[mrjonathanr]

I am not a scientist. maybe one will be along shortly. What I understand is this:

Enzymes are catalysts; they drive reactions. Furin is a common human cell catalyst which changes inactive proteins into a  chemically active form so they can do their jobs.  Uniquely amongst coronaviruses, SARS-Cov2 has 12 bases in its RNA which allow furin to activate the protein which permits the virus to penetrate the host cell membrane. Its presence within the human cell causes the newly replicated virus cells to have that protein already activated, ready to penetrate the membrane of adjacent cells. A bit like a cocked rifle. Lethal.

[tomtom]

And the Commons has voted to end remote proceedings from June 2nd.

https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1263102126755942405?s=21

🤦‍♂️

[mrjonathanr]

Glad to see scientific rigour is making a comeback. Kids need a control group.

[tomtom]

Glad to see scientific rigour is making a comeback. Kids need a control group.

😂 perfect. They all behave like Children....

[SA Chris]

I am not a scientist. maybe one will be along shortly. What I understand is this:

Enzymes are catalysts; they drive reactions. Furin is a common human cell catalyst which changes inactive proteins into a  chemically active form so they can do their jobs.  Uniquely amongst coronaviruses, SARS-Cov2 has 12 bases in its RNA which allow furin to activate the protein which permits the virus to penetrate the host cell membrane. Its presence within the human cell causes the newly replicated virus cells to have that protein already activated, ready to penetrate the membrane of adjacent cells. A bit like a cocked rifle. Lethal.

Thanks, that's the bit I did understand! Not so much a cocked rifle, more like the action on an automatic rifle. The gas from one spent bullet revolves the bolt, and loads the next.

[mrjonathanr]

Cheers, I'm not much of a gun specialist! The key thing, it appears, is furin, which was not coded for in Sars Cov1. It appears it is present in most (all?) human cells and Cov2 being able to use it to penetrate the host cell makes it massively more virulent. Which is why we are where we are now, apparently.

[SA Chris]

It is. I know Trump sounded stupid saying it, but it really is a "clever" virus. As it say, infinite number of monkeys, something was bound to crop up sooner or later.

[tomtom]

As it say, infinite number of monkeys, something was bound to crop up sooner or later.

That’s one way to rationalise Trump being president 😃

[Offwidth]

Interesting. Seems to validate the Quillette piece I shared a couple of months ago which was not received well here?

Same problems then as now. I thought the main criticisms here were of the politics of the publication rather than the article... I've seen some good stuff there but I've seen occasional good stuff even in the Fail and the Excess. Yet the author is a Quillette editor with a right wing 'US style liberal' to libertarian readership, not an expert. He could have invited an epidemiologist to make the points if it's a common scientific view that things are as he says it is. My main criticism would be cherry picking ideas that have some relevance and extrapolating in unfair ways (the article even says the super spreader approach is more useful where the outbreak is broadly under control, not the case in the or US, UK or Canada). There are also some clear errors... the best modern models do include variations in R (including the UK one behind SAGE advice). The data just doesn't match superspeader dominance when the outbreak has taken off in the population (eg those infected nearly always infect their own family)  The Pen y Fan arguments are still wrong in a way that happens to suit libertarian views.

[Offwidth]

It is. I know Trump sounded stupid saying it, but it really is a "clever" virus. As it say, infinite number of monkeys, something was bound to crop up sooner or later.

Evolution favours a virus that has the characteristics that help it spread and mutation is how a virus changes. A low mortality rate and  minor mutation that cuts immune response effectively and a  fast rate of spread is ideal : anything in a range from this to the common cold. Evolution is not intelligence it's a massive radomised experiment, hence why it's sometimes called the Blind Watchmaker.

[Johnny Brown]

The data just doesn't match superspeader dominance when the outbreak has taken off in the population (eg those infected nearly always infect their own family)

That's the opposite of what the article posted (that prompted me to reconsider the Quillette piece) said:

“I don’t think this is quite like SARS or MERS, where we observed very large superspreading clusters,” Leung says. “But we are certainly seeing a lot of concentrated clusters where a small proportion of people are responsible for a large proportion of infections.” But in a recent preprint, Adam Kucharski of LSHTM estimated that k for COVID-19 is as low as 0.1. “Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread,” Kucharski says.

The Pen y Fan arguments are still wrong in a way that happens to suit libertarian views.

No, I think they are right in a way that happens to suit libertarian views. That doesn't make them wrong. What is wrong about the libertarian view is the rush to get people back to work.

A study in Japan found that the risk of infection indoors is almost 19 times higher than outdoors. (Japan, which was hit early but has kept the epidemic under control, has built its COVID-19 strategy explicitly around avoiding clusters, advising citizens to avoid closed spaces and crowded conditions.)

I get that two months ago it was too early to act on this sort of data. However the meantime has only seen those suppositions supported. Walking in the countryside was always low risk, we're just more confident about it now.

[Stu Littlefair]

The data just doesn't match superspeader dominance when the outbreak has taken off in the population (eg those infected nearly always infect their own family)

That’s not true. Secondary attack rate in households is around 15-20% (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20056010v1)

[Offwidth]

Apologies that was me being sloppy. What I meant to say was those infected once the disease had taken off so far seem most likely to have been infected by someone in their household or family (ie not from superspeader events). From that paper:

"Conclusion: SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible in households than SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, and the elderly ≥60 years old are the most vulnerable to household transmission. Case finding and isolation alone may be inadequate to contain the pandemic and need to be used in conjunction with heightened restriction of human movement as implemented in Guangzhou."

