[sxrxg]

I have just noticed that the North West Face in Warrington is being told to close as part of tier 3+ measures coming in from Monday - https://www.warringtonguardian.co.uk/news/18835572.indoor-entertainment-venues-close-warrington/. As with all things local lockdown it seems odd that people can still visit the depot or climbing hangar that are 25 minutes in either direction however they cannot visit their local wall when all are meant to be in tier 3 lockdown. I really don't see how local restrictions are going to work when the rules are so different between areas that are so close together.

[Paul B]

I take it you've not seen a copy of the front covers of the weekend papers?

National lockdown, briefing on Monday etc.

[Stabbsy]

I take it you've not seen a copy of the front covers of the weekend papers?

National lockdown, briefing on Monday etc.

Obviously getting bad enough in London that they’ve started to give a shit.

[abarro81]

I'm surprised the French have gone hardcore (or hardcore retard) with their new lockdown (1hr exercise within 1km of your house).. be interesting to see if people ignore it. If they do that again here I would...

That’s what they had before...

Yeah, my point was just that I'm surprised they've gone back to that, given we seem to know that going out walking or running or climbing is low risk. If the UK goes "full lockdown" again I have no intention of following any restrictions on exercise and will go climbing in the peak, eastern lime etc (probably somewhere not super visible)

[tomtom]

Sadly that was my first thought too....

The moment there are record increases in the capital.... (as reported)

Brain dump follows: He’ll try and sell it as 4 weeks of lockdown to try and relax it at Christmas - but I can’t see it ending by then.

Let’s see what the detail is... I’ll wager it’s soft lockdown.

1. Primary schools - certain to carry on
2. Secondary - probably but maybe not.
3. Pubs/restaraunts... closed but maybe allow outdoor dining?
4. Gyms? (50/50 chance I recon)
5. Shops? Everything to remain open... except maybe nail bars, tanning salons, Tier3 closed stuff etc..
6. Travel. No unnecessary travel ‘advised’.
7. Universities - carry on with some face to face as they were

Those are my guesstimates.. in effect Tier3+ nationally. Hospitality and leisure take a hit - not much else will change.

You never know - maybe he’ll have the kahunas to do it properly.

What is interesting - and clear from across Europe - is how much CV19 seems to  spread with the colder weather and more people being inside for longer. Suspect this has been underestimated up to now. The Sage(ly) ones seem surprised it’s grown so soon and so rapidly... (ie to their worst case scenario end)

@Barrows (just saw your post while typing). Maybe for clarity of message?

[Andy W]

I'm surprised the French have gone hardcore (or hardcore retard) with their new lockdown (1hr exercise within 1km of your house).. be interesting to see if people ignore it. If they do that again here I would...

That’s what they had before...

Yeah, my point was just that I'm surprised they've gone back to that, given we seem to know that going out walking or running or climbing is low risk. If the UK goes "full lockdown" again I have no intention of following any restrictions on exercise and will go climbing in the peak, eastern lime etc (probably somewhere not super visible)

I live in France and I'm surprised as well. It's a lockdown that favours work/business and curtails pretty much anything that might be considered necessary to the human soul, ie culture and climbing 

On Monday we need a form/attestation to take one daughter to school and another to creche, a form to go to the shops and bizarrely we need more forms to go and pick our girls up from school/creche!

[teestub]

Brain dump follows: He’ll try and sell it as 4 weeks of lockdown to try and relax it at Christmas - but I can’t see it ending by then.

Seen this in various forms from local leaders, the old ‘behave now and you can have a biscuit later’ tactic!

Pretty gutted that it appears in N Yorks we will be going straight from Tier 1 to Lockdown!

[JamieG]

I take it you've not seen a copy of the front covers of the weekend papers?

National lockdown, briefing on Monday etc.

Obviously getting bad enough in London that they’ve started to give a shit.

That is basically what the guardian are reporting. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/30/save-christmas-with-covid-lockdown-in-england-experts-say

"The React study from Imperial College London this week flagged that the R number – measuring how many people are infected by each person transmitting the virus – was at its highest in the south of the country, which meant it was likely to follow the pattern in the north, which currently has the highest numbers of cases and where tier 3 restrictions are widely imposed."

[Davo]

[/quote]

Yeah, my point was just that I'm surprised they've gone back to that, given we seem to know that going out walking or running or climbing is low risk. If the UK goes "full lockdown" again I have no intention of following any restrictions on exercise and will go climbing in the peak, eastern lime etc (probably somewhere not super visible)
[/quote]

Completely agree with this. I see no good reason to restrict going out and climbing or exercising in the hills etc. I for one will be carrying on sport climbing or bouldering in quiet locations.

[Dac]

Nice to see that the government is once again going about things in the manner likely to cause the most disruption and panic.

Leak the possibility of a new lockdown to the press on a Friday night, with no official briefing of what this will actually entail to follow untill Monday.

