Weekend failures/deals/bailouts seem inevitable, more next week, then Fed/BoE pausing hikes next week has potential to send stocks and bonds into melt-up territory.
A meltup does look increasingly likely in the short term tho and I'm not sure how to play it.
Expected but still incredible to see - UBS forced by the Swiss national bank to buy Credit Suisse, for $1bn at a fraction of its book value. Shareholders of Switzerland's oldest major bank to be pretty much zeroed. $10 billion per day was being withdrawn from CS by customers this week. I encourage anyone interested to pay £1 and read the FT today (headline says 'offers to buy' but the details show its an offer made under duress).
Quote from: petejh on March 19, 2023, 12:49:07 pmExpected but still incredible to see - UBS forced by the Swiss national bank to buy Credit Suisse, for $1bn at a fraction of its book value. Shareholders of Switzerland's oldest major bank to be pretty much zeroed. $10 billion per day was being withdrawn from CS by customers this week. I encourage anyone interested to pay £1 and read the FT today (headline says 'offers to buy' but the details show its an offer made under duress).Article available here https://archive.is/awxQeI know very little about the banking sector, but from the outside it is interesting how much it has to do with market confidence. It seems hard to grasp whether these institutions do have deep issues because they're never allowed to actually play out. Seems similar to panic buying in a lot of ways.
I think in some respects this all makes current events more interesting and completely different to 2007/8. There were no complex derivatives at play here (at least to my knowledge), it was a simple error that first year econ/finance students are taught about
UBS can surely not fail, I assume.
Worst performance is by Vizsla Copper, down 47% but learning patience is the only green here so far. After that, Aldebaran, Surge, NGEX, Camino and Largo fill out the PF.Pete mentioned previously about going big on Filo, which also worked for me and I'm sure there's definitely something in my PF that I'll go big on this year.
Got in on market open with 2.5% of my pf at a price of $5.08.
Always interesting to hear what you've been up to Kelvin, you appear to have a 'good nose' for this as they say.Sheldon Iwentash selling his PNRL shares is a bit frustrating I agree - it will keep a lid on upside in the short-term - but anyone investing in this company has to accept this as part of the fabric. He part funded the company at a very early stage and consequently holds millions of shares at a very low price that he doesn't need to hold for the long-term to make huge profits - he's making huge profits now. He owns 6.5 million directly and another 7 million shares owned through his ThreeD Capital fund. He'll be selling-down these for a good while yet. I'm holding for the long term on this one, as I have faith in what the EM geophysics suggests for the link-up zone at Selebi - with nickel apparently being one of the easier minerals to find with EM when there's no chance of conflating by the presence of graphite (not present at Selebi); I place a lot of weight on Warren Irwin's opinion - one of the rare straightforward more honest guys in this industry who doesn't seem to feel the need to bullshit, perhaps as he made it very big on long/shorting BreX and then Nexgen early in his career; along with two other people positive on this one; and the involvement of Boris Kamstra (Alphamin's ex ceo) gives me confidence this is the real deal in terms of an ESG-friendly, western-friendly, nickel-sulfide development in a good jurisdiction.That said PNRL really botched a recent raising. Short term balls-up.General market fear providing cheap entries at the moment for Filo and Afm among others. Bit of info on PNRL from Warren Irwin. I'd listen to him on resource investing, less so on any other topic.
Afm also has a big chunk of me - currently around 10% of my total pf. Paying me handsomely in divi's