[dunnyg]

Announcements of announcements is getting really old. Whats the point? Is it so the govt can test the waters and see the reaction, some west minister wankery, or some other reason that I'm not aware of?

[mrjonathanr]

Not everybody likes Gary Lineker. but I do:
https://twitter.com/GaryLineker/status/1322579721721417731

He always presents a balanced view.

[shark]

The meanings of what is due to be announced at 5 will doubtless be subject to some interpretation- but from Peston it sounds like exercise outside is to be encouraged. Which is hopeful for climbing.

Not if you are booked to go to Kalymnos

“Outbound international travel will be banned, except for work”

 

[JamieG]

Doesn't "working" a route count? Just make sure you don't flash or on-sight anything.

[teestub]

Shark has at least 10 years experience as a semi professional redpointer!

[shark]

Shark has at least 10 years experience as a semi professional redpointer!

Pro athlete specialising in failed redpoints and traversing

I’ll get some business cards knocked up

[tomtom]

The meanings of what is due to be announced at 5 will doubtless be subject to some interpretation- but from Peston it sounds like exercise outside is to be encouraged. Which is hopeful for climbing.

Not if you are booked to go to Kalymnos

“Outbound international travel will be banned, except for work”

 

This really won’t be enforceable will it. Bonkers.

Like groups booking a ‘working lunch’ at ‘spoons with their mates.

[tomtom]

Well lockdown it is. Nothing in the presser that wasn’t released before hand except...

The most revealing question was the last one from the Sun on Sundays correspondent. Which was basically will it end in a month? And if not - what are the criteria for it ending. The answer was that R has to be pretty convincingly below 1. Enough to ‘halve cases per week’ which I believe is an R of 0.5.

Is this really achievable with schools and many work places still open? Basically we’re just closing pubs, restaurants, Gyms and ‘non essential’ shops etc... and according to the earlier Sage forecasts of R impact - these didnt make that much difference (they could be wrong of course).

Buy in will be far lower than in March IMHO. Back then it seemed pretty much everyone followed the rules - but this time? I’m sure there will be plenty of people popping around (quietly) for a drink to someone else’s house etc...

[teestub]

I can’t imagine how pissed off Muscle Coach is right now 😂

Assume we will get some more guidance on what constitutes reasonable travel for exercise. At least we can have an out of household spotter!

[tomtom]

Sat in a darkened room cutting the loops off face masks....

[AJM]

I can’t imagine how pissed off Muscle Coach is right now 😂

Assume we will get some more guidance on what constitutes reasonable travel for exercise. At least we can have an out of household spotter!

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from-5-november#travel

On the face of it, whilst exercise is a permitted reason to leave the house non-essential travel is not advised and exercise is not listed as a potential essential reason.

This is assuming "must" and "should" mean "law" and "guidance" respectively

[teestub]

Thanks I didn’t realise they’d updated the website already.

So yeah a ‘should’ for travel, with a lot of places in the list where you can go For recreation that I assume they don’t expect people to cycle to!

[tomtom]

From the govt website

You can exercise or visit outdoor public places with the people you live with, your support bubble, or 1 person from another household.

Outdoor public places include:

parks, beaches, countryside,


Subtle but important wording that exercise and visit outdoor public spaces are in the same criteria - with examples of beaches and countryside. So my interpretation of that is that you can go out for your well-being / mental health as well as for exercise. And it specifically mentions the countryside.

I believe this wording is different from the last advice...

[moose]

I think rather than try to interpret hastily drafted guidance / regulations, my approach will be to keep abiding as I have for the last few months (I work at home, live alone, have had no time at friends' houses / pubs / restaurants since Feb, seen family once since Christmas) - and continue to drive to crags until directly ordered otherwise, and / or the quantity of fines gets too onerous.

[tomtom]

Yes indeed Moose. The only difference this will make to our family life over what we’ve been doing so far is (a) my wife is annoyed she won’t be getting her haircut and (b) our nipper won’t be able to meet a pal or two on the park. Neither are a great hardship to miss..

[Nigel]

I can’t imagine how pissed off Muscle Coach is right now 😂

The mind boggles. Good he's gone as he wasn't adding anything despite being given enough chances to make a reasoned case. Although I have to say the its no surprise that people hold certain such views when the BBC give plenty of credible coverage to the "great Barrington / harold shipman" declaration. I have yet to see them pressed on this, but they should be.

On the national lockdown, glad my prediction was wrong and they are doing something, albeit very late. I suppose the reason I thought they wouldn't do it was that bj said a week ago a national lockdown would be "an absurdity"; has for weeks accused starmer of playing politics by advocating just such a lockdown; and raab said just yesterday that a national lockdown was "an enigma" and the weight of scientific advice was regional - I thought they might believe in it themselves. Amazing how they still manage to fool you, even when you don't believe a word they say anyway! They are even more practised liars than even I thought. Quite a skill. Though perhaps not the best one for navigating the nation through this + Brexit.

Seeing as its national there will be a vote - it'll be interesting to see how many Tories vote against.

And Burnham must be tearing his hair out at what the fucking point of arguing for a week about 80% furlough for Manchester was all about...

[Sidehaas]

Yes indeed Moose. The only difference this will make to our family life over what we’ve been doing so far is (a) my wife is annoyed she won’t be getting her haircut and (b) our nipper won’t be able to meet a pal or two on the park. Neither are a great hardship to miss..

I noticed that the guidance says play areas can stay open. It's not easy keeping 3yos apart!

