearly not a data driven policy.
-compulsory masks are largely irrelevant in an open society as large sectors of it cant function with them eg crowded pubs and nightclubs. If you think these shouldn't be open thats fine (though I disagree) but if you don't then compulsory masks are both unworkable and irrelevant anyway as there is an enormous amount of societal contact. I agree that wearing them on public transport is a good courtesy to keep up but it seems increasingly pointless to me. On the tram in Manc a few days ago I wore one but almost nobody else was. Pissing in the wind was the phrase I thought of!
Yeah I agree, I'm happy to keep wearing them, I was just making the point that if nobody else does it starts to feel a bit pointless. I imagine this stage is particularly worrying for vulnerable people and so I've got no intention of going to the supermarket without a mask currently. Equally, if I happened to forget I probably wouldn't feel that bad either as their use seems to have dropped off a cliff where I am at least.As far as I can see, the majority (at a guess 75/80%) of the people I’ve seen in shops or coming into the Bunker, are still wearing masks.
Quite why the decision to drop mask rules in shop and the like was made I fail to understand. Everything required was already in place, and in has a measurable impact on transmission. I can only assume that it is a part of the governments ‘COVID is over, now go and spend money’ narrative.
And to rapidly increase the numbers of young people withantibodieslong COVID ahead of autumn’s seasonal pressure, perhaps?
Being a pedant, I have to point out that with AstraZeneca, because the blood clotting issue risk (small as it is) increases as you get younger, then if Covid rates in a society are low enough, there's a crossover point where if you're young enough, the risk from the vaccine is actually higher than the risk of catching Covid and being seriously harmed by it (IIRC, if there are high levels of Covid around, the vaccine's safer at any age).
The risk of blood clots is a lot less than it is for the contraceptive pill and there is a brilliant, no side-effects alternative to the pill (for the vast majority of people that use it to prevent pregnancy although I accept there are some who use it for other things). I can't help but feel that the huge amount of caution that is being taken is because it affects males as well as females.
That’s an eye-widening snippet of info Ru.. Do you have any links to anything published?
What are the symptoms for ‘clotting issues’, versus clotting events?
I'm quite frustrated with people that can't understand Labour mainly disagree with the government on pretty sensible factors like mask compulsion, border controls, funded self isolation for people who won't otherwise be paid, and funding support to improve indoor ventilation ..... all of which might suddenly become very important if we have any new variant with vaccine escape.
I've immediately remembered why I stopped posting about covid...I disagree with almost everything in the above sentence (bar the funded self isolation which is long overdue). In brief:
-compulsory masks are largely irrelevant in an open society as large sectors of it cant function with them eg crowded pubs and nightclubs. If you think these shouldn't be open thats fine (though I disagree) but if you don't then compulsory masks are both unworkable and irrelevant anyway as there is an enormous amount of societal contact. I agree that wearing them on public transport is a good courtesy to keep up but it seems increasingly pointless to me. On the tram in Manc a few days ago I wore one but almost nobody else was. Pissing in the wind was the phrase I thought of!
- border controls cannot remain indefinitely, both for the travel industry/holidays and those who want to see family abroad. At the moment there is no scenario I've yet read about where Labour would be happy for border controls to be lessened. This seems incredibly wrong headed to me.
- indoor ventilation is absolutely something we should be improving, but should be done alongside opening things up. Clearly we can't wait for this enormous amount of building work to be completed before relaxing things of HS2 will be done before it (maybe!). Again, I'm not clear on Labour's timeline for improving ventilation and how it related to relaxing things. They obviously have to happen concurrently. I agree it would have multi faceted benefits though Ali.
[The simultaneous effect of having low platelets (preventing a proper clotting response) and having clots as well means that there is no effective treatment - they can't use normal anti-clotting medication.
That’s an eye-widening snippet of info Ru.. Do you have any links to anything published?
What are the symptoms for ‘clotting issues’, versus clotting events?
I'm not aware of anything published yet, it's all a bit vague, but from a decent source. Symptoms of clotting issues can be things like bruising and petechial rash - basically when you bleed through your skin. It's very difficult to know what it means on a population level as the numbers might turn out to be very low percentages. I also don't know if they're reported using the Yellow Card system, but as Yellow Card events can be self reported there's a lot of dross. If you read through all the reported yellow card events, there's stuff in there like getting cosmetic surgery which I'm pretty sure isn't a genuine vaccine reaction.
But the stats still make it clear that (subject to previous caveats re: trade-offs and age cut-offs), AZ is much safer than getting Covid.
TLDR:
Masks now being optional is definitely an issue for some, a neighbour of mine is continuing to shield as she has a diminished immune response; now she can no longer drive as she is overdue an assessment from an optometrist for an eye condition, which has to be performed at a specified opticians.
However said opticians can no longer assure her that everyone in the practice will be wearing a mask (‘cos they don’t legally have to). So she can no longer drive, and due to the same mask rules can’t use public transport.
[The simultaneous effect of having low platelets (preventing a proper clotting response) and having clots as well means that there is no effective treatment - they can't use normal anti-clotting medication.
I thought the current protocol was non-heparin anticoagulants and intravenous immunoglobulin?
https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1914
https://www.hematology.org/covid-19/vaccine-induced-immune-thrombotic-thrombocytopenia
Don't know how effective that is, but certainly the fatality rate has been dropping: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/ema-logs-more-clotting-cases-after-astrazeneca-shot-death-rate-lower-2021-05-28/
I will note that not long after my first jab, I got a severe headache with nausea and vomiting which wasn't a normal migraine for me but which ticked all the boxes in the leaflet you get after AZ about potential warning symptoms, and ended up being advised by NHS 111 to go to A&E a.s.a.p. and get a blood test (which I did -- turned out all was fine). So, not trying to downplay this issue, because that was a somewhat scary way to spend a day.
But the stats still make it clear that (subject to previous caveats re: trade-offs and age cut-offs), AZ is much safer than getting Covid.
And it sucks that AZ has this issue, however rare, because in other respects it seems like a workhorse.
Actually, as a side note, I can mention that NHS 111 and A&E seemed to be super on the ball re: VITT/TTS -- if you pick a headache as your primary symptom on the 111 website, the decision tree asks if you had a Covid vaccine within X number of days (and that led to me getting a callback from a nurse and then a doctor).
And if you go into A&E saying "I had AZ this many days ago and I have these symptoms" they know exactly what to test for.
I was rather impressed and reassured by the whole thing.
don't dismiss it straight away!You've dismissed any engagement following your previous posts, despite claiming to be interested in what UKBers think. 3rd time lucky to actually discuss the matter?? Or maybe that's quite enough for now?? (It is from me).
There's 173 pages in this godforsaken thread, who on Earth is going to read through that and expect to emerge with their sanity intact?? :blink:
More high brow than my last two posts so don't dismiss it straight away!
Dr Robert Malone, the inventor of using RNA as a drug.
It's quite long unfortunately but worth the time. Skip the first 23min.
He gives some of the backstory to the development of the RNA technology and talks about the currant vaccines (from 1:08ish).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYkUePQMfkE&t=376s
More high brow than my last two posts so don't dismiss it straight away!
Dr Robert Malone, the inventor of using RNA as a drug.
Nice. Is there a comparison graphic for non vaccinated people?
Whilst I like the graphic, does it not need a timescale to be meaningful? Effectively it's saying that the risk of symptomatic Covid in the vaccinated is roughly 1 in a 1000. Over what period of time and what is the comaparable risk in the unvaccinated?For the second part, see the above post.
There's 173 pages in this godforsaken thread, who on Earth is going to read through that and expect to emerge with their sanity intact?? :blink:
Ummm.
I get the impression Slabs would. Then summarise it, link to relevant posts etc and probably enjoy it.
(If she’s not working as an intelligence analyst, for some sneaky-beaky Government agency, this country is missing a trick.
There's 173 pages in this godforsaken thread, who on Earth is going to read through that and expect to emerge with their sanity intact?? :blink:
Ummm.
I get the impression Slabs would. Then summarise it, link to relevant posts etc and probably enjoy it.
Awwww, I think that's the nicest thing anyone's ever said to me. *sniffs*
(Can't claim to have my sanity intact, but that was true beforehand ...)(If she’s not working as an intelligence analyst, for some sneaky-beaky Government agency, this country is missing a trick.
Not my line of workthough I'd have to say that, wouldn't I?.
Though (on a tangent) I've always found it hilarious that for over 20 years, GCHQ has apparently had one of the best programmes in the UK for supporting neurodiverse employees. If they recruit people with the abilities they need (especially for high-level cryptography), a ridiculously-high percentage will have autism, ADHD, dyslexia, or other stuff from that cluster, so they've HAD to figure out ways of supporting people like me in the workplace, or they couldn't function.
Interesting that having gone on about our amazing vaccine rollout for ages, we're now dropping behind:
https://inews.co.uk/news/world/spain-covid-vaccine-uk-roll-out-overtake-vaccination-approach-explained-1127933
If I remember correctly, Germany is also nearly there.
Christ ...
Christ ...
Icke or Trump?
Christ ...
Icke or Trump?
So let me get this right - the vaccine alters your DNA but it's also fixable by eating a pineapple, which I'm assuming alters your DNA back?
Power to the pineapple!
I am sharing the following hypothesis urgently of how the Covid-19 experimental injections may be harming and killing in the hope that it may be able to help in some way to help stop this attempted mass genocide. I do not believe this is an accident and I will explain why
My hypothesis is that the experimental mRNA Covid-19 injections contain a magnetised nano particle attached to the mRNA which crosses the blood-brain barrier and is then attracted to the brain, particularly mid-line structures. I further hypothesise that two things aid this passage of the magnetised mRNA to the brain: local temperature effects from EMF radiation and from an artificial network such as from hydrogel.
All so obvious in hindsight, how could we have been so stupid. :slap:
This is really going to fuck up the MRI industry.
Christ ...
Icke or Trump?
So let me get this right - the vaccine alters your DNA but it's also fixable by eating a pineapple, which I'm assuming alters your DNA back?
Power to the pineapple!
Wait, I think I missed the pineapple -- when did that come in?
I'm only familiar with pine needle tea, which is being marketed as a way for unvaccinated people to protect themselves against the evil spike proteins "shedding" from vaccinated people ...
(N.B. None of this is true. Virus "shedding" can only occur with live attenuated vaccines, such as the oral polio vaccine. It is physically impossible for the Covid vaccines to "shed" anything. This is all completely fucking imaginary. Also if you're afraid of spike proteins, the best way of avoiding them is getting vaccinated, because the number temporarily produced in response to the vaccine is miniscule compared to the deluge produced by getting actual Covid.)
They're definitely getting braver, daring each other to be more rebellious
They're definitely getting braver, daring each other to be more rebellious
Also, escalating levels of violent rhetoric:
https://respectfulinsolence.com/2021/08/20/the-violent-rhetoric-of-the-antivaccine-movement-antimask-covid-19-update/
They are absolutely going to get people killed (er, directly, not just by getting people to refuse/delay vaccination).
They're definitely getting braver, daring each other to be more rebellious
Also, escalating levels of violent rhetoric:
https://respectfulinsolence.com/2021/08/20/the-violent-rhetoric-of-the-antivaccine-movement-antimask-covid-19-update/
They are absolutely going to get people killed (er, directly, not just by getting people to refuse/delay vaccination).
I think it's a symptom of something which seems to be seeding in Western democracies of people needing something to protest against, perhaps best exemplified by the Qanon bullshit. Qanon has absolutely nothing to do with reality, total fantasy rubbish but lots of people apparently think it's worth protesting violently about.
Anti vaxxer / lockdown protesters are no better, the ideas they propound don't withstand 5 seconds of logical thought. They've all been to a school of some sort and can't really all have been lobotomised, there must be a sort of group suspension of disbelief which allows them to indulge in this crap.
A cynic might note that about half the population are, necessarily, below average intelligence; however you measure it…
QuoteA cynic might note that about half the population are, necessarily, below average intelligence; however you measure it…
Depends what you mean by average, and assumes everyone doesnt have identical intelligence :sorry:
SOS.
Same Old Shit, different day.
The same people, or at least different people, who are virtually indistinguishable from these people, except by virtue of passing fashion and styling; have been with us since at least the start of the industrial age.
I've said before Confirmation Bias + Dunning Kruger is a lethal combination.
This graph from the ONS site gives some perspective on current Covid deaths.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/july2021 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/july2021)
(https://www.fastascent.co.uk/fa/ons.PNG)
People are all quiet different, I think. I’m afraid I’m really very cynical on this subject. It’s not about me thinking that half the population are thick, it’s more about many years of watching people who might excel in a particular field, assuming that they have some enhanced abilities and insight into every other field of human knowledge.
Well, it found us.
Youngest (12) developed a fever last night. She’d done a lateral flow earlier in the day (neg), but it didn’t go and didn’t feel right, despite no other symptoms. So late last night we booked a test slot for this morning.
I really thought we were being way too cautious as we’ve been very careful etc.
Results just came back positive.
She feels shit, but only a fever.
Meanwhile my Aunt (78) was taken into hospital this evening with Covid and chest pains, plus a dodgy ECG. Devon is not a great place to be right now…
Now wondering if the vertigo I’ve had the last few days is, perhaps, not down to a dodgy free dive I did earlier in the week, after all.
Well, it found us.
Fuck, sorry to hear it. May it be as mild as possible.
You got a pulse oximeter? Best way of keeping an eye on oxygen saturation levels at home -- Covid is known for "happy hypoxia", where people's oxygen levels tank without them showing signs of respiratory distress.
