[nai]

(as they are open for some unknown reason)

Private businesses that would otherwise go bust according to Matt Hancock.

Edit: found the source now:

https://twitter.com/NadiaWhittomeMP/status/1346406298615767042

[Duma]

worrying that a couple of folk in america seem to have caught it after getting their first dose of the Pfizer vacc, esp given our govs strategy of delaying second doses

[Bonjoy]

As suggested by OMM I've split the recent school/home-schooling related stuff into a new topic. Apologies if anyone's post has been put in the wrong place!

[tomtom]

worrying that a couple of folk in america seem to have caught it after getting their first dose of the Pfizer vacc, esp given our govs strategy of delaying second doses

It’s 95% effective with both doses - given the US has vaccinated 4 million - that’s 200 000 people who could get it (from those vaccinated). If we assume 1 in 100 people (really depends on the infection rate I know) then that’s 2000+ people who will have caught it having been vaccinated.

Iirc the really good news is that only one person in the trials (poss none) died after vaccination, so even if it doesn’t prevent it - it seems to prevent serious illness to an even greater degree. Afaik this is one of the big points of the Oxford vaccine - it’s a lower protection rate - but similarly gives a much larger reduction in the number of serious cases.

[spidermonkey09]

worrying that a couple of folk in america seem to have caught it after getting their first dose of the Pfizer vacc, esp given our govs strategy of delaying second doses

I don't think thats worrying at all. As TT has said, its to be expected. Media reporting two people getting it after thousands have had the jab is irresponsible as far as I'm concerned; it just causes unnecessary panic.

From what I have read of the 12 week strategy it seems sensible, borne out by other countries pivoting to it. Whilst there is limited data for it that doesn't necessarily mean its a bad idea; there is the obvious plus side of protecting more people right here and now and a massive bank of data that while not directly relevant to this specific jab, suggests that a 12 week gap is fine for other vaccines and so is more than likely to be fine for this one as well. My issues with reportage stand on this issue as well. We could do without an anti vacc movement gaining serious traction like it has in France and these sort of stories only make it more likely.

[tomtom]

Yes - If you listen to Pfizer and AstraZ they don’t recommend delaying the booster simply because they have no data on what happens - as they’ve not tested it. It wasn’t in their trials.

They are totally covering their arses - which is totally right.

[spidermonkey09]

Yes - If you listen to Pfizer and AstraZ they don’t recommend delaying the booster simply because they have no data on what happens - as they’ve not tested it. It wasn’t in their trials.

They are totally covering their arses - which is totally right.

100%. It just annoys me when I read piece (on both right and left) breathlessly saying 'this is so irresponsible, there is no data to support this,' as its only half the story. We have a massive amount of data on flu vaccines, just not this specific one. It was also interesting the BMA didn't have a problem with the change of strategy, only with the cancellation of existing appointments to give second dose to people.

[Will Hunt]

Merely an observation. Is it any wonder the government thought that kids didn't need feeding during the school holidays in a time when a cup of peppermint tea is a picnic and a scotch egg is a substantial meal?

[Offwidth]

It was also interesting the BMA didn't have a problem with the change of strategy, only with the cancellation of existing appointments to give second dose to people.

My dad got his second dose yesterday so there was clearly some leeway.

In the meantime, to cheer people up, spare a thought that death rates are already locked in to at least double from their current position (assuming hospitals don't break when it will be a good bit worse). The next few weeks will be really bad.

[mrjonathanr]

Adam Kucharski tweet with data showing increase risk for both direct and near contact.
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1347871050311344129

[Oldmanmatt]

What’s the population of Greater London?

Doesn’t really matter, after all, 30, really isn’t a significant number of them.

I take this as a good sign, to be fair. The reality must be sinking in to some very thick skulls:

[Fiend]

So if you thought the rules / guidelines / recommendations for outdoor exercise were vague, spare a thought for those poor religious chaps and chapesses:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-53219921

Take a drink for every time they use "should" or don't have any specifics to the restrictions involved and you'll soon be too pissed to care about lockdown:

In the areas of the UK where communal worship is allowed, a number of common measures are in place:

Services should be carried out in the shortest possible time - to ensure safety and minimise infection spread

Worshippers should keep a 2m (6ft) distance from anyone not from their own household or support bubble

People must not mingle with anyone not in their own household or support bubble, and should be "encouraged to move on promptly" afterwards

If shoes are removed before a service, people should avoid touching other people's

There should be no shared items such as prayer mats, service sheets, religious texts or hymn books - worshippers should bring their own and then take them home

If people can't bring their own books, places of worship can offer a selection for individuals to use - these should be quarantined for 48 hours before and after use

Those giving and receiving food and drink in a service will have to observe strict precautions

Spoken responses from worshippers should be uttered softly and communal singing avoided to reduce the risk of transmission

If singing is an essential part of the service, and a recording can't be played, only one person should sing - preferably behind a plexi-glass screen, or facing away from worshippers

[Oldmanmatt]

I don’t have a problem avoiding other people’s recently removed shoes.

