[TobyD]

The gov have an impossible balancing act to perform and are bound to fail.

They have a difficult job to do,  but they can't ignore their advisers,  and claim to be guided by the science. Then try to say they are working locally when what they've done is told local authorities what to do.

. ...And also really invest to get it working properly. And provide proper support for this period to employees and businesses.

The loss of international visitors can't hurt the economy that much at this stage, surely, and if life could return to some normality in the medium term I'm sure that the UK public could prop everything up for quite sometime.

Surely it would be great for Boris to give everyone a low-risk Christmas and start 2021, and Brexit, in as normal way as possible...

The issue with t&t isn't money,  you can give your school chum from the jockey club as much cash as you like and shell she'll still do a shit job. 

[TobyD]

I predict an increase in scouse accents at the Beacon after Wednesday if the Welsh government don't lockdown Gwynedd...
That's the absurdity of different rules between England and Wales/Scotland, as if the virus gives a shit about which country it spreads in.

Nah, we'll all be at the Depot or Boulder UK...

I think you're joking here, but that would be extremely irresponsible wouldn't it? I am posing the question, not judging you.

[James Malloch]

We were at low numbers and TTI didn't work, why do you think it would now?

Also, we're near the worst in Europe so importing some negative cases might help dilute the UK! https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

We came to Germany at the start of Sept and both UK and Germany were on 11 per 100k in last 7 days.. both have gone up, but one to about 30 and the other to 180! don't know what Germany does that the UK is shit at..

I think if you invested in T&T more, made it more localised, put money aside to ensure those isolating didn't lose out through work etc it might have a better outcome than it currently seems to be having.

I don't know how much difference it makes, but on the whole german rules are run by the individual states. Perhaps these work better than rules being imposed by central government and there's better adherance? Better messaging too, perhaps?

We're out in Germany now and each state is quite different. For example we're out of quarantine in Saxony having tested negative last week. However (most) other states won't allow us to visit unless we re-enter quarantine (as it's <14 days since we arrived from the UK) and take another test in their state, or if we were tested in a different state, but it has to be within the 48 hours prior to arrival. Organising all this is also a massive pain (we weren't allowed to leave quarantine for 4 days after testing negative as we had so much back-and-forth getting the correct evidence to the state government).

If you visit Berlin (or other high-risk areas in Germany) you're also not allowed to stay in any hotels, airbnb etc for 14 days throughout the rest of the country. This was imposed last week as a reaction to the increasing cases. This rule is imposed when cases are >50 per 100,000 in an area whereas we didn't make changes until things were much worse. And people can still travel and stay in accommodation under our highest Tier - they just might not be able to go into a pub.

We're not in a high-risk area now so I'm unsure how different it is, but I think they have been stricter earlier then the UK in risk areas too (e.g. Berlin and bars closing/time changing).

In general, adherence is much better in terms of mask use compared to the UK (from what I've seen) and there's a lot more outside drinking/dining in the city squares than the UK, even when it's cold out.

[tomtom]

I wondered if the release of the SAGE notes (albeit after BJ's presser) was forced by SAGE - not wanting to be blamed/hung out if it all turns to shit again... A "we told you so" for the record as it were.

Certainly CWiddy seemed more rebellious than usual - and I'd bet if those notes were not released they would have been leaked....

[teestub]

Postcode checker for Tiers from the beeb (the govt are meant to be doing this at some point I think) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54373904

Are the areas based on council local authorities? I get a bit confused as ours has the same name for several things. Some of the areas stretch further than you might expect, Otley is in the ‘Leeds’ area for example.

[Sidehaas]

Postcode checker for Tiers from the beeb (the govt are meant to be doing this at some point I think) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54373904

Are the areas based on council local authorities? I get a bit confused as ours has the same name for several things. Some of the areas stretch further than you might expect, Otley is in the ‘Leeds’ area for example.

It's local authorities, except in High Peak whete it's electoral wards. This is the legislation for Tier 2 - see page 27 for the list.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1104/contents/made

[galpinos]

It's not really a slackening in GM though? I know you can now have people to visit in your garden. But all social mixing indoors is now banned, whereas previously this was only the case in Merseyside and the NE. In Manchester the mixing ban was in private dwellings - you could meet up with friends in a pub, restaurant (or leisure venue like a climbing wall) as long as there were fewer than six of you and the venue was "Covid secure". Now you can't.