Honestly, we’re pretty pissed off that we let this happen.
Sucks guys, ride it out.
Did you get a positive test Liam? Any idea where you picked it up?
I went out to meet some old work colleagues on Friday night (second time out anywhere since first lockdown) and woke with a sore throat, which got worse over the weekend. Did a RAT this morning and it shows negative, but WFH as a precaution. Will test again tomorrow, but feels like classic strep throat, which i get a lot in ordinary times (once or twice a year).
Sucks guys, ride it out.
Did you get a positive test Liam? Any idea where you picked it up?
I went out to meet some old work colleagues on Friday night (second time out anywhere since first lockdown) and woke with a sore throat, which got worse over the weekend. Did a RAT this morning and it shows negative, but WFH as a precaution. Will test again tomorrow, but feels like classic strep throat, which i get a lot in ordinary times (once or twice a year).
Sucks guys, ride it out.
Did you get a positive test Liam? Any idea where you picked it up?
I went out to meet some old work colleagues on Friday night (second time out anywhere since first lockdown) and woke with a sore throat, which got worse over the weekend. Did a RAT this morning and it shows negative, but WFH as a precaution. Will test again tomorrow, but feels like classic strep throat, which i get a lot in ordinary times (once or twice a year).
I did two lateral flow tests. The first showed a very faint positive, but I probably didn't try hard enough getting mucus on the stick. On the 2nd try a couple hours later I made myself gag and tickled my brain good and proper. A clear positive that one.
Weve had a holiday at home over the last week, visiting theme parks, zoos, farms, etc with the kids every day, so I was probably asking for it to be fair.
My temperature is now up by 2 degrees and I feel fooking freezing, but otherwise OK and most importantly can still do a one armer.
Sucks guys, ride it out.
Did you get a positive test Liam? Any idea where you picked it up?
I went out to meet some old work colleagues on Friday night (second time out anywhere since first lockdown) and woke with a sore throat, which got worse over the weekend. Did a RAT this morning and it shows negative, but WFH as a precaution. Will test again tomorrow, but feels like classic strep throat, which i get a lot in ordinary times (once or twice a year).
I did two lateral flow tests. The first showed a very faint positive, but I probably didn't try hard enough getting mucus on the stick. On the 2nd try a couple hours later I made myself gag and tickled my brain good and proper. A clear positive that one.
Weve had a holiday at home over the last week, visiting theme parks, zoos, farms, etc with the kids every day, so I was probably asking for it to be fair.
My temperature is now up by 2 degrees and I feel fooking freezing, but otherwise OK and most importantly can still do a one armer.
You're better off resting until it's gone. Anecdotally, I think you're more likely to get long Covid by trying to do too much through the symptoms.
Not sure if I might be mis-reading or misunderstanding some of the previous posts but…
If you are symptomatic a LFT is not an appropriate test to rule out Covid. If you have symptoms get a PCR and await the results.
LFT’s are not great tests, but they are relatively easy and quick. So they make sense as a way of catching a proportion of asymptomatic carriers that will have a reasonable level of compliance and and degree of effectiveness. But the are not the test to use if you are symptomatic.
Will did you just throw down some anecdotal science?? Bold move…
Not sure if I might be mis-reading or misunderstanding some of the previous posts but…
If you are symptomatic a LFT is not an appropriate test to rule out Covid. If you have symptoms get a PCR and await the results.
LFT’s are not great tests, but they are relatively easy and quick. So they make sense as a way of catching a proportion of asymptomatic carriers that will have a reasonable level of compliance and and degree of effectiveness. But the are not the test to use if you are symptomatic.
And that is the problem Webbo, exactly.My experience of co working with a few patients in conjunction with chronic fatigue service and working with the Team leader from the CF service in another role. Is that you get referred for CF when all your medical tests come back negative because there is no medical test for it.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/aug/30/withdrawal-planned-guidance-me-leaves-patients-distraught
There is a startling lack of therapeutic progress since the Royal Free, nearly 70 years ago. https://me-pedia.org/wiki/1955_Royal_Free_Hospital_outbreak
That depends on how much you have invested in being ill. :worms:
And that is the problem Webbo, exactly.My experience of co working with a few patients in conjunction with chronic fatigue service and working with the Team leader from the CF service in another role. Is that you get referred for CF when all your medical tests come back negative because there is no medical test for it.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/aug/30/withdrawal-planned-guidance-me-leaves-patients-distraught
There is a startling lack of therapeutic progress since the Royal Free, nearly 70 years ago. https://me-pedia.org/wiki/1955_Royal_Free_Hospital_outbreak
You can test for Covid so to me there is no connection.
Does absence of definitive aetiology prove absence of physical illness?
Some anecdotal evidence for someone...
My family of 4 (two kids 6 & 3), Father in Law, Sister in Law and her son (13) and daughter (31) had 1 week holiday together.
All adults double-jabbed, mix of Pfizer and AZ.
31YO had to test before returning to work, came back positive. We all then tested and everyone except myself (AZ) and S-i-L (also AZ) negative. The other adults (Pfizer) all positive and consequently symptomatic, our youngest did too.
PCR tests confirm all of these except our daughter is now clear.
So of our sample group, the AZ vaccine worked, the Pfizer didn't prevent infection. I was the most recently jab'd (3 weeks ago), the others were quite early as all NHS frontline or over 75.
Apologies to anyone I offended. I shouldn’t have posted half way through a bottle of wine.
What I was trying to say is that sometimes someone’s illness is part of a bigger picture. It is not the illness it’s self but how does it effect the person and everyone in there network.
It can foster dependence in not only the ill person but also their carers. So if someone recovers from their illness suddenly all relationships have changed. This may not have a positive outcome for those relationships. So for some people getting better may be perceived as a negative outcome as they may fear that as no one needs care for them no one will be around anymore.
Apologies to anyone I offended. I shouldn’t have posted half way through a bottle of wine.
What I was trying to say is that sometimes someone’s illness is part of a bigger picture. It is not the illness it’s self but how does it effect the person and everyone in there network.
It can foster dependence in not only the ill person but also their carers. So if someone recovers from their illness suddenly all relationships have changed. This may not have a positive outcome for those relationships. So for some people getting better may be perceived as a negative outcome as they may fear that as no one needs care for them no one will be around anymore.
So of our group of 8; 5 double-vax'd adults and 3x under 14's - all but one adult, and one child caught it. The ones who didn't catch it had Covid at Christmas, supporting the theory that immunity from contracting the disease is stronger than the vaccination, but equally the vaccination made everyone's illness much more manageable.
I hope you still agree when I give this example. Someone I know who was a successful athlete and very single minded and out spoken when discussing relationships. Often stating that no matter what relationship they were in it wouldn’t stop them training or competing. However once in a relationship and having 2 young children pressure to give up the training was immense. At this point they developed CF which stopped the conflict about training/ competing and childcare etc.
Therefore the CF in this case is Psychologically saving someone from changing their rigid belief system or having relationship issues.
I hope you still agree when I give this example. Someone I know who was a successful athlete and very single minded and out spoken when discussing relationships. Often stating that no matter what relationship they were in it wouldn’t stop them training or competing. However once in a relationship and having 2 young children pressure to give up the training was immense. At this point they developed CF which stopped the conflict about training/ competing and childcare etc.
Therefore the CF in this case is Psychologically saving someone from changing their rigid belief system or having relationship issues.
Absolutely, assuming that you are using CF as an acronym for chronic fatigue as opposed to cystic fibrosis in this case. That sort of thing tallies with what I saw in practice as a physio treating people with lower back pain, and things like fibromyalgia, but also with recovery from operations or fractures. It is also supported by a lot of healthcare research that I've seen. That doesn't diminish these conditions or mean anyone is faking anything, anymore than it would if they were suffering from anxiety and depression.
I am (probably shouldn’t be) shocked at how crap the Track and Trace system is.
I’d be interested in anyone’s knowledge on what the faintness of the line means in terms of infection/vaccination. I know any visible line means positive but in our small sample the appearance of the line would seem to correlate with the level/existence of symptoms or vaccination.
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-cheek-devon-cornwall-encouraging-covid-spread-1173952
encouraging-covid-spreadIs clickbait bollox for a start since no-one is actually encouraging it.
We may be the playground for the rich, but the region feels entirely neglected by those politicians that love to frolic among their loaded business friends down here.That playground is also your industry i.e. tourism.
School pupils are likely to be forced to wear masks at school from this week. The hospitals are limiting visiting times and allowing just one relative in at a time. Those sound like restrictions to me, minister.So on one hand he's moaning about the covid rates, and on the other hand sounds like he's moaning about restrictions to tackle those covid rates.
The feeling down here is that we were doing just fine before Boris Johnson insisted on bringing world leaders and 20,000 hangers-on down to Carbis Bay in Cornwall.From what I understand G7 isn't some pointless social shindig, it's an important summit to start looking at global issues. I might be wrong about this, but I get the impression that it had to be held somewhere and the global benefits could outweigh the costs.
Instead of sticking to the mask wearing and social distancing advice, Johnson went in the opposite direction. He permitted 53,000 largely unvaccinated young adults to mosh together at the Boardmasters music and surfing festival in Newquay earlier this month.The unlocking and relaxing of restriction was planned and known about for months (and delayed). I presume the author knows full well about the benefits to the economy and peoples' well-being of those YAs moshing together.
As Professor John Drury – one of the Government’s most senior scientific advisors – has told i: “The Government has basically said ‘it’s safe now, it’s fine, you’re not going to die’. The problem is of course that 100 people a day are dying.”In comparison to the death rates previously it is very different yes. 100 daily deaths is a lot better than 1000+ daily deaths when the transmission was previously this high. Maybe he should nail his colours to the mast as a zero-Covider.
or thought it was a good idea to infect as many unvaccinated young people as we possibly could in Newquay.This is just pointless shite that completely undermines any point he's trying to make. Why even say something this stupid?? No-one thinks it;s a good idea to infect as many people as possible, it's whether people think that increased infection in the context of vaccines greatly reducing the health risks is a risk worth taking compared to the benefits.
We didn’t unlock the entire country, end all Covid-precautions, or push our health services beyond breaking point. We didn’t do that Mr Johnson. You did.That's entirely correct. And all the benefits (economy, education, hospitality, travel, social, well-being, physical and mental health) to that are also down to Bozzer's decision. I presume the author previously vigorously campaigned to further delay the unlocking?? If so he can argue his case with everyone has benefitted from the unlocking, including the 53,000 YAs he's moaning about.
Well in spite of being in bed for 2 days yesterday and the day before, all LFTS and the PCR test I went for yesterday are all negative. Seems there is a really bad strain of flu going around up here, I guess immune systems are weakened by very little contact with anyone and so no germ transfer for the last 18 months.
Well in spite of being in bed for 2 days yesterday and the day before, all LFTS and the PCR test I went for yesterday are all negative. Seems there is a really bad strain of flu going around up here, I guess immune systems are weakened by very little contact with anyone and so no germ transfer for the last 18 months.
Andy, your symptoms sound identical to mine.
In the spirit of what this thread seems to have become i.e. self-reportage of minor bugs and sniffles: I can report that today I too don’t have covid. Actually feel quite good all round. Temp seems OK, no aches or pains, no fatigue. Perhaps slightly dehydrated. I’ll drink some water before I go bouldering in the cave later.
Hope that’s useful. :ras:
Although if the reports come from people without COVID, that's silly.
Military Psychiatrists everything’s got to fit the text book description and if it’s not in the book it doesn’t exist.
This is generalisation.
Any other over 50s now getting directly invited to a flu vaccination appointment by the NHS? A first for me.
I have no clue if it’s actually a different vacc, but I am fairly sure nobody over there has fucking clue what they’re doing.either.
I received a text asking me to contact to book an appointment last week. November 6th was the earliest appointment available and I’m over 65.
Today I heard the phrase "fuck the unvaccinated" twice, from two very different people.
They sounded like they meant it.
Is this an organised thing that I have missed?
Today I heard the phrase "fuck the unvaccinated" twice, from two very different people.
They sounded like they meant it.
Is this an organised thing that I have missed?
In what sense I wonder?
Today I heard the phrase "fuck the unvaccinated" twice, from two very different people.
They sounded like they meant it.
Is this an organised thing that I have missed?
In what sense I wonder?
One person was an outraged bystander at one of Saturday's anti vax demos. The other was having a rant about the resources required by Covid treatment in hospitals.
I don't think they meant "fuck" in the sexual way.
It sounded like they were quoting someone or some meme. I wasn't in a position to ask questions about where the phrase came from.
I’m mutual FB friends with a certain well known climber, who may have the initial “S”. Anyway, I largely ignore his rants, but occasionally it’s too tooth grindingly penetrating to skim over.
I’m mutual FB friends with a certain well known climber, who may have the initial “S”. Anyway, I largely ignore his rants, but occasionally it’s too tooth grindingly penetrating to skim over.
Saw this and first though of Ste Mac which seem a bit unlikely to say the least. A quick facebook search on likely candidates found him first go - not on my friend list but significant number of mutual friends, I'd definitely have unfriended by this point (assuming were talking about the same well known climber :whistle:).
So, is it proving that giving the UK population up to 3 doses of vaccines while neglecting to given support to other countries with their vaccination program is going to backfire spectacularly if this Omnicron varint proves to be particularly virulent and we are back to square 1?
