[mrjonathanr]

Your point is a good one.

Impactful on whether your communication is met with compliance is whether you comply with it yourself.

Cummings', Jenrick's and Johnson's own failure to comply with their own strictures rather undermines the message.

[sdm]

Attempting to blame it all on the new variant doesn't cut it for me.

Being blindsided by the new variant was a valid excuse for the rapid spread in Kent and London during the last 2 weeks of November, when nobody knew about it, and maybe the first week of December.

But the effects of the new variant began to show up in the data by the last week of November. In the first week of December, it was looking bad and by the second week of December, it was clear that much stricter action was required urgently if we were to avoid the sort of deathrate that we have seen.

It certainly wasn't a valid excuse for the failings from mid December and in to January.

[tomtom]

The FT has a good summary here. Similar in the NYT too.

https://www.ft.com/content/6792b1eb-ffd1-4f45-b2d9-59c7f40ef785

[Nigel]

C'mon guys, listen to the man, there will be a time to reflect, but it isn't now*

*Or ever. Oh OK maybe a tame inquiry in a couple of decades or more, once everyone involved is safely out of the way c.f. Hillsborough, Iraq. Conclusion spoiler - "lessons will be learnt". The end.

Fairly sure I made this same point on here last April. No-one should have bought it then, surely no-one will now? If they can't hold their hands up to the obvious mistakes then what hope they'll start to get it right? That this is still the govt line is frankly unbelievable.

[mrjonathanr]

As someone else put it, when you are losing 3-0 at half time it isn’t good enough for the manager to declare ‘there will be a time to reconsider our tactics, but not before the game is over’.

[slab_happy]

As I understand it there is a quite significant issue with uptake in minority groups due to long standing healthcare inequalities and distrust of govt.

There's also been some nasty shit with anti-vaxxer campaigns targeting ethnic minority communities, building off that existing distrust and alienation: https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7mpkm/anti-vaxxers-are-targeting-ethnic-minority-communities-with-wild-conspiracy-theories

Some impressive stuff from folks organizing in response, though:

https://twitter.com/adilray/status/1353677950550495243

https://takethecovid19vaccine.com/ (info in SO MANY languages)

East London Mosque coming out swinging: https://twitter.com/elondonmosque/status/1352696152773242881

[seankenny]

My partner is part of the Covid Bereaved Families for Justice campaign which has been asking for a public enquiry since the summer.

She also spoke to Kier Starmer yesterday:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-accused-failing-listen-23396333

[Offwidth]

As I understand it there is a quite significant issue with uptake in minority groups due to long standing healthcare inequalities and distrust of govt.

There's also been some nasty shit with anti-vaxxer campaigns targeting ethnic minority communities, building off that existing distrust and alienation: https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7mpkm/anti-vaxxers-are-targeting-ethnic-minority-communities-with-wild-conspiracy-theories

Some impressive stuff from folks organizing in response, though:

https://twitter.com/adilray/status/1353677950550495243

https://takethecovid19vaccine.com/ (info in SO MANY languages)

East London Mosque coming out swinging: https://twitter.com/elondonmosque/status/1352696152773242881

A vaccination centre in Nottingham apparently had to be moved partly due to security issues with anti-vaxers. It must be horrible to be an exhausted NHS worker passing these loons every day going in and out of work.

Some really good analysis on restriction compliance showing it is mostly very good despite all the hot air  The sub thread looks at where there are problem areas and by far the most serious reason is low paid workers who can't afford to self isolate.

 https://twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1349459843833352192

The NHS gossip grapevine is showing more indications of heavy handed and arguably dangerous PHE intervention. Where Pfizer needs using up or be wasted it is said some vaccination centres have been explicitly told it is not allowed to use this as a second dose for NHS frontline staff. Public Health England seemingly putting politics in front of maximising NHS employee safety.

