[Fiend]

Edit: My response is based around vaccine enforcement solely in terms of unvaccinated people being restricted from certain optional/luxury high transmission risk indoor public social environments such as pubs, clubs, restaurants, cinema, air travel etc (I'd have indoor sporting facilities as essential not optional / luxury) and NOT on a blanket lockdown for unvaccinated people as is proposed in Austria.

[petejh]

One complication to the question of 'should you have to prove vaccination status' is the availability of self-testing. This muddies the waters because in theory for some of the situations where people are talking about mandating for proof of vaccine, you can 'prove' a negative self-test instead. But in practice the self-test process can easily be bullshitted and the incentive is there to do that.

Proof of vaccine is harder to bullshit, although the 'proof of vaccine' checks I've been through while travelling over the last year have been comical - I could easily have screen-shotted some phoney NHS covid pass and flashed it at the person checking and they wouldn't have been interested in checking.

A lot of this comes down to self-policing because a government only has so much power of enforcement, and a lot depends on the motivation of the person doing the self-policing. In my experience many people don't care very much, and I don't blame them.

[jwi]

In larger cities in France the police sometimes walk through restaurants to check the vaccination pass and the id. If you use someone else's pass you risk up to €3,750 in fines (for repeated offences.... €750 the first time). If the restaurant let you in without a pass they get fined as well.

[andy popp]

Denmark has reintroduced its Coronapas from today as cases rise after a very stable period. I see three effects: it drives vaccination (not a massive issue, there are anti-vaxxers, of course, but fewer than in Germany, for example); it drives testing, and it stops the unvaccinated and/or untested from mingling with the rest of us. It was a major tool in the government's arsenal and I'm very glad to see it reintroduced - we pretty much all still have it on our phones anyway. And last time round it certainly was properly checked and enforced, with the QR code being scanned. The pass is based on vaccination status, negative test (readily and freely available), or recovery from infection within certain timeframe and is reguired for pretty much all indoor public spaces except for shops.

As to mandates in certain professions, especially care and medical professions, then I'm afraid I have little sympathy left. If you want to be a carer in an old people's home then you should be vaccinated. The typical reason given not to be seems to be along the lines of "I'm not sure yet, we don't have enough information etc." Billions of doses of these vaccines have been administered - they're safe.

[Fiend]

Please... They're not "vaccines" , they're experimental MNRA gene-therapy injections, for de-population and/or sterilisation. Ofc. It's just the de-population bit seems alarmingly slow.

[Offwidth]

I'm genuinely interested on peoples opinion on this? This thread was quite interesting, and now we've moved on 6 months and some of these measures are actually being implemented in Scotland and other European countries.
eg Austria set to lockdown the non-vaccinated https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59245018
"The chancellor says this means that people who have not been vaccinated won't be able to leave home, unless it is for essential reasons like going to work, buying food or exercise"

I think this is wrong under normal circumstances as its possible to have passports (as other countries have) which include testing and recent infection. Pete's right its easy to 'game' testing in social settings but in a work setting it would be a dismissable offence so I think reasonable compliance is possible. Then we have the fact that the psychology of compulsion  feeds into poorer belief in the public health message (already wobbling due to shit government messaging and mass misinformation on social media).

In the current UK situation with mass staff shortages in the care system and the NHS, where the NHS is in crisis (and stroke patients and heart emergencies cant get to hospital in the required time window) and where testing and PPE should ideally give as near as possible 100% protection, it seems to me to be completely nuts as a policy. Safety gains would be sub percentile if people are following testing rules and wearing proper PPE and don't forget vaccinated people can also easily spread delta. It was at least possible to implement the lunacy in the care system (with tens of thousands now looking for new jobs and care standards likely hitting a new low as a result of understaffing) but in the NHS the unions and professional bodies won't accept mass sackings of around 5% of frontline staff ...there will be a fudge. The government picking fights with health workers in a crisis is also nuts. The government trying their hardest to block bad news from the NHS by threatening trust management is also nuts (well evidenced on Roy Lilley blogs if anyone doubts this).

[mark20]

I believe that the mandate for vaccination in the French health service only led to 0.1% of people actually leaving,  and a large escalation of people getting vaccinated. 

