[Ged]

Poor Harry. That'll haunt him forever.

[jwi]

Poor Harry. That'll haunt him forever.

This is another of the many things I do not understand about football. About 24% of penalties taken at the highest level does not result in a goal. It should not be that big of a deal to miss a penalty if it happens one times out of four?

[cheque]

This is such a “why try and climb up the cliff when there’s an easy way round the back?” question but the answer is that It’s more about the context than the statistical probability. Even if it was, Kane only fails to score about 16% of his penalties so it’s more remarkable in this case than most.

[Stuart Anderson]

They threw up one of those info-graphics on screen last night that showed Kane's preference for right-hand side of the goal. Lloris will have known this being club mates which is why I presume the GK went left on the first penalty (goalie trying to double bluff him maybe  ).

Perhaps Kane knew he had to do something really different (pretty sure the info-graphic showed none down the middle) and that added pressure got to him.

Add in he was chasing Rooney's record...

[Ged]

Poor Harry. That'll haunt him forever.

This is another of the many things I do not understand about football. About 24% of penalties taken at the highest level does not result in a goal. It should not be that big of a deal to miss a penalty if it happens one times out of four?

I think you're right in that you no not understand.

[jwi]

This is such a “why try and climb up the cliff when there’s an easy way round the back?” question ...

Fair enough, I suspected as much.

So to sum up: sometimes you miss penalties, but if you do in a high-stakes situation it is because you have moral deficits? (I am pretty sure that shame is the result of transgressing moral norms)

{I should probably stop trolling. Sorry. I am bored}

[Ged]

Does your 25% stat include shootouts? It seems very low if that's in normal time. Someone like kane woukd be fully expected to score that, but at the same time everyone recognises that the bigger the stakes, the more likely he is to miss. That's one of the reasons people are interested in it I guess.

And the stakes didn't come much bigger than last night. Near the end of the game, your team is on the ascendency and woukd have a high chance of going on to win, relatively easy opposition in the next round, potential for first World Cup final in 60 years. You've already scored one in that game, so do you put it in the same place or go the other side. Add in the fact that the keeper facing you is usually your team mate and you train together all the time.

All you've got to do is boot it into the net. Easy eh? If he'd done what he does 95% of the time, you're a national hero forever. If you don't your team fails again. I can see why that will haunt him.

[jwi]

Does your 25% stat include shootouts? It seems very low if that's in normal time.

In shootouts there are slightly better scores than during match time. Around 77% success on the first 5 shots, then significantly worse after (duh...). (Fun fact: The german player Max Kruse has taken 33 penalties and scored on 32 of them in his entire career. I think that is mostly down to luck. And being left-footed.)

I still suspect penalties are better understood as a Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies than as a form or morality play. (I read this paper: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/00028280260344678 a long time ago and have not kept up with recent developments, but I was pretty convinced at the time).

[SA Chris]

Yes, brilliant for them. A historic moment for African football.

And no opposition player has got a goal past them in the tournament yet.

Be great if they get further, but going to be tough.

[jwi]

Apparently Mr. Kane has scored on 58 out of 69 penalties taken, making him clearly better than the average professional attacking player at this skill, so the chance of missing one or both penalties is approximately 1 – (58/69)^2 = 29%*. That's surely in the "shit happens" category? I would certainly not start up on a long route if I judged that there was a 30% chance of getting hit by a thunderstorm.

* Assuming that the events are independent.

[SA Chris]

Yes, brilliant for them. A historic moment for African football.

And no opposition player has got a goal past them in the tournament yet.

Whereas France have conceded at least one goal in every match (according to resident Statto).

[TobyD]

Kane was clearly the best bet for that penalty, he's more experienced than most of the rest of the team, he's almost England's most prolific goal scorer ever, and has probably taken more before. He and Southgate should obviously stay at the head of the England team.

[Ged]

Apparently Mr. Kane has scored on 58 out of 69 penalties taken, making him clearly better than the average professional attacking player at this skill, so the chance of missing one or both penalties is approximately 1 – (58/69)^2 = 29%*. That's surely in the "shit happens" category? I would certainly not start up on a long route if I judged that there was a 30% chance of getting hit by a thunderstorm.

* Assuming that the events are independent.

The difference being you can decide to not set off up the route, but you kind of have to take the penalty. Or you'd certainly be foolish to not bother.

[tommytwotone]

Plus, it was his second in the same match - and against a goalkeeper who he plays club football with, so you'd expect knows his / his "tells" better than most.