Edit to add, I highlight this because it was the measure that felt like it made the most difference and was most onerous when it came in here a fortnight ago. When the weather is bad it makes any form of socialising impossible.

Mixing ban was in public as well as private dwellings for all of GM, however it was only a restriction and not made law, so many decided to ignore it. However, all restaurants near me for example were turning away any obvious mixed household groups as that was the guidance.

[Offwidth]

Some info in Nottingham showing the geographical and numerical effect of students in the data last week

http://documents.nottinghamcity.gov.uk/download/8715

Scary numbers from Nottingham University yesterday of 1500 +ves... they have their own testing system so don't rely on the less reliable government systems. Private reports from Nottingham Trent Uni (who are not being very open about numbers) as being "not far behind " look worrying in that context.

https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/local-news/university-nottingham-confirms-more-1500-4597860

This all indicates most of the Nottingham problem is with students but obviously it will spread fast.

[James Malloch]

We were at low numbers and TTI didn't work, why do you think it would now?

Also, we're near the worst in Europe so importing some negative cases might help dilute the UK! https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

We came to Germany at the start of Sept and both UK and Germany were on 11 per 100k in last 7 days.. both have gone up, but one to about 30 and the other to 180! don't know what Germany does that the UK is shit at..

I think if you invested in T&T more, made it more localised, put money aside to ensure those isolating didn't lose out through work etc it might have a better outcome than it currently seems to be having.

I don't know how much difference it makes, but on the whole german rules are run by the individual states. Perhaps these work better than rules being imposed by central government and there's better adherance? Better messaging too, perhaps?

We're out in Germany now and each state is quite different. For example we're out of quarantine in Saxony having tested negative last week. However (most) other states won't allow us to visit unless we re-enter quarantine (as it's <14 days since we arrived from the UK) and take another test in their state, or if we were tested in a different state, but it has to be within the 48 hours prior to arrival. Organising all this is also a massive pain (we weren't allowed to leave quarantine for 4 days after testing negative as we had so much back-and-forth getting the correct evidence to the state government).

If you visit Berlin (or other high-risk areas in Germany) you're also not allowed to stay in any hotels, airbnb etc for 14 days throughout the rest of the country. This was imposed last week as a reaction to the increasing cases. This rule is imposed when cases are >50 per 100,000 in an area whereas we didn't make changes until things were much worse. And people can still travel and stay in accommodation under our highest Tier - they just might not be able to go into a pub.

We're not in a high-risk area now so I'm unsure how different it is, but I think they have been stricter earlier then the UK in risk areas too (e.g. Berlin and bars closing/time changing).

In general, adherence is much better in terms of mask use compared to the UK (from what I've seen) and there's a lot more outside drinking/dining in the city squares than the UK, even when it's cold out.

The struck-out part may not be true having just spoken in broken German to the corona-line from a different state. Though the actual regulation suggests this is the case.

[Paul B]

The Lancashire Telegraph are reporting that discussions are continuing today with the very real possibility of being in Tier 3 by the end of the week. This is the problem, yesterday it was Tier 2, my MP is sharing the Tier 2 Government information, the Government website says Tier 2 but that's likely to change before the ink even dries.

I think they're dangling contract tracing as a carrot to Burnham.

[tomtom]

I think they're dangling contract tracing as a carrot to Burnham.

Yes - as I posted earlier. This is really bad IMHO... like holding back medicine or treatment..

Wankers... (and Burnham is playing a bit of a game too..)

[galpinos]

If you visit Berlin (or other high-risk areas in Germany) you're also not allowed to stay in any hotels, airbnb etc for 14 days throughout the rest of the country. This was imposed last week as a reaction to the increasing cases. This rule is imposed when cases are >50 per 100,000 in an area whereas we didn't make changes until things were much worse. And people can still travel and stay in accommodation under our highest Tier - they just might not be able to go into a pub.

Tier 3 you shouldn't leave you area:

• People should try to avoid travelling outside the ‘Very High’ area they are in, or entering a ‘Very High’ area, other than for things like work, education, accessing youth services, to meet caring responsibilities or if they are in transit.
• People should avoid staying overnight in another part of the UK if they are resident in a ‘Very High’ area, or avoid staying overnight in a ‘Very High’ area if they are resident elsewhere.

I doubt the law will reflect the guidance though.

[tomtom]

'should' = ignore for many people....

