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Local Lockdowns (Read 65401 times)

galpinos

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#225 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 10:00:35 am
So no-one’s interested in fact checking themselves then?

TT?
Teestub?
Galpinos?
Jonathanr?
Spider?
GME?


No-one? The figures were detailed in black and white on newsnight. Is one of you going to realise your facts are wrong?

I'm currently trying to write a narrative justifying a £770k overspend on my current project so haven't got time to watch a whole episode of newsnight. The project control software delays allow for a quick browse of UKB only, though I am looking forward to seeing the FACTS and the source.

petejh

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#226 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 10:03:51 am
Figures are there in plain sight for anyone to see. Many are choosing not to see.

There are two funding packages:
1. TTTI, Enforcement. (TTI/E)
2. Business Relief. (BR)

Liverpool: £44million
£14m TTI/E, £30m BR
1.5million people £29 per head

Lancashire £42million,
£12m TTI/E, £30m BR
1.5million people, £29 per head

Greater Manchester: £22 million, £82 million
£22m TTI/E, £60m BR
2.8 million people, £29 per head

Burnham was fighting for £90m total, but would have settled for an extra £5m on top of the £60m. To make £87m total.

It really isn't difficult unless you're myopic. Sure the government are totally wank at communication, no arguments there from me.
But the media in this case have obfuscated as well - which worries me a lot that they would play the 'outcry' game with public health. It's actually there in some of the news report if you really pay attention to the small print at the bottom of some BBC articles.
You lot are idiots for going along with the outcry based on incorrect figures. I await you're admissions of being too easily misled by the media (especially 'social' media) but won't hold my breath.

In fact, as Will posted, Burnham has been haggling over 5 - 8 million pounds. Neither side look great but..

8mins 30secs.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000np5f/newsnight-20102020

 ::)
« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 10:19:47 am by petejh »

mrjonathanr

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#227 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 10:10:05 am
But the media in this case have obfuscated as well - which worries me a lot that they would play the 'outcry' game with public health.

Care to explain this?

James Malloch

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#228 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 10:13:22 am
Sheffield and S Yorks going into T3 on Saturday night. https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-sheffield-city-region-gets-tougher-restrictions-as-1-8-million-people-head-for-tier-3-12109984

Meanwhile Gyms can open now in Liverpool...

This is one of the big issues I have with a lot of things going on at the moment... Lots of decisions going on without any evidence to back them up.

The mayor of Liverpool said:

Quote
Last week Government imposed Tier 3 restrictions on our region – forcing our gyms to close.

Since then we've been in constant dialogue to make them provide evidence for that decision - or reverse it.

They have now agreed to reverse their original decision and let gyms open.

James Malloch

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#229 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 10:15:56 am
Figures are there in plain sight for anyone to see. Many are choosing not to see.

There are two funding packages:
1. TTTI, Enforcement. (TTI/E)
2. Business Relief. (BR)

Liverpool: £44million
£14m TTI/E, £30m BR
1.5million people £29 per head

Lancashire £42million,
£12m TTI/E, £30m BR
1.5million people, £29 per head

Greater Manchester: £22 million, £82 million
£22m TTI/E, £60m BR
2.8 million people, £29 per head

Burnham was fighting for £90m total, but would have settled for an extra £5m on top of the £60m. To make £87m total.

It really isn't difficult unless you're myopic. Sure the government are totally wank at communication, no arguments there from me.
But the media in this case have obfuscated as well - which worries me a lot that they would play the 'outcry' game with public health. It's actually there in some of the news report if you really pay attention to the small print at the bottom of some BBC articles.
You lot are idiots for going along with the outcry based on incorrect figures.

8mins 30secs.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000np5f/newsnight-20102020

 ::)

£29 per head seems very low, as an aside. Is there a time-frame that it's meant to cover? Or is that it for now until counties emerge from tier 3?

Nigel

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#230 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 10:18:25 am
If there were a formula that the govt were using (population or breakdown of businesses/people affected) then this would be a lot clearer. But there isn’t.

Agree TT, this seems like the root problem. Ideal would be a transparent breakdown, in advance, of the public health data / calculation that prompts tier 3 measures, and a pre-agreed financial assistance package, broken down perhaps as you suggest. Then when its Tier 3 time everyone is already signed up and it just happens. The fact that there is a need for horsetrading is evidence enough of a poor strategy. That said I think Greater Manchester, and indeed everyone, would accept the current way if financial assistance was 80% full stop, rather than 67%. That is the other root problem. Looked at that way the fact that the difference amounts to somewhere in the low millions is just penny pinching.

