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Russia/Ukraine (Read 64734 times)

DAVETHOMAS90

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Russia/Ukraine
February 21, 2022, 08:04:12 pm
Boris has aspirations of emulating Churchill, when the irony is that he's more likely to be found dead in his bunker.

Remember, you read it here first  ;)




Russia ‘must fail and be seen to fail’ if it invades Ukraine, says Johnson - is the most worrying of statements issued so far.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2022, 09:47:59 am by Bonjoy »

petejh

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#1 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 21, 2022, 10:26:47 pm
Quote
Russia ‘must fail and be seen to fail’ if it invades Ukraine, says Johnson - is the most worrying of statements issued so far.

...
Because?

DAVETHOMAS90

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#2 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 22, 2022, 01:29:17 am
Because, for Johnson, Russia being "seen to fail" is nothing to do with what would lead to a better situation in the longer term (think post Versailles), and all about putting people in their place.

Consider, for instance, if any of those people whom covid legislation applied to were seen to break the rules, then he'd want them to be seen to be punished for presuming a degree of entitlement beyond their station.

What we need is for Russia to not invade Ukraine, not to put her in her place.

It's a ridiculous and damaging rhetoric, which is more about Boris' posturing (along with his other allusions to WWII) than it is a route to more diplomacy.

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#3 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 22, 2022, 06:38:28 am
Because, for Johnson, Russia being "seen to fail" is nothing to do with what would lead to a better situation in the longer term (think post Versailles), and all about putting people in their place.

Consider, for instance, if any of those people whom covid legislation applied to were seen to break the rules, then he'd want them to be seen to be punished for presuming a degree of entitlement beyond their station.

What we need is for Russia to not invade Ukraine, not to put her in her place.

It's a ridiculous and damaging rhetoric, which is more about Boris' posturing (along with his other allusions to WWII) than it is a route to more diplomacy.

Dude, Russia moved troops into Ukraine last night.
Putin laughs at people like you (laughs at Boris too).

DAVETHOMAS90

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#4 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 22, 2022, 07:31:31 am
Yes, I'm aware of that. But the rhetoric of "being seen to have failed" is dangerous nonsense.

Are we now going to suddenly start giving Boris credibility?

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#5 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 22, 2022, 07:40:50 am
Passing over the covid regulations analogy...

How would you suggest the west simply persuade Russia not to invade then?

To me it seems pretty clear that some sort of western response is necessary. The west can't cajole and ask Putin nicely not to invade, the aim is to hurt the Russian economy enough as to make it not worth continuing. I don't see how we get the desired outcome without some fairly tough rhetoric, sanctions and yes, russia failing.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2022, 07:52:39 am by spidermonkey09 »

SA Chris

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#6 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 22, 2022, 09:18:41 am
Sanction on energy imports will really hurt Russia, and I can't see that happening, potentially more damaging for UK. Expect Brent to go well over $100 a barrel and fuel bills to go even higher than expected.

petejh

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#7 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 22, 2022, 09:49:20 am
Yes, I'm aware of that. But the rhetoric of "being seen to have failed" is dangerous nonsense.

Are we now going to suddenly start giving Boris credibility?

Your conception of dangerous nonsense is 'interesting', and your lack of any ire for Russia's action is notable.

Bullies push until they hit resistance - in this case of Russian bullying the only 'sensible' resistance open to the West is economic rather than overtly violent. But severe economic sanctions on Russia are self-harming to all of us - when you deal with the devil in a global marketplace etc... Fertiliser production, heating, manufacturing input costs, any number of downstream harmful consequences will result for us as a result of harming Russia's exports. Especially in this moment of attempted energy transition and market volatility after recovery from a pandemic.
There'll no doubt be some covert violence involved too. If Russia invade the whole of Ukraine, then nobody should be surprised when the West's long-term outlook changes to using background means to turn Ukraine into Russia's next 'Afghanistan' (if Russia hadn't already had one Afghanistan). Hence potential for making it the worst conflict in Europe since WWII. It's win-win for a leader who doesn't care much for human rights and a bit of 'dangerous nonsense'.

Don't worry you'll still be able to call Boris an ass despite bigger assholes in the world doing bad things.

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#8 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 22, 2022, 10:01:34 am
Any diplomacy towards Russia, though well intentioned and to some extent necessary, was always going to be rather ineffectual.  Putin is autocrat who will please himself in any case. I'd expect fuel prices to rise considerably whatever sanctions are used because of the instability of the situation. 
Its difficult to know how you can deal with someone like Putin, short of actually taking serious large scale military action which is basically unthinkable.  I'm sure Boris Johnson is delighted with the international crisis,  as it keeps partygate off the front pages,  and makes it harder for Conservative MPs to depose him in the middle of such events. 
Hes done what hes always done about Ukraine,  which is making pretentious windbag speeches and try to take the credit for what other people are doing.  (See also the bicycle scheme in London,  the 2012 Olympics,  the vaccine rollout)

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#9 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 22, 2022, 05:09:28 pm
Yes, I'm aware of that. But the rhetoric of "being seen to have failed" is dangerous nonsense.