[Will Hunt]

Tier 2 isn't much (any?) different for Bradford than the restrictions that we've had in place now for something like two months (that's what it feels like anyway, time has become meaningless). Does anyone know where to look at case data plotted over time for the area to see whether cases have remained level or gone up/down with these restrictions? Mind you, I'm not even sure if I'd bother trying to make sense of it from case numbers alone. There are so many complicating factors regarding how people live/work/play/interact that make it difficult to fully make sense of things without having vast amounts of data.

[Paul B]

I'll save you the bother, they've gone up. We (Pendle) entered local lockdown at 50 per 100k, we're now around 300 per 100k.

https://twitter.com/LancsResilience/status/1313830825411084288/photo/1

Yes - as I posted earlier. This is really bad IMHO... like holding back medicine or treatment..

Sorry Tom, it was a lazy reply via mobile (to avoid the quoting system).

[Bonjoy]

Okay so this is me thinking aloud and playing devil’s advocate to an extent, but I’m voicing it because I’m interested to hear if other people are drifting in the same direction. A direction which is very worrying if extrapolated across the whole population as not everyone has the rarified levels of good judgment routinely displayed by the average UKB poster.
 As this thing drags ever on I get more and more of the mindset that I’m going to do what I deem low risk if the law doesn’t strictly prohibit it and possibly where it does if I personally risk assess it to be fine and I know I can get away with it.
This grows out of a feeling that if I’d mindlessly followed the guidance about what is safe I’d probably have caught COVID by now and it’s my own hypervigilance  that has kept me virus free so far not the blunt instrument of politically/economically driven ever changing rules. I know how to keep myself virus free as far as practically possible and quality of life considerations dictate I trust my own judgement. During lockdown there was a strong argument that you had to go along with nonsensical measures in the name of social cohesion and unity of purpose, but at this stage it feels like this has largely gone to rat shit and middle class dads sticking rigidly to the rules is not going to save the world after all.
In short I didn’t ‘eat out to help out’ but I might go on my remote and isolated holiday in Scotland if it’s not strictly illegal.

[Anti]

Very much feel the same way (even as far as planning a trip up the West coast of Scotland for November). During lockdown in Wales I was keen to follow the rules. I felt it no great hardship. Now we're at a point where I feel I'm one of the only people who seem to care. I don't want to go to the pub, restaurants or shopping. I want to go bouldering, outside, in the fresh air. I deem it very low risk and unless I am specifically prohibited from it I think this time I'd carry on in spite of a lockdown, regardless of whether the BMC decides it's morally wrong. Hell, I'm even contemplating traveling out of Gwynedd into Conwy just to hop on a project because an arbitrary line drawn down Ogwen Valley, about 5 miles from my house doesn't seem to make sense to me, when people from across the country can drive here, or when I could drive to the Peak, without issue...

[sdm]

As this thing drags ever on I get more and more of the mindset that I’m going to do what I deem low risk if the law doesn’t strictly prohibit it and possibly where it does if I personally risk assess it to be fine and I know I can get away with it.

I'm hearing this from a lot of friends and family.

I think most people have worked out how much personal covid risk they are willing to accept and have worked out what activities they are willing to spend their personal covid risk budget on.

Having worked that out, they then aren't too concerned with whether they are following the letter of the current guidance/restrictions.

This is from people who generally went above and beyond the original restrictions.

If future changes were to ban outdoor bouldering, while still allowing other higher risk activities, I'm not sure that I would avoid bouldering this time.

[chris j]

Does anyone know where to look at case data plotted over time for the area to see whether cases have remained level or gone up/down with these restrictions?

The BBC link i posted yesterday had some example graphs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54239538

To me, from the examples, only Leicester really went down and that was under the highest level lockdown

[petejh]

Okay so this is me thinking aloud and playing devil’s advocate to an extent, but I’m voicing it because I’m interested to hear if other people are drifting in the same direction. A direction which is very worrying if extrapolated across the whole population as not everyone has the rarified levels of good judgment routinely displayed by the average UKB poster.
 As this thing drags ever on I get more and more of the mindset that I’m going to do what I deem low risk if the law doesn’t strictly prohibit it and possibly where it does if I personally risk assess it to be fine and I know I can get away with it.
This grows out of a feeling that if I’d mindlessly followed the guidance about what is safe I’d probably have caught COVID by now and it’s my own hypervigilance  that has kept me virus free so far not the blunt instrument of politically/economically driven ever changing rules. I know how to keep myself virus free as far as practically possible and quality of life considerations dictate I trust my own judgement. During lockdown there was a strong argument that you had to go along with nonsensical measures in the name of social cohesion and unity of purpose, but at this stage it feels like this has largely gone to rat shit and middle class dads sticking rigidly to the rules is not going to save the world after all.
In short I didn’t ‘eat out to help out’ but I might go on my remote and isolated holiday in Scotland if it’s not strictly illegal.