So, is it proving that giving the UK population up to 3 doses of vaccines while neglecting to given support to other countries with their vaccination program is going to backfire spectacularly if this Omnicron varint proves to be particularly virulent and we are back to square 1?
From what I've read online on social media in last few days seems like getting people to wear masks again will be a tricky one.
Hopefully the walls won't follow suit with forcing masks on us again.
From what I've read online on social media in last few days seems like getting people to wear masks again will be a tricky one.
Hopefully the walls won't follow suit with forcing masks on us again.
I don't really get why people in the UK object so much to wearing masks in shops etc. Seems a pretty trivial inconvenience. Wearing one while climbing would be a PITA but was never a thing anyway as far as I recall. Wearing one in reception or similar seems pretty easy and low hassle.
Won't be much of a hassle here as we never stopped wearing masks in Wales, perhaps there was some data showing how much spittle is emitted merely saying a place name.
I'm uncertain if the data from Wales or Scotland conclusively shows a beneficial impact on rates, versus non-mask England? Anyone?
So, is it proving that giving the UK population up to 3 doses of vaccines while neglecting to given support to other countries with their vaccination program is going to backfire spectacularly if this Omnicron varint proves to be particularly virulent and we are back to square 1?
Bit of yes and no, innit.
Apparently SA has had massive hesitancy issues, coupled with a large HIV denial movement/problem etc. I’ve read too much the last few days to recall which article to quote, but I’m sure they even had to slow deliveries from suppliers etc as stocks were expiring before they could be used.
Won't be much of a hassle here as we never stopped wearing masks in Wales, perhaps there was some data showing how much spittle is emitted merely saying a place name.
I'm uncertain if the data from Wales or Scotland conclusively shows a beneficial impact on rates, versus non-mask England? Anyone?
Not seen any comparative studies, but this popped up in my inbox:
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj-2021-068302 (https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj-2021-068302)
Make of it what you will.
Won't be much of a hassle here as we never stopped wearing masks in Wales, perhaps there was some data showing how much spittle is emitted merely saying a place name.
So, is it proving that giving the UK population up to 3 doses of vaccines while neglecting to given support to other countries with their vaccination program is going to backfire spectacularly if this Omnicron varint proves to be particularly virulent and we are back to square 1?
Bit of yes and no, innit.
Apparently SA has had massive hesitancy issues, coupled with a large HIV denial movement/problem etc. I’ve read too much the last few days to recall which article to quote, but I’m sure they even had to slow deliveries from suppliers etc as stocks were expiring before they could be used.
I think Omnicron is not limited to South Africa alone, but has been detected in several Southern African countries, where the availability and take up has been even lower.
From what I've read online on social media in last few days seems like getting people to wear masks again will be a tricky one.
Hopefully the walls won't follow suit with forcing masks on us again.
I don't really get why people in the UK object so much to wearing masks in shops etc. Seems a pretty trivial inconvenience. Wearing one while climbing would be a PITA but was never a thing anyway as far as I recall. Wearing one in reception or similar seems pretty easy and low hassle.
I don't really get why people in the UK object so much to wearing masks in shops etc. Seems a pretty trivial inconvenience. Wearing one while climbing would be a PITA but was never a thing anyway as far as I recall. Wearing one in reception or similar seems pretty easy and low hassle.Quoted for truth.
I was very grateful for my session at Rainbow Rocket last summer which seems to have been the only wall in the UK that required mask wearing at all times (and also had all of their shutters open to give plenty of ventilation).
Usually Goop loving middle class mum, bringing little Farquhar in for the first time, while she shops online for Himalayan salt enema kits (or whatever it is currently in vogue).I believe Lattice do a reasonably priced version with Lattice-coloured salt crystals, for pre-redpoint detox and weight-loss - you should stock them in your wee wall shop along side the finger tape and liquid chalk :yes:
Usually Goop loving middle class mum, bringing little Farquhar in for the first time, while she shops online for Himalayan salt enema kits (or whatever it is currently in vogue).
Usually Goop loving middle class mum, bringing little Farquhar in for the first time, while she shops online for Himalayan salt enema kits (or whatever it is currently in vogue).
Yeah, there's a terrifying pathway from "wellness" circles into anti-vaxxer stuff and then sometimes deeper down the conspiracy theory rabbithole -- one researcher coined the fantastic phrase "Pastel QAnon"
https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/qanon-pastel-antivax-natural-parenting-community-freebirth-1098518/
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/yoga-disinformation-qanon-conspiracy-wellness
More so than in any other community?
More so than in any other community?
Clicking on the summary report brings up a front page saying 'why did so many thousands die unnecessarily?' I happen to think the government fucked up in myriad different ways and a lot of people did die unnecessarily, but surely an independent report should at least have the pretence of independence?
Or as is perhaps more likely, given that the report was founded and presumably funded by a campaign group called Keep Our NHS Public, whose website would suggest aren't the biggest fans of the government anyway, that this report has concluded what it was always designed to conclude? Again, I suspect I agree with the reports conclusions and dislike ther government intensely but provenance matters and we might as well be clear about what we're reading.
It's a pressure group and not trying to hide that. The work is one of the few ways the voices of those who have lost loved ones are collectively being heard right now and it gives a comprehensive detailed collection of things the government actually got wrong.
Such progressive cynicism is what the populists want.... if the information is useful and you can agree with the conclusions in the context of knowing it's from a pressure group, what exactly is the big issue here?
The key issue your scepticism should be focussed on is the content
[..]
opaque funding support,
You could apply that argument to any charity or foundation or institute.
The key issue your scepticism should be focussed on is the content
[..]
opaque funding support,
Didn't take you long to fall fowl of your own views :lol:
You seem to have entirely missed my point, which was that you argued that content rather than funding source was the place to focus scepticism/critique, and then two lines later took aim at opaque funding sources.
The key issue your scepticism should be focussed on is the content
[..]
opaque funding support,
Didn't take you long to fall fowl of your own views :lol:
The key issue your scepticism should be focussed on is the content
[..]
opaque funding support,
Didn't take you long to fall fowl of your own views :lol:
Chickens coming home to roost, clearly.
For anyone who's got friends who are convinced that being "fit" means they don't need the vaccine:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/nov/30/life-tragic-death-john-eyers-fitness-fanatic-who-refused-covid-vaccine
More so than in any other community?
The pandemic isn't over until its over but a few western countries, including the UK are planning for 3rd boosters while the developing world increasingly desperately needs help.
The pandemic isn't over until its over but a few western countries, including the UK are planning for 3rd boosters while the developing world increasingly desperately needs help.
Total agreement, but it's also worth people being aware that, on the individual level, you not taking a booster you're eligible for doesn't mean it can or will go to another country, it'll just be wasted:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/12/individuals-vaccine-inequality-booster-jab
Redistribution has to happen much higher up the chain (and Pollard knows whereof he speaks).
I'm advising everyone I know to take boosters if they're eligible and to sign petitions and write stroppy letters to their MPs demanding the UK get serious about donating to Covax and supporting patent waivers.
On the subject of boosters not much seems to be being said in the news (unless I missed it) about how we have supply issues with Pfizer and so most of what's left for the next months in England will be Moderna.
Yeah I totally agree with that, for now. I do think we need to be pushing back about the need for 2nd and 3rd boosters (outside the most vulnerable groups). They can be redirected if enough people campaign.
Dunno if that makes any practical difference, as they're basically the same vaccine in different hats (apart from Moderna having a higher dosage than Pfizer, which is why IIRC they use a half-dose when they're using it as a booster).
So out of interest, in terms of what you want to happen based on the data you look at, you'd be in favour of an immediate lockdown, return to furlough etc?That's a question for LozT, surely??
It doesn't matter what you think.
So out of interest, in terms of what you want to happen based on the data you look at, you'd be in favour of an immediate lockdown, return to furlough etc?Surely the first step is to fully implement the previously announced Plan B: covid pass, masks and advice to work from home. Apart from the advice to work from home, it's no more than is already in place in Wales.
I think its fairly likely that we'll see a wave this winter but I'm unconvinced it is politically possible to lockdown again for numerous reasons, so the more likely outcome is muddling through. Not least because if the variant is as bad as you suggest, we won't be able to stop it spreading anyway, even in a lockdown.
Surely the first step is to fully implement the previously announced Plan B: covid pass, masks and advice to work from home. Apart from the advice to work from home, it's no more than is already in place in Wales.
All the UK evidence is that public compliance with clear advice linked to genuine hospital need was way better than most of SAGE expected (one of the reasons the March 2020 lockdown was so slow was a worry of lockdown fatigue, subsequently proven wrong). That's why I'm a dove on population compliance: based on that evidence (the biggest hawks tend to be libertarian or some level of covid or vaccination deniers).
Sweden also showed us that more consistent messaging trusted by the population led to much fewer deaths, less stringent restrictions, lower health system strains and lower lockdown economic costs.
Very romantic Will but Sweden has a slightly higher percentage of urban living.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_countries_by_percentage_of_urban_population
Very romantic Will but Sweden has a slightly higher percentage of urban living.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_countries_by_percentage_of_urban_population
The point is not about what percentage of the population is urbanised, it's about total population and how those urban areas are structured. From Liverpool to Leeds and down to Sheffield (and beyond) is not far off being a continuous conurbation with a few thin strips of green along the way. Consider the difference in edge effects when trying to control the spread through restricting movement.
Handy link (not Guardian, soz) here if you're not sure what I mean:
https://www.google.com/maps
Very romantic Will but Sweden has a slightly higher percentage of urban living.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_countries_by_percentage_of_urban_population
The point is not about what percentage of the population is urbanised, it's about total population and how those urban areas are structured. From Liverpool to Leeds and down to Sheffield (and beyond) is not far off being a continuous conurbation with a few thin strips of green along the way. Consider the difference in edge effects when trying to control the spread through restricting movement.
Also don't forget the national mindset is VERY different. We were there in the summer and asked a few people about it, and observed general behaviour. It seemed to us that Sweden was like a child who's been brought up to be conscientious and cautious, and that looking out for ones family and neighbours was just part of the psyche. With the parents away, the kids would maybe have a small fire in a safe fire pit in the woods and cook hot dogs on a stick. Going home early and taking all their rubbish home, and probably recycling it...
The UK on the other hand is like a repressed teenager, desperate to have a wild house party as soon as the parents are are.
They didn't need told what to do....
(massive oversimplification and overgeneralisation, but I think there's a shred of truth in it.
Also don't forget the national mindset is VERY different. We were there in the summer and asked a few people about it, and observed general behaviour. It seemed to us that Sweden was like a child who's been brought up to be conscientious and cautious, and that looking out for ones family and neighbours was just part of the psyche. With the parents away, the kids would maybe have a small fire in a safe fire pit in the woods and cook hot dogs on a stick. Going home early and taking all their rubbish home, and probably recycling it...
The UK on the other hand is like a repressed teenager, desperate to have a wild house party as soon as the parents are are.
They didn't need told what to do....
(massive oversimplification and overgeneralisation, but I think there's a shred of truth in it.
This has very worrying implications for the UK (thanks for the link due to minimike on the other channel).
https://twitter.com/twenseleers/status/1466501989500653568?s=21
This has very worrying implications for the UK (thanks for the link due to minimike on the other channel).
https://twitter.com/twenseleers/status/1466501989500653568?s=21
The one consolatory element I can pick out: that's looking at potential immune escape when it comes to infection, and all the info we have suggests that even when the vaccines don't prevent infection, they can still offer substantial protection against severe illness. They don't "fail" all at once.
(And that's assuming that vaccine-produced immunity and immunity from infection with a previous variant perform the same; I have seen some speculation that vaccine-produced immunity might perform better when it comes to a heavily-mutated variant like this, but I don't have the background to evaluate how plausible or likely that is: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1466493406704807941 ).
Obviously it's still bad news because, as I repeat ad nauseam to people, a small percentage of a very very big number is still a big number. Even if only a small percentage of people with breakthrough infections get severely ill -- if you have enough breakthrough infections, that's a big number.
There are a lot of key things about Omicron that we don't know right now, but are going to be finding out very fast.
Another factor into the mix, that I don't see discussed much anywhere, is the levels of statutory sick pay available to people required to isolate. In Sweden it is 80% of full pay by law with many companies offering more than this.
The level of statutory sick pay in the UK is insulting and I am sure leaves many already low paid workers, struggling to get by, less inclined to get tested if they are sick but able to function.
Another reflection of the very differing attitude of ruling classes here where profit overrides welfare. Likely to be a false economy but we seem to be unable to think that far ahead.
So out of interest, in terms of what you want to happen based on the data you look at, you'd be in favour of an immediate lockdown, return to furlough etc?
I think its fairly likely that we'll see a wave this winter but I'm unconvinced it is politically possible to lockdown again for numerous reasons, so the more likely outcome is muddling through. Not least because if the variant is as bad as you suggest, we won't be able to stop it spreading anyway, even in a lockdown.
A Scandinavian city does not look like or function like a continental city, except for the most deprived areas of said Scandinavian city. IMHO, of course.
Where do people mix though?
So out of interest, in terms of what you want to happen based on the data you look at, you'd be in favour of an immediate lockdown, return to furlough etc?
I think its fairly likely that we'll see a wave this winter but I'm unconvinced it is politically possible to lockdown again for numerous reasons, so the more likely outcome is muddling through. Not least because if the variant is as bad as you suggest, we won't be able to stop it spreading anyway, even in a lockdown.
You haven't answered this.. (pointless answering with hypotheticals about an underfunded health service). What exactly would you do now if you were UK king, with what the UK has.
