For the benefit of anyone who doesn't follow comps too closely, but is keen to understand a bit before the Olympics (especially now there's significant GB interest), I've written a summary of the full list of qualified athletes. This will be lead/boulder only (I know nothing about speed), and I will almost certainly get some assessments incorrect, feel free to call me out on anyone I poorly estimate. To be clear: the expectations are mine, not theirs!
Overall thoughts:
MENQualifiers from Bern World Championships
Jakob Schubert (AUT)
- The ultimate seasoned veteran - 235 IFSC comps, since 2004
- Bronze in Tokyo 2020
- 6 World Champs wins, 7 World Cup season wins, 23 World Cup wins, 52 total World Cup medals
- Despite being one of the oldest that's still at the top of the sport, and predominately a lead specialist, he's adapted relatively well to the new style of boulders so can score heavily in both rounds on his day.
Expectations for Paris: Would be bold to bet against him getting another medal.
Colin Duffy (USA)
- Finalist from Tokyo 2020 (finished 7th)
- Slightly stronger lead climber than boulderer, but has won a world cup in each discipline
- Very intense competitor, expect loud roars when he tops a boulder
Expectations for Paris: Decent shout at finals, would be a little surprised if he got a podium but he managed it to make it here!
Tomoa Narasaki (JPN)
- A dominant force in bouldering since 2016, only vaguely fading this last year or two
- Finalist from Tokyo 2020 (finished 4th)
- Has won 25 World Cups medals, including 7 golds
- Also 3 time world champion
- Known for mastering the dynamic style so prevalent in modern comps, he's lacking the endurance on lead routes but a hard set of boulders and a big performance on the lead wall will put him up amongst the top contenders
Expectations for Paris: I'd expect him to make finals but maybe not quite get a medal
Qualifiers from continental championships
Jesse Grupper (USA)
- Reemerged on the scene in 2022 after a few years out from IFSC comps
- Excellent year with 2 golds, 1 silver, 1 bronze across world cups
- One of the weaker boulderers to qualify (highest world cup position is 27th), but strong enough on the routes to make up for it somewhat on the right day.
Expectations for Paris: Personally I would say finals would be a big achievement
Toby Roberts (GBR)
- The Brit with the best chance of a medal
- Grabbed a bronze at the end of 2022 in Edinburgh (lead), before a gold in each discipline in 2023
- Good start to this season, with 1st+4th+7th from his 3 comps
- Proper all rounder, has produced brilliant fights on head walls, and cruised boulders that other climbers have had to really fight on
Expectations for Paris: Finals will be a minimum, I think he'll believe a podium is certainly possible
Sorato Anraku (JPN)
- Had an incredible 2023, including 5 World Cup golds and both overalls, in his debut season on the senior circuit
- Like Toby, a complete all rounder - he's started this season with a medal of each colour, from just 3 comps
Expectations for Paris: Would be a big surprise if he didn't make finals, and a podium is easily within his reach
Campbell Harrison (AUS)
- Unlikely to feature given the high calibre field surrounding him
- A few lead semi finals under his belt, none in boulder
- Decent continental results, albeit a significantly different quality of competition compared to the world cups
Expectations for Paris: None - less scope for an upset via speed like the old format, but if the lead round is hard, he may be able to sneak a place or two up the board
Mel Janse van Rensburg (RSA)
- Even lower expectations than for Campbell
- Never even come top 60 in a world cup
Expectations for Paris: Anything better than 20th in Paris is an amazing result (I know this sounds patronising, but the contrast between his CV and everyone else's is quite stark)
Qualifiers from OQS
Lee Dohyun (KOR)
- Dominated the OQS, with a 1st and a 2nd
- Shot to success post-covid, after very mediocre results previously
- Has made a good number of finals, with a few medals, across the last few years
- Slight shoulder tweak recently, not that you'd know if with the OQS result
Expectations for Paris: Finals is a realistic aim, outside shot at a medal
Sam Avezou (FRA)
- Part of an influx of young French climbers that have enjoyed great success on the world cup circuit recently
- Fairly regular finalist, with the odd medal too
- Fairly balanced lead vs boulder, can have good performances in either or both.
Expectations for Paris: I'm sure a final in front of a home crowd would be the target, and it's a reasonable one
Adam Ondra (CZE)
- Has actually never won an international comp in a combined format
- Collective wish: he gets the gold, hangs up the comp shoes, unclimbed rocks everywhere fear for their lives
Expectations for Paris: Would be a little surprised if he misses finals, but would also be surprised if he gets a medal.
Alberto Ginés López (ESP)
- Reigning Olympic champion - the surprise winner from Tokyo
- A real wild card: last year he went from 29th in Bern to 2nd in Laval, just two months later.
- Only one silver and two bronze from his world cups, but a few more lead finals in there too
Expectations for Paris: Huge huge shock if he retains the title, not even a strong shout for finals, but he's definitely one of the hardest to predict
Hannes van Duysen (BEL)
- Another with a good 2023, he's won a few medals in boulder and had recent comparative success in lead
- Very good on a slab
- As with some other of these young guns, more is surely to come in future (he's only 19...)
