[Oldmanmatt]

One nation will receive global support and aid, one, will not.

The Ukrainians are certainly giving the Russians a headache and holding their feet to the fire:
https://www.instagram.com/tv/CaiHLjFp-ZX/?utm_medium=copy_link

Yes, the TikTok vid was a “joke”. Poor taste, I know, my only defence is that I am military and we’re all a bit odd.

[mrjonathanr]

For sure there is a lot more hope for Ukraine than there was 5 days ago. However -and whatever logistical difficulties the Russian advance may struggle with- there is still a lot of Russian personnel and arms heading into Ukraine. I think there are bleak moments ahead.

[petejh]

It’s a war. Of course there are bleak moments ahead! Russian troops will be facing them too.

Even if they do manage to roll over the Ukrainian regular army - not certain anymore - Russian troops will discover how difficult it is for a conventional army facing a hostile population fighting for their country’s survival and supplied with western finance, real-time western intelligence and modern weapons.

Russia won’t be able to shut down communications in Ukraine like they could if it was their own population they were trying to subdue - western backers are going to make sure communications remain available to Ukrainians.

Also I think significant numbers of non-state combatants are going to alter the balance of power here - ironically the cynical and opaque non-state actor model of ‘doing’ war that Russia perfected, is about to provide Russia a nasty dose of their own poison.

[DAVETHOMAS90]

One nation will receive global support and aid, one, will not.

The Ukrainians are certainly giving the Russians a headache and holding their feet to the fire:
https://www.instagram.com/tv/CaiHLjFp-ZX/?utm_medium=copy_link

Yes, the TikTok vid was a “joke”. Poor taste, I know, my only defence is that I am military and we’re all a bit odd.

That's another problem of course isn't it, but necessary in the shorter term. Some sources are claiming that support in Russia for the action is as low as 10%.

The Twitter video post/reference isn't something you need to defend. How many people check the stats first? Also, the mood on the ground in terms of morale is as much valued commentary as anything else (when it isn't a year out of date ).

Interesting also to consider how other "economies" are affected by the crisis - including how that affects the independence of reporting.

[Oldmanmatt]

One nation will receive global support and aid, one, will not.

The Ukrainians are certainly giving the Russians a headache and holding their feet to the fire:
https://www.instagram.com/tv/CaiHLjFp-ZX/?utm_medium=copy_link

Yes, the TikTok vid was a “joke”. Poor taste, I know, my only defence is that I am military and we’re all a bit odd.

That's another problem of course isn't it, but necessary in the shorter term. Some sources are claiming that support in Russia for the action is as low as 10%.

The Twitter video post/reference isn't something you need to defend. How many people check the stats first? Also, the mood on the ground in terms of morale is as much valued commentary as anything else (when it isn't a year out of date ).

Interesting also to consider how other "economies" are affected by the crisis - including how that affects the independence of reporting.

I’m amazed by the reporting. It often amounts to quite good intelligence reports of Russian dispositions and very little the other way around. Russia simply has no support at all.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-invasion-satellite-images-show-40-mile-long-convoy-of-russian-military-vehicles-closing-in-on-kyiv-12554512

[northern yob]

Well here we go! I get the feeling things are about to get ramped up considerably. Ukrainian resistance has obviously been heroic to say the least. What we are potentially about to see in Kyiv is going to make for uncomfortable watching (I wish I could ignore it, but I’m strangely compelled to watch).

I think there’s no chance that Pootin can win in the long term, in the short term, he’s gonna try to break them. I’m struck by the resolve of the Ukrainian people, it’s the kind of thing that comes when your back is to the wall and it’s do or die ( which it obviously is).

Whilst I was critical of the wests lack of action at the start of this, I think the sanctions are fairly comprehensive and will start to have serious repercussions for Russia at home and abroad. Russia’s overall position looks weak in the long term.

I’m sure talk of a no fly zone isn’t done, and once the Russians start to level Kyiv it might become a serious possibility (I don’t think it will become reality) if I believed in god I’d be praying for them.

This isn’t going to be over any time soon is it??

[spidermonkey09]

People proposing a no fly zone are batshit. Thankfully there is currently only a very small chance of it happening, which is just as well.

[Wellsy]

Nobody is going to win this war. Certainly not Russia which will see hyperinflation and complete economic collapse. Certainly not Ukraine which will see enormous loss of civilian lives and medium to large size loss of territory.

To clarify what I mean; a victory for Russia would mean both a military win and a political settlement allowing them to occupy. This would require a pet gov which shares Putin's view of Ukraine being inherently Russia aligned with no drive for Ukrainian nationalism that has some form of popular support due to Ukrainian Nationalism collapsing in crisis.

Even if Russia can get a military win, I think its overwhelmingly clear that Ukrainian Nationalism has never been more alive and the identity of Ukrainians as Ukrainian has been reinforced by the narrative of the invasion. The Russians can't win. By invading they've essentially galvanised the very nationalist cause they don't believe should exist.

Ukraine as a country has dark times ahead of course but Moscow isn't absorbing Ukraine into an east Slav neo-Russian Empire now.

[rginns]

Well said Wellsy, nothing like an invasion to galvanise such a fierce resistance. Utter insanity.
I can't see it going any other way than a war of attrition.
Russia has already lost morally and economically.
Even if they pull out now, no right thinking country will trust Putin again on the world stage. He's finished.