[Stu Littlefair]

I think I’m in favour of restrictions like the one above. There’s clearly an issue waiting to happen here: it seems quite widespread to use vaccine that would otherwise be wasted to give to NHS staff.

That seems like a no-brainer but at some point you’re going to run out of frontline staff and giving the vaccine to whoever is walking past is not a strategy.

This use of “wastage” shows that we need a better system in place for strategically using spare doses and as long as it’s easy for centres to just jab the arms of nearby staff, we won’t get that better system in place.

[tomtom]

I suspect thats fine in principle, but hard to do in reality.

Scenario playing: If you run a centre - and have 200 booked in a day - if 10-20 no show - and its at the shelf life of the bottle, then you either do whats happening (vaccinate anyone willing) or have a on-call waiting list. Such a list sounds easy - but I bet its a bugger to administrate! If you had 10 left over - maybe with 1 hour notice - do you call around 20 people? If 20 then turn up you have to turn some away etc...

You can probably factor in no-shows and overbook (then maybe have the centre stay open longer - or have people waiting) but its a risky strategy - what happens if everyone shows up and you've run out! Its not quite the same as booking a short haul flight!!

Its worth remembering that a jab given to anyone is not necessarily a jab wasted - its just a jab not given most efficiently/effectively in terms of helping NHS hospital pressure.

[ali k]

Had a text this morning inviting me to book my vaccination. Very slick booking process and lots of available slots for Saturday morning at a health centre 10mins from my house. Can't fault it.

Also found out this morning that my mum's been invited for hers but hasn't taken it up. She's always tried to avoid taking unneccessary medication (pain relief, antibiotics etc) which is fair enough, but I didn't expect this. Her reasoning is a general suspicion of the Govt and by extension anything they've been involved with. Hoping I can persuade her otherwise.

[abarro81]

I think I broadly agree with Stu.

I suspect thats fine in principle, but hard to do in reality.

As Stu points out, you have to have a system for this that's not just using it on staff, because at some point you'll have done them all twice. And the longer you don't set a decent system up for, the sooner the system needs to be almost perfect..

 Presumably the ideal is a  "no use for staff 2nd doses policy" that's quite light touch, i.e. if you're regularly using your 10 spare doses on 2nd jabs for staff because you've not set up a system that works then you get told off. If you're mostly using them on a reserve list and just using the odd one here or there where the reserve list fails then they let that go.

[tomtom]

Some systems are national - most are local (ours is via our Gp) so there are going to be lots of different ways it’s organised. I expect the cases being mentioned are a few hundred in several hundred k vaccinations given daily...

Having run events (not vaccinations!!) based on being full with reserve lists - I’m just saying it’s not as simple as it might seem. People are rarely predictable!! So I’ve some sympathy for those organising this!

[tomtom]

Useful link/tool for those who don’t know their NHS number (having it may help when booking a cv19 jab)

https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/online-services/find-nhs-number/

[duncan]

Also found out this morning that my mum's been invited for hers but hasn't taken it up. She's always tried to avoid taking unneccessary medication (pain relief, antibiotics etc) which is fair enough, but I didn't expect this. Her reasoning is a general suspicion of the Govt and by extension anything they've been involved with. Hoping I can persuade her otherwise.

That’s frustrating and probably a little worrying.

She raises a common concern. Hesitancy is also linked with suspicions about Big Pharma and multinational health organisations. All of which are quite understandable.

Behaviour change 101: explore her concerns thoroughly if you can. Anything specific about governments/ this government? Could take some time. For most people, personal stories and observed behaviours work better to change health behaviour than statistics and ‘science’. Do you know of any friends or peers of her who have had the jab?

[ali k]

Anything specific about governments/ this government? Do you know of any friends or peers of her who have had the jab?

She knows how much I detest this government so I'm hoping that by having it myself I can persuade her to put that to one side.