Cue a weekend of the nation panic buying bog-roll, visiting relatives while they still can, and enjoying a big blowout Halloween piss-up.

[chris j]

Pretty gutted that it appears in N Yorks we will be going straight from Tier 1 to Lockdown!

Yes, similar for where I am in Devon. Other than Exeter uni which is dying down (& Torbay?) things are generally simmering along slowly down here. Mind you, you have to feel for mid-Wales as well, when the hot spots are in the south and north east...

Interesting one I read yesterday the the predominant strain being found across Europe now originated among Spanish field workers earlier in the summer. The inference being we can thank everyone who went on holiday to Spain and then went to the pub with their mates after returning rather than following the travel isolation...

Then speaking of compliance, i think Chris Whitty said that they aren't seeing any decrease in people's activity in Tier 3 areas. Which suggests either the restrictions are poorly designed or compliance is minimal (or both).

[Oldmanmatt]

Pretty gutted that it appears in N Yorks we will be going straight from Tier 1 to Lockdown!

Yes, similar for where I am in Devon. Other than Exeter uni which is dying down (& Torbay?) things are generally simmering along slowly down here. Mind you, you have to feel for mid-Wales as well, when the hot spots are in the south and north east...

Interesting one I read yesterday the the predominant strain being found across Europe now originated among Spanish field workers earlier in the summer. The inference being we can thank everyone who went on holiday to Spain and then went to the pub with their mates after returning rather than following the travel isolation...

Then speaking of compliance, i think Chris Whitty said that they aren't seeing any decrease in people's activity in Tier 3 areas. Which suggests either the restrictions are poorly designed or compliance is minimal (or both).

Devon is doing ok as a whole:



Torbay is actually calming down after a surge around two weeks ago:




It was dark blue two weeks ago, with 100+ new cases/wk. We’ve had less than 10 deaths in Torbay hospital since August, but I’m told there are several critical.

[tomtom]

According to the rolling news sites the leak was a genuine leak rather than a let’s signpost bad news early leak like they normally do.

#10 is fuming etc... strong element of the boy who cried wolf here.

[ali k]

National lockdown, briefing on Monday etc.

It’ll be interesting to see how this is announced and what it’s described as (National Tier 4, circuit break, blah blah) given that up until yesterday the govt have been defending the local approach as the right strategy and one that was working effectively. I imagine 99% of the conversation among Johnson’s circle this weekend will be the politics of how to sell it above all other considerations.

[chris j]

Devon is doing ok as a whole:


Torbay is actually calming down after a surge around two weeks ago:



It was dark blue two weeks ago, with 100+ new cases/wk. We’ve had less than 10 deaths in Torbay hospital since August, but I’m told there are several critical.

Devonlive, that well known source of accurate local reporting suggests 13 have died in hospital in the last 2 weeks, with another 4 in care homes in the same period and that you're heading for Tier 3...

TBH, (idealistically & unrealistically i know) rather than more severe restrictions that everyone will try to wriggle around (other than closing pubs full stop no ifs, buts or exceptions) they could do with a sustained high profile campaign to tell everyone to be sensible & take some personal responsibility. Get some footballers and the current flavour of the month reality tv celebrities onboard and get with the youth...

[ali k]

According to the rolling news sites the leak was a genuine leak

#10 is fuming etc...

Probably SAGE getting worried they’re being ignored and getting on the front foot to avoid being set up again like they were during the first wave.

[tomtom]

National lockdown, briefing on Monday etc.

It’ll be interesting to see how this is announced and what it’s described as (National Tier 4, circuit break, blah blah) given that up until yesterday the govt have been defending the local approach as the right strategy and one that was working effectively. I imagine 99% of the conversation among Johnson’s circle this weekend will be the politics of how to sell it above all other considerations.

Indeed. Such is the pettiness of government and party politics, I suspect there will be much gnashing of teeth over what to call it. After all, Labour have championed the circuit break, the Welsh Govt have the fire break, and Scotland have tier 4 I believe... What will they use?

Anyway - expect we’ll hear some of this next week “Stay home to save Christmas”

[tomtom]

According to the rolling news sites the leak was a genuine leak

#10 is fuming etc...

Probably SAGE getting worried they’re being ignored and getting on the front foot to avoid being set up again like they were during the first wave.

Yes - though on the news programs I saw yesterday much was being made of C-Widdys “if we do nothing it will be this bad in mid October” predictions from the 21st Sept news conference - that were unerringly correct....

There does seem to be more of a concerted SAGE effort to gently spread the word. Different members doing media briefings on different days - to the big news spreading programs (today program, breakfast etc..). Fair play to them I say - If I was on that panel I’d be worried about being hung out to dry later on...

[Sidehaas]

Pretty gutted that it appears in N Yorks we will be going straight from Tier 1 to Lockdown!

Yes, similar for where I am in Devon. Other than Exeter uni which is dying down (& Torbay?) things are generally simmering along slowly down here. Mind you, you have to feel for mid-Wales as well, when the hot spots are in the south and north east...

Interesting one I read yesterday the the predominant strain being found across Europe now originated among Spanish field workers earlier in the summer. The inference being we can thank everyone who went on holiday to Spain and then went to the pub with their mates after returning rather than following the travel isolation...

Then speaking of compliance, i think Chris Whitty said that they aren't seeing any decrease in people's activity in Tier 3 areas. Which suggests either the restrictions are poorly designed or compliance is minimal (or both).

For what it's worth the importance of that Spanish strain is maybe over emphasised. This Bloomberg link is an interview with the author, she's fairly clear that it isn't responsible for driving the current waves around Europe.

Edit: sorry here is the link:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-10-29/scientists-warn-of-a-new-covid-19-variant-in-europe-video

Taking Devon as an example, I'm afraid 80 per 100k (which excludes Exeter and Plymouth) is not simmering along slowly, it's just earlier on the upward trend. Most places in the north west passed through that level in the first half of September is 6 weeks ago. You might be expected to see rates increase more slowly out on the moors and localities will have fluctuations (as has happened everywhere) but they will definitely continue to go up generally unless something significant changes.

[Sidehaas]

I wonder if they might do a national tier 2 / 3 coupled with a Tier 4 / fuller lockdown for areas already at Tier 2/3. They could still claim that was different to what labour have proposed and it might work.
I'd be surprised if they completely ditched the regional approach given how much they have been wedded to it to now.

[tomtom]

I wonder if they might do a national tier 2 / 3 coupled with a Tier 4 / fuller lockdown for areas already at Tier 2/3. They could still claim that was different to what labour have proposed and it might work.
I'd be surprised if they completely ditched the regional approach given how much they have been wedded to it to now.

I think they may have realised they’ve left it too late for that - from Prof Edmunds on today program (talking about winter CV19 deaths)

“The issue is, is that going to be low tens of thousands if we take radical action now or is that going to be the high tens of thousands if we don’t?”

[Oldmanmatt]

Pretty gutted that it appears in N Yorks we will be going straight from Tier 1 to Lockdown!

Yes, similar for where I am in Devon. Other than Exeter uni which is dying down (& Torbay?) things are generally simmering along slowly down here. Mind you, you have to feel for mid-Wales as well, when the hot spots are in the south and north east...

Interesting one I read yesterday the the predominant strain being found across Europe now originated among Spanish field workers earlier in the summer. The inference being we can thank everyone who went on holiday to Spain and then went to the pub with their mates after returning rather than following the travel isolation...

Then speaking of compliance, i think Chris Whitty said that they aren't seeing any decrease in people's activity in Tier 3 areas. Which suggests either the restrictions are poorly designed or compliance is minimal (or both).

For what it's worth the importance of that Spanish strain is maybe over emphasised. This Bloomberg link is an interview with the author, she's fairly clear that it isn't responsible for driving the current waves around Europe.

Taking Devon as an example, I'm afraid 80 per 100k (which excludes Exeter and Plymouth) is not simmering along slowly, it's just earlier on the upward trend. Most places in the north west passed through that level in the first half of September is 6 weeks ago. You might be expected to see rates increase more slowly out on the moors and localities will have fluctuations (as has happened everywhere) but they will definitely continue to go up generally unless something significant changes.

What I’m hoping is...

Public perception and increased messaging has already had an effect. What we see in the maps, reflects behaviour from 1-2 weeks prior.

Well, it’s definitely gone down. The clusters in Torbay in the week prior to the 25th, are smaller than those of two weeks ago. My own little patch of St Marychurch was the epicentre two weeks ago, only just scraping below a “purple”. Exeter seems to have crested.

I think things have changed in terms of public attitudes. For instance, I have two kids that play JNR Premier league with the TA club. They were seriously dismissive of risk, when they restarted back in August. Then they had a scare when an assistant coach got a positive and became ill. Then, I think, it dawned on them that they were actually exposing people, friends and team families etc. (I mentioned more detail on that on one of the threads). So, now there’s been no training or matches for almost three weeks. It’s not that they just said “all stop until further notice”, it’s a rolling process of cancellation, any players or staff reporting the slightest hint of a symptom and everything is cancelled.

[largeruk]

@OMM

Could you please link to the source of the maps/data you used. Cheers.

[Oldmanmatt]

@OMM

Could you please link to the source of the maps/data you used. Cheers.

https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

[tomtom]

The meanings of what is due to be announced at 5 will doubtless be subject to some interpretation- but from Peston it sounds like exercise outside is to be encouraged. Which is hopeful for climbing.

https://mobile.twitter.com/peston/status/1322562692771696640?ref_url=file%3a%2f%2f%2fprivate%2fvar%2fcontainers%2fbundle%2fapplication%2f138b05e9-a994-4c81-98c8-62e1754e7b58%2fgla.app%2farticletemplates%2f

We’ll see in half an hour or so etc..