UKBouldering.com

Coronavirus Covid-19 (Read 681294 times)

slab_happy

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1088
  • Karma: +141/-1
#4500 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 02, 2021, 02:22:10 pm
The pandemic isn't over until its over but a few western countries, including the UK are planning for 3rd boosters while the developing world increasingly desperately needs help.

Total agreement, but it's also worth people being aware that, on the individual level, you not taking a booster you're eligible for doesn't mean it can or will go to another country, it'll just be wasted:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/12/individuals-vaccine-inequality-booster-jab

Redistribution has to happen much higher up the chain (and Pollard knows whereof he speaks).

I'm advising everyone I know to take boosters if they're eligible and to sign petitions and write stroppy letters to their MPs demanding the UK get serious about donating to Covax and supporting patent waivers.

Offwidth

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1767
  • Karma: +57/-13
    • Offwidth
#4501 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 02, 2021, 03:11:11 pm
The pandemic isn't over until its over but a few western countries, including the UK are planning for 3rd boosters while the developing world increasingly desperately needs help.

Total agreement, but it's also worth people being aware that, on the individual level, you not taking a booster you're eligible for doesn't mean it can or will go to another country, it'll just be wasted:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/12/individuals-vaccine-inequality-booster-jab

Redistribution has to happen much higher up the chain (and Pollard knows whereof he speaks).

I'm advising everyone I know to take boosters if they're eligible and to sign petitions and write stroppy letters to their MPs demanding the UK get serious about donating to Covax and supporting patent waivers.

Yeah I totally agree with that, for now. I do think we need to be pushing back about the need for 2nd and 3rd boosters (outside the most vulnerable groups). They can be redirected if enough people campaign.

On the subject of boosters not much seems to be being said in the news (unless I missed it) about how we have supply issues with Pfizer and so most of what's left for the next months in England will be Moderna.

slab_happy

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1088
  • Karma: +141/-1
#4502 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 02, 2021, 03:37:49 pm
On the subject of boosters not much seems to be being said in the news (unless I missed it) about how we have supply issues with Pfizer and so most of what's left for the next months in England will be Moderna.

Dunno if that makes any practical difference, as they're basically the same vaccine in different hats (apart from Moderna having a higher dosage than Pfizer, which is why IIRC they use a half-dose when they're using it as a booster).

spidermonkey09

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 2815
  • Karma: +159/-4
#4503 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 02, 2021, 04:07:39 pm

Yeah I totally agree with that, for now. I do think we need to be pushing back about the need for 2nd and 3rd boosters (outside the most vulnerable groups). They can be redirected if enough people campaign.


I'd have no problem with my booster going to Covax. I'd absolutely be against any future additional restrictions beyond the current status quo in the future if it did though. In a nutshell I think that's why no government of any political stripe will divert vaccines earmarked for its own citizens elsewhere because they are essentially holding a gun to their own head.

Whoops just seen you were referring to hypothetical 2nd and 3rd boosters rather than the current one, same point stands though to a certain extent.
« Last Edit: December 02, 2021, 04:21:19 pm by spidermonkey09 »

Offwidth

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1767
  • Karma: +57/-13
    • Offwidth
#4504 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 02, 2021, 05:34:44 pm

Dunno if that makes any practical difference, as they're basically the same vaccine in different hats (apart from Moderna having a higher dosage than Pfizer, which is why IIRC they use a half-dose when they're using it as a booster).

Not much from the vaccination perspective. What concerns me about it would normally be a specific lack of openness but in this case it's almost certainly part of the active avoidance of news by DHSC control. It's the same reason we are not hearing just how bad things are in terms of being too often overstretched, sometimes to OPEL 4 levels (where patients are at risk), across English NHS trusts.

https://mobile.twitter.com/roylilley/status/1430892965711400960

Roy Lilley blogs on this regularly, helped by trust bosses and NHS staff leaking to him

Offwidth

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1767
  • Karma: +57/-13
    • Offwidth
#4505 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 03, 2021, 10:07:15 am
This has very worrying implications for the UK  (thanks for the link due to minimike on the other channel).

https://twitter.com/twenseleers/status/1466501989500653568?s=21

spidermonkey09

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 2815
  • Karma: +159/-4
#4506 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 03, 2021, 10:29:19 am
So out of interest, in terms of what you want to happen based on the data you look at, you'd be in favour of an immediate lockdown, return to furlough etc?

