[slab_happy]

Hopefully it won't translate into deaths, but anecdotally at least, a lot more of the current hospitalizations are in younger age groups than last time round:

https://twitter.com/seahorse4000/status/1416152941346627585

[Wellsy]

Not vaccinated though

[slab_happy]

Not vaccinated though

No, that's kind of the point. The article TobyD linked was about the surge in hospitalizations in young unvaccinated people (in the US, in the article, though the Tweet I linked to is from the UK), so I thought that's what we were talking about?

[Sidehaas]

Data on cases, emergency care visits, emergency care overnight stays and deaths is presented by vaccination status in under/over 50 age bins for Delta here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
The latest update has just been issued, look at table 5.
The data has a few caveats, but big picture:
- ratio of total cases in under 50s to total cases in over 50s approx 10:1 (obviously due to average vaccination status combined with young people having on average more contacts)
- ratio of total emergency care visits in under 50s to the same in over 50s approx 4:1 (within these groups, very roughly 75% of <50s were unvaccinated at the time, vs very roughly 25% of >50s.)
- ratio of total emergency care overnight stays in under 50s to the same in over 50s very roughly 2:1 (similar ratios of vaccinated/unvaccinated to the above)
- ratio of total deaths in under 50s to the total deaths in over 50s approx 1:4, ie the balance flips. Ratios of vaccination status again broadly the same (perhaps more like 1 in 3 >50s who die are unvaccinated rather than 1 in 4 who go to emergency care.)

TLDR in the UK emergency units have 2-4 times more <50s with covid in them than >50s, around 75% of the <50s in emergency care (cumulative since February) have been unvaccinated, but there are still around 4 times as many deaths in over 50s (most of whom have been fully vaccinated and are just unlucky.) The number of <50s who have died more than 3 weeks after their first dose (or after their second) with Delta is still in single figures.

[James Malloch]

Data on cases, emergency care visits, emergency care overnight stays and deaths is presented by vaccination status in under/over 50 age bins for Delta here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
The latest update has just been issued, look at table 5.
The data has a few caveats, but big picture:
- ratio of total cases in under 50s to total cases in over 50s approx 10:1 (obviously due to average vaccination status combined with young people having on average more contacts)
- ratio of total emergency care visits in under 50s to the same in over 50s approx 4:1 (within these groups, very roughly 75% of <50s were unvaccinated at the time, vs very roughly 25% of >50s.)
- ratio of total emergency care overnight stays in under 50s to the same in over 50s very roughly 2:1 (similar ratios of vaccinated/unvaccinated to the above)
- ratio of total deaths in under 50s to the total deaths in over 50s approx 1:4, ie the balance flips. Ratios of vaccination status again broadly the same (perhaps more like 1 in 3 >50s who die are unvaccinated rather than 1 in 4 who go to emergency care.)

TLDR in the UK emergency units have 2-4 times more <50s with covid in them than >50s, around 75% of the <50s in emergency care (cumulative since February) have been unvaccinated, but there are still around 4 times as many deaths in over 50s (most of whom have been fully vaccinated and are just unlucky.) The number of <50s who have died more than 3 weeks after their first dose (or after their second) with Delta is still in single figures.

Interesting stats, thanks!

Though isn’t the deaths one more like 1:10, rather than 1:4?

[Duma]

yes.

[Sidehaas]

Data on cases, emergency care visits, emergency care overnight stays and deaths is presented by vaccination status in under/over 50 age bins for Delta here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
The latest update has just been issued, look at table 5.
The data has a few caveats, but big picture:
- ratio of total cases in under 50s to total cases in over 50s approx 10:1 (obviously due to average vaccination status combined with young people having on average more contacts)
- ratio of total emergency care visits in under 50s to the same in over 50s approx 4:1 (within these groups, very roughly 75% of <50s were unvaccinated at the time, vs very roughly 25% of >50s.)
- ratio of total emergency care overnight stays in under 50s to the same in over 50s very roughly 2:1 (similar ratios of vaccinated/unvaccinated to the above)
- ratio of total deaths in under 50s to the total deaths in over 50s approx 1:4, ie the balance flips. Ratios of vaccination status again broadly the same (perhaps more like 1 in 3 >50s who die are unvaccinated rather than 1 in 4 who go to emergency care.)