Expectations for Paris: An outside chance at finals
Paul Jenft (FRA)
- The second young French star (beating Mejdi Schalk to this spot, a bit of an upset IMO)
- WC finalist in both disciplines, including one boulder bronze
- Noticeably tall (as debated in this thread
here) which results in some interesting beta
Expectations for Paris: Similar chance of being a home finalist to Sam.
Yannick Flohé (GER)
- A frequent finalist in both boulder and lead, with not many but a few medals to show for it
- Insanely powerful, with very strong fingers, a favourable set of boulders could really set him apart from the rest
Expectations for Paris: Potential to make finals, might struggle to get more than that
Hamish McArthur (GBR)
- A bit of a dark horse, he's not quite regained the heights he managed in 2021 with two finals and a medal at World Champs
- Good balance across the disciplines, probably a slight strength in lead
- Qualification clearly meant a huge deal to him, would hope he can harness that, enjoy the comp, and let that bring him some success
Expectations for Paris: Realistically I think finals would be a bit of an upset, but you never know
Sascha Lehmann (SUI)
- Multiple lead WC medals and wins, far less success in boulder
- Honestly I thought he was too single-disciplined to make it to Paris, but he manages to pull it round with great progress deep into the lead routes.
Expectations for Paris: Unlikely to make finals, too many people more well rounded climbers
Alexander Megos (GER)
- 9th in Tokyo, despite coming 19th in speed
- In comps, he has not quite replicated the rock form that you may know him for
- 9 World Cup medals, all in lead, over 7 senior seasons
- Less success in boulder, although still a good number of semi finals
Expectations for Paris: Another who will probably miss out on finals again
Luka Potočar (SLO)
- Another lead specialist!
- Far more experience on routes, with a world championship silver to go with a few other world cup medals
- Never made a world cup semi final in boulder
Expectations for Paris: Would have to have the boulder round of his life to get near finals
Pan Yufei (CHN)
- 14th in Tokyo, despite coming 20th in speed
- No boulder finals, and only 4 lead finals, but he did get a silver and a bronze from these
Expectations for Paris: Unlikely to feature in finals
WOMENQualifiers from Bern World Championships
Janja Garnbret (SLO)
- Reigning Olympic champion
- As the kids say... she's the GOAT
- 2 golds from 2 world cups this year
- Nailed on favourite for the title - for me, only Natalia comes close in boulder, and there's nobody in lead who I'd back to reliably beat Janja.
- If you ever want to marvel at incredible she is, scroll through
this page and then compare it to any other athlete of your choosing. Just look at all those 1s! If she's in a comp, she wins it.
Expectations for Paris: Odds on for gold medal
Jessica Pilz (AUT)
- Finalist from Tokyo 2020 (finished 7th)
- Only made a few boulder finals (none recently), but a real force in lead
- Rare to see her outside of lead finals, lots of medals
Expectations for Paris: Likely finalist, podium may be a stretch
Ai Mori (JPN)
- 6 lead comps since covid, 4 golds + 2 silvers
- Won the only ever boulder+lead world cup in Morioka
- Endless endurance - doesn't ever seem to let go, just keeps on holding on
- One of the shortest climbers, which can be her undoing, especially in boulder - although she is a multiple finalist in boulder world cups
Expectations for Paris: Surprised if she doesn't make finals, decent shout for podium as she should get big points for lead
Qualifiers from continental championships
Natalia Grossman (USA)
- Almost always a finalist, in both disciplines
- 3 time overall boulder winner, plus 10 World cup wins (pretty much whenever Janja doesn't win, it's Natalia)
- Slightly more modest success in lead, but still 6 WC medals
- Hard to be sure of her form this year, but 1 win from 1 comp (SLC boulder WC) counts for something
Expectations for Paris: Surely a finalist, where I would imagine both she and Janja will score heavy on boulder, and it'll be simple duel to get highest on the lead wall. Likely medal, colour t.b.d.
Oriane Bertone (FRA)
- Remember those strong French youths from the men's side? Well they've got strong young women too!
- Superb on the boulders, gaining multiple medals (lots of silvers, only losing out to, you guessed it, Natalia or Janja)
- Only a few lead semi finals
Expectations for Paris:Unlikely to win, but a medal is definitely a possibility, especially in front of a home crowd.
Zhang Yuetong (CHN)
- Climbed very well in 2019, with multiple finals in both disciplines, but not quite rediscovered that form since
- Had a superb comp to qualify from Asia, against a predictably strong field, so may be able to pull something out the bag
Expectations for Paris: I'd lean towards finals being a stretch, simply due to the quality of the other athletes to come
Oceana Mackenzie (AUS)
- 19th in Tokyo 2020
- Consistently upper end of semi finals, or finals, in boulder, with a career best of 4th this season
- Made a few lead semi finals, although not yet competed this year
- Qualified from Oceania region with a score of 199.9 - one dropped boulder away from the perfect comp
Expectations for Paris: Should improve on last time out, but finals might be a bit of an ask
Lauren Mukheibir (RSA)
- Like her South African teammate Mel in the mens, a real outsider
- Only competed in one world cup, a 49th in boulder in 2022.