Are we now going to suddenly start giving Boris credibility?

Your conception of dangerous nonsense is 'interesting', and your lack of any ire for Russia's action is notable.

Bullies push until they hit resistance - in this case of Russian bullying the only 'sensible' resistance open to the West is economic rather than overtly violent. But severe economic sanctions on Russia are self-harming to all of us - when you deal with the devil in a global marketplace etc... Fertiliser production, heating, manufacturing input costs, any number of downstream harmful consequences will result for us as a result of harming Russia's exports. Especially in this moment of attempted energy transition and market volatility after recovery from a pandemic.
There'll no doubt be some covert violence involved too. If Russia invade the whole of Ukraine, then nobody should be surprised when the West's long-term outlook changes to using background means to turn Ukraine into Russia's next 'Afghanistan' (if Russia hadn't already had one Afghanistan). Hence potential for making it the worst conflict in Europe since WWII. It's win-win for a leader who doesn't care much for human rights and a bit of 'dangerous nonsense'.

Don't worry you'll still be able to call Boris an ass despite bigger assholes in the world doing bad things.

This.

With bells on.

DAVETHOMAS90

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#10 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 22, 2022, 08:50:16 pm
Yes, I'm aware of that. But the rhetoric of "being seen to have failed" is dangerous nonsense.

Are we now going to suddenly start giving Boris credibility?

Your conception of dangerous nonsense is 'interesting', and your lack of any ire for Russia's action is notable.



FFS.

All I'm referring to is Boris Johnson not being the best person to rely on when dealing with difficult situations like this.
Please don't try to derive some other non-sense about my "lack of any ire for Russia's action".   :wall:

It's precisely because it's such a critical situation, that I'm so concerned about Bo Jo's rhetoric.

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#11 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 22, 2022, 09:01:08 pm
Have to say I am with DT on this. No one sane doubts the need to stand up to Russian pressure but Johnson is about as far away from being all over the detail and heeding expert advice as it is possible to be. Wholly unsuited to managing any crisis.

I fully believe he’d push to commit troops if he thought it would reflect well on him, without the slightest interest in or grasp of possible consequences. If that sounds harsh, the only evidence I can offer is his entire career. Of course, he may prove shrewd and prudent, but past behaviour does not point that way. This has nothing to do with domestic politics, but he is the last leader I want to hear spouting about this crisis.

DAVETHOMAS90

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#12 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 22, 2022, 09:15:56 pm
Have to say I am with DT on this. No one sane doubts the need to stand up to Russian pressure but Johnson is about as far away from being all over the detail and heeding expert advice as it is possible to be. Wholly unsuited to managing any crisis.

I fully believe he’d push to commit troops if he thought it would reflect well on him, without the slightest interest in or grasp of possible consequences. If that sounds harsh, the only evidence I can offer is his entire career. Of course, he may prove shrewd and prudent, but past behaviour does not point that way. This has nothing to do with domestic politics, but he is the last leader I want to hear spouting about this crisis.

"I fully believe he’d push to commit troops if he thought it would reflect well on him, without the slightest interest in or grasp of possible consequences."

Exactly. Unfortunately.

I think you can almost hear him praying that it will happen.

SA Chris

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#13 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 23, 2022, 08:05:14 am
He'll do whatever the US does.

petejh

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#14 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 23, 2022, 10:18:29 am
If the western military engaged with Russia over this then it’s likely WWIII would shortly follow. And you think bojo doesn’t have the slightest grasp of this. I think you’re completely mad to think that. But I suppose if you’re correct then we’ll all have far bigger things to worry about than political debate, the internet not working very well for one thing.

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#15 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 23, 2022, 10:27:27 am
I'm mad to think he'll do whatever the US does?

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#16 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 23, 2022, 10:38:49 am
I was replying to DT and mrJ.

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#17 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 23, 2022, 10:47:05 am
ah.

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#18 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 23, 2022, 06:37:17 pm
At the moment the main problem is his unwillingness to actively do something to stand up to Putin, such as clamp down on dirty money invested in London by Putin’s supporters, undoubtedly because of the number of the Tory party donors this would hit.

Generally, I think he’s a fool prone to impulsive and self serving behaviour. For that reason predicting his behaviour is difficult, given policy is often made on the hoof. I’d rather have someone with good sense and capacity for strategic thinking in charge. Wouldn’t you Pete?