TLDR in the UK emergency units have 2-4 times more <50s with covid in them than >50s, around 75% of the <50s in emergency care (cumulative since February) have been unvaccinated, but there are still around 4 times as many deaths in over 50s (most of whom have been fully vaccinated and are just unlucky.) The number of <50s who have died more than 3 weeks after their first dose (or after their second) with Delta is still in single figures.

Interesting stats, thanks!

Though isn’t the deaths one more like 1:10, rather than 1:4?

Sorry, yes, not sure what happened there

[Duma]

~25M over 50's vs ~42M under 50's too

[TobyD]

I do find the data interesting, I'm not critising anyone here, but the thread was intended to be more about ethics of nudging / coercion of people to get vaccinated.
I have to say in the last few days I think I'm more convinced that fairly heavy coercion of vaccination is a good thing. This won't be the last pandemic mankind has to deal with, and covid itself won't be going away anytime soon. People are going to have to used to it, unless we want serious problems in the future.

[Sidehaas]

I do find the data interesting, I'm not critising anyone here, but the thread was intended to be more about ethics of nudging / coercion of people to get vaccinated.
I have to say in the last few days I think I'm more convinced that fairly heavy coercion of vaccination is a good thing. This won't be the last pandemic mankind has to deal with, and covid itself won't be going away anytime soon. People are going to have to used to it, unless we want serious problems in the future.

Appreciate it was off topic, just thought it might help a few of the posters above discussing that topic.
I don't have any problem with vaccines being mandatory for adults to attend events that are potentially high risk and which are clearly not essential. Nightclubs, theatres, churches, football stadia, other places with crowds.  I'd feel a bit uncomfortable with requiring it for everyday essentials like going shopping or using public transport, even if everyone was given enough notice that they could easily go out and get a jab beforehand. It just feels like a bit too much of a precedent to set.  If we needed it for those activities to keep infections low then I'd say we'd gone down the wrong path as a country and would be much better off putting some restrictions back in. I'm a bit on the fence with relatively everyday things gyms (incl climbing walls) or pubs - they are a pretty high risk environment so I'd probably support it while wishing it was unnecessary -but it doesn't currently look like UK govt wants them to be that widespread anyway.

[TobyD]

I do find the data interesting, I'm not critising anyone here, but the thread was intended to be more about ethics of nudging / coercion of people to get vaccinated.
I have to say in the last few days I think I'm more convinced that fairly heavy coercion of vaccination is a good thing. This won't be the last pandemic mankind has to deal with, and covid itself won't be going away anytime soon. People are going to have to used to it, unless we want serious problems in the future.

Appreciate it was off topic, just thought it might help a few of the posters above discussing that topic.
I don't have any problem with vaccines being mandatory for adults to attend events that are potentially high risk and which are clearly not essential. Nightclubs, theatres, churches, football stadia, other places with crowds.  I'd feel a bit uncomfortable with requiring it for everyday essentials like going shopping or using public transport, even if everyone was given enough notice that they could easily go out and get a jab beforehand. It just feels like a bit too much of a precedent to set.  If we needed it for those activities to keep infections low then I'd say we'd gone down the wrong path as a country and would be much better off putting some restrictions back in. I'm a bit on the fence with relatively everyday things gyms (incl climbing walls) or pubs - they are a pretty high risk environment so I'd probably support it while wishing it was unnecessary -but it doesn't currently look like UK govt wants them to be that widespread anyway.

