[Oldmanmatt]

I like the "who says" at the end of the link.

No, he’s on first, Watt’s on the end.

[Oldmanmatt]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

Well, that didn’t last long...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/09/world/coronavirus-updates.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur#link-452d2061

[Oldmanmatt]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

The contradictions in the “scientific” advice on how this disease spreads, is astounding.

This Japanese paper, ironically on the CDC site, seems to conclude that it’s spread primarily by young adults, pre or asymptomatic:

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/9/20-2272_article

[gme]

My conclusion is no one has a clue and are all winging it. Some are doing better than others.

[tomtom]

My conclusion is no one has a clue and are all winging it. Some are doing better than others.

In which case you devise your policy to cover both bases - until you know otherwise. I suspect this may be one of the big issues when it comes to making policy.

Btw - anyone here want to eat in a restaurant for an hour or two with only 1m spacing? Just a straw poll...

[ali k]

Btw - anyone here want to eat in a restaurant for an hour or two with only 1m spacing? Just a straw poll...

Latest polling already shows overwhelming lack of public support for relaxing 2m rule. I’m also a no on that one.

[tomtom]

Me too

[Oldmanmatt]

Me too

Me 2m

[tomtom]

One of my more visceral pre lockdown memories is going for an early eve dinner with friends and their toddler at a local Italian chain - 10 days before official lockdown - so early March. Towards the end of the meal - the place started Filling up and right behind me at a big table of ten (family meal - complete with 80-90 yo granny) arrived. Woman sat right behind me - late 20’s early 30’s had a right hacking cough - like a 60 yo smoker. Kept apologising to the table for it and coughing into her armpit - towards me... I got up and moved to sit next to others in our party on a bench seat because of this - then we left etc... I often wonder what happened to this family. Did the young woman have it? (Probably given the prevalence in Manchester then) did the old lady get it and survive etc. Etc..

I’m not in a hurry to go into such an environment again. I really feel for all those in the hospitality sector who are craving for distance rules to be relaxed and for business to reopen (if you believe the Tory press). I don’t think it’ll be that simple and many people simply won’t go. I like having a meal out with friends And family etc..  - but not that much.

I have mused that rather than prop up this sector - and hope things will be back to ‘normal’ one day - maybe we should accept that a load (millions I know) of jobs will be lost in bars and restaraunt and divert the money from propping up to investing in a new area - something where we maybe make something or create something... new green deal etc.. is one option but not the only one. My tuppence on the back of a fag packet etc...

[T_B]

I work in travel. Will people want to get on aeroplanes again? Some will, some won’t. Businesses in leisure/hospitality/travel will have to adapt as there will be fewer customers. I would not want to be in a business in any of these sectors that competes on price/volume.

That said I don’t think the experience of travelling with like-minded people will be replaced by a digital experience. It might well be that those areas that aren’t so obviously in an immediate pickle are the ones where we see some of the biggest changes.

[Ru]

Anecdotally, from an ICU nurse on a covid ward, admission numbers for CV on her ward were starting to noticeably rise again as of about the start of last week.

Most admissions seem to be in their 30s - 50s (presumably this reflects the working population), about 50% of admissions end up intubated. Of those intubated they have so far had 3(!) people recover.

Also of some concern was that she had been off work, ill, for about a week in April. She had a test that confirmed she had CV-19, however an antibody test recently that said she had not got immunity.

Must admit, I was starting to get a bit more relaxed about it all until that (socially distanced, outside) conversation.

[teestub]

Btw - anyone here want to eat in a restaurant for an hour or two with only 1m spacing? Just a straw poll...

I’m keen, once we have half decent antibody testing and some proof that having had the virus conveys immunity.

[mrjonathanr]

Also of some concern was that she had been off work, ill, for about a week in April. She had a test that confirmed she had CV-19, however an antibody test recently that said she had not got immunity.

A friend of mine, research biochemist, tells me he generally does not produce antibodies in response to vaccines and drs have given up after a few attempts at getting him to produce them on several occasions. What that means about his immune response if infected I have no idea, but it may be an idiosyncratic response which occurs in a small % of population. The issue might be her test, the virus, or her particular immune system. Perhaps hard to know?

[tomtom]

Thats a concerning story Ru - one thing that comes across from a multitude of CV19 studies is just how weird it is... with c8 million known cases worldwide by now you'd have thought we'd have seen all the weird things it can do...

Edit - another 1500 new cases today... its just not dropping here like it did in Spain (and to a lesser extent Italy)...

[galpinos]

Anecdotally, from an ICU nurse on a covid ward, admission numbers for CV on her ward were starting to noticeably rise again as of about the start of last week.