On the time front it has always been within the government's gift to impose Tier 3 at any time, they are also culpable for dragging this out. Apparently the situation is now urgent. Begins on....Friday.

There is also the added problem of lack of transparency on exiting Tier 3. When will the North leave these high restrictions? The way some people talk you'd think it'd be a matter of a couple of weeks. If its not (as is possible) then the government will have real problems with Christmas, New Year, and then the effects of Brexit. And because its a regional approach then they have dodged the requirement for parliament to vote on it as they have only promised a vote on national measures. So the North is relying on Tier 3 measures which even the scientists say are insufficient unless supplemented by extra measures from councils, which are being underfunded to take these measures, and with only the goodwill of the Tory party to allow them out of it. It doesn't look like a recipe for success.

galpinos

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#231 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 10:24:24 am
Figures are there in plain sight for anyone to see. Many are choosing not to see.

There are two funding packages:
1. TTTI, Enforcement. (TTI/E)
2. Business Relief. (BR)

Liverpool: £44million
£14m TTI/E, £30m BR
1.5million people £29 per head

Lancashire £42million,
£12m TTI/E, £30m BR
1.5million people, £29 per head

Greater Manchester: £22 million, £82 million
£22m TTI/E, £60m BR
2.8 million people, £29 per head

Burnham was fighting for £90m total, but would have settled for an extra £5m on top of the £60m. To make £87m total.

It really isn't difficult unless you're myopic. Sure the government are totally wank at communication, no arguments there from me.
But the media in this case have obfuscated as well - which worries me a lot that they would play the 'outcry' game with public health. It's actually there in some of the news report if you really pay attention to the small print at the bottom of some BBC articles.
You lot are idiots for going along with the outcry based on incorrect figures.

8mins 30secs.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000np5f/newsnight-20102020

 ::)

I know you are saying these are the facts, but Andy Burnham might disagree. Just because it was said confidently on newsnight, doesn't mean that that is correct! You need to do some googling.....

 He was after £90m as business relief and the government offered £60. He had been given a bottom figure of £65m by the local councils. This was a "fully costed" figure, not a random per capita value. When the discussions broke down, the £60m offer was taken away and GM were told the government would negotiate with individual councils and NOT Andy Burnham.

The government then rolled back on that and said the £60m was available.

Stu Littlefair

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#232 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 10:26:46 am
If the govt does actually provide the £60M business support to GMC, you can look at Pete's post and retro-fit the Govt's fiendishly complex formula to see it's.... £29 per person.

Which does rather beg the question of what all these "regional negotiations" are for?

On a related note, now that Sheffield is going into Tier 3, but Derbyshire is not, how many of us are going to be good boys and girls, follow the guidance, and not go climbing in the Peak? Edit: already being discussed elsewhere

galpinos

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#233 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 10:29:29 am
I think part of the issue here Pete is there is nothing on paper from the govt. Jenkins says one thing, Boris then can’t answer the question (asked 5 times) in his presser and Hancock is equally opaque on ££ in parliament after.

If there were a formula that the govt were using (population or breakdown of businesses/people affected) then this would be a lot clearer. But there isn’t.

Jenrick says £8 a head test and trace, £20 a head Business Support.

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1318835055217836032?s=20

(Edited to add the link)
« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 10:37:55 am by galpinos »

Paul B

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#234 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 10:31:34 am
You lot are idiots for going along with the outcry based on incorrect figures.

:tumble:

So at ~9:30 when LG says "MH has said that the £60M for BR is 'still on the table'"... he goes on to say it's unclear as to what GM need to do to secure it.

Or is your point that the offer is 'fair' based on what others have received?

EDIT:  what galpinos said.

petejh

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#235 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 10:45:38 am
Seriously?!
'We'll take the offer' would be my suggestion...

The point is: the figures of 22m, 60m, 65m are all incorrect figures to base arguments on. The true figure is as per the Liverpool and Lancashire figures per head. So Manchester's support is at least equitable in the context of what other areas have received. Which is exactly what the government said if you listened.

