[moose]

The problem is that there's supposedly no previous instance of "natural" herd immunity. All examples of herd immunity have required vaccines. Look at measles - a huge R of around 20, you get lifelong immunity after infection, but we still had to vaccinate (too bloody late for me... same with rubella). And, the other common corona viruses, which cause colds, have never resulted in herd immunity despite their prevalence. 

[Muscle.Coach]

Yes to what? You’re speaking some sense. I said what you just said a way back when I first came on

[mrjonathanr]

Oh, the irony. .

[Muscle.Coach]

What’s ironic? Apart from your knob size.... and cheesy bell

[Oldmanmatt]

Apologies I've had quite a few beers so perhaps my point was lost. In basic terms - anyone who believes in natural herd immunity i. e. Let the young do what they will  + shielding the vulnerable, must surely advocate deliberate infection to get the whole thing over and done with. And if not, why not? Its the logical thing to do as it is what the desired end result is anyway, and would get us there quicker. We'll be creating a two tier society for a long time otherwise. I have yet to hear this argument, but surely if you hold the position then it at least has the virtue of honesty?

Pretty sure it’s the unsaid underpinning of the ethos.

Honestly, if I:
A/ Believed it was possible to achieve the segregation.
B/ Trusted that immunity was a given (despite this not being the case for any other (or many other) known coronaviruses).
C/ Felt willing to sacrifice all those who don’t yet know that they’re vulnerable.

Then I might feel it a viable “thing”.

Seriously, even if they don’t die, the hospital admissions, the sick days lost, the possibility of long term issues (I already mentioned the Commercial divers in my extended circle, who have lost their licence/failed medicals, somewhere on here. No idea how permanent that is yet) etc etc, just makes it  seem impossible to consider, even though I’m not an epidemiologist, virologist et al.

I defer to F-in-L, who is an old and bold senior doctor, and who generally sees it as all rather black and doom laden. The Stepmother-in-law, is a Cardiologist. She’s convinced there will never be a vaccine (we don’t have a great record with Coronaviruses).

[Oldmanmatt]

What’s ironic? Apart from your knob size.... and cheesy bell

Dude. Step away from the mirror.

If your “Bell” is cheesy, try showering occasionally.

Oh yeah:
https://www.google.com/search?q=ironic&rlz=1C9BKJA_enGB776GB776&oq=ironic&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i433l4j0.4411j0j7&hl=en-GB&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

[Muscle.Coach]

Can we have the funny one back please? This chump persona is a bit of a tedious self referential screed of ejaculate

[Muscle.Coach]

My diver buddies yadda yadda

[Oldmanmatt]

Can we have the funny one back please? This chump persona is a bit of a tedious self referential screed of ejaculate

You are, rather self referential, yes, definitely tedious and I’ll defer to your obviously greater knowledge of the flavour of ejaculate, but I don’t think you’ve managed funny yet.
But you have tried, I suppose, just not very hard.

Or are you actually “giving it your all”?

I hope not...

[Oldmanmatt]

My diver buddies yadda yadda

Do they?

Do your diver buddies “yadda”?

To be fair, this seems unlikely.

PS:
Your left hand doesn’t count as either a “Buddie” or “Girlfriend”, your mum just told you that so you wouldn’t feel so lonely.

[Muscle.Coach]

Look pal, I don’t mind the banter but for the final time please leave my mum out of it.

[tomtom]

Given the latest ‘react’ study findings this morning (100k people tested every couple of weeks) that we’re at or very close to the max rates of transmission that we had back in March, I doubt how much longer we’ll have local lockdowns (ie national one to come soon...).

[gollum]

I predict a week of government denial, followed by a week of ‘considering all options’, followed by a week of ‘becoming an inevitability’, followed by ‘it’s happening tomorrow, (unless it’s late in the week and then we’ll leave it until Monday when people can have one last blast over the weekend and then we can blame them for being irresponsible afterwards)’.

[Nigel]

You're predicting they'll prevaricate? As sure a bet as you'll ever place!

My prediction - incremental addition to tier 3 until things get so bad that everywhere in England is in at least tier 3 over Christmas and New year. That way they avoid a vote on it in Parliament, dodge a difficult fronting up about the realities of Christmas (which they are currently dodging but should come clean about), plus they can delay the downsides of brexit day as it will happen while everyone is effectively locked down.

[Muscle.Coach]

Another lockdown should help us jog along towards the great economic reset. Possibly worth some short term misery for the huge opportunity that awaits us. I’m surprised this forum doesn’t use the ‘build back better’ slogan on the lips of politicians around the world

https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/

Interesting article about rebuilding capitalism for you pseudo leftists

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/to-build-back-better-we-must-reinvent-capitalism-heres-how/

[moose]

You're predicting they'll prevaricate? As sure a bet as you'll ever place!

