[petejh]

This is all very interesting. I'm the anti-Pete, very cautious about money, so feel free to ignore me. However, my gut feeling says, when a small bouldering forum starts discussing stock-market tips it may be time to think carefully about whether you should be in the stock-market.

I mostly agree with that sentiment Duncan. However I've been trading stocks for over 20 years and many other posters on this thread are equally scarred experienced. You're only seeing this thread take some prominence on ukb mostly because I mentioned (perhaps a bit too candidly), in my entry in the 'best of 2020' thread, that I'd done particularly well on an investment. Some interest in an investing thread was displayed, so we started this thread.

I suggest that anyone who isn't interested in playing with money that they can easily afford to lose just ignores this thread. Investing is a hobby, like any other, and one which provides interest for those who like to do research and take a little risk. I mostly ignore the threads I'm not interested in.

As far as a market crash, like weather fronts there's always one on the way. It's just difficult to know exactly how close and how bad. But yes when your barber (or random climbing partner) gives you a stock tip, you should probably sell that stock.

I hope some insights from this thread will prove interesting and perhaps useful. Mine are mostly in high risk speculative markets. That I think is what most people are interested in losing ahem investing their disposable income in. As said at the beginning the risks should be known. Bottom line is I don't think anyone here needs a babysitter.

Quote from first page again:

Nothing posted on this thread constitutes investment advice!

Don't believe anything you read here, except this bit
Do always do your own research.
And never forget the investment world is full of people whose job is the skilled pumping or shorting of stocks by playing on your fear, greed and FOMO. They don't care if you lose all of your investment.

With that can we move past the concerned parents stage and continue sharing interesting investment ideas.

[csl]

This is all very interesting. I'm the anti-Pete, very cautious about money, so feel free to ignore me. However, my gut feeling says, when a small bouldering forum starts discussing stock-market tips it may be time to think carefully about whether you should be in the stock-market.

Or perhaps "whether you should be actively picking individual stocks in the stock-market".

https://www.wealthify.com/blog/time-in-the-market-versus-timing-the-market

[petejh]

Expanding on the forthcoming market crash (guaranteed sometime in the next 1 day to 15 years).

There's a lot of genuine fear out there at the moment among investors, that the GME short squeeze event risks being the trigger that leads to the next crash. Some institutions have lost billions covering short positions, now they're liquidating other, good quality, assets to pay for those loses. There's a fear that if this behaviour spreads - i.e. private investors coordinating to attack large institutional short positions - then it could cause a massive liquidation by institutions covering their positions because they're fearful of becoming the next Melvin / Citron. If that happens the many investors in value companies will be the losers.

Looked at another way it's a massive opportunity for whoever's brave enough to take advantage. But it's very weird times when there are currently usually rational investors taking money out of safer value stocks to knowingly buy into pump n dump shitcos being inflated by social-media organised mass-buying. It's almost a no-brainer risk/reward situation for some who time it cautiously. But it's causing volatility all over the market. One example - Eurasia Mining briefly lost 45% in value this week when a large holder sold all their shares, rumoured to be because they needed to cover a short position in another company under attack by Reddit'ers.

Physical Silver seemingly the next short squeeze. If that succeeds the market fallout could be massive from large institutions selling off to cover. Silver already up and poised to breakout. Loads of shitty silver miners/explorers currently bubbling upwards in price as a side effect.. easy money to be made for some along with big losses for many. 

[Andy W]

This is all very interesting. I'm the anti-Pete, very cautious about money, so feel free to ignore me. However, my gut feeling says, when a small bouldering forum starts discussing stock-market tips it may be time to think carefully about whether you should be in the stock-market.

My gut feeling is that once a small bouldering forum starts discussing stock-market tips it may be time to ask yourself, in the words of David Bryne "Well... how did I get here?"

[spidermonkey09]

it turns out that they transformed one fuck-all into a few fuck-alls - what was the point?

In fairness, although I know nothing about investing this is the exact pattern my gambling on sport takes. I rarely if ever have more than a tenner on anything and its usually nearer 2 quid. Its peanuts, but it still satisfies me when I get it right; I imagine that is what attracts people to small scale trading as well?

[mburke]

I think that's true - I think the kind of stuff that I find concerning is when people think they're buying stocks, when they're actually betting on the price movement. Lots of platforms just sell you the opportunity to place expectations, usually referred to as contracts for difference or something like that. You don't physically own anything, no voting rights, no capital value.

Having spent my adult life studying/teaching finance the only investment I have is a diversified stocks and shares ISA.

[AndyR]

...

https://www.mining.com/all-the-mines-tesla-needs-to-build-20-million-cars-a-year/

Also good to know what goes on in the world to make your new EV, some of it isn't pretty. At least mining ESG is beginning to become more of a thing. The EV revolution will hopefully strengthen mining standards.