Whether or not it's a 'fair' figure is an entirely different debate..
I don't actually think it is 'fair'. I think we should be supporting people to a far greater extent then what's on offer. The 80% figure for all affected by the covid legislation is closer to my idea of fair.

But bullshitting around incorrect figures is inexcusable.

tomtom

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#236 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 10:53:07 am
But bullshitting around incorrect figures is inexcusable.

Why Pete - are we having to try and calculate the figures (TTI and per person) by back calculating from the governments awards to Liverpool and Lancs - rather than being told this is how this is calculated!!

If Boris - instead of blustering and not knowing the answer yesterday - had been on his brief yesterday and said "we offered what we had to the other areas - which equates to £29 per head for TTI and business relief - which for GM was £60m - and they refused this" then I think NONE of this faff about the numbers would have happened.

But that did not happen. And Hancock had the chance 2-3 hours later in the house to say as much.

From my perspective - the "bullshitting around figures" has originated from (a) people wanting to know what they are and (b) the govt not telling us how its worked out!!

FFS/Face Palm/etc...

petejh

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#237 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 10:57:23 am
I can only assume you're joking or have had a memory-erasing episode TT?

In every news piece I read and every interview I watched yesterday, the government were saying, or were quoted as saying 'as per the other areas in Tier 3', 'in line with other tier 3 areas', 'don't want to be unfair to other tier 3 areas', 'equitable for all other tier 3 areas'.

But ah yes..... it's ENTIRELY the fault of a government for being shit at comms (which they are) and NOTHING at all to do with the story portrayed in the media outlets and on social media. Despite the media outlets actually knowing the true breakdown of the BR and TTI/E because, you know, they actually mentioned it in the small print that most people don't bother reading beyond the first paragraph, and then reported it on national TV at the end of the day.

Facepalm indeed. Idiots.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 11:02:57 am by petejh »

Paul B

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#238 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 11:04:07 am
Pete, I'm directly quoting your source back at you which makes the same point as others have now done a matter of seconds later.

Local journalists who have been excellent throughout this have the same question. It's difficult to say something (+£60M) is still on the table when there's currently no table.

Also it being equitable hasn't been the aim (from the offset) that I've seen, it's about it being sufficient and GM being more questioning than other regions after spending a significant amount of time already in T2. If the £ per head is set, then why the pretence of negotiations?

Anyway, I've got to drive a long way now so over to others...

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#239 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 11:04:54 am
Pete - people are using these figures because they’re the ones that have been bandied about by politicians in the first place and then used by the media to report it. It’s not the fault of ‘the media’ or obfuscation by them if the government chooses to announce the financial settlements in those terms. Neither is it wrong for people to discuss on here based on the figures that have been widely used by the govt.

As TT says the govt have had ample opportunity to announce these financial settlements in whatever way they wanted to, or correct it if it looked like it was getting confused or misrepresented. £29/head is pretty simple to understand if that’s how it’s been decided. But for whatever reason they’ve chosen not to go down this route. Probably because £29 is a smaller number than £60million. Who is guilty of obfuscation here?

galpinos

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#240 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 11:07:18 am
Seriously?!
'We'll take the offer' would be my suggestion...

Kiss the ring and accept what your betters give you and be thankful?

The point is: the figures of 22m, 60m, 65m are all incorrect figures to base arguments on.

Really? You don't think they inform the debate? Is this just because you got the £90m number wrong?

The true figure is as per the Liverpool and Lancashire figures per head. So Manchester's support is at least equitable in the context of what other areas have received. Which is exactly what the government said if you listened.

This I agree with and a lot of pain could have been avoided if the government had said this is the formula, there's no debate, that's it.

Whether or not it's a 'fair' figure is an entirely different debate..
I don't actually think it is 'fair'. I think we should be supporting people to a far greater extent then what's on offer. The 80% figure for all affected by the covid legislation is closer to my idea of fair.

But bullshitting around incorrect figures is inexcusable.

One of Andy Burnham's main point, which seems to have been cut out of the national media debate, was just this, that the money available to the lowest paid is not enough. If both my wife and I ended up on a furlough style scheme on 60%, money would be tight but we'd be fine. At the minimum wage end of the scale, that's a loss of home/can't afford to eat scenario.

spidermonkey09

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#241 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 11:14:26 am
I'm still not convinced this is the 'gotcha' that Pete thinks. Burnham and MCR are agitating for more than Liverpool, London, Lancs etc have got because they've stood up to the governments penny pinching, because it isn't enough. Its not an issue of it being equitable; I don't think I've made that argument?