My prediction - incremental addition to tier 3 until things get so bad that everywhere in England is in at least tier 3 over Christmas and New year. That way they avoid a vote on it in Parliament, dodge a difficult fronting up about the realities of Christmas (which they are currently dodging but should come clean about), plus they can delay the downsides of brexit day as it will happen while everyone is effectively locked down.

Perhaps delay into January -  to minimise interference with the January sales - "Keep Safe. Keep Spending".

[Oldmanmatt]

Another lockdown should help us jog along towards the great economic reset. Possibly worth some short term misery for the huge opportunity that awaits us. I’m surprised this forum doesn’t use the ‘build back better’ slogan on the lips of politicians around the world

https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/

You are getting closer to funny.

Unfortunately you seem to have arrived at “Jim Davidson”, level 1, which has been comprehensively debunked in several major studies. Around 25 years ago.
The most widely cited paper on this (with a sample cohort over almost 6 billion at the time) was Dr O.M.G. Everybody, Et Al, 1997.

[Oldmanmatt]

You're predicting they'll prevaricate? As sure a bet as you'll ever place!

My prediction - incremental addition to tier 3 until things get so bad that everywhere in England is in at least tier 3 over Christmas and New year. That way they avoid a vote on it in Parliament, dodge a difficult fronting up about the realities of Christmas (which they are currently dodging but should come clean about), plus they can delay the downsides of brexit day as it will happen while everyone is effectively locked down.

Perhaps delay into January -  to minimise interference with the January sales - "Keep Safe. Keep Spending".

I don’t think they’ll manage that long.

By the end of the first week of November, the hospitals will be swamped and the numbers enough to break through the walls of even this numbed and weary population.

Edit:
I do agree they’ll try to extend it to cover the Brexit bollock drop. A lockdown will minimise the lorry jam and if it can be drawn out until they actually manage a solution/fudge/mini-deal, I’m sure they’ll try.

[lagerstarfish]

You're predicting they'll prevaricate? As sure a bet as you'll ever place!

My prediction - incremental addition to tier 3 until things get so bad that everywhere in England is in at least tier 3 over Christmas and New year. That way they avoid a vote on it in Parliament, dodge a difficult fronting up about the realities of Christmas (which they are currently dodging but should come clean about), plus they can delay the downsides of brexit day as it will happen while everyone is effectively locked down.

Perhaps delay into January -  to minimise interference with the January sales - "Keep Safe. Keep Spending".

[tomtom]

Whilst I’d normally be happy at Labour knocking a spot off the Tories - obstacle to getting on with it (lockdown2) is that Labour said we should circuit breaker a couple of weeks ago. So obvs the Tories will have to come up with their own version.

Tier 3 won’t be enough. We (Manchester) have been in T2+ since late July and honestly - there’s no difference between that and T3 to how we’re going about our lives.

The local lockdown vs national is a seductive idea. But ultimately will fall flat on its face due to implementing it. Eg When London gets locked down and second home owners start migrating to Cornwall / Cotswolds again... or at a more local scale - plenty of anecdotes about drinkers from Bolton nipping over ‘the border’ into Lancs for a session when all the pubs were shut there. We’re just too densely populated - and interwoven (both work and family spread) for local to work ultimately imho.

[Muscle.Coach]

Another lockdown should help us jog along towards the great economic reset. Possibly worth some short term misery for the huge opportunity that awaits us. I’m surprised this forum doesn’t use the ‘build back better’ slogan on the lips of politicians around the world

https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/

You are getting closer to funny.

Unfortunately you seem to have arrived at “Jim Davidson”, level 1, which has been comprehensively debunked in several major studies. Around 25 years ago.
The most widely cited paper on this (with a sample cohort over almost 6 billion at the time) was Dr O.M.G. Everybody, Et Al, 1997.

Sign up here mate

https://www.buildbackbetteruk.org/

[Muscle.Coach]

After reading this stuff about reset and other benefits I’m starting to wonder if we can make the best out of a bad situation. Give nature a chance, slow climate change, improve standards of living to name a few. Maybe this situation can be turned around eh chaps.

[Fiend]

Didn't post this when I first made it, but....

[Muscle.Coach]

Haha that’s pretty funny, not true tho is it cos every fucker is wearing them

[JamieG]

Not when I popped out to get a take-away coffee from the cafe today. Loads of people sitting in a relatively small enclosed space without masks on chatting away. Seems like madness to me, especially since rates around us are high and we are in Tier 3. But there we are.