Fair enough,  I'm in roughly the same place on it, although I'd be happy to have vaccination certificate required at a climbing wall or cinema,  these things aren't excluding the unvaccinated from society, things like food shops or public transport would feel like a step further,  and I agree if needed,  then perhaps lockdown would be more appropriate. 

[Will Hunt]

One friend had the 1st dose and had such a ghastly reaction that they won't be going for the 2nd. I believe they have a family history of this sort of reaction to vaccinations. If I remember correctly there are multiple medics in the family (late father was a consultant) who they have discussed this with, so hardly ignorant.

For completeness. This person is about 31 and had the AZ vaccine early through work (March). They had a bad reaction to AZ and also have 2 hereditary blood clotting disorders so when the stuff about blood clotting risk came out they were advised not to have the second. They've since been given Pfizer as a cohort of mixed vaccine people with no problems.


So that example is moot, but I still think it's relevant to consider the impact of vaccine passports on those who might reasonably decline/not be able to have 2 x vaccinations.

[slab_happy]

Oh yay, glad your friend's been able to have an appropriate second jab!

Also they might know this already, but they've had what is potentially one of the most effective vaccine combos around -- AZ followed by Pfizer looks amazing:

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-06-28-mixed-oxfordpfizer-vaccine-schedules-generate-robust-immune-response-against-covid
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3874014

[Oldmanmatt]

One friend had the 1st dose and had such a ghastly reaction that they won't be going for the 2nd. I believe they have a family history of this sort of reaction to vaccinations. If I remember correctly there are multiple medics in the family (late father was a consultant) who they have discussed this with, so hardly ignorant.

For completeness. This person is about 31 and had the AZ vaccine early through work (March). They had a bad reaction to AZ and also have 2 hereditary blood clotting disorders so when the stuff about blood clotting risk came out they were advised not to have the second. They've since been given Pfizer as a cohort of mixed vaccine people with no problems.


So that example is moot, but I still think it's relevant to consider the impact of vaccine passports on those who might reasonably decline/not be able to have 2 x vaccinations.

Is there some reason I’m unaware of that those with legitimate reasons for being Un/partially vaccinated couldn’t have a “passport” that reflects that?
I was shown a homemade “I refused the vaccine” card the other day, by someone who was vehemently opposed to vaccine passports.
The tit got quite upset when I laughed at him being the only person in the room who actually had one and he’d made it himself…

[User deactivated.]

Oh yay, glad your friend's been able to have an appropriate second jab!

Also they might know this already, but they've had what is potentially one of the most effective vaccine combos around -- AZ followed by Pfizer looks amazing:

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-06-28-mixed-oxfordpfizer-vaccine-schedules-generate-robust-immune-response-against-covid
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3874014

Interesting. I'll go and get my 2nd vaccine next week to coincide with a training deload week. My first jab was AZ in March, I think. I hear that alternatives to the AZ jab are now offered to people under 40 and I'm 31. Do I need to ask for a different one now?

[Will Hunt]

One friend had the 1st dose and had such a ghastly reaction that they won't be going for the 2nd. I believe they have a family history of this sort of reaction to vaccinations. If I remember correctly there are multiple medics in the family (late father was a consultant) who they have discussed this with, so hardly ignorant.

For completeness. This person is about 31 and had the AZ vaccine early through work (March). They had a bad reaction to AZ and also have 2 hereditary blood clotting disorders so when the stuff about blood clotting risk came out they were advised not to have the second. They've since been given Pfizer as a cohort of mixed vaccine people with no problems.


So that example is moot, but I still think it's relevant to consider the impact of vaccine passports on those who might reasonably decline/not be able to have 2 x vaccinations.

Is there some reason I’m unaware of that those with legitimate reasons for being Un/partially vaccinated couldn’t have a “passport” that reflects that?

I'm sure that exemptions will be given, though I don't know of any guidance as to how they might be handed out. I haven't looked into it as it's not an issue for me personally (I had my second dose yesterday and the sore arm is substantially less sore than with dose 1). If it comes down to GP's discretion (it probably will do?) then I can see it being fraught with issues.