John Burn-Murdoch from the FT with the latest on Omicron in SA.
https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1468310548609744904
But that's massively less painful than a single 24 hours in which I'm prohibited from using indoor sports facilities to either do the life-affirming fitness activity I love the most,
I struggle to understand your general point's relevance to this specific.My point was basically this:
the possible range is still hugeand was in response to the final part of the article
"You can get everything from no wave, to a wave there's no need to worry about, to doomsday; that's the problem there is massive uncertainty," he said.
I struggle to understand your general point's relevance to this specific.My point was basically this:the possible range is still hugeand was in response to the final part of the articleQuote"You can get everything from no wave, to a wave there's no need to worry about, to doomsday; that's the problem there is massive uncertainty," he said.
It makes me feel better about times when the gap between my "low" and "high" scenarios is enormous.
So those of us who got AZ initially may be in a pretty nice position -- if we get that booster (got mine on Thurs).
Looks like various places are being pragmatic and vaccinating under-40s as soon as they've got capacity:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/gps-offer-covid-boosters-to-under-40s-against-nhs-guidance
https://www.reddit.com/r/GetJabbed/
Are all boosters Pfizer? For somebody who has had two doses of Pfizer is there any sense in seeking out a Moderna booster to improve protection?
I haven't been invited yet but see that there is a walk-in doing Pfizer boosters in Bradford today.
Boosters are supposedly for over 40s so all are supposed to be Pfizer or Moderna (https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/coronavirus-booster-vaccine/). They are both mRNA vaccines and work in a similar fashion so [theorising] it should make little difference which one you have [/theorising].
My booster was Pfizer.
Are all boosters Pfizer? For somebody who has had two doses of Pfizer is there any sense in seeking out a Moderna booster to improve protection?
I haven't been invited yet but see that there is a walk-in doing Pfizer boosters in Bradford today.
So those of us who got AZ initially may be in a pretty nice position -- if we get that booster (got mine on Thurs).
Looks like various places are being pragmatic and vaccinating under-40s as soon as they've got capacity:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/gps-offer-covid-boosters-to-under-40s-against-nhs-guidance
https://www.reddit.com/r/GetJabbed/
Everyone I know here (Northants) in their 30s is now boosted. All invited by our GPs, I don't think under 40s can book without an invite yet. Colleagues in their 40s and 50s were all boosted weeks ago.
Meanwhile, I know 65+year olds in Derbyshire who aren't boosted yet and not for lack of trying.
The postcode lottery seems even more extreme than for 1st/2nd doses.
Are all boosters Pfizer? For somebody who has had two doses of Pfizer is there any sense in seeking out a Moderna booster to improve protection?
I haven't been invited yet but see that there is a walk-in doing Pfizer boosters in Bradford today.
I've had double pfizer & covid. I guess I won't get a booster for a while now?
Any stats on the protection this scenario provides?
I thought current guidance was under 16s only got one jab?
I thought current guidance was under 16s only got one jab?
YYFY super immune.
What's the difference between 3rd dose and booster? My email talks about needing a referral letter for 3rd dose for people with severely weakened immune system. Doesn't mention boosters.
Are all boosters Pfizer? For somebody who has had two doses of Pfizer is there any sense in seeking out a Moderna booster to improve protection?
I haven't been invited yet but see that there is a walk-in doing Pfizer boosters in Bradford today.
If I'm reading https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02717-3/fulltext correctly (someone check in case I'm not), people who've had two Pfizers might get an even higher antibody response with Moderna rather than a third Pfizer, though you may also get whapped harder with side-effects.
However, three doses of any mRNA vax performs very strongly, so personally I wouldn't delay getting boosted in order to get a particular one.
Exponential growth mixed with small-%-of-a-big-number-is-still-a-big-number mixed with uncertainty about what exactly Omicron will do to the projections, I believe.
Plus Omicron's immune escape capacity -- it's REALLY good at infecting vaccinated (or previously-infected) people.
Even if breakthrough infections are relatively milder (which is what we're crossing fingers for, based on the early reports from South Africa), it means vaccinated people don't serve as a "firewall" to stop it moving through the population.
Exponential growth mixed with small-%-of-a-big-number-is-still-a-big-number mixed with uncertainty about what exactly Omicron will do to the projections, I believe.
Plus Omicron's immune escape capacity -- it's REALLY good at infecting vaccinated (or previously-infected) people.
Even if breakthrough infections are relatively milder (which is what we're crossing fingers for, based on the early reports from South Africa), it means vaccinated people don't serve as a "firewall" to stop it moving through the population.
And it makes Delta look slow-moving.
Slabs, I don't doubt the thrust of what you're saying and I'm absolutely sure that you've done loads more reading about this (I know this because I have done almost precisely none), but I'm not sure that speaking in absolute terms is helpful.
Looking at this through the eyes of somebody who is weary of the whole thing by now and would quite like to crack on as normal:Plus Omicron's immune escape capacity -- it's REALLY good at infecting vaccinated (or previously-infected) people.
Even if breakthrough infections are relatively milder (which is what we're crossing fingers for, based on the early reports from South Africa), it means vaccinated people don't serve as a "firewall" to stop it moving through the population.
It might seem like there's no point in getting a booster at all. Wouldn't it be truer to say the vaccine is not as good at preventing transmission of Omicron but it still has some effect and it's the best chance we've got of reducing R without having restrictions on social contact. Not to mention that, although there is some cause to be optimistic about the severity of illness from Omicron, there's still a chance that it'll fuck you or your gran up so best to give yourself the best protection available.
Exponential growth mixed with small-%-of-a-big-number-is-still-a-big-number mixed with uncertainty about what exactly Omicron will do to the projections, I believe.
Plus Omicron's immune escape capacity -- it's REALLY good at infecting vaccinated (or previously-infected) people.
Even if breakthrough infections are relatively milder (which is what we're crossing fingers for, based on the early reports from South Africa), it means vaccinated people don't serve as a "firewall" to stop it moving through the population.
And it makes Delta look slow-moving.
Ok, I won't be rushing for a vaccination then (recent covid antibodies so other variants still in circulation aren't a concern). Seems the best precaution for me is to be diligent about hygiene and take a LFT before social interactions.
Evidence is showing that a booster dose does wonders at kicking protection way back up again. Omicron can get past two doses worryingly well, but three block it (about as well as two doses do with Delta).
The data on that is REALLY POSITIVE and a huge relief. At three doses, it is as good at blocking the virus as before.
Omicron can get past two doses worryingly well, but three block it (about as well as two doses do with Delta).
Daily deaths have been at about the same level since August so why all the recent fuss? I see there's another new variant (isn't there always?), but why are restrictions suddenly coming back now?
(In fact, those of us who had AZ get an upgrade to our protection, because we get in on that funky mix-and-match action.)
The reason why some restrictions are coming back feels to me to be 50% Omicron caution and 50% PM wanting to distract from the office party story
Daily deaths have been at about the same level since August so why all the recent fuss? I see there's another new variant (isn't there always?), but why are restrictions suddenly coming back now?
Exactly. People need to get a bloody grip.
(In fact, those of us who had AZ get an upgrade to our protection, because we get in on that funky mix-and-match action.)
Does this work for other types too?. I.e. as someone who had two Pfizer doses, given the choice, should I get a Moderna booster?
Thanks for that. This:Evidence is showing that a booster dose does wonders at kicking protection way back up again. Omicron can get past two doses worryingly well, but three block it (about as well as two doses do with Delta).
The data on that is REALLY POSITIVE and a huge relief. At three doses, it is as good at blocking the virus as before.
is a huge difference to how I was thinking about this before. I'd understood it to be that Omicron was still very good at evading boosters but, meh, it's the best chance you've got. Thanks for the info.
I find myself now very pro booster because I'd really like to keep using 36Chambers' board and going out to look at wet boulders.
This is a little bit like using that as an argument back in mid March 2020 ("we're not fucked yet and might not be so let's just do nothing"). It might be right... or it might be pretty wrong... a little bit of caution (e.g. masks and WFH) seems a minor imposition and might push things out a bit until most people are boosted, at which point it looks like we're back to about where we were on protection levels (but maybe with higher case numbers so still a bit more overloaded on the NHS)
Daily deaths have been at about the same level since August so why all the recent fuss? I see there's another new variant (isn't there always?), but why are restrictions suddenly coming back now?
I was trying to be optimistic for Adam's sake ;)
yes ill get the booster (but not in a massive blind panic like most seem to be doing
yes ill get the booster (but not in a massive blind panic like most seem to be doing
Think it through, Adam. I'm going to get mine tomorrow not because I'm panicking, but because the booster program only stands a chance of doing its job if it happens before the health service hits the skids and/or Christmas is cancelled.
Christmas is cancelled.
Incidentally, do we know why is this the case:QuoteOmicron can get past two doses worryingly well, but three block it (about as well as two doses do with Delta).
I'd assumed that vaccine effectiveness followed an exponentially relaxing curve, with more doses improving protection but at a decreasing rate. Unless the 2-dose-bad 3-dose-good thing is an artefact of the timing of when vaccines were given (i.e. if you've had two doses its likely that your 2nd dose is now a bit old and "wearing off") then why is there such a step change between 2 and 3 doses?
Christmas is cancelled.
This is an interesting side note, but I'm willing to bet very very few people will be cancelling their christmas this year whatever the government say. Nothing particularly to do with their views on Tory xmas parties or whatever, just out of a general 'fuck that, I'm not missing it again.'
I just feel like this is going to go on for years, mutation after mutation, and more and more bullshit coming out of the government. Jab after jab.Booster after booster. Yes I have had all my jabs and yes ill get the booster (but not in a massive blind panic like most seem to be doing) but like most I am sure people are wondering if the end game will ever be in sight.
This is an interesting side note, but I'm willing to bet very very few people will be cancelling their christmas this year whatever the government say. Nothing particularly to do with their views on Tory xmas parties or whatever, just out of a general 'fuck that, I'm not missing it again.'
I just feel like this is going to go on for years, mutation after mutation, and more and more bullshit coming out of the government. Jab after jab.Booster after booster. Yes I have had all my jabs and yes ill get the booster (but not in a massive blind panic like most seem to be doing) but like most I am sure people are wondering if the end game will ever be in sight.
Oh, I don't disagree with that, I was just meaning that deaths not having gone up just yet isn't necessarily a great metric for deciding what the gov should do or whether to run around shouting
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/13AE0/production/_101980608_mediaitem101980605.jpg)
My optimistic end-game scenario - omicron or some future variant is indeed less severe, and combined with occasional jabs and bits and bobs of immunity from infection it just ends up like a bad cold/flu... but there might be some more "kerfuffle" first... I'm happy to WFH and get boosted ASAP if it reduces chances of Jan lockdown and not getting to go to Spain in spring. (p.s. bet EU says 3rd jab needed for "full vaccination" sometime soon so worth having it just to get that in the bag if nothing else!)
Daily deaths have been at about the same level since August so why all the recent fuss? I see there's another new variant (isn't there always?), but why are restrictions suddenly coming back now?
Exactly. People need to get a bloody grip.
This is a little bit like using that as an argument back in mid March 2020 ("we're not fucked yet and might not be so let's just do nothing"). It might be right... or it might be pretty wrong... a little bit of caution (e.g. masks and WFH) seems a minor imposition and might push things out a bit until most people are boosted, at which point it looks like we're back to about where we were on protection levels (but maybe with higher case numbers so still a bit more overloaded on the NHS)
Anybody else come across this? Is it just Exeter?
The same argument was used when Delta came around (this was the summer one right?), but restrictions weren't introduced and the health service didn't collapse. I wondered why the different approach for Omicron now, which has been answered (vaccine resistance).
yes ill get the booster (but not in a massive blind panic like most seem to be doing
Think it through, Adam. I'm going to get mine tomorrow not because I'm panicking, but because the booster program only stands a chance of doing its job if it happens before the health service hits the skids and/or Christmas is cancelled.
Yeah I get that, but people are queuing all night outside in the cold at a walk in vax place near me. :shrug: Like its the end of the world if they don't get it that day.
I could believe, and do suspect, that “they” already have an insight into the likely impact of Omicron and are slowly dripping out the bad news.I don't think this is the case. I don't think they know any more than a reasonably informed Twitter user with some understanding of statistics.
I could believe, and do suspect, that “they” already have an insight into the likely impact of Omicron and are slowly dripping out the bad news.I don't think this is the case. I don't think they know any more than a reasonably informed Twitter user with some understanding of statistics.
Figures from South Africa, Botswana etc have to be taken with a huge pinch of salt due to their different demographics, healthcare access, testing capabilities, and vaccine status.
Nowhere else is far enough along with Omicron to make judgements on the likely severity in a highly vaccinated population.
Much of the early reasoning in the press for anticipating Omicron being less severe can be ruled out as being journalists having a poor grasp of statistics. But we can't yet say whether it will be more or less severe so any attempt to quantify how bad it will be on healthcare would just be a stab in the dark. Assuming a similar severity to Delta seems to be a reasonable starting point for predictions/planning restrictions but the confidence intervals are very wide.
Everyone is crossing their fingers and waiting for more data.
We have no idea on severity yet, obviously,Absolutely nothing personal (actually reliably impressed with your input here and on ukc) but I'm getting increasingly triggered by the above 'we have no idea about x yet' sentiment. It's as though no scientist or amateur covid analyser has ever heard of Bayes' theorem!
Only my n=1, but I had COVID a couple of weeks ago.