Her dislike of medicines has nothing to do with a distrust of Big Pharma - just a desire not to put unneccessary drugs into her body, which I can understand. Though sometimes she takes it a bit far, like after knee replacements being reluctant to even take a few paracetamols to ease the pain!

[SA Chris]

Also found out this morning that my mum's been invited for hers but hasn't taken it up. She's always tried to avoid taking unneccessary medication (pain relief, antibiotics etc) which is fair enough, but I didn't expect this. Her reasoning is a general suspicion of the Govt and by extension anything they've been involved with. Hoping I can persuade her otherwise.

My Parents in Law, both in their 70s are showing signs of dithering when asked when they are getting theirs. One is a smoker, with a history of respiratory issues. My Brother-in-law is asthmatic and he's made it clear to them he will avoid contact with them until either they get a vaccine or he does, so hopefully they will see sense.

[Stu Littlefair]

Having run events (not vaccinations!!) based on being full with reserve lists - I’m just saying it’s not as simple as it might seem. People are rarely predictable!! So I’ve some sympathy for those organising this!

In Israel I believe they ran a system where anyone without an appointment could hang around in the hope that there'd be a spare jab at the end of the day. Something like this could work; it's no more optimal than giving it to passing NHS staff, but it does have the advantage that you won't eventually run out of people to offer it to.

Could be off the ground pretty quick too, so you could carry on vaccinating NHS staff with "spare" vaccines until that stopped working; as long as you'd got the system up and running first

[Stabbsy]

In Israel I believe they ran a system where anyone without an appointment could hang around in the hope that there'd be a spare jab at the end of the day. Something like this could work; it's no more optimal than giving it to passing NHS staff, but it does have the advantage that you won't eventually run out of people to offer it to.

Sorry, struggling with the logic here. You think having people hanging around outside hospitals waiting for spare vaccines is a better (or not worse) approach than giving a second dose to NHS staff working in hospitals treating Covid patients? Couple of thoughts - one practical and one more emotive.

First, using "spare" doses as a second dose would strike me as being more efficient because you're closing off future contingent demand, not creating more contingent demand for second doses in 4/8/12 weeks. I'd imagine this will be particularly important in the event of disruption to supply of one or other vaccine going forwards.

Second point depends on your view of where NHS staff should be prioritised in the vaccine queue, but I'd argue a high priority is right. Maybe not all NHS staff but for anyone patient facing or required to work on site, I wouldn't begrudge them the perk of feeling a bit safer when they go to work. It's easy to forget that risk sat in my attic having not been into my office for nearly 12 months. By all means, have a call list for local people who could come in at short notice and prioritise them accordingly (this is what was happening in Glossop from what I'd heard), but the described Israel approach sounds massively sub-optimal to me.

[Offwidth]

There are already internal links and public calls in the vaccination centres that work on a day or two turnround, following no shows, to prevent wastage. These get current or next on list people in very efficiently, but on the last day of shelf life they are impractical. We got a few 80 year olds their first shot early that way (next day appointments). We know people in their 70s who have been first dose vaccinated in similar circumstances. NHS internal links operate much faster than public calls and were used  to prevent wastage for first dose. In the end having front line staff vaccinated twice in such situations when staff absences and anxiety levels are so high seems to me a no brainer and binning usable vaccine is plain dumb. The NHS employs a lot of people so they wont run out of volunteers quickly. I cant see 'wait and see' being useful as it would need to be prioritized and will risk attracting the anti-vax nutters.

The vast majority of people in ICU are under 85 so extreme pressures there are set to remain for months. Indie SAGE did a good piece on age demographics in hospital last week... starts at 10:30 and lasts a few minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKTHqyFfzFs&feature=youtu.be

[Stu Littlefair]

Several responses to your post Stabbsy.

The first is that using spare vaccines at vaccine centre to NHS staff or whoever is there by chance does not mean giving it to “staff in hospitals treating COVID patients”. As more people get vaccinated it increasingly means “whoever is around and not vaccinated”.