I think its fairly likely that we'll see a wave this winter but I'm unconvinced it is politically possible to lockdown again for numerous reasons, so the more likely outcome is muddling through. Not least because if the variant is as bad as you suggest, we won't be able to stop it spreading anyway, even in a lockdown.

Offwidth

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1767
  • Karma: +57/-13
    • Offwidth
#4507 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 03, 2021, 10:51:07 am
It doesn't matter what you think. If that hospitalisation and immunity escape data is correct in combination, even if we get better protection from having much more delta infection and better vaccination than SA, a lockdown may be unavoidable.  SA doesn't look as bad as we will with that data, if it pans out to us, as it's a very young country (medium age 28). Remember vaccines effectively reduce risks by about a decade and our medium age is 40 and we have proportionally way more of the most vulnerable (very old people and those with poor immune response through health problems).

The big UK problem will be hospitalisation increases in an NHS already over capacity and exhausted because the government chose to run things too hot (and unlike the EU and US our country has cut off routes to bring in new staff fast for Nightingale style responses).  Also the Stevens & Hancock combination did let local trusts do their own thing in the earlier pandemic peaks (what the NHS achieved in Jan 2021 was plain amazing)...I've less confidence in the leadership of the current pair.  I really hope I'm wrong but this looks bad.

Fiend

Offline
  • *
  • _
  • forum hero
  • Abominable sex magick practitioner and climbing heathen
  • Posts: 13413
  • Karma: +676/-67
  • Whut
#4508 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 03, 2021, 11:04:41 am
So out of interest, in terms of what you want to happen based on the data you look at, you'd be in favour of an immediate lockdown, return to furlough etc?
That's a question for LozT, surely??

spidermonkey09

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 2815
  • Karma: +159/-4
#4509 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 03, 2021, 11:29:11 am
It doesn't matter what you think.

Good start.  ::)

Actually, it does matter what the public, which includes me, think, because its public behaviour that determines the effectiveness of any restrictions. I don't think you will get much buy in for a lockdown from a population which will have largely had 3 jabs by end of January. Maybe if things are catastrophically bad, but not before that.

You clearly don't fall into this category, but I'd be willing to bet a pretty big chunk of the population fall into the 'just crack on best we can' category. I would need some serious persuading to come out of this category also, and before you say it again I'm more than aware of the NHS issues.

You haven't addressed the point about whether a lockdown would even help if the variant is as bad as you say.


Offwidth

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1767
  • Karma: +57/-13
    • Offwidth
#4510 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 03, 2021, 12:33:49 pm
All the UK evidence is that public compliance with clear advice linked to genuine hospital need  was way better than most of SAGE expected (one of the reasons the March 2020 lockdown was so slow was a worry of lockdown fatigue, subsequently proven wrong). That's why I'm a dove on population compliance: based on that evidence (the biggest hawks tend to be libertarian or some level of covid or vaccination deniers).

We don't know about what level of lockdown might be needed as we don't have clear data yet. The effective R rate in SA is said to be about 2 in a country estimated at close to 100% of the population with some immunity (mainly infection based or infection plus vaccination). Unlike the UK, SA has had a death rate almost identical to the estimated demographic adjusted IFR for covid. There is a chance full Plan B might even be enough to just scrape through if we act fast, give trusts full flexibility to restructure and our more delta based immunity makes the situation better than I expect.  Any delay or top down government interference in trusts (or continued conflicting public messaging) makes a harsher lockdown more likely. It seems close to certain some level of lockdown will stop Omicron in the UK, thanks to high vaccination and previous infections levels, given the information we have so far on this variant.