Double-jabbed, I'm 43, fit(ish), GSOH etc etc.
No idea if I got an early taste of Omicron or what but blimey it knocked me sideways.
Like flu x 10 in terms of body aches. Mrs TTT had to take me for a PCR (I tested positive on a lateral flow on the Tuesday after waking up feeling like I'd downed 10 pints the night before), and every time the car hit a bump I was virtually in tears.
That went on for about 4 days, coupled with terrible awake-till-5am insomnia, horrible feverish sleep when I could, bad stomach, and of course total loss of taste and smell. Paracetamol etc didn't touch it at all.
Took about a week to even think about getting out of bed, and for all of last week (i.e the week post-self-isolation) I was wrecked. Bringing the Xmas tree out of the car into the house left me light-headed and needing a lie down, and a few hours of early Zoom meetings one day led to me needing to go for an hour's kip at 10am!
In contrast, daughter (7), who I assume gave it to me had a sniffle for a few days and that was it, and when Mrs TTT had it back in Sept she felt "a bit crap and tired" for 2 days, and then was completely normal for the rest of her self-isolation.
Only my n=1, but I had COVID a couple of weeks ago.
Double-jabbed, I'm 43, fit(ish), GSOH etc etc.
No idea if I got an early taste of Omicron or what but blimey it knocked me sideways...
Ooof, that sounds brutal. I hope you can take it easy until you're fully recovered; in my experience with viruses, it's easy to rush back into doing stuff too fast and dig yourself into a hole of post-viral fatigue.
I got my booster today (Moderna on top of 2No. Pfizers).
I had an appointment booked but it seems to be a single queue for walk-ins and appointments. It's moving very quickly so shouldn't be more than 10 minutes waiting. I keep looking over my shoulder to check I don't get seen by Adam now I'm an official panic booster.
Assuming the "wait 4 weeks after you've had COVID" guidance is still in place, earliest I'd be eligible is (I think) next Weds. In two minds about rushing to get it done as a) I'd rather not scupper Xmas with potential side effects, b) I'm guessing I'm full to the hat-band with antibodies anyway, and c) I have a booking for 6th Jan anyway.
likewise, after feeling rough after fist AZ and fine after the second, Pfizer booster had no noticeable side effects (except the sore arm). You must be right about the antibodies though, glad you're starting to feel better dude, you've had a shit run of it!
likewise, after feeling rough after fist AZ and fine after the second, Pfizer booster had no noticeable side effects (except the sore arm). You must be right about the antibodies though, glad you're starting to feel better dude, you've had a shit run of it!
Had almost zero with the first two AZ, Pf booster felt fine for 12 hours then woke up in night with sweats and heart pounding, really rough for 24 hrs, fine after 48. Have spoken to a few with similar.
Congrats to everyone who's just been boosted; may your immune response be robust and your side-effects mild!Tried to crack one off to those diagrams, still not sexy enough. Could only get to half-mast. Had to dig out the Allegra Stratton video to finish the job :blink:
For you 3-dose mRNA people, enjoy these sexy sexy diagrams
Assuming the "wait 4 weeks after you've had COVID" guidance is still in place, earliest I'd be eligible is (I think) next Weds. In two minds about rushing to get it done as a) I'd rather not scupper Xmas with potential side effects, b) I'm guessing I'm full to the hat-band with antibodies anyway, and c) I have a booking for 6th Jan anyway.
Yeah, I don't know if anyone's got info or advice on optimal timing of boosters in people who are already "super-immune".
Effectively, getting Covid already functioned as a kind of "third dose" for you, and we know super-immunity holds up pretty strongly against Omicron:
https://twitter.com/JanineKimpel/status/1468700628922904591
Based on the Balazs Lab stuff, looks like you could potentially gain even more immunity by getting a booster at some point, but you're going to be in a decent position right now.
Congrats to everyone who's just been boosted; may your immune response be robust and your side-effects mild!
For you 3-dose mRNA people, enjoy these sexy sexy diagrams of how good your immunity against Omicron will be (given a week or two to kick in) -- new study just out using pseudovirus neutralization assays:
Moderna: https://twitter.com/BalazsLab/status/1470727025312686080
Pfizer: https://twitter.com/BalazsLab/status/1470727030165544969
A recent booster even beats "super-immunity" from "distant" (6-12 months ago) vaccination plus infection, which is exciting because that's still extremely strong.
Also, very interesting: https://twitter.com/BalazsLab/status/1470727055088099328
Overall, our findings suggest that boosting is doing a lot more than simply increasing your titers. It seems to be broadening the antibody response to be better equipped to recognize diverse variants. Hopefully it will still work against whatever variant comes next!
It'd be interesting to be able to find out one's current level of immunity to omicron, as virtually everyone will now have some level of antibodies. Could start a UKB thread on who has the best antibody levels..
Is there a test available for home use that shows a person's level of covid antibodies? I know there's the antibody test available via NHS but his appears to give a binary yes/no to having had previous covid infection (hence having antibodies).
Assuming the "wait 4 weeks after you've had COVID" guidance is still in place, earliest I'd be eligible is (I think) next Weds. In two minds about rushing to get it done as a) I'd rather not scupper Xmas with potential side effects, b) I'm guessing I'm full to the hat-band with antibodies anyway, and c) I have a booking for 6th Jan anyway.
Yeah, I don't know if anyone's got info or advice on optimal timing of boosters in people who are already "super-immune".
Effectively, getting Covid already functioned as a kind of "third dose" for you, and we know super-immunity holds up pretty strongly against Omicron:
https://twitter.com/JanineKimpel/status/1468700628922904591
Based on the Balazs Lab stuff, looks like you could potentially gain even more immunity by getting a booster at some point, but you're going to be in a decent position right now.
What's more Super-Immune than Super-Immune? Ultra-Immune?
Having had the AZ for jabs 1 and 2 I reckon if they give me a different one for the Booster I could end up being able to fly, see into the future or something as well as being COVID-resistant.
Glued peg?
What actually happens if you have a booster on top of recent covid? I've seen the advice saying you shouldn't, but I don't know why - worse reaction, less effective, etc?
I sort of assume a reasonable amount of covid still goes undiagnosed, so presumably people do it without knowing, so I presume it isn't dangerous otherwise you'd have to have something more robust than the absence of testing positive. But I don't know what it is that drives the rule in the first place.
Congrats to everyone who's just been boosted; may your immune response be robust and your side-effects mild!Tried to crack one off to those diagrams, still not sexy enough. Could only get to half-mast. Had to dig out the Allegra Stratton video to finish the job :blink:
For you 3-dose mRNA people, enjoy these sexy sexy diagrams
P.S.
AZ1 - Mildly warm, mildly sore head overnight (wouldn't have noticed but digestion woke me up), slightly tired 1 day.
AZ2 - Nothing
PFZ - Very slightly tired 1 day
HTH.
What actually happens if you have a booster on top of recent covid? I've seen the advice saying you shouldn't, but I don't know why - worse reaction, less effective, etc?
I sort of assume a reasonable amount of covid still goes undiagnosed, so presumably people do it without knowing, so I presume it isn't dangerous otherwise you'd have to have something more robust than the absence of testing positive. But I don't know what it is that drives the rule in the first place.
My theory is that climbing has toughened my finger tips up too much.It definitely does, the occupational health nurse at work was trying do a a finger prick blood cholesterol test on me and the needle just bounced off. She ended up pricking the side of my finger to get a drop of blood out. It wouldn't have been enough for the covid-antibody test though, my wife was in that study and we were shocked at the size of the vial that had to be filled! Her test came back negative despite definitely being exposed a few months earlier when one of our kids had Covid.
Also, because I'm saying this to everyone I know: I strongly rec upping your masks to FFP2/n95 or something equivalent.
If you're not keen on wastage from disposables, buy a pack of five or ten, number them, use them in order, hang them up somewhere well-ventilated to air-dry when not in use, and you can probably get about 5 uses out of each -- Covid doesn't survive more than a day on surfaces.
https://www.boots.com/boots-protective-ffp2-nr-face-masks-5s-10292473
Think ffp2 actually give decent protection to the wearer as well.
What level of improvement in protection of self or others makes ffp2 worth it is obviously a personal choice
Think ffp2 actually give decent protection to the wearer as well.
What level of improvement in protection of self or others makes ffp2 worth it is obviously a personal choice
For 5 quid a mask I'd like them to do my shopping for me as well!
Do you have a link?
I'll buy 500, sell them on ebay for £2 per mask and undercut boots :P
Do you have a link?
I'll buy 500, sell them on ebay for £2 per mask and undercut boots :P
Do you have a link?
I'll buy 500, sell them on ebay for £2 per mask and undercut boots :P
Boots are already selling them for £2 -- that's a 5-pack! Still plenty of room to undercut them, though. I linked to Boots as a reference just because they're obvious and reputable and there is fake stuff floating around, but yeah, shop around and you can definitely get them cheaper.
If they were considered necessary wouldn't the WHO recommend them for public use?
If they were considered necessary wouldn't the WHO recommend them for public use?
I think you lack sufficient cynicism ... Remember, back in the beginning, they weren't doing this because there was a massive shortage of medical-grade PPE. So the rec was to leave it for the medical professionals, who were most at risk, and for the general public to use cloth masks instead (they're better than nothing, and I believe the good ones can get near surgical mask levels).
Some European states went to requiring medical grade masks for everyone earlier this year: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/01/26/960893423/some-european-countries-move-to-require-medical-grade-masks-in-public
Hence why I'm wondering why bother with FFP2 if surgical masks are almost as good
Which is why some countries (like Germany) are specifying FFP2, not just "medical grade".
You might feel they're not worth the extra cost or hassle or whatever, or that it's overkill, but the difference in specs is significant.
To those more knowledgeable than me.. do these look good? Thanks.
https://www.siteking.co.uk/kn95-face-masks
Okay, I stand corrected; the article says that Bavaria and Austria have specified FFP2, whereas Germany as a whole is only insisting on "medical grade".
The problem I have with surgical masks is that I can never get a really tight seal around my face, whereas the FFP2 masks I've worn give a tight fit so I am much more confident that all the air is being pulled and pushed through the mask which should obviously increases safety. When I had a brief look at masks near the start of all this, some literature seemed to look at the qualities of the mask material and concluded no significant difference in performance between surgical and FFP2 for coronavirus, but gave the caveat of saying so long as face fit is equal. Therefore, I concluded that FFP2 would be better for me and likely many others.
]
Pf booster felt fine for 12 hours then woke up in night with sweats and heart pounding, really rough for 24 hrs, fine after 48. Have spoken to a few with similar.
So, various options for upping one's game, should one wish. But "buy a pack of FFP2s" is a pretty simple one.
Do they carry the EN 149:2001 and. CE marking?
I’m down to 55% functionality after a Moderna booster ( 2 x Pf previously).
I’m down to 55% functionality after a Moderna booster ( 2 x Pf previously).
Word. Both me and Mrs got the Moderna booster on Friday. Saturday was just about manageable with a steady stream of paracetamol, Sunday still not 100%.
I was team AZ, she's Pfizer, both also had Covid in August - wonder if it's the latter that made the booster so brutal?
I’m down to 55% functionality after a Moderna booster ( 2 x Pf previously).
Word. Both me and Mrs got the Moderna booster on Friday. Saturday was just about manageable with a steady stream of paracetamol, Sunday still not 100%.
I was team AZ, she's Pfizer, both also had Covid in August - wonder if it's the latter that made the booster so brutal?
I had Pfizer previously and a Moderna booster on Friday. Felt grim on Saturday, achey body and bad headache, certainly worse than the original two shots. Just about managed to climb on Sunday evening and feel normal today (well, my arm still aches if I prod it). Not had covid as far as I'm aware.
I’m down to 55% functionality after a Moderna booster ( 2 x Pf previously).
Word. Both me and Mrs got the Moderna booster on Friday. Saturday was just about manageable with a steady stream of paracetamol, Sunday still not 100%.
I was team AZ, she's Pfizer, both also had Covid in August - wonder if it's the latter that made the booster so brutal?
Modellers have not included data from South Africa suggesting the Omicron variant is milder than previous strains of Covid-19, according to Graham Medley, chair of SAGE’s modelling committee and professor infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LHST).
In a Twitter exchange with The Spectator editor Fraser Nelson, Medley explained that best-case scenarios where Omicron is less lethal than the Delta variant are unnecessary.
He said modellers have been told to establish data to inform governments in case of more severe outcomes.
He said “decision-makers are only interested in scenarios where decisions have to be made” and that modellers “model what we are asked to model” by lawmakers.
This follows LHSTM publishing modelling last week calling for more restrictions.
Nelson contrasted this outlook with an investor note from JP Morgan pointing out if the Omicron variant adjusted in line with data from South Africa – bed occupancy from Covid-19 patients at the end of January would be a third of the peak seen in January 2021, which would be manageable without further restrictions this winter.
When questioned about its lack of inclusion in current UK models, Medley tweeted: “What would be the point of that?”
He argued best-case scenarios “do not inform anything.”
Interesting post Pete. I'm sure Offwidth and Nigel will be tripping over each other in the race to reply to it.
The 'we see no evidence' fallacy is rearing its head with this omicron wave then...
As it emerges (if it wasn't already apparent!) that much of the rationale for increased restrictions and lockdowns originates in two factors:
1. A sentence in the Imperial report #49 (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2021-12-16-COVID19-Report-49.pdf) that says 'we find no evidence for omicron having different severity to Delta..'