That's the sentiment among a number of people I know here in N.Wales. We aren't supposed to leave Conwy county, and people aren't supposed to enter the county. But climbers are just ignoring the rules to come climbing on the Orme and elsewhere. I haven't ignored the local rules yet but am tempted to, both because there's close to zero risk of contributing in any meaningful way to transmission from me bouldering outside, and because the rules aren't even applied to those from high-risk areas of England with far higher case numbers who can travel to Wales - so what's the point of me obeying them when I live in a relatively much lower-risk area with far lower case numbers? I feel like the country-specific regulations and the politics that result are making a mockery of the rules and diminishing people's willingness to comply with them.

As far as risky leisure-time activities, the data is pretty clear about where the risk lies - indoors, crowded, long-term and poorly ventilated. Outdoor activities, either individually or in household groups, are relatively safe and should be actively encouraged as one means to reduce the widespread unhappiness and frustration resulting from this mess. If ever there was a good year to discover spending time in nature as an adjunct to mental health, it's 2020.
Indoor climbing I'd view in the same bracket as going for drink indoors at an averagely busy pub, so I think that if pubs in higher risk areas are going to close then unfortunately walls and gyms probably should too.

Going into stricter lockdowns through winter.. I'd find it completely unacceptable if outdoor leisure in the hills and mountains was actively discouraged, when it's proven to be such a low risk way to rejuvenate and so many other leisure activities were banned. If the BMC were to end up in the position again of advising against people spending time recreating in the outdoors due to lockdown rules - either local or national - then IMO their advice should be resolutely defied, their whole management voted out at the earliest opportunity, and the organisation ridiculed for being more concerned with obtaining government funding then promoting the healthy interests of its members.

[abarro81]

Another +1 here for broadly agreeing with Bonjoy

[Bradders]

Going into stricter lockdowns through winter.. I'd find it completely unacceptable if outdoor leisure in the hills and mountains was actively discouraged, when it's proven to be such a low risk way to rejuvenate and so many other leisure activities were banned. If the BMC were to end up in the position again of advising against people spending time recreating in the outdoors due to lockdown rules - either local or national - then IMO their advice should be resolutely defied, their whole management voted out at the earliest opportunity, and the organisation ridiculed for being more concerned with obtaining government funding then promoting the healthy interests of its members.

This, 100%.

[Bradders]

Indoor climbing I'd view in the same bracket as going for drink indoors at an averagely busy pub, so I think that if pubs in higher risk areas are going to close then unfortunately walls and gyms probably should too.

Don't really agree with this though - for one, there's no alcohol and the loosening of inhibitions it involves in a gym, climbing or otherwise. I really don't see any issue with going to the gym and staying 2m from everyone else, keeping good hand hygiene, everyone wearing masks, etc. Seems far less likely to transmit the virus than people getting pissed together.

Let's also not forget that not everyone can, or likes to, exercise outdoors - for many going indoors is really important for mental and physical health generally, and people getting fitter and healthier through exercise is only ever going to be helpful in a pandemic.

[petejh]

I'm more on the fence for gyms and walls then I am for pubs. But I think in highest risk areas they should try to stamp out spread as quickly as possible. In the hope that in other lower risk areas they can remain open to business.

I don't agree with the idea of a national circuit breaker right now as there are plenty of areas with lower case numbers where businesses could remain open - why shut?

[Fiend]

The local gym I use has (deep breath):

2 rooms worth of machines spread out to 3 rooms.
Limited numbers well below the government maximum.
Masks in all corridors and non-workout areas.
One way systems in and out of rooms.
A pre-booking system with 45 minute timeslots (can book up to 3 back to back),
15 minute cleaning break every 1:30, and 1 hour cleaning break early afternoon.
Hand sanitiser and disinfectant wipes everywhere and much (and successful) encouragement to use them.
No sharing of machines nor equipment.

All quite manageable and we can still go in and properly (yup it's weakbench at the mo, well my bench is fine but deadlifts are a shambles).