[Nigel]

Good news for people. Although implies an expectation we'll be locking down again at some point before October.

[ali k]

Good news for people. Although implies an expectation we'll be locking down again at some point before October.

They’ve found a map for where that magic money tree we were always told didn’t exist is. It’s obviously harder to find when only those scrounging work-shy scum need help.

[stone]

I'm taking part in the antibodies testing study. Here is my anecdotal experience of being tested:..............................................
I hope these delays and confusions are because more urgent cases are being prioritised over volunteers taking part in an academic study to improve understanding but it does not inspire confidence.

It's great that you are participating in that study. I've been really keen to know how widespread COVID19 immunity now is.

Evidently faff and delay is the flavour of the season. I'm still none-the-wiser of why it bedevils the UK (and apparently the US)  COVID19 response and yet some countries do fine. It's possible to get say interflora deliveries to work in the UK. So I don't understand what our problem is. 

[mrjonathanr]

Good news for people. Although implies an expectation we'll be locking down again at some point before October.

With current strategy it’s inevitable imo.

[sdm]

I'm taking part in the antibodies testing study. Here is my anecdotal experience of being tested:..............................................
I hope these delays and confusions are because more urgent cases are being prioritised over volunteers taking part in an academic study to improve understanding but it does not inspire confidence.

It's great that you are participating in that study. I've been really keen to know how widespread COVID19 immunity now is.

The Government have been quoting a figure around 3% for the population outside of London. This is much lower than I was anticipating. Will be interesting to see if the figure changes as more data becomes available.

Evidently faff and delay is the flavour of the season. I'm still none-the-wiser of why it bedevils the UK (and apparently the US)  COVID19 response and yet some countries do fine. It's possible to get say interflora deliveries to work in the UK. So I don't understand what our problem is.

I don't understand why we as a country are so slow at getting on top of the logistics and planning either.

How many vans and lorries are currently sat idle around the country that could be used to assist supply? I would happily load up the campervan with a few thousand test kits and drive them to where they are needed.

The US varies wildly from state to state and county to county. Talking to my colleagues in Texas about shopping there: all shops are closed to walk in customers. Most switched to home delivery only in mid March, with a small number also offering click and collect. They can get delivery slots at will and have almost complete freedom on the day and time they want.

Meanwhile in the UK, my parents are shielding and supposedly get a priority slot from their local supermarket. They have not yet been able to arrange a single delivery through that scheme. Luckily for them, I can deliver shopping to them so they don't have to risk going to the shops themselves. Other vulnerable people aren't so fortunate.

[largeruk]

I'm taking part in the antibodies testing study. Here is my anecdotal experience of being tested:..............................................
I hope these delays and confusions are because more urgent cases are being prioritised over volunteers taking part in an academic study to improve understanding but it does not inspire confidence.

It's great that you are participating in that study. I've been really keen to know how widespread COVID19 immunity now is.

The Government have been quoting a figure around 3% for the population outside of London. This is much lower than I was anticipating. Will be interesting to see if the figure changes as more data becomes available.

At last night presser/Q&A, the CSA said that serology testing had shown that they now estimated c10% of London's population has antibodies present and c4% on average in the rest of the country with some regional variations. Vallance explained this is based on 2 week old ONS data re people who would have had an infection 3 weeks previously so effectively what the estimated position was c5 weeks ago.

Vallance also said that an ongoing ONS study trying to measure the number of people in the population who are infected indicates that c136k are currently infected but with wide intervals of 65k-250k around that central estimate.

It's at 28:15 if anyone wants to listen - https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000jh2f/briefings-downing-street-coronavirus-news-conference-11052020

[Nigel]

Broad brush timeline overview of Britain vs coronavirus: https://appeasement.org/

[sdm]

It's great that you are participating in that study. I've been really keen to know how widespread COVID19 immunity now is.

The Government have been quoting a figure around 3% for the population outside of London. This is much lower than I was anticipating. Will be interesting to see if the figure changes as more data becomes available.

At last night presser/Q&A, the CSA said that serology testing had shown that they now estimated c10% of London's population has antibodies present and c4% on average in the rest of the country with some regional variations. Vallance explained this is based on 2 week old ONS data re people who would have had an infection 3 weeks previously so effectively what the estimated position was c5 weeks ago.

Vallance also said that an ongoing ONS study trying to measure the number of people in the population who are infected indicates that c136k are currently infected but with wide intervals of 65k-250k around that central estimate.

It's at 28:15 if anyone wants to listen - https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000jh2f/briefings-downing-street-coronavirus-news-conference-11052020

Cheers, I couldn't remember the exact figures and could only give it half attention first time around.

[tomtom]

So being 'optimistic' and 10% present infection with 30k dead = mortality rate of 0.5%
To get up to Herd immunity levels of 60% - thats another 150k deaths...

Its probably at least 40k dead at the moment - and infection rate less - but the death rate may decline as treatments and diagnosis improves... so if no vaccine then 180-360k dead...

[Offwidth]

Officially 40k now.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/12/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-passes-40000-official-figures-say

[ali k]

Officially 40k now.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/12/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-passes-40000-official-figures-say

Cue govt ditching the global comparisons.

[Ged]

Officially 40k now.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/12/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-passes-40000-official-figures-say

Cue govt ditching the global comparisons.