2. The modelling of worst case scenarios by Imperial. It doesn't take a mathematician to work out why that modelling therefore shows high cases leading to high hospitalisations and deaths.
The models on which the worst case scenarios are based and which are being used for justifying tighter restrictions:Don't use the available data from South Africa's real-world experience of Omicron in a population - which show Omicron doesn't have the same severity of outcome as Delta.
No evidence of different severity to Delta? Really??? How pedantic do people want to be, and for what reason. I can't comprehend why modellers tasked by government wouldn't include available real-world evidence of omicron in a population that shows it doesn't have the same severity of outcome as Delta. Maybe at the time they didn't have much information from South Africa? They do now, and could change the inputs.
https://www.cityam.com/modellers-exclude-south-africa-data-indicating-omicron-is-milder-than-delta-variant-reveals-sage-expert/QuoteModellers have not included data from South Africa suggesting the Omicron variant is milder than previous strains of Covid-19, according to Graham Medley, chair of SAGE’s modelling committee and professor infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LHST).
In a Twitter exchange with The Spectator editor Fraser Nelson, Medley explained that best-case scenarios where Omicron is less lethal than the Delta variant are unnecessary.
He said modellers have been told to establish data to inform governments in case of more severe outcomes.
He said “decision-makers are only interested in scenarios where decisions have to be made” and that modellers “model what we are asked to model” by lawmakers.
This follows LHSTM publishing modelling last week calling for more restrictions.
Nelson contrasted this outlook with an investor note from JP Morgan pointing out if the Omicron variant adjusted in line with data from South Africa – bed occupancy from Covid-19 patients at the end of January would be a third of the peak seen in January 2021, which would be manageable without further restrictions this winter.
When questioned about its lack of inclusion in current UK models, Medley tweeted: “What would be the point of that?”
He argued best-case scenarios “do not inform anything.”
Here's that excellent piece again on why using ''we see no evidence for/against'' is useless for communicating (or a very useful rhetorical tool..): https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-phrase-no-evidence-is-a-red-flag
South Africa's experience so far doesn't give cause to be especially fearful of this omicron wave:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/s-africa-says-hospitalizations-in-omicron-wave-much-lower
https://www.ft.com/content/c366d311-e8ac-488d-9907-4ddb81a9bcd0
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/12/17/1065315661/omicron-may-be-less-severe-in-south-africa-that-may-not-be-the-case-for-the-u-s
- 1.7% of cases resulting in hospitalisation in the second week of the Omicron wave, versus 19% of cases ending up in hospital in the same week of the previous wave for Delta.
- 90% of hospitalised are unvaccinated.
- Highly transmissive. 20,000 case per day in this wave compared to 4,400 cases per day in same week of Delta wave.
- Capacity within healthcare to take routine patients, so as a result many cases of recorded infections are caught while in hospital (where testing is carried out daily) and so are captured within category of 'hospitalised'. But not hospitalised 'due to covid'.
- Cases rose fast and are falling fast.
- Southern hemisphere summer doesn't account for the lower severity of outcome, previous waves also occurred in summer and had worse outcomes than this wave.
It seems the public are now in a moral panic about the NHS, cases, hospitalisations. The media is spreading a mass delusion.
Given SA's experience I'm trying to understand the thought process in media and government. Is it really the thinking that S.A.'s increased sun exposure and its population being on average 13 years younger - the difference in median population age between SA and UK - somehow changes the outcome of Omicron from the mild outcomes experienced there, into a highly virulent virus that according to worst-case modelling is going to cause the UK huge numbers of severe illness that cripples the health service and causes a huge numbers of deaths?
That doesn't appear to be plausible. Unless omicron has mutated into a strain that can selectively target by nationality.
The rhetoric of fear going on around this omicron wave smells strongly of bullshit. It appears that the modellers have been incentivised to paint the worst case picture and this has been run with by virtually the whole media because it's by far the best bad-news story going. I don't know the incentive to panic the population by briefing a narrow picture of the severity of this wave - cover up partygate? Ultra cautious precautionary principle after poorly handling previous waves? Pressurise vaccine compliance in the population? Make the government appear they took action and controlled the omicron wave? Cover up the news, or compound the impact of the slow-to-emerge news, that the commons select committee heard evidence on Wednesday last week (https://committees.parliament.uk/event/6626/formal-meeting-oral-evidence-session/) that a human-engineered virus and lab leak theory is now considered the most likely origin of covid. (notable that this didn't make the BBC or most of the other main media outlets)?
Alternative theory:
Elsewhere, this wave is giving mild outcomes with much lower impact on healthcare than Delta, even considering its far higher speed of transmission. This in a population which, according to another recent Imperial study(...), has much less robust immunity (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/12/15/which-countries-are-best-protected-against-omicron) to omicron than the UK. Reasons for lower impact are unclear but whatever the reasons, it's realistic to forecast Omicron causing not anywhere near the numbers of hospitalisations or deaths as the Delta wave.
If something doesn't change, then due to this moral panic around cases the NHS is going to go short of staff due to people told to isolate with what amounts to a mild cold. This will cause massive self-inflicted damage on these organisations, leading to short-sighted people calling for further restrictions to protect the NHS. Ad infinitum.
In the slightly longer term (i.e. January onward) manufacturing supply chains, production and transport are also about to suffer massive numbers of people told to isolate with what amounts to a mild cold. The worst global stagflation in over a century risks being the result.
I can't comprehend why modellers tasked by government wouldn't include available real-world evidence of omicron in a population that shows it doesn't have the same severity of outcome as Delta. Maybe at the time they didn't have much information from South Africa? They do now, and could change the inputs.
The 'we see no evidence' fallacy is rearing its head with this omicron wave then...I'm not sure it makes sense to class it as a "fallacy", rather than a mediocre way of communicating with the general public, especially the less well educated/less thoughtful.
'we find no evidence for omicron having different severity to Delta..'It's not clear to me from a skim how they did their analysis, but from what I heard on R4 I was under the impression that this statement related to inherent severity of the variant, which may not necessarily correlate with impact from a public health POV. i.e. it may be the same severity, but while previous infection with delta, or 2x vaccination, isn't a good blocker against reinfection it might still alter outcomes significantly without inherent severity being different. The NPR article you linked also covers this. I may have misinterpreted what Imperial are trying to say though. It's not the clearest communication, that's for sure.
Given SA's experience I'm trying to understand the thought process in media and government.Well the vast majority of the media don't have a freakin' clue about anything to do with science, so I wouldn't worry too much about their thought process! Same is true of gov, but they have more advisers so would agree/argue that decisions are more likely to be informed/nefarious.
Is it really the thinking that S.A.'s increased sun exposure and its population being on average 13 years younger - the difference in median population age between SA and UKPresumably you'd also need to include % of pop with other comorbidities. I don't know whether this would significantly impact the model (I assume it's built into the proper ones?) but it makes thought experiments/back-of-envelope harder.
One possible concern might be non-isolating covid+ve NHS staff transmitting Omicron to vulnerable people (as patients often are)??Ripe for lawsuits if nothing else I'd expect.
Because [...] the ease of studying how Omicron causes the worst-case impacts [...] is obviously so [...] easy to study
As in it's easier to say your route is between 8c+ and 9b, as opposed to saying it's most likely 9a.
An aside perhaps, but setting high/low boundaries when forecasting./modelling is indeed often much easier than setting a most likely case!
As in it's easier to say your route is between 8c+ and 9b, as opposed to saying it's most likely 9a.
An aside perhaps, but setting high/low boundaries when forecasting./modelling is indeed often much easier than setting a most likely case!
Interesting post Pete. I'm sure Offwidth and Nigel will be tripping over each other in the race to reply to it.
One possible concern might be non-isolating covid+ve NHS staff transmitting Omicron to vulnerable people (as patients often are)??
South Africa's experience so far doesn't give cause to be especially fearful of this omicron wave:
- 1.7% of cases resulting in hospitalisation in the second week of the Omicron wave, versus 19% of cases ending up in hospital in the same week of the previous wave for Delta.
- 90% of hospitalised are unvaccinated.
Because the data modelling and the ease of studying how Omicron causes the worst-case impacts (despite these outcomes never having actually happened with this variant and despite real world outcomes saying the opposite) is obviously so high-quality and easy to study that it makes the bad case scenarios the most probable outcomes, right Remus?
Probability estimates notable by their absence here.
I don't know, but I'm skeptical of Prof. Pete because I wonder whether his libertarian tendencies might influence his opinion.
The UK's biggest problem is we have been running hot on covid in the middle of a building crisis in patient throughput, and staff levels. We have very little slack for increased admissions. The good news is we have the best levels of population immunity from jabs and infections in Western Europe.
Anyone taking covid science from The Spectator has a screw loose but equally some of the more apocalyptic extrapolations doing the rounds seem impossible to me (we already have at least tens of percent of London's young adults infected so it can't double more than twice more in that age group).
I don't know, but I'm skeptical of Prof. Pete because I wonder whether his libertarian tendencies might influence his opinion.
I'm pretty skeptical too, but I don't know what I'm missing which means you can't, to all intents and purposes, compare SA and the UK given they both have high immunity, albeit from different sources.
However the impression I get is that nobody can say with certainty what the impact of omicron on the UK will be.
But the consequences of assuming its all going to be fine are a lot worse than the consequences of assuming it's all going to be OK. If both sets of data are equally unreliable, and we needs to chose which one to listen to, I know what I'd be plumping for.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472941687001522176?s=20
Looks like restrictions incoming from the 27/12.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472941687001522176?s=20
Looks like restrictions incoming from the 27/12.
PM says otherwise. No change but he's reserving the right for further restrictions etc.
What concerns me about this all of this is the PM's lack of support in his own party to implement any restrictions that may be required; with his form I'd bet on him acting in his own interests before that of the wider electorate.
(Apologies if that's what you were getting at).
(touch wood)You're already prepared for isolating on the fingerboard instead of the TCA circuits then....
Anyone taking covid science from The Spectator has a screw loose but equally some of the more apocalyptic extrapolations doing the rounds seem impossible to me (we already have at least tens of percent of London's young adults infected so it can't double more than twice more in that age group).
Thats playing the man not the ball, which you've accused me of in the past with some justification. I instinctively distrust the Spectator on almost everything but I'd be interested to know how their analysis is factually wrong. Also interesting that we agree that some of the apocalyptic modelling is ridiculous.
The UK's biggest problem is we have been running hot on covid in the middle of a building crisis in patient throughput, and staff levels. We have very little slack for increased admissions. The good news is we have the best levels of population immunity from jabs and infections in Western Europe.I agree with this, but that would seem to imply that we would be locking down because our healthcare system is shit, not because Omicron is particularly bad.
Also, surely the UK healthcare system is at least comparable to SAs, which seemed to manage ok?
It's just a general point someone aimed at pete ( he's not like that imho) and certainly nothing to do with you!?
The two aren't separable. If we lockdown because our healthcare system cannot cope with the omicron outbreak, it matters not in the short term whether we reached that point because our healthcare system is shit, because omicron is particularly bad, or because of some combination of the two. The outcome is the same.
SA coping reasonably well does not mean that the UK will. A person's prospects with covid deteriorate significantly with age. SA has 6% of its population aged over 65, the UK has 19%. The UK's covid healthcare capacity needs to be significantly better than SA's to achieve the same outcome in a comparable covid outbreak.
My guess is that our levels of vaccination plus natural immunity will give us better protection overall for the same age than SA's largely naturally acquired immunity. But that is unqualified speculation.
Cover up the news, or compound the impact of the slow-to-emerge news, that the commons select committee heard evidence on Wednesday last week (https://committees.parliament.uk/event/6626/formal-meeting-oral-evidence-session/) that a human-engineered virus and lab leak theory is now considered the most likely origin of covid. (notable that this didn't make the BBC or most of the other main media outlets)?
I'm as unqualified as the next person but I think lockdowns are a pretty blunt policy response now vaccines are available and shouldn't be seen as a normal policy measure or a tool like any other. The evidence is not clear cut like it was last christmas. Basically, I don't think a broadly restriction free society should be seen as an optional extra in the long term, and in the short term I'd rather we start getting used to what that will mean. Obviously it will have costs and it would be good for the government to be more honest about that.
so by far the most likely outcome is an annual 'muddling through,' with the NHS under huge winter pressures pretty much every year. I don't like this outcome much either but I think its preferable to annual lockdowns.
...the logical conclusion is that lockdowns will be an annual, or at least frequent, normalised policy tool to NHS pressure/new variants, just in case they overwhelm the system. I don't think this is sustainable or politically possible, whichever party is in office, so by far the most likely outcome is an annual 'muddling through,' with the NHS under huge winter pressures pretty much every year. I don't like this outcome much either but I think its preferable to annual lockdowns.
Good point. Cars are exponentially / prove-ably safer than they were c.20 years ago now, and road deaths are at an all-time low.
Based on those improvements in preventative measure and the statistics, I think I'll stop me and my family wearing seatbelts in the car, it's a bit of blunt policy in terms of keeping me and those around me safe.
I don’t think we will have many healthcare workers left if official policy is ‘suck it up’!
Your phrase ‘muddling through’ is also a very nice way of saying ‘decide who we can care for and who we need to leave to die’.
