[Duma]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

This is interesting, and seems well reasoned and based on sound assumptions

[BrutusTheBear]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

This is interesting, and seems well reasoned and based on sound assumptions

Yup, shared that on previous page.

Further to North Devon Hospital being fucked, it now appear that second home owners and convoys of caravans are heading this way. Campsites have not been instructed to close and it would appear that people think they can come here to isolate themselves from the issue in more built up areas and take in the holidays vibes whilst doing so.  So they’re potentially bringing the virus with them and so furthering the pressure on the hospital.  Locals are sharpening pitch forks as I speak.  There is talk of blockading the link road..  Seriously grockles, just fuck off it ain’t holiday season..

[seankenny]

I think the virus is beginning to really rip through London and I guess other major cities can’t be too far behind.

If crowds are leaving this weekend it’s almost certain some of them will be bringing you a nasty little present.

As an aside, it’s pretty grim to have even some of the symptoms. Not sure why you’d want to go through that in a camper van on a campsite. Fuck that.

[BrutusTheBear]

For sure...  they’ve missed a trick closing hotels but not holiday parks

[tomtom]

National trust has announced its closing all its parks, gardens, houses, everything from tonight.

It all feels like too little too late... our number of dead is rising at near the same as Italy two weeks ago.

[teestub]

UK: 5000 cases total, 1000 of those today...

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

[205Chris]

Still some way to go with UK measures......

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM&feature=youtu.be

[TobyD]

It's strange to reflect that whatever you felt about Brexit, how massively insignificant it now seems. Along with pretty much everything else. Now I'm just hoping that at some point in the next year or two, we get this under control, and friends and family stay healthy and alive.

[Will Hunt]

The guidance documents on .gov.uk bug me hugely. You can tell they've been written by scientists. There's some background, a preamble, and then you eventually get to some bullet points (not highlighted in any way) which tell you what you should and shouldn't do.

Part of my job is reading and interpreting and sometimes arguing with government department guidance and I feel fine reading this stuff, but fuck me, the average Joe Punter is going to switch off after sentence one, or more likely just be overfaced and not even start. And the daily lectern ramblings aren't exactly concise. Why is there nobody in government able to give a clear message beyond "wash your hands and stay away from old people"?

[tomtom]

Sorry - You’d lost me at the second sentence 😂

[mrjonathanr]

That study on how long the virus survives did not address the two I’d like to know: plastic and glass.
Or handles and grubby touch  screens, to be more precise

[SA Chris]

It all feels like too little too late... our number of dead is rising at near the same as Italy two weeks ago.

I think we've just overtaken it.

[tomtom]

No daily briefing from Team Boris today.

But an address to the nation later. My money is on a lockdown (Shirley? Been on the cards for a while)

[James Malloch]

No daily briefing from Team Boris today.

But an address to the nation later. My money is on a lockdown (Shirley? Been on the cards for a while)

Any idea what a lockdown could mean?

We live on a boat and need to move semi-regularly to empty the toilet.

We have an offer of a house from my sister who has an empty one after moving. But it would mean a few trips to move (it's got no furniture) from Leeds to Cumbria.

We're weighing up whether to go now as whilst small, the boat is home. But also don't think we could be locked in here indefinitely.

Not quite sure what lockdown would really mean

Edit - moving would become essential if we get stuck here with no access to toilet etc.

[tomtom]

Dunno James.

Germany have a decent idea with no gatherings of more than 2 people...

In Spain/France you need to fill in an online form print it and take it out with you.

Lots of unknowns about all This.

Meanwhile in our road - where 3/10 houses have/are being affected tales are coming out. Those who started with ‘like a cold’ are now saying ‘never felt so tired’, the 35 yo man training to run a marathon (upnto 20k so far) described it as having 3 days where someone heavy was sitting on his chest (he’s now knackered still taking the dog for a potter)... also one with mild symptoms but no taste/smell (which is also a common one it appears).

What’s VERY noticeable from the houses in quarantine (we’re all terraces) are how little noise or activity there is. None of the normal waving out the window - or seeing people being about. They’re all sleeping lots and really tired.

7 colleagues/friends of my wife have it. NCT dads dad is in ICU with it (not looking good) . Dunno what it’s like your way but S.Manchester seems riddled - and it wouldn’t surprise me if several hundred thousand have it.

[James Malloch]

Cheers TT - hopefully any rules mean we would still be able to travel if needed. Either that or we pack up and head off tomorrow... Wouldn’t be seeing anyone & would continue isolation upon moving into the house. It’s just the actual move I’m unsure of.

