I remember - but still don't particularly see why it matters in that age group to be honest.
Quote from: spidermonkey09 on February 16, 2021, 12:17:09 pmI remember - but still don't particularly see why it matters in that age group to be honest.It might not to that age groups mortality - but some will still get it, some will get LC - and it keeps the virus in circulation... Though thats possibly a moot point if borders are kept open and its still ripping/pottering around the rest of the world...
It seems to involve a lot of assumptions, notably:a)100% take-up (or at least over 90%) of the vaccines in all age groups. This requires ignoring all surveys and data on some of the groups who've already been offered the vaccine -- we're already looking at only 80% for NHS staff and arounds two-thirds for social care staff.andb) steady and continuous increase in vaccination rates, with no logistical limits on either the ability to keep expanding the vaccine rollout programme or on vaccine supply.Whereas we're currently looking at a drop in vaccine supply across the UK before we get back to current levels at the start of March:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-56025767I'm very hopeful we will start to see a rapid fall in Covid deaths and hospitalisations, but the article's into "perfectly spherical cow" territory if it's trying to make realistic predictions about what we might manage when.
Just saying the article seems to be based on the limited information we know at the moment - not what we are going to find out!
And dangerous, given the Statesman's readership among the sort of Tories currently demanding set dates (the sooner the better) for all restrictions to be removed.
This optimism assumes the UK’s borders will be adequately controlled and that the risk of vaccine-evading variants is effectively eliminated by doing so.
Believe it or not, I'm actually pretty optimistic about this whole thing right now. We should start seeing a drop-off in hospitalizations and deaths soon, and be able to start lifting restrictions in the summer. And in the longer term, we might well be able to wrangle this into something where maybe vulnerable people get booster shots every year and it's no bigger deal than flu. Maybe there'll be a "bad Covid winter" from time to time and we all get advised to wear masks on the bus for a few months.
I think I'm not -- I have the impression the NS sometimes leans into a "contrarian"/quasi-libertarian vibe. But I am not a regular reader and have no stats on their readership so I apologize if I'm maligning them!
Latest on outdoor risks:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/19/how-the-beach-super-spreader-myth-can-inform-uks-future-covid-response