[spidermonkey09]

Yes there are some very disturbing threads kicking around on Twitter that paint quite a different picture to how the virus has been reported elsewhere. Obviously fingers crossed the UK doesn't end up in that boat...

[Duma]

Apparently there's two schools from Gloucestershire that went on a skiing trip to piedmont on the 6th march. What were they thinking?

[Bradders]

Bradders - I think my colleague in the office next door who has had pneumonia twice in the last year (and still had a hacking cough), my PHD student with immune deficiency  staying away is very sensible behaviour. 

Not a snowflake. Whatever that horrible term means.

Sorry sarcasm isn't as easily transmitted as CV-19 apparently

You made it sound like people are being given complete license to stop coming to work just because they're nervous about the situation, as opposed to genuinely vulnerable people having a sensible discussion with their line management and deciding on appropriate precautions; which is a very different thing.

Seriously, I suspect that in the end this will impact a relatively small proportion of the population in terms of people who actually get it, and an even smaller number who genuinely suffer from it. We're still only talking about a few hundred people so far; and whatever it is, it's not the plague! The wide reaching impact which will be felt by everyone, and has already arrived to a certain extent, will be from fear and the irrational actions it drives. The more scared people are the more businesses will go bust, jobs will be lost, and the greater the likelihood of a recession which itself is a cause of death!

On that basis, I think it's fair to follow the current advice, which is wash your hands, don't do anything stupid and crack on!

Yes there are some very disturbing threads kicking around on Twitter that paint quite a different picture to how the virus has been reported elsewhere. Obviously fingers crossed the UK doesn't end up in that boat...

And are we really getting our news from Twitter now?! Again, this is scare-mongering and is only making it worse.

[tomtom]

Just had a facetime chat with a colleague/friend/coworker in Australia. Judging by what he said they're at the state we were about 2-3 weeks ago... He seemed really surprised that business travel had been cut - and other similar home working measures etc..

He is in Darwin though - which has one case. And takes at least 4 hours to fly to from anywhere else - or 2 days to drive to from anywhere with more than one shop

[tomtom]

You made it sound like people are being given complete license to stop coming to work just because they're nervous about the situation, as opposed to genuinely vulnerable people having a sensible discussion with their line management and deciding on appropriate precautions; which is a very different thing.

I think to a degree they are given that licence. TBH, pretty much all of my job at the moment could be done remotely - I gave three lectures yesterday that were recorded - and could have been delivered in that way - though its better in person. As an academic, I feel almost like I'm self employed in many ways (might sound strange but thats how if feels to a large degree). That announcement was given in the context that any concerns about coming in should talk to their line manager about it - but that the balance of judgement would be towards those not wanting to come in.

[tomtom]

A longer post - on a different point. I've had a few conversations and been mulling the following over the last few days....

We don't know how this is all going to pan out at the moment (for the better or for the worse) - but I hope some positives will come from this too. These include:

1. Changing the 9-5 in the office work ethic - and making homeworking and remote working more the norm than the exception. I hope and suspect that many changes in the workplace that are happening right now because of CV19 will lead to a long lasting shift in this. Of course many jobs require a workplace - but many in our largely service driven economy do not - and I hope this can show that people can carry on doing whatever spreadsheet shuffling they may do equally as well at home as at work.

2. Putting a dent in our short haul flight addiction. Maybe less optimism for this - folk may well return to business as usual once this changes. But - with the travel restrictions and downturn in flying I hope people start to realise that they don't need to have five europe mini breaks a year and can have just as relaxing/equivalent break closer to home (with less emissions required...). There are lots of positives in terms of widening peoples perspectives and breaking down cultural barriers of going to lots of places - but I can't help but think we do too much of it.

3. A slower pace of life. Already (from my observations) the roads and public transport are noticably quieter... Not so much self quarantine, but people making concious decisions to go out less, spending more time at home etc.. are these necessarily bad things? (thuogh it may just lead to Netflix dependancy issues :D )

4. If we do less - will we consume less - and leading to a wider point does this mean less of an emphasis on the growth growth growth economic model that the world seems to have subscribed to? I doubt CV19 will stop this - but maybe putting a dent in it and slowing things down globally isnt such a bad thing... (I await someone with stocks and shares pension/isa/savings to come back at me otherwise with this..)

Anyway - just some general musings about how it may change the world we live in - possibly in some positive ways. None of the above is evidence based

[SA Chris]

Mine will be hanging on to office based staff until the government forces their hand at gunpoint...

Surely companies have a duty of care to their employees? Could people make claim if they became ill at work if they hadn't been given the option of staying away?

[Offwidth]

More on Italy.... given numbers are still doubling every 3 days or so in the most affected countries, imagine where Italy might be with just one more week like this. A massive problem will be incresed risk of infecting health staff as they run out of isolated facility and all involved may have problems  with access to protective equipment. China showed young unprotected doctors can die due to high initial virus load.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/10/italian-doctors-forced-choose-save-coronavirus-12377883/?ico=pushly-notifcation-small&utm_source=pushly

I'm simply gobsmacked some here are still saying most of us will be OK, in this context of a modern health system crumbling with mortal consequences. Someone asked about ISAs .... mine won't be doing at all well but stuff that. I have friends in the NHS and (as a couple) 4 parents in the very high risk group that I'm much more worried about.

Over 1000 cases in the US now (and they have had testing issues so won't be as accurate as the European test numbers)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[abarro81]

I'm simply gobsmacked some here are still saying most of us will be OK,

Surely most of us will be ok, physically. But it wouldn't surprise me if most of us end up knowing someone who gets killed by it (parents/in-laws, aunts, uncles, friends' parents etc.)

[Johnny Brown]

And are we really getting our news from Twitter now?!