I’m in central Leeds & haven’t heard anything about it other than the newspaper positive count (29 as of yesterday). We’re basically locking ourselves away and going for a few little walks each day now (other than fieldwork yesterday (super remote)). Not sure if it’s useful that we live on some pontoons so no one really passes us other than the small community of us who live here. Quite a few at risk neighbours so everyone is (quite rightly) fairly paranoid.

It’s scary to hear local stories of it like yours. Especially fit and healthy people who are being impacted in a big way. Hope you and your family can keep safe.

Going to be a hell of a year... Doubt we’ll have a wedding going ahead now, doesn’t seem worth the risk. Anything to help keep the ICU’s free.

Can’t help thinking about those in the NHS who are going to be scarred & exhausted for the foreseeable. Such a shit time.

[mrjonathanr]

Hi tt, I also know a few with ‘bad flu’ who seem to be hibernating but not sure you can really say that people ‘have it’ unless hospitalised and tested.

[seankenny]

Meanwhile in our road - where 3/10 houses have/are being affected tales are coming out. Those who started with ‘like a cold’ are now saying ‘never felt so tired’, the 35 yo man training to run a marathon (upnto 20k so far) described it as having 3 days where someone heavy was sitting on his chest (he’s now knackered still taking the dog for a potter)... also one with mild symptoms but no taste/smell (which is also a common one it appears).

What’s VERY noticeable from the houses in quarantine (we’re all terraces) are how little noise or activity there is. None of the normal waving out the window - or seeing people being about. They’re all sleeping lots and really tired.

One of my friends at university returned home to Germany, got ill and tested positive. I've been in several classes with her so given that my symptoms fit well, I'm assuming I've had it.

Clearly some people get away with very few symptoms but it can be really quite debilitating. I have been extremely tired, today for the first time in nearly a week I've not needed an afternoon sleep, but I haven't left the sofa. Social distancing is absolutely no problem as I don't have any interest in leaving the house.

I'm not saying this to garner sympathy, just to give anyone reading it an idea of what you might get. You've something in you that, until December, had only ever lived in bats and pigs... 

[Falling Down]

Glad you're on the mend Sean.  I'm still getting afternoon tiredness and had to have a nap today even though I'm now free of other symptoms - although I do seem to have the odd couple of hours where I get tired and cough every other day. 

It's alarming that you, me and Duncan have all been poorly so that's a pretty high % of UKB'ers in London.

[tomtom]

It's alarming that you, me and Duncan have all been poorly so that's a pretty high % of UKB'ers in London.

I suspect our testing regime is massively under reporting cases. I’ve had an email exchange with a German colleague - and he things the German figures are closer to the actual number than the uk ones. We have a mortality rate of 5% (or more) based on the figures - but in developed countries it’s estimated to be 0.5-1% - hence the common reasoning. That 10 times trust number in the Uk have or have had it.

The antibody test to see if you have had it will become super important as a test whether you can return to normal life etc...

[petejh]

The gov scientists have mentioned a few times in the briefings that the infections *are* - not might be - 10 times the reported cases.

I'll be interested to see the stats when this is over for the correlation between areas of high air pollution and severe covid cases. Hopefully will help accelerate the rollout of electric and the outlawing of diesel in cities.
Great before/during maps of China, Italy, S.Korea and UK showing levels of particulate matter: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/23/coronavirus-pandemic-leading-to-huge-drop-in-air-pollution

[mrjonathanr]

Good point, but won’t poor air quality typically correlate with high population density too?

[Fultonius]

That article on Medium seemed to think it was around "reported cases x 20" for the true number, or "deaths x 600".

For the UK, that would mean somewhere in the of 6650 x 20, or 335 x 600 = 130k to 200k cases. We're doing a lot less testing than a lot of countries.

[bigironhorse]

I haven't be keep a super close eye on this thread so this might have been posted already. Pretty interesting graphs and charts tracking the virus:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[mrjonathanr]

There is a problem with not testing insofar as someone who has been ill may believe they have had *it* and act as if they cannot then catch it again and infect someone, when in fact they have had another illness, thus accelerating the epidemic.

Guardian: Should someone behave differently if they think, but don’t know for certain, that they have already had it?

Buchholz: We all have to be role models. If we’re all in it together, we all should be doing social distancing.

Hillman: Since there’s no real way to know at this point who might have had it, unless you’re symptomatic, you get a swab and are definitively diagnosed with it, I would just act as if you hadn’t had it. Keep doing all of those things that we all should be doing at this point: social distancing and hand hygiene.

From the Guardian interview with Dr David Buchholz, senior founding medical director, primary care, assistant professor of pediatrics, Columbia University Irving Medical Center and Dr William Hillmann, associate inpatient physician director at Massachusetts general hospital.