Our leaders can't bluff and bluster if a pandemic puts the NHS at risk. Boris's dithering didn't just cost us tens of thousands of extra lost lives, it also cost us a fortune as lockdowns were longer than they would have been if we acted faster and the NHS is more battered than if we acted faster. Sweden also showed us that more consistent messaging trusted by the population led to much fewer deaths, less stringent restrictions, lower health system strains and lower lockdown economic costs.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2021, 12:48:21 pm by Offwidth »

Nutty

Offline
  • ***
  • obsessive maniac
  • Posts: 359
  • Karma: +17/-0
#4511 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 03, 2021, 01:17:31 pm
So out of interest, in terms of what you want to happen based on the data you look at, you'd be in favour of an immediate lockdown, return to furlough etc?

I think its fairly likely that we'll see a wave this winter but I'm unconvinced it is politically possible to lockdown again for numerous reasons, so the more likely outcome is muddling through. Not least because if the variant is as bad as you suggest, we won't be able to stop it spreading anyway, even in a lockdown.
Surely the first step is to fully implement the previously announced Plan B: covid pass, masks and advice to work from home. Apart from the advice to work from home, it's no more than is already in place in Wales.

spidermonkey09

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 2815
  • Karma: +159/-4
#4512 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 03, 2021, 01:55:24 pm

Surely the first step is to fully implement the previously announced Plan B: covid pass, masks and advice to work from home. Apart from the advice to work from home, it's no more than is already in place in Wales.

Yeah, I could see that happening, and I'd be ok with it. I don't think it would be enough to satisfy the critics though. I still think, contrary to Offwidth, that workplaces that aren't already doing some form of WFH will need to be legally required to do so this time around. I would be very surprised if my former workplace reverted back to WFH for example, they were back in the office as soon as they could last year.

All the UK evidence is that public compliance with clear advice linked to genuine hospital need  was way better than most of SAGE expected (one of the reasons the March 2020 lockdown was so slow was a worry of lockdown fatigue, subsequently proven wrong). That's why I'm a dove on population compliance: based on that evidence (the biggest hawks tend to be libertarian or some level of covid or vaccination deniers).

That evidence is only of limited relevance given the fact that we now have a vaccine and are close to 2 years on from that first lockdown. An element of fatigue has obviously set in. Holding up evidence of good adherence to the first, game changing, genuinely unique first lockdown and suggesting that adherence is likely to be replicated in subsequent lockdowns seems obviously flawed; the material circumstances are totally different. Adherence was way less in Jan/Feb this year than it was in March 2020; you can see that straightaway through the medium of people going climbing in Jan 21 when they didn't in March 20.

Sweden also showed us that more consistent messaging trusted by the population led to much fewer deaths, less stringent restrictions, lower health system strains and lower lockdown economic costs.

Is this the same Sweden we all (me included) spent much of spring 2020 criticising for their laissez faire approach?

The bottom line is, as you say, we don't have clear data- waiting for it is the only option.




Offwidth

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1767
  • Karma: +57/-13
    • Offwidth
#4513 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 03, 2021, 02:17:17 pm
Well the covid behavioural specialists I know beg to differ with your opinion. Mind you one of them is SAGE and IndieSAGE so I guess you won't trust her. There is clear anecdotal evidence a significant group of the population are being a !ot more careful already... lots of xmas party bookings cancelled in the news... only saw a few people without a mask in the big Sainsbury the day before yesterday, despite mask usage being down to about a half previously (oddly the petrol station there was the opposite but on a tiny sample).

On the subject of Sweden, yes it's the same country that did much worse than Norway but better than the UK. In particular I was angry early on that they tried to form a herd immunity approach pact with the UK and NL. I'm completely happy with my posting history on the subject compared to how things panned out.

My main point was if any lockdown is needed to protect the NHS it simply can't be avoided and any delay, poor messaging or poor compliance will just make restriction requirements worse. I think compliance will be good as I trust the experts I know and there is a significant chance we will get to see who is right.