Seriously? I've been getting all my news from Twitter for years now, and so it seems do most of the world's top journalists. Are you confusing it with Facebook or something?

[tomtom]

THIS: is a great graphic/stats of UK cases.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

Updated regularly by Public health egnland I think,,



This is good too... for european comparisons. Normalised (ish) for time.. We're below the italian curve - but only a week or two from the exponential growth (that Italy is now seeing..)

[sheavi]

Joe Rogans latest podcast - worth a listen



Blurp - Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota.

[tomtom]

Surely a clear desk would help minimise the spread :D

[Offwidth]

And are we really getting our news from Twitter now?!

Seriously? I've been getting all my news from Twitter for years now, and so it seems do most of the world's top journalists. Are you confusing it with Facebook or something?

Plus the person posting is a doctor from a hospitial on the verge of collapse under the pressure.

In answer to Ru's qustion I'm gobsmacked people seem to be missing the real problems. I'm little concerned with those who will be OK, I'm very concerned with what looks now like hundreds or thousands in the UK and tens if not hundreds of thousands elsewhere who will not, and how health systems will cope (like the NHS, if we follow the pattern and face the same issues as Italy in 2 weeks) . Imagine the impact of no functionall secondary health system (hospitals) on everything else, let alone on the 'too many' serious coronavirus victims. People need to take this very seriously without panic and try to do all they can to stop infection spreading.

[sxrxg]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-51826295

Anyone booking trips for Easter (or later in the year) might want to consider that sportscover direct are no longer covering coronovirus related claims. Sure other insurance providers will be implementing similar clauses as well...

[Johnny Brown]

Good piece with lots of stats on why lockdowns work:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[Footwork]

And are we really getting our news from Twitter now?!

Seriously? I've been getting all my news from Twitter for years now, and so it seems do most of the world's top journalists. Are you confusing it with Facebook or something?

Plus the person posting is a doctor from a hospitial on the verge of collapse under the pressure.

In answer to Ru's qustion I'm gobsmacked people seem to be missing the real problems. I'm little concerned with those who will be OK, I'm very concerned with what looks now like hundreds or thousands in the UK and tens if not hundreds of thousands elsewhere who will not, and how health systems will cope (like the NHS, if we follow the pattern and face the same issues as Italy in 2 weeks) . Imagine the impact of no functionall secondary health system (hospitals) on everything else, let alone on the 'too many' serious coronavirus victims. People need to take this very seriously without panic and try to do all they can to stop infection spreading.

Agreed. It's pretty certain that all elective and non-emergency hospital appointments are going to be cancelled for an untold period when this shit gets really bad. The situation in Italy sounds grim, no care if you're over 65 or if you have pre-existing health conditions.

I'd believe doctors on twitter over our government/ BBC any day.

[AMorris]

Myself and a group of mates have a trip to font booked next month... I am preparing for a late cancellation. Ideally we would get there and a 2 month lockdown is called.

There has been a case in Shrewsbury now, which means it has a direct train to Aber. Hopefully the wankness of travel Cymru means it will get stuck in Machynlleth like everyone else.

[galpinos]

Agreed. It's pretty certain that all elective and non-emergency hospital appointments are going to be cancelled for an untold period when this shit gets really bad.

They already are. My wife in cancelling clinics/consultations (and assuming her own op will be cancelled on the 25th) but she does work with immunocompromised patients with respiratory issue, i.e. lung cancer patients. She is fully expecting to lose patients because of this.

[SA Chris]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-51823338

Getting close to home.

[tk421a]

Here's my take - my wife's an infectious disease registrar at a regional centre. We've been discussing:

- Us staying at separate houses to reduce the chance of me getting it if she starts treating patients. Not visiting parents for Mothers' Day
- Seriously considering asking our parents to self-isolate starting in the next few days. My parents are retired, hers are not, so would be relatively easy for my parents to do.
- Expecting that travel on a trip booked to Australia (family wedding + climbing trip beforehand), flying end of March and mid April will be cancelled
- Snowcard are still taking on policies and will cover COVID-19 cancellations due to FCO changing travel advice. I've purchased a policy today after calling to confirm (was on my to do list for last 2 weeks). Hotels are cancellable and Qantas would likely cancel flights so I could just cancel the policy in 14 days if required.
- We did a big shop a couple weeks back, on the assumption that we'd eat the food anyways over time. Probably ok for a couple weeks if required.
- My workplace are finding it hard to get stock of basic cleaning supplies. We have enough for a while.

We very possibly are in the calm before the storm. Who knows what will happen!
P.s. it's really easy to hand wash regularly, it's really hard to not touch your own face so regularly!

[gme]

Does anyone know if this is going to increase the deaths from flu in the UK or will coronavirus just take a load of people out who had a good chance of going from normal flu and the rates of that drop.

I think 10000 - 15000 people are killed by flu in Uk every year, surely coronavirus will mainly take a big chunk of this group and not a group on top of this.

[Johnny Brown]

Have a read of what's going on in Italy Gav. It's on top. Why would people stop getting normal flu? Plus once the hospitals are full, people start dying who wouldn't have.

[abarro81]

Why would people stop getting normal flu?

Bluntly, the answer would be "because those who would have died from normal flu are already dead".
Note: not trying to answer the original question, because I don't know the answer, but it would be logical to suspect that flu-related deaths might well drop slightly, although that drop might be as likely to come post-COVID-19 as during the actual crisis. That said, as you point out, impact on care probably offsets any reduction on flu deaths by meaning that people who would normally recover from it may be more likely to die.

[Johnny Brown]

I suppose, however in Italy it's pretty clear that number will be far exceeded by those dying of any cause due to lack of critical care due to service overload.