[petejh]

I predict an increase in scouse accents at the Beacon after Wednesday if the Welsh government don't lockdown Gwynedd...
That's the absurdity of different rules between England and Wales/Scotland, as if the virus gives a shit about which country it spreads in. 

[mark20]

From BBC news= "The prime minister confirms that most areas already subject to local restrictions - on top of the national rules - will automatically move into the "high alert" category - that is, tier 2.
In addition Nottinghamshire, east and west Cheshire, and a small area of the High Peak will also move into that tier, he says, after a rise in cases in those areas."

So places like Leeds and Manchester with lockdowns already, move straight into High (tier 2), as that's pretty much what they're doing now anyway.
Nottinghamshire and East/West Cheshire will join them - these have around 100-150k cases in the last week https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/11/covid-cases-and-deaths-today-coronavirus-uk-map

Sheffield has 350+ cases in the last week. Roughly the same, if not more, than the Leeds and Manchester areas. But no mention of Sheffield even moving into High (tier 2) - presumably because the Gov are still discussing with local leaders to put Sheffield straight into Tier 3 ?

[Duncan campbell]

Nooooo 

[Paul B]

Should shut the fuckers up about me kneebaring or toe hooking on the School board at least 

This is just the reverse of #biggradesforbadsequences. Nobody would care if you took #appropriategradesfortheeasiestsequence (although I'll admit the 'tag needs work). It's like that time you told me that it felt 'natural' to try and wrap your leg around the back of the board  .

So places like Leeds and Manchester with lockdowns already, move straight into High (tier 2), as that's pretty much what they're doing now anyway.

I'd suspect this will be used against Andy Burnham in the (near) future. I think the main argument against Tier 3 in GM was simply that the measures to support businesses weren't viewed as sufficient and the Gov. didn't want an open revolt/legal challenge etc.

[teestub]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SCR_Mayor/status/1315651555195060224?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

This was on Graun live blog thing earlier, would seem to confirm Tier 2

[Andy F]

I predict an increase in scouse accents at the Beacon after Wednesday if the Welsh government don't lockdown Gwynedd...
That's the absurdity of different rules between England and Wales/Scotland, as if the virus gives a shit about which country it spreads in.

Nah, we'll all be at the Depot or Boulder UK...

[Will Hunt]

I think we're going into Tier 2. I'm really confused as to which way round the tiers are? Are we in the middle or the centre?

[Oldmanmatt]

I think we're going into Tier 2. I'm really confused as to which way round the tiers are? Are we in the middle or the centre?

You’re in Yellowty-two-ish(with red undertones and a hint of burgundy), just below Amberish-2.01-andabit (subtle hints of cherry and burnt umber).

[petejh]

There'll be tiers before bedtime.

[Oldmanmatt]

There'll be tiers before bedtime.

Tiers of a Clown...?

[Paul B]

I missed the announcement earlier but having watched it now I thought it was well delivered.

I'm slightly surprised to see Lancashire effectively having easing (I'm allowed to have people in my garden now) given the way the rates are heading.

Likewise, the clusterfuck that was local variations gone mad has just moved to Tier 3 so hopefully they listen to local leaders and the same situation doesn't end up getting punted 'upwards'.

[tomtom]

This might be of interest (possibly should be in the main CV19 thread)

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf

Sage notes/analysis of the impact of different lockdown/mitigation measures. Gives the estimate impact on the R values. Notably, complete lockdown most effective by a long way with total lockdown doing the mostand the  Circuit Breaker (2 weeks) setting the virus progression back by 28 days. Next, closing HE and Schools reduces R by 0.2-0.5 respectively (not together). Then various other measures including hospitality closure...

Quite clear from this why SAGE and CWiddy were pushing for the circuit breaker.

[petejh]

Suspect the thinking is to keep back the 2-week ‘circuit breaker’ for use later. Don’t want to be seen by the public to have exhausted all options at the beginning of what will be seen to be a long autumn/winter.

[Oldmanmatt]

Suspect the thinking is to keep back the 2-week ‘circuit breaker’ for use later. Don’t want to be seen by the public to have exhausted all options at the beginning of what will be seen to be a long autumn/winter.

I think they have to have been seen to have tried, and failed, before they reach for the big guns.

Unfortunately, that’s probably correct, since (complaints about the government’s handling so far, not withstanding) because the Great British Public, include a good number of, what’s the word? Ah, yes... Wankers.

[TobyD]

This might be of interest (possibly should be in the main CV19 thread)

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf

Sage notes/analysis of the impact of different lockdown/mitigation measures. Gives the estimate impact on the R values. Notably, complete lockdown most effective by a long way with total lockdown doing the mostand the  Circuit Breaker (2 weeks) setting the virus progression back by 28 days. Next, closing HE and Schools reduces R by 0.2-0.5 respectively (not together). Then various other measures including hospitality closure...

Quite clear from this why SAGE and CWiddy were pushing for the circuit breaker.

They strongly advised it 3 weeks ago didn't they? But good old BJ just wanted a good while to argue with his party, and flit about fucking up Brexit, trying to install Charles Moore at the BBC, trying to take down the civil service etc. It's not like he could ever do one thing competently, let alone ten.