The worry in government is presumably that the NHS won't "muddle through" though. Rather that it will stop functioning. For clarity everything you say in your post makes sense and I completely agree that it is a balancing act. Absolutely no-one wants further restrictions. But we've already seen how relatively innocuous things like a lack of petrol at the pumps can really put the skids on things. Healthcare being unable to operate a functioning nationwide emergency service would be of a different order entirely. Its nice to look at the optimistic models and hope that this won't happen, but because of the lack of firm information on severity it is a gamble. Sometimes you can shrug off a loss on a gamble. On an individual level probably a lot of people can indeed cope without an emergency service for a bit. Fingers crossed it doesn't come to that anyway...
Personally, I think you have to be absolutely certain the shit is going to hit the fan before restrictions are brought back, they shouldn't just be introduced 'just in case.' Appreciate others disagree but I bet that view is becoming more and more mainstream across society, even if not on this forum!
I agree here but I guess calling when that tipping point is, with the nature of the exponential growth and not knowing the severity of a variant until you have a decent mass of it, will be very difficult.
In reply to your 'prof Pete' comment Will:
I'm not posting to try to appear clever. I don't think I'm clever. I do think I have an OK capacity for researching and absorbing lots of info, spotting patterns, and a reasonable nose for bullshit or opportunity.
Seems you aren’t and need a nappy and someone to wipe your arse and spoon feed for you.
If the data says a lockdown is needed to prevent NHS overload in the next weeks
So on the topic of lockdowns, in my opinion we are not at a point yet to call anything more than some extra restrictions
Where politics matter is the national scandal that the NHS is in such a woeful state. Those extra staff we need will take years to train so we can only look to immigration to gap fill until then. If the NHS was healthy we might have only needed light restrictions for omicron. The government foot shooting responses throughout this pandemic (vaccines aside) is costing everyone a fortune in life, health and finance. It's not stopped either.... when the NHS is in crisis you don't push 5% we desperately need from the front-line because they are unvaccinated; when any safe infection control protocol should make that irrelevant.
In reply to your 'prof Pete' comment Will:
I'm not posting to try to appear clever. I don't think I'm clever. I do think I have an OK capacity for researching and absorbing lots of info, spotting patterns, and a reasonable nose for bullshit or opportunity.
I'm afraid my bullshit detector went off when I read your post. Clearly you don't want another lockdown (who does?) but the fact that you started reaching for stuff about man-made virus escaping from a lab (could be true I suppose, but what's it got to do with whether you need a lockdown?), spreading lockdown fear to cover up partygate (this makes no sense), media conspiracy to push fear of omicron etc etc etc. I thought Dan had hacked your account.
The rhetoric of fear going on around this omicron wave smells strongly of bullshit. It appears that the modellers have been incentivised to paint the worst case picture and this has been run with by virtually the whole media because it's by far the best bad-news story going. I don't know the incentive to panic the population by briefing a narrow picture of the severity of this wave - cover up partygate? Ultra cautious precautionary principle after poorly handling previous waves? Pressurise vaccine compliance in the population? Make the government appear they took action and controlled the omicron wave? Cover up the news, or compound the impact of the slow-to-emerge news, that the commons select committee heard evidence on Wednesday last week (https://committees.parliament.uk/event/6626/formal-meeting-oral-evidence-session/) that a human-engineered virus and lab leak theory is now considered the most likely origin of covid. (notable that this didn't make the BBC or most of the other main media outlets)?
QuoteIf the data says a lockdown is needed to prevent NHS overload in the next weeks
Thats what we're discussing. I don't think the data does indisputably say that.
QuoteSo on the topic of lockdowns, in my opinion we are not at a point yet to call anything more than some extra restrictions
This is an interesting semantic point, but any restrictions which restrict people from meeting others in their own home or close pubs etc, as have been mooted in the last few days, are essentially a lockdown whatever name we give it.
I rate Paul Mainwood as well. I will pass over your reference to oversensitive middle class people, but actually saying 'noone got hurt' fundamentally ignores the harms lockdowns cause. Everyone will have personal stories of family members having their employment or income decimated by them - this obviously counts!
QuoteWhere politics matter is the national scandal that the NHS is in such a woeful state. Those extra staff we need will take years to train so we can only look to immigration to gap fill until then. If the NHS was healthy we might have only needed light restrictions for omicron. The government foot shooting responses throughout this pandemic (vaccines aside) is costing everyone a fortune in life, health and finance. It's not stopped either.... when the NHS is in crisis you don't push 5% we desperately need from the front-line because they are unvaccinated; when any safe infection control protocol should make that irrelevant.
I agree with this apart from the unvaccinated staff issue, but the fact remains that it isn't going to get solved in the short term so we need a workable strategy for that period. For me, lockdowns shouldn't be part of that strategy unless absolutely essential.
That sounds like cakeism to me. If that 5% ends up being part of the the 'camel straw' that forces lockdown are you really OK with that ....or would you prefer we do all we can to avoid lockdown?. A similar factor is also doing damage and increasing lockdown risks......stopping employment of unvaccinated care workers has added significant pressure to the care system and therefore has increased NHS bed blocking. Brexit also made staffing worse. Javid picking numerous fights with NHS management and staff has made staffing worse. Ministerial boasting about how many new doctors and nurses we have this year when even more are retiring or leaving or long term sick, hides a key recruitment problem, which also makes staffing worse.
What I see is Chris Whitty wrestling with having to give advice which he knows will directly lead to more or fewer deaths. He's got some information to do this, but it's incomplete and may be confounded by the differences between the UK and SA; he's got to give the advice at a particularly feverish time because this is coincidentally the point in the year when people all decide to socialise at the same time. He can't wait, as Jim wants him to, until the data "indisputably" points to needing a lockdown to prevent failure of the healthcare system because of the lag time between people becoming infected, falling ill, and needing hospital care. If you wait until you're 100% sure then it's already too late to do anything about it.
That sounds like cakeism to me. If that 5% ends up being part of the the 'camel straw' that forces lockdown are you really OK with that ....or would you prefer we do all we can to avoid lockdown?. A similar factor is also doing damage and increasing lockdown risks......stopping employment of unvaccinated care workers has added significant pressure to the care system and therefore has increased NHS bed blocking. Brexit also made staffing worse. Javid picking numerous fights with NHS management and staff has made staffing worse. Ministerial boasting about how many new doctors and nurses we have this year when even more are retiring or leaving or long term sick, hides a key recruitment problem, which also makes staffing worse.
You're doing your usual thing of going off on a rant about the Tories and Brexit. Ignoring all that, I agree there may be an element of wishful thinking in the short term, but can't see that it will be too much of an issue in the summer, which is when I thought it was coming into force? NHS staff are required to have the Hep B jab, this one is no different from what I can see. It will become obligatory at some point, its just a question of when. Wouldn't have a problem with it being delayed in due course but i think its right to put unvaxxed staff on notice so they can get themselves jabbed.
Should add that I think Whitty is doing an amazing job and providing the govt with all the relevant advice from a healthcare perspective. I understand that he can't personally wait for indisputable evidence before giving advice, but I do think the govt should before implementing that advice.
I think all NHS staff should be vaccinated as well but removing them if they don't get their first jab by Feb 3rd is to me akin to playing russian roulette. Infection control makes risk from the unvaccinated very small so we can wait a few more months.
The rhetoric of fear going on around this omicron wave smells strongly of bullshit. It appears that the modellers have been incentivised to paint the worst case picture and this has been run with by virtually the whole media because it's by far the best bad-news story going. I don't know the incentive to panic the population by briefing a narrow picture of the severity of this wave - cover up partygate? Ultra cautious precautionary principle after poorly handling previous waves? Pressurise vaccine compliance in the population? Make the government appear they took action and controlled the omicron wave? Cover up the news, or compound the impact of the slow-to-emerge news, that the commons select committee heard evidence on Wednesday last week (https://committees.parliament.uk/event/6626/formal-meeting-oral-evidence-session/) that a human-engineered virus and lab leak theory is now considered the most likely origin of covid. (notable that this didn't make the BBC or most of the other main media outlets)?
This is the paragraph that most triggered my bullshit-ometer, Pete, because it seems to me that you've forgotten to apply Occam's Razor. You're suggesting something conspiratorial (in which you invoke the Wuhan thing as a reason for the government/media bigging up omicron more than they ought to) and I suspect that you do that because it will lead you to the outcome that you want - which is to be opposed to a lockdown under any circumstances. By the way I have absolutely no opinion on whether the virus escaped a lab in Wuhan or not. It seems perfectly plausible to me. The only element of the discussion I'm interested in is whether a lockdown might be needed and this has nothing to do with that.
What I see is Chris Whitty wrestling with having to give advice which he knows will directly lead to more or fewer deaths. He's got some information to do this, but it's incomplete and may be confounded by the differences between the UK and SA; he's got to give the advice at a particularly feverish time because this is coincidentally the point in the year when people all decide to socialise at the same time. He can't wait, as Jim wants him to, until the data "indisputably" points to needing a lockdown to prevent failure of the healthcare system because of the lag time between people becoming infected, falling ill, and needing hospital care. If you wait until you're 100% sure then it's already too late to do anything about it.
That's all. I remain hopeful that another lockdown won't be needed because I'm sick to the back teeth of the whole thing. Our arguments on here will soon be moot anyway because we're getting better and better information all the time about whether a lockdown is needed or not.
Plus the NHS off sick rate in London went from 1900 to 4700 last week.
On the modelling issue, I thought this was good. I've listened to Sam Freedman a lot during the pandemic.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/new-approach-needed-avoid-covid-data-disputes-and-modelling-misunderstanding
If I were a politician or adviser my main takeaway would be that restrictions, if imposed now, would make a significant difference to the numbers. But not that the numbers will unquestionably be high enough to require restrictions. Where you’d go from there depends how wedded you are to the precautionary principle and your assessment of the costs of restrictions (which have, unhelpfully, not been modelled at any point during the pandemic). As we can see these are, reasonably enough, the questions that the cabinet are asking.
the majority of the media in the way they’ve framed this latest wave have been truly awful and scaremongering.
the majority of the media in the way they’ve framed this latest wave have been truly awful and scaremongering.
Who are you referring to here? (apart from the Guardian obvs).
If anything it’s been the complete opposite from the Telegraph, Mail, Sun etc.
Who are you referring to here? (apart from the Guardian obvs).
If anything it’s been the complete opposite from the Telegraph, Mail, Sun etc.
(I’m confident you could add R2 to that but I’d rather listen to white noise).I can recommend you some pretty thrilling pieces by Merzbow if you like?? (One of which I was listening to on the way back from Trefor in the summer....not my usual driving music I admit).
Pete - just listing a lot of media outlets and saying they’ve reported Covid numbers doesn’t amount to much of an argument to back up your accusation of ‘scaremongering’.
I haven't seen any scaremongering either. What we've all seen is that omicron is much more transmissible. And we all know that the data hasnt come through yet to be certain if it is sufficiently less severe to prevent that transmissibility becoming the nightmare we all know it could be. So we're all then reacting with our natural level of risk and risk tolerance and being bemused by those with radically different levels.
The BBC, sky news, ITN, channel 4, the telegraph has only just in the last day or two really pivoted away from parroting the last two weeks of doom stats from government.
Pete - just listing a lot of media outlets and saying they’ve reported Covid numbers doesn’t amount to much of an argument to back up your accusation of ‘scaremongering’.
..is nowhere remotely resembling what I actually said. What I did say was that the media have focussed on the doom predictions not the covid numbers.
It’s not always “scaremongering “ but it’s often over sensational.
Take today’s 100k threshold headlines. Compare “date reported” with “Specimen date”, the latter giving a much better picture:
(https://i.ibb.co/N6JH64Y/48390346-EDFB-4378-817-A-2-D2600-C2-F8-CF.jpg)
Quite alarming…
(https://i.ibb.co/tbtyV6B/F391423-E-B944-4-DA9-A17-F-C86090-CE136-E.jpg)
Quite different.
It’s not always “scaremongering “ but it’s often over sensational.
Take today’s 100k threshold headlines. Compare “date reported” with “Specimen date”, the latter giving a much better picture:
(https://i.ibb.co/N6JH64Y/48390346-EDFB-4378-817-A-2-D2600-C2-F8-CF.jpg)
Quite alarming…
(https://i.ibb.co/tbtyV6B/F391423-E-B944-4-DA9-A17-F-C86090-CE136-E.jpg)
Quite different.
What about the “by specimen date” picture do you think is less alarming? Genuine question, to be clear.
Given you can’t trust any of the greyed out days yet because they are incomplete, and that the earlier data is broadly identical in both graphs with about a day or two time shift (you’d expect a test with a specimen date of today to be reported tomorrow or the day after, give or take, so one graph should broadly be a time shift of the other, which you can roughly see in the shape), I’m not sure what different message I would take from one versus the other.
Give it another few days for the rest of the cases with specimen dates from 18th onwards to finish processing, and those bars will rise, and you’ll get back to a position where one graph is just a time shift of the other (perhaps with more blurring now because the gap between specimen date and processing date is becoming a bit more volatile (I’ve seen suggestion of larger processing delays in some places currently))
Because the error on the more recent days is unlikely huge (edit: bar yesterday, which will still be way off). My guess is that it peaked/plateaued about Friday last week. It’s not the precipitous ramp the first graph would suggest and that messaging/measures are having an impact.
Of course, Xmas itself might blow that out of the water.
And, there might be tens of thousands of tests five days late in being reported, but I suspect that’s what inflated todays figure. Wednesdays are always likely to be abnormally high as the combination of late weekend reporting and increased Monday testing, catch up.