Expectations for Paris: Not found much about her, but it seems fair to say that anything above 20th would be a massive result
Qualifiers from OQS
Brooke Raboutou (USA)
- Finalist in Tokyo 2020 (finished 5th)
- Queen on the OQS, with wins in both comps
- Almost surprising she wasn't already qualified - both she and Natalie were a league apart in the Pan American qualifier, but only one could go through then
- In approx 30 comps since covid, she has only been outside the top 10 once, and in the others, she's almost always in finals and in and around the medals
- Very well rounded across lead and boulder
Expectations for Paris: Good chance of at least matching her result from Tokyo, a contender for a medal
Miho Nonaka (JPN)
- Silver medalist from Tokyo 2020
- Regular boulder medalist, with a few lead finals in there too
- One of the few to maybe suffer from the removal of speed from the combined format
Expectations for Paris: I'd be surprised if she manages another Olympic medal, but finals certainly isn't out of the question
Erin McNeice (GBR)
- The new kid on the block for GB
- Third in both OQS events, with a good balance of lead and boulder scoring
- Not made many semi finals or finals but not entered many world cups either
- Those OQS medals were actually her first ever medals, senior or junior, so she's finding something at the right time
Expectations for Paris: A real surprise, I could see her maybe edging a spot in finals, but not sure she's quite got the experience to enter a medal discussion
Seo Chae-hyun (KOR)
- Finalist in Tokyo 2020 (finished 8th)
- Predominately a lead climber, she has had the occasional moment of magic in boulder
- Success in lead has come in the form of 12 WC medals from only a few more comps, only missing finals once
Expectations for Paris: No reason she can't make finals, but not sure she's got the edge to match the top contenders. Any improvement on last time should be the aim.
Luo Zhilu (CHN)
- Just 18 years old, although in her third senior season already
- Fairly unremarkable results, until this season where she's already scooped up a silver and a bronze from her only two world cups.
Expectations for Paris: Clearly showing signs of real form this season, I'd still be surprised if she got to finals but you never know
Ievgeniia Kazbekova (UKR)
- A good climber in both boulder and lead, with a few semi finals and finals in each
- Never quite broken into the upper levels of the comps, but she had a few good moments in 2023
Expectations for Paris: Not sure she'll make finals, but there's potential for a good day in either discipline to boost her chances
Mia Krampl (SLO)
- 18th in Tokyo 2020
- Feels like she's been around for years now, but still only 23
- Frequent lead finalist in recent years, with a fair few boulder finals previously too, and a world cup bronze in each
- Two world championship silver medals too, so she can clearly turn it on when it matters
Expectations for Paris: Finals feels like a bit of a long shot, but beating her previous ranking is certainly possible
Lucia Dörffel (GER)
- The biggest surprise qualifier
- Never made a final in a senior world competition, not many semis either
- Had a career best of 7th in SLC in May, then consistent OQS events to make it to Paris
Expectations for Paris: A real unknown quantity for me, finals would be a proper upset
Zélia Avezou (FRA)
- Sister of Sam from the men's list
- A few good European and Youth results, then the odd boulder final/lead semi final in the big ones, including a couple of 4ths
- Finishing ahead of the vastly more experienced Manon Hily and Helene Janicot to fill the second French slot was a big achievement at OQS
Expectations for Paris: Doubt she will make finals, but you'd never bet against an athlete in front of their home crowd
Camilla Moroni (ITA)
- Picked up her first boulder world cup medal in April, after numerous finals
- Fewer lead semi finals
- Quite varied performances overall, so whereas others always deliver, she'll be needing to find some form at the right time
Expectations for Paris: No finals would be my guess
Laura Rogora (ITA)
- 15th in Tokyo 2020
- A superb route climber, winning numerous medals in 2021/22 but settling to consistent semi-finalist and occasional finalist since
- Only made a few finals in boulder
- Lacks the power needed for modern boulders, but that doesn't necessarily stop her - such as skipping a swinging kick dyno by static-ing off a foothold this weekend in Budapest
Expectations for Paris: Similar to Mia, I'd be surprised if she can get into finals but somewhere near or above her previous Olympic result would be good, especially since her form has dropped marginally since then
Molly Thompson-Smith (GBR)
- Remarkable recovery from an ankle break to snatch the last Olympic spot
- Consistently up towards the finals spots in lead world cups, but often falling short - an unfortunate number of 9th positions
- Boulder semi finals are a rarity, meaning she'll need a good lead round to stand any chance of progressing
Expectations for Paris: Not sure she's got the recent results to justify a finals prediction, but if the route setting swings in the favour of lead climbers, she will be there to capitalise
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Looking back through my expectations, I'll summarise some finalist predictions (in no particular order):
Men's final: Jakob/Tomoa/Toby/Sorato/Lee/Adam/Sam/Colin
Women's final: Janja/Jessica/Ai/Natalia/Oriane/Brooke/Seo/Erin
If I even get 4/8 per final I'll be happy, there are a lot of people who could nick a spot!