Yeh it seems that telling people they will loose their jobs and banned from joining the rest of society will force encourage them to get vaccinated.

I still think its entirely right for people to have to prove vaccine status,   

I'm quite shocked at how many on lefty-liberal-progressive ukb advocate a 2nd class citizenship for un-vaccinated people 

[dunnyg]

The counter argument is that people not getting vaccinated are forcing people with shit immune systems to lead a second class existence.

[webbo]

In my experience of the NHS I would expect that the tin hat/ anti vax staff are probably the  ones who will be off sick anyway.

[petejh]

In my experience of the NHS I would expect that the tin hat/ anti vax staff are probably the  ones who will be off sick anyway.

Seen the price of tin recently? Demand/supply reaction due to all the hat-wearing going on in the world:

The counter argument is that people not getting vaccinated are forcing people with shit immune systems to lead a second class existence.

This claim needs unpacking because it's such a common response. A counter-counter argument is 'how many people need to be vaccinated?'.
In the spring of this year the common wisdom appeared to be that once the majority of adults above a certain age - somewhere around late 20s/early30s - were vaccinated then the relative risk from severe illness due to covid (versus severe illness from a.n.other cause) in the population would be acceptable. The narrative has shifted to vaccinating young kids and teenagers. Where do you accept enough has been done versus 'perfection'. I don't have a concrete view btw, just find it interesting to watch the goalposts of public attitude moving.

I'm quite shocked at how many on lefty-liberal-progressive ukb advocate a 2nd class citizenship for un-vaccinated people 

Really? I'm shocked that you're shocked. The 'political compass' project shows both right wing and left wing are equally capable of authoritarian beliefs.

[Offwidth]

As to mandates in certain professions, especially care and medical professions, then I'm afraid I have little sympathy left. If you want to be a carer in an old people's home then you should be vaccinated. The typical reason given not to be seems to be along the lines of "I'm not sure yet, we don't have enough information etc." Billions of doses of these vaccines have been administered - they're safe.

Having little sympathy doesn't help though. What we need is to convince people in the face of Brandollinis law fed by social media misinformation (that our governments and companies don't seem keen to block) and some religious extremism that is stuck against some actual facts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandolini%27s_law

On the latter point, some might not be aware of say the catholic ultra conservative position on not accepting vaccines because some of the testing was based on cells cultures that had foetal cell ancestry. The pope disagrees with this view but they don't care. It's not strictly misinformation in that particular case, it's a faith position of a cultish branch of a religion.

Yes vaccines are very very low risk (usually much lower than the covid infection risks for the exact same conditions), yes health staff should get vaccinated. Yet the pragmatic reality is we can't afford to lose those staff from the NHS front line this winter and a passport type system in risk terms (given testing and PPE and the fact that vaccinated staff can also spread delta) would be in the noise in risk terms. As a comparison, do all visitors need to be fully vaccinated?

[andy popp]

I'm quite shocked at how many on lefty-liberal-progressive ukb advocate a 2nd class citizenship for un-vaccinated people 

That's a little hyperbolic Mark. Lots of jobs have eligibility requirements, particularly when mistakes in the work carry a real threat of harm to others. Bus drivers can't turn up to work drunk. I don't support a general vaccine mandate - far from it - but I think there are a number of professions for which a strong case can be made, most obviously medicine and care.

More broadly, participation in society is not some purely individualistic free for all. Even the most anarchic among us conform to lots of norms and rules. In times of a pandemic - and, critically, assuming vaccination, testing, or proof of infection are readily and freely available to all, without favour - then it doesn't seem an unreasonable request in exchange for participation in a quite a limited range or non-essential social activities.

[Offwidth]

In the spring of this year the common wisdom appeared to be that once the majority of adults above a certain age - somewhere around late 20s/early30s - were vaccinated then the relative risk from severe illness due to covid (versus severe illness from a.n.other cause) in the population would be acceptable. The narrative has shifted to vaccinating young kids and teenagers. Where do you accept enough has been done versus 'perfection'. I don't have a concrete view btw, just find it interesting to watch the goalposts of public attitude moving.

