[Bradders]

As another aside, a friend of my brother's bought 100 GameStop shares at USD380 thinking it was a sure bet. He still hasn't sold as he's trying to decide what to do...

They were trading between about $11-$15 in normal market conditions, before the Reddit attention. They're now at $104. Does any more really need saying?!

Seriously, this is why I think US regulators need to come down pretty hard on this, as ultimately the people who lose out are the retail investors the Reddit dickheads think they're championing.

[Will Hunt]

You paper hands bitch, Bradders.
Imma spell it out for you apes. The hedge funds are bringing out ladder attack after ladder attack. They're fucked. The dip is fake news! Buy the dip!











(This is not financial advice.)

[Coops_13]

I'm very proud of my gains in the squeeze. I purchased a grand total of one share of AMC for $6 then sold it for $20 the next morning. I've now retired as a successful swing trader, currently writing a book and a training course - watch. this. space.

[Bradders]

Might close my short on GME soon

[andy popp]

I'm very proud of my gains in the squeeze. I purchased a grand total of one share of AMC for $6 then sold it for $20 the next morning. I've now retired as a successful swing trader, currently writing a book and a training course - watch. this. space.

That must have netted you a whole one and a half beers in Denver (or am I out of date?)

[teestub]

With Coop’s taste for 10% beers, maybe not even one!

[Coops_13]

I'm very proud of my gains in the squeeze. I purchased a grand total of one share of AMC for $6 then sold it for $20 the next morning. I've now retired as a successful swing trader, currently writing a book and a training course - watch. this. space.

That must have netted you a whole one and a half beers in Denver (or am I out of date?)

oh yeah, free beer = living the dream

[petejh]

Yeah, for sure. I tend to lump the stocks and the physical metal together in my mind. What you say is right but as far as I know it is unusual to make money in any mining stocks when the physical price is falling, even with low cost producers?
[/quote]

Depends what price you buy them at, there's still value to be found! (egg, meet sucker)

Not in a prolonged gold bear market, no. But currently gold companies are forecasting earnings based on $1,350 - $1,450 per oz gold, so lots of potential in the current bullish gold trend for miners to see large increases in their free cash flow when PoG is $400 per ounce higher. Also plenty of margin to absorb lower prices for well run companies with low costs.

[petejh]

Tin.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-02/tin-faces-historic-squeeze-as-electronics-boom-erodes-stockpiles

Cornish Metals. Listing on AIM this month. (already listed on the TSX).
https://cornishmetals.com/site/assets/files/4930/2020-01-25_cornish_metals_presentation_sm.pdf

GM shortage.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/general-motors-shuts-three-plants-183516230.html


(CM price predicted to drop on Monday due to dilution from the AIM placing)

[petejh]

Simon Reeve's series 'Cornwall' had a good section on the Cornish tin revival and the South Crofty mine. Note the environmental, ethical and sustainability considerations for the tin required in all electronic devices and EVs. Most tin currently mined comes from places like Myanmar and the DRC. Myanmar supplied the majority of China's tin.

Here from 44 minutes in:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000pb6s/cornwall-with-simon-reeve-series-1-episode-1

Cornish Metals (CUSN) listed on AIM on Tuesday. I'd been buying them on the Canadian exchange (CUSN.V) for the last month along with Alphamin Resources (AFM.V) on the TSX. Interesting arbitrage opportunity currently between the AIM and the TSX price.. price should find a balance soon. Some have been selling their TSX shares to repurchase on AIM for a discount.

CUSN's 'United Downs' mine is the better prospect. Detailed broker note here (free to register): https://www.hannam.partners/insights/research/research-articles/breathing-new-life-into-cornwall-s-mining-industry/

Tin price continues to rise as supply is squeezed.

[Will Hunt]

Keith Gill aka u/DeepFuckingValue aka Roaring Kitty testifies to the House, in which he declares "I am not a cat" and "I like the stonk".
Worth a watch to see all the little piss takes he puts in there.

https://twitter.com/YahooFinance/status/1362458489172488196?s=19

[Offwidth]

A cautionary investment tale

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/feb/20/i-was-told-it-was-as-safe-as-houses-savers-owed-thousands-as-firm-fails

[Fultonius]

Right, so, the big crash is coming, right?

