[andy popp]

Cheers Pete. No, I didn't think you were trying to make it left/right (and I wasn't either). I'm fascinated/horrified by the ways politics (if we can even call them that now) are morphing beyond all recognition at the moment.

[DAVETHOMAS90]

Hi Pete.

Good you watched the video.

"How completely wrong was the prof about a subject he's supposedly a specialist in. Which should make you pause and question what else might he may end up being completely wrong about... academics aren't future-knowers."

I was looking at similarities between Georgia and Ukraine originally, when I found his lecture.

Completely correct about none of us being future-knowers unfortunately! 
You'll know very well, the difference between making the right call on a position, and the end result P/L.

We have a lot more invested in this crisis than we admit in my opinion, and the piece in the Guardian puts things quite well too. It's also interesting to note the political situation/view in Georgia now.

It's very easy to polarize a crisis like this.

[Fiend]

https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7dqem/putin-new-world-order-ukraine-conspiracy

“Ukraine falls, and it will, it is the end of the New World Order,” wrote someone on that Telegram channel. “Believe it or not, Putin is a white hat and working to take down satanists, corruption, bio weapons sites, and the New World Order,” wrote another. “Mainstream media is not your friend.”

Was that one of your investor bros, Pete?!

[DAVETHOMAS90]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-59763185

Division is the problem very often.
Fucking awful video to watch.

[andy popp]

It's very easy to polarize a crisis like this.

Sometimes with good reason.

[petejh]

https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7dqem/putin-new-world-order-ukraine-conspiracy

“Ukraine falls, and it will, it is the end of the New World Order,” wrote someone on that Telegram channel. “Believe it or not, Putin is a white hat and working to take down satanists, corruption, bio weapons sites, and the New World Order,” wrote another. “Mainstream media is not your friend.”

Was that one of your investor bros, Pete?!

Not liking your use of the term 'bros' there Mat!

But yes, I've seen that sort of sentiment expressed by some people on investment chat groups on telegram - although I'm sure the madness is also expressed among groups of people with all sorts of interests. And it's in a minority, but that minority is disturbingly large. As Andy P says above it's both fascinating and horrifying to observe how people's minds are working overtime to try to make sense of world events these days. I have various theories on why a lot of people seem to be so utterly twisted out of reality right now, along the lines of something to do with bad-news information overload and searching for a sense of control.

[DAVETHOMAS90]

It's very easy to polarize a crisis like this.

Sometimes with good reason.

It's the antithesis of reason  like trying to fit politics into a L/R spectrum.

[seankenny]

In terms of being twisted out of reality this story, which I suspect you’ve all seen, is as out there as anything I’ve seen:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600487

[petejh]

It's very easy to polarize a crisis like this.

Why would you - as in you specifically - *not* polarise Russia invading Ukraine? This is not anywhere near as ambiguous a moral judgement as you're trying to make it seem.

We have a lot more invested in this crisis than we admit in my opinion, and the piece in the Guardian puts things quite well too.

There's always more to things in global politics and power struggles than governments 'admit' to the public. For one thing, due to the particular mix of commodity exports of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine unless this conflict miraculously simmers down very quickly, or the west carve out certain commodities from sanctions - which I’m sure everyone would quite rightly rail against as weak and immoral - then we're going to suffer a global food crisis this year the like we haven't known in our lifetimes - think starvations on a massive scale among poorer countries unable to afford the fertilisers that will have been priced out of their reach due to shortages and hoarding by richer countries. Russia knows it's coming and I'm sure western govs know it too, and it's another part of the balance of power in favour of Russian aggression. You'll know about it later this year when your coffee, pasta and bread cost-increases start to resemble that of your gas bill. But I suppose this will be the west’s fault for making Russia do it.

[lagerstarfish]

I had a few minutes spare during my lunch break today, so I had a look at what QAnon fans are saying about the Ukraine situation.
Trump and Putin are working together to save us all, apparently.

[mrjonathanr]

You'll know about it later this year when your coffee, pasta and bread cost-increases start to resemble that of your gas bill.

Wheat flour is traded daily globally and prices fluctuate daily, you may know. It has been so unstable this week that some major companies have been unable to quote prices to their customers.

[petejh]

Yup. It's the same story all over the commodities space - the agriculturals, base metals, precious metals, energy, virtually all are inflating in price hugely as markets rerate to a new pricing model based on this massive shock to supply.
The major economies are possibly entering not just a period of inflation, but quite possibly hyperinflation and then stagnation, as a recession probably begins in the next quarter which possibly then turns to a depression if events unfold in a certain direction (e.g. sanctions on Russian oil/gas).
I've been interested in commodities / natural resources investment for the last 20 years or so, and it's starting to feel like a bitter irony that these last two years have been by far the most profitable, and with this year now looking set for commodities to go parabolic on the back of global upheaval as countries struggle to adapt to events. Putin's empire building is enabled by Russia being able to take advantage of its status as a commodity superpower in a period of natural resource shortages brought about by the global energy transition required by climate change, and made worse by supply/demand imbalances caused by the shutting down of production over 2020-21 followed by everything being in shortage just when demand increases as the world comes out of the pandemic. Over reliance on Putin's Russia for commodities, as much as anything the 'west have done wrong to provoke Russia', is the enabler of conflict here.

[Moo]

I’d be interested to hear where people stand on dividing Putins decisions from the civilian population of Russia. 

As an example Russian athletes are now being banned from events which some are understandably claiming is unfair.

I think to get the message across then you have to treat Russia as one entity and then perhaps the populace will take a stand.