Or if you’re not interested in investing in extractive processes, you could instead look at companies starting battery recycling facilities https://www.wired.co.uk/article/electric-car-battery-recycling

Currently works ok-ish for the nickel and cobalt chemicals - doesn’t really work for the lithium. Plus given the demand growth forecast over the next 10-15 years, combined with the longevity of the batteries (approx 10-15 yrs), recycling will be a rounding error in the supply chain for the coming generation of electric vehicles and stationary storage projects.

[teestub]

Currently works ok-ish for the nickel and cobalt chemicals - doesn’t really work for the lithium. Plus given the demand growth forecast over the next 10-15 years, combined with the longevity of the batteries (approx 10-15 yrs), recycling will be a rounding error in the supply chain for the coming generation of electric vehicles and stationary storage projects.

Sounds like a good time to put in a long term investment then 😄

[tomtom]

I think that's true - I think the kind of stuff that I find concerning is when people think they're buying stocks, when they're actually betting on the price movement. Lots of platforms just sell you the opportunity to place expectations, usually referred to as contracts for difference or something like that. You don't physically own anything, no voting rights, no capital value.

Having spent my adult life studying/teaching finance the only investment I have is a diversified stocks and shares ISA.

Indeed. Betting on the wiggle.

I have a couple of hundred quid (well it stated at that and is now about 600) that I bet on crypto. It is nothing more than watching the wiggles every couple of days and buying when it’s lower and selling when it’s higher. I have no idea whatsoever what is controlling the price. Got some ripple at the moment. No idea how that works 😁 but it rises and falls fairly regularly.

I quite like that. Just playing the noise.

[Falling Down]

It’s so interesting that this (great) thread emerged just a few days before the Reddit vs. Hedge battle.

Hats off to you Pete for the insight and courage to pull off a life changing investment.

Our gas engineer popped round to service the boiler on Wednesday. He’s been a three or four year crypto  investor. Grew up on a council estate nearby, trained as a gas fitter. He’s jacking it in and moving to Senegal when he can, having made a fortune in Bitcoin, selling his house and motorbike to invest.

I winced when he said he hadn’t cashed any of it out. Not even skimmed off anything, so it’s all sat there in the blockchain.

Blimey.

[petejh]

As per Duncan's sentiment, I agree with you that a crash is on the way and probably overdue. I would hope that anyone who takes this stuff seriously realises the risks. This guy paints the picture pretty clearly for me: https://twitter.com/alexharfouche1/status/1334223427528519680/photo/1
It took me a looong time investing to learn how to get better at researching properly, detaching my emotion from the investment, not following the herd, and working out how to understand fair value. I'm still learning obvs. I *still* find it hard to buy when prices are falling and to sell when prices are rising. It's such an strong natural instinct to override. The best piece of pithy advice I read is 'buying in should never feel good, selling should always feel like you're losing out on further gains'.


Mburke, you sound a little like my girlfriend, she did a masters in business analysis and then worked for 6 months for an investment company (before realising it wasn't what she wanted to do).. But she never got into buying shares for herself. When I pointed out my trading platform was entirely online and low cost she was actually surprised I never talked to a broker and didn't pay large commission fees!  : )
I'd imagine most people here understand the difference between buying shares and playing with CFDs, futures, shorting etc. Most private investors don't bother getting into what you're talking about - buying shares is incredibly easy, there's no need to mess around with high risk contracts for difference and I don't think that's what posters here are interested in.

[mburke]

Yea I think I’m fairly detached on what people’s understanding is and what they trade with. The OECD did a survey on financial literacy which showed that only about half of people even understood interest rates. This is true in wealthy nations and across social groups.

I think it’s all a lot of work to do properly, the sort of analysis you’re talking about and fair play for doing it all.

[moose]

Off topic, but I'm mildly drunk, alone during a pandemic, and like an anecdote. 

I'm a dull person and even duller and safer when it comes to money.  Most of my spare cash is currently in low interest accounts that are probably losing value in real terms.  But in around 2005, a friend was an early enthusiast for online share trading. He realised that his favourite UK platform used a £/$ exchange rate from the previous night for shares purchased in dollars.  So, he devised an investment strategy whereby if the exchange rate had moved favourably compared to the value used by the share platform, we would trade in shares of US companies with very steady share prices - likely to stay static or maybe increase slightly (Microsoft and various huge oil and pharma companies).  It was basically a form of currency arbitrage but via share trading.  Keeping an eye on the currency and share values - and assessing if there would be any profit from a  trade after commission - was a lot of work but we had a friend who was a shut-in who had nothing better to do.  Eventually the share trading platform caught on  and used more up-to-date exchange rates - but we had around a year of very good profit, which was just as well as had I invested most of my year's PhD grant.