Most admissions seem to be in their 30s - 50s (presumably this reflects the working population), about 50% of admissions end up intubated. Of those intubated they have so far had 3(!) people recover.

Also of some concern was that she had been off work, ill, for about a week in April. She had a test that confirmed she had CV-19, however an antibody test recently that said she had not got immunity.

Must admit, I was starting to get a bit more relaxed about it all until that (socially distanced, outside) conversation.

Speaking to a consultant from t'other side of the Penines to us who said the same thing yesterday. Wife was very disappointed to come up antibody negative, she had convinced herself she'd had it (we were all ill at the same time, daughter the worst spiking high temps).

[nik at work]

Negative antibody test doesn’t mean you haven’t had it. I can’t remember the exact figures I saw but there is evidence that at 8(?? From memory, don’t quote me) weeks post infection antibody levels drop (or can drop) below the threshold for a positive test.
Whilst this is in no way at all conclusive evidence that immunity is not retained, it is possibly not a great sign.

[nai]

Edit - another 1500 new cases today... its just not dropping here like it did in Spain (and to a lesser extent Italy)...

Worked out on a fag packet that we started six days behind them as it all escalted but are now around four weeks behind on recovery. France more like six weeks.

[sdm]

Negative antibody test doesn’t mean you haven’t had it. I can’t remember the exact figures I saw but there is evidence that at 8(?? From memory, don’t quote me) weeks post infection antibody levels drop (or can drop) below the threshold for a positive test.
Whilst this is in no way at all conclusive evidence that immunity is not retained, it is possibly not a great sign.

BBC's More or Less looked at the antibody tests from Roche and one other company, I forget who. They concluded that the data had been cherry picked to appear far better than the truth and that many qualifications and caveats were required before the tests were worthwhile.

Without those caveats reducing the sample size, you might as well ask a magic 8 ball whether or not you've had covid-19.

[andy popp]

Interesting, thorough analysis.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-should-we-aim-for-herd-immunity-like-sweden-b1de3348e88b

[tomtom]

Great article Andy.

[tomtom]

Reflecting on that article it’s really interesting. Nice mix of simple metaphor and some decent more complex thinking. What fascinated me was how those countries that have gone down the herd immunity to protect the economy route have had their economy’s screwed anyway - because of non prescribed behavioural changes. And the gaining Herd Immunity seems to take far longer than people thought - so the pain whilst experiencing immunity building goes on and on.

[mrjonathanr]

And the gaining Herd Immunity seems to take far longer than people thought - so the pain whilst experiencing immunity building goes on and on.

There is an unproven assumption there. Just look at recent posts on this thread.

[andy popp]

What fascinated me was how those countries that have gone down the herd immunity to protect the economy route have had their economy’s screwed anyway - because of non prescribed behavioural changes.

This was always going to be the case, partly because of those behavioural changes. But, in addition, the idea that in a globalised world any individual economy would be able to insulate itself from such a shock to the global economy was patently nonsense.

[tomtom]

Yes quite. And one of those of course moments when reading it.

I think the US is seriously screwed by their response unfortunately... maybe Trump is gambling on Herd immunity kicking in by November. It could partly in some places hit really bad early on I guess - but it’s such a large country with a diverse geography that it will keep on going...

The herd immunity concept is also slightly unfairly treated in that people look at the average across a country or a city. I’d be really interested to see it’s geography and how spatially and demographically heterogeneous it is. E.G. Making this up - but 18-30 year olds in Hackney for example - there may well be 30+ % who’ve positive antibodies - but middle aged people in Hammersmith May be 5% etc...

This effect can lead to apparent stalling of the virus spread - followed by a spurt if it’s then introduced to the more vulnerable demographic.

[galpinos]

Negative antibody test doesn’t mean you haven’t had it. I can’t remember the exact figures I saw but there is evidence that at 8(?? From memory, don’t quote me) weeks post infection antibody levels drop (or can drop) below the threshold for a positive test.
Whilst this is in no way at all conclusive evidence that immunity is not retained, it is possibly not a great sign.

I’d like to see that evidence as the Roche test, for example, claims only to be accurate after 16 weeks once there are sufficient antibodies.

My wife read the Roche test details before it was rolled out and announced, “they’ll never till it out yet, it’s not ready, those results are bobbins, they’re less real world applicable than my PhD tests”. Guess she was right.

Interestingly, those at her work with a positive antigen test, who tested negative on the Roche test, tested positive on the Abbot study she is on. So there does seem to potentially be a more accurate antibody test out there, but it’s getting properly tested.