Will Hunt

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Superworm is super-long
  • Posts: 7976
  • Karma: +631/-115
    • Unknown Stones
#4514 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 03, 2021, 02:43:09 pm
I do wish people would stop trying to compare the UK to Sweden, an enormous country with three modestly sized urban areas separated by vast tracts of forest and lakes.

Offwidth

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1767
  • Karma: +57/-13
    • Offwidth
#4515 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 03, 2021, 02:45:45 pm
 Very romantic Will but Sweden has a slightly higher percentage of urban living.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_countries_by_percentage_of_urban_population

Will Hunt

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Superworm is super-long
  • Posts: 7976
  • Karma: +631/-115
    • Unknown Stones
#4516 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 03, 2021, 02:57:46 pm
Very romantic Will but Sweden has a slightly higher percentage of urban living.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_countries_by_percentage_of_urban_population

The point is not about what percentage of the population is urbanised, it's about total population and how those urban areas are structured. From Liverpool to Leeds and down to Sheffield (and beyond) is not far off being a continuous conurbation with a few thin strips of green along the way. Consider the difference in edge effects when trying to control the spread through restricting movement.

Handy link (not Guardian, soz) here if you're not sure what I mean:
https://www.google.com/maps

Fultonius

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 4315
  • Karma: +138/-3
  • Was strong but crap, now weaker but better.
    • Photos
#4517 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 03, 2021, 03:08:59 pm
Very romantic Will but Sweden has a slightly higher percentage of urban living.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_countries_by_percentage_of_urban_population

The point is not about what percentage of the population is urbanised, it's about total population and how those urban areas are structured. From Liverpool to Leeds and down to Sheffield (and beyond) is not far off being a continuous conurbation with a few thin strips of green along the way. Consider the difference in edge effects when trying to control the spread through restricting movement.

Handy link (not Guardian, soz) here if you're not sure what I mean:
https://www.google.com/maps

Also don't forget the national mindset is VERY different. We were there in the summer and asked a few people about it, and observed general behaviour. It seemed to us that Sweden was like a child who's been brought up to be conscientious and cautious, and that looking out for ones family and neighbours was just part of the psyche. With the parents away, the kids would maybe have a small fire in a safe fire pit in the woods and cook hot dogs on a stick. Going home early and taking all their rubbish home, and probably recycling it...

The UK on the other hand is like a repressed teenager, desperate to have a wild house party as soon as the parents are are.

They didn't need told what to do....

(massive oversimplification and overgeneralisation, but I think there's a shred of truth in it.

SA Chris

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 29221
  • Karma: +630/-11
    • http://groups.msn.com/ChrisClix
#4518 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 03, 2021, 03:49:32 pm
Very romantic Will but Sweden has a slightly higher percentage of urban living.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_countries_by_percentage_of_urban_population

The point is not about what percentage of the population is urbanised, it's about total population and how those urban areas are structured. From Liverpool to Leeds and down to Sheffield (and beyond) is not far off being a continuous conurbation with a few thin strips of green along the way. Consider the difference in edge effects when trying to control the spread through restricting movement.


And UK has 6(ish) times the population in a country half (ish) the size.

Offwidth

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1767
  • Karma: +57/-13
    • Offwidth
#4519 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 03, 2021, 06:12:01 pm

Also don't forget the national mindset is VERY different. We were there in the summer and asked a few people about it, and observed general behaviour. It seemed to us that Sweden was like a child who's been brought up to be conscientious and cautious, and that looking out for ones family and neighbours was just part of the psyche. With the parents away, the kids would maybe have a small fire in a safe fire pit in the woods and cook hot dogs on a stick. Going home early and taking all their rubbish home, and probably recycling it...

The UK on the other hand is like a repressed teenager, desperate to have a wild house party as soon as the parents are are.

They didn't need told what to do....