I'm seriously considering cashing my my returns from this year, and getting back in after a slump. I can cope with "missing gains".

So, what are the risk of this strategy:

• If it sits as cash too long, it'll be eroded by inflation.[1]
• I get it wrong, there is no crash - see point 1 above - that's just "missed gains", whatever...I've "missed £4k of ETH "GAINZ" this year, pretty much over it.

Any more?

I'm happy enough with "riding out a dip" as I have no need for the cash short term but with all the shit going on in the world, I do feel it could be a long, protracted flatline....






1- would it be worth hedging against inflation? I guess metals are the usual hedges?

[Coops_13]

Nothing immediate to add, but I saw this recently which was quite amusing:

https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/time-the-market-game/

[Fultonius]

Nothing immediate to add, but I saw this recently which was quite amusing:

https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/time-the-market-game/

Tha's brilliant :-)

[petejh]

Right, so, the big crash is coming, right?

I'm seriously considering cashing my my returns from this year, and getting back in after a slump. I can cope with "missing gains".

So, what are the risk of this strategy:

• If it sits as cash too long, it'll be eroded by inflation.[1]
• I get it wrong, there is no crash - see point 1 above - that's just "missed gains", whatever...I've "missed £4k of ETH "GAINZ" this year, pretty much over it.

Any more?

I'm happy enough with "riding out a dip" as I have no need for the cash short term but with all the shit going on in the world, I do feel it could be a long, protracted flatline....


1- would it be worth hedging against inflation? I guess metals are the usual hedges?

A correction certainly looks imminent but you could probably find someone saying the same every day for the last 5 years.

Only you know your situation. Personally, I've cashed out large chunks of various holdings over the course of the last month or so. While short-term trading some commodities - tin, nickel and rare earths miners. Currently keeping 50/50 cash/equities but keeping a close watch. Ready to offload more into cash to around 80/20 cash/stocks

The markets seem fucked. So much cash pumped into the system and sky-high valuations all over the place. Everyone looking for the next short-term win. Feels like the Nasdaq is on a knife edge and the S&P500 appears to be rolling over. But it just refuses to die... Could Tesla be the straw that breaks its back...?  If/when it all goes pop it could be v.messy.

I have a daily reading list to try to keep a handle on sentiment from various angles. It starts with fairly bullish commentators, then goes through a few proven TA folk. But I always finish up with this guy. Ex head of trading at Goldman Sach. He's been calling the market correction since late last year. It's all macro, not individual companies - although he does seem to want a place in hell reserved for Tesla, for which he accurately called the drop last week. https://twitter.com/alexharfouche1
Ignore the temporary name - he changed it this week to something tulip-themed and 'invented' a crypto called 'Tullipcoin' for lols.. you can guess his view on crypto    Up until yesterday you could have read his expert commentary on various macro factors in play.. now he's just messing around with his new tullip toy so I guess he thinks the pop is now imminent.

BTC was nice the last couple of weeks, sold out end of last week with 200% gain in 7 days. Crypto seems to be an easy trade using TA, provided you can stomach the volatility and sell the rip. Hoping for a pullback to 48-50k before it goes again.

[petejh]

BTW Fultonius if you missed out on ETH gains then your opportunity is coming up. TA suggesting it drops all the way to 1000 - 1200 before it goes again. Peak crypto around May/June.. BTD.. (not advice!).

BTC correcting to 30-35k on the cards. I'll be buying some for the bounce if it hits 35k.

[Johnny Brown]

From the two previous big BTC bull runs I'd suggest if/ when it does correct it will not be long before it is back down below $20k and $12k would not be unlikely, followed by a fairly long (18 months period) of fairly stagnant fluctuations ~$20k before another big run to >$100k. But yeah there's a good chance of a brief bounce if you've got the time to watch carefully and move fast. Having sat through the last long stagnant period I stupidly sold mine as soon as I'd made half decent gains and missed most of the current run.

