[tomtom]

Yup. I suspect it’s because within many people’s bubble of home isolation there are no signs of things getting worse - so people relax.

In my bubble (our street family and friends) - I know no-one now in isolation -(a few certainly had it for the first 2-3 weeks) which is a good thing. But if this is happening to many people then folk will relax.

Yesterday I could hear visitors voices in gardens of the roads adjacent to ours (inc children - where none live) suggesting something discrete fam bbq’s etx...

[abarro81]

I am in disbelief that some people are clearly not petrified now after we’ve seen the damage this virus can do.

I'm scared for old people and those with pre-existing conditions, but far from petrified. Even if you talk about wiping out vast swathes of the older demographic, that's something I find sad rather than petrifying. Maybe that's just semantics though? Sure I'd feel differently if I or other young close relatives had major pre-existing conditions, although then I'd be afraid irrespective of how well people are behaving. (Yes, I'm aware you might die if young and no conditions, but the prob is pretty low, and it's not like I'm petrified of dying from other non-zero chance causes).
More for the other thread, but I also don't think that families having picnics or going out for walks is a major transmission risk, though mixing of households and not distancing does seem like a significant transmission risk, so seems dumb to me.

Boris Johnson is not back at work yet but, as we have reported already (see 7.26am), it is already clear that he is starting to exert a firm grip on the government’s handling of coronavirus. On Saturday the Daily Telegraph ran quoting an unnamed cabinet minister saying pressure for the lockdown was coming from the public, not from ministers. It said:

A third cabinet source said: “There’s no exit plan at the moment because they don’t want to do anything without the boss’s say so. “Not a huge amount is going on in these cabinet meetings.”

The source added: “They are waiting for the public to change their minds.

“We didn’t want to go down this route in the first place – public and media pressure pushed the lockdown, we went with the science.

“The lockdown will only start coming loose when the public wants it to – not ministers.”

Bold is mine..
So if you want to do x just do it and shout loudly and the gov will let you do it.

[Paul B]

If anyone thought the NPCC guidance helped clarify matters, the Goverment are here to make sure that clarity doesn't last long:

"Breaking the rules is breaking the law" 

https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1251552130546241537?s=20

[Nigel]

Boris Johnson is not back at work yet but, as we have reported already (see 7.26am), it is already clear that he is starting to exert a firm grip on the government’s handling of coronavirus. On Saturday the Daily Telegraph ran quoting an unnamed cabinet minister saying pressure for the lockdown was coming from the public, not from ministers. It said:

A third cabinet source said: “There’s no exit plan at the moment because they don’t want to do anything without the boss’s say so. “Not a huge amount is going on in these cabinet meetings.”

The source added: “They are waiting for the public to change their minds.

“We didn’t want to go down this route in the first place – public and media pressure pushed the lockdown, we went with the science.

“The lockdown will only start coming loose when the public wants it to – not ministers.”

Bold is mine..
So if you want to do x just do it and shout loudly and the gov will let you do it.

Apologies for the tangent abarro81, but the first bold is mine: "...it is already clear that he is starting to exert a firm grip on the government’s handling of coronavirus". I hope the cheque from Tory HQ is in the post to The Guardian for that little nugget of editorial! Or maybe I have misread and its just a pretty blatant satire on the content of the next paragraph (summed up by your bold)?

[fiveknuckle21]

I am in disbelief that some people are clearly not petrified now after we’ve seen the damage this virus can do.

I'm scared for old people and those with pre-existing conditions, but far from petrified. Even if you talk about wiping out vast swathes of the older demographic, that's something I find sad rather than petrifying. Maybe that's just semantics though? Sure I'd feel differently if I or other young close relatives had major pre-existing conditions, although then I'd be afraid irrespective of how well people are behaving. (Yes, I'm aware you might die if young and no conditions, but the prob is pretty low, and it's not like I'm petrified of dying from other non-zero chance causes).
More for the other thread, but I also don't think that families having picnics or going out for walks is a major transmission risk, though mixing of households and not distancing does seem like a significant transmission risk, so seems dumb to me.

Boris Johnson is not back at work yet but, as we have reported already (see 7.26am), it is already clear that he is starting to exert a firm grip on the government’s handling of coronavirus. On Saturday the Daily Telegraph ran quoting an unnamed cabinet minister saying pressure for the lockdown was coming from the public, not from ministers. It said:

A third cabinet source said: “There’s no exit plan at the moment because they don’t want to do anything without the boss’s say so. “Not a huge amount is going on in these cabinet meetings.”

The source added: “They are waiting for the public to change their minds.

“We didn’t want to go down this route in the first place – public and media pressure pushed the lockdown, we went with the science.

“The lockdown will only start coming loose when the public wants it to – not ministers.”

Bold is mine..
So if you want to do x just do it and shout loudly and the gov will let you do it.

Agreed and agreed. Thought I sent this one into the other thread. Think I might’ve been my own victim of a touch of hyperbole there too.