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#19 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 23, 2022, 06:43:29 pm
Given Johnsons record he'll wait a couple of days, gauge the reaction, and then either do nothing or do what he feels is enough to appease the masses and his own increasingly frustrated mp's

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#20 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 23, 2022, 07:14:20 pm
At the moment the main problem is his unwillingness to actively do something to stand up to Putin, such as clamp down on dirty money invested in London by Putin’s supporters, undoubtedly because of the number of the Tory party donors this would hit.

Generally, I think he’s a fool prone to impulsive and self serving behaviour. For that reason predicting his behaviour is difficult, given policy is often made on the hoof. I’d rather have someone with good sense and capacity for strategic thinking in charge. Wouldn’t you Pete?

I didn't read Daves initial comment as a comment on Johnsons suitability for the job, I read it as a comment saying "we must avert conflict" that didn't specify an alternative strategh That's why I responded as it looked like he was saying there was a different path to the one being taken, namely one of rhetoric, and now, sanctions.

I agree these sanctions are a bit light but I don't think it's as simple as is portrayed. If the govt hits Putin with everything now then they have nothing up their sleeve as and when things escalate. Hitting him with the full package of sanctions now would put Putin in "free spin" situation; he won't accept full sanctions simply for control of a section of Ukraine he already de facto controlled. It might make him more likely to try and take the whole country.

It goes without saying that Johnson is a moron but I do think he understands the gravity of the situation. I don't think there's any situation where he would push to commit British troops in a conflict with Russia, I think that's an insane thing to think. There is no political school anywhere in Britain that would do that!


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#21 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 23, 2022, 07:21:11 pm


I agree these sanctions are a bit light but I don't think it's as simple as is portrayed. If the govt hits Putin with everything now then they have nothing up their sleeve as and when things escalate. Hitting him with the full package of sanctions now would put Putin in "free spin" situation; he won't accept full sanctions simply for control of a section of Ukraine he already de facto controlled. It might make him more likely to try and take the whole country.


I think it’s just weak and will be read as such. Treading lightly around Putin is no excuse for allowing Russian dirty money the freedom of the city, should have been dealt with years ago.

One take on the extent: https://www.transparency.org.uk/uk-money-laundering-stats-russia-suspicious-wealth

DAVETHOMAS90

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#22 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 23, 2022, 07:23:35 pm
The difficulty, Spiders and PJH, or the problem is that I really don't think Boris' brain focusses on the wider consequences. I really don't, which is what worries me about his rhetoric.

I also think he lacks the critical awareness to work as strategically as is required. I think people underestimate where his focus really lies, and the possible unintended consequences of that.

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#23 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 23, 2022, 09:18:23 pm


I agree these sanctions are a bit light but I don't think it's as simple as is portrayed. If the govt hits Putin with everything now then they have nothing up their sleeve as and when things escalate. Hitting him with the full package of sanctions now would put Putin in "free spin" situation; he won't accept full sanctions simply for control of a section of Ukraine he already de facto controlled. It might make him more likely to try and take the whole country.


I think it’s just weak and will be read as such. Treading lightly around Putin is no excuse for allowing Russian dirty money the freedom of the city, should have been dealt with years ago.


I agree, but as I say I don't think there is a super obvious alternative strategy, I think it's a matter of opinion. I'm also not convinced Putin is much bothered about what happens to the oligarchs. He has made a career out of marginalising them after all, I don't think he will be receptive to their complaints.

To me the only thing that will make him think twice is a slow, prolonged economic squeeze, throttling the economy. That will have effects here as well obviously. I think Ukraine could well become like a Soviet-Afghanistan, a money sink for both Russia and the West, with no real winners.

All that said, I would also have gone further with this first tranche of sanctions, because it does undoubtedly look weak.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2022, 09:23:25 pm by spidermonkey09 »

spidermonkey09

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#24 Re: Re: Politics 2020
February 23, 2022, 09:21:23 pm
The difficulty, Spiders and PJH, or the problem is that I really don't think Boris' brain focusses on the wider consequences. I really don't, which is what worries me about his rhetoric.

I also think he lacks the critical awareness to work as strategically as is required. I think people underestimate where his focus really lies, and the possible unintended consequences of that.

I am about as far from thinking Johnson is a good PM, or even a suitable character or intellect to be PM, as its possible to get. But I don't agree that he isnt aware of the seriousness of the situation. There is all but zero chance of him ordering troops into Ukraine absent mindedly while talking to Carrie about wallpaper or whatever. If I'm wrong, I'll happily acknowledge it if I'm allowed my phone in the gulag!

 

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