The Pen y Fan argument in that Quillette article is still dishonest. I always agreed being outdoors seems to be much lower risk than indoors; but football matches and other crowded outdoor events did track to multiple outbreaks elsewhere, so it is probabilistic and social distancing outdoors is important. Equally some of the office outbreak studies show being quite a bit more than 2m in particular air circulation was not safe. The main problem in Wales was a simple Public Health message was sensibly made to reduce R, with the inevitable contradictions in specific risk scenarios. Arguing about specific risk in such situations is daft.   Most of any real risk was probably due to crowding at car parks, use of local amenities ( shops cafes  toilets ) with infected people being out and not being careful with hygene ior social distancing. All in the context at the time of a really struggling hospital and MRT system. Libertarians don't like such social control and have form on distorting and exaggerating to try and get their own way,  even when in direct contradiction to the best information on Public Health.

[petejh]

Does anyone on here have experience of getting tested without being an essential worker or showing symptoms of covid?
I’m asking for my housemate, whose father died yesterday and they want to go home to be with family members. Family members are suggesting getting tested, to protect elderly mother.
I’ve read the guidelines which say only essential workers and those showing symptoms can get a test.

[Offwidth]

A care worker I know was infected and her colleagues were all  tested (fortunaely all negative) but none of the clients (some did ask). They only just got proper PPE for home visits two weeks ago.

[James Malloch]

Does anyone on here have experience of getting tested without being an essential worker or showing symptoms of covid?
I’m asking for my housemate, whose father died yesterday and they want to go home to be with family members. Family members are suggesting getting tested, to protect elderly mother.
I’ve read the guidelines which say only essential workers and those showing symptoms can get a test.

Sorry for your friends loss, Pete.

I was asked to take a test after reporting some minor symptoms via the COVID symptom tracker app. They had an agreement to refer up to 10k People per day.

They said that you just essentially lie & say you’re a key worker when booking a test - they don’t check at all. I put down that I was a “volunteer”.

I was a bit unsure whether I should go for it or not as I was pretty certain I didn’t have COVID. But given that uptake was massively short of testing capacity at the time & there were loads of slots available at my drive in testing centre (I opted to go an hour after I booked as I figured they probably wouldn’t end up being filled - there were 50+ slots available that day and I knew from local papers not many were being used), I went for it.

I certainly wouldn’t begrudge someone booking a slot under certain circumstances, such as your friends if there was plenty of availability. The drive in centre I went to was empty. I’d not book a home testing kit though as they are in much shorter supply.

I guess you need to consider that it doesn’t guarantee you don’t have it either. There’s false negatives & I think it can take time to come on during which time it doesn’t register on the test (though I could be wrong on that).

I think you can also book private tests but these are c.£400.

[nik at work]

My dad has paid for a private antibody test. Came in the post, cost about £100 I think. He did it as part of a hoop jumping exercise so is unconcerned with the actual reliability of the test, just that he has a result to tick a box.

I have no idea on the sensitivity etc and no further details about the test or whether it would satisfy tour housemates needs. I can find some more details if helpful...

[Sidehaas]

Does anyone on here have experience of getting tested without being an essential worker or showing symptoms of covid?
I’m asking for my housemate, whose father died yesterday and they want to go home to be with family members. Family members are suggesting getting tested, to protect elderly mother.
I’ve read the guidelines which say only essential workers and those showing symptoms can get a test.

I'm fairly sure anyone with symptoms can now request a test (over the age of 5) - you no longer need to be a key worker. This changed a couple of days ago.
If you don't have the classic symptoms, I don't think anyone will actually check.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-getting-tested#who-can-be-tested


My wife was given a test through the same route as James - an offer came out the blue after she reported a couple of days worth of dizziness and tiredness on the app.

[petejh]

Thanks all, I'll investigate getting a test booked via the tracker app.

[Oldmanmatt]

Interesting article:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-blood-test-could-show-how-the-immune-system-responds-to-covid-19-researchers-say-11992553

[Oldmanmatt]

Surviving C19 is now a permanently disqualifying factor for joining the US military.
This seems a little odd.
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/05/06/coronavirus-survivors-banned-from-joining-the-military/

[tomtom]

Just been out with the Family to Delamere.. (forest tracks - bike trails etc...) and it was rammed (like a weekend on a nice day).

Not much social distancing going on along the main paths - especially with large family groups. I hated it.

[ali k]

Just been out with the Family to Delamere.. (forest tracks - bike trails etc...) and it was rammed (like a weekend on a nice day).
Not much social distancing going on along the main paths - especially with large family groups.

It’s fucked tomtom.

I was at Ilkley the other day and it was the same - big groups of lads all congregating, teenage couples snogging (too young to be moved out and living together), extended families nowhere near social distancing. Local Tesco this morning had no queuing system, way too many people in there, a one way route that everyone was ignoring and people bumping into each other - I just walked out. Plumber was round to fix the toilet this morning - no mask, no concern (“It’s all a bit over the top this corona thing isn’t it”), touching everything in sight, had been working all the way through (“I’ll get a bit from the govt but not much cos you know us plumbers we fiddle it don’t we”), admitted to visiting his family regularly.

It’s all just fucked.

[teestub]

Not much social distancing going on along the main paths - especially with large family groups. I hated it.

I’ve been staying away from anywhere I think might be busy so I can just pretend everyone is doing a great job!

[tomtom]

Not much social distancing going on along the main paths - especially with large family groups. I hated it.

I’ve been staying away from anywhere I think might be busy so I can just pretend everyone is doing a great job!

Me too. Thought it would be quiet weekday (half term - but there’s no school so..). Scary.

Lockdown has reinforced my desires to live in the middle of no-where surrounded by no-one...