Since spring, delta happened and the vaccination requirement estimate now is in the high nineties percentile, with half year boosters as immunity sags. It's not clear that the combination of vaccination and infection immunity will be enough to ever give herd immunity with delta as the ubiquitous variant, and quite likely jt won't be. We have high risk populations that are vaccinated as well as some of the more careful unvaccinated (like the catholic cultists) who will need to be very careful for many months.

[petejh]

That doesn't answer the underlying question. What is the current estimate of risk from serious illness due to covid, relative to the risk of serious illness due to a.n.other virus? I genuinely don't know, so I can't form an informed belief about the vaccination status of people.  Is the relative risk a bit higher/much higher/or lower? Bearing in mind there will always be immune-compromised people in the population - this fact hasn't emerged with the outbreak of the covid pandemic.

[dunnyg]

Pete, how many people need to be vaccinated? Good question. Depends what you deem to be an acceptable number of deaths.

From an individual (my) point of view it is sa function of
Probability that a given person has COVID and is transmissive, the probability of me catching it if locked in a cinema/restaurant/climbing wall with them, and the probability of me dieing or getting long term effects if I contract it.

I have little to no control over 3 and limited control over 1 and 2. More vaccines should reduce 1, masks and other measured reduce 2. In my case 3 is significantly higher than the gen pop, so I am more bothered about 1 and 2.

What's an acceptable combined probability at an individual level? I don't know, and will likely vary depending on the place/event I want to attend, and the current COVID rates. I haven't done any maths to work it out, so it is quite emotionally driven.

If people aren't being vaccinated due to misunderstanding that is a failure of the authorities. If it is for some deeply held belief, e.g. religion, I think it is mental, but whatever.

Should we cater for the average population person, or the most vulnerable in our society? Would a complete lockdown for non vaccinated improve quality of life for shit immune people significantly Vs the harm it would impose on the non vaccinated?

I don't have any answers, but it's interesting to think about. The modelling side of it must be fascinating to be involved with, and I'm a bit jealous of those who are!

[andy popp]

As to mandates in certain professions, especially care and medical professions, then I'm afraid I have little sympathy left. If you want to be a carer in an old people's home then you should be vaccinated. The typical reason given not to be seems to be along the lines of "I'm not sure yet, we don't have enough information etc." Billions of doses of these vaccines have been administered - they're safe.

Having little sympathy doesn't help though. What we need is to convince people

Absolutely. I was just expressing some personal frustration - not offering a prescription for policy.

[spidermonkey09]

As to mandates in certain professions, especially care and medical professions, then I'm afraid I have little sympathy left. If you want to be a carer in an old people's home then you should be vaccinated. The typical reason given not to be seems to be along the lines of "I'm not sure yet, we don't have enough information etc." Billions of doses of these vaccines have been administered - they're safe.

Having little sympathy doesn't help though. What we need is to convince people

Absolutely. I was just expressing some personal frustration - not offering a prescription for policy.

Convincing can take the form of both carrot and stick. There are plenty of incentives to get jabbed already and there has been a year long education campaign. Those that haven't been jabbed have had plenty of opportunity to and I don't think 'education' will get the job done; they just aren't bothered. As such I have no problem with making anti-vaxxers lives awkward in some specific contexts to force peoples hand. The covid passport/ pass system seems to work well in France and across Europe as detailed above. Yes I accept my authoritarian streak is showing!

[petejh]

I don't have any answers, but it's interesting to think about.

I think those questions are not just interesting to think about, they're essential to think about by all of society and shouldn't be left just to government modellers! To me the decisions should be mostly about risk relative to an acceptable norm. Accepting that a definitive 'norm' is difficult to quantify.

If the issue isn't being thought about in that frame then, as you say, decisions are based more on emotion. Which is a bullshit way for societies and governments to make decisions affecting public health, individual liberty and the economic health of countries.

[Oldmanmatt]

I don't have any answers, but it's interesting to think about.

I think those questions are not just interesting to think about, they're essential to think about! They should be at the core of decision-making. To me the decisions should be mostly about risk, relative to an acceptable norm. Accepting that a definitive 'norm' is difficult to quantify.
If the issue isn't being thought about in that frame then, as you say, decisions are based more on emotion. Which is a bullshit way for societies and governments to make decisions affecting public health, individual liberty and the economic health of countries.

I agree.
But.

Humans don’t and probably never will, work like that.