If you do, you’re a naughty, naughty boy. Go and have a nice cold shower and say ten hail Marys.

[tomtom]

We live c.50 m from a large Mosque. They’ve been pretty careful - Friday prayers now has 2-3 shifts and they clearly limit those coming in. There’s a booking system etc....

That said - there’s still people sharing lifts to get there - a bit of hanging around outside chatting after etc... but mostly fine.

Though I’m surprised it’s not been stopped in the recent lockdown - as it’s probably worse for contact than going shopping etc... a bit.

[mrjonathanr]

So worshipping Mammon has moved up in your estimation eh, TT? 

[Oldmanmatt]

I’ve been wondering all day (as some of you know) about sharing my heightened anxiety about the way the pandemic is heading.
This morning a family phone call, has pushed the nagging worry from the back of my mind, much further forward.
This worry was seeded by a knowledgeable family member, early last week and that same person called today, because we now have several family members positive and some very ill. People my age and even ten years younger. They have no underlying conditions. None. We expect one to be hospitalised before the night is out.
The seed, that was in the back of my head, germinating away, was a comment about viral load. The new variant is infectious at a smaller viral load.
The comment and the worry of the person who called, was “if the infectious load threshold is lower and we are correct about initial viral load influencing the severity of infection, then we have to consider that the potential for serious infection has also increased”.
I didn’t really know what to think, or whether saying something is daft, without anything more than somebody else’s intuition.
Then I sat down after the dog walk to read through the papers.
I’m sorry, it’s probably paywalled, I know a few can get around that, but the first paragraph carries the gist. I really really hope I’m just getting old and silly. Please, if you have any data or have reliably heard otherwise....

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/we-have-patients-in-their-twenties-and-generations-from-the-same-family-ctkp5mb9k?utm_source=Twitter_Fb&utm_campaign=Dr_John_Covid&utm_medium=branded_social&utm_term=Dr_John_Covid&utm_content=Dr_John_Covid&fbclid=IwAR0llFMVDd0-YiV6z_vOgdqnk0_OoN8xaw7gUCXeNbcqNKlNJKifBgEkm5E

[Stu Littlefair]

Matt, I’m really sorry to hear about your family.  It’s early days for solid research but everything I’ve read suggests it does not cause more serious illness.
 
E.g https://www.ft.com/content/04f4120f-fa5f-4e79-93d6-55170057980f

Even if the odds of fit middle aged people getting seriously ill hasn’t changed, we’d still expect more of these cases to come to light, just because there are so many more people infected.

It’s no comfort for you or your family, but maybe that helps the general levels of anxiety you are feeling?

[Snoops]

Hopefully I can in a perverse way reassure you.
Although the new variant clearly exists and has a higher transmission rate there is no evidence it has a higher morbidity.

The elephant in the room/confounding factor is the south has been hit really hard, the south also had tier 2 leading into Xmas with dinners out/small parties/restaurants and bars open, even the pantomime was on.
Interestingly up north  where we were locked down things are very different, in fact in Sheffield we have a lowering incidence and elective surgery is not threatened at all. (I’m a surgeon)

I find it curious how the media chooses to focus on the new ‘variant’ and not the relationship between  incidence now in areas and what lock down they were in prior.
We are also clearly now going to see the effect of Boris’s Xmas day slackening. Hope it was worth the cost

[Johnny Brown]

I posted similar thoughts on the other thread, regional rates are now the opposite of where they were in Nov. Glad to hear Sheffield hospitals are still managing well.

[mrjonathanr]

Hi Matt, I am very sorry to hear about your family, anxious times. Hopefully things will turn around, but it must be worrying. From a non-medical background, initial load I understood as a factor whether you fell ill or shrugged off the virus after contact but not that initial load was to some extent a determiner of severity. Perhaps that is not proven?

It is a horribly capricious illness affecting people in unpredictable ways. Hopefully you won't have to wait too long before your relatives start feeling better.

