Quote from: shark on September 28, 2022, 05:32:35 pmStarmer pushing to recall parliament. https://news.sky.com/story/amp/keir-starmer-calls-for-recall-of-parliament-over-economic-crisis-12706923Fuck me, if Shark is reading the non-climbing threads on this forum then we must be completely shafted!
Starmer pushing to recall parliament. https://news.sky.com/story/amp/keir-starmer-calls-for-recall-of-parliament-over-economic-crisis-12706923
The impression I was getting from earlier this thread was that there were UKB'ers who could see the sanity in this budget?I asked earlier how a corporation tax cut of 0% is meant to cause a quadrupling of growth to 2.5%? Especially in the teeth of a global downturn? Er...Will borrowing-to-invest in tax cuts for the top few % do it? Not according to the marxists. Sorry, markets who due to this now charge us more to borrow than Italy and Greece. The answer apparently must lie in "supply side reforms" and "spending restraint". For that code please read dispensing with planning regs and increasing immigration, amongst other things, for the first. These are not popular with the Tories' own voters. To say the least. For the second read public sector pay freezes, funding cuts etc. This is not popular with anyone after a decade of austerity and the current rate of inflation. If they do survive the current market turmoil then the "big reveal" of all this stuff will be the end of them.
If these changes had been made in 2019 after the Conservatives won the election, there would be a hell of a lot less fuss than there is now.
And they've refused to let their accountant look at the plan.
The big problem with the way they've done it is they've at the same time stuck all the energy bills on a credit card, are still paying off last year's debt after a bout of sickness meant they had to hire more temp staff, and are doing it in the middle of a recession / cost of living crisis when fewer people have money spare. And they've refused to let their accountant look at the plan. All of which makes it less likely they'll be able to pay the money back, meaning they're charged a higher rate to borrow it.
I’m not clear whether the OBR where muzzled or hadn’t time to pass an opinion but either way it clearly looked reckless without some independent judgement to back it up which was a communication disaster.
Wonder how close we came today to our pensions being worthless? Absolute madness.
Quote from: Bradders on September 28, 2022, 09:04:39 pmAnd they've refused to let their accountant look at the plan.That seems to be key to the loss in confidence of the currency and bond market.
And if it's principally a communications disaster then why aren't they fixing that by getting out in front of a camera and communicating?
Quote from: Bradders on September 28, 2022, 09:04:39 pmThe big problem with the way they've done it is they've at the same time stuck all the energy bills on a credit card, are still paying off last year's debt after a bout of sickness meant they had to hire more temp staff, and are doing it in the middle of a recession / cost of living crisis when fewer people have money spare. And they've refused to let their accountant look at the plan. All of which makes it less likely they'll be able to pay the money back, meaning they're charged a higher rate to borrow it. I don't understand how you can write this and then question why people are calling it insane. Yes its a strong word but as you have just pointed out their actions would hardly be characterised as sane either.
Quote from: Bradders on September 28, 2022, 09:04:39 pmIf these changes had been made in 2019 after the Conservatives won the election, there would be a hell of a lot less fuss than there is now.Apart from it basically setting fire to the 2019 manifesto on which they had just been elected of course?
Quote from: andy popp on September 29, 2022, 05:46:17 amAnd if it's principally a communications disaster then why aren't they fixing that by getting out in front of a camera and communicating?I think it's clear that Truss doesn't feel able to stand up to rigorous interview on this. She's interviewing on local radio this morning while Chris Philp does the Today programme.
The impression I was getting from earlier this thread was that there were UKB'ers who could see the sanity in this budget?
The markets will be the judge of that, starting on Friday. But rockets of economic growth are not expected in the skies above any western country this year or next. The Fed has basically told everyone, without telling everyone, that it expects the US to enter recession imminently. The EU and UK likewise. It’s just a matter of time. ...Agree with you that Truss’s policies seem destined to crash into the wall of economic reality. But Kwasi’s Kwartang's an intelligent bloke, maybe he’ll pull a rabbit out the hat.
Truss is gambling that her policies will spark growth*. The question I think is timescale - because due to forces larger than any government policy there is going to be very little if any growth for the UK, EU or the US for the next 6 months, and possibly the next 12-24 months. We may tip into a severe recession depending on how events play out, but definitely a mild recession. Will she manage to face down the naysayers while we're in a recession? She'll need to if she wants to give her policies time to create conditions of growth, that's if they actually do work.
But with the caveat that nobody knows what's going to happen least of all me, I'll be surprised if this government manage to carry out this set of policies. My guess is market sentiment is going to stop them before they get started. Maybe leading to yet another vote of no confidence, the shortest serving PM ever, and the end of this tory government's term?
Still think the markets will puke so much next week that it gets shelved.
I’m in the middle ground on the budget announcement, some of it seems logical, some it seems risky, some of it seems plain illogical such as the stamp duty cut not just being confined to first time buyers. Instead giving BTL landlords and people wanting to buy second homes more margin, this will take house prices further out of reach in a market with house price to wage ratio that’s already too far out of reach for far too many. It appears to me designed to further kill hopes of home buying. Alternatively, they were concerned about heading off an imminent house price crash which some have predicted. Dunno. I still expect the markets to kill this government unless Kwartang and Truss can privately quickly convince them to have confidence in the plan.
Your appeal to 'this is insanity' might be popular, but it isn't factual.
There are sane policies in the budget as Mark Carney acknowledged this morning if you listened to his whole interview. What isn't wise is the timing, the communication and the oversight. Your appeal to 'this is insanity' might be popular, but it isn't factual. Kwartang and Truss's bigger-picture market timing, their gauging of how market sentiment would react, their communication to markets and the public and their failure to back up the figures with OBR overview were all very shoddy and appear politically suicidal very high risk.This was my early impression last week