Although to be fair, global comparisons probably are a waste of time as every country seems to be using different reporting criteria.  Who knows what the true figure is in Italy etc.  It sounds like Belgium has been much more transparent all along.

[ali k]

Although to be fair, global comparisons probably are a waste of time as every country seems to be using different reporting criteria.  Who knows what the true figure is in Italy etc.  It sounds like Belgium has been much more transparent all along.

Yep, global comparisons or precise league table is difficult to do with certainty. Not denying that. It’s the way the govt have been using it as a propaganda exercise is the issue. They started comparing them every day in the press conferences when we looked good relative to other countries early on. I’ve posted up thread a tweet from a Tory MP comparing our numbers with Italy in the early stages as a way to argue “the strategy is working”. As soon as our death rate looked shit compared to the rest of Europe they started arguing why you couldn’t make international comparisons and that MP deleted his tweet. Now we’ve gone above 40k and are looking really shit compared with the rest of Europe they’re just missing that data out altogether.

And all that despite govt ministers still making comparisons with other countries when the numbers are in their favour. Including Matt Hancock this morning comparing care home deaths. It’s just rank hypocrisy.

[Ged]

Yes I totally agree with the hypocrisy of picking and choosing when and what data to use. It reminds me of some of the shadier tactics used by pharmaceutical companies to make drug trials look good.

I suppose what I mean is, I don't know how much we can believe that we are the worst country in Europe, when there's a good chance other governments are doing the same. God alone knows what the true figure is in Iran and China, who's governments don't exactly have a track record of releasing data that makes them look bad

[galpinos]

I suppose what I mean is, I don't know how much we can believe that we are the worst country in Europe, when there's a good chance other governments are doing the same.

Going off excess deaths stats, we are very much the worst in Europe and worse than the US.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

[dunnyg]

The excess deaths is currently the stat I find most useful. Even if plots are really depressing, they are pretty.

[Nigel]

I suppose what I mean is, I don't know how much we can believe that we are the worst country in Europe, when there's a good chance other governments are doing the same.

Going off excess deaths stats, we are very much the worst in Europe and worse than the US.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

Oh dear. I clearly recall Raab saying at a briefing that we shouldn't compare data yet, the REAL test will come when we can compare excess deaths. Might try and find that. They have obviously chosen the wrong metric to wriggle out of it there, as it will probably look worse than the "normal" recorded figures. Don't let them forget it. I wonder what their excuse / right wing talking point will be after that? Already starting to hear that we have done well because deaths haven't reached half a million yet. Hmmm.

[tomtom]

USA 30k excess deaths. UK 50k excess deaths.

Possible that lockdown was suppressing other forms of death in the US. Interestingly SA is considerably under their regular death rates - again a lockdown effect?

I hate to bring this back to media - but ITV, c4, Sky - all picking up on this. BBC - nothing.

[mrjonathanr]

Both countries with a lot of deaths from firearms, I wonder if that has dropped significantly since March.

[SA Chris]

Definitely the case in SA. Murder rate way down, and their severe lockdown seems to have controlled the outbreak.

[tomtom]

Definitely the case in SA. Murder rate way down, and their severe lockdown seems to have controlled the outbreak.

Thats amazing on both counts - my (niave) perceptions would be parts would be rife for some bad CV outbreaks...

[SA Chris]

It was just about martial law there. Complete curfews.

[Oldmanmatt]

It was just about martial law there. Complete curfews.

I have a good friend and former oppo, who now runs an “executive limo and driver service” across Europe and SA (read between the lines as to the nature of the “Driver’s” training).
Anyway, his business partner/backer is Afrikaans and I get into a weekly argument with him (my oppo, don’t know the partner) because he’s convinced the SA situation, as told to him by said backer, proves the whole thing is a lie and faked here...

Not only is my oppo university educated, he’s a nice bloke (despite the ability to move you rapidly into the next life with one punch). I get the impression from him and my other mates that take his side in our debates, that they just can’t conceive of a foe they can’t control or fight off with sheer will power and physical strength.

Nuts.

Here, this is the gist of his missive:

“I’m in contact a lot with my business partner in Durban , South Africa . The army are patrolling the streets enforcing the lockdown there. The health service unless you have money is pretty much non existent. The black population have huge numbers of people with compromised immune systems due to hepatitis and hiv and no access to healthcare. You’d expect the black people to be dropping like flies , with piles of bodies everywhere in the townships , they are living 20 people to a bathroom in very close proximity to each other. The covid infection is going through the population like wildfire , virtually no government testing there, yet there are no bodies in the streets . Why is that? . Maybe it’s not quite as lethal as was initially thought. Warren buffet says “be greedy when everyone is fearful, be fearful when everyone is greedy” we’ll have to live with current covid 19”

[mrjonathanr]

Definitely the case in SA. Murder rate way down, and their severe lockdown seems to have controlled the outbreak.

Thats amazing on both counts - my (niave) perceptions would be parts would be rife for some bad CV outbreaks...

I understand they have a lot of community contact tracing infrastructure TomTom, established to combat the HIV epidemic. So skills, manpower, experience and political will to implement.

We just have the first two, which helps explain why we are not as successful at coping as one of the poorest nations on earth.

Edit
just read your post saying there’s no community testing in black community OMM. BBC said the opposite?

[SA Chris]

I've got SA mates who are convinced it's all BS too for reasons stated.

No idea as to cause and effect, possibly it's mutated and SA have a less dangerous strain?