[SA Chris]

Agree, and as some one mentioned earlier, occupying a nation that is hostilely opposed to being occupied has never ended well. 

[TobyD]

https://open.spotify.com/episode/4cUpwLd2S3RBNHb877Tw2s?si=G-8Cb7sRR2mNDcngHKZXmw&utm_source=copy-link

Re sanctions, the above interview is really interesting. 99%of the wealth in Russia is in the hands of about 500 people, most of that held off shore.

[Will Hunt]

People proposing a no fly zone are batshit. Thankfully there is currently only a very small chance of it happening, which is just as well.

NATO countries have been supplying arms to the Ukranians. Maybe it's a silly idea, but is there a possiblity that nations will loan a load of jets and drones to Moldova and letting them enforce it?

I'm not suggesting this would happen, just wondering whether this would trigger the world-ending Article whatever-it-was?

[SA Chris]

https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-lavrov-says-there-is-danger-ukraine-acquiring-nuclear-weapons-2022-03-01/

Next line of defense. Have to wonder if theses guys actually believe what they are saying, or if they say it because their leader told them to..

[Moo]

It may have been as indirect as possible but American pilots did fly against Russian pilots during the Korean War. That only serves to say that these countries have fought air battles without it turning into a nuclear war.


Different situation I suppose though and maybe Putin is less stable than the leaders of Russia at that time.

[seankenny]

Different situation I suppose though and maybe Putin is less stable than the leaders of Russia at that time.

For most of that time the Soviet leader was Stalin, in his decrepit, getting drunk, being paranoid and launching anti-Semitic purges phase.

[jwi]

The argument that NATO should not intervene because of risk of 3rd world war/nuclear annihilation makes no sense to me. That’s pretty much an admission that remaining NATO countries will not intervene if Poland, or more likely Lithuania is attacked. If Ukrainian lives are not worth the risk, surely no civilian lives are worth the risk.

If the argument is that NATO should never intervene when non-NATO members (like Sweden or Finland) are attacked, then this should be clearly spelled out.

[mrjonathanr]

I think events will test this to breaking point. Losing will be an existential threat to Putin and the strategy to bomb into submission may be the only route to victory he can see as viable. How far will NATO countries allow that to go without intervening directly?

[jwi]

It is pretty clear to me that Kiev, with 3 million inhabitants will be razed to the ground. Why else would there be a 40 miles long convoy of tanks and artillery heading towards a city of no particular military value? Hundreds of thousands of civilian lives will be lost.

[mrjonathanr]

So we are to be reminded of Sarajevo? Putin is a lot more powerful than Milosevic.

[danm]

It is pretty clear to me that Kiev, with 3 million inhabitants will be razed to the ground. Why else would there be a 40 miles long convoy of tanks and artillery heading towards a city of no particular military value? Hundreds of thousands of civilian lives will be lost.

Apparently, that convoy is mainly resupply trucks and is spread out because quite a few have broken down. It still looks bad for Kyiv but the Russian's do appear to have had as many issues with logistics as they have dealing with the strong defence put up by the Ukraine military so their priority is likely to get food, fuel and ammunition to their troops who have stalled badly for want of all three.

[Bradders]

It is pretty clear to me that Kiev, with 3 million inhabitants will be razed to the ground. Why else would there be a 40 miles long convoy of tanks and artillery heading towards a city of no particular military value? Hundreds of thousands of civilian lives will be lost.

Terrible military planning and execution?

I'm no expert, but it strikes me as a pretty bad idea to queue all your assets up in a nice neat line along an obvious route to a known destination, especially with the Ukrainian air force still active.

I get the point though, it's not a good sign at all.

[mrjonathanr]

On the matter of NATO’s involvement, another very interesting thread from @kamilkazani
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498693996876546052

Total contempt for Dominic Cummings’ position. An interesting read.

[jwi]

https://www.rferl.org/a/checnhnya-grozny-before-after/26733810.html

This is what happened and what will happen again, on a much larger scale. Many reports of heavy shelling in Kyiv right now.

[DAVETHOMAS90]

Worth reflecting on the similarities between what happened in Georgia, and the calls for help from the west by Zelenskyy.

@ 17'



It's very easy for us to accept the polarising arguments of freedom vs oppression.
It's important to be remember how selective we can be when listening to impassioned pleas from our side of that divide.

Help for the humanitarian crisis can't afford to be seen to be flying a flag of either colour.

It's also important to think seriously about how useful it is for us to be able to paint the crisis in such a polarised way. How interested are we genuinely in the humanitarian impact.

I'm not talking about how "you and I" feel in response, but in the arguments we accept.

[Oldmanmatt]

Worth reflecting on the similarities between what happened in Georgia, and the calls for help from the west by Zelenskyy.

@ 17'



It's very easy for us to accept the polarising arguments of freedom vs oppression.
It's important to be remember how selective we can be when listening to impassioned pleas from our side of that divide.

Help for the humanitarian crisis can't afford to be seen to be flying a flag of either colour.

It's also important to think seriously about how useful it is for us to be able to paint the crisis in such a polarised way. How interested are we genuinely in the humanitarian impact.

I'm not talking about how "you and I" feel in response, but in the arguments we accept.