The question is when or if, as some predict, it drops the volatility and becomes the safe haven when the wider market crashes. I don't think we are there yet but am no expert. Taleb tweeted last week that he'd sold all his because the ongoing volatility suggests the experiment has failed. (Or having got out near the top he wanted to help it crash.)

[tomtom]

I stupidly sold mine as soon as I'd made half decent gains and missed most of the current run.

I did the same - but - its not stupid, we still made a decent return! Just not as good as it could have been if we had a crystal ball!

[Johnny Brown]

No, it was stupid to sell it all. Should have taken half out or just the increase.

[petejh]

From the two previous big BTC bull runs I'd suggest if/ when it does correct it will not be long before it is back down below $20k and $12k would not be unlikely, followed by a fairly long (18 months period) of fairly stagnant fluctuations ~$20k before another big run to >$100k. But yeah there's a good chance of a brief bounce if you've got the time to watch carefully and move fast. Having sat through the last long stagnant period I stupidly sold mine as soon as I'd made half decent gains and missed most of the current run.

The question is when or if, as some predict, it drops the volatility and becomes the safe haven when the wider market crashes. I don't think we are there yet but am no expert. Taleb tweeted last week that he'd sold all his because the ongoing volatility suggests the experiment has failed. (Or having got out near the top he wanted to help it crash.)

I purely use TA.. or rather others who know their trades' TA.. to enter/exit BTC. It has no fundamentals to speak of. It's just trading momentum and sentiment, so TA works well.
Northstar and Sahara have both been accurate in the last 12 months I've been following them. Northstar has it touching the 100 day moving average, which would be around 27 - 30,000 depending how long it takes to get there. Then peaking May/June at around 120-150k before an even stronger pullback.



The only certainty is that we'll find out.

https://twitter.com/NorthstarCharts

[tomtom]

Haha - people have been trying to find cycles in stocks since they were invented (cycles or stocks!) :D

Bon chance... I'm off to look at my tea leaves, statistically the same

[Johnny Brown]

Ah, great chart thanks. Log y axis makes so much more sense - followed.

[Bradders]

Right, so, the big crash is coming, right?

I'm seriously considering cashing my my returns from this year, and getting back in after a slump. I can cope with "missing gains".

So, what are the risk of this strategy:

• If it sits as cash too long, it'll be eroded by inflation.[1]
• I get it wrong, there is no crash - see point 1 above - that's just "missed gains", whatever...I've "missed £4k of ETH "GAINZ" this year, pretty much over it.

Any more?

I'm happy enough with "riding out a dip" as I have no need for the cash short term but with all the shit going on in the world, I do feel it could be a long, protracted flatline....






1- would it be worth hedging against inflation? I guess metals are the usual hedges?

Good post from Pete. Some other thoughts (all personal views):

- It depends what you're investing in, but a significant degree of total return in mature markets is often derived from dividends and other distributions, especially when these are reinvested. If you're not holding, whilst you're avoiding potential volatility you're also missing out on this aspect of the total return. Especially in the "long protracted flatline" scenario.

- The game Coops posted is fun, but it makes a serious point; timing the markets is an impossibility. Your consideration should be how long you intend to remain invested before you need the money. If you can't afford to lose it, or there's any risk of becoming a forced seller, you shouldn't be investing that money.

- If you are really worried about markets falling that's saying more about your tolerance of risk than it is about how markets falling would actually affect your total returns (assuming you have a long time horizon). In that case, think about moving to lower risk rated securities or assets. Remember cash isn't the only alternative to equities; there are all sorts of other options available.

[petejh]

Haha - people have been trying to find cycles in stocks since they were invented (cycles or stocks!) :D

Bon chance... I'm off to look at my tea leaves, statistically the same

You're wrong but I can't be bothered debating, that's not what this thread is for. As the meme goes, enjoy staying poor.