[TobyD]

I find it quite unsettling hearing that people’s behaviour is slipping. A month ago it could’ve been passed off as ignorance or denial amongst other things but we’ve seen the deaths climb. Didn’t we have the highest number of new cases of any country, globally, yesterday? It’s all so dehumanising when there is death on this scale. I am in disbelief that some people are clearly not petrified now after we’ve seen the damage this virus can do.

I know, and Nigel I'm sure that robust criticism of the government won't make you go out in the hills, but some people are waiting for any excuse, and I agree with the above post that I find it pretty worrying how some people seem to think that they've been inside a couple of weeks and now they're going out as they're bored of whatever. These people just don't seem to understand that it's a pooled risk, not individual, the actions of one picnicker or whatever is not of great importance, but if 50%of the population do that, we're fucked. That's why it shouldn't be happening.

[abarro81]

These people just don't seem to understand that it's a pooled risk, not individual, the actions of one picnicker or whatever is not of great importance, but if 50%of the population do that, we're fucked. That's why it shouldn't be happening.

Only if picnicking is notably more dangerous for transmission than road biking, MTBing, walking and running that we're all already doing.

[mrjonathanr]

The relative dangers of ham sandwich consumption vs tabatas aren't really the issue here though, are they?

With exercise, people will not congregate because they are moving. There is clarity of message in allowing exercise sessions. With outdoor relaxation, categories of allowable activities are not so clear. It's a lot harder to police and a lot easier to ignore the principle of social distancing.

[abarro81]

There is clarity of message in allowing exercise sessions.

  That's a joke right? Did you miss the 40+ pages on the other thread and hundreds of posts on UKC, surfing websites etc, plus the news articles about the police moving people on for yoga?

It's a lot harder to police and a lot easier to ignore the principle of social distancing.

I'm not sure what makes it harder to police stationary gatherings than moving gatherings? I also find it a lot easier to avoid stationary people in the park when our running than walkers, runners and bikers, all of whom are moving in various different directions and liable to adjust course at short notice.

If you want to make it easy to police, that's why you say no travel by car, or no leaving your house.

[stone]

I think the picnic clamp down is just about looking like they mean business. It is a bit like how railings were cut down at the start of  WWII although the metal wasn't actually used.

Thank goodness they are now re-opening city parks though that had been closed.

I'd much rather they focussed more on the meaningful action (eg shielding the vulnerable adequately with food deliveries, providing PPE, testing etc) and less on the pantomime.

In Korea they haven't had any health care workers die of COVID19. The two COVID ward doctors I know are both currently off sick with COVID19. I know one of them took one look at the provided PPE and set up an annex at home to ensure he didn't spread it to his family. It was obvious he would catch it.

[abarro81]

I'd much rather they focussed more on the meaningful action (eg shielding the vulnerable adequately with food deliveries, providing PPE, testing etc) and less on the pantomime.

I also think you'd get better adherence to distancing if the relentlessness of the message were on distancing rather than following the (somewhat arbitrary) rules. I think there can be a tendency for people to think "I'm doing something within the rules so it's pretty much ok", rather than "the rules are that I stay 2m away from other people no matter what I'm doing, and that's key". I appreciate that this is there in the messaging, but it gets lost in the message of "Stay at home. Except for when you're not staying at home." Social distancing in the supermarket certainly seems to be slightly cursory vs how it could be - queues are well marked out to ensure it, but browsing isn't, there are no 1-way systems in the ones I go to etc.

[TobyD]

I'd much rather they focussed more on the meaningful action (eg shielding the vulnerable adequately with food deliveries, providing PPE, testing etc) and less on the pantomime.

I also think you'd get better adherence to distancing if the relentlessness of the message were on distancing rather than following the (somewhat arbitrary) rules. I think there can be a tendency for people to think "I'm doing something within the rules so it's pretty much ok", rather than "the rules are that I stay 2m away from other people no matter what I'm doing, and that's key". I appreciate that this is there in the messaging, but it gets lost in the message of "Stay at home. Except for when you're not staying at home." Social distancing in the supermarket certainly seems to be slightly cursory vs how it could be - queues are well marked out to ensure it, but browsing isn't, there are no 1-way systems in the ones I go to etc.

I agree. Simple relentless messaging works, and is one thing the government has done effectively in the past: election.

Many shops do have one way browsing which is largely followed although I did try to politely remind someone of this a week or so ago, and received a mouthful of mild abuse for it. Generally people play ball though.

Re testing, my trust says explicitly in the testing plans "It must be noted that the focus isn't actually on staff testing". Hmmm.

[Nigel]

Not suppressed just perhaps reported after the worst of the event. I agree that most reasonably intelligent younger people wouldn't change their behaviour based on this, but people of for example my parents generation might well. (65+) As I said earlier quite a few of the people I've seen taking the piss are more this demographic.

I agree that ppe and testing has been awfully organised.