Remember, some humans still believe Torquay United will, one day, win the Premier.
Even ant-vaxxers think they’re nuts.

[Potash]

I think we should permit people to act as they please but be more accountable for the consequence of their actions.

For example if my gran was in a nursing home and died of Covid I think that it would be reasonable to seek damages from any unvaccinated care staff who on the balance of probabilities contributed to her death.

Likewise any unvaccinated medical staff should not be covered by the NHS medical negligence insurance cover opening them up to the risk of circumstance changing payments being made against them.

If they want the freedom to kill people they should carry the consequences of killing people.

[James Malloch]

I think we should permit people to act as they please but be more accountable for the consequence of their actions.

For example if my gran was in a nursing home and died of Covid I think that it would be reasonable to seek damages from any unvaccinated care staff who on the balance of probabilities contributed to her death.

Likewise any unvaccinated medical staff should not be covered by the NHS medical negligence insurance cover opening them up to the risk of circumstance changing payments being made against them.

If they want the freedom to kill people they should carry the consequences of killing people.

Even if there was a way to ascertain whether it was passed on by that member of staff then this could be possible but even then I think it would be a bad idea. Knowing you had Covid and going to work in those circumstances would be a different question.

Being vaccinated doesn’t stop you catching and transmitting Covid, far from it.

An unvaccinated hermit who only goes to work/the shops is far less likely to spread anything than a vaccinated person who goes clubbing every weekend. Should we ban all care staff from enclosed spaces too?

[petejh]

I think we should permit people to act as they please but be more accountable for the consequence of their actions.

For example if my gran was in a nursing home and died of Covid I think that it would be reasonable to seek damages from any unvaccinated care staff who on the balance of probabilities contributed to her death.

Likewise any unvaccinated medical staff should not be covered by the NHS medical negligence insurance cover opening them up to the risk of circumstance changing payments being made against them.

If they want the freedom to kill people they should carry the consequences of killing people.

Where do you live? Because I want to ensure I never, ever, give you a belay.

[webbo]

Likewise any unvaccinated medical staff should not be covered by the NHS medical negligence insurance cover opening them up to the risk of circumstance changing payments being made against them.

I may be out of date but I don’t think the NHS has insurance. I think pay outs come out of the budget.

[Potash]

Why specifically?

I think the idea of fractional damages for statistical contribution to harms caused could unlock loads of benefits in society.

Imagine if you could go after polluting companies for a fraction of the cost of flooding based on their proportional contribution to global warming.

Or asbestos producers who gave people cancer and always hid behind the defence of "you can't prove it was a strand of our asbestos that killed him".

[Oldmanmatt]

I think we should permit people to act as they please but be more accountable for the consequence of their actions.

For example if my gran was in a nursing home and died of Covid I think that it would be reasonable to seek damages from any unvaccinated care staff who on the balance of probabilities contributed to her death.

Likewise any unvaccinated medical staff should not be covered by the NHS medical negligence insurance cover opening them up to the risk of circumstance changing payments being made against them.

If they want the freedom to kill people they should carry the consequences of killing people.

Even if there was a way to ascertain whether it was passed on by that member of staff then this could be possible but even then I think it would be a bad idea. Knowing you had Covid and going to work in those circumstances would be a different question.

Being vaccinated doesn’t stop you catching and transmitting Covid, far from it.

An unvaccinated hermit who only goes to work/the shops is far less likely to spread anything than a vaccinated person who goes clubbing every weekend. Should we ban all care staff from enclosed spaces too?

I suspect, that should there be even the most marginal way of ascribing liability (preferably to an insured entity), the legal profession will find it.
The “Free Market” has a way of moulding public behaviour, too.
Watch this space for employers finding a way to block employees from long term sick leave, for Covid related issues, if unvaccinated, too.
Little things like having to state your status, every time you want to sit in a cinema or whatever, even when no mandate to be vaccinated exists, will convince a number of the hesitant to conform. Many of the arguments against vaccination, will wither in time and eventually, only the truly un-convincable will be left. Much like the “3G”, “4G”, “5G” and “Microwave ovens melt your brain and make your food radioactive” brigades all fade over time.
We’re too early in the process to be worrying about this. Granted, if we’d seen 35/40% refusal, we’d have to worry.