The government's line seems to be 'we aren't just underfunding Manchester, we're underfunding everywhere else in the north west as well; so everything is nice and fair. Manchester isn't being singled out, we're doing it to everyone. I don't understand Burnham's problem?' He's made the argument consistently that this isn't about Manchester, its about every city because almost all of them are going to end up in Tier 3 eventually and this will set the precedent of support.


Will Hunt

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#242 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 11:22:22 am
It was bleeding obvious that there was going to be a second wave combined with the usual winter pressures. It should have been planned for. It shouldn't have had to start before people started to come up with the three tier approach (which SAGE clearly don't have faith in). There should be an adequate financial provision for those whose jobs are affected or who have to temporarily close their businesses. It shouldn't be down to regional leaders to hash out an agreement such that Mancs might end up with a better or worse deal than Scousers. As more and more regions go into Tier 3 the workload will become unmanageable so the process drags out and regional inconsistency emerges. And that negotiating time is precious time lost when what we know about anti-COVID measures is that they need to be enacted rapidly. The proposed help fund seems incredibly small. £60m dropped into the Greater Manchester area is a fraction of fuck all.

That much is on the government, who are not only cruel but also feckless in their cruelty. Rest assured, I vote against them at every opportunity.

What's on Burnham (who I am normally a fan of, and who I haven't made up my mind out about this) is that he was asked to go into Tier 3 restrictions and it is now a week later and that still hasn't happened. He is right to challenge the government - it is his duty to protect the interests of his citizens - but by the same token he needs to consider their health and there will, without doubt, be a lot of people in Manchester who will become acutely or chronically unwell and will die because the restrictions have been delayed. What's more, this has now become (in the eyes of many) an issue of the North vs Whitehall as opposed to a public health measure. I expect there will be a lot of non-compliance in Manchester in defiance of the government (a bloke walked into the charity shop where my mother volunteers in Liverpool and said he wasn't wearing a mask because "I'm not doing anything the government tell me"). Tier 3 is of limited enough effect; who knows how ineffective it might be with poor compliance?

That's why it's important to understand what exactly was on the table and what that might be used for. Without that information we can't really understand whether Burnham's demands were worth the increased risk to the population. If it were to come down to a quibble over £5m (I doubt it did) then it should end him. Even the difference of £60m is paltry. It's hard to express just how microscopic that is in the context of local spending in the area. The annual spend of the Greater Manchester Combined Authority (the bit that Burnham leads) is around £1.3 billion. Then there's the Manchester City Council which has an annual spend of around £1.8 billion - that is just one of the ten councils in the Combined Authority area.

I still fundamentally disagree with your premise that quibbling over £5m somehow reflects worse on Burnham than the government. If its such a piddling amount then its the government who should have wound their neck in and stumped up for the sake of compliance and public health, rather than flouncing out and briefing the media. You're applying higher standards to local leaders than you are to government; reading between the lines your argument seems to be 'this government are shit and cruel, but instead of challenging their shitty behaviour Manchester should simply take the paltry money on the table as its all they are going to get anyway.' You might be right from a pure politics perspective (although I'm not convinced) but if a local leader doesn't stand up for their constituents then there is no point to them. By contrast, Sadiq Khan (who is obviously still the best person for the job regardless of this criticism) has rolled over and had his tummy tickled by the government, who have since doubled down and threatened to take control of TfL. It makes perfect sense to me that Burnham has stuck to his guns.

Whats interesting is that there seems to be significant cut through and there is no massive backlash against Burnham, because they know he has a point. Theres a few Tory MPs briefing against him but not brave enough to go on the record because they are swimming against the political tide. https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1318805466995097600


I think you misunderstand me, Jim. I'm not saying that the Tories aren't cunts, and I'm not saying that this reflects worse on Burnham than them. The scale of their fuck up is orders of magnitude higher than anything that Burnham might have done wrong. They should have a plan for business relief in place that is consistent and able to be delivered quickly. The business relief provision looks pathetic to me. How many people are employed in affected sectors in Greater Manchester? Thousands and thousands and thousands of people, many of whom will be expected to get through the winter trying to pay their bills and rents on 2/3rds of the minimum wage. The Tories shouldn't have just bunged them an extra £5m, the scale of the problem is so much greater than that.