I can't imagine the pressure of the first one, let alone the second one. I mean what do you do - send it the same side as the first one, go the other way, belt it down the middle, panenka?

There's a good BBC doc at the moment called something like "How To Win The World Cup" where a lot of the people interviewed say that as well as being good etc, you also need everything to go your way. I think the sad fact was that on Saturday a lot of things didn't go our way.

[JamieG]

belt it down the middle

I always surprised how few penalties seem to be a smash straight down the middle. The keeper is almost always going to dive one way or the other. Surely this is a 'relatively' safe bet, unless you always do it, in which case the keeper will know that's your thing.

[SA Chris]

I think Croatians put 2 down the middle?

[JamieG]

I think Croatians put 2 down the middle?

Haha, and look how they are getting on. Science! 

[tommytwotone]

Sure I heard / read something that said that statistically, the keep is more likely going to dive one way or the other because they want to "make a save", so smashing it down the middle is the best thing to do.

The only thing that puts players off doing it is the potential humiliation / fallout if you do that and the keeper doesn't dive.

[sdm]

Kane was clearly the best bet for that penalty, he's more experienced than most of the rest of the team, he's almost England's most prolific goal scorer ever, and has probably taken more before. He and Southgate should obviously stay at the head of the England team.

The Real Science of Sport Podcast did an episode on penalties recently. Apparently experience is negatively correlated with success on high pressure penalties and the success rate of top players goes down as they progress through their careers.

The hypothesis was that there is less expectation with the younger players so they feel less pressure.

[sdm]

Plus, it was his second in the same match - and against a goalkeeper who he plays club football with, so you'd expect knows his / his "tells" better than most.

I can't imagine the pressure of the first one, let alone the second one. I mean what do you do - send it the same side as the first one, go the other way, belt it down the middle, panenka?

Both the taker and the goalkeeper will have already decided before the match where they are going to go for a first, second and third penalty.

[spidermonkey09]

Kane was clearly the best bet for that penalty, he's more experienced than most of the rest of the team, he's almost England's most prolific goal scorer ever, and has probably taken more before. He and Southgate should obviously stay at the head of the England team.

The Real Science of Sport Podcast did an episode on penalties recently. Apparently experience is negatively correlated with success on high pressure penalties and the success rate of top players goes down as they progress through their careers.

The hypothesis was that there is less expectation with the younger players so they feel less pressure.

It was the younguns that missed in the Euros final though, so who knows.

At least Kane put his foot through it, better than a weak side foot. It had conviction at least!

[wasbeen]

I can't remember a more entertaining period of English sport. The football (men's and womans) and the cricket in particular are an order of magnitude better than the turgid meekness of the past. Caring about winning or losing is so passe 

[TobyD]

I can't remember a more entertaining period of English sport. The football (men's and womans) and the cricket in particular are an order of magnitude better than the turgid meekness of the past. Caring about winning or losing is so passe 

British cyclists are pretty good too!

[TobyD]

Kane was clearly the best bet for that penalty, he's more experienced than most of the rest of the team, he's almost England's most prolific goal scorer ever, and has probably taken more before. He and Southgate should obviously stay at the head of the England team.

The Real Science of Sport Podcast did an episode on penalties recently. Apparently experience is negatively correlated with success on high pressure penalties and the success rate of top players goes down as they progress through their careers.

The hypothesis was that there is less expectation with the younger players so they feel less pressure.

Interesting. Or that they have had fewer opportunities to miss yet?

[JamieG]

Kane was clearly the best bet for that penalty, he's more experienced than most of the rest of the team, he's almost England's most prolific goal scorer ever, and has probably taken more before. He and Southgate should obviously stay at the head of the England team.

The Real Science of Sport Podcast did an episode on penalties recently. Apparently experience is negatively correlated with success on high pressure penalties and the success rate of top players goes down as they progress through their careers.

The hypothesis was that there is less expectation with the younger players so they feel less pressure.

Interesting. Or that they have had fewer opportunities to miss yet?

I wonder if it has something to do with regression to the mean (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean). If you took a group of young football players and got them taking penalties for their teams the ones that were above expected average (by chance) would get to keep taking them. Whereas the ones that missed more (by chance) would be stopped. Over time through their careers however the ones that were more successful at first will tend towards their average. Whereas the initially unsuccessful players don’t get the chance to improve.

Caveat: this obviously removes all other factors, such as training, age, stress, experience etc but it’s interesting how often regression to mean crops up.