[moose]

Yes indeed Moose. The only difference this will make to our family life over what we’ve been doing so far is (a) my wife is annoyed she won’t be getting her haircut and (b) our nipper won’t be able to meet a pal or two on the park. Neither are a great hardship to miss..

I admit that my view on trying to balance the personal vs private "good" in light of the guidance is very much informed by the day job.  A boiler-plate paragraph much used in forensic reports is something along the lines of "the following opinion is based on my scientific expertise and experience; however, this is in part a matter of legal interpretation, and if you wish to pursue the matter, I recommend seeking qualified legal opinion" (!).

[Nigel]

And if not - what are the criteria for it ending. The answer was that R has to be pretty convincingly below 1. Enough to ‘halve cases per week’ which I believe is an R of 0.5.

Is this really achievable with schools and many work places still open? Basically we’re just closing pubs, restaurants, Gyms and ‘non essential’ shops etc... and according to the earlier Sage forecasts of R impact - these didnt make that much difference (they could be wrong of course).

Good point - is it possible to achieve the desired result with schools and unis open? Hopefully yes, but as you say possibly not. At least this next month will give them a chance to finally figure this out instead of crossing their fingers!

Might be a moot point anyway as what with the imminent billion 1 second tests a day, and choice of vaccine flavours incoming, apparently it will all be over by spring. Nothing to do with something as simple as the weather, obviously. Sure I remember it all being over by xmas though??? Note he still didn't take the golden opportunity to talk straight about xmas, except to say we would revert to the tier system after lockdown. For those familiar with tier 2 or 3 the implications are obvious, but were glossed over. Also people in any tier might find they have a family bigger than the rule of 6.

[chris j]

Yes indeed Moose. The only difference this will make to our family life over what we’ve been doing so far is (a) my wife is annoyed she won’t be getting her haircut and (b) our nipper won’t be able to meet a pal or two on the park. Neither are a great hardship to miss..

Similar to us with the addition of no swimming lessons for the kids and no Sunday dinner with my parents.

One thing that does puzzle & infuriate is that the reports all appear to say the south west is going to run out of hospital capacity first in the next few weeks. Given the generally lower levels of virus down here, how deprived must the region be for NHS facilities for this to be true?!

[mrjonathanr]

I imagine regional centres serve a large spread out population per available bed?

Sorry to hear you are so isolated Moose.

[ali k]

On the national lockdown, glad my prediction was wrong and they are doing something, albeit very late. I suppose the reason I thought they wouldn't do it was that bj said a week ago a national lockdown would be "an absurdity"

The question is whether this would be happening if it wasn’t for the leaked reports on Friday. It’s clear the press conference last night and this lockdown has been a panic move in response to the leak, so how long would the pretence of the regional approach being the right one have been kept up in the absence of the leak and its dire warnings?

[chris j]

I imagine regional centres serve a large spread out population per available bed?

Sorry to hear you are so isolated Moose.

I found an article from March summarizing critical care bed availability and while the south west is middle of the range for general beds per head of population, the region is bottom of the range by quite a long way for number of critical care beds (with possibly half being in Bristol looking at the small map). Coupled with the highest mortality index (ie elderly) population, there was much less free capacity than other regions even before the virus came into the picture.

It's lucky the region hasn't been hit like London and the North really...

https://www.hsj.co.uk/quality-and-performance/revealed-huge-regional-variation-in-nhs-ability-to-meet-coronavirus-demand/7027153.article

[Nigel]

What happened is that there was a rush by government to secure companies with strong contacts in China that could make sure that Chinese-made PPE would come to Britain in an environment described by one company director involved as "like the Wild West". All of this is well documented.

It may well be right to say that we were pushed for time and in a PPE crisis so that leveraging mates with the ability to open doors in China was justified, but lets at least recognise that was what happened to anywhere between £1bn and £5.5bn of taxpayer's money, rather than upping orders with existing NHS suppliers in the UK. Legal action is ongoing so the answers will come out in the fullness of time. I would still like to think that having a proper stockpile and using trusted domestic producers would have been preferable!

New one on PPE contracts - https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/03/45m-deal-for-nhs-masks-collapses-amid-claims

DHSC paid Purple Surgical £45m upfront for 5 million 3M aura 9332+ FFP3 masks for the NHS for delivery in June. Purple Surgical then signed a contract for £21 million for the 5 million masks with Win Billion Investment Group i.e. not a medical supplier instead a Hong Kong investment holdings firm (https://www.bloomberg.com/profile/company/1334805D:HK), but based in British Virgin Islands, tax rate 0%. Win Billions Investment Group have taken £20 million (as I read it) and haven't yet come through with the 3M masks. Which were fakes anyway according to 3M. Purple Surgical accuse Win Billions of fraud.

Regardless of the potential fraud, there's so much else there in that process that is sub-par. Offshoring huge amounts of potential UK manufacturing work, and sending our money to tax havens never to be seen again. Although PPE supply looks nice work if you can get it - Purple Surgical stood to make £24 million clear profit on the back of sending a few emails. They have successfully supplied £250 million worth until now, so I won't be weeping for them yet as I expect they have a modest financial buffer if that is their margin!

Wishing I had PPE contacts in China as I would happily have arranged this for a bargain basement £1 million mark up, saving each of the 32.3m UK taxpayers 71p, so win-win. Probably why they are a popular start up amongst those in the know - https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/seven-week-old-firm-with-links-to-tory-peer-lands-122-million-ppe-contract/08/10/   I would really hope that we have turned this around by now in time for the second wave and made it a UK manufacturing success stoy, but I am yet to hear it...

[danm]

DMM are making visors, does that count?

https://dmmprofessional.com/Products/Visors