[slab_happy]

Oh yay, glad your friend's been able to have an appropriate second jab!

Also they might know this already, but they've had what is potentially one of the most effective vaccine combos around -- AZ followed by Pfizer looks amazing:

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-06-28-mixed-oxfordpfizer-vaccine-schedules-generate-robust-immune-response-against-covid
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3874014

Interesting. I'll go and get my 2nd vaccine next week to coincide with a training deload week. My first jab was AZ in March, I think. I hear that alternatives to the AZ jab are now offered to people under 40 and I'm 31. Do I need to ask for a different one now?

I believe guidance in the UK is currently that if you got AZ for your first dose and it was fine, you're supposed to get it for your second dose too (and the data seems to say that the risk of clotting issues on the second dose are minimal if you didn't get them on the first):

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccination-worried-about-having-your-second-dose-of-astrazeneca/worried-about-having-your-second-dose-of-astrazeneca-vaccination

Mix-and-matching is being studied intensely as a way of boosting effectiveness (and because some countries are mix-and-matching by default because of changing their rules partway through their rollout, e.g. Spain and Canada), but it's not officially endorsed here, so sadly you don't get to pick.

(Also it looks like right now there's loads of AZ available in the UK and constricted supplies of Pfizer/Moderna.)

On the plus side, you'll have had a properly long interval between doses, which does turbo-charge AZ's effectiveness.

[User deactivated.]

Oh yay, glad your friend's been able to have an appropriate second jab!

Also they might know this already, but they've had what is potentially one of the most effective vaccine combos around -- AZ followed by Pfizer looks amazing:

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-06-28-mixed-oxfordpfizer-vaccine-schedules-generate-robust-immune-response-against-covid
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3874014

Interesting. I'll go and get my 2nd vaccine next week to coincide with a training deload week. My first jab was AZ in March, I think. I hear that alternatives to the AZ jab are now offered to people under 40 and I'm 31. Do I need to ask for a different one now?

I believe guidance in the UK is currently that if you got AZ for your first dose and it was fine, you're supposed to get it for your second dose too (and the data seems to say that the risk of clotting issues on the second dose are minimal if you didn't get them on the first):

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccination-worried-about-having-your-second-dose-of-astrazeneca/worried-about-having-your-second-dose-of-astrazeneca-vaccination

Mix-and-matching is being studied intensely as a way of boosting effectiveness (and because some countries are mix-and-matching by default because of changing their rules partway through their rollout, e.g. Spain and Canada), but it's not officially endorsed here, so sadly you don't get to pick.

(Also it looks like right now there's loads of AZ available in the UK and constricted supplies of Pfizer/Moderna.)

On the plus side, you'll have had a properly long interval between doses, which does turbo-charge AZ's effectiveness.

Thanks for the info!

[slab_happy]

I am a massive nerd about the mix-and-match research because it's fascinating, so I'm a little sad I didn't get to do it!

But (as a fellow double-AZ person) I console myself that either we end up needing boosters (probably mRNA, therefore getting to mix-and-match), or it turns out we don't need boosters because AZ's done its "little vaccine that could" thing again.

It really sucks that it's got the clotting issue (at however low a rate), because AZ's turned out to be a real workhorse, and it's got some interesting and funky stuff going on with the T-cell response; there's been some speculation recently that it might lead to longer-lasting immunity.