Burnham and the leaders of all the local authorities should be challenging the government on this, but with Burnham being such a well-known and well-liked politician there's no reason that they couldn't have taken it to the Tories and whipped up a storm in the press at the same time that the extra restrictions went through. Nobody here seems prepared to recognise the fact that a week's delay to restrictions when the problem is growing exponentially necessarily means a higher body count (and more people with long COVID). The question I originally posed is whether the additional money was worth the delay. Burnham's response to the BBC journo may have been impassioned and emotional, but it can't hide the simple maths that a £5m difference in Greater Manchester is incredibly small beer (my fag packet says somewhere in the region of 0.02% of the total annual spend of the CA and the ten local authorities).


Edit: apologies if this doesn't make complete sense. 13 replies posted since I began the reply!

spidermonkey09

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#243 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 11:33:38 am

there's no reason that they couldn't have taken it to the Tories and whipped up a storm in the press at the same time that the extra restrictions went through. Nobody here seems prepared to recognise the fact that a week's delay to restrictions when the problem is growing exponentially necessarily means a higher body count (and more people with long COVID). The question I originally posed is whether the additional money was worth the delay.


Thats a fair enough post, although I'm not sure Burnham would have had much of a leg to stand on had he accepted the money and restrictions and then gone on the warpath about it not being enough. I appreciate thats a point of opinion though.

Yeah, the body count issue is relevant. But then if it was that urgent, the government could have simple enforced things unilaterally. As it is, its so urgent they are bringing it in...in a few days.

I suppose I don't think the public health issue can be totally outsourced to local leaders. Thats at least half on the government too, surely? Obviously Burnham should have that in mind, but the government should too.

petejh

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#244 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 11:33:52 am
Pete, I'm directly quoting your source back at you which makes the same point as others have now done a matter of seconds later.

Local journalists who have been excellent throughout this have the same question. It's difficult to say something (+£60M) is still on the table when there's currently no table.

Also it being equitable hasn't been the aim (from the offset) that I've seen, it's about it being sufficient and GM being more questioning than other regions after spending a significant amount of time already in T2. If the £ per head is set, then why the pretence of negotiations?

Anyway, I've got to drive a long way now so over to others...

None of that alters the point I made. Which is: people are basing their arguments on incorrect figures - the sum per head offered to GM is the same sum per head offered to all other tier 3 regions.
This was made clear by the government if you listened to what they said, but not made clear in the media. Most media just reported misleading figures, you had to dig into the figures to discover the truth but it really isn't very complex as the breakdown I posted shows. Was that them whipping up a story...?

This mess partly contributed to public outcry over perceived inequity between GM and other areas, and delays in taking action. In a public health emergency that's inexcusable. This isn't a defence of the tories it's simply a defense of sticking to facts instead of hearsay. Typical bullshit when politics takes over.

All other points about the support not being enough are an entirely separate debate - see my answer above. I agree.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 11:41:16 am by petejh »

tomtom

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#245 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 11:40:36 am
- the sum per head offered to GM is the same sum per head offered to all other tier 3 regions. This was made clear by the government if you listened to what they said, but not made clear in the media.

Pete - please provide a link for this. Government press release, relevant section in Hansard please? I guess a tweet from a government department would count too...

petejh

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#246 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 11:41:45 am
You seem to accept tweets from everyone else as evidence TT?

tomtom

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#247 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 11:44:37 am
You seem to accept tweets from everyone else as evidence TT?
Now you're trolling properly Pete..

petejh

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#248 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 11:47:26 am
It doesn't alter the point I've made that people have been using bullshit figures to base their opinions and arguments on.

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#249 Re: Local Lockdowns
October 21, 2020, 11:47:44 am
Nobody here seems prepared to recognise the fact that a week's delay to restrictions when the problem is growing exponentially necessarily means a higher body count (and more people with long COVID).
This argument would have some/more force if the Tier 3 measures were something other than toothless handwaving.
Is it just me that thinks they amount to more pain for no gain and an exercise in appearing to do something whilst we wait for things to get so shit that a full lockdown becomes politically unavoidable?
There's so many exceptions, loopholes and perverse incentives that in many case the measure will likely increase transmission. E.g. from our small perspective, more climbers choosing to climb indoors because they can't travel to outdoor venues.

 

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