[Paul B]

Let's not all get too excited about relaxations just yet:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-ready-to-tighten-lockdown-as-coronavirus-cases-climb-again-jgbsl5xp6

[tomtom]

Let's not all get too excited about relaxations just yet:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-ready-to-tighten-lockdown-as-coronavirus-cases-climb-again-jgbsl5xp6

Yeah - reports in other outlets that their R has gone from 0.7 back to 1.0 so relaxations may not come soon...

I had a zoom with a Spanish PhD student of mine (nr Madrid) today and it’s worth remembering that the relaxations there mean he’s only just left his flat for the first time in near 8 weeks. People were completely locked down there... so they’re relaxing their lockdown to something still stricter than ours!

[stone]

Let's not all get too excited about relaxations just yet:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-ready-to-tighten-lockdown-as-coronavirus-cases-climb-again-jgbsl5xp6

Yeah - reports in other outlets that their R has gone from 0.7 back to 1.0 so relaxations may not come soon...

I had a zoom with a Spanish PhD student of mine (nr Madrid) today and it’s worth remembering that the relaxations there mean he’s only just left his flat for the first time in near 8 weeks. People were completely locked down there... so they’re relaxing their lockdown to something still stricter than ours!

Yet even in Spain they have been going out to the supermarkets all the way through. I'm baffled as to why shopping for food isn't something that gets sorted out anywhere. Perhaps I'm wrong but I find it hard to understand why that isn't the weakest link where transmission is actually occurring. In the general scheme of things, food deliveries don't seem too much of a challenge to me. Just assign each street a delivery slot and a supermarket and do it like bin collections. If people don't or can't order online; just give those people a standardised food-box; perhaps even with some alcohol and cigarettes in so that no-one feels they need to go to the shops.

[Murph]

Stone - I think that's pretty much what they did in wuhan.

[Oldmanmatt]

Let's not all get too excited about relaxations just yet:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-ready-to-tighten-lockdown-as-coronavirus-cases-climb-again-jgbsl5xp6

Yeah - reports in other outlets that their R has gone from 0.7 back to 1.0 so relaxations may not come soon...

I had a zoom with a Spanish PhD student of mine (nr Madrid) today and it’s worth remembering that the relaxations there mean he’s only just left his flat for the first time in near 8 weeks. People were completely locked down there... so they’re relaxing their lockdown to something still stricter than ours!

Yet even in Spain they have been going out to the supermarkets all the way through. I'm baffled as to why shopping for food isn't something that gets sorted out anywhere. Perhaps I'm wrong but I find it hard to understand why that isn't the weakest link where transmission is actually occurring. In the general scheme of things, food deliveries don't seem too much of a challenge to me. Just assign each street a delivery slot and a supermarket and do it like bin collections. If people don't or can't order online; just give those people a standardised food-box; perhaps even with some alcohol and cigarettes in so that no-one feels they need to go to the shops.

You do realise, that in this country, in some areas, they cannot even manage bin collection more than once in three weeks?

I read a German study, that was unable to detect traces of the virus, on any surface, at any publicly used location (supermarkets etc) in the most severe hot spot in Germany. That’s part of the logic behind the Europe wide “Climbing gym reopening plans” that are being developed.

If I get time later I will try and go back through the discussions and find the links, but overall, I think the Germans are convinced it’s not generally a surface contact spread, that even passing aerosol is unlikely and being too close to people is the problem.

It would be nice, if that were true, wouldn’t it, because that’s manageable; even as a long term behavioural change.

My hopeful guess is, that since supermarket access has been a common concession across the European lockdowns, yet r0 has been drastically impacted, there is a strong argument for the above. If I look at my home town, 170k people are using ~8 supermarkets, delivery or click and collect slots are rocking-horse shit rare; yet the entire county is down to 199 confirmed cases and the admissions have slowed to a trickle.

I have added finger crossing to my hang board routine.

[tomtom]

If it’s not on surfaces and hard to catch via aerosols.... errr...  Pandemic how?