This throws up the obvious issues around hypocrisy as there plenty of countries engaged in unjust wars which we are still doing business with.

[Fiend]

I think to get the message across then you have to treat Russia as one entity and then perhaps the populace will take a stand.

Despite the logic to that, it's becoming increasingly difficult:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60640204
https://www.vice.com/en/article/xgdmdn/russian-law-fifteen-years-jail-tweeting-ukraine-war

[DAVETHOMAS90]

Putin's empire building is enabled by Russia being able to take advantage of its status as a commodity superpower .. Over reliance on Putin's Russia for commodities, as much as anything the 'west have done wrong to provoke Russia', is the enabler of conflict here.

That doesn't follow Pete, and implies that this is all about empire building, defending against Putin the Great.
We can either work towards better relations in Europe and around the world, or create division.
The former was something that Putin wanted; the latter is something we've ably demonstrated ourselves.

As Moo refs in his post, we are quick to assess our investment in other conflicts, as long as we keep the blood off our own hands.

None of this is to support the action of Putin now, or to fail to recognise the humanitarian crisis, but to try to wrap things up into a singular driving force/cause is also to not consider what we might be able to do.

For me, Johnson's hard words have a hollowness about them that echoes those of Trump, and which I think say something about what he is afraid of losing. (Sorry, but I can't pay attention to anything he says.)

[Will Hunt]

We can either work towards better relations in Europe and around the world, or create division.
The former was something that Putin wanted

Jesus fucking Christ, Dave. I'd love to see you evidence this.
When did Putin offer the hand of friendship? Was it the cyber attacks? Was it the interference in our democracy? Was it when his agents popped a huge quantity of an extremely deadly nerve agent into a charity collection bin?

[spidermonkey09]

and implies that this is all about empire building, defending against Putin the Great.

That is precisely what motivates Putin. Despite your ever tighter hairpin turns attempting to "both sides" this. There's a point to be made about whether NATO strategy was perfect, particularly in the 90s I think, but if you think Putin wants "better relations around the world" you're deluded. Presumably you've seen photographs of Aleppo and Grozny?

[DAVETHOMAS90]

Would be interesting to know the full extent of this.

We can either work towards better relations in Europe and around the world, or create division.
The former was something that Putin wanted

Jesus fucking Christ, Dave. I'd love to see you evidence this.
When did Putin offer the hand of friendship? Was it the cyber attacks? Was it the interference in our democracy? Was it when his agents popped a huge quantity of an extremely deadly nerve agent into a charity collection bin?

Review some of the posts earlier Will. It was also something covered very well in the media previously.

[mrjonathanr]

We can either work towards better relations in Europe and around the world, or create division.

1990 would have been an excellent time to push harder for this. But we are here, today, and the Russian attack in Ukraine is both unprovoked and targeted on civilians. Think about it; currently the targets of Russian bombs are unarmed women and children. These are war crimes. If extensive and deliberate strategy, crimes against humanity.

There’s no room for moral ambiguity in that. We need cool heads to make policy decisions, unswayed by emotion, but if those actions can’t be classed as evil, what can?

[DAVETHOMAS90]

We can either work towards better relations in Europe and around the world, or create division.

1990 would have been an excellent time to push harder for this. But we are here, today, and the Russian attack in Ukraine is both unprovoked and targeted on civilians. Think about it; currently the targets of Russian bombs are unarmed women and children. These are war crimes. If extensive and deliberate strategy, crimes against humanity.

There’s no room for moral ambiguity in that. We need cool heads to make policy decisions, unswayed by emotion, but if those actions can’t be classed as evil, what can?

Does any of this echo that?:

"None of this is to support the action of Putin now, or to fail to recognise the humanitarian crisis, but to try to wrap things up into a singular driving force/cause is also to not consider what we might be able to do.

For me, Johnson's hard words have a hollowness about them that echoes those of Trump, and which I think say something about what he is afraid of losing. (Sorry, but I can't pay attention to anything he says.)"

I also don't think that labelling things as "evil" actually helps. I think we are blind to our own interests, and the part they play both historically and now.

[abarro81]

I echo Will's sentiment.. DT you're down the rabbit hole

[Will Hunt]

Get to fuck, Dave. The guy puts kids in body bags for a laugh. To wring your hands about Johnson in the same sentence is to have no sense of proportion.

[DAVETHOMAS90]

I don't think so.

I'm also not convinced by NATO's position on this with regard to intervention.

I stand by my comments regarding our own interests, and to any extent that our own sanctions and actions are weakened, is only amplified by your own own view.

I think to try to claim that I'm making some sort of relative judgement between Johnson and Vladimir Putin's actions is absurd. I am however asking "In what areas are we not looking towards what we can do to help?".

[Wellsy]

There are a lot of things that have led to modern Russia and some of those things in the 90s came from the "West" or could potentially have been ameliorated by the same. NATO expansion has polarised the region, but there is a good reason why countries want to be in NATO too.

Ultimately though the big thing leading to this invasion imo is the irredentist, imperialist, authoritarian and violent politics of the Russian gov combined with perceived Ukrainian vulnerability (I.e they are not in NATO, we can roll them, let's go in). I don't think it's reasonable to blame anyone other than the bastards running the show in Moscow for that, and as shit as Johnson is... Putin is another level.

NATOs position on staying out of it seems good to me. Global Thermonuclear War is at risk, after all.

[spidermonkey09]

Moral relativist bollocks Dave.

That said, because I like being wound up on a Sunday evening... What do you think Nato should do?