Aside from the odd sports bet, this is the only instance where I've felt like I've beaten "the man". But I can see how it would be addictive. My brother and dad spend hours every evening studying horse-racing form,  looking for edges. For them, a small profit earned via their own intelligence, beating the odds setters of William Hill etc., is worth far more than the same amount earned through the day job. Me, I take the safe option - work a bit of overtime instead - guaranteed earnings for my hours. I feel I'm an unimaginative mug but have more free time to read online beta about boulder problems in Ilkley!

[chris j]

I think it’s all a lot of work to do properly, the sort of analysis you’re talking about and fair play for doing it all.

Absolutely, I tried to do my own investing briefly with some petty cash a few years ago, soon realised I didn't have the time or patience to carry out research effectively.

[Johnny Brown]

This is why Bitcoin is so popular. It only takes an hour max of reading to understand the context, likely future and strong immunity from competition. (I would say this applies to Crypto overall but not so much to other cryptos than BC and to a lesser extent Eth. Others require lots of research like any investment.)

Then of course it's a question of whether you can profit from the volatility of have the balls to hodl ftw like FD's gas fitter.

Be interesting to see how BC fares in the coming big crash. It wasn't really around for the last one. Will it track closer to gold or stock?

[petejh]

Good info Habich I'll check out Yardeni. I use morningstar.
I've also recently started using Ortex financial analysis as a resource -  it's pricey if you pay.. £50 per month..
but I'm a member of a private telegram group and there are a few hundred people, we just each get a free on-month trial... and share the resource  : ) It's very good!

[Snoops]

Here's a question that puzzles me for all you Gordon Gecko's.....

If gold is a hedge against inflation and a crash in equities,  why does it crash when the stock market does?

It sold off in Feb/March this year along with equities, sold in 2001, sold off in the 2008 crash too?

[Ru]

Here's a question that puzzles me for all you Gordon Gecko's.....

If gold is a hedge against inflation and a crash in equities,  why does it crash when the stock market does?

It sold off in Feb/March this year along with equities, sold in 2001, sold off in the 2008 crash too?

I guess it's because many people/institutions hold both gold and equities. When equity markets go down quickly they need liquidity to meet margin calls. So they have to sell other assets like gold to get some quick cash.

[Snoops]

Here's a question that puzzles me for all you Gordon Gecko's.....

If gold is a hedge against inflation and a crash in equities,  why does it crash when the stock market does?

It sold off in Feb/March this year along with equities, sold in 2001, sold off in the 2008 crash too?

I guess it's because many people/institutions hold both gold and equities. When equity markets go down quickly they need liquidity to meet margin calls. So they have to sell other assets like gold to get some quick cash.

Thx for that, it’s logical.
Thing is though ergo Gold isn’t a great hedge against say the sp500 although it’s touted as one!

[Ru]

I used the word institutions incorrectly - I really just meant entities other than individual retail investors.

[petejh]

Imo it's better to invest in gold miners or royalty streaming companies rather than physical gold. Price of gold is leveraged in well-run mining companies as every dollar increase in PoG gives you a leveraged percentage increase in bottom line margin. Mining companies with extraction costs below the industry average do very well indeed. Current industry average extraction costs are around $1,100 while some of the best gold mining companies average below $900.

Physical gold/silver doesn't seem worth investing except for super wealthy to store away a few hundred thousand or million to cover times of extreme market volatility.

Seems the silver short squeeze was very short.. Have been reading around and seems the big boys did well out of it.

[Will Hunt]

Absolutely nothing to do with this, but a fun fact I heard recently. Do you know how much gold has ever been mined in the history of ever?



21.7m³. Wild.

[Ru]

Absolutely nothing to do with this, but a fun fact I heard recently. Do you know how much gold has ever been mined in the history of ever?

21.7m³. Wild.

Surely you mean 21.7³ m³? 21.7m³ would only be a cube of sides just under 3m in length.

[Coops_13]

Absolutely nothing to do with this, but a fun fact I heard recently. Do you know how much gold has ever been mined in the history of ever?

21.7m³. Wild.

Surely you mean 21.7³ m³? 21.7m³ would only be a cube of sides just under 3m in length.

The Will Hunt downgrade has reach Gold:
https://www.gold.org/about-gold/gold-supply/gold-mining/how-much-gold#:~:text=The%20best%20estimates%20currently%20available,in%20one%20form%20or%20another.

[Will Hunt]

FFS! 

As another aside, a friend of my brother's bought 100 GameStop shares at USD380 thinking it was a sure bet. He still hasn't sold as he's trying to decide what to do...