Btw - my local Tesco has double/trebled the size of the click and collect operation. Three bays and a big refrigerated container next to the usual cabin for the extra cold stuff. I’ve managed to get a slot every week. Just check once or twice a day.

[Oldmanmatt]

If it’s not on surfaces and hard to catch via aerosols.... errr...  Pandemic how?

Btw - my local Tesco has double/trebled the size of the click and collect operation. Three bays and a big refrigerated container next to the usual cabin for the extra cold stuff. I’ve managed to get a slot every week. Just check once or twice a day.

I didn’t say it’s not aerosol.

I said the German thinking was that it is not spreading by traveling large distances by aerosol, nor living on surfaces (outside the lab) for significant times. Physical contact and close proximity aerosol are the more likely culprits. Don’t put words in my mouth TT. I also stated it was speculation.

I’m glad your local Tesco has increased their click and collect slots, however, here, we’re still looking at more than 10 days to get a slot for C&C and delivery is for vulnerable households only.

So, since we are seeing hundreds entering supermarkets here, daily, and masks are still very much a rarity; yet we know we had a large number of local infections five weeks ago and now few admissions, we must have reduced transmission in the community significantly below1. The queues at Sainsbury’s wrap around the car park.

If the horror scenario of that (very pretty) animation of particles spreading out across multiple aisles at the slightest cough, were even half as potent as suggested; then supermarket use would be impossible to reconcile with a reduction r0.

[SA Chris]

In the general scheme of things, food deliveries don't seem too much of a challenge to me. Just assign each street a delivery slot and a supermarket and do it like bin collections. If people don't or can't order online; just give those people a standardised food-box; perhaps even with some alcohol and cigarettes in so that no-one feels they need to go to the shops.

Fine for suburbia, but imagine trying to do it in tower blocks?

We stopped by out local Tesco after the family walk, so wife could go in and grab a few essentials. I sat outside with the kids on the grass. Watched one guy come out with a bunch of flowers and a card, saw another come out with a packet of sweets and one pizza, followed by toddler daughter. They both got in the car where his wife was waiting for them......

[mrjonathanr]

You're thinking Dominos should be included in the Tesco delivery round, right?

[tomtom]

Wasn’t having a go OMM - just that if it’s only passable by really close proximity aerosol - how come it’s spread so rapidly around the world?

Re click and collect slots - They’re never more than a few days in advance often only the next day. And seem to be released at random during the day...

Anyway. Congrats and all that to the PM. Not the best timing though...

[T_B]

The supermarket thing annoys me. People say it’s too hard but there are loads of local suppliers around, often without a website but who’ve set up on social media and deliver. Even if you live in the countryside that tends to be where farms are located. Wholesalers are supplying the general public as all the restaurants/ pubs are closed and they do click and collect. Not everything is sold in bulk.

It’s just too much hassle for most people and granted it can cost you more. I’m about to go to Tesco for the first time in 5 weeks (click n collect slot secured at 2am #lookatme) as I’ve always assumed rightly or wrongly that supermarkets are the greatest risk of transmission given I don’t go into any other building.

[Falling Down]

I'm working with the two biggest supermarkets, one national home/DIY store and the two biggest coffee chains (both currently closed) either directly on or close to the various lock down and CV-19 response projects.  It's not as easy as it looks from the outside to suddenly scale up home deliveries, click 'n collect and in-store measures at a national level.  They're getting there (slowly) and are thinking carefully about how to keep shoppers and staff safe if and when lockdown measures are lifted.  A lot of the office staff at the two supermarkets are working shifts in warehouses and shops to keep the wheels turning.  I'm not defending anything mind, just saying that it's pretty complicated and it is interesting seeing it all from the inside.  Dave Lewis (Tesco CEO) was saying yesterday that people are pretty much reverting to one big weekly shop that's helping keep numbers manageable.

I've been buying locally though.  There are a few wholesalers that normally supply pubs and restaurants that are doing home deliveries of veg boxes and other produce and we have lots of small shops nearby largely run by the Asian, Caribbean and North African community with lots of fresh goods.  I'm fortunate to be in the city though. I was asking my mate who lives in Whaley what it's like with only one massive Tesco, a greengrocer and butcher for what must be a circa 10k population and he's having to go to Tesco once or twice a week.