[Bonjoy]

I’ve been wondering all day (as some of you know) about sharing my heightened anxiety about the way the pandemic is heading.
This morning a family phone call, has pushed the nagging worry from the back of my mind, much further forward.
This worry was seeded by a knowledgeable family member, early last week and that same person called today, because we now have several family members positive and some very ill. People my age and even ten years younger. They have no underlying conditions. None. We expect one to be hospitalised before the night is out.
The seed, that was in the back of my head, germinating away, was a comment about viral load. The new variant is infectious at a smaller viral load.
The comment and the worry of the person who called, was “if the infectious load threshold is lower and we are correct about initial viral load influencing the severity of infection, then we have to consider that the potential for serious infection has also increased”.
I didn’t really know what to think, or whether saying something is daft, without anything more than somebody else’s intuition.
Then I sat down after the dog walk to read through the papers.
I’m sorry, it’s probably paywalled, I know a few can get around that, but the first paragraph carries the gist. I really really hope I’m just getting old and silly. Please, if you have any data or have reliably heard otherwise....

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/we-have-patients-in-their-twenties-and-generations-from-the-same-family-ctkp5mb9k?utm_source=Twitter_Fb&utm_campaign=Dr_John_Covid&utm_medium=branded_social&utm_term=Dr_John_Covid&utm_content=Dr_John_Covid&fbclid=IwAR0llFMVDd0-YiV6z_vOgdqnk0_OoN8xaw7gUCXeNbcqNKlNJKifBgEkm5E

Really sorry to hear about your family Matt.
I did wonder a similar thing earlier in the pandemic. It would stand to reason that infectious dose from household spread would be on average higher than from community spread. This would be true regardless of minimum infectious dose, so you'd expect it would hold true for previous and current strains. If there were a simple relationship between viral load and morbidity from household transmission you'd expect it would have become very apparent by now. Which makes me think it maybe doesn't work like that.

[Snoops]

I posted similar thoughts on the other thread, regional rates are now the opposite of where they were in Nov. Glad to hear Sheffield hospitals are still managing well.

Have now seen that and agree.
We are for sure nationwide getting  a spike on the back of Christmas mixing but relatively S.York’s in a good place.
Imagine having a government that had foresight.......

[tomtom]

I posted similar thoughts on the other thread, regional rates are now the opposite of where they were in Nov. Glad to hear Sheffield hospitals are still managing well.

Have now seen that and agree.
We are for sure nationwide getting  a spike on the back of Christmas mixing but relatively S.York’s in a good place.
Imagine having a government that had foresight.......

Sheffield seems to have fared much better than Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham and Newcastle (where infection rates are all rising fast)- any thoughts why? Would have thought the demographics were pretty similar....

On another point - I’m sure we’ve all started hearing about friends/people we know getting CV19 in this recent surge, but I’ve also started hearing a few people saying “we didnt bother getting tested - because we know we’ve probably got it”. Not heard this since the April/May initial peak - and wonder if there is some under-reporting because of this... though suspect this behaviour can be picked up in the positivity rate of tests.

[Snoops]

I posted similar thoughts on the other thread, regional rates are now the opposite of where they were in Nov. Glad to hear Sheffield hospitals are still managing well.

Have now seen that and agree.
We are for sure nationwide getting  a spike on the back of Christmas mixing but relatively S.York’s in a good place.
Imagine having a government that had foresight.......

Sheffield seems to have fared much better than Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham and Newcastle (where infection rates are all rising fast)- any thoughts why? Would have thought the demographics were pretty similar....

On another point - I’m sure we’ve all started hearing about friends/people we know getting CV19 in this recent surge, but I’ve also started hearing a few people saying “we didnt bother getting tested - because we know we’ve probably got it”. Not heard this since the April/May initial peak - and wonder if there is some under-reporting because of this... though suspect this behaviour can be picked up in the positivity rate of tests.

That’s a fair point, and testing isn’t a level playing field. Sheffield has so far refused mass testing, as an inappropriate use of resources so pickup would be lower.
However at odds with this is hospital admissions are now significantly lower  than other areas.
This should be perhaps the measure rather than infection rates.
Consensus amongst colleagues feel perhaps due to a very strong community education policy in terms of outbreak management, as a city secondary care and community has linked well.
We don’t know for sure though.
Everywhere is going to spike for a couple of weeks on the back of Xmas.

[galpinos]

On another point - I’m sure we’ve all started hearing about friends/people we know getting CV19 in this recent surge, but I’ve also started hearing a few people saying “we didnt bother getting tested - because we know we’ve probably got it”. Not heard this since the April/May initial peak - and wonder if there is some under-reporting because of this... though suspect this behaviour can be picked up in the positivity rate of tests.

Went for another test at the airport last week and, anecdotally, it was deserted and getting a slot was easy for same day (400 odd slots available). With the current infection rates, you'd think it would be busy.

In Manchester from first hand reports, South Manchester seems to be doing ok (feels less bad that Oct/Nov) but North Manchester seems pretty grim, and has been since the Oct/Nov surge. Two friends had colleagues die last week. London sounds pretty grim too from reports from my sister in law, real all hands on deck scenario, surgical consultants doing HCA shifts in ICU etc.....