My only other thought is that even if Wednesdays are inflated as you suggest, comparing to 7 days beforehand should strip that distortion out, and hardly shows a pretty picture (that’s the datapoint at just under 80k, if I’ve counted back correctly, so something like a 25-30% increase week on week)Oh I’m not trying to suggest there isn’t a wave, just that it’s (I really hope) possibly not the wave that’s being painted. If the transmissibility is as high as suspected, then the measures must be having a moderating effect. Less the restrictions,yet, more the public awareness and experience coupled with vaccine protection; at a guess.
Edit - >30%, I think - 106/78 is roughly 4/3 so 133%?
Alex - yes I was careful in wording it 'severity of outcome'. Not 'severity of omicron' or some-such.
I can't comprehend why modellers tasked by government wouldn't include available real-world evidence of omicron in a population that shows it doesn't have the same severity of outcome as Delta.is that they did include it.
Because I'm a prick, I just wanted to quickly come back to say I told you so to Pete :ras:Alex - yes I was careful in wording it 'severity of outcome'. Not 'severity of omicron' or some-such.
As I guessed, they did indeed include severity of outcome in the model, it was inherent severity of omicron that was modelled as being the same:
https://twitter.com/_nickdavies/status/1473941675634483200
So the answer toI can't comprehend why modellers tasked by government wouldn't include available real-world evidence of omicron in a population that shows it doesn't have the same severity of outcome as Delta.is that they did include it.
And as a bonus, if I've understood it right, the inherent severity does now look likely to be a bit lower too.
There are also signs that the effect of booster doses is waning.
Two doses of a vaccine were shown to offer limited protection against catching Omicron, which was then restored with a booster dose.
However, the report says this protection drops by between 15% and 25% after 10 weeks. This is still better than having no booster dose and the protection against severe disease or death is likely to be even greater.
Two doses of a vaccine were shown to offer limited protection against catching Omicron, which was then restored with a booster dose.-vs-
Their previous article (sorry couldn't find it) specifically referred to a 3rd vaxx booster being highly effective at avoiding Omicron symptoms (it was just "symptoms", not "serious illness").(Noting the latter article didn't mention much about transmission reduction, just symptom prevention.
Can someone who follows these things just provide some simple figures for me:
I'm still not sure I understand your objection? I suspect it's best to read "avoiding omicron symptoms" as "avoiding symptomatic infection" if that helps and that's what you're driving at? If not I don't understand still...
Bear in mind that most large-scale data will probably (I'm making an assumption here) look at avoiding symptomatic infection as avoiding infection per se is harder to measure unless you have groups you're regularly testing even if asymptomatic and you use them for your study (rather than the general public which typically gets tested when symptomatic)
[Beaten to it and with a clearer explanation]
(In fact, those of us who had AZ get an upgrade to our protection, because we get in on that funky mix-and-match action.)
Does this work for other types too?. I.e. as someone who had two Pfizer doses, given the choice, should I get a Moderna booster?
Unclear -- Pfizer and Moderna are very similar (not just the same type of vaccine, but almost identical) so they don't have the effect of mixing different mechanisms of action that you do when mixing mRNA vaccines with viral vector vaccines.
The Lancet study got a response that was a bit higher when stacking a full dose of Moderna on top of two Pfizers:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02717-3/fulltext
However, that may just be because Moderna went for a relatively higher dose as their "standard" dose than Pfizer did (which is also why it can hit a bit harder with side-effects).
Which is why they're using half-doses of Moderna for boosters, versus full doses of Pfizer.
On the basis of what we currently know, looks like three doses of any mRNA vax performs VERY strongly, so personally I wouldn't delay getting boosted in order to get a particular one.
My only other thought is that even if Wednesdays are inflated as you suggest, comparing to 7 days beforehand should strip that distortion out, and hardly shows a pretty picture (that’s the datapoint at just under 80k, if I’ve counted back correctly, so something like a 25-30% increase week on week)Oh I’m not trying to suggest there isn’t a wave, just that it’s (I really hope) possibly not the wave that’s being painted. If the transmissibility is as high as suspected, then the measures must be having a moderating effect. Less the restrictions,yet, more the public awareness and experience coupled with vaccine protection; at a guess.
Edit - >30%, I think - 106/78 is roughly 4/3 so 133%?
Because I'm a prick, I just wanted to quickly come back to say I told you so to Pete :ras:Alex - yes I was careful in wording it 'severity of outcome'. Not 'severity of omicron' or some-such.
As I guessed, they did indeed include severity of outcome in the model, it was inherent severity of omicron that was modelled as being the same:
https://twitter.com/_nickdavies/status/1473941675634483200
So the answer toI can't comprehend why modellers tasked by government wouldn't include available real-world evidence of omicron in a population that shows it doesn't have the same severity of outcome as Delta.is that they did include it.
And as a bonus, if I've understood it right, the inherent severity does now look likely to be a bit lower too.
It isn’t clear from your link? You’d need to look at the original LSHTM study, not ‘Imperial report #50’.
It doesn’t tally with what was said by Graham Medley (LSHTM) about the assumptions used in their scenario modelling, if you read his exchange.
Either way it makes no difference to the point,
I can't comprehend why modellers tasked by government wouldn't include available real-world evidence of omicron in a population that shows it doesn't have the same severity of outcome as Delta.but as he explains they already were predicting lower severity of outcome (this was a model output not an input - presumably vaccine efficacy and inherent severity are the main inputs), it was just a question of how much less the severity would be.
Why do you think I’d have a certain empathy on at least the former point?It was a joke Pete, because - as far as I can tell - you've misunderstood how they did the modelling.
Have you actually read the Medley/Nelson exchange on Twitter?I read something earlier between those two, I don't know if it was the thread you were referring to but I assume so as it involved him saying something like "we model what we're asked to model" and the stuff about only modelling interesting scenarios. I didn't see anything in there that backed up your statement about their model involving equal severity of outcome to delta. Please post it up. I've shown you why I think you were wrong (one of the modellers explicitly laying it out), you've not shown my why you think you were right, if you still do?
Latest figures also showed there were 8,474 people with Covid currently in hospital in England - the highest since March, but well below last winter's peak of more than 34,000.
Not all the patients in hospital will be being treated for Covid - about three in 10, according to latest data, have Covid but are in hospital for something else.
And a breakdown in percentage "with" and "for:" https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1473964874535419909
Not sure if there's a "post covid" thread I should put this in instead..
Climbed yesterday (having got out of iso on Christmas day, felt pretty much better, done a hangs session and some bouldering with no issue) doing some bouldering and then some aero cap where I totally tanked.. and woke up last night with a fever, sore throat, knackered etc... Looks like this is something that can happen post recovery. Anyone had similar? If so was it a one off or recurring thing? Any useful tricks to avoid it ("do less" being the obvious one)?
My wife was diagnosed with Guillain Barre in January 2020 and is still suffering significantly. However, I think it's misleading to describe GBS as a form of "long Covid," even if it's true that some people have developed GBS as a result of contracting Covid. GBS clearly exists independently of Covid (unless my wife somehow contracted Covid in the US in the fall of 2019, before it had been detected in China). GBS is an auto-immune disease triggered, in ways that are not fully understood, by a viral infection, very commonly gastroenteritis (my wife had a stomach bug in November 2019). In some people it is being triggered by Covid. Other auto-immune diseases, such as Type 1 diabetes, are similarly often triggered by viral infections. Our daughter developed Type 1 diabetes in May 2018, a few weeks after a chest infection.
My first wife died of the side effects of treatment for another auto-immune disease. I really fucking hate auto-immune diseases.
My wife was diagnosed with Guillain Barre in January 2020 and is still suffering significantly. However, I think it's misleading to describe GBS as a form of "long Covid," even if it's true that some people have developed GBS as a result of contracting Covid. GBS clearly exists independently of Covid (unless my wife somehow contracted Covid in the US in the fall of 2019, before it had been detected in China). GBS is an auto-immune disease triggered, in ways that are not fully understood, by a viral infection, very commonly gastroenteritis (my wife had a stomach bug in November 2019). In some people it is being triggered by Covid. Other auto-immune diseases, such as Type 1 diabetes, are similarly often triggered by viral infections. Our daughter developed Type 1 diabetes in May 2018, a few weeks after a chest infection.
My first wife died of the side effects of treatment for another auto-immune disease. I really fucking hate auto-immune diseases.
If it's a direct result of a covid infection what else is it? Long covid broadly falls into two broad families... those suffering from organ damage (especially lungs) from the initial infection and those suffering from long term disregulation of their immune response (of which GB is an extreme example).
My dad nearly died, spent most of a year unable to move unaided and still is in constant pain and struggling to walk 20 years on.
If it's a direct result of a covid infection what else is it?
With all due respect to Andy and wishing good health to his family, sorry to bring semi-frivolity into this...
But this one is just for you jab_happy :-*
https://ukbouldering.com/board/index.php/topic,25088.msg651971.html#msg651971
Not sure if there's a "post covid" thread I should put this in instead..
Climbed yesterday (having got out of iso on Christmas day, felt pretty much better, done a hangs session and some bouldering with no issue) doing some bouldering and then some aero cap where I totally tanked.. and woke up last night with a fever, sore throat, knackered etc... Looks like this is something that can happen post recovery. Anyone had similar? If so was it a one off or recurring thing? Any useful tricks to avoid it ("do less" being the obvious one)?
My triathlete pals who have had really bad long covid said something similar: in good patches when some mild exercise seemed possible they were OK during but then knackered for days afterwards. They still have pretty limiting problems 21 months after catching it. My dad had bad GBS which is another rare but nastier form of long covid...I can assure you that is horrible. The NHS report makes it sound not so scary until you get to the last line... No mention that significant numbers who don't die end up paralysed and need months of extensive physio... as nerve use returns it comes with endless pain.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/guillain-barre-syndrome/
https://gaincharity.org.uk/faq/gbs-and-acute-associated-inflammatory-neuropathies/
Tbh I'm glad he didn't have to suffer the pandemic, much as I'd love him to still be around.
Just to add, that in saying this I in no way intend to diminish the suffering of those who lost parents and other loved ones to Covid.
Tbh I'm glad he didn't have to suffer the pandemic, much as I'd love him to still be around.
I've often felt the same about my dad, who died in 2018, aged 86 and in poor health. I think he would have found the whole thing very upsetting and confusing. I know it may sound strange, but I'm glad he was spared it.
Assuming the "wait 4 weeks after you've had COVID" guidance is still in place, earliest I'd be eligible is (I think) next Weds. In two minds about rushing to get it done as a) I'd rather not scupper Xmas with potential side effects, b) I'm guessing I'm full to the hat-band with antibodies anyway, and c) I have a booking for 6th Jan anyway.
Yeah, I don't know if anyone's got info or advice on optimal timing of boosters in people who are already "super-immune".
Effectively, getting Covid already functioned as a kind of "third dose" for you, and we know super-immunity holds up pretty strongly against Omicron:
https://twitter.com/JanineKimpel/status/1468700628922904591 (https://twitter.com/JanineKimpel/status/1468700628922904591)
Based on the Balazs Lab stuff, looks like you could potentially gain even more immunity by getting a booster at some point, but you're going to be in a decent position right now.
What's more Super-Immune than Super-Immune? Ultra-Immune?
Having had the AZ for jabs 1 and 2 I reckon if they give me a different one for the Booster I could end up being able to fly, see into the future or something as well as being COVID-resistant.
There are rock-type jokes to be made here but I'm too tired and brain-dead this morning so I'm just going to drop the links and let you fill them in:
https://inews.co.uk/news/health/new-covid-booster-jab-manchester-gritstone-tackle-variants-1382138
https://ir.gritstonebio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gritstone-announces-positive-clinical-results-first-cohort-phase
(Only Phase I, but looks promising, woohoo!)
Yup.Yes I've noticed that too, a good thing, including for the reason you state. Not sure why the boosterage has slowed so much, aren't they heeding jab_happy's sexy sexy vaccine research article links??
But you know what really impresses me is the ~100k people having their first jab, every week. A good number of those must be hesitants finally defying the antivacc screaming.
Well, not sure, but I know the category includes the likes of my three youngest, who aren’t able to get boosted for another two weeks, yet.Yup.Yes I've noticed that too, a good thing, including for the reason you state. Not sure why the boosterage has slowed so much, aren't they heeding jab_happy's sexy sexy vaccine research article links??
But you know what really impresses me is the ~100k people having their first jab, every week. A good number of those must be hesitants finally defying the antivacc screaming.
Yup.
But you know what really impresses me is the ~100k people having their first jab, every week. A good number of those must be hesitants finally defying the antivacc screaming.
Some will be, but I think 100k kids turning twelve every week, might mean we have a serious resource crisis looming…Yup.
But you know what really impresses me is the ~100k people having their first jab, every week. A good number of those must be hesitants finally defying the antivacc screaming.
Be nice if it was, but it could be just kids who are now 12?
If the only risk from Covid infection were myocarditis it would appear to be a no brainer for that demographic. However, you’d need to consider the incidence of long Covid, organ/ lung damage and death amongst that age group to have a fair picture of relative risk.0.001% vs 0.0015% risk of myocarditis. Is that right? Any idea of what the background risk is?
It's a more convincing argument than nano-routers spawning pico-tentacles inside your bloodstream though. By at least a factor of about 1 to 0.0015.Point conceded.
You're not arguing with me* (or at least if you are then I'm not arguing back..). I'm not interested in an argument I'm interested in what people make of the study and what it means.
'yes I am' / no you're not / yes I am etc. etc. :)