They seem to have misconstrued the WHO advice to manage the pandemic at a local level as keep trying to manage it centrally but divide the country as much as possible

[petejh]

Suspect the thinking is to keep back the 2-week ‘circuit breaker’ for use later. Don’t want to be seen by the public to have exhausted all options at the beginning of what will be seen to be a long autumn/winter.

I think they have to have been seen to have tried, and failed, before they reach for the big guns.

Unfortunately, that’s probably correct, since (complaints about the government’s handling so far, not withstanding) because the Great British Public, include a good number of, what’s the word? Ah, yes... Wankers.

You can call the public wankers but the reality is many people including many of us on here want to enjoy going to the wall for a climb, the pub for a pint, a meal in a restaurant, go to the coffee shop, or get on a plane/train for a trip - the sorts of activities that increase spread of the virus. We’re all part of the problem just by wanting as nice as possible a life.
The gov have an impossible balancing act to perform and are bound to fail.

[sdm]

Suspect the thinking is to keep back the 2-week ‘circuit breaker’ for use later. Don’t want to be seen by the public to have exhausted all options at the beginning of what will be seen to be a long autumn/winter.

I think they have to have been seen to have tried, and failed, before they reach for the big guns.

The problem with waiting before bringing out the big guns is that the longer you wait, the bigger the gun you need to bring out.

I think most people would have preferred a 2 week lockdown in September/October if it was explained that the alternative is probably a 4 week or 6 week lockdown in November/December.

[galpinos]

They strongly advised it 3 weeks ago didn't they? But good old BJ just wanted a good while to argue with his party, and flit about fucking up Brexit, trying to install Charles Moore at the BBC, trying to take down the civil service etc. It's not like he could ever do one thing competently, let alone ten.

The gossip in the tory circles is that BJ was keen for the circuit breaker but Rishi vetoed it, at the same time he vetoed closing pubs to leave us with the ridiculous 10pm closure compromise. Who knows what the true story is.....

[galpinos]

Personally, I think the Tier system is fine and the info is out there in a clear manner, the gov.uk page is clear on what the Tiers mean and who's in which Tier.

Being in Manchester, it feels weird that the restrictions are slackened slightly and I do think Andy Burnham is going to have a battle on his hands when the blame falls on his shoulders if the numbers go up as he seems to have pushed against Tier 3 for GM. I'm not sure it will have done Steve Rotheram much good to be seen to be in cahoots with BJ though.....

[Sidehaas]

It's not really a slackening in GM though? I know you can now have people to visit in your garden. But all social mixing indoors is now banned, whereas previously this was only the case in Merseyside and the NE. In Manchester the mixing ban was in private dwellings - you could meet up with friends in a pub, restaurant (or leisure venue like a climbing wall) as long as there were fewer than six of you and the venue was "Covid secure". Now you can't.

Edit to add, I highlight this because it was the measure that felt like it made the most difference and was most onerous when it came in here a fortnight ago. When the weather is bad it makes any form of socialising impossible.

[sdm]

This might be of interest (possibly should be in the main CV19 thread)

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf

Sage notes/analysis of the impact of different lockdown/mitigation measures. Gives the estimate impact on the R values. Notably, complete lockdown most effective by a long way with total lockdown doing the mostand the  Circuit Breaker (2 weeks) setting the virus progression back by 28 days. Next, closing HE and Schools reduces R by 0.2-0.5 respectively (not together). Then various other measures including hospitality closure...

Quite clear from this why SAGE and CWiddy were pushing for the circuit breaker.

The numbers regarding the impact on Rt are interesting when compared with the narrative on transmission leading to the local lockdowns.

Behaviours that were apparently responsible for the rapid spread in the worst hit areas are shown here as having negligible impacts on transmission.

[James Malloch]

I feel like we should just go for some kind of NZ scheme. Mandatory 14 day quarantine for international arrivals in airport hotels paid for by the government, and a strict lock down for 1-2 months until transmission gets to low levels that are manageable by test and trace. And also really invest to get it working properly. And provide proper support for this period to employees and businesses.

The loss of international visitors can't hurt the economy that much at this stage, surely, and if life could return to some normality in the medium term I'm sure that the UK public could prop everything up for quite sometime.

Surely it would be great for Boris to give everyone a low-risk Christmas and start 2021, and Brexit, in as normal way as possible...

[abarro81]

We were at low numbers and TTI didn't work, why do you think it would now?

Also, we're near the worst in Europe so importing some negative cases might help dilute the UK! https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

We came to Germany at the start of Sept and both UK and Germany were on 11 per 100k in last 7 days.. both have gone up, but one to about 30 and the other to 180! don't know what Germany does that the UK is shit at..

[abarro81]

Also, does anyone else feel like tier 2 is just "carry on as per since May" for them? Or are we weird in having only socialised with friends and family outdoors over the summer?

[tomtom]

One thing that’s not been picked up on in the national press is that additional funding for local TTI is only ‘allowed’ if you are tier 3.

TTI is a preventative measure and should be encouraged/enhanced in every tier not just the worst! Hence this measure being seen as a political measure to make those rebellious northern mayors tow the line.