(massive oversimplification and overgeneralisation, but I think there's a shred of truth in it.

That's my view on the real difference, it's not physical geography, it's human geography  & behaviour. I'd extend your fun analogy:  the UK repressed teenager is being looked after by a bad granddad in a bit of a hovel frequented by drinking buddies, while the Swedish family have responsible if liberal parents in a clean but busy home with visitors. They had the same spread factors we had at different times including their poorer communities hit harder, and a devastating spread in care homes. The Norwegian family next door had similarities to the Swedish family but were much more conservative and didn't like visitors when there was a virus doing the rounds

As for not comparing, even the nations best known virologist, Ferguson, was in on the act:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95699-9

(Sorry I couldn't find the Guardian link :) )
« Last Edit: December 03, 2021, 06:19:20 pm by Offwidth »

mrjonathanr

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 5377
  • Karma: +242/-6
  • Getting fatter, not fitter.
#4520 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 03, 2021, 06:34:14 pm
Also don't forget the national mindset is VERY different. We were there in the summer and asked a few people about it, and observed general behaviour. It seemed to us that Sweden was like a child who's been brought up to be conscientious and cautious, and that looking out for ones family and neighbours was just part of the psyche. With the parents away, the kids would maybe have a small fire in a safe fire pit in the woods and cook hot dogs on a stick. Going home early and taking all their rubbish home, and probably recycling it...

The UK on the other hand is like a repressed teenager, desperate to have a wild house party as soon as the parents are are.

They didn't need told what to do....

(massive oversimplification and overgeneralisation, but I think there's a shred of truth in it.

Obviously it’s a simplification as you left out the preparing of gravadlax and surströmming, but we get the picture.

jwi

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 4219
  • Karma: +331/-1
    • On Steep Ground
#4521 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 04, 2021, 10:51:36 am
A Scandinavian city does not look like or function like a continental city, except for the most deprived areas of said Scandinavian city. IMHO, of course.

BrutusTheBear

Offline
  • ****
  • forum abuser
  • Posts: 568
  • Karma: +59/-3
  • Certified socialist talking head of this world.
#4522 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 04, 2021, 11:00:15 am
Another factor into the mix, that I don't see discussed much anywhere, is the levels of statutory sick pay available to people required to isolate.  In Sweden it is 80% of full pay by law with many companies offering more than this. 
The level of statutory sick pay in the UK is insulting and I am sure leaves many already low paid workers, struggling to get by, less inclined to get tested if they are sick but able to function. 
Another reflection of the very differing attitude of ruling classes here where profit overrides welfare.  Likely to be a false economy but we seem to be unable to think that far ahead.

mrjonathanr

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 5377
  • Karma: +242/-6
  • Getting fatter, not fitter.
#4523 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 04, 2021, 11:07:17 am
80%? That would be a decisive difference for compliance.

slab_happy

Offline
  • *****
  • forum hero
  • Posts: 1088
  • Karma: +141/-1
#4524 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
December 04, 2021, 11:11:37 am
This has very worrying implications for the UK  (thanks for the link due to minimike on the other channel).

https://twitter.com/twenseleers/status/1466501989500653568?s=21

The one consolatory element I can pick out: that's looking at potential immune escape when it comes to infection, and all the info we have suggests that even when the vaccines don't prevent infection, they can still offer substantial protection against severe illness. They don't "fail" all at once.

(And that's assuming that vaccine-produced immunity and immunity from infection with a previous variant perform the same; I have seen some speculation that vaccine-produced immunity might perform better when it comes to a heavily-mutated variant like this, but I don't have the background to evaluate how plausible or likely that is: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1466493406704807941 ).

Obviously it's still bad news because, as I repeat ad nauseam to people, a small percentage of a very very big number is still a big number. Even if only a small percentage of people with breakthrough infections get severely ill -- if you have enough breakthrough infections, that's a big number.

There are a lot of key things about Omicron that we don't know right now, but are going to be finding out very fast.

 

SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2024, SimplePortal