In time, it is gets more and more like my suggestion, except the pool of potential recipients will get so small vaccine is wasted.

Second, you missed my point that it would be fine, no preferable, to vaccinate NHS staff as a priority, but you need a backup system in place, so why not run a system like the one I’ve described. 

[Ru]

Had a text this morning inviting me to book my vaccination. Very slick booking process and lots of available slots for Saturday morning at a health centre 10mins from my house. Can't fault it

I hope this is genuine, but as a general word of warning, there is a scam text going around at the moment inviting people for vaccinations that looks like it's from the NHS, backed up by quite a convincing looking application process that asks for credit card details (which should set off most people's alarm bells anyway).

https://conversation.which.co.uk/scams/scam-nhs-covid-vaccine-text-message/

[ali k]

I hope this is genuine, but as a general word of warning, there is a scam text going around at the moment inviting people for vaccinations

Yeh I was surprised it came through by text. But definitely genuine. I'm in the vulnerable group so was expecting something through.

For future reference to anyone that receives one: The text was addressed to me by name with a link to a booking site (book.nhs.me/r/....). And signed off with the name of my GP surgery. The only details it asked for were DOB to confirm identity and then gave a list of available appointment times. The address of the clinic to get it done was somewhere I've been for appointments previously and definitely no credit card info needed!!

[Stabbsy]

Several responses to your post Stabbsy.

The first is that using spare vaccines at vaccine centre to NHS staff or whoever is there by chance does not mean giving it to “staff in hospitals treating COVID patients”. As more people get vaccinated it increasingly means “whoever is around and not vaccinated”.

Fair response, but I'll explain my thinking - noting that I might be drawing incorrect conclusions from the bits that I know. Firstly, I think the spare doses thing is likely to be more of an issue with the Pfizer vaccine because of the cold chain storage - once it's removed from cold storage, it has to be used in a set period. Also, because of the storage requirements, I think the Pfizer vaccine is being given in hospitals more than in the community and vice versa for Astra Zeneca. This wasn't the case at the start because there was only the Pfizer vaccine, but anecdotally that seems to be the case now. That has certainly been the case for the various family members that have had the vaccine in the last month - those in hospitals had Pfizer, those in the community had Astra Zeneca. I appreciate it's a small sample and that this conclusion might be wrong.

If that conclusion is right, then you aren't just giving spare Pfizer vaccines to whoever's passing or there by chance, you're giving it to staff on site in a hospital. Not only that, but you're giving it to people who were already deemed priority enough to be given the first dose.

In time, it is gets more and more like my suggestion, except the pool of potential recipients will get so small vaccine is wasted.

I agree with this and agree that some alternate approach is needed once NHS staff have been dealt with, but I think the Israel suggestion is a poor one - no prioritisation and potential of people hanging around a hospital on the off chance of getting a vaccine. As I said, have an on call list as they did (I think) in Glossop. Also sounds like what Offwidth is referring to in Nottingham.

Second, you missed my point that it would be fine, no preferable, to vaccinate NHS staff as a priority, but you need a backup system in place, so why not run a system like the one I’ve described. 

That wasn't how I interpreted your post, so apologies. Your first post on the topic started with "I think I'm in favour of the restrictions posted above" and that was what I was responding to as I'm not in favour of those restrictions for the two reasons I posted.

[tomtom]

This article made my jaw drop.

You know the lateral flow test kits - that don’t work especially well?

The ones the government seems to try and give away to use in all sorts of places - universities, hospitals, schools (before they were closed)... part of operation moonshot.

Well it’s part of a near £1bn deal with a previously small company - (the biggest single deal to any one company) and guess how many of them we’ve committed to buy?

380 million. 😱

Pre Xmas they were delivering 4.5 million of them a day.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/28/how-uk-spent-800m-on-controversial-covid-tests-for-dominic-cummings-scheme?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other