[SA Chris]

We're using a weekly / bi weekly click and collect (fortunately a largeish bit not overburdened ASDA nearby) plus using as much local companies as we can (milk, fruit and veg, meat) but having to use local Tesco occasionally to grab a few things either out of stock, or overlooked in meal planning).

[mrjonathanr]

Local is good, village butcher takes online orders then assigns a slot to come to pick up from the shop, so just a set of clean counters and sealed bags with your order in now. Works well

[tomtom]

Mundane suburban lockdown life alert:

I’ve also been getting a fruit, veg and meat box (local meat and dairy - veg is just general) - then topping that up with a Tesco shop as required.

Quality of Meat and veg much better from the box - and I quite like it’s different each week (turkey thighs and a couple of small rump steaks this week! And some beetroot - that I’m going to have to think about!).

We’re also generating c.60% of our usual black bin non recyclable waste over the last few weeks. I didn’t expect that.

I’m off the pop but our neighbours are having to use other people’s glass recycling bins as they’re boozing a lot more - one neighbour called his the conscience bin. Another commented he was moving to cans instead of bottles to make it look better.

[mrjonathanr]

Single malt's the way to go.

[Oldmanmatt]

Single malt's the way to go.

If you’re still filling the recycle bin after the switch, get help.

[teestub]

And some beetroot - that I’m going to have to think about!).

Roast it like spuds and have it with your steaks 👌

[stone]

I know it would be neigh on impossible to ramp up normal supermarket deliveries to meet all demand. However a one-street-one-time-slot-one-supermarket approach would make massively better use of the vans than having them bimble around. Not to mention that apparently lots of time slots have been left unused because people have booked weeks in advance and then canceled at the last minute. With supermarkets shut, all the staff would be free to do the deliveries.

I just now heard someone from our lab at University of Sheffield has just come down with COVID19. She lives on her own and apparently has only been out to go to the supermarket.

What we do in Europe gets R down from 2.5 to 0.8 or something. It would be utterly transformative if we had a month or two of R=0.1. I'd be up for quite an effort to do that.

[stone]

Also no one has said COVID19 spreads very easily. It's not like measles which has R0=20 I heard. Nevertheless with R>1, COVID19 evidently causes hassle.

[SA Chris]

Quality of Meat and veg much better from the box - and I quite like it’s different each week (turkey thighs and a couple of small rump steaks this week!

Plus there is no choice of low fat options from ours, the burgers we got tasted amazing!

[stone]

And some beetroot - that I’m going to have to think about!).

Roast it like spuds and have it with your steaks 👌

I'm a fan of borscht.

Also of hot beetroots in a white cheese sauce (ie like cauliflower cheese).

This is a bit off topic I guess.

[stone]

And some beetroot - that I’m going to have to think about!).

Roast it like spuds and have it with your steaks 👌

I'm a fan of borscht.

Also of hot beetroots in a white cheese sort (ie like cauliflower cheese).

This is a bit off topic I guess.

white cheese sauce -sorry for typo

[rich d]

Haven't residents in care homes to an extent been some of the most heavily locked down individuals around? Yet care homes have had large infection rates (and obviously and tragically high number of deaths), seems to me that if care homes can have huge number of infections with no visitors apart from staff and no residents leaving the premises that lockdown as a strategy is bollocks.

[Muenchener]

I read a German study, that was unable to detect traces of the virus, on any surface, at any publicly used location (supermarkets etc) in the most severe hot spot in Germany. That’s part of the logic behind the Europe wide “Climbing gym reopening plans” that are being developed.

If I get time later I will try and go back through the discussions and find the links

Would certainly appreciate the German no-surface-infection link.

The general manager of my main local wall is co-author of one of the reopening papers. Amusingly to me & my mates, since we are all too well aware that he knows absolutely nothing about how to prevent overcrowded climbing walls