[Oldmanmatt]

I’m sat in the Bunker, feeling sorry for myself, with four holes in my left shoulder, an arm which is hurting enough to probably deny me much sleep tonight.
And I got to thinking about the thread title.
I had to renew my vaccine passport today, and that meant four vaccines today. Unfortunately, because my original was lost, I had to get a repeat Yellow fever, along with all the renewals and boosters. Meningitis (all of them), Hep A (my B was still good) and Typhoid. Luckily, my Tetanus, Diphtheria and Polio are only a couple of years old and my GP had records for Measles, Mumps and Rubella and (hopefully) my Rabies is still in date (but I still await my papers from the MOD)….
Anyway, if you’ve never seen one, it’s a little yellow booklet (easy to lose) and if you’re a Merchant sailor, you have to produce it on request and inspections are logged in your Discharge book (which is, sort of, another passport, all rolled up with a record of qualifications, experience and a host of other things).
As yet, Covid isn’t one of the requirements, but it surely will be soon. I hadn’t really thought about it before, but it’s a requirement for employment, so that probably explains why I haven’t met many anti-vaccers at sea…

I honestly don’t feel very oppressed, just sore.

[mark20]

Will ~60,000 care workers be sacked tomorrow? And potentially 70,000 NHS staff by next April?

[mark20]

I'm genuinely interested on peoples opinion on this? This thread was quite interesting, and now we've moved on 6 months and some of these measures are actually being implemented in Scotland and other European countries.
eg Austria set to lockdown the non-vaccinated https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59245018
"The chancellor says this means that people who have not been vaccinated won't be able to leave home, unless it is for essential reasons like going to work, buying food or exercise"

[Fiend]

I'm trying to have an opinion on the situation overall, but I keep getting distracted by anti-vaxxer conspiracy loons and having an opinion on them instead. Which is considerably easier and more black and white - anyone who refuses the vaccine and campaigns against the vaccine on the basis of fucking """magnetism""" or """depopulation""" or """nano-particles""" should not only be denied civil liberties, they should also be denied medical treatment when they do get the covid-5g.

Ahem where was I?? Ah. The actual question. Well the logic of vaccine reliance seems to have worked out looking at the statistics: It has stopped the very high transmissions causing high hospitalisations and deaths, and thus, crucially, not encouraged the government to bring in any more draconian restrictions. Vaccines to avoid lockdowns seems to be very real.

Should vaccination be enforced to support this?? Assuming of course that vaccination means "vaccination or proof of medical exemption". Dunno. Maybe. If the choices are: 1. Let the covid run riot and crash the NHS (the govt won't let this happen), or 2. Go back to any form of lockdown to stop 1 happening (this can totally and utterly fuck off) or 3. Enforce some creepy draconian nanny-state vaccine rules to prevent 1 or 2 ... then 3 gets my vote. If there is an alternative 4 then I could be totally fine with that as long as it doesn't involve giving the magnetism morons a pico-second of leeway AND doesn't involve seeing the words "Stay Home" ever a-fucking-gain.

Incidentally I went out to a nightclub recently and the night organiser (Oblivion Underground) was very clear in advance that they didn't care what you did with vaccines, but that having proof of a recent negative covid test OR proof of vaccine status was mandatory simply for the safety of the clubbers, staff, DJs etc. They were very down-to-earth about it. Even so there was still one hilarious fucking imbecile on the FB page asking for a refund  because she refuses to do covid tests because of harmful chemicals in the test swab thingies. Yup you heard it here first - anti-testers are the new anti-vaxxers... Incidentally although I caught a banging set from Deathmachine, I left early because the sound levels kept getting really low and didn't do the industrial hardcore justice. Meh.

[jwi]

The French covid-pass has certainly helped the country to achieve a high vaccination grade despite the fact that 31% of the adult population are absolute twats. https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l%27%C3%A9lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_fran%C3%A7aise_de_2022

[TobyD]

The French covid-pass has certainly helped the country to achieve a high vaccination grade despite the fact that 31% of the adult population are absolute twats. https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l%27%C3%A9lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_fran%C3%A7aise_de_2022

I believe that the mandate for vaccination in the French health service only led to 0.1% of people actually leaving,  and a large escalation of people getting vaccinated. 

I still think its entirely right for people to have to prove vaccine status,  there can't be anyone who wouldn't rather sit on a plane, or be treated by someone who is less likely to give them a serious illness.