Coming back to this one, I happened to hear the world at one on radio 4 earlier. I suspect you don't need to worry basically! At least not with the BBC, which a good number of your "problem demographic" of 65+yr olds will get all their news from. Most of the talking heads plus the presenter were, despite mentioning some of the "issues", doing all they could to assure us the ship of state was being steered correctly. The absolute nadir was a frankly astonishing government press release in the middle of the programme, delivered by Laura Kuenessberg. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000hdjz starts at 23:45mins if you want to be reassured that although "we were a couple of weeks behind on PPE and testing" (!!!) everything is basically hunky-dory.

[Nigel]

Not normally a fan of her articles but this is a tidy summary of the PM's performance from Polly Toynbee https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/20/boris-johnson-sunday-times-prime-minister-coronavirus

It seems clear that he was missing in action for most of the start of this year. I have a vague recollection that he did appear briefly for a week or two at one point but now he's gone again. Understandable given he personally went all in on the herd immunity strategy, but are we expecting him back? As the rest of the cabinet seem to be either making a complete pig's ear of things or have gone awol themselves (Liz Truss? Minister for International Trade + Women and Equalities; should she not have something to say publicly about sourcing PPE / domestic abuse?). Parliament sits again tomorrow after their 3 weeks off so hopefully we will get some scrutiny as a lot of the media seem to be gazing at their navels.

Does anyone know if we will be testing and tracing soon? If not what is the strategy from here on in? Will we get to 100K tests by end of month (19K yesterday), and more importantly is it enough? If not how many do we need and when will get to that? When will care home deaths be included in the figures? What are the 750,000 NHS volunteers doing, if anything? Why can't we make medical gowns in the UK? Why do we have no covid-19 procedures at our borders? Why aren't banks lending to companies? The list goes on...

[ali k]

When will care home deaths be included in the figures?

Interesting to see the press briefing graph comparing with other countries in the last three or four days has started to include deaths in 'hospitals only' separately from 'all settings'. And the publication of figures from 'all settings' appears to lag behind hospital figures by 17 days.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/880261/COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides_-_20_04_2020.pdf

[Stabbsy]

Is this not going to be based on the ONS data releases? 17 day lag on 20/4 takes you back to 3/4, which is when the last ONS release took you up to. In part, this delay will be driven by the time it takes to register a death, but also by the time it takes to collate all the data and produce the release. The latest ONS release came out today (not had chance to look in detail yet), so I'd expect that the lag will drop by 6 days in today's graph if that's the case.

I think this has been linked before (by Stu possibly?), but any key messages from the latest release will probably end up on David Spiegelhalter's Twitter feed reasonably soon - one of the best communicators on risk that I've come across.

https://twitter.com/d_spiegel

[ali k]

Yes, it just seems such a pointless graph to keep displaying when the official total figures have such a long lag and there isn’t surety around what the other countries’ figures include.

Seems the headline message from ONS is more than 15% of deaths occurring outside of hospitals, which is even more than a lot of people have been predicting.

[Nigel]

Interesting to see the press briefing graph comparing with other countries in the last three or four days has started to include deaths in 'hospitals only' separately from 'all settings'. And the publication of figures from 'all settings' appears to lag behind hospital figures by 17 days.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/880261/COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides_-_20_04_2020.pdf

Yes, it just seems such a pointless graph to keep displaying....

It may seem a somewhat trite point for me to make, but even if all our total deaths (all settings) were included properly, any graph is pointless if you can't see what the fuck is going on! Who designed this? Have they heard of the colour "green"? "All settings" is hidden in a morass of lines in what, black? The reason I mention it is that this is meant to be a *clear* visual representation of the data for the consumption of the general public. To my eye it looks designed to obfuscate.

[abarro81]

I think the blue/orange/grey palette with different shades of the given colours is more colourblind-friendly isn't it? IIRC green isn't a great colour for that, might be wrong though

[Nigel]

I'm sure you've nailed it, didn't think of that. Sounds like they do know what they're doing after all. Still, despite the science, it looks unclear to me.

[largeruk]

<iframe height="418px" width="100%" src="https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc799/fig1/line/index.html"></iframe>

<iframe height="831px" width="100%" src="https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc799/fig2/wrapper/index.html"></iframe>

<iframe height="831px" width="100%" src="https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc799/fig3/wrapper/index.html"></iframe>









Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest

Apologies, can't find a way (aka don't know how) to display charts that don't have an image link.

[tomtom]

Todays gonna be a bad day - 870+ waiting for the NI death totals only...

[Oldmanmatt]

Todays gonna be a bad day - 870+ waiting for the NI death totals only...

Weekend catch up?

[tomtom]

Todays gonna be a bad day - 870+ waiting for the NI death totals only...

Weekend catch up?

Yeah - probably. I’m probably labelled as a doom monger on here - but I think it’s so widespread geographically in the UK - it’s going to be like Italy and burble on in the mid hundreds for a few weeks...

If you have just one or two clusters - they may follow the rise and fall nicely. But when you have 20 or 30 concentrations - they will all be phased differently and it’ll rumble on for a while. The states will be like that...

[abarro81]

On the plus side, when you look at the graph for deaths by date of death, 8th April looks likely to have been the peak and that doesn't look set to change (for hospital deaths in England).